Can't do without a bit of Syria. Tradition. Continue discussing conflicts in third world shitholes. The hot topic these days is Ukraine however.
Situation after way over a month is unsure. Russian had obvious results in the map painting department, but about how each militaries are doing the intel is unreliable. In the north changes seem to happen, previously Russian occupied settlements now under Ukrainian control again. Russians said they are withdrawing troops, Ukrainians said they're just regrouping for another attack. In the south Russians reached the Dniepr from Crimea and pushed to the east reaching Donbas, Mariupol is surrounded but not surrendered yet. Most of Luhanks oblast seems to be occupied. Clashes were had to the west over the Dnieper, up to Mykolaev and Krivoy Rog. Lots of fighting were done at Sumy and Kharkov. I think now an operational pause is going on.
Now on this livemap I see many air raid sirens going off in western Ukraine. Not sure why.
Here's a handy informational from Al Jazeera.
It shows who will suck the most in the EU, since official policy now seem to turning to give up Russian fossil fuels and replace them with... energy grass? I dunno, something oil from US companies, or oil from companies owned by US companies or something.
Also this don't seem to show the gas situation, gas as natural gas, not benzine/gasoline/diesel or what USians calls gas.
Anyway several EU countries have reasons to veto embargo on fossil fuels as weapon against Russia:
- Northern Hungary
- Czech Republic
So basically every fugging Eastern EU countries, Netherlands, plus Germany herself but they don't care.
I'm thinking you probably don't deserve a serious reply
Very understanding of you. Here's more for you to commiserate with.
> nor what the real situation on the ground is or what the real plan of the Russian army is
> Or maybe they do intend to bring more forces in at some point but later on, I don't know.
True, we don't know. But my guess is that the Russian claim about the assault on Kiev and other areas being purely diversionary is a pretext. As (I think) you said, even if the chance of success is small, it still makes sense to try an assault on the main cities, away from Donbass, if success would mean a quick and relatively bloodless end to the conflict. Well, most likely they gave it a go, and it didn't work out. If it was only diversionary, why announce it publicly and lead Ukr to redeploy its forces, pinned down there, to other fronts? One reason may be deception. However, there are reports now about Russian forces leaving some areas like Gostomel, Chernobyl, somewhere around Sumy, somewhere around Kherson. If that's true, there was no deception since it makes little sense to leave now just to redo the work later. So if they are leaving those areas it must be because staying is not sustainable, or because troops are needed elsewhere and no other reinforcements are forthcoming, or because they reached some kind of agreement and are getting something else in return (there were reports about Moscow and Kiev getting a little closer in their positions at Constantinople).
My guess is that there will be no russian mobilization and no more forces will be deployed. Russian forces will finish clearing up Mariupol and eventually take the rest of Donbass either through fighting or by striking a deal with Kiev. The vanquishing of Azov and the liberation of Mariupol will be celebrated loudly. But it will mean the rest of Novorossia, and Kiev itself, will have slipped away. Of course, "the west" is bound to call it a russian defeat in any case. But, although neither Kiev or Novorossia where at any point an official goal, some russians, too, will wonder if the reward was worth the sacrifices. Furthermore, I'm sure that, in this scenario where russia doesn't obtain a capitulation from kiev, the post-war direction of the ukrainian state will continue to be pro-atlanticist and anti-russia (even if militarily neutral). Just consider the >$13 billions approved by the US congress as "aid" for ukraine. Obviously this is again the same ngo-mediated influence-buying policy-directing program we have seen before.
The kremlin is making a mistake. Strelkov was right.
> That's a bit exaggerated.
Not too much, though. Every 3 or 4 days there's an article about US/UK/EU/Turkey sending more equipment. And when there is not, we read instead about them asking for more.
> how they gain ground by the house. And how the Chechens rode into the town and died.
Ironic. It seems (some of) the Chechens themselves forgot about Grozny.
> I seem to recall a video featuring him where they used green screen
I saw that. 2 actually. Mismatched lighting, not well done.
> Ukrainians might feel more and more they are a cohesive nation-state capable of organizing and sustaining a war effort.
May be, but it is very clear that the organization comes at least partially from nato/5-eyes with which they admit to be in daily contact. If russia "loses" this, the ukraine may move towards a more cohesive state not because of an increase in cooperation between their peoples, but because the pro-russia people will feel abandoned and will quietly suffer the same suppression they have for the past 7 years at least. Because, if russia "loses" this, it will be because it didn't really want to win it that much.
But actually, when I say "russia" I really mean the kremlin. It seems to me that most russians do want to win this very much (even more so after seeing what the UAF does to POW), so the kremlin is walking on thin ice: a defeat, or a victory only on paper, could spell serious instability for the russian govt.
> the most pro-Russian parts of the country will be the most damaged by combat.
This became clear early on. Obviously Azov didn't gaf about the damage to Mariupol or its inhabitants. Same about the rest of Donbas. The tactic seems to be to force the russian forces to partially destroy the civilian/industrial infrastructure if they want to take the cities. Meanwhile, the population centres in the far west, from which the "ukrainian" ideology spreads, remains almost intact. Russia should duke Lvov.
> Russia will have more gains as the war gets long and bitter, but their quality will be lower.
But will it get much longer? There is some chatter now about a partial convergence in their negotiating positions (basically ukr saying it's willing to agree on neutrality, provided they can aspire to eventually join EU [more on this below], and willing to "compromise" on Donbass and Crimea; no mention of demilitarization or denazification). Supposing ukr agrees in full, would rus accept and end the war at once? Given the costs already paid and those to be paid for several more years (if the economic war is not stopped), would Russia be content with that? Like you, I tend to think "no". But as I said, the only way I see for moscow to extract a complete surrender from kiev is by deploying the rest of its army and, at least partially, mobilizing its population and economy. And that is not happening. On the contrary we are beginning to see some controlled retreat/redeployment.
About Ukr joining EU: The exclusivity demanded by EU in 2013 was one of the factors that contributed to the 2014 coup and the civil war in the Ukraine. It would be kind of lame for russia to now acquiesce to the same thing.
Also, notice that this is somewhat in tension with the neutrality demand: EU is developing into a superstate and starting to acquire elements of a military alliance. Just a couple of weeks ago a "common military strategy" was introduced, including the creation of a "rapid deployment force", cooperation and integration of infosec capabilities, joint military-related investment and development, and NATO cooperation. In fact, France has been among the strongest supporters of the creation of a european army and one of the conduits discussed for the implementation of such project was the EU. Russia is making a mistake if it still believes that EU is just a trade bloc. If USA's rule over Europe remains strong, EU will act as an extension of NATO. If it weakens, EU might become a separate military bloc.
> Winter War
Russia proper gained territory as a result, so I'm drawing a parallel between the narratives surrounding that conflict and the ones that reasonably could sprout from this one.
> May be, but it is very clear that the organization comes at least partially from nato/5-eyes with which they admit to be in daily contact.
Ukraine receives good intel from the West and this improves its combat effectiveness, but it would mean nothing without a fighting force on the ground capable of exploiting it. Russian advance failed to be overwhelming probably not because of Russian military incompetence (maybe they're underperforming relative to expectations, but not the main factor) but because the Ukrainian military is a serious fighting force holding ground to the best of its abilities and keeping its cohesiveness. Not even a large number of Western military advisors on the ground would save an incompetent or demoralized Ukrainian military.
> If russia "loses" this, the ukraine may move towards a more cohesive state not because of an increase in cooperation between their peoples
But that can very well happen depending on the psychological impact. To increase influence on the entire Ukraine Russia needs a positive psychological impact by demoralizing and humiliating the anti-Russian side or taking over the entire country and providing good governance. Declaring war, allowing the Ukrainians to fight seriously and ending it without demoralization is a recipe for reinforcing anti-Russian opinion in the country. And not just that, but also reinforcing the belief that confrontation is viable.
> As (I think) you said, even if the chance of success is small, it still makes sense to try an assault on the main cities, away from Donbass, if success would mean a quick and relatively bloodless end to the conflict. Well, most likely they gave it a go, and it didn't work out. If it was only diversionary, why announce it publicly and lead Ukr to redeploy its forces, pinned down there, to other fronts?
Yes I said that, but it did also scare the pants off the Ukrainians and forced them to divert forces to Kiev in order to defend it.
> So if they are leaving those areas it must be because staying is not sustainable, or because troops are needed elsewhere and no other reinforcements are forthcoming,
> My guess is that there will be no russian mobilization and no more forces will be deployed.
Yes, they are the inferior force in terms of numbers and have to husband forces much more than Ukraine does. I heard they were calling more Conscripts but I don't know how the Russian conscript system actually works, I know that in many nations they have seasonal drafts where they call up young adults for their mandatory service and training and then releases them after a set time and that just repeats, they may simply be doing that which they would have done anyway. Plus conscripts need training and that takes time.
> Russian forces will finish clearing up Mariupol and eventually take the rest of Donbass either through fighting or by striking a deal with Kiev. The vanquishing of Azov and the liberation of Mariupol will be celebrated loudly. But it will mean the rest of Novorossia, and Kiev itself, will have slipped away.
Maybe, the Ukrainians have a sizeable force in the Donbass and we don't really know what the state of the rest of their army is and how much they have lost or how their logistics are holding up. This could play out like the German invasion of France where the Germans cut off the bulk of the standing allied force in the north leaving just demoralised fragment and reserves to defend France herself who were quickly run over in the second phase of the invasion. That is what I had thought would happen from the beginning and it still might.
> Furthermore, I'm sure that, in this scenario where russia doesn't obtain a capitulation from kiev, the post-war direction of the ukrainian state will continue to be pro-atlanticist and anti-russia (even if militarily neutral).
Yes, that's why I think that they won't accept anything less than a capitulation unless they really have too.
It is not.
> I'm thinking you probably don't deserve a serious reply
> Very understanding of you. Here's more for you to commiserate with.
He is and Oldbernd whose main interests lies elsewhere, he was never big in politics or wars. He contributes in many ways in many threads, helps keeping them going, keeping this board not turning into ghost town. This isn't a politics board anyway, but international where international and intra-national events can be discussed.
You don't need to reply him seriously ofc. Meself didn't reply seriously to posters whom I perceived annoying in a way. But I think expressing sympathy towards everyday Ukrainians shouldn't be annoying to anyone, I don't see how it is a problem for you (ok it's overdone by the media, but their life isn't a cakewalk, nor everyday Russians' for that matter, or even the soldiers now fighting on both sides).
I'm sure you have no doubt all heard about the uncovering of executed civilians around the areas the Russians withdrew from and how the media are saying the Russians massacred civilians.
Maybe. I don't know it's too hard and too soon to tell, I think something this big should be looked into before making such accusations as in wars like this it's fairly common for the side that takes back territory to round up and execute collaborators, for example the US army estimated that 80,000 French civilians were summarily executed by the French themselves after the Germans were pushed back. To me, that makes more sense than Russia being behind this at the moment but I am not ruling anything out.
Anyway. The bigger issue is what this actually means for the war. They are talking about sending human rights people and such to look into this and make a case for it. I am not sure how much evidence is actually going to be found though, whatever side did it won't be leaving orders around to find(if they even gave them) and probably won't have filmed themselves doing it so they are just going to go on witness accounts most likely and that is never reliable and easily falsifiable.
So Ukraine will blame Russia and Russia will deny it and blame Ukraine. And then it becomes diplomatic, the west is already blaming Russia for it and was always going to side with Ukraine on this one. There is now going to be a strong push and even a justification for more action to be taken against Russia, particularly if it's proven or even 'proven' that Russia did it.
The West have already emptied their warehouses of most the shoulder fired systems they can spare, now they are moving on to large equipment like soviet era armoured vehicles but there is a limit to them as well, only the eastern nations own them and they are fairly old. The UK said it would send some Saxon armoured vehicles as well as artillery before this happened, that's not much help either(well the artillery may be depending on how much they can get). There is a limit to the amount that the west is able to actually give.
I don't think military action is likely, however this may encourage pseudo military actions and actions that draw the line. So they might send troops in on humanitarian missions or missions they claim to be humanitarian, they might send observers and they might send special forces or their own versions of little green men.
They will also use this to pressure China and anybody else supporting or even abstaining form opposing Russia.
Australia is also sending Bushmasters now, this was announced 3 days ago so I am not sure if it's related. They have not announced how many yet though. The Dutch operate them as well, so it's possible that they might be persuaded to send them over as well or they could send them over in return for Australia replacing what they send with new ones. I'm not sure how much help they will actually be but it's better than nothing.
At the end of this the writer mentions the possibility of sending Ukraine tanks as well, or of sending them to Poland to free up Polish Soviet tanks for Ukraine.
> the Russian claim about the assault on Kiev and other areas being purely diversionary is a pretext. [...]
I believe you are right there.
It's liek reconnaissance by force. The main purpose is to measure the enemy resistance, what they have to face, but it is done with enough force so it can be built up into a full scale assault if results are promising.
Similarly, they probably put enough weight in the assault against Kiev (and the other cities), that if the going seems easy they could hit home and capture them. If not they still have the primary objective as being diversionary, or rather to hold down as much Ukrainian troops as possible, so elsewhere they can't be used.
> My guess is that [...]
Beyond these I think Moscow wants the keep the possibility open for further military action if need be. The other half of Donetsk is still in Ukrainian hands.
They see that NATO won't raise a finger, and after a month of sanctions they can estimate the cost and impact.
And even now, something is brewing. There are strikes done down in the south and in western Ukraine. The shelling in the south again seems like the arty preparation of an attack (like in Syria and how they did it after they entered Ukraine and were stopped in the beginning).
> could spell serious instability for the russian govt.
The govt there is actually "uniting" people with the help of western sanctions. They are told again and again how the world hates them and they can only count on each other and on Russian government.
NFKRZ has good recent videos explaining stuff. They are about 10 mins long:
> destroyed cities
Rebuilding can be used as a tool to create cooperation between central govt and local population. They get to know each other, and more propaganda can be told. They can have their own "build back better" tunes.
> we are beginning to see some controlled retreat/redeployment.
Since then the withdrawal in the north is in full swing.
> psychological impact.
A "bad" outcome for Russia could be also used. Tensions growing can be used as an excuse again and again to move into Ukraine for some special action. Especially if they'll be able to keep the military solution open ended.
Maybe the whole Ukraine was still too big of a bite to chew it, but it can be done gradually. Even if the situation remains as is, they gained whole Lugansk, and south Ukraine from the East of the Dniepr. Next time they can get Donetsk oblast, Odessa. Then more. Noone is there stopping them.
Could be conscripts who served their time, had the training.
> and it still might.
The recent bombardment might be promising in that sense.
> uncovering of executed civilians
Yes. They might wanna exploit that Katyn vibe.
> it's fairly common for the side that takes back territory to round up and execute collaborators
That could also contribute the losses. We won't know from our media.
Thing is atrocities do get committed, without orders or previous will, just by the escalation of the contact between civilians and military. Sparks and excuses aplenty.
> So Ukraine will blame Russia and Russia will deny it and blame Ukraine.
Btw. With one eye I caught glimpse of an article where China also put forward the idea of acquiring Taiwan again.
B-but they have ambulance to transport troops... >>/47134/ Those have plot-armor.
> I think expressing sympathy towards everyday Ukrainians shouldn't be annoying to anyone, I don't see how it is a problem for you
I think you misunderstand. Of course it is not a problem for me and I don't find it annoying when expressing sympathy. (If something irks me, it's only the dumb hypocrisy. Did any of them gaf about the Ukraine for the past ~8 years? Ofc not. And tbh, it is the dumbness that irks me even more than the hypocrisy or one-sidedness.)
No, I was replying specifically to the words he addressed to me ("Well it's a war... people aren't going to be level headed. It can happen anywhere"), which I thought amounted to a deflection. I should have quoted it to avoid confusion
Anyway, since you vouch for him:
It is a dumb question. Is it pointless because the Atlanticist media will paint Russia into an even bigger boogeyman than they already portray them as? Nah. So, what's the point? Well, from the Russian PoV you can grasp "their point" by reading their demands: recognition of the Donbass, and Crimea, neutrality, "demilitarization", and "denazification". But to really understand that you should ask "how come" and "to what end". I (and others) have posted about that in the previous Syria and News threads, you could go back and read them. But, as an incomplete executive summary, this war is a denouement of: more than a century of divisions within a state haphazardly put together by commies and subjected to their "korenizing" nation-building practices; 30 years of NATO expansion in violation to promises given in exchange of the reunification of Germany; US-aided "fortification" of the presidential elections in 2004, in favour of a US-friendly candidate; US-fostered coup d'etat in 2014, followed by a US-directed purging of officials perceived by washington as insufficiently atlanticist (see the Kerry, Biden, and Nuland leaked tapes), including the prosecutor that was investigating Hunter Biden, son of the then-VP of USA, for his dealings in Ukr; massacre of russian-speakers in Odessa; Crimea voting to break off from the successor state of the soviet republic it was shoved into (by a soviet leader from the Ukr); civil war in the Donbass, last-minute aid from Russia, ~6 years of frozen conflict with start-stop shelling, >14000 dead, displacement of hundreds of thousands; elevation of "nazi"-larping paramilitaries and hooligans into the ukrainian army; state-sanctioned celebration of Bandera and other allies of WW2 Germany in west-ukraine; restrictions on russian (and hungarian) language, and their native speakers within the Ukraine; >6 years of the Ukrainian state reneging the implementation of the peace agreement it signed (Minsk II), and as many years of Berlin and Paris (the other 2 guarantors of the agreement, apart from Moscow) not pressuring Kiev to comply with its obligations.
You might want to listen to this interview with Alain Juillet, former chief of the DGSE, France's top intelligence agency. Long interview that touches on several topics besides the Ukraine, but you can use their table-of-contents to jump around. https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=AQhGxsprH8A
Since feelings of sympathy towards ukrianians are known to you, you could also watch this film-documentaire by frenchwoman Anne-Laure Bonnel. It was produced with footage from the first year of civil war in the Donbass in early 2015 and focuses on civilians there. https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=CWSYY4KL76E
> reconnaissance by force ... with enough force so it can be built up into a full scale assault if results are promising.
Exactly. Probably it was dual-purpose.
> They are told again and again how the world hates them
I think "the western world" gave them plenty of evidence for this. Seriously, is kind of like "covid" was rebranded "russia" so that the hysteria could live on.
Grozny looks pretty decent nowadays
> but it would mean nothing without a fighting force on the ground capable of exploiting it
Sure, but I include this in "nato/5-eyes organization", because of the training of troops they received for several years. I do not discount their competence, although we should also note that they fight a "total war" (a "dirty" war), while rus may have been handicapped by their desire to be positively received by the locals (thus restrained engagement)
> I heard they were calling more Conscripts
It could be the seasonal call for service. According to the internetz, Russia should have many more troops than is currently using in this conflict, so they should not need conscripts for this. (Anyway, they wouldn't be very useful in the frontline, although maybe recruits could be used in the rear, or to do some logistics work in controlled territory, or to replace garrisons in peaceful parts of the country.)
> or how their logistics are holding up. This could play out like the German invasion of France...
Hm. Would be vital for them to ensure fuel/lubricant supplies are eliminated then
> The bigger issue is what this actually means for the war.
You basically covered all the main points: these unconfirmed events/provocations are used to rally political support for escalations, either militarily (sending/using heavier ordnance), or economically (ratcheting the economic war), or diplomatically (pressuring countries into isolating the target).
Anyway, until forensic evidence is found and presented it's just another wave of atrocity propaganda. Like the "playhouse" story before (>>/46960/), and the "maternity hospital" story before that: No evidence of killed civs or of who caused the destruction of that playhouse was presented. Still, the media ran wild with the story until Ukr congressmen themselves put ice on it by claiming they had found hundreds of civs unharmed in the basement of the building. Before that, they had claimed that rus has bombed a maternity hospital in Mariupol. We saw the rubble and seemingly injured women being carried in stretchers. Again, no attention was paid by the MSM to provide evidence of who caused the explosion or to whether the hospital was really a hospital at the time (rather than a military post). Well, one of the women whose face was used for that photo-op was actually evacuated by rus and, a few days ago, she gave an interview (vid related). She claims that kiev and the msm lied
Same story with these bodies: we don't have evidence of whether all these people are dead and, if so, who killed them. We have emotional screeching instead. Some things to consider:
- A day or 2 passed since rus removed their troops from these locations until ukr moved in. If the story is that they murdered these people at any time before leaving, rigor mortis and morbid skin colouration should have been evident, but was it?
- If you look at other videos (e.g. vid related from Mariupol) you will notice that some civs are wearing white bands (like rus soldiers, apparently to show their allegiance). Well, some of these alleged corpses have white bands too. Something doesn't fit.
- Weird clip supposedly taken from Ukr TV where an alleged corpse seems to move
- Another video, claimed to be from that place around that time, where an ukr soldier allegedly asks if it's ok to shoot at people without blue bands and he is given the go ahead
> I heard they were calling more Conscripts but I don't know how the Russian conscript system actually works, I know that in many nations they have seasonal drafts where they call up young adults for their mandatory service and training and then releases them after a set time and that just repeats, they may simply be doing that which they would have done anyway.
Yes, it is seasonal draft. Russia has obligatory military conscription, there are two drafts, summer one and autumn one. Conscripts serve 1 year (it is recent, in past it was 2 years). They've often called "srochniki" from "srochnaya sluzhba" (can be translated as timed or terminable service, i.e. having a fixed time period).
Those who served as conscripts may then make contract with army and serve on different terms (with real wage etc). They've called
"kontraktniki" (also sometimes "professionals", because it is concept of "professional army" opposed to conscription).
Officially only contract ones may be used in current war, but there were cases when conscripts were found in Ukraine. Conscript also can make contract with army even after three months, so there are plenty of people who technically on contract but in reality are almost same conscripts. There were also cases when local army command tries to intimidate conscripts into contract, and it often works (because conscripts are basically kids).
So, officially this draft wouldn't change anything, unofficially some people may go into warzone.
> also sometimes "professionals", because it is concept of "professional army" opposed to conscription
Yes. Professionals are those who do their stuff payed, and not necessarily those who are pros in that area. It's like Hungarian football...
> local army command tries to intimidate conscripts into contract, and it often works (because conscripts are basically kids).
Military could be a very useful tool to finish and polish the final stages of the development of young men. It could offer learning teamwork, leadership skills (among others), could create group cohesion, camaraderie. Instead conscription was (it was abolished here in the 2000s) and still is just a chain of abuse and humiliation. For these reasons I'm both pro and against conscription. It was/is implemented in the worst possible way.
Maybe gradually building it anew from just a small size of dedicated soldiers who would selected for the mindset needed, and they would work on the first group of conscripts, giving them that mindset, and then who would pass it further for a larger group of new conscripts, and so on. Year by year, involving larger and larger amount of people, it could be rebuilt from the ground.
An interview with a Panzer General about the war.
I found his views on the casualties of Russian generals to be very interesting, most people say 'the Russians have a top down approach, junior officers can't act on their own and the Russian Generals have to go to the front to take control of the situation'
But then this General says 'that's how they should be fighting, generals should always be leading form the front, that way he knows the situation on the ground and shares the trials of his men'.
It was very German and it's good to see they still have that spirit.
They are Giving Ukraine 20 of them and they have started repainting and flying them over now. But they can only fly 3 at once so it might be a few weeks. Not that I think they will help much anyway, they will probably be used as transport in rear areas and maybe they will transport troops to and from the front but I don't think they will take part in offensive operations they are too weak.
Also I found an image of another Ukrainian Vehicle that still has the Ukrainian cross. But they both look faded, it might be battle fatigue but it also might be that they just left them on and didn't bother removing them because they are on support units(the first one I saw was on an mobile AA system).
We are constantly seeing tanks poorly used in this war leading to tanks operating by themselves with no support being taken out by ATGMs and western commentators are foten critical of this but I wonder how much doctrine plays into this. The aforementioned officers sch as >>/47160/ who also mentions it are western and we are looking at this through a western lens. But, Russia is not western and there ideas on how tanks should be used are most likely very different from ours and it's probably part of the reason they always have so many of them. Going back to the second world the Soviets operated on a principle of assault in depth, they would attack the German lines with formations of tanks and when they broke through they would simply keep going right into the German rear by themselves like we often seem to see in Ukraine, and the result was often the same. I wonder how much of that doctrine remains within the Russian army. And likewise, the Russian army has always made up for it's poor infantry with heavy equipment. Always, going back from when Russia first became a state or even before, they have always been an artillery heavy army and it makes sense that they would use massed tanks to stiffen their army as well. I don't think they actually expect them to survive long in combat, certainly historically they never have, but even poorly used tanks are still tanks and still act as a force multiplier for their poor infantry.
Yeah, saw in the news they're gonna send bunch of old T-72 from Eastern EU countries.
> Alain Juillet https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=AQhGxsprH8A
Turns out the subtitles (machine-translated I guess) are total rubbish. There is a short summary about the Ukraine topics here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510495717520928772.html
> Anne-Laure Bonnel https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=CWSYY4KL76E
This too, so maybe try this other one (although I think is not official translations): https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=b8j0tJsKltg
A 2-star officer in Kherson (I think) greeting firemen that welcomed the russian troops. (Video is not recent.)
Several days ago the US said it would send hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles into the Ukraine. Rails loaded with tanks were reportedly seen in Czechia (apparently soviet-era equipment) and Germany (toward Poland, maybe NATO equipment). I really don't understand what Russia think it's doing by letting the western ukro borders totally open, unhindered, unthreatened all this time.
Misc (some of these are a few days old):
- A video shows an Ukranian Orthodox priest loyal to the Moscow Patriarchate being dragged out of his church by a bunch of ukrops
- The Ukraine asked Slovenia to remove its flag from the Kiev embassy because it's too similar to Russia's. Could they have been such faggots as to comply?
- Top floors of a residential building in Donetsk wrecked. DNR said it was an Ukr attack. 1 killed and several injured, including 2 children.
- Ukro govt amended a law to permit the confiscation/nationalization of property belonging to any russian citizen (not just corporations or legal persons, but natural persons too), also to any person regardless of citizenship that expresses pro-russia opinions regarding the war. Ukro PM says they will nationalize all russian properties.
- UN general assembly passed a US-proposed resolution to suspend Russia from a "human-rights council". Don't know what was the justification nor what the suspension entails but smells like conviction before trial
- Today: The railway station of Kramatorsk (IIUC, it's in Donetsk province, ukr-controlled but close to the DNR line of control) was hit by a Tochka-U. Allegedly ~30 civilians dead or injured. Possibly another cluster bomb, like the one said to have hit the centre of Donetsk several days ago also allegedly killing/injuring dozens of civilians. The russian army no longer operates those but the ukro/west narrative is what you would expect.
> The Ukraine asked Slovenia to remove its flag from the Kiev embassy because it's too similar to Russia's.
This gave me an idea.
Slovakia sent an S-300 system as well, the US said they will send a Patriot system manned by US solders there as a temporary replacement. But there is a limit to the amount of this kind of equipment they can actually send, Soviet era tanks and AA systems don't grow on trees, once they run out they run out. That applies to alot of the stuff they are sending, often they are just empting stockpiles of spare and old Javelins and NLAws but there is a limit to that as well before they start having to look at breaking in to the stockpiles of equipment that they themselves actually need.
It's probably a lot more complex than it sounds, you would have to have aerial recon over the borders to monitor what comes in and then if they do strike at a Ukrainian train it might ruin the railway as well and then the west would complain that humanitarian aid can't get through any more. Same as if they just target the railway infrastructure itself. But if this becomes a serious issue maybe they will.
Survival Russia video about prices on day 41 of the sanctions:
Stock levels of the shops are normal, some prices of certain food items went up - especially dog food for some reason - buckwheat is kinda missing and the purchasable amount is set per person. Import motor oils prices are high enough for him to change filters and use local made instead. No recording of gas/benzine/diesel prices, he says its the same.
That Austrian channel you linked has a video about how battalion battle groups are used.https://youtube.com/watch?v=5n7jAXgxFRQ
I saw it before, it's interesting. The Russians certainly have a lot of supporting artillery in those formations.
Now that the war in Ukraine got to a calm phase, maybe close to ending (but who knows), news now back at covid and XE strain, which is way more dangerous than XA, XB, XC, XD variants we have never heard of. Despite this the omicron kills record amount of people in the UK, which should be not dangerous at all, and mean the end of the pandemic. Ok, this should have been posted in the news thread.
But in Ukraine some/lot artillery activity can be seen on this livemap, chiefly in two regions, at Kharkov, and Dnipro-Zhaporozhia.
I consider it kind of a small talk he makes.
That is a good tl;dr. But in the foreign meddling in Ukraine, Moscow also took its part. Russia has interest to gain influence, foothold, and land, so has no interest in a calm and stable Ukraine. On her behalf the Russian (speaking) minority is a tool to gain geopolitical advantages which lost when the SU fall apart.
I will check that Bonnel documentary. Good you posted.
> mariupol white bands.mp4
Chechens distributing food in occupied Mariupol?
Those civilians better pray Ukrainians never return to the city. Especially those who thanked it for the camera. 110% dangerous collaborators.
> they fight a "total war" (a "dirty" war)
Well, a total war in a sense that they use any tools they can come up with. The dirty war might be a better expression, since total war would mean the whole country, the society, the economy is set to fight the war, when it's not.
> atrocity propaganda
I find it not easy to give opinion about these in general. But regardless if these true or not, their use in propaganda is obvious.
> casualties of Russian generals
Is that high? I remember mentioning a colonel somewhere.
They really did throw tank regiments around in WWII.
It would be good to understand what had been said.
> western ukro borders totally open, unhindered, unthreatened all this time.
It's good to let refugees leave, EU has to take care of them. Plus for those who flee the men of the families will join, and they are those who fear or despise Russia and active enough to do something (the rest is helpless enough to not even try fleeing). These were removed from Ukraine essentially. I doubt refugees will return, EU economy needs workers.
They could try struck from Belarus along the western border, but that is one way direction to plow through in straight line, I'm not sure how operationally viable is that.
> hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles into the Ukraine
I doubt those will be much hindrance, they can be destroyed the same they did with the previous equipment of the Ukrainian army.
On the other hand it also shows how effective they were despite the lack of information, and the news Ukrainians provided how Russian offense were failures.
They have lost several of them. I found this video that lists them, it's a bit old so more might have died sense then.https://youtube.com/watch?v=co_nZLOWaBM
>>A 2-star officer in Kherson (I think) greeting firemen that welcomed the russian troops. (Video is not recent.)
>>It would be good to understand what had been said.
He isn't military officer but a minister of DNR MChS (emergency service) - they have ranks and military-like uniform too. MChS and similar structures in post-Soviet countries are organized as paramilitary force, especially firemen and civil defense branches.
Those who speak Russian can easily hear his strong Ukrainian-like accent that is common in south Russia (especially "Г" sound).
He greets everyone, says that is you want to work you'll get one, except if you did something bad before (he'd used term "blood on your hands"). Then everything ended in talks about wages and that everything will be ok.
And now he made a video analysing a famous ambush of this war.
So if I understand correctly:
A Russians BTG (battalion tactics group, from th 6th guard tank regiment of the 90th tank division) rolled into Bowary on March 10, carelessly straight, on the 4 lane road.
From the side a hidden group of Ukrainian infantry shot one tank at the head of the column (but not the first one) with handheld AT weapons.
Couple of tanks at the back returned fire while the rest evaded to their left, some infantry leaving their APCs.
Then two Ukrainian tanks (T-64, 60 years old equipment) rolled up on the road and fired at the column.
The Russian column got bunched up and a group of them at the back got artillery fire, possibly directed by UAV.
The result: two T-72 and a BTR-82 were destroyed, a T-72 and 2 MT-LB was captured (essentially 50 years old equipment). But also lost the commander of the unit.
The Ukrainian tactics was a classic one (was used even in Con-Air), shooting the first and then attacking the back. It would have been even more effective, if the attack on the back had closed the way backwards, so another strike in the middle could destroy the rest.
(What does CAA mean? Some kind of artillery?)
I really hope they are right, we've been waiting long enough, well it just feels like that anyway. In theory, this offensive will be a much better display of what the Russian can bring to bear, they are not overextending their forces through multiple fronts, the Command staff know they are going to be facing strong opposition and the soldiers know they are going to have to fight, the Russian logistics don't have to go through Belarus and they should have addressed any issues they had with it before.
So really they don't have any excuses to suffer setbacks this time and if they do then it's on them.
Yes, I had seen both clips before but I was not aware it was from the same event.
CAA? Not sure I forget when he said it. Is it the guided Artillery ammunition he mentioned? They are quite interesting and I was not aware the Ukrainians had them.
Al Jazeera published an article about the possibility of the attack this morn too. I think it was Al Jazeera at least.
The CAA is might be not artillery, but army (the last A in the acronym). It's on the map in the video which shows the units on the Kievan front. There is a GCAA too, the G is short for Guard for sure.
I think there was 2nd CAA, 90th TD (tank division), and 6th GTR (guard tank regiment).
Now I'm thinking the 90th division is part of the 2nd CAA, because the 6th regiment is part of 90th division.
It is "Combined Arms Army", English term for общевойсковая армия (relatively close translation).
2nd is this one: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/2-я_гвардейская_общевойсковая_армия
> T-64, 60 years old equipment
Contrary to numeric representation, T-64 is not really older not more primitive than T-72. They are comparable vehicles that were produced at same time because USSR had dangerously aggressive lobbying in military industry (there also was third tank series too). Although variants and upgrades may be very different, from old to very recent ones, and recent ones are pretty modern in technological terms (or generals think that they are).
INCREDIBLE NEWS!!! Rhenimetall is talking about sending 50 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, they say they are preparing to send them and just need it to be approved by Germany.
Finally the Leopard 1 will have it's combat debut!!! And we don't have to keep looking at ugly soviet tanks all the time!!!
Many other nations have stockpiles of Leopard 1s that could be send if the precedent is set and this may even lead on to newer models, if they can get over the hurdles of sending a Leopard 1 then they should be able to send a Leopard 2 as well.
But I wonder how effective they will be or how they will be used. They don't have much armour and they have a 105mm gun. They won't fair well against Russian tanks but a tank is a tank. They will still be able to support the infantry and so long as the Ukrainians don't treat them as a modern tank and don't expect them to be able to stand toe to toe with Russian tanks and are accordingly cautious in their employment then they may be fine, at worse they are just a BMP that can't carry infantry but has a bigger gun. I just hope they don't end up like the Slovakian S-300 which has apparently already been destroyed.
Regarding Mariupol. Fighting is still ongoing there and now it seems that the Ukrainian forces have been cut into three pockets, one at the Azovstal Steel works, one at the Ilyich factory and possible another by the coast. Details can be really hard to ascertain about the situation. It seems that the 36th Marine Brigade is bottled up in the Ilyich plant, Azov Battalion is at Azovstal and as for the other units I am unsure.
Anyway, a few days ago the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade posted a message on Facebook saying the situation was dire, half the unit was eliminated, the wounded were being send to the fight if they didn't have limbs torn off from them and everybody that could be spared was being sent to fight as well, from radio men to cooks and even the brigade orchestra.
The deputy Mayor of Mariupol then said this was not true and everything was fine and then the AFU itself said everything was fine and he was lying.
But it seems he was correct after all, last night about 100 Ukrainians(according to the DPR) tried to flee the Ilyich plant in Russian marked vehicles, the ruse was spotted and 50 were killed and 42 were captured as well as some armoured vehicles that were destroyed as well.
However, today according to the Russians 1500 have tried to break out with 500 dying in the process and 1029 being captured. I think that's the largest capitulation so far if it's true. But this was always going to happen, it was not like they had much choice and I think that was why the commander made that post, to show that he had done what he could but the situation was hopeless.
> Combined Arms Army
> recent ones are pretty modern in technological terms
They even have autoloader.
Wikipee says Ukraine had many T-72 but sold them since factories were in Russia, and favoured T-64 because they produced that.
> keep looking at ugly soviet tanks all the time
But most of the time they are destroyed already when shown.
> Leopard 1
Another equipment from the '60s.
> Slovakian S-300 which has apparently already been destroyed.
I read ¬1000 of them surrendered.
> The deputy Mayor of Mariupol then said this was not true and everything was fine and then the AFU itself said everything was fine and he was lying.
> Leopard 1 will have it's combat debut
Didn't they had combat in Bosnia?
> But most of the time they are destroyed already when shown.
But I still see to many that are not destroyed.
> Another equipment from the '60s.
They are getting 200 M113s from the US, but we still use them as well so I should not judge. The US is giving them 155mm artillery and Russian helicopters as well.
So they say, Southfront said there were images of the damage from a US satellite but didn't show the images so I don't know.
> I read ¬1000 of them surrendered.
Yes, they say 1300 all up but 1026 were from the 36th Marine Brigade. So if half their strength was gone before this and now they lost 1000 then there can't be many of them left at all from that Brigade and it's probably been eliminated as a fighting unit, just the few that managed to break out and get to Azovstal would remain.
Interesting. But none were lost so they were not blooded.
> But none were lost so they were not blooded.
Optimally that's what I'll call good.
Here's the chance however.
Oh wow. For those in Moscow, their face must be so red.
Right that's it. Send in Admiral Kuznetsov, it's time to take the gloves off.
Yesss send it in.
She would cover the skies of Ukraine with a smoke so thick, it would doom the country to Eternal Darkness.
It's all air, artillery, and missile strikes now. Sirens going off everywhere.
They told Russia will use nukes too.
It seems it started.
Yesterday Russians/secessionists made an attempt on the Luhansk front, today Ukrainians counterattacked a bit north from there.
Heavy shelling at Kharkov, and another Russian attack in the south.
If I have to guess early tomorrow further developments can be expected. We'll see.
Now the initiative at the Russians at that corner of Lugansk, Kreminna town, meanwhile they're approaching from the NW there, along the Oskol/Oskil river.
The Russians took the town of Kreminna, Kreminna is useful as a jumping off point for further offensives into the Donbass and they can use it to split the Ukrainian forces in the area into two if they manage to push to Sloviansk, there is nothing between Izium and Sloviansk so they could attack from both direction and cut off a pocket in the north, if they manage to push up from the south they could cut of that entire area including the reasonably sized forces in Svieriodonetsk and Lysychansk. If they do want to play it that way and not encircle the Donbass formations as a whole.
I don't think it has yet. It still seems too limited.
I think they do stuff in that area because it's part of Lugansk oblast. They'd like to control everything within the border.
I forgot to mention about MAriupol, in the Briefing for the 16th of April the spokesperson said something interesting about the troop strength in Mariupol.
> I remind you that at the time of its encirclement on 11 March, Mariupol was occupied by the 36th Independent Marines Brigade, the 109th Territorial Defence Brigade, the 503rd Independent Marines Battalion, a company of the 53rd Independent Mechanised Brigade, units of the 17th Antitank Brigade, the Nazi formations Azov, Aidar and Right Sector, police and State Border Service units as well as foreign mercenaries.
> The total number of this group was around 8,100 people.
So, it's not 4 Brigades like I thought it was going by Wikipedia. It's two Brigades, an independent Battalion but only elements from two further Brigades not the whole brigades themselves, plus Azov and friends but I think those numbers would be harder to estimate.
But anyway, they have cleared the Ukrainians from all areas but Azovstal now but of course everybody talks about the soviet era tunnels under the plant and how it will be difficult to get them out. Maybe, I don't know. Probably with a liberal use of grenades they could clear it but it might take some time as they go bit by bit doing that.
But, an interesting idea I had. Azovstal is located by the sea, so maybe all the Russians have to do is blow a hole from the sea into one of the tunnels and they will flood the whole network. That will sort the matter.
True. But it can also wait, they can encircle them and then clear it. I think probably they will do both, cut off those small pockets and eliminate them whole at the same time making a large move to cut of the bulk of the forces.
8100 feels kinda low. But maybe units weren't filled up fully. Or just me overestimating those units.
> all areas but Azovstal
It should be hell for those who trapped inside now. There is nowhere to run, no direction to try break out. Supplies they have what they have. Wounded laying about, maybe dead too.
Yeah, Russians have options how to deal with them. Flooding sounds like solid solution.
We'll see. They could definitely strike from Izium and Polohy to create an encirclement.
It seems right if you only look at the regulars. A brigade being 3000-5000 that would be 6000-10000 for two, plus there is an independent battalion(so 400-1000) plus you have a company from a third(so only about 120) and then 'units of' so unknown really. So then you end up with about 6520-11120. 8100 would fit into that, plus they might have taken casualties outside Mariupol before they were caught up in there.
The other units are hard to determine though, they say 800 Azov fighters but then the numbers of Territorial defence forces, border service, police, and 'mercenaries'(if they exist there, though we do know there are Brits and Americans fighting within the Marines) are unknown.
Also interestingly enough, Wikipedia also list 4 Brigades but they are separate brigades, they list the 10th Assault Brigade, 56th Motorised Brigade, 36th Marine Brigade and the 12th Operational Brigade.
> It should be hell for those who trapped inside now. There is nowhere to run, no direction to try break out.
They can swim away.
> They can swim away.
They swim to the new bridge where they hitchhike to the Caucasus where they cross to a neutral country.
> Azovstal is located by the sea, so maybe all the Russians have to do is blow a hole from the sea into one of the tunnels and they will flood the whole network
These tunnels aren't that close to the sea, so if Russian army can breach very large distance in ground with some tool from the sea, it is easier to use that tool to just destroying tunnels as is.
Most of these tunnels must be pretty shallow though. I don't know anything about Azovstal, but visited two large Soviet-era metallurgical plants in past (as a student). Can't remember too much, but they've had shallow tunnels for relatively fast transit between facilities (they go straight and path is shorter than on ground). They were not really deep, mostly as underground passages in cities under the roads. Direct hit with big bomb and ceiling will be crushed.
There were proper bomb shelters though, very large and well-protected (at least from unexperienced observer like me). One was used as storage for factory library for example (it is Volgograd steel plant). Here few photos from that place. These places may stay for long time, although supplies will run out eventually anyway, so it is matter of time.
The vaunted Donbass frontline encirclement that has been discussed for a month might be a disappointment. The expected pincer attack is obvious and takes far too long, the southern pincer can't even be fully committed until the forces tied up in Mariupol are freed. Unless bombardment of fuel and road infrastructure has been thorough, the Ukrainians might retreat the bulk of their good units from the front before they get encircled. But what if that's Putin's intention? He gets the land he wants at little cost and can win modest gains in a ceasefire. For the same reason he might settle for a "green bus" style deal in Mariupol, allowing the remaining defenders free passage to Ukrainian territory, which will make the surrender easier but result in the fighters returning to the frontlines.
The retreat from northern Ukraine doesn't change a lot, Russia is moving forces to the east but naturally so is Ukraine. The Ukrainians could try an offensive around Kharkov to put pressure on the Russian northern prong or a surprise attack in Kherson to eliminate the Russian bridgehead across the Dniepr, but I don't know how much offensive capacity they have left.
> Sure, but I include this in "nato/5-eyes organization", because of the training of troops they received for several years. I do not discount their competence, although we should also note that they fight a "total war" (a "dirty" war), while rus may have been handicapped by their desire to be positively received by the locals (thus restrained engagement)
The Afghan National Army also received Western training - like you said, it only works because they're competent. Ukraine was always at a disadvantage with its smaller population and economy and in the months preceding the war there was talk about backing Ukrainian guerrilas - an overwhelming Russian victory was a common expectation. They've performed better than this, though it seems Westerners attribute this to Russian incompetence rather than Ukrainian competence. Russians have suffered due to holding back attacks on urban areas but after a certain point this is no longer relevant, in areas with intense fighting residents leave and there has been severe damage to buildings. Their lack of manpower mobilization for total war might be a bigger factor at this point.
Back to the psychological impact, it really will be more extensive than just pro-Russian Ukrainians becoming less active. The memory of camarederie on the frontlines, a functioning chain of command and war effort and the national/foreigner distinction will remain, and the "if we do this, Russia will attack" argument will lose strength. This won't make Ukraine a First World country because a lot of low trust backwaters have patriotic populations, but it's a setback for RUssia on the psychological field.
Hmmm.... Apparently they are already in Zarichne according to Liveuamaps. So maybe they are pushing to separate the AFU positions.
The DPR say they are starting to clear Azovstal.
The Ukrainians are saying the eastern offensive has begun, the Russians have not said if it has yet. It's hard to say right now but it seems too limited for an offensive so far.
> These places may stay for long time, although supplies will run out eventually anyway, so it is matter of time.
I wonder if the Russians even need to actually clear them, if they are tunnels they can just control the ground above and the people inside will not be able to do anything about it or be able to leave.
Maybe but I don't think it will. Not in that way, it might be far too limited and that would be disappointing, they might not be ambitious enough to go for Dnipro.
Yes, the big question is just how much will the Ukrainians be able to withdraw form a potential encirclement. Ukrainian forces will be fairly vulnerable on the roads out if they try to withdraw, they might lose a fair number just to air attacks, missiles and artillery.
> The Ukrainians could try an offensive around Kharkov to put pressure on the Russian northern prong or a surprise attack in Kherson to eliminate the Russian bridgehead across the Dniepr, but I don't know how much offensive capacity they have left.
They should certainly try to take Kherson and keep he Russians east of the Dniper, but yes we don't know what offensive ability they have left. They do counter attack but all of their counter attacks have been local. They need Leopard 1s and M113s, then they will deal with those pesky Russians.
Something did started.
Chief effort on the southern branch of the pincer.
I think elsewhere, especially on the middle area the action is limited, to engage Ukrainian forces and keep them busy.
Yeah, it looks like now it has started.
Who would have thought?
> Hungary siding with Russia
For what purpose?
How is Russia still doing an invasion? They look like they're losing too much
Weird, now it looks like all the activity ceased in the southern front, between Orikhiv (Orhov??) and Velika Novosilka.
Also check that on the side:
> President of the European Council Charles Michel: In Kyiv today. In the heart of a free and democratic Europe
Hilarious how the cleptocratic oligarchy of Ukraine becomes the pinnacle of freedom and democracy. And noone blinks an eye.
People prefer not to freeze to death, they also like cooked meals.
But to be honest the costs of gas and electricity are kept low artificially for some time now. Yearly next to the bill they include a paper which says how much it would cost without government intervention. 75% of the country would go bankrupt if they had to pay that, and the rest (minus the oligarchs and pals) couldn't afford anything else beside paying the utilities. Can't keep on being consumers like that.
Also other countries are dependent on cheap Russian fossil fuels. Like Netherlands and other Eastern European Union countries. So that's that. I have a guess why we are on that map and not others.
Russia gets defeated any day now. They will be forced onto their knees by denying Ritter Sport from them.
They will invade Ukraine and take back their lost land.
Ukrainian offensive on the right flank of the Russian northern prong. They don't even need to take territory, just tie down the enemy.
Ukrainian BMP-1 gunner operator.
This is rare video that shows usage of special vehicle-based tactical hammer.
Now this is a nice tidbit. Fighters from Syria and Libya.
What's not on the screenshot, that Mikolaev too is getting shelled.
They had time to modify and prepare the place. Ofc question is how much money, time and effort they could have been willing to put into it, if at all.
Yeah, the units which were tied down in the north, now will be available on the south east for both sides. How Russia can profit from this?
> The DPR say they are starting to clear Azovstal.
How much symbolic value that place can have as the last fortress of the resistance, and how much prestige loss it costs for the Russians to leave it on the hand of the enemy?
I think if those trapped inside could reach easily the public, the media they would be larger thorn on the side.
> it might be far too limited
> they might not be ambitious enough to go for Dnipro
Moscow might be satisfied to occupy the rest of the secessionist oblasts little by little. The two points where one would suspect them to push in to create the pocket serve just distractions, where they stage attacks to engage Ukro forces, chiefly with the danger of encirclement they mean (and not by the actual size of the force thrown into action), while from Luhansk and Donetsk, they move in and bite a settlement or two, day by day.
Ofc if they succeed, they just might push in from Izium and Polohy (let's designate that town as simple reference) like here: >>/47260/
> take Kherson
That would be a good idea, taking away the bridgehead which could be used for a push towards Odessa (too). What is the value of Kherson in general? I have guesses, it seems like a strategic location at the mouth of the Dnieper, but does it have more importance for one side than the other?
They tie down enemy forces who might be there to tie down enemy forces. Who ties down who in reality? 5d chess.
He really doesn't target much either. Maybe it's all fucked, and making loud noises is enough.
If it's true. Both sides have been claiming that the other is using Syrian mercenaries for a while now. Ukraine has some kind of Muslim brigade but I think that's Chechens but the Russians say it has Syrians etc in it as well, but again I don't know I believe it.
The Russians say they are not going to bother clearing Azovstal now, they will just blockade it. So there must not be much that the people in Azovstal can do to threaten them now. Which would make sense if they control the ground above the tunnels but I don't know if they do or not.
> Moscow might be satisfied to occupy the rest of the secessionist oblasts little by little.
Maybe, it depends on how confident they are in their own forces and how long they think they can keep this war going, I don't think anybody knows that but them.
As for Kherson, strategically it probably holds the same degree of importance to both sides, one wants a bridge head, the other doesn't want him to have it. But, postwar it probably has more value to Ukraine than Russia. I don't know what the situation on the Dnieper is in regards to river-born freight but if the Ukrainians do use it to move cargo from central Ukraine to the sea then if the Russians hold both banks of the mouth they will be unable to do that in the future.
Germany is going to backfill eastern European stocks of heavy weapons to enable eastern Europe to send more to Ukraine. Sad, that probably means Leopard-1s might not be sent there now, PZH 2000s are though, they call it a tank here for some reason when it's not one.... But then that seems to be the norm these days, the amount of times I see people calling BMPs tanks in this war already....
> What is the value of Kherson in general? I have guesses, it seems like a strategic location at the mouth of the Dnieper, but does it have more importance for one side than the
It is relatively large city, administrative center. It allows to officially make Kherson People Republic or similar entity for Russia.
> I don't know what the situation on the Dnieper is in regards to river-born freight but if the Ukrainians do use it to move cargo from central Ukraine to the sea
Dnieper is important transport route.
> might retreat the bulk of their good units from the front before they get encircled. But what if that's Putin's intention? He gets the land he wants at little cost
The actions, and more recently even the public statements, coming out of the US/UK/EU have been for weeks, openly, of proxy military war and direct economic war against the Russia. If what you hypothesize is what he wants, at this stage of the game, then he is stupid, or cowardly, or weak. Or any combination thereof. And if the evolution of the Russian state, nay, the Rus civilisation, because consequences of this war (if adverse enough) may prove to be that serious, if its evolution depends on the wants of one such man, or any one man (which I don't believe), then Russians deserve the next "revolution" coming their way. Alternatively, it's not that the kremlins are so pusillanimous but that the russian military is just amazingly weaker than it should be (also hard to believe). I don't understand it myself (>>/47133/). Russia doesn't need more land, doesn't even need the resources of that land. And the population in the Donbass, while loyal to the common all-russian-belorussian-ukrainian civilisation and thus probably a political asset for years to come (like the Crimea), is not in fact very productive or fertile (8 years of conflict has left the donbass at the bottom of various ukrainian health/productivity/education/QoL-related indices). What russia needs is to effect a strategic course-correction (indeed not a small one) in the Kiev govt and to physically and ideologically protect the loyal ukrainians from the Galitsiya jihadis, asymptomatic carriers of the "western liberalism", state ideology of the enemy empire.
> For the same reason he might settle for a "green bus" style deal in Mariupol
To put it mildly, this will not be well received by the people who saw their relatives prisoners-of-war purposely maimed, tortured, executed by such jihadis (in Mariupol or elsewhere). Or by the families of fallen soldiers who received taunts and mockery (courtesy of US facial-recognition internet-datamining companies). How will the russian police forces behave when asked to disperse hypothetical protesters demanding answers from a govt that did not react to the assault on fellow security personnel? It's the kind of thing that goes through my mind when I say "the kremlin would be walking on thing ice" (>>/47134/). A bit more than a century ago russia may have been just a few months from returning Constantinople to Christendom. Instead it was plunged into revolutionary chaos. Alas, if only it would have committed and striven a bit more. In a way, Kiev may come to resemble Constantinople.
> The retreat from northern Ukraine doesn't change a lot, Russia is moving forces to the east but naturally so is Ukraine
As the australian guy pointed out, it may be different for them if their fuel supplies and transportation means really have been sufficiently depleted. But I don't know if it's the case and I doubt it. In any case, while it may not change much for the eastern theater, I do think it is significant for the overall conflict. It's not just that the northern front was closed, but also that there are signs suggesting that it won't be re-opened soon (or at least that pressure is being applied by "the west" such that rus won't try to re-open it): some countries (czechia, france) talking about reopening their embassies in kiev; claims about some civilians going back to regions around kiev to check on relatives or properties or perhaps resettling; claims about us officials visiting kiev sometime soon; british military openly admitting to being back in the kiev region, training ukrs; and probably the most significant (if true, as usual, caveat emptor), claims about russia continuing to withdraw military equipment from bielorussia.
> Westerners attribute this to Russian incompetence rather than Ukrainian competence
Fighting wise, on the ground, they are similarly competent (big surprise since they are basically the same fucking people, apart from the ethnic minorities on either sides). In an overall comparison, absence of the "overwhelming victory" is due to a combination, to varying degrees depending on the topic, of russian incompetence and ukrainian+nato competence (e.g. in strategy/intel). But for propaganda/ideological purposes in the west it pays more to beat down "the incompetent/corrupt/stupid/ugly russkie" (very low-status! steer clear!) than to push "the competent ukrainan". Besides, it's easier, after so many decades of "russkie bad" it just comes out naturally. (Also, one should beware: claims of of a quick and overwhelming russian victory, publicly trotted out by the US pentagon suits e.g., were intended to prime the audience for a counterpoint, inflated then into a huge reversal of expectations, a triumph against odds.)
> but after a certain point this is no longer relevant, in areas with intense fighting residents leave
X for doubt. UAF has deliberately used residential areas and civilians there as contingency warranties. According to testimonies, if truthful, they could not leave, were not allowed to. So, indeed, after a certain point, but there is one such threshold for each contested population centre
> Their lack of manpower mobilization for [...] war might be a bigger factor at this point.
I believe I said so weeks ago, so we agree (but let's just say war, real war, or full war; Total War not needed). But then this also puts this other statement in perspective:
> Ukraine was always at a disadvantage with its smaller population and economy
Indeed, but the presumed overwhelming victory before the start of the conflict relied on the assumption that russia would in fact make full use of these advantages, which IMO it did not. Instead, it went into the conflict presuming/hoping it was going to be not qualitatively different than in 2014. Barely a day of initial air strikes. No administrative centres targeted. Communications, energy, water, sanitation left alone. And then just riding towards cities. Russia was way too optimistic about the situation and did not engage with the severity required (it still doesn't!)
> it really will be more extensive than just pro-Russian Ukrainians becoming less active
They were/are already "less active" since they became disillusioned with russia after seeing that crimea was rescued from the sinking ship, while the donbass, which even took arms, was not given a hand until the last minute, and only to keep them afloat, not to take them to shore. Back then in 2014 there were already movements for a "Kherson NR" and a "Kharkov NR" and an "Odessa NR". Since people were burned alive in Odessa no one dared speak up before it's clear which way the wind blows.
No, a russian "non-victory" will not make them less active, it will ensure they are either marginalised into extinction or (if young enough) digested by the nazi-larping Galitsiyan schizophrenia.
> camarederie on the frontlines [...] the national/foreigner distinction
Lots of them speak better russian (restricted) than ukrainian ("only official language"). In a sense, it is still a civil war
The French just got Buchaed. They have been asked to leave Mali of course and after they left one of their bases and handed it over to the Mali government and Wagner group, Wagner group says it uncovered mass graves.
So maybe they'll stage another offensive while they are at it, till they reach Moldova.
> Also, one should beware: claims of of a quick and overwhelming russian victory, publicly trotted out by the US pentagon suits e.g., were intended to prime the audience for a counterpoint, inflated then into a huge reversal of expectations, a triumph against odds.
Possibly, but it also has other sources. Confidence in Russian military power is common, even if not a consensus, and promoted by the Russians. Pro-Russian observers were also likely to underestimate Ukrainian resistance. For instance, Anatoly Karlin on the day before the invasion:
> All told, comparable to the force the US assembled against Iraq in 2003, with two decades’ worth of technological progress on top and multiple times the Americans’ artillery/missile firepower per soldier. The crushing power of artillery was already demonstrated in the World Wars, accounting for most casualties; since rifle power has seen scant technological progress since then, while artillery fire is now much more precise, the mismatch between rifle power and artillery power would have multiplied since. The morale/bravery of individual soldiers makes no significant difference. Even if it was very high (spoiler: it isn’t), any Ukrainian units caught out in the open will be spotted by drones and destroyed within minutes. Between this, and Russia’s total air and EW dominance, we will see a very quick collapse of any Ukrainian fronts, and mass surrender and/or defection to the Russian Army
> On a more general note, my impression is that the people who claim Ukrainian troops will offer serious resistance otherwise tend to either have a poor grasp on modern warfare, and/or are pro-Ukrainian partisans who have an understandable interest in trying to dissuade a Russian attack by making their capabilities out to be more threatening than they really are (i.e., blowfish strategy).
> The prominent presence of Rosgvardiya units and vehicles in videos, including avtozaks used for prisoner transport, suggests that the Russian authorities share my view that the military operation will be over quickly, and that much subsequent energy will have to be expended on putting down urban riots by agitated svidomy in shock and disbelief from having their many delusions crash all around them (e.g., their “strongest army in Europe” lasting no more than a few days tops against alcoholic katsap vatniks)
He himself got caught up in enthusiasm, because in 2018 he made a balanced assessment: post-2014 Ukraine didn't have an economic collapse, anti-Russian sentiment grew and their military strengthened.
> Lots of them speak better russian (restricted) than ukrainian ("only official language"). In a sense, it is still a civil war
Language never stopped Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks. If Ukrainian nationalism isn't humiliated, it will come out more real in the minds of the masses than before. It being a civil war won't stop the us/them psychology, civil wars increase hate between two sides in the nation.
Survival Russia Day 50 something of embargo and sanctions.https://youtube.com/watch?v=1NPCHnIjx8k
Some stuff got really expensive, most stuff normal.
That one "shop from the Soviet times" is funny.
Some buildup in the south, both west and on the Veliki Novosilka front. From Izium and the inner side of the curve the attacks continue towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, seems like a slow but steady gain.
Will things get better or worse during the oncoming months? That is the real question
Here's some videos from a Russian girl who lives in Far East Russia and how she feels about everything. It's from Natasha Adventures
And here's a bunch of other videos from other Russian grils if bernds are interested
Also, how common is Natasha as a name in Russia? Just one search for that name I got liek 10 different channels
The Russians have redeployed several forces from Mariupol, I guess they'll leave a screening force to maintain the siege of Azovstal and use the rest for the southern prong of their encirclement. But it's quite a slow encirclement, at this pace it's easy for the Ukrainians to retreat.
> Will things get better or worse during the oncoming months?
> Also, how common is Natasha as a name in Russia?
Pretty common. Although real name is Natalya/Natalia, Natasha is a short, less formal form (diminutive).
> I'm fine, not arrested... yet...
That Svetlana chick really knows the prices. That's how women are wired, they look at you and will know exactly how much that clothing cost.
Also Sweat Lana might be an good porn name.
> was at Kremlin, showed some nice spectacular things about Russia
> ergo she is a putinbot
The mind of an average yt commenter.
And it coincides with the heat NFKRZ gets.
She also lives in Moscow. Moscow is basically a western city in certain areas. She also visits a mall liek Svetlana. Ofc that also reflects some reality.
I heard those guys closed down the joints, but kept the employees on the payroll.
What's the name of Kazakh grill?
> how common
Quite. But that name is used all over the world in some form, even at us (although it's rare).
I think the prongs are there for the threat they pose. There will be assaults from them, and they'll be ahead of the other parts of the front, but they'll take the land they want to take by going little by little from the inner part of the circle, done by the forces of the people republics.
This could be a potential Kursk if they would go for encirclement. I dunno how much forces the Ukrainians still have and their cohesiveness and how they are equipped. But attacking from the prongs has the potential of getting mired down in subsequent defense lines, paying high price in life and equipment for a gamble.
I believe we still overestimate the strength that used in this campaign. I could even say overestimate Russia's capabilities. I also not sure how much strength is still in Ukraine. It could be true that "demilitarization" was effective, but maybe not.
We'll see what they have in store, but I will be surprised if they really go for encirclement.
Or Sweet Lana if we don't wanna be that vulgar.
The Russians are making some progress, it's hard to say how much and what it actually means given the little information that is available. Yes there are videos of Russian and DPR forces wandering around captured Ukrainian positions strewn with corpses and destroyed equipment but that doesn't actually tell you much other than that they are advancing which we know. That could be a tough battle fought to the death over a vital position and the Brigade that it was a part of has been mauled, or it could just be the remnants of a rear guard action or a screen and the Brigade is perfectly fine.
Maybe, they have to break through first and then there will be rapid movements. Which relates to my post, we don't know if they are breaking through or how close they are to that.
They took some territory there the other day and they are also sending raids into Belgorod, or attempting too. A Ukrainian column was destroyed trying to get into Russia. Threatening Russia herself like that is a good idea in that it might tie up forces but if they pursue that too far it will back fire on them badly, at them moment Russia is limited in what it sends due to the fact that they are saying this is nto a war and so they can't mobilise or send conscripts, but if Ukraine cause too much damage in Belgorod the Russians might change their stance on whether this is a war or not.
Events are happening in Transnistria.
Moldova is preparing for a possible Russian invasion and Russian media(well South Front) is saying that a Modova-Poland-Romanian alliance is preparing to invade Transnistria.
It seems like Russia is laying the grounds for an invasion of Moldova which was always likely to happen. But, it seems too soon. They aren't close enough to invade yet, sure they have forces there already but they are trapped and would not be enough to invade Moldova alone, they would just run out of supplies and maybe even get hit by Ukraine in turn.
It's about 190km from the Russian positions outside of Kherson to Transnistria(as the crow flies or roughly enough, I allowed for the mouth of the southern Bug). That's a long way and they have to get through Mikolaive first.
Russia things they can get to Transnistria a lot faster than would be immediately apparent i.e. the Ukrainian forces are weak or next to nothing which I don't believe.
Russia things making up the excuse early will somehow be less suspicious to the international community and so they are starting that now.
Or, Russia plans to start the war with what forces it has in the area and use that as an excuse to push through the south of Ukraine to help protect the defenders of Transnistria.
I meant thinks, my spelling is atrocious...
> Which would make sense if they control the ground above the tunnels but I don't know if they do or not.
I believe they only got surface control of a section, northwards and closer to civilian settlements. It's an interesting decision. Blockaded it was already. Continuing the blockade in the hopes that they run out of supplies, and hunger and thirst force them to surrender, means some of their forces remain occupied there. It shows that they either don't have the means to smoke them out (without taking huge casualties by trying to storm in), or are nervous about there being a sliver of truth to Azov's claims of civilians inside, or really really want them alive to parade them in Moscow.
> So either...
You only mentioned the Nato-Ukraine-Moldova side of the story. It is indeed too soon for rus to try something like that, so I'm not ready to believe it. There were "provocations" in Transnistria for 2 days (autonomous region of moldova for ~100 years, separated during the dissolution of the SU, unrecognized independence, pro-rus, has hosted russian peacekeers for decades):
- Explosions at the building of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, a military compound near the village of Parkany, and tv/radio towers (whose broadcast included russian signals) near Mayak. Notice: security administration building, military unit, and communications, these are typical initial targets for a military take-over.
- President of Transnistria claims that signs point toward ukrainian sabotages
- Potential goals for Ukr: diversion of russian forces to try and reinforce the small russian peacekeeping mission stationed there; siezing a large arsenal under russian control there; getting Moldova involved in the war.
- "Strike Tiraspol to save Mariupol", Butusov, a former military advisor to kiev
- Ukraine blames russian false flag
- Head of Moldova (a woman who has recently vilified the russian st. george ribbon, a symbol of WW2 victory) claims that the attacks probably originated from opposing forces within transnistria
- High terrorism alert declared. Checkpoints have been set up.
- There are claims of Ukr forces amassing in that direction
- Some civilian cars are crossing into Moldova proper
- Claims that aircraft are avoiding Moldova
Want to reply to more things but no time
Push from the NE, shelling in the south.
Loud music in the west and some operation of the ground troops there too at Mikolaev.
Leopards are finally being send to Ukraine! Sort off. Gepards are being sent and they are half a Leopard, but that should help bridge the gap from Soviet tanks to leopards as they will already be learning to maintain half the tank and half the spare parts will be interchangeable(maybe). But apparently there might be some issues with the transfer to Ukraine because the Ammunition used for it is made by a Swiss company and they refuse to allow it to be sent because of Swiss neutrality, but maybe they can find some other ammunition for it.
Raytheon can't mass produce Stingers until 2023-24, they say they don;t have toe required components to make them in bulk and that some of these components are no longer on the commercial market so they have to design them themselves.
It's possible as well I suppose. It makes some sense for Ukraine to invade Transistria now while they have the chance, it would remove a Russian thorn and net them Thousands of POWs if they could hold out until Russian forces in the east arrived. But like Russia they need to fabricate a reason too no matter how flimsy.
> say they don;t have toe
say they don't have the
He says that from their experiences training Jordanians and Chileans on the Marder, it takes 2-3 weeks to train them on the system provided that the trainees already have been trained in this field. Not much else that is interesting is said. But that's not long and certainly doable.
Just in time to stop the Russians in the Carpathians.
Another day, another map.
How serious are those attacks in the west? They were way further towards NW, but withdrawn probably for reorganization of the front, shuffling units, adding new ones. I think these are just preliminary probing attacks. Checking resistance.
That's the war in a nutshell. We just don't know.
Firstly though I think much of this information comes from Ukrainian sources, so it's always going to be skewed to make them look good. It could have just been a skirmish or a few Russians took some pot shots and then left but they will report it as being an attack that they bravely thwarted off.
But secondly, like anything we don't know what is happening on the ground and the kind of actions that are going on. DPR sources often release footage of DPR troops wandering through Ukrainian positions that are strewn with corpses and destroyed equipment but even that doesn't actually tell you much, that could have been a delaying action or a screen and those were just a few unfortunate sods that were left behind and the unit is still fine, or it could have been a tough and hard fought battle over important positions and the damage they have taken has mauled the unit.
It looks like the VDV is in Mariupol now. This video is about some kind of radar that is meant to be able to track people and vehicles 10km away and how they are using it to find Azov positions, but you will see that one of the vehicles they show firing is a BMD marked with a V.
I guess that makes sense, it seems like they were mauled in the north and they probably won't be doing any more airborne operations, so now they may as well be used to maintain the siege in Mariupol. That and one of the uses they may have in the future would be the support of an assault on Odessa, and so being located in Mariupol now will mean they can be sent on that mission much faster.
Yes, you wrote similar. I concur.
That's a handy gadget. I bet they have many other. At least they should have.
But then they should have legions of Armatas and shit.
Ahh, so I did.
I suspect that if they have something like that then the west has something much better, weather they are in the hands of Ukrainians or not is a separate matter.
The Ukrainians launched a few attacks around Kharikiv, these were successful and took a few villages. They launched a counter attack towards the Russians advancing towards Sloviansk but that went badly for them and there are apparently now up to 1000 Ukrainians who have been cut off. There was a video released of a Ukrainian soldier standing in front of 30 other soldiers making some kind of plea for help, basically their unit was cut off and they felt like they had been abandoned and that there officers had left them and so they broke out of the encirclement and now they make a plea to not be tried as deserters, they say they still want to fight but not in the 79th brigade, they want to be sent to defend Mykolaiv in another unit. I don't know if this was part of that group of possibly up to 1000 that was said to have been cut of or if this is another group.
But regarding Mykolaiv, the Russians are moving to cut of the Ukrainian forces around Oleksandrivka which is a town by the sea, the Ukrainians have said they are planning a counter attack however.
Also apparently the DPR forces found the notebook of the commander of Azov battalion.
Here is the video.
Some of 'em pushing 40.
Suddenly whole lotta nothing. Peace broke out or what?
Really nice that one can just waltz into Russian held territory and evacuate people from there or bring supplies in. Was that a regular thing or they were captures on the first mission I wonder.
> in the foreign meddling in Ukraine, Moscow also took its part
Indeed. For example, they were backing Yanukovich while USA was backing Yushchenko. But it should be said, to Moscow and to most Russians and Ukrainians (with millions, maybe tens of millions, of familial bonds), the Ukraine (with its artificial borders including regions carved out of historical Russia, mostly by soviets) was never just another foreign country. These are not equivalent "meddlings".
> Russia has interest to gain [...] land
Doubtful, they already have more land than they can optimally defend given their population and fertility
> so has no interest in a calm and stable Ukraine.
This is completely backwards. Why would the Russia want chaos on its doorstep? Apparently "limited chaos" (oxymoron, I mean war) was preferable to a stable NATO puppet grown out of a historical russian region, but the one that instigated the chaos was not Russia
> On her behalf the Russian (speaking) minority is a tool to gain geopolitical advantages which lost when the SU fall apart.
There is some truth here. I think for example of how the donbass was supported by moscow in their conflict with kiev, but not decisively (perhaps enough so that donbass wouldn't fall, but not enough to compel kiev to write off donbass and crimea and, now without outstanding conflicts, apply for nato). People have explained how rus was not economically prepared for it back then, and considering that its economy seems to be holding on so far, they may have a point. But given the scope of the conflict now and how much militarily easier it would have been then, I doubt it was such a great idea. Such theory would seem to support the description of "tool", but, given their relationship, it's not the same as US using Kiev as "tool".
Wrt to geopolitical advantage: The statu quo ante was disrupted by USA trying to gain geopolitical advantage far away from its traditional region of influence and right next to russia (it is not just geography either as I tried to explain in previous posts). So it's more accurate to say they would be trying to prevent a geopolitical disadvantage (further encroachment of nato) or to retain their historical geopolitical influence. (It's not like moscow is reclaiming its geopolitically advantageous influence over Mexico, gone with SU, if you follow me.)
> Well, a total war in a sense that they use any tools they can come up with. The dirty war might be a better expression, since total war...
Exactly, that's what I meant, hence "total war" (his phrase) in quotes
> Plus for those who flee the men of the families will join, and they are those who fear or despise Russia and active enough to do something
Right, but this is a longer-term consideration after the hot part of the conflict ends. It is not applicable right now because men (fighting age) are not allowed to leave
> I doubt refugees will return
My thoughts too
> I find it not easy to give opinion about these in general. But regardless if these true or not, their use in propaganda is obvious.
Yes, I also withheld any conclusion, as any reasonable observer would before independent forensic investigations have uncovered and presented evidence of who killed whom. I simply added that, in case it's not obvious that claims of atrocities by one party cannot be taken at face value, it's even easier to be sceptical about kiev's claims given the brazen, utterly mendacious propaganda it has put out before, and I'll add, given the outspoken brutality with which it has vowed to treat and has treated citizens friendly towards russia:
- Ukrainian military positions in Kramatorsk was allegedly leaked by a ukrainian, after the strike the mayor issued threats and then claimed that they had summarily executed someone as reprisal (pics). Incidentally, this was many days before the Tochka-U strike on the train station of the same town that allegedly killed tens of civilians. What if the pro-rus support in Kramatorsk is not isolated? Not hard to imagine since it's in Donbass. Are the cries about the killed civilians in Kramatorsk genuine? Also, it's kind of interesting how buzz about that attack hushed after photos of the of the missile showing the serial number were published. It was in the format and range of other Tochkas used by kiev against the donbass in previous years; not that it couldn't be faked, but still, buzz died down.
- Last week, Vitaly Kim (koryo?), governor of Nikolayev, said on live tv (the same Ukraina24 channel of which I posted before) that those that cooperate with russia will be executed extrajudicially, and claimed that a "special force" was operating to "eliminate traitors"
- Some days ago, the mayor of Balakeya in Kharkov was charged with "treason" by Kiev for accepting humanitarian aid from russian forces. Are these the ground on which kiev is to execute its citizens, as Kim said? Did the Bucha residents cooperate with russians too? What about those bodies with white armbands?
Things to consider. (Notice that these are just the ones uttered by the ukie officials themselves.)
> In the heart of a free and democratic Europe
Pure clownery, he's channeling his inner Zelensky
I don't think Uncle Nato would approve, unless he gets a piece of the pie as well. But I wonder what's the view of magyars towards their co-ethnics in the ukraine. Do they want that transcarphatian patch bad enough? A few weeks ago I read some Hungarian official addressing them by saying that "the motherland would always be with them" or somethign like that. If Hungary were to move in, Poland would probably too. It would mean nato expansion, though, so situation would have to become really difficult for russia to go along with it. (But I guess in some scenarios they might, considering that this far-west area was the least russified, cf. orthodox vs. catholics)
> Fighters from Syria and Libya.
Probably bs. That claim has been trotted in and out for weeks, without a shred of evidence so far. Relatedly, Kadyrov recently offered $1M in rewards to anyone who reveals the locations of alleged Ichkerian batallions (CIA-backed islamists that fought and lost against Kadyrov father in Chechnya). Liveuamaps is very biased, specially in the news selection. For maps the least obviously biased used to be the one by the french forein ministry, probably why they got them to stop
That's not true, it was not Wagner who said it. It was the Mali military and govt officials. Le Monde then posted an article where the French Army claimed they had drone footage of people burying bodies (when? where?). They said this was "very precise" information that led them to conclude that it was the act of the wagner group (or whatever it's called nowadays), Yet they also said that this "very precise" footage was of so bad quality that skin colour could not be distinguished and all it could acertain was that the men's attire did not match the pattern of the Mali army uniform. Unlike the wes
(continue) >>/47381/ >>/47323/
Unlike the western european govts regarding bucha, russian officials commenting on the matter did not accuse France of a massacre, they asked for a "thorough investigation". Btw, it was not in the base, but nearby, and the Mali army said the bodies were in "advanced level of putrefaction", so it couldn't be a very recent grave/dead.
> Possibly, but it also has other sources.
Well, yes, I added a missing side of the story, but when I say that the russians were way too optimistic and, relatedly, that there is a component of incompetence in the realms of strategy/intel, I am agreeing with you: the pro-russia side, too, played "media games" (with different intentions, and perhaps partly on themselves, as it turns out). (That article is interesting. He got some things spot on, like the invasion happening which I did not believe was coming, but in others he was far off the mark, like the difficulty of the task. Was he playing "media games" too, partly on himself?)
> Language never stopped Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks. If Ukrainian nationalism isn't humiliated, it will come out more real in the minds of the masses than before.
Is not just language that's close, but in general I agree, and I'll add that there is probably something stupid in the mind of the Slavs, so given to infighting as they seem to be, even when it's obvious that they are being played against each other (often cleverly exploited by the Germanic or Anglo-Saxon). Maybe this is part of why I didn't believe they would really fight a war blatantly set up by a 3rd power. To me there just had to be some other way out of the situation. (Although, tbh I still don't know what that could have been, apart from the military-threat-based economic-pressure which I mentioned before. After diplomatic [e.g. endless diversion from implementing Minsk], political [e.g. arrested/killed politicians], mediatic [e.g. media closed by decree] means had failed, not sure what was left. Perhaps resorting to the unsavoury and dishonest clandestine assassinations typical of e.g. israel? Hopefully the Chinese are able to find another way, unlike the Slavs.)
> It being a civil war won't stop the us/them psychology, civil wars increase hate between two sides in the nation.
Again, I agree. Until/unless one side is defeated (US, Spain). But if that happens there is an easy way back to, if not friendship, at least compatible coexistence. It's why I say russia should be fighting "lvov", symbolically that's the seat of the ideology currently in power in ukraine. The "ukrainians" in kiev are actually "lvovites". If russia had the capability, ambition, and guts and to definitively solve the issue, to put an end to "lenin's little-russian empire", it should make this distiction and strike at the core their adversary, giving regular ukrainians an easy way to distance themselves from the "galitsiyan jihadism". However, as said before, it would seem that at least 1 of those 3 is missing.
Video was published of the attack on the govt building (are those rpg canisters not reusable? Why leaving them to be found?)
- There are more reports of suspicious activity: shootings, drones.
- Reports that kiev is holding "military exercises" in the oblast bordering Transnistria. Mutual game of threats and diversions? Invasion intended to ensure nato/romania supplies from the south? Poland and Romania also reportedly doing "military exercises"
- Bulgaria and Izrael tell their citizens to leave transnistria and avoid moldavia. Some time later reports of western countries also recommending to avoid the place
- Transnistria MoD requested mobilization (apparently not yet granted)
The Russians are still saying that Ukraine and possibly Romania and Moldova plan to invade Transnistria. Romania is moving troops and equipment towards Moldova apparently 8000 so far, but then I would say they are just securing their borders which is completely understandable given there is a war right on their doorstep and a possible invasion of Moldova incoming. The Russians say that the Ukranians are gathering units in the area as well including foreign mercenaries such as the 'Grey Wolves' a Turkish far right group. Whatever the reasons behind these movements, Russia was likely to invade anyway and this just gives them more of an excuse, they will stage some provocation and say they are protecting the ethnic Russians in Transnistria.
What is even more bizarre is that they are saying Poland will cease control of western Ukraine. I'll just post what they are saying.
> “According to information received by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Washington and Warsaw are working on plans to establish tight military and political control over ‘their historical possessions’ in Ukraine,” Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Sergei Naryshkin said.
> According to the FIS, the first stage of the “reunification” should be the introduction of Polish troops into the western regions of Ukraine under the guise of their “protection against Russian aggression”. Modalities for the upcoming mission are being discussed with the Biden administration. “According to preliminary agreements, it will take place without a NATO mandate, but with the participation of ‘willing states’. Warsaw has not yet been able to agree on potential participants in a ‘coalition of like-minded’,” the FIS said.
> At the same time, the FIS pointed out, the Polish leadership is not interested in “unnecessary spies” in its operation. “The so-called peacekeeping contingent is planned to be deployed in those parts of Ukraine where the threat of direct clash with the Russian Armed Forces is minimal. And the priority “combat tasks” of the Polish military will include gradual interception of control over strategic objects located there from the National Guard of Ukraine. Polish special services are already searching for “agreeable” representatives of the Ukrainian elite to form a Warsaw-oriented “democratic” counterweight to the nationalists,” the FIS said in its report.
> According to the Polish administration’s estimates, a preventive entrenchment in western Ukraine is highly likely to split the country. Warsaw will essentially gain control of the territories where “Polish peacekeepers” will enter. Essentially, it is an attempt to repeat the historical “deal” for Poland after the First World War, when the collective West, represented by the Entente, recognized Warsaw’s right first to occupy part of the Ukraine to protect its population from the “Bolshevik threat”, and then to incorporate those territories into the Polish state. The events that followed were a clear illustration of the colonial order and forced polonisation as the main methods of building a ‘Greater Poland’,” the FIS concluded.
I don't see how this makes any sense. I think they would only do something like this if the war was clearly about to be lost, but it could be that this is a contingency plan formed up for that event and the Russians somehow found out about it. Or the Russians are making it up to drive a wedge between the west and Ukraine. Anyway, Poland is also conducting military exercises next month which Russia says is a pretext for this plan(I guess they would know all about that).
If Ukraine directs force to there, those will be missing elsewhere.
If the Russians succeed in the south they can retake Transnistria if it falls.
This talks about 50 Leopard 2s from Rheinmetall
The landmass is relative. Most defends itself (ie. punishing terrain), most of the borders are more or less secure, plus they have the nuclear arsenal as deterrent. Sure they have long shoreline in the far east and some in the Black Sea basin, but the only direction not counting Ukraine (which is more than doubtful would attack Russia) is just there in the north.
Meanwhile they always tried to gain lands towards the Balkans since they got out of the Mongol yoke, they sure know what position they lost after the fall of the SU, and even in this war they seem to want Southern Ukraine. If they have no interest in those lands, then why they want to take it?
> Why would the Russia want chaos on its doorstep?
Because it is always an easy excuse for intervention. Just look at how this turmoil with the Donbas people's republics played out. Plus if no stable neighbour is present, no real threat from that direction. You see this war is actually pretty fucking great for Hungary (and every neighbour actually), at least Ukraine and Russia are too busy with each other, they don't have time for much else, and Ukraine has to lick the arses of everyone, this war should never end.
The Russians are using Dolphins in Ukraine now.
> If Ukraine directs force to there, those will be missing elsewhere.
Maybe, though at the moment they might be able to afford to. They would probably have reserves in that region anyway and as the Russians have not even reached Mykolaiv right now they have plenty of time to use them for that. But also Ukraine doesn't lack manpower anyway, it lacks manoeuvrer warfare formations. But they probably don't need those to invade Transnistria. If they want too.
> This talks about 50 Leopard 2s from Rheinmetall
I think they mistook Leopard 1s for Leopard 2s because 50 was the number that was first thrown about for that or they mistook 20 for 50 in what I will mention next.
But I found this article that says that Rheinmetall wants to sell them 20 Leopard 2s as well as 88 Leopard 1s now, it also mentions the 100 Marders that Rheinmetall also want to sell to Ukraine. That's reasonable if they can get it.
Lot of talks and lot of plans. When they fulfill the promises the Leopard 2s gonna be PzIIs.
How far those artillery pieces can reach? If they deployed there I assume they were with the purpose to support an attack on Zaporozhia too, without the need to move them.
Also a military column was noted to travel through Voronezh. More troops incoming?
There is nothing wrong with Panzer IIs, it's better than the Marder
Both the Marder and the Panzer II have 20mm auto-cannons.
The Panzer II is 1.99m tall by 2.22m wide whereas the Marder is 2.98m tall by 3.24m wide.
Panzer II is 8.8t Marder 1A3 is 33.5t
While the Panzer II can only go 39.5kph the Luchs can get to 60kph, the Marder 1A3 can get to 65kph.
All in all it seems the Panzer II is the better platform and I can see that if it was modernised it would be far outclass anything on the market today.
The only issue is that they don't carry infantry...
According to South Front, the new Russian plan is to wear down the Ukrainians with artillery and airpower and then advance because they lack the forces for rapid advances and this way they are going to reduce casualties but the war will take much longer. Maybe, it could be true or they will make rapid moves once the Ukrainian defence is broken.
But if it is true it's could be an issue for them as well, Ukraine is beginning their fourth round of mobilization now and they are getting more and more equipment form the west, I give up even posting what nations are sending now, though most the time they are small batches of random pieces of equipment so the force will be quite hodge podge and we don't know how longe this supply effort can last. But I don't think time is on Russia's side here.
Though we don't really know what state the Ukrainian army is in nor the nation itself and how much they can be supplied. It might be that Russia feels that they can no longer effectively use whatever the west gives them(because it can't get them to the front, they lack trained formations to use it and don't feel they can train more easily, they lack fuel to drive them etc) or that the west is running out of what it can send. I think if they decide to send Leopard Is that will open the flood gate to Turkish and Greek Leopards as both have hundreds in storage but making them operational may take years and that's if they even want to send them.
I believe they just might do that. It will be great to raise military spending, gonna create jobs too, people of Europe will think they produce for a just cause against Russian tyranny. Prices will rise due to various scarcities.
> According to South Front, the new Russian plan is to wear down the Ukrainians with artillery and airpower and then advance because
It would be smarter to just quit while they still can. It wouldn't even be a Pyrrhic victory at this point if anything good where to happen to Russia.
New video from NFKRZ about Russian economy and ruble
Spoilers: Russia is still suffering
He's got a lot of new videos some from Georgia
And rap artist Lil B made a peace song about conflict if bernd is interested in listening to negercore while browsing this thread
NFKRZ kinda reminds me of Peter I of Russia for some reason. Dunno. Same face and hair
Maybe we should invite nkfrz here. Mayb
Also wanted to leave this here. Because why not
The Hungarian news site I usually cite, Index is shitting on Russian Victory Day parade. They made a comparison of last year's and current year's military hardware used.
Helicopters: 23 -> 15;
Sukhois: 10 -> 0;
Mig-29: 4 -> 16;
Armored vehicles: 198 -> 131;
T-80: 114 -> 10(!);
BMP-3: 6 -> 3;
Also I made a screenshot of situation yesterday, just forgot to post. However the news snippets there is interesting.
First the evacuation of Transnistria - well at least the families of the officers (I assume the families of the low ranking crew - conscripts and contracted - has no reason to move with the unit).
The other is the rebase of the F-16 unit.
Yeah I follow him since you suggested a while back.
All of his new videos are from Georgia. He moved there.
He really looks similar. Maybe it's on purpose, he did after moved to St. Petersboro.
> beard tax
We learn about that in high school.
Also caught something on Flightradar few days back. I dunno how extraordinary is this since I'm not a big lurker, but I checked and right now there is similar coming and going over Poland, and a C-130 is flying over Hungary.
Now EU shitheads want oil embargo against Russia, and stop all oil import from there in 6 months. For Northern Hungary and us (and Czechia too actually, with their leftlib govt they just follow suit quietly - against their own interests), this would lead to unforeseeable consequences. So we won't agree, and it seems we can get away with importing Russian oil. Bulgaria also joined, and asked for exemption.
Russians say that most EU country who buys Russian oil now, still will, even with the embargo, except they'll buy it through a middle man, for more.
Not really, it depends on what they manage to achieve. I don't think they are going to stop in Donbass.
More counter attacks have been launched by Ukraine, they do not seem to have achieved anything so far.
Anyway, to the right is the unit of 1000 Ukrainians that I mentioned before that had counter attacked and then been operationally cut off. You can see that while they are not encircled there is only one road that reaches them and that road gets to abut 500m from Russia positions, so it's unlikely they can use it for logistics which is probably why they are saying they are operationally encircled. But you can also see another Ukrainian counter attack that might be hoping to link up with them and also cut the Russians off, that or just stall the Russian advance in general.
There are videos of M177 howitzers and Bushmasters being used in Ukraine as well now.
But they still have their Armatas, Bummerangs and Terminators. Next year will be better, they will probably have some M113s and Bushmasters to parade around as well.
Yes, I heard about the west evacuating officials from Transpistrian, that's exactly what they did before the war in Ukraine started. But again, I don't see how Russia can invade anytime soon.
These guys: >>/47376/ >>/47377/ ?
They are on picrel, east of Sloviansk.
But those guys on the map do seem to be cut off too. The red coloring is misleading ofc. In theory they could move through that woodland south of there but can't say from here what's the terrain actually is there and what the Russians control, either actually, or by holding under fire.
Yes, but not the guys from the video I think. The guys from the video say they are in Yampol so I think maybe the lads from the video are from what you are talking about and not >>/47444/
The guys on the video are in Yampol/Yampil, in the map I posted.
What I wrote:
> But those guys on the map
Is referring to the map you posted.
The Chechens are fighting near Svieriodonetsk now. They captured a browning and a DP-29.
Uranian took back a decent amount of territory around Kharkiv, I don't know how hard the Russians are trying to hold it though. The Russians are saying they have only got a small holding force there to distract Ukraine.
That blue marker with the handcuffs is saying that the Ukrainians have detained 11 snipers. Hmmm.... It sounds dubious as I don't see why snipers would be left behind like that particularly 11 of them, though this was common in WW2, Russian snipers would stay in trees or other locations right up until their positions were reached but I don't see that happening now, more likely they are just random Russian soldiers they are calling snipers.
I think in Vietnam they called snipers random guerillas taking potshots at GIs. Maybe we should decode it as "lone gunman".
A new Austrian military academy video about the fighting in Donbass.
He says the Russians are facing numerous issues but one of them he mentions is strength. The Ukrainians are organised in Brigades not BTGs but it's estimated that the Russians have 93 BTGs in the east and Ukraine the equivalent of 81 and then he repeats the oft repeated maxim that the attacker must have a 4 to 1 advantage. I strongly disagree with this and I wonder where it even came from as there are no wars that actually support this. I heard it mentioned either in an anime or a taiga drama referring to an attack on a Castle which does make a lot more sense, maybe they are all quoting this but taking it out of context.
But also!!! I looked at the link he had at the bottom of one of his slides and found this. It's amazing you are going to love it.
That shit definitely looks good. Awesome contribution.
Another example from questionable map coloring choices.
If they wouldn't control the hinterland in that bend of the river were they build a pontoon bridge there? They assaulting the other side, where the Ukrainians are.
They fixed it. I think it's just that they can only go on what information they have and what information is confirmed plus there is a delay between events on the map and the map painting itself.
All the ladies are visiting Ukraine.
This article lists lost Ukrainian armaments since the beginning of the war. The source they cite is Igor Konasenkov mayor general, spokesman of Russian Ministry of Defence.
299 AA missile systems
2949 armored vehicles (including tanks)
342 multiple rocket launchers
1423 artillery pieces (including mortars)
2769 "special" military vehicles
Pontoon was destroyed. But it seems Russians reached the village nearby. The Telegram post says "infiltration". But it sounds like just the troops which managed to cross but with the pontoon destroyed trapped on the other side.
I found part of a Ukrainian cross this time...
Also, the Russians lost Snake Island. Kind off. I think the issue is that whoever is there is incredibly vulnerable to air power so the Russians left and when the Ukrainians tried to take it back they got hammered by the air so they pulled back. So I don't think anybody holds it now.
Huh? Livuamap has adds? I use Ublock origin on Firefox and I never even see that.
Probably they were scouts that cut cut off when the Ukrainians attacked the bridge.
> Belarusian special operation forces
> I found part of a Ukrainian cross this time...
> Snake Island
It is too exposed.
Yeah. On FF I have Ublock and no ads, on PM I have uMatrix and that allows that pink rectangles, but no actual ads.
They are quite the most special forces.
They crossed that river elsewhere.
India bans wheat export.
> “Indian ban will lift global wheat prices. Right now there is no big supplier in the market,” the second dealer said.
Well, India really is among the largest producers, but their export doesn't reflect that, it isn't proportionate. Sure it will be missed from the market but it is dwarfed by the amount Russia and Ukraine usually offers.
Also we're gonna bank from this (too).
Day 78 of Sanctions, by Survival Russia
tl;dr goods prices are fine (some a bit higher, some returned to lower), no shortages, fuel is unchanged.
The Howitzers sent to the Ukrainians have been downgraded it seems. They have had there digital targetting systems removed these provided satellite global positioning, inertial navigation, radio, Gun Display Unit (GDU) and Section Chief Assembly (SCA).
The first variant does not have these but the starting with the second they do.
What's up with this?
I assume those pieces were modernized with the gadgets. Did they thought better to keep the electronics, or maybe the whole system which they were part of wasn't shipped, or it is quicker to skip the training and just use them as is? Especially if the probability of short time of service is high?
Russians are back on Snake Island now.
Maybe they are afraid that they will be captured.
I found a manual on the system.
> Fire commands are used by the FDC to give the howitzer sections all the information necessary to start, conduct, and cease firing. In a battery without BCS, fire commands must be sent by voice. In a battery using BCS, fire commands are sent digitally from the computer to the gun display unit (GDU) at the howitzer. Initial fire commands include all elements necessary for orienting, loading, and firing the piece. Subsequent fire commands must include only those elements that have changed, except quadrant elevation. Quadrant elevation is given in every fire command and allows the howitzer section to load and fire, if in a when ready (WR) status.
These kinds of system look fairly complex and they seem to require additional systems to send this data to the howitzers and the system sending the data to the howitzers probably has to get that information somewhere so it probably relies on an entire network of systems to be able to use the GDU which Ukraine may not have or have the ability to maintain or operate.
My guess is that military aid sent to such conflicts isnt top tech most of the time. Like we sent them a bunch of t72 tanks even though we have better ones.
It's a way of ditching old equipment, so uncle state can buy new shiny ones.
Now I'm thinking if a nucular war breaks out, the nuclear explosions generate electromagnetic pulses which kill electronic equipment. NATO with all those high tech gadgets will be BTFO-ed, everything will be useless.
Essentially a conventional war after a nuclear strikes will be won by the side which has old, analog equipment, and uses side rules for computing shit.
"Hundreds" of the Azovstal defenders surrendered (and transported to Russia). Some remains, unknown how many.
Lies! Russia will lose and crumble under embargo.
According to Hungarian media:
- according to Ukrainian sources 53 wounded and 211 men were evacuated from the factory.
- according to Russian sources 250 armed personnel surrendered.
Apparently there are heavy clashes in the Sumy region on the border. A few days ago they launched a probing attack there as well. I'm not sure what they hope to achieve as Ukraine has far more in the area than they do. Unless they bring up more force but why bother attacking there again? It could be a distraction but even then.
A DPR soldier person said they were all injured. That may be it, it makes sense for the Ukrainians to release them if they are just going to take resources.
An interesting talk about the Ukraine war.
A lot of it focuses on the issues that Russia is having with manpower, one interesting thing that was mentioned is apparently the Russians went in quite understrength due to the fact that most contract soldiers in the Russian military are put in technical roles and most of the simple roles like infantry are filled by conscripts(which of course can't be used) so many BTGs are limited in size and far smaller than they should be particularly regarding infantry.
Many more surrendered.
I listened that for a while, might finish it later.
It does seem Russian Armed Forces has problems with manpower, and the general feeling is that morale is low. But is morale really, and does Ukraine fares better?
Maybe after Azovstal is cleaned out, some additional units will be freed for tasks.
Also that bloke looks like Varg.
Interesting. I wonder how many are left, it's saying top leaders are still in there but it can't be just the top leaders by themselves, they would not last long. But it seems like this is still developing and more are being released every day. Maybe it is a total surrender(or evacuation if you are the BBC).
I don't know how many units are actually tied up there now anyway, the Chechens are already in another area, DPR units moved northwards too. Troops might need to stay there to garrison and secure the city as well. But some should be freed.
One thing I thought of in regards to manpower. While Russia can't really use conscripts to attack Ukraine. It could incorporate what it takes into Russia and then technically the Conscripts would be serving in Russia so it could use them to hold what it takes.
Also there are Terminators in Ukraine now.
DIssapointed, I expected music from the movie.
Shuffling around troops. Scraping bottom of the barrel?
Soem Guns 'n' Roses.
Something needs to be done about the rampant Nintendo extremism in the Ukrainian army.
He's historical reenactor.
My uncle is probably going to Ukraine. He fought as a mercenary in another war in the early 90s, his unit commander from that time is already in Ukraine and members from his unit are on their way there as well. He has been buying kit, going on hikes, etc. He is in contact with various groups and he said that he can get me in if I want.
Hmmm.... Maybe. I don't really care about either side but it could be fun. There is something I am working on here at the moment though, if that goes where I want it too then I won't want to leave as I might get my own house.
Thanks for reading my blog.
You aren't cut out for this. You were just advertising troop movements on the internet.
It can be hard to tell what is even going on like always. The issue is that Liveua maps only seems to go on what the Ukrainians say and the Ukrainians say that a battle is happening in x location but then after that nobody says what the result is the next day, if the Russians took it eventually the map changes but there often isn't a notification for it so it's hard to tell what has actually been taken day to day.
Anyway, they are expanding their position around Popasna and it looks like they may cut of the Ukrainians in a few days or weeks. However, it looks like they may almost have fire control over the roads leading to the Ukrainian positions. It's 24km from one side of the neck to the other, so depending on where Russian artillery is located the roads going into the pocket could all be in range.
The imbalance in the news I also find annoying. Fuck twitter one liners which were written with the intention of influencing and not informing.
Don't want to sound as a smartass, but I told they're gonna take land in little patches and won't be any high scale encirclement.
They have firepower and tech superiority, but not enough manpower.
I heard that too, but I think that the two aren't mutually exclusive. They can encircle positions slowly and methodically like they seem to be doing now. Large scale withdrawals of Ukrainian forces form the pocket will be difficult and even if they did manage it with no casualties then the Russians still would have taken the pocket after they left.
Well that's it then, Azovstal fell. They are saying that 2439 surrendered in total including commanders and even the commander of the Avoz Regiment.
Russians were saying that 2500 were trapped from the beginning, so that seems to match, maybe it's even a bit more because we don't know how many have died in the siege. add that to the 1300 or so that were captured from the other steelworks and that is 3800 or so.
There was a Major in command of what was left of the 36th Marine brigade, plus the Azov commander and deputy commander. I don't hold much hope for the Azov lads, I think they are going to be tried and locked up for life at least if not killed(both sides seem to be doing this, trying soldiers before the war is even over. In both cases they are probably kangaroo courts). But I hope the Major gets treated well and they don't try to bring made up charges to him.
Only one way communication this time, only from the Russians. No Ukrainian comment, like few days back.
I assume this thing was already agreed on back then, because was Zelensky said about the ending the operation pretty much means that, ending the whole thing, not just allowing the wounded to leave.
In the first group those left, so they could get medical help asap.
How strong is the bridgehead over the Donets near Siversk, if present at all? The encirclement needs a northern prong.
I suspect Ukraine's leadership will allow Severodonetsk to be encircled just as Mariupol. It's easier for PR to handle than a retreat and buys time for a further buildup of forces elsewhere with the continuous stream of Western equipment.
> How strong is the bridgehead over the Donets near Siversk, if present at all?
It was reported they made a crossing nearby but it got far less attention than the one at Bilohorivka. My explanation: since the latter failed miserably, and Ukrainians made great footage of it, it was possible to use in the propaganda. Since the fate of the other pontoon and bridgehead wasn't reported (plus the liveuamap shows two pink areas there) I assume the events weren't favourable for Ukrainians, so they got hushed.
From this I can deduce there are forces over the river, plus, they are strong enough and well placed/entrenched enough that the Ukrainain army couldn't force them into the river just like that yet.
But is that group big enough to launch an attack?
> I suspect Ukraine's leadership will allow Severodonetsk to be encircled just as Mariupol.
The question is will they hold out as long as Mariupol? They'll know they are left there for the Russians and no help can be expected.
Also that funny Twitter policy.
This is about Ukrainian artillery this time. They communicate through an app they made and Starlink and keep their artillery pieces separate to avoid counter battery fire.
Breddy gud. Adapting with the tools westerners make for them available.
Were those Ukrainian losses 2014-17 in that table? Or generally? It wasn't clearly specified.
I wonder if this makes Musk a belligerent participant.
Nice map about units in the Sievierodonetsk salient.
Was also talk about the river crossing failure. It seems artillery did them.
If Russians could deal with the artillery that would be quite a blow.
Lotsa shelling today, even in the north. Did not make screenshot, otherwise nothing changed.
I wonder what are the targets of these attacks. Since the actual activity restricted to small portions of the front, the Ukrainians could redirect artillery pieces to the active areas, essentially endlessly, to replace what was lost there. But if Russians can destroy the various type of guns all over the place, then Ukros can get into trouble at one point (ofc Westerners prop them up with more so...)
It was Ukrainian losses from 2014 to 2017, if you are quick you can catch a glimpse of the title of the slide at one point, his slides are in English for some bizarre reason.
> Artillery - 2014-17 LI/LL Ukraine
> Analysis of combat damage for armored vehicles in the area of joint forces operation
I dunno what LI/LL means. But from the rest it isn't clear whose losses are those.
The Russians are still making minor gains around Popasna and in other areas. It seems Ukrainian counter attacks have stopped or at least they have not taken anything more. Southfront is saying that there might be a Canadian General that was among those captured in Azovstal.
> The Ottawa Citizen reported that Lieutenant General Trevor Cadier was supposed to take command of the Canadian Army last September, but that was canceled after a sex scandal erupted around him. A former female member of the army accused him of violence. At the same time, it became known that Cadier had left Canada despite the fact that the investigation was still ongoing.
> Trevor Cadier did appear on Ukrainian territory, which there is a lot of evidences of, and then suddenly disappeared from sight. He is not in Kiev and is not listed among the dead. As Ottawa Citizen concludes, the NATO general is currently in the catacombs of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol together with Nazis from Azov and several hundred foreign mercenaries.
It seems it was not in an official capacity.
South front is also saying there are two battalions of Polish troops moving from Kiev to support the AFU but I don't think I believe that or at least it certainly needs evidence.
Maybe those Poles are volunteers, and half of them might not be even Pole. Some international unit.
> The question is will they hold out as long as Mariupol? They'll know they are left there for the Russians and no help can be expected.
Ideological commitment will fuel a lot of resistance for some time.
Explain this Hungary...
With May 31 the state of emergency due to pandemic will expire. That gave special powers to the govt. Now they change/changed/wanted to change(? not sure which) the constitution so they can instate state of emergency in case of:
- humanitarian crisis
- neighbouring wars
So basically this whole thing is to keep the special powers they got used to during the covid pandemic.
I wonder if other countries will follow suit.
Finished an article. They did amended the constitution. So new government, new state of emergency.
Some interesting occurrences regarding Moral(on both sides).
A unit of reserves from the DPR have made a video complaining about how they are treated. They say that they were mainly students before the war, many are unfit for service and have health problems and as they are reserves they were only meant to be used to defend Donetsk, they fought in Mariupol and without time to reorganise and rest they were sent to Luhansk(which they say they should not be fighting in because they are not citizens of Luhansk).
Next we have three videos of Ukrainian forces. Two videos are from units of the 115th territorial brigade, so again they are reservists. The map site I posted before is nice but one issue it has is that the information is not that live, it updates every few days but also it has not seemed to have updated the Ukrainian unit locations for a long time. American intelligence spend a lot of effort tracking Russian troop movements of course but are not that worried about tracking the Ukrainians, so it's just based on an official source that does not seem to have been updated for a while(you can go to previous dates on that map and you will see that while the Russian units move around the Ukrainians don't move at all). Anyway, it seems that the Ukrainians have been sending units from quite far away to reinforce the Donbass, if you look at the map site it says the 115th is located west of Kiev, now they are in Sveirodonetsk.
They are complaining because they say they are poorly trained and equipped and have been sent there as cannon fodder.
The third video is from the 58th mechanised brigade, they are located west of Khakiv on the map, I don't know where they are now.
It makes sense for reserves and territorials to complain, they are basically civilians after all. Not so much the case with the 58th however.
Generous shelling today.
And check this: they apparently reached Bilohorovka, the village towards the north, where the river crossing was spoiled. This means they basically have a pocket with very little lifeline, probably none. Question how long they can hold out in there.
And instead of surrender they spend time to make these videos, trying to appeal to the higher-ups. They are committed.
If they'd surrender - and the article says the numbers in the thousands who face trial and sit in detention in their own homeland, so it would be a considerable number - the Russians could use them as propaganda tool (besides being POW or even facing charges in Russia), and I think the know this, and want to prevent even this.
I don't think it's that Bilohorivka, there is another Bilohorivka in the salient near Popasna. It must be confusing for the people that live in that area.
They have apparently taken Liman as well, but that has not been confirmed yet.
It seems they still care about their country and still want to fight for it but they just don't want to fight for it in those conditions.
> I don't think it's that Bilohorivka, there is another Bilohorivka
> fight for it in those conditions.
Since they know it wouldn't be a fight.
How much they have that. I heard there are other units similar to Azov, but besides them, they are just average Joes. Mikolas.
Okay, they think they fight for their country against foreign invasion, so they have more motivation than an average Russian soldier, but if there isn't someone to constantly motivate them, they'll see easier the inevitable by day.
Finally I remembered to check that "Swiss Policy Research" website, if they wrote anything about Ukraine. They had to I figured, and they did. Still don't know who they are but they summarize many views breddy gud. Three articles they have:
These are all written some time ago, this kinda-sorta blog isn't a news site, so no regular updates, but assessments of the situation.
Many related writings they have, and many links lead off-site to great varieties of sources, only a few looks shady (well the mainstream media in itself is shady...) but maybe because of my lack of knowledge/understanding of those sites.
Two more links I want to give. First, because NFKRZ also touched the first topic, ofc on his way more personal and way less professional level - but still giving an insight which SWPRS lacks -, the Russian propaganda:
The second is about the US imperialism, which makes me wanna read that Sylvan-Majeski book they cite (when I have the time I will):
My problem with their summary of the US foreign policy that it lacks the motivation behind. Or we can call it explanation of the historical background processes. The cause of the behaviour.
Just because an entity is an empire that doesn't itself the explanation for expansion, despite we can state that it is in the empire's nature to expand their borders and/or influence as much as possible. Ofc probably many root causes exist, some historical views will put more emphasis on one, some on others. For example we could say Rome waged continuous wars to fill up the slave workforce (I think it's classic Marxist explanation), so we could find an economical drive. I'm a big fan of personal motivation of the individuals and its impact on events (events doesn't happen just by themselves, but people have to make decisions which influences the direction and outcomes, there are circumstances that allow these decisions to happen/bear fruit), for example I could say Julius Caesar went to Gaul to chase his own vainglorious reasons (ok this is superficial evaluation of Caesar and his deeds, isn't really important I'm just trying to make a point).
So these guys list 10 "traditional" explanations and write some lines why they aren't true. Instead of these 10 they offer "Sylvan and Majeski"'s observations as explanation, which isn't an answer for the why, just presents how the US behaves. That pyramid structured flowchart just presents what they do when they evaluate a country's fate, but doesn't give the reason why is it happening. "Because it's an empire" isn't a reason. There are reasons why predators predate (and don't eat grass for example which isn't entirely true, some of them, like canines, do sometimes).
B E L A R U S
Even the threat of a Belarusian intervention could tie down considerable amount of troops.
If the Russians had a successful northern prong they could've been putting pressure on the northern road to Severodonetsk through Siversk now. It seems earlier on they lost a pontoon bridge near Serebrianka.
I bet he'll still try to play both sides at some point.
There are pictures of executed Ukrainians appearing online, they have been killed with there hands behind their backs. Southfront(so Russian media) is saying that the Ukrainians are executing deserters and people that are trying to surrender. It's possible, the Russians probably would not take photos of people they themselves had executed. I am still not ruling out the possibility that it was done by Russians though.
I'm not going to post the pictures, they are in this article. It also says that the LPR ambassador to Russia told the Russians that the LPR and DPR have 8000 Ukrainian POWs now. At first I was sceptical but they already have around 4000 from Mariupol alone, so it's not impossible(but could still be exaggerated).
Dogs can't eat grass, I think you mean fruit. Dogs are generalists but also interestingly enough, domestic dogs can digest more proteins than wolves can which would implied that over time they have adapted to eat a more varied diet due to living with humans. Cats are still obligate carnivores though(they eat grass but only to make themselves throw up), cats arguably are not even domesticated.
The problem is that they have a very small professional army, most of what they have are conscripts instead. So to be involved they would have to mobilise conscripts which I don't see them doing.
I don't see it tying down that much, the Ukrainians have a lot of Territorial defence units in the area and they themselves could probably handle that.
The Ukrainians have had some issues crossing rivers too. I think the issue is that in the era of drones and satellites it's very difficult to conceal a river crossing and the equipment needed for it and once spotted it's also much easier to destroy the bridge and the convoys trying to cross it with accurate artillery fires and guided missiles. So I think they might have to give up on the northern prong until the southern one can help cover a crossing and maybe not even then.
> Ukrainians are executing deserters and people that are trying to surrender.
There is a reason why deserters were executed during 100% of history. Because those who desert are doing it because they fear of dying. If they know they can get away with less then dying they will choose that.
So they have a choice:
- fight in battle and risk dying
- desert and live, even if they have to go prison
But with death as punishment for deserting the choice is this:
- fight in battle and risk dying
- desert and risk dying.
They will most likely pick the first one since if they don't die they can hope things return to normal, but if they choose deserting, they might have to hide and flee in their whole life (they might cannot leave the country).
> Dogs can't eat grass
They can. Many won't vomit it out, but pass it through their system. And it'll come out on the other end in same condition as entered, because they just can't digest it.
They also can't digest all types of fruits. For example they can plum (although it gives them/some/most of them diarrhea), can't apple (it comes out same as grass), and they shouldn't eat grapes because it contains something that poison them. They can digest various vegetable cooked, even nettle, not sure raw. But even wolves eat various vegetation in the wild.
Well Belarus is a small country. They only need to tie down as much as suit their weight.
> river crossing
This is an interesting problem. The evolution of warfare will come up with something. Or not, and rivers become unpassable obstructions, unless enemy recon and artillery is tied down or fed 100% false data somehow. Decentralized river crossings also comes to mind, divided into smallest units possible along a longer distance. However they could run out of places where rivers can be crossed, plus can't use the full weight of the unit after they crossed and lay divided along a river. Nah, this sucks.
So it seems Russians strengthened their position at Popasna, some movements from Izium.
The interesting here these Ukrainian advances. Perhaps I'm gonna sound cynical here, but since most of the updates on liveuamap comes from Ukrainian sources, they can decide what to share and how they share it to influence public opinion in their favour. So they share when Russians fail (or do something that can be shown as failure), but don't share when Ukrainians do something and fail. So I have to assume this battle is going in their favour and will yield results. It sounds like a mouthful too big, but can they push back the Russians over the Dniepr?
It is occurred to me that EU's fossil fuel problem could be solved with Libyan oil. It is close, just plug it into Italy, and it can flow.
However Libya is a bit busy now, most of the oil fields are cockblocked by LNA and the Russians. The latter cleverly expands her influence in the turmoil of the Sahel.
Here's an article from January:
But this guy has nice maps, from Petroleum Economist, the latest is from May 23, so quite fresh:
Look like the attack failed, they sometimes also do mention attacks but just say that it didn't fail it caused Russia casualties or something like that.
According to uawardata the Ukrainians have overwhelming forces in that area.
It could cause a new phase in that war, Russia is going to be spread pretty thin right now so it would be a good time to do something there(although the issue is that France actually backs the LNA as well). There is talk of a new Turkish push in Syria as well, to link up the two portions they have taken already. They have said as much themselves and there are convoys of Turkish equipment heading to Syria.
Libya is a giant clusterfuck that's for sure.
I was reading about where the EU's gonna buy her oil. Because no Russia, Norway can give just so much, no Libya (less and less export from there), Iran is embargoed, Venezuela is shut down, due to "go green and renewable" bs no investors for Middle Eastern oil extraction... it seems the US is stepping in, but prices rise higher and higher. Someone gonna make a bank.
It's really funny reading an article in Hungarian paper that how horrible this pesky Orbán don't want to sign oil embargo, and then reading all the crying about oil crisis in the next.
I'm taking a look at largest oil fields/reserves of the world, ofc Middle East is leading the list (Iraq, UAE, Saudi, Kuwait... ). Then comes Iran. After that I can't judge the order but the largest ones are China, Mexico, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, US and Russia. Further down the list comes countries like Brazil, Libya, Azerbaijan, Canada, Norway, various African countries (Ghana, Angola, Nigeria), and maybe even UK is on the list still.
Btw in 2019 on the Great Plains we also found a quite large field, which could essentially double our production. The "large" have to be but between apostrophes, since there is no way we could produce enough to set us on the path of self-sufficiency.
New sanctions was introduced by the EU:
- they block Sberbank from SWIFT
- ban three large Russian broadcast company
- sanction individuals responsible for war crimes
- oil embargo
I find it interesting that someone can be war criminal even before determined if any war crimes happened, and if those people are really responsible for war crimes. So essentially punishing before found guilty without any court judging them, or any court decided anything. But this is how it goes since this war crime/war criminal term was invented. Good excuse, sounds well for the populace.
Now oil embargo, because this will reach into the populace's pocket.
They cut 2/3's of all oil import immediately (arriving on tankers), and by the end of the year they'll go up to 90%. Orbán said this is good news for us, since we got exemption. But it doesn't really seem like that if they go to 90%. But maybe comparing our consumption, maybe that 10% is us (perhaps even less). What is known however that Germany and Poland gets most of the oil arriving via pipes, and they'll severe those ties by the end of the year, so that is surely adds towards the 90% goal.
Btw the Czechs and Northern Hungarians are gonna get fucked in this hard, Bulgaria (as noted earlier) also had reservations about the issue. There is an interesting line in the article below:
> The Czech Republic was granted an 18-month exception from a ban on the resale of oil products.
They sell Russian oil to other countries?
Russian gas is still a question, since it's just about oil. But not having oil will raise gas prices too.
Russian troops gained a foothold in Sievierodonetsk. Srs fighting are going on elsewhere too.
This one is curious:
> Ukraine has asked the US for multiple-launch rockets
> United States will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia,
> The US has provided thousands of portable Stinger anti-aircraft and Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukrainian forces as well as advanced drones and field artillery.
Well these can reach very well into Russia...
Much gains in the town.
However in the west it has a large factory yard. I'm not sure how this looks like, and if it could be use similarly as Azovstal.
Then comes the Donets river, the same Russians failed to cross downstream. Or rather they were denied by Ukro artillery as we saw.
And then another town Lisichansk (or how it is written).
Last bite of Lugansk oblast, but will be quite chewy.
Fuel crisis will come to Europe this year:
It's probably has nothing to do with the voluntary decision of the EU to embargo Russian oil ofc. Putin literally forced them to do. He stood over them in Brussels, a bunch of Chekists behind him with submachineguns, and beat them with kamcha until they bled and gave up resistance.
Srsly. Why not just declare war on Russia? I can read articles and tweets all day about how easy to beat Russia, how they fail at every corner, how few forces they have. So those countries who don't have nuclear weapons can declare war on Russia, The NATO don't have to lift a finger, article 5 can only be invoked if a NATO country gets attacked, not if a NATO country attacks. France do this all the time. Anyone, really, who wants to end this war quick should declare war and beat them. Germany, a country with population of 80 million, just can spare couple hundred thousand troops for the good cause.
They are saying the whole city has fallen now(I guess they mean excluding the industrial plant), It fell far faster than I thought it would but it might be that the Ukrainians had only left a small force there which makes sense as they did also blow the bridges so resupplying large forces would be hard.
Also, a Bushmaster was killed... Sad, they were not made for such a dangerous world.
I could only find this link on Youtube, well it has the footage at least.
> Sad, they were not made for such a dangerous world.
True. Their ultimate purpose is looking good in youtube videos.
ISW says the Russians are drawing on Belarusian equipment to replenish their losses, while Ukrainians are already retreating from Severodonetsk. They still regard the "Kherson counteroffensive" as important.
Looking at the map, the Lyman-Sloviansk road seems important. Apparently the Russians couldn't exploit their momentum to get a bridgehead.
Meanwhile, there's talk of a new Turkish operation in northern Syria. Certainly related with Erdogan's relations with NATO and Russia.
It's in ENGLISH now!!!
> Lyman-Sloviansk road seems important
Road and railroad yes.
Also they might wanna secure bridges over the Donets. Ukrainians are blowing them up.
> new Turkish operation in northern Syria
I think I saw that mentioned somewhere.
Maybe they realized we are watching them videos.
EU wanted to put patriarch Kirill onto the shitlist, but Orbán said we're gonna veto.
In another news, apparently Biden has no problems with sending MQ-1C drones that can be equipped with Hellfire rockets. Which in theory also can strike into Russia. Weird.
According to that Russians has no foothold over the Donets in the region of the pocket.
Too bad he doesn't say much about the attrition, its effect on the fight.
The breakthrough with the echelons at Popasna is a classic move. They started it on May 5th, over a month ago, for me it seems events are sped up last week.
Also adaptation. Russians tried the front on several places until one let them in.
> hold them at the Dnepr
That would be a failure. But how would the war end? If the Russians could take Lugansk and Donetsk, plus Zaporozhia oblast (let's say Ukrainians would let them take literally everything east from the Dnepr, liek Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov etc), they could sit on their laurels and consider it done. But they can't finish a war unilaterally, Ukraine also have to agree on it. But Ukraine stuffed by the west can continue at least with bombardment, and with small unit incursions, skirmishes.
Hmm he confirmed Ukrainian units breaking down morally.
And now I understand the MLR request towards USA.
All in all lots of topics and questions he addressed. Thanks Colonel Reisner.
> In another news, apparently Biden has no problems with sending MQ-1C drones that can be equipped with Hellfire rockets. Which in theory also can strike into Russia. Weird.
Why can't send liek a piece treaty or something?
> piece treaty
Russia has a foothold over the Dniper anyway, Ukraine has to deal with that if they truly want to form a line there. But then Russia could also just invade form Belorussia again.
He also said they have sent 7 Territorial brigades to the region. On one hand that's quite substantial and could hinder Russia but on the other hand it's likely they are one of the main sources of poor moral and certainly they will be in the future.
Yesterday this looked the same. Growing pressure?
Yes they sent territorial brigades as the reserve. Probably the first liners are wore down.
> they are one of the main sources of poor moral
Also remember vidrel? These guys and the other volunteers are fighting somewhere. Probably in those territorial brigades. Those were most likely "empty" units with skeleton crew and they got refilled with civvies.
There are foreigners in the Sveirodoestsk industrial area as well. It kind of does feel like they might be cannon fodder if they are being sent there. There are a few Australians in this video as well.
That's the thing with fighting against the Russians, it is easy to think you are on the right side of history. And poor blokes no matter what happens to them it'll just reinforce this belief in them.
No matter on what side you are on, if you fight you were either forced or played like fool.
What would happen if whole Ukraine was become part of Russia? Ethnically nothing. Russia is a multi-ethnic nation all kinds of folks living there. Just look at them pesky Chechens. Are they forcefully Russified? Ukrainians would do just fine. Now geopolitically it would be a different situation.
But let's see the EU. There many leading voices say countries should be abolished, only EU should exist. This is taking away sovereignty from the member states. Why this doesn't hurts them, just the loss of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Most of those faggots who sentimentally cry due to the patriotism of Ukrainians would flee this country when she would need them if attacked. Hypocrites.
Russia kinda ruined any good will they had with the invasion. It's pretty hard to convince people to like you when you loot their houses and kill their friends and neighbors? The few people I know from there are still pretty scared over everything.
> What would happen if whole Ukraine was become part of Russia?
Probably low wages. Mayb they don't want a repeat of the USSR days.
I'm not sure what I should be convinced of. I'm aware people are getting harmed, dying, lives getting ruined, homes destroyed. I also fear for Bernds there and I hope they'll be okay.
But all these are business as usual on our globe and in history. There is no nation or folk whom did not do really bad things against others and not suffered really bad things from others. And frankly some nations did really bad things to themselves (leik 30 years war) as well.
What we should really see that now in the West politicians who want to abolish nations and countries now stuffing Ukraine with money and weapons so it can fight for her soil and national sovereignty. That journalists whom are the voice of such people who would abolish nations and countries, now manipulate similarly thinking people to feel enthusiastic about Ukrainian sovereignty and the sanctity of Ukrainian national borders, to feel for their patriotism, and to support such measures against Russia, that harms even themselves. Meanwhile all this isn't done in the interest of the Ukrainian people, because they won't win this war ever. All the effort is done to prolong the war, or even make it a perpetual crisis. And this will harm Ukrainians more. And it is done to make certain people more rich and powerful (many companies earn big on the inflation, while it makes people poorer), and a certain government (USian) more influential.
> Probably low wages.
Ukraine has the lowest wages in Europe, not counting Moldova perhaps.
You follow NFKRZ. He points out that in Russia they have a disparity of wages of certain regions, cities. Most noticeably in Moscow people can get wages that compare to Western European ones, although it is sames with prices. People living in Russia has the chance to earn quite well.
In Ukraine people has no such chance. If they were in the EU, they could work in Paris or Berlin or Amsterdam, in 16 hours as dishwashers and earn a good wage. But they aren't in the EU. They just a corrupt shithole with oligarchs exploiting the bydlo. There are foreign workers in the EU tho. But it's different than being an EU citizen.
Busy front today. I guess Russians are pushing hard for results. Or maybe they find the resistance softer and want to exploit the chance.
A ground attack in the West north of Kherson was initiated as well by them.
LEOPARDS 2s ARE GOING NOW!!!
That could be potentially interesting but I'm afraid the public won't get much details about how they fare.
> Asspie missiles
> Spain will train the Ukraine soldiers to operate these tanks. The training will be conducted by Spanish soldiers deployed in Latvia,
So Ukrainian soldiers will travel abroad to get that training.
This is a curious situation. Let's assume training for other weapon systems are also conducted abroad, in EU countries. This is a rare opportunity for those soldiers who rather not want to participate in the war and plan to desert. I assume to prevent such things they:
1. send reliable troops;
2. EU countries give out deserters to Ukrainian authorities.
The latter means that they probably give out those who were deserted from the front, and were lucky enough to somehow reach neighbouring countries. Maybe they even go that far that send back men who weren't soldiers but in that age bracket that they can be called up for service.
> Most noticeably in Moscow people can get wages that compare to Western European ones, although it is sames with prices. People living in Russia has the chance to earn quite well.
> In Ukraine people has no such chance. If they were in the EU, they could work in Paris or Berlin or Amsterdam, in 16 hours as dishwashers and earn a good wage.
They have Kiev where wages also pretty high compared to other country. I guess difference in real income between average Kiev and Moscow dweller isn't that big if housing (rent) prices would be taken in account. It is hard to compare this because statistics is pretty flawed (there are still tremendous amount of unofficial wages in both countries), but I guess Kiev is something like Sankt-Peterburg or such.
Statistics about countryside is also hard to compare, but looks like Ukrainian one isn't much different than "rich" Russian regions like Krasnodar/Voronezh. At least it isn't overly depressive. As an anecdotal evidence, one neighbor of my relatives from southern Russia worked in Donetsk in 2010 and was very excited about city. He thought that it is much better than place where he lived. They even had water 24/7 compared to his home city.
> tanks that have been stored for a decade in a logistics base
Can they even move without months of repairs?
Oh we'll know about them. It's going to be like the Turks in Northern Syria all over again.
Well I didn't literally mean right now....
But yes that is an issue, they will have to be refurbished. But then it will take a while to train the crews to operate them anyway, so it may be that by the time they get trained on them they will be ready for combat.
Ohh... Well this doesn't look good.
> inb4 over 90% voted to join
A lot of heavy fighting has been going on in Severnodonetsk. The Russians took most of the city, then Ukraine announced a counter attack and some Ukrainians had even said that most of the city had been retaken, but this was proven to be false by the Ukrainians themselves(or at least a Ukrainian journalist). But regardless there has been heavy fighting in the area and we know that many foreign units have been sent there, I would assume that these foreigners would be treated like shock troops and sent to fight where the battle was the most important.
A reasonable assumption would have been that the Ukrainians would leave the city, the Brazilian said as much and even the military analyst from UAwardata did, this is from his report from the 27th of may.
> Ukrainian forces around Severnodonetsk are likely in the process of withdrawing to form a new line from Sivers'k to Bakhmut.
This does however not seem to be the case.
They seemed to let the Russians take the city initially and then they countered, I think politics are at play here. Militarily it's a bad situation and makes sense to withdraw and that's probably what the plan was until political interference, it reminds me of Hitler in WW2(or the Soviet Union in Kiev).
But to be fair to them, this is a different situation to Germany's. Germany was outnumbered, manpower was at it's limit and no help was going to come for Germany and the longer the war went on the worse it was going to get, this is not the case for Ukraine. It makes some sense to hold every inch of ground for as long as possible as Ukrainian losses can in theory be made up for by western nations and this buys time for more soldiers to be mobilised and trained. On top of that they have to make it look like they are fighting as hard as they can to reassure the west, the west won't back a retreating army.
We already had articles:
> will be Sieverodonetsk the next Azovstal?
and I assume western media also had similar because ours just copies them subserviently. So western audience is already getting prepared of hearing the latest heroics about the tenacity of surrounded Ukrainians. Maybe they get the heroics of surrounded foreigners, Anglos.
I think Zelensky's American advisors doesn't care about military situation, and what would be operationally sound. Strategically what they need is results for propaganda. To keep the support of the western populace, so they can keep policies on, keep the embargo and the rest, and whatever else is in the pipes already.
Meanwhile Austria starts a world war again.
So essentially nothing would change, except people would get their wage in rubles.
They could continue on with their life. Occasionally do some meaningless voting in elections (as they do now).
> So essentially nothing would change
> They could continue on with their life.
It is hard to predict how economic situation will be because big political changes always bring economic ones. Maybe nothing would change if everything happened magically in one minute in 2010, although even that scenario may lead to different outcomes depending on how governing elites will be shuffled.
But overall Ukrainian pre-war economics had positive tendencies in past. Financial situation of average commoner was on par with average Russian, but state had much less money. Russia has extreme incomes from resources export (oil, gas and raw materials) while Ukraine has only agricultural sector and some metallurgy.
That means that system may be more efficient for average citizen. I don't know what is main reason of this, maybe lack of state power that leads to less extortion of money by government and government-related entities. Maybe this is also a reason why they have no such big income disparity in regions like Moscow-vs-Russia.
But all this doesn't matter now anyway.
Sad, I had hoped this would not happen. Well maybe it still won't, they are not dead yet.
It's not really fair, they are doing exactly what everybody else is doing in this war, in fact there are people that are doing worse than they are. I don't think they should be treated like this just because they are foreign.
I wouldn't expect huge drop in living conditions. And not skyrocketing up either. Similarly how we joined the EU, there are changes but are we really "richer"? Well more people have cars and quite lot of families even two. Which means they can afford to get moar loans for sure.
Oh this EU stuff made me remember something. Wanted to rant about how Hungarian sweets brands, liek chocolate bars, favoured by many Hungarians, aren't in Hungarian ownership anymore, but not even produced in the country. Some produced in Ukraine... And now we have shortages. It's liek if Ukraine joined the EU, and people woke up one day, and their favourite buckwheat was bought by some German or Dutch multi and the production was outsourced to Russia.
Anyway back to the topic.
> That means that system may be more efficient for average citizen.
The income from the resources export didn't trickle down. While Cold War ended, Russia still has to maintain a global power, well at least as close to that from what's left.
From more money more can be stolen, but I dunno which country is more corrupt.
> But all this doesn't matter now anyway.
Yes, it's all hypothetical.
The big question is, what will be the result of them being executed? Will it be a deterrent and less foreigners will join? Will make the foreigners fight more fiercely and mercilessly knowing they'll get no mercy either? How can the propaganda of each side profit from it? Can Russia use their lives as bargaining chip somehow?
About the convicted foreign fighters.
> violating four articles of the DPR’s legal code, including attempting to “seize power” and “training in order to conduct terrorist activity”,
> The court identified each of the groups as “mercenaries” and said their actions had “led to [the] deaths and wounding of civilians” as well as the destruction of infrastructure in the DPR
> the three men had pleaded guilty to all of the charges
> are now set to face a firing squad
> Their lawyer said they will appeal the decision.
Now this one is more interesting:
> Pinner and Aslin’s relatives have argued both are long-serving members of the Ukrainian military and not mercenaries.
I guess they are there since 2015-16
What is the definition of mercenary anyway? Local soldiers serving with contract are essentially mercs too no? They are work as professional soldiers, they get money for their service.
> A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the United Kingdom’s government was “deeply concerned”
Oh god. Cannot they come up with something fresh? Or be honest about it: "we don't give a shit but we are obligated diplomatically to try some stuff" or "we don't give a shit and can't do shit about it, but consider us making sympathetic noises"
> Another British fighter captured by pro-Russian forces, Andrew Hill, is currently awaiting trial.
A Czech T-72 was captured in Ukraine. Interestingly everything seems to be in English.
It was refitted in Romanian by APOLO.
Opps, I meant it was refitted by a Bulgarian company called APOLO, not a Romanian one.
The Czechs attacked Ukraine? Nice.
>made in europe
It's like muh favoured Hungarian sweets all over again
To be fair this happens to westerners too like that Skandi fish salad made in Polan
French Caesars in action. It definitely acts not that fast as in promo videos.
Video is partially staged for journalists though, but shows some parts of controlling interface.
The crew would not be trained as well as a French crew.
Also, those kinds of systems rely on being integrated into wider networks to be used to their fullest, kind of like the M177 but to a greater degree. Because with a self propelled gun, the firing solution can be sent to you while you are moving to a predetermined point(to help with said calculations I would guess), then once you reach it you could set up, fire and then leave.
I mentioned before that the M177s in Ukraine lack the ability to do things like that as they had the component needed removed from them. I doubt they could do it with these either, it takes much more effort and training to set up of course as you are not just training a crew on a gun you are creating a network to guide it and training people to manage that as well.
Das fühl when turned up the volume so I can hear them talking a language I don't understand.
Poor Glib moar liek GLib amirite looks as he had some sleepless nights.
> It definitely acts not that fast as in promo videos.
They made it look like they are less competent so Russian command will underestimate them if they see this footage.
> The crew would not be trained as well as a French crew.
And for promo videos they give the best. Even Frenchies don't do as well as in promo material.
France 24 made a video about them as well.
Somehow I ended up on this page while just surfing the web:
> There are multiple reports of widespread military activity in Ukraine.
This Ukrainian bridgehead on Davydov Brod, near Kherson, looks relevant, though allegedly it was beaten back.
Meanwhile in Syria, both sides are already reinforcing the Tal Rifaat and Manbij fronts, where the Turkish-rebel offensive is expected. Iran opposes the Turksih operation:
Elsewhere, Israel bombed the airport in Damascus. An overlooked flashpoint has been Sinjar in Iraq, where the Yazidis are divided between the Kurdistan Regional Government-Turkey and Shi'a Iraqi-PKK-Iran camps. The Iraqi central government is logically in the latter camp, but made an offensive against PKK-aligned Yazidis last month under an agreement with Turkey to remove militias from the area. This is confusing, and if it continues to be an Iran-Turkey conflict, then the Iranian-aligned Iraqi central government would have to cease its attacks.
Ukros using electric dirtbikes. They lug around AT weapons.
Thats a one fat AT bastard.
> though allegedly it was beaten back.
One more thing we'll never be sure of.
In Syria and the neighbourhood not much changed.
97,000 Anti Tank systems have been sent to Ukraine. That's more Anti tank systems than there are tanks in the world.
A Ukrainian Advisor to Zelensky has said that the Ukrainians are losing 1000 men a day and that of that 200-500 are killed a day. This doesn't look good for them...
That Arakhamia bloke sounds arrogant.
> German government was still very reluctant to approve export licenses to arm Ukraine, perhaps due to "internal fear" of Russia.
They can even afford to mock and badmouth those who trying to help.
> Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit two million more
More greenhorns thrown into the grinder.
> Arakhamia and other members of the delegation noted that while Biden had signed a $40 billion package to aid Ukraine in May, it was only very gradually translating into actual weapons shipments.
I wish Westerners/USA had been this lazy with our billions of dollars and weapon shipments in 1956. But they only sent a bucket of rice.
Moved this thread here, to keep the stuff together.
I can understand where they are coming from with this kind of rhetoric. Western leaders were contacting the Ukrainians and promising them support, everybody in the west is talking about how important this is and how terrible Russia is and you have people like Biden saying that his goal is to defeat Russia. But what is the result of that?
That's just what has been said in public as well, who knows what promises were made in private and what the west was saying to Ukraine in the day leading up to the war.
Yes, they say they have been recruited into the army but I wonder what form that is in. Whether they are all training now, they are in units reading to fight but being kept back, they are actually on the fronts fighting or what. Well it would be a mixture of all three but the ratio would be what matters.
I think they are going to have a lot of trouble forming combat effective units, we know they lack equipment but I'm not sure they have the expertise and structure either. They aren't a conscript based army like Russia so they don't have formations staffed by officers already with some kind of cohesive structure but just waiting for conscripts to fill the ranks in the event of a war. They will be making these formations from scratch and they won't even have the officers and NCOs to do it I wouldn't say.
> I think they are going to have a lot of trouble forming combat effective units, we know they lack equipment but I'm not sure they have the expertise and structure either.
They won't form new units, or just a few. They'll fill the ranks of the existing ones. Probably give out lotsa promotions the to vets, and surround them with the fresh troops.
Loyalists and the SDF are preparing to fight the next Turkish offensive in Syria together:
> The operations room includes the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG); a battalion affiliated with the Iran-backed Fatemiyoun; a battalion affiliated with the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah movement; Iranian-backed groups from the towns of Nubl and al-Zahraa; formations of the Syrian regime forces from the towns of Abna al-Sahel, Hayyan, Haraytan, Anadan and Masakan; and the Baath Brigades.
> The operations room also includes two Russian officers, three officers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, three Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leaders and two leaders from the regime forces.
> In this context, a high-ranking military source from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “Iran is the one who formed the operations room by pressuring the regime and Russia and also through the Iranian leaders in the PKK’s Afrin Liberation Forces, which are present in northeastern Syria. Iran is thus seeking to protect the Shiite-majority cities of Nubl and al-Zahraa located near the lines of contact with the areas controlled by the Turkish-backed opposition, which will be at risk if the latter takes control of new areas following the Turkish operation.”
It'll be fought at the far west of SDF-controlled territory, far from American bases. It seems the two camps might as well be allies in the area.
They didn't have existing formations of a million men before the war, they can't use that million to simply replace losses.
Many of them might be kept back for manpower to do that but they will need to create new units as well.
Most of that million are drafted on paper. They don't even have the capacity to train that much or place them anywhere. They have a bunch of existing brigades maybe they can spread 100K man among those in regular intervals depending. Meanwhile the new recruits can be actually trained, because that not just a weak or two. And they can train them for the various new weapon systems they get from the west.
> Loyalists and the SDF are preparing to fight the next Turkish offensive in Syria together
That will be a hoot.
Is Iran gaining influence on the expense of Russia (since she's busy elsewhere)?
Gas shortage is expected in Europe. The amount of gas coming through North Stream 1 is declining. Russians say some malfunction in some hardware. Anyway Germany enacted new law maximizing the temperature providers have to provide to clients. And they try to keep gas levels up in storage. So they have to replace gas burnt with something. Guess what. They replace it with coal.
Russian army spokesman said they struck a gathering of over 50 officers (among them several generals) and killed 'em all. They were from units placed in the Mikolaev - Zaporyozha front.
Australia is donating 14 M113s now. That's unfortunate, we are in the process of replacing them with another vehicle in the regular army but as the reserves don't have anything like that at all they should be going to them. In fact half of our regular army is still motorised so even they could make use of them.
Just plaster a map here. Busy shelling all along the front.
Couple of stuff in the north the same artillery activity.
The commander of the logistics of the Command of the Ground Forces, Vladimir Karpenko, said this in an interview.
> I won’t talk about anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons yet. I’m talking only about heavy weapons. Today we have about 30-40%, and sometimes up to 50% of equipment losses as a result of active battles. Thus, we have lost about 50% lost about 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery systems
Interesting. I had a look at what else the website had to say and apparently we don't need to worry about equipment losses because the war is going to be over in a few weeks and the Russians are going to run home. Aleksey Arestovich, the adviser to the head of the presidential office had this to say.
> Well, a little more, some more deadlines. You can say – 2-3 weeks, in fact – no, there will be more, maybe a month and a half. But they will stop. And then there will be a feeling (for the occupiers), very important from an ideological point of view, and from the point of view of victory in the mental space – the meaninglessness of what is happening
I highly doubt Russians would leave just like that. They could just stay where they are and continue to bombard Ukrainian positions.
Will they have an ideological rupture? It's not liek they are ideologically motivated now. Troops losing morale could be a problem, but without suffering huge losses (doesn't seem they are doing large scale frontal attacks), they could fart around, doing half-assed shellings till the end of times.
Australia also has to re-open a coal mine to cover the gas shortage. The mine is situated next to Graz, and was closed in 2020 due to environmental concerns.
The news was broke on national telly by Leonora Gewessler, an environmental activist, Die Grünen party politician who serves now as the Minister of Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology.
The cope is that now they lowered Russian gas dependency to 70%.
Last week, I saw it in the news, Hungarian, and on Al Jazeera that the EU took some steps to accept Ukraine among her members. They drafted a list of requirements, about democratic expectations, and anti-corruption demands. Some laws sure will be enacted by the Rada (the parliament of Ukraine). Most of the stuff is symbolic I think, they'll let Ukraine in on the first possible occasion. This week the EU is going to hold a conference to discuss the question, Orbán told we are enthusiastic about accepting Ukraine among the member states. If this is our standpoint all the other PM's and Presidents will support the idea 1488%. Anyway they're gonna give candidate status for now. And later...
What I think we are witnessing is an event which will be remembered and taught to students as the partition of Ukraine. After Russia gets what she gets, the rest will be annexed by the EU. This event could very well mean the end of Ukraine, since the EU will try to move for the dissolution of the member states, and create a federal government over them, creating a super-state. Regions will become more important as local level of government, instead of previous countries, and some/many regions will reach beyond previous borders (I bet some gerrymandering will be had).
You just can't trust greens.
Situation on June 1st and 22nd.
Ukro-level shameless PR optics. Such is the degree of control and dominance of media gifted by their western patrons
But more interesting than the ukrainian stupidity/shamelessness is Germany going along with it (Barbarossa) by delivering those weapons on cue. USA's narrative-control leash on Germany must've slacked as some interests override others.
> about democratic expectations, and anti-corruption demands
Just a day before it was confirmed by a "constitutional court" in Lvov the outlawing and confiscation of assets of the 2nd most popular political party in the Ukraine in the 2019 presidential elections (and the most popular in eastern regions). This was on top of other 8 opposition parties banned previously. Von der Bitch just a few hours ago: "Our opinion acknowledges the immense progress that democracy has achieved since the Maidan protests [fucking lol] of 2014". Such a tiresome charade.
> they'll let Ukraine in on the first possible occasion
Would mean more massive diversions of money from the top EU budget contributors
Also, while I suppose Russia would rather have EU pay for Ukr infrastructure restoration, on security grounds they should oppose this. I said this months ago when Russia was saying that EU for ukraine was dandy. EU is almost acting as an extension of NATO now and moving more in that direction, and even in the best-case scenario (for us) that EU become liberated from the Yank Yoke it will probably then develop into some kind of military bloc, and on current trends it will be opposed to Russia no less than USA is. In fact maybe some russian reads end/kc/ because some time later I read that some rus official said that they were now withdrawing their "blessing" of Ukr accession.
In any case, I'm fairly certain that this visit of Macron, Draghi, and the "sad sauerkraut" (as the Ukrainian ambassador called him) to Kiev and the subsequent statements in support of candidate status, and the actual candidate status too, if it materialises, are just intended to prop up the Clown of Kiev, his political party, and his administration, so that the govt. can hold on as long as possible, extracting as much cost as possible from the rus before the end. It is purely self-interested, to draw the war out by gifting the clown the necessary political capital to offset bad news that may come from the frontlines.
> the EU will try to move for the dissolution of the member states, and create a federal government over them, creating a super-state...
I agree. I said similarly before. But I see this occurring in a much longer time frame than a potential partition of Ukr with involvement of EU states (Poland mainly, perhaps Hungary, perhaps Romania [btw, Moldavia's govt submitted an amendment to halve the number of signature required for a referendum on unification with Romania; such a thing may have serious implication for Transnistria and other pro-Rus regions of Moldavia])
I think they should let them into the EU, just look at the problems they are already having with Poland and Hungary. This would be hilarious.
It could very well be that the promises on behalf of the EU just a way to build national confidence in Zelensky to make Ukrainians hold out longer.
But if Western Euro multis can own a bit more lands, farms, factories, and workers without restrictive borders and regulations that come with that. Besides maybe they can muscle out some local oligarchs this way and take over their shit.
And then it could mean to extend USian control to the Russian border without making Ukraine a NATO member.
> EU is almost acting as an extension of NATO now
EU members are US client states, therefor EU is a US client state.
> Yank Yoke
This is a very accurate description, and nice wordplay on the Mongol Yoke.
EU does what the US wills. The EU won't be an independent country (when she turns into a country) because the foreign policy is subordinated to NATO and US will.
Now this is curious. What would happen if they abolished member states in the EU? Many are in NATO, but some isn't. Will EU join and make the now nonexistent nonmembers members?
Some dudes on the local imageboard are claiming that Kaliningrad and Lithuania are taking relevance into the current conflict, how true is this?
Kaliningrad is Russia, so has to do something with the conflict.
But in respect with Lithuania. She started to enforce the EU decisions to sanction Russia, so stopped most of the transit towards Kaliningrad. This is kinda uncomfortable, because Russian airplanes are banned from EU airspace, so they can't just fly over that easy. Plus they can't transport a bunch of products to Kaliningrad, from alcohol to oil.
As a counter step Moscow said she will flip the electric switch off and detach Lithuania from the regional electric lines. I dunno how this works.
Now the media magnifies the problem with talking about the possibility that Russia will close the Suwalki Corridor, which is basically the border region of Poland and Lithuania, between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
This is a long standing strategic problem all the militaries are calculating with since the SU fell apart, and Lithuania regained her sovereignty, and Russia lost direct land connection to Kaliningrad.
Now the tension allows the media to wail and generate fear and they do because it is good for business, and people with heightened emotions are easier to control.
I don't think occupying the Corridor is a real possibility, because:
1. Russia already has enough on her plate
2. It is an open conflict with NATO.
Yesterday Russia made some advances around the pocket that was forming in Zolote which I had heard contained around 2000 Ukrainian soldiers.
It looks like the Ukrainians have now withdrawn from the pocket to avoid being encircled. That's actually reasonable and I am surprised, this doesn't seem to be their normal strategy.
Russia has apparently captured two Caeser howitzers.
A French politician/journalist said on Twitter that they had been captured and were being sent to Uralvagonzavod to be inspected and reverse engineered. Then Uralvagonzavod replied, apparently they thanked France and Macron and said they would be useful(I don't speak Russian).
No pictures have been provided however.
And apparently they are pulling back from Sveirodontsk now as well.
Anyway, here a a piece from the Royal United Service Institute.
It's about the industrial nature of the war, they also estimate that Russia fires 6240 rounds of cannon artillery per day. Which is quite a lot less than what I have been hearing from the Ukrainian side. I think they said that they were firing 5000 rounds a day and that Russia was firing 30,000 or 60,000 a day or something like that.
Candidate status was granted not only to Kiev but to Chisinau as well (who promptly declared it was ready to join in economic war against the russia). Brussels dedicated even emptier words to Tbilisi too. To celebrate, ukr ministry of justice announced that it's evaluating the outlawing of 7 more political parties. In acknowledgment of another "immense progress" in Ukr democracy, EU announced it's allocating another ~$9B in credit ("financial aid") for the kiev govt.
> I see this occurring in a much longer time frame
On the other hand, a few days ago Sad Liverwurst (correction, my bad) was saying that there should be "reforms" in EU before new members are admitted. He was explicitly referring to the elimination of unanimity requirement for high-level decisions, thus getting rid of the "veto power" often exercised by the Visegrad four. Now, couple this to the pressure from Brussels & Berlin to ensure the "primacy of EU law" over national courts, as we saw applied against Poland last year, and we already could see a key degradation of member-state sovereignty... So perhaps it won't be so long-term after all.
> But if Western Euro multis can own a bit more lands, farms, factories, and workers without restrictive borders and regulations that come with that. Besides maybe they can muscle out some local oligarchs this way and take over their shit.
I see your point. Yes, capital would surely push for more cheap-labour immigrants, privatisation of whatever public industries or services remain in the Ukraine, and the foreign investment and development projects that would surely be created for a potential new member (as was done with other EE states), this coupled with "corruption proves" to clear ground may open clear opportunities for companies to take over existing assets or resources. In fact, Sad Liverwurst also said something about supporting a "Marshall plan" for the Ukraine.
> The EU won't be an independent country (when she turns into a country) because the foreign policy is subordinated to NATO and US will.
There is a potential silver lining to be found: US had been demanding hikes for Nato military budget for years and finally got it now. Most significantly from germany which has allocated ~$100B (this alone is significantly more than russia spends) and vowed to create the strongest european army, but also france and poland. Now, all this is supposed to be subject to the "nato integrated command", i.e. mostly USMIL, but, while a country that doesn't rely on itself for defense is not fully sovereign, a country that funds its own military is most of the way to full sovereignty. So it is possible we might see in the future europe being increasingly able to meaningfully push against decisions made across the atlantic, since the counterweight of military reliance-cross-imposition would become progressively weaker.
Similar developments may take place elsewhere too: There has been repeated talk of japan amending its pacifist constitution to allow development of more serious attack capabilities (which the usa might allow, as long as they are directed against china; yes, washington wrote tokyo's constitution and gets to decides if they can change it) or, if not that, at least significantly increasing its military budget.
On the other hand, it is only a potentiality. We have also seen very official buffoons (mainly from US and UK [plus the Baltosluts who just ape whatever comes from those two places]) talking about "partnerships" and "global missions" that effectively amount to expanding nato into east-asia (e.g. worst korea, japan) or the pacific (maybe singapore?). Will NATO be changed to GAETO? Also, through the Auukus, Australia has already committed itself to serve as spring-board for US's military jumps into the Asia-Pacific region. So, another possibility is that these developments, which basically amount to military build-ups in Europe and perhaps in east-Asia/Pacific, are instead heading towards a WW3-type conflict some years down the road: pushing russia and china together was (probably) an undesired outcome that they nonetheless greatly helped to bring about, through sheer power of witlessness and ideological zealotry, and which now looks a pretty solid trend. So perhaps TPTB have accepted that as a fait accompli and instead of changing course decided to prepare to take them on in the not-too-distant future. The proclamations by the british army staff chief are quite explicit in that regard.
It's not just "uncomfortable" (Btw, the "uncomfortability" comes from the fact that this is a partial/selective blockade, and a full blockade is a cle