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Статья The Economist
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2024/03/19/after-100-brutal-days-javier-milei-has-markets-believing
After 100 brutal days, Javier Milei has markets believing
Argentines have not given up on him either
We are genuinely very satisfied,” declared President Javier Milei of Argentina on local radio, after inflation in February fell by more than expected, to 13%. That, however, is the monthly figure. Over the past year it has amounted to 276%—the highest in the world. Inflation of just 8% annually has rattled politics in richer countries. That Mr Milei had cause to celebrate 13% monthly inflation shows the scale of the economic mess he inherited, and how much he has left to do to fix it.
Mr Milei, an irascible outsider and a self-described “anarcho-capitalist”, campaigned while brandishing a chainsaw and promising to slash spending. On December 10th he took over a bloated state running vast budget deficits financed by printing money. Inflation was rampant, the peso’s value in the drain. The government owed $263bn to foreign creditors, including $43bn to the IMF, but had no dollars at all. Like many Argentine governments, the previous one spent far beyond its means trying to buy popularity, while inventing increasingly absurd temporary macroeconomic fixes (such as heavy price controls) to keep the economy wobbling along.
Mr Milei is trying to steer the country down a dangerously narrow path, discarding those dodgy fixes as he goes. His basic political problem is that stridently attacking the establishment and regular politicians, a group he calls “the caste”, is crucial to his popularity. However, he needs some support from it to enact deep reform, as its members dominate Congress. But if he makes too many deals, he risks losing his outsider status and thus some popular backing—his only solid political asset.
After 100 days he can boast of real economic successes. His popularity is holding up, even though he lacks support in Congress. If he can keep the public onside until midterm elections late next year, he could bolster his influence and thereby his ability to remake the economy. But Argentines are already suffering deeply. They could abandon him long before then. That would be a blow to radical reformers worldwide.
Start with his economic successes. To show there will be no more money-printing, Mr Milei is obsessed with achieving a budget surplus, meaning the government taxes more than it spends. He says he will achieve a surplus (before interest payments) this year of 2% of GDP, a huge change from a 3% deficit last year. In both January and February the government achieved monthly surpluses, the first in over a decade. It did so partly by using Mr Milei’s chainsaw, chopping down energy and transport subsidies, transfers to the provinces and capital expenditure. It also relied on another tool: la licuadora, the blender. Raising spending by less than inflation is a reduction in real terms, known in Argentina as licuación. Spending on contributory pensions, the single biggest budget item, fell by almost 40% in real terms compared with the first two months of last year.