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You don't decide who wins beforehand. What happens happens and it might be you winning and it might not be. If riders keep attacking UAE eventually one might get away. If you don't do this you have a 0% chance of winning. If you do this you have a small chance of winning which is better than nothing.

Personally I really liked the way Carapaz raced in the Giro. He knew that he had to risk dropping from 2nd to 3rd if he wanted a chance at getting 1st. He could have helped Del Toro catch Yates to protect his 2nd place but that meant giving up his chances of winning. The majority of riders would rather fight for secondary placements because it's safer than going for the win (see G2 syndrome in every race ever).