Albert L.... pdf
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Tooze seems to think the Soviet Union became dependent on Lend Lease but not immediately, mostly after 1943. Maybe without it they're still near historical strength in 1942 but can't recover from the negative effects of their hypermobilization and their war economy suffers from 1943 onwards.
This book lists the total tonnage (in long tons) by period as:
> June 22, 1941–Sept. 30, 1941: 166,200
> Oct. 1, 1941–June 30, 1942: 1,420,255
> July 1, 1942–June 30, 1943: 3,054,259
> July 1, 1943–June 30, 1944: 5,747,722
> July 1, 1944–May 12, 1945: 5,532,780
> May 13, 1945–September 2, 1945: 1,541,699
The peak of Lend-Lease was late in the war. If the lesser quantities shipped in the early war proved to be decisive at least in 1942 (they probably weren't in Operation Typhoon and the winter counteroffensive) then the significance of Russian development diminishes and the Eastern campaign is also part of the main theme of the book, which is American development and Germany's reaction to it.