Actions
(92.05 KB, 1280x720)
>>/34841/ > joint patrolling in a corridor along the M4... Unless the Syrian army moves in this won't go anywhere, with jihadists still in the area it'll be impossible in practice to open the highway for civilian traffic. The previous Sochi demilitarization stipulated that it would be open and nothing of the sort happened. > But what's gonna happen with the rest of Idlib area? Frontlines freeze where they are. Turkey's whole intervention was about getting loyalists to retreat back to Sochi lines and now Erdogan admits defeat in this goal. > Nice rubber agreement. Al-Qaeda types mix in the civilian crowd. One side can always claim "those were terrorists", the other can reply with "those were civilians". Last agreement also included Turkey dissolving HTS, instead at this point they gave vehicles and bombing support. So it's meaningless. > They are basically solidifying a divided Syria with hostile forces leading each. They are guaranteeing that a new conflict can be ignited any time. Also what Astana and Sochi did, and in both cases fighting broke out again in a matter of months. This is also the case now. Assad has no long-term intention to maintain the truce and the rebels keep provoking, a quick breakdown is inevitable. A potential flashpoint is Afes, from where the rebels can shell the M5 and try to close it. So not only Erdogan had to accept all of Assad's gains, but all he got back with is some breathing room, a few moments of respite. He can't move things in the direction he wants so he just stalls and delays. What is his long-term plan? Just preserving the status quo, maintaining Idlib as it is, an Afghanistan with tens of thousands of heavily armed jihadists roaming around. He fears the alternative -letting it be restored to the Syrian government- means he'll get more refugees and lose prestige and a bargaining chip, so he's willing to accept this. It's also what Western hawks want. Yet it's a foolish strategy. Rebel Idlib is a perpetual hotbed of instability and a potential terror threat. Sure, at the moment it can be argued that it distracts Sunni fundamentalists by channeling their enthusiasm, but those people are unpredictable. Who knows if Syrian jihadists won't launch terrorist attacks on Turkey itself in the future? And letting them hold that land is a point of prestige for fundamentalists across the world as well as a breeding ground for locals potentially joining the cause of jihad. Syria's armed opposition is a spent force, a dead end, it cannot effect any change, all Erdogan can try to do is extend its lifespan.