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> He fears the alternative -letting it be restored to the Syrian government- means he'll get more refugees
How? If Assad wins, the refugees no longer have an excuse to stay in Turkey. They can all be thrown out into Syria within weeks to Assad's mercy. Sure, you might argue that it is not humane and that they will suffer under Assad but at this point, I'm pretty sure that the Turks don't give a shit, they want all the Syrians and other migrants gone. Remove the immigrants, reinforce the border and watch Assad like a hawk. If the PKK starts initiating assaults again with Assad's help, run a massive propaganda campaign against him, get NATO onboard and rape his ass with a full-on offensive. Russia won't dare do shit with the NATO forces ravaging the area except stand and watch helplessly as their hard-earned investments go down the toilet. Withdrawing from Syria is basically the only smart option left now.