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It's hard to guess. An impeachment is by design difficult to pull off, and even the opposition may not bother to set one in motion if the crisis doesn't cross a certain threshold. Mourão won't organize Bolsonaro's fall himself, that would fall to Maia. For Maia unseating both Bolsonaro and Mourão to get himself the throne is harder than unseating Bolsonaro alone and getting concessions from Mourão. Bolsonaro is buying support in the center. But if it comes down to parliamentary negotiation ability Maia wins.