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> Are they confident enough that they can win an election right now?
No.
> Til 2022 much can change, they could be a better position than now.
Maybe but it is unlikely and Erdo has already smashed the panicked button.
> but are they sure an at least 50% + 1 seat
Not seat but popular vote. Unless you take %50+1 of the votes say bye bye to your presidental throne, ahem I mean seat.
> I assume as head of state, Erdogan can call for a new election anytime he wants it.
Yes he can but parliment can also do that with %60 majority. But the parliment thing seems impossible.