>>/46620/
> creating economic problems due to the risk and uncertainty, strangling western investment and thus influence
This still can happen, maybe a bit differently. I wonder how the sanctions will bite back. Especially the halting of Nord Stream 2 by Germany. Will German babushkas huddling next to their improvised candle-pot stoves?
> war with a closely-related neighbor clearly looked to me beneficial only to the us/nato/west. So russia embarking on that project looks to me like playing into the hand of the "western partners"
Maybe Russian leadership thinks that Ukraine has more potential if put into use by Russian interests, and not just hovers in a limbo of "almost NATO, almost EU, but never be a member" state. Especially from the Russian point of view.
Maybe it serves many goals. Liek covid histeria can end with a bang now. Maybe the BLM riots in 2020 served similar purpose, but failed. I dunno.
> any invasion war would be similar to a US-like operation where they only move in when they are fairly convinced that all serious defenses have been taken out by air superiority.
Probably there is a large difference between attacking durkas (even Iraq) and a more similar country. My problem is this thing doesn't look like if all these forces are participating: >>/46608/ or maybe they are but actual losses seem quite low, just over hundred or so. If news can be trusted.
> the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition.
Defense in depth. They can afford to give up some land. On the border there are no places that can be fortified well, so they need to rely on fortifications after fortifications.