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China and Russia's domestic insanity - 4th letter from the FSB analyst
My translation of the 4th letter in the series from an active FSB analyst to Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 9th. As consequential as the 1st translated letter. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The text is over 1200 words.
Vladimir, good afternoon!
This is probably the first time that I’ve been able to write to you in the daytime during a weekday – everything is upside down now.
Under different circumstance, this information would look like utter nonsense, but right now, I am afraid, this won’t be the end of it.
First, we (FSB) are seriously evaluating a version that the current events of war with Ukraine is a war between the US and China, in which the Americans simply set us up and are using us. Now I’ll try to explain succinctly & clearly.
(This is the new ‘nonsensical’ working theory that the FSB analysts are being tasked to work on)
A global clash between the USA and China was unavoidable. After the war started in Ukraine [at least here in this correspondence I don’t have to use the term “operation”] the cost of resources has risen globally, especially energy. The main casualty of these events is China and our side (Russia) provided China certain guarantees, which I can personally confirm – that everything will end quickly (invasion of Ukraine). Which is why China has been tolerating the situation. But this was before.
The American situation is such that owners of the industry and oil drilling are in essence the same corporations, and that helps with the internal balance: They make money on drilling when oil is expensive, and when it’s cheap – from industrial development. This is a bit blunt, but it provides the necessary insight into their approach.
And shales (oil fracking), unlike the classic method (of oil extraction), is easy to stop and start.
Now the US will make an agreement with Venezuela and Iran. They can buy out Venezuelan light crude with a crazy discount. And the opening of the Iranian oil (market) will obviously be perceived with hostility by Saudi Arabia and UEA. The Yemeni conflict is also relevant here, and a row of other factors which I will ignore for the sake of simplicity. But it all leads to the fact that the US had already made preparations for these negotiations in advance.
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To read full text use the link, I get text too long error.
http://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/china-and-russias-domestic-insanity-4th.html