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By the elections in June the TISZA Párt become the second largest party, with about 30%. Picrels are the freshest data. Pic #1 made by a company close to the govt/Fidesz. It shows the EP election results in the first column at each party, and the current polling in the second. - Fidesz is as popular as four months ago - Tisza Párt's popularity has grown - remember this is a semi-conservative, pander to everyone, get the opposition together party Between the two there's 10% difference. - DK-MSZP-P is the remnants of the socialist party just above the 5% eligibility line (for parliamentary seats) - Mi Hazánk, right radical party, separated from the Jobbik, from those who did not want to team up with the left-liberal opposition, again right at the threshold - Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (KKP) - the joke party, under the treshold, perhaps they could get in perhaps not. - Momentum - liberals, down the drain - the rest down the drain. According to them strictly taken those numbers 4 parties could get into the parliament. Pic #2 From a pollster close to oppostion. They also show the preference in two columns (rows actually), but the light blue is the whole population (all voters), the dark shows the sure voters. - Fidesz - 28% all voters, 39% sure voters - Tisza - 26% all, 37% sure Very small difference. They measure the governing party lower and the main opposition higher. - DK - 5% all, 7% sure - Mi Hazánk - 5% all, 7% sure - KKP - 3% all, 4% sure - the rest doesn't worth to mention. Note: 28% of all voters seems to have no preference, well they "don't know" or "refused to answer" at least. From both groups they could go for certain parties. So basically they measure the smaller parties similarly, but there are less numbers to be distributed anyway. Here the smaller opposition parties get buffed a bit. Our electoral system favors the winner, they take all (well most) seats, inflating their representation in the parliament. So probably it doesn't matter if the Tisza and DK could form coalition.