I'm hearing from analysts that Russia loses Mali for Wagner leaves it and that Russia overextends and can't held all those lemons. But even mainstream Western media says they just replaced by the so called "Africa Corps" of the Russians.
Fresh news from 3 days ago.
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20250608-wagner-group-leaves-mali-replaced-by-moscow-backed-africa-corps-russia
> A Telegram account affiliated with Wagner said: "Mission accomplished. PMC Wagner is going home." 
> Mali [...] broke off ties with former colonial power France and pivoted towards Russia for political and military support.
> "The Kremlin remains in control;" the same diplomatic source added. 
> Most of the Wagner personnel in Mali, who are originally from Russia, will be reintegrated into Africa Corps
So they don't even leave just switch names.