thumbnail of OSI-Iran-nuke-maybe.png
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Applying the stuff from the politics thread I'm gonna try to speculate what can we expect from the US to do in the Israel-Iran conflict. What policy tools the use has?
Could treat it as hostile intervention:
1. coup d'état
2. punctuated military operations (raids by exile proxy forces)
3. aid to internal armed opposition forces (local guerillas)
4. large-scale combat
5. sustained and asymmetrical attacks (bombing campaign)
6. combat operations alongside local insurgent forces
7. invasion
As for large-scale combat and invasion, they could do it from Iraq and Pakistan with some landing operations from the seas, but that'd need concentrating forces in these places, and surely we'd get soem news about these. There are no internal or exile groups that could be used/supported.
This leaves strategic bombing. Politicians give the armed forces a target list which they'll go over with bombers, rockets and drones, and they'll try to level everything. Outcome is questionable. It did not work with North Vietnam, and achievement of Kosovo's not really independence had several factors and can't really measure the impact of the bombing.
Shouldn't forget that the first three tools are covert and the rest overt. The US acts covertly when they want plausible deniability for the enemy has international recognition. The IAEA report and the Israeli claims about the nukes can give the US enough legitimacy to act overtly. Especially since this picrel - if it is how that twitter account says, that was a mistake by Iran. Huge mistake.
I wonder if we could consider Israel a proxy force, since their men are within Iran, executing various operations, drone strikes and whatnot, expanding the number of potential policy tools.