Why could Tisza win? And why they could this big?
I did not expected this result, I literally told everyone the Fidesz will win.
The Tisza is a catch-all party that collected the voters of the leftlib after all their parties imploded - and those conservatives who got enough of the Fidesz. But not just the voters, but all the backers of the leftlib parties stood behind it too, those who push the money, their media, their experts. I thought people still so indignant about the leftliberals that they don't want to see them back. I think I miscalculated how they managed to hide in plain sight.
Everyone knows here that the Fidesz became this oligarch embezzling mafia, corrupt and fat, like its leader. But in previous elections the choice was them or those other corrupt, lazy, and talentless hack socialists and liberals. But by today all the old faces and names disappeared. Now it was the choice between the corrupt Fidesz and what the majority percieved as a breath of fresh air.
I do not believe that the campaign program of the Tisza mattered much. Basically they promised that they do better what the Fidesz was doing already, and they will do some more things that the Fidesz is not doing, and that they'll maintain good relations with EU and NATO unlike the Fidesz. So basically they had a populist program that promised everyone everything.
The high turnout was another component. The Fidesz got lotsa votes, but the Tisza got even more. Those who were mobilized all went to remove them.
"Electoral fatigue" perhaps is the keyword, I listened the latest podcast Michael Rossi participated in and this was the term he used. Basically people wanted a different populist from the populists they were tired of.

About the large number of votes that normally could have guaranteed a slim victory.
Despite the country seems to go nowhere, stagnating, many live quite all right and they are fine in this lukewarm puddle we soak our arses in surprisingly I know quite a few people who live comfortably and supported the Tisza, and there are quite a few people whose livelihood literally depends on the Fidesz being in power. And many got scared by the constant fearmongering the Fidesz produced since the start of 2024.
So it's not like the Fidesz is imploding like the old opposition, they are fine at the moment.