Fed Intervention Signals  

Emergency FOMC Meetings: Watch for unscheduled meetings—rare unless crisis is severe.  
• Example: March 2020 emergency rate cuts + QE.  
New Liquidity Facilities: Look for repo/Treasury backstops.  
• Key Phrase: “Full range of tools to support markets.”  
QE Resumption: Large Treasury buys = bond “buy” signal.  
Reverse Repo Adjustments: RRP rate changes signal short-term fixes.  

Market Stress Gauges  
Repo Meltdown:  
• SOFR > 6% = Funding freeze.  
• Higher Collateral Demands (e.g., 105% vs. 102%) = Liquidity crunch.  
Yield Chaos:  
• 10Y/30Y Yields Spike = Fed credibility doubted.  
• Yields Rise Amid Panic = Systemic red flag.  
Basis Trade Collapse:  
• Futures-Cash Spreads Widen = Unwinding accelerates.  

Liquidity Warnings  
Bid-Ask Spreads: 10¢ gaps (vs. 1¢) = Market makers flee.  
Trading Volumes: Plunge = No buyers left.  
ETF Fire Sales: TLT at -5% discount = Forced dumping.  

Power Players  
• Powell: “Monitoring” = Wait. “Acting forcefully” = Move imminent.  
• Treasury: Bill issuance to ease collateral crunches.  
Foreign Banks: China/Japan halting Treasury buys = Dollar crisis risk.  
Bank CDS Spikes: JPMorgan/Citi stress = Fed backstop likely.  

Contagion Watch  
S&P 500 + Bonds Crash = Fed intervenes.  
DXY:  
• Surge = Dollar shortage (QE coming).  
• Collapse = Fed may hike (bonds bleed).  
Gold/Bitcoin Up = Bet against Fed.  

Action Plan  
If Fed Acts:  
• Buy 2Y-5Y Treasuries (fastest rebound).  
• Avoid 30Y bonds (inflation risk).  
• Brace for 5-10% snapback rallies.  

If Fed Fails:  
• Hoard cash.  
• Rotate to gold/francs/crypto.  
• Short equities.  

Monitoring Tools  
• Fed website (statements/meetings).  
• Bloomberg/Reuters (SOFR, auctions).  
• VIX/TED Spread (panic/credit stress).  

Final Word  
Binary Outcome:  
• Fed moves = Buy bonds.  
• No action = Avoid until collapse ends.  
Wait for clear signals—20% gains or 50% losses hinge on it.