Iran indirectly but obviously threatens to use its puppet in the Hezbollah region to support Hamas terrorists in Gaza. Military experts say that if this happens, it will be during the ground phase of the operation against Hamas, when a significant part of Israeli troops, including air defenses, will be concentrated in the south.
The U.S. has unequivocally and repeatedly said it would intervene if Hezbollah went to war.
After failing to assess Hamas’ intentions, no discount should be given to terrorists in the north in terms of their motivation. We need to evaluate the opportunities, and Hezbollah has huge opportunities. After the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Hezbollah, with the help of Iran, continually and unimpededly accumulated weapons on its territory. Today, according to various estimates, the terrorists have an arsenal of 150,000 missiles, some of which are already aimed at Israel. About 10,000 missiles with guidance systems. In addition, Hezbollah fighters, unlike Hamas, have real long-term combat experience in Syria.
In addition to this scenario, there is an Israeli preemptive strike scenario. This fits the logic of Israel’s military doctrine, but Israel may not get the support of its Western allies.
And of course, the third option. It could be that Iran is just dusting its eyes and not ready to act right now, given the all-time support for Israel.