The price of Russian oil broke through the “pain threshold” of the budget: the government will miss a trillion rubles

The collapse of Russian oil prices, which lowered the cost of a barrel of Urals to the levels of the end of 2020, promises a new “pain” to the federal budget, which is made with a deficit of 3 trillion rubles for next year.

Since the beginning of November, the main Russian grade of oil has fallen by almost 30% - twice as much as the North Sea brand Brent, and at the end of last week it cost $ 52 per barrel when shipped from the ports of Novorossiysk and Primorsk.

The few remaining buyers - China, India and Turkey - are demanding discounts already reaching almost 40%. As a result, Russian oil is trading 26% below the level laid down in the budget-2023 – $ 70.1 per barrel.

If the current oil prices and the dollar-ruble exchange rate remain, the budget will not receive up to 1 trillion rubles of oil and gas revenues, analysts estimate Rosbank. In addition to more expensive oil, the projects of the treasury and laid a weaker ruble, they remind: 68.3 rubles per dollar against 61.02 rubles now.

Thus, the budget deficit may increase to 4 trillion rubles. As a result, every seventh ruble that the government plans to spend (a total of 29 trillion) will remain without tax revenue coverage.