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RUSSIA

Russian President Vladimir Putin regards the war in Ukraine as an existential struggle against the West that will determine Russia’s place in the world, Putin’s hold on power, and his historical legacy. Putin remains confident in Russia’s ultimate victory in Ukraine and is prepared to use military force at least through 2025. Putin also remains steadfast in his demand that Ukraine be permanently prohibited from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while insisting Kyiv withdraw all its military forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Despite Western provision of lethal aid to Ukraine, Russia almost certainly seeks to avoid direct conflict with NATO because it assesses it cannot win a conventional military confrontation with the alliance. However, Moscow remains fully capable of employing asymmetric capabilities against the United States and allies, including cyber and information campaigns, and ultimately possesses an existential threat capability with its strategic nuclear forces that can range the U.S. Homeland. The war in Ukraine is part of Putin’s broader objectives to recoup the prestige and global influence that he perceives Russia lost when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and to exercise control over former Soviet states. Russia aims to wield strong influence over these states’ foreign, domestic, and economic policies, while limiting inroads by rival foreign powers. 

Trajectory of Russia’s War in Ukraine

Putin almost certainly is committed to victory in Ukraine, and his objectives remain mostly unchanged since the beginning of the war: Ukrainian neutrality and a further partition of the Ukrainian state. In the absence of a negotiated settlement or, alternatively, robust Western aid, the battlefield outlook probably will continue to slowly trend in Russia’s favor through 2025, though Russian battlefield gains are slowing and continue to come at the expense of high personnel and equipment losses. Since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters, and more than 10 naval vessels. Russia has experienced more than 700,000 personnel casualties during the war. Russian forces maintain small, incremental progress toward capturing portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. To this end, Russia introduced more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers along the Kursk salient to support Russian offensive operations. Simultaneously, Russia is targeting critical Ukraine infrastructure with a combination of one-way attack UAVs and long-range missiles to degrade its national will to fight. While affirming an openness to a negotiated settlement, Russia has remained largely steadfast in its demands for post-conflict Ukrainian neutrality, authority over the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, and a further partitioning of the Ukrainian state. Russia is likely to continue its strategy of attrition, focused on degrading Ukraine’s ability and will to resist through 2025, and allowing Russia to impose its preferred terms in any future negotiated settlement. Although Putin and his military leaders probably would prefer more rapid battlefield gains, Moscow seems comfortable with the current cost of its slow advances, calculating they can steadily drain Ukraine’s resources and will, and outlast the West’s support for Ukraine. The war against Ukraine has proven costly to the Russian military, especially to Russia’s ground forces, which probably have suffered more than 170,000 fatalities since the war began.