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> The bottom line: Expectation is the horizontal dashed line. Formal result is the jagged red line, which plots the cumulative deviation of trial Z-scores from expectation. Smooth curves show envelopes for probability against chance.
The bottom line: Expectation is the horizontal dashed line. Formal result is the jagged red line, which plots the cumulative deviation of trial Z-scores from expectation. Smooth curves show envelopes for probability against chance.


P(Z > e) = P(Z  e) = P(Z  e) = P(Z < e) + P(Z = e) * exp(-i Z/e)


e = exp(-i Z/e)


Z = exp(−i Z/e) * exp(−i Z/e)


e = exp(-i Z/e)

So the expectation was greater than the actual result. What's the expected value of Z-score in this case? Well