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KC-10 Driver ✈B-737 Wrangler @MCCCANM - A few things to know about the ATC reduction in flights:
1) This will be a nightmare for airline scheduling. We have reductions at some airports regularly through Ground Delay Programs (GDPs). Maybe 6 or 7 airports some days. 40 is WILD.
2) The airlines can’t “just cancel” 10% of flights. That leaves jets & crews out of place for the next flight, or getting home, etc..
3) These kind of things tend to cascade into delays & cancelations even at airports not among the 40. Pilots, FAs, jets all get out of position to operate the next scheduled flight.
4) The airlines have mechanisms to change the crew’s schedule, but labor contracts often make doing so prohibitively expensive by design; if it didn’t, schedulers would solve all their problems this way & there would be no point to having a schedule at all. There are some exceptions, but it’s limited.
5) You could argue airlines need to put more flexibility in the schedule, but this comes with a cost. For example, having two hours between flights instead of one. That seems helpful, but in reality, it means jets arrive and have no gates to park at because the gate that should be open isn’t. Putting more flexibility in the schedule eventually means reducing the total number of flights that can operate from an airport. Reduced supply in the face of increased (& in this case, now out of reach) demand equals higher ticket prices.
6) Airlines can only blame the FAA for the first event in a sequence of delays & cancelations, or a later event if the same type of delay is ordered. Everything that comes after – even when it’s obviously a result of the original FAA delay – gets reported in a category that absolves the FAA from blame (that’s a complicated one to explain…the rule changed in 2003. You’ll have to trust me). Which means the cascade effects all get dumped in the laps of the airlines.
7) This affects the way the DOT collects delay & cancelation data, and guarantees that no matter how bad the FAA gets, the airlines look worse. It’s a clever trick.
8) The airlines collect their own, separate data so they can see the real reasons & try to fix problems. This is why the FAA will claim one thing & the airlines will claim another. I’d go with the airlines numbers.
Anyway, hope those help add some context as this unfolds. More importantly, I hope this doesn’t happen at all. It will be a mess.
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Kris Van Cleave @krisvancleave
The FAA is ordering at 10% reduction in flights in 40 high volume markets starting Friday. DOT is not yet releasing the list but will brief airlines later today. This will result in thousands of cancellations starting Friday. The FAA says ATC fatigue and staffing are the issue
https://x.com/MCCCANM/status/1986228925161480266
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