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At what IQ does taking the outside view become harmful? If IQ is the wrong metric, what's the right one? Or is "the outside view" always a good prior, but most people lack the ability to update their beliefs properly?
At what IQ does taking the outside view become harmful? If IQ is the wrong metric, what's the right one? Or is "the outside view" always a good prior, but most people lack the ability to update their beliefs properly?