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> The expected number of actual people trying the quantum billionaire trick is much smaller than the expected number of fictional people written by Scott trying it
Scott's only one man, and he won't likely be making the same kind of rationalist-y fiction you can hypothesise about by knowing Scott's writing decades from now, and he hasn't even written on the quantum billionaire trick, so the expectation that gives me is <1. What kind of assumptions are you making to get expectations that make a Pascal's-Mugging-adjacent "even a little bit" argument viable?