>>/5634/
> Can you show me the math of Cat trying to burst the dragon's chain with bare paws (DC20 STR check) vs. hitting it (AC19, 10HP)? Is Emboldening Bond and Bless still in effect? I guess yes.
I think I've done this right
Breaking the chain: 1 turn
[STR 1d20+4+1d4EB vs DC20] 37.5% chance of success with bare hands. With a crowbar you have advantage, so roughly double the odds but subtract the duplicates 60.9%
Without Advantage (A)
∴P(H1)=A
With Advantage (B)
∴P(H1∪H2)=A+A−A×A=B
Attacking the chain: 1 turn
Using Reckless Attack to gain advantage or not, Rage adds +2 to damage, you need 10HP so I'd use the sword, if it hits, you'll naturally be over 10HP
[1d20+7+1d4BLESS vs AC19] without advantage 54.7%
If you use a reckless attack, it will leave you vulnerable to advantage next turn when others attack you. However, your odds become &[(.525+.525)-(.525x.525)=79.5%
So you should attack it with your Great sword if you want the best odds with reckless attack 79.5%, without reckless attack then the best odds are using a crowbar and a strength check with Embolding bond within 30ft of Alice 60.9%. There's one chain holding the correction chain, the spiked choker. There is then 2 other chains to hit/break to completely free the dragon if that's your wish. One will free her legs, one will free her wings. If you free the choker, the dragon can choose to try to break her leg chains, but her wing chains are beyond her.