Update (0920ET): A Spanish government spokesman has responded to Puigdemont's address, saying that "Spain will not comment on comments by Puigdemont who is out of a job."
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As we detailed earlier, in a pre-record message this morning, Catalan separtist leader Carles Puigdemont urged Catalans to peacefully oppose Spain's formal takeover of the region's affairs.
Puigdemont said the activation of article 155 of the Spanish Constitution was illegitimate and called on Catalans to show "patience, perseverance" and faith in the future, and urged "democratic opposition" against Spanish government orders to sack his administration and dismiss the regional parliament.
As The Spain Report notes, he announced he Catalans must "continue defending" their new republic "with a sense of civic responsibility," adding "our will is to continue working to guarantee our democratic mandate".
The use of Article 155 to suspend home rule in Catalonia was a "premeditated attack on the majority will of Catalans" and "contrary" to democracy.
Puigdemont also called on pro-independence Catalans to be respectful of fellow Catalans who are in favor of Catalonia remaining within Spain. Puigdemont didn’t mention central government orders to remove him.
Presumably, Puigdemont's calls suggest a strategy designed to compare Madrid's forcefulness to Catalan's peaceful protest, perhaps in an effort to garner more international favor - as most of the 'developed' nations issued statements overnight declining to reecognize Catalonia and fully backing the establishment's Spanish government.
Live broadcasts showed Puigdemont in a bar in the town of Girona at the time of the televised speech.
LATEST: Puigdemont was actually out drinking wine and having lunch in Girona at time of his pre-recorded message on TV3, @laSextaTV reports. pic.twitter.com/E40z58S6Qi
— The Spain Report (@thespainreport) October 28, 2017
Puigdemont declined to speak to reporters when he left the bar shortly after the speech.
Meanwhile, Spain begins implementation of Article 155:
Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria takes over the management of the Catalonia area after Madrid took its autonomous status yesterday and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy fired the regional government, the agencies said, reports sega.
Spain's Interior Minister Juan Ignacio Zoido is leading the Catalonian police after the chief of police, Jose Luis Trapero, was removed. Both decisions enter into force immediately.
However, La Vanguardia reports, members of the Catalan government don’t plan to accept being removed, citing sources it doesn’t name, though oit is unclear exactly what they will do. The Catalan government is reportedly preparing next steps in line with proclamation approved yesterday by the regional Parliament. Among the possibilities being weighed is calling constituent elections before the end of the year.
So what happens next?
The Duran.com's Adam Garries lays out 5 possible scenarios...
1. Madrid ignores the implementation of the declaration of independence
In many ways, it seems counter-intuitive to list this as the ‘most peaceful short term option’, not least because there is ostensibly no bigger insult to a peoples than to simply ignore their declaration of independence. This is ironically, not necessarily the case with Catalonia.
The very reason that Catalan independence was not declared on the 2nd of October is because the Catalan leadership are very moderate in their approach to the issue. Forgetting whether one finds the Catalan leaders inspiring or incipient, the fact of the matter is that they did not so much say “give me liberty or give me death” as they said “give me European values and give me those values on my terms at the soonest possible date after a period of polite discussions”.
Because Catalonia has shown the propensity to wait for a good faith negotiation partner during a very trying month and because furthermore, many Catalan politicians have insisted that they seek peace and cooperation whenever possible, the onus therefore is now very much on Madrid to de-escalate the situation.
Madrid could still go through with the technical firing of the Catalan government in order to administer the humdrum business of daily life in Catalonia for an interim period on their terms, but if Madrid were to officially adopt a position of ignoring the formal independence vote, it could still negotiate with independence leaders in another capacity.
The west, including Spain, continually speaks of ‘moderate rebels’ in places throughout the world, notably Syria, in spite of the fact that they are acting violently, using terrorism as their de-facto means of ‘political expression’, are mostly foreign proxies and are violating not only national but international law. With the exception of Catalonia violating Spanish law, included the much hated 1978 Spanish constitution, which many see as overtly Francoist in nature, none of this applies to Catalonia.
No one can reasonably say that Catalan independence supporters or their leaders are terrorists or post a direct threat to world peace as al-Qaeda, the FSA, Kurdish ethno-nationalists and ISIS do in places like Syria or Iraq. Furthermore, unlike Middle Eastern Kurds who are something of Israel’s de-facto regional puppets, Catalan independence movements have been part of Iberian history going back centuries. The Catalan struggle, in other-words, predates the creation of the dastardly Israeli colonial state, the birth of George Soros, the idea of the New World Order and the advent of neo-liberal economics. To therefore say that Catalan independence is about any of these things, as many have, fails to realise the long historical basis which underlies recent events in Catalonia.
Because of this, Madrid has nothing to lose, yet much to gain from engaging in negotiations with the leaders of the independence movement. Had Madrid negotiated directly with the leaders in Barcelona, the entire independence movement may have fizzled-out over time, in the same way that Brexit appears to be doing in another EU state, or otherwise, Madrid could have agreed to a situation whereby Catalonia settles on an Andorra like solution whereby Catalonia becomes a state formally protected by Spain (as Andorra is technically protected by France), while technically enjoying the desired benefits of EU membership which logically derive from the ‘protector’ state. Because of Catalonia’s size vis-a-vis Andorra, some sort of financial agreement could be agreed upon on a per annum basis.
Such a solution would require creativity, but crucially it requires no blood and could be arranged to create face-saving and money saving measures that cover both sides in terms of economic, political and even ego driven requirements and desires. It is still not too late to achieve this as the “slowly-slowly” attitude in Barcelona has not dramatically changed, in spite of recent dramatic events. In this sense, yesterday’s vote was more of a sign that Barcelona is not bluffing, that it is a sign that Madrid is now an automatic enemy of the largely unrecognised new Catalan Republic.
2. Barcelona initiates a dialogue process….and it works
It must be re-stated that one of the reasons Catalonia implemented a declaration of independence yesterday was because it felt it had no option to do anything else. If Catalonia’s leaders did nothing while Madrid moved to abolish their autonomy, they would have looked weak before the eyes of their constituents and ineffective in the eyes of the world from which they will need to garner support, in one way or another.
Thus, we now know that Catalonia’s leaders have the collective strength to do what they said they would do. But can they now do something more difficult? Can they offer the wider world an option that cannot be refused?
Catalonia has gone out of its way to do that which, for example, the Kurds in the Middle East have not done. While Kurds have resorted to armed conflict and terrorism in their disregard for both national and international law, Catalans have practised entirely peaceful civil disobedience in arguable violation of national law, but in full compliance with EU law which is theoretically superior to national law in many cases, among member states.
The fact that Catalans are being totally disregarded by most EU states and the EU itself, is symptomatic of double-standards in the west, whereby an armed terrorist in Asia or Africa is a ‘freedom fighter’, but peaceful individuals initiating a controversial but totally non-violent political process in the west, are somehow bandits. Furthermore, Catalonia is a regional crisis and for the EU, an existential crisis. Such a reality is miles away from the very real security crisis that Turkey, Syria and Iran felt when Iraqi Kurds, machine guns in hand, voted in a secession referendum which went beyond their legally defined autonomous borders within Iraq. Again, none of this applies to Catalonia.
If followed to its logical conclusion, Catalonia can now call on international mediators to instigate a process for dialogue that Madrid simply could not ignore. If such a process fails, it will represent a total failure of the so-called international community. If not a single nation, not the UN, not a former UN Secretary General, not a single peace activist can step forward and heed Catalonia’s calls for a truly international dialogue process to be organised, then there truly is no international community to speak of. It certainly behoves Catalonia to attempt and find out.
3. Duelling governments in Barcelona
Madrid is set to appoint a new interim leadership in Barcelona who will answer directly to the Spanish government, while calling for new elections to form a Catalan parliament in December. The effectiveness of such a move depends on the de-facto current leaders in Barcelona (Puigdemont et al.) and their supporters simply going away quietly.
If anyone thinks it is likely that after a long standoff which was capped by the declaration of a Catalan Republic will end the moment Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy sends ‘his man’ to Barcelona, then they are not living in the real world.
With two competing governments in Barcelona, the short term confusion and deadlock could lead to disaster, as shall be explored in the following two, very un-peaceful possibilities.
4. Mass arrests of Catalan independence leaders
Spain has already set a worrying precedent by arresting Catalan independence organisers on sedition charges. There are now open fears that such a precedent could now lead to the arrest of the entire de-facto leadership in Barcelona, as well as many members of the Catalan parliament (even though the vote for independence was conducted via secret ballot).
This would not only set-off an uncontrollable chain reaction of fear and almost certainly violence in Catalonia and beyond, but would set off a chain of lawsuits which would test the primacy of national law versus EU and international law. If Madrid were to invoke the most neo-Francoist elements of its constitution and subsequently conduct mass arrests reminiscent of the 1930s, it would not only embolden more Catalans than ever in their desire to breakaway from Spain permanently, but it will be guaranteed to keep both the European Court of Human Rights and the European Court of Justice busy for years if not decades to come.
The legal issues which currently exist, could and should be solved through mediation followed by an accord. However, if mass arrests of prominent Catalan leaders are conducted by Spain, a larger legal Pandora’s Box would be flung open and more importantly, any claim of a peaceful regional dispute would be forever lost. Instead, it would be a repeat of the 1930s in more ways than one, combined with the legal labyrinth of 21st century judicial mechanisms.
5. Civil War
Depending of various push-pull factors at play, a repeat, however microcosmic, of the 1930s Spanish Civil War could take place. If Madrid cracks down hard on political leaders, demonstrators and other civil bodies in Catalonia, it is possible that Catalans could find the means to arm themselves and fight back.
If an armed struggle took place in the heart of the EU, not only would it quite possibly be the end of Spain and western Europe as we know it, but it could be the end of the EU…full stop.
Whatever would be leftover, would by definition be unrecognisable and only a great deal of effort to put the region back together could restore peace.
For mercenary thinkers who see questions of war and peace simply in economic terms, it is worth saying this: for the moment, the Catalan crisis has not drastically impacted global markets. If things escalate into an armed civil conflict, it will impact markets, but primarily in Europe with some ricochets in North America. The rest of the world will remain financially stable.
This will be the ultimate sign that an Iberian peninsula which once ruled large quarters of the world, is now reduced to a corner of a European Union that far from leading the world, can now, barely lead itself.
In many ways, this will be the ultimate wake-up call.
"but it could be the end of the EU…full stop"
Sounds like a good thing to me, but big gubmint lovers won't think so.
I doubt the Policia Nacional or Guardia Civil know peaceful.
If Spain were pro-Russian they would bomb it for 78 days as they did to Serbia in 1999 when Kosovo Albanians wanted their independence. At least, Spain is one of the few EU countries that has never recognized Kosovo's independence.
Spain is counting on you being peaceful. Prepare for an ass kicking if you decide to roll like that.
Puigdemont speaks of peaceful resistance, but the sword on the statue used as background tells another story.
http://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/jpg/8/0/1509056039008.jpg
So, help me out here...
What is the name of this form of government where the people vote 90% to secede and yet, the "mother" bird country does not allow the chicks to leave the nest. Is this an aviocrasy?
Madrid is flipping them the bird.
peaceful rebellion = max 30 clip mags and distant sniping at heads of state ONLY!
Wow look at the flags, the Catalan and the EU flag, that shows you their intentions. Get your sovereignty to immediately give it away to Brussels. And, suddently, all you geopolitical wankers get a coitus interruptus.
Both sides are assholes, Rajoy and his brutality, Catalonian sessionists and their lies, fully intending to hand Catalonia over to the EU.
GO STRAIGHT UP TO NUMERO CINCO!!
CATALUNYA ARMADA!!
you mean firearms? those phallic objects of fascist patriarchal oppression? the Catalan independence movement is a pacifist feminist movement, they will never used those objects.
Why has the Catalan government not yet gone to the U.N. for protections?
Interesting signal.
Gee, I wonder why
Sure. Another one is Cyprus - for obvious reasons as well.
Catalan somehow managed to select the wrong leader, just like the Greeks did. They have been betrayed or Puigdemont simply does not have the fortitude to do the job. Either way they must reject him, if he is the enemy's agent they must eliminate him permanently. Or they will end up with the same results as the Greeks got.
Peacefully resist? How do you do that when another govt moves in and takes over and removes your govt? By peacefully voicing complaints within the enemies channels? By counting on the enemies generosity? To expect it to be handed to them?
Nice touch by Spain selecting a woman to lead and be their public face. If history serves, the most effective reaction is a policy of assassination of the enemies heads of govt.. Even women heads of course. They are not set up to match one for one with Spain's military, it must be dirty war. Or roll over and just be a bitching movement like the greeks.
So a bank run this weekend?
>Peaceful
They should be calling their people to arms. Raid any government military facilities and distribute rifles to every man.
If they fail to do this, then Catalonia will fall and be occupied by Spain until Spain herself collapses.
The nature of what is to come is probably revealed by how many armories were left unlocked.........
Violent insurrection is a false narrative, Spain is a member of NATO. Catalans would be facing NATO...
Last place in Europe that happened was Yugoslavia.
The best hope Catalonia has is International support which would cause the matter to be settled with other parties at the table in addition to Spain. / The mediation approach which Catalonia has called for from the start.
NATO won't intervene in a civil conflict. Might even kick Spain out.
Yugoslavia was not a part of NATO.
Mediation would be good, but without force of arms to back up their claims of independance, they are all talk.
I don't understand your use of civl conflict and force of arms expressions in context. They seem contradictory.
If Catalonia is a self declated Nation State then much is down to interpretation of International Law - which historically has been muddy at best.
Catalonia as a independent is not welcome in Europe, I cannot imagine it to be welcome in NATO.
The closer reality is that it may exist as a "Government in Excile" for a short time with Embassies in Nations reluctant to reposses any such named buildings. The victory from this is the exposure of the corruption and intransigence of the Spannish Govt. and perhaps a new anniversary to remember. Economically Spain's failure to resolve this has set the country back 10 years - secession does not flourish in a healthy democracy.
>civl conflict
Nato isn't going to get involved in a civil war in a member nation.
>force of arms
It Catalonia attempts to present itself as an independent state without a military, they will be laughed out of the room when it comes time for arbitration. Spain will just roll over them. Then the locals will become disobedient, and things escalate from there until Spain collapses.
>Catalonia as a independent is not welcome in Europe, I cannot imagine it to be welcome in NATO.
It won't be a part of either of those organizations.
>Economically Spain's failure to resolve this has set the country back 10 years
At least. I'd say they are well on their way to a second starving time.
There are two Catalonia narratives:
One as a newly hatched Catalan Republic: CR
The other as a breakaway Autonomous Region of España: CES.
CR if it matured into a conflict could be argued to not be a region of Spain (int. Law) - Nato could be deployed in 1st instance as a "peacekeeper" at Spain's invitation. I don't believe it will go that route, too many diverse factions on Catalan side. Spain's position is far more simple. But can reflect badly outside of Spain further fueling CR movement.
CES is now under governance of Ms Santamaria, we shall see how that is received and if CR rears its head and how in days/weeks months ahead.
>second starving time. If so Spain has learnt nothing of value since the 70's. I do not see international players queing up to relocate to Spain as a result of their handling of this situation. Winner Poland.
Could the down voters kindly explain how Catalonia could win that firefight?
Yugoslav wars were 1991 -1999 & 2001. I guess Catalonia is not that hungry to go into Economic collapse/World Bank Serfdom.
The Yugoslavia comparison that I've made here and in other threads is essentially summarised in Yugoslav. Documentary:-The Weight of Chains movie plot summary in previous comment. Which tells how conflict there brought profits to WB IMF ECB & other named US players:
The film claims that U.S. interests in Yugoslavia promoted "a market-oriented Yugoslav economic structure" through the National Endowment for Democracy, and the G17 Plus as part of a policy of "privatization through liquidation" that increased ethnic tensions in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Western nations, both openly diplomatically and covertly militarily, supported separatist groups and encouraged conflict so that NATO could be installed as peacekeepers for their own interests. A cigarette factory that was bombed by NATO was later bought by Philip Morris, which the film presents as an example, that the purpose of the war was economic colonization of the country.
I didn't downvote you, but Catalonia could win simply by making it too expensive for anyone, Spain or otherwise, to occupy them.
Asymmetric warfare. Maybe some terrorism in Spain. A bullet through Rajoy's brainpan might make the next guy think twice.
I've considered that avenue, though in Israel's case regarding the executions of Hamas leaders following the Munich Olympics Terrorism the view expressed publically was that worse (more vicious) leaders replaced the ones executed. (the violence begats violence view).
I'm undecided how such an approach could play out. Sure Rajoy is a POS and one allied to Falangist Franco legacies if the gossip is to be believed.
>Asymmetric Warefare... is an interesting ideal if Freedom & Liberty is taken as an Ideal. - One difficulty is the support from the populus would implode, most being mortgage payers and unawakened "eaters" with little thought to the subjugation to ECB, World Bank etc. Few would realize that if Puigdemont was recognzed as a President of a Country, the first thing that would happen would be a visit from an EHM.
All it takes to awaken fanatical nationalism is a foreign enemy on one's own soil.
And so begins the false construct of the Nation State (and simultainiously - Serfdom).
Wildlings North of the Wall at least have their liberty. Perhaps Free Man of The Land will become more popular as a result of this?
The Basques nationalists waged a 40 year low level guerrilla war against Spain with 800 dead. Guess what, they are still in Spain and pacified. They were not crushed before because they had sanctuary in France, but not anymore.
This ain't Murica. But yes... As I said before, this would be a first. Talking your way into independence. Usually some war is involved. Accept Catalonia is "David" and Spain is "Goliath". Catalonia is taking the underdog role. That POS Rajoy so far has been restraining himself. Put simple. Catalonia doesn't have the means or allies to start a war. Calling for some armed rebellion is not wise.
It's up to them IMO. Sure, arm yourselves. But don't to full retard.
A very interesting and " complex" political struggle is going on here. It intrigues me. I'm neutral. It's not time to take sides yet as outsider. On the one hand this is a deathblow to the TPTB their version of "democracy". Perhaps by design. At least it gets people thinking. They should be wary though. The man behind the curtain has been revealed. His ulterior motives are known. Don't be deceived.
On the other hand this is an internal feud. Don't get confused here and go NWO. It's a Spanish dilemma. Don't go globalist on them.
You can't have your cake and eat it.
>This ain't Murica.
America is not the model here. More like the Spanish resistance to French occupation under Napoleon, or the guarantee of Switzerland's Independence by fully distributed force of arms (IE the militia).
I was referring to the fact gun regulation is very strict. A lot stricter than in the US. And there is no open or conceal carry. Let alone that most people properly know how to use one. No way they can have a militia in no time. For the rest? It's 2017. Different times.
As an outsider with some local interests I'm interested how this plays out. I've been both pleased and dissappointed by wise and not so wise plays made by the Cat. Republicans. They've been both well and (very) badly informed at different times. Well enough to create a Republic - no, not by some distance. Well enough to wake up the population to the importance of taking politics seriously, and seeking to be better informed - and perhaps making a proper stand against (((it))) - I fucking hope so.
He's a politician.
The last thing he wants is guns in the hands of ordinary men.
+1! They use silly words as weapon or let the military do the "talking". Accept... He has none.
In order to cofront The Great Synedrion planetary role one needs a great number of nukes.
"Raid any government military facilities and distribute rifles to every man"...sure the Spanish are stupid and leave warehouses full of weapons in Catalonia. The army in Catalonia is two half-strenght battalions for the 7.5M region. It seems about right given the quality of the possible opposition.
Puigdemont talks too much and does too little
Like an American politician who rises up only because he promises more 'free stuff' but never has to deliver or explain why!
My advice to all Catalonians would be: Pray for Peace but Prepare for War.
Expect that fuckstick Spanish PM Rajoy to go direct to arrests and guns. The guy is the proverbial Spanish hot head.
Rajoy is a psychopathic douchenozzle for sure, however the Catalans leaders are corrupt psychopaths too. This will end up being like Occupy Wall Street I think and fizzle out over time. Catalans were having fun when they could march around with their flags and video tape themselves being roughed up by the police but I don't think they have the will to fight this one until the death.
Just my hunch without being there, having never been there either :)
We'll see water cannons, tear gas and rubber bullets in use at will to break up demonstrations from now on.
Their use in Catalonia was banned previously, now with direct rule such niceties will be quickly forgotten.
Santamaria will be out to make a name for herself for her own political leadership gambit.
The real next generation candidate of the PP is Xavier Garcia Albiol of the PPC. Who will be put forward as a Catalan to bridge the (growing?) divide.
if I see old catalonia men and women with bloody heads I am boycotting spain until forever.
That Pigdemont guy is standing right next to the E.U. flag. No sympathy for this "rebellion" if they're hoping to get independence only to become a vassal state of the E.U.
That is exactly what they want. I'm almost surprised ZH members didn't latch on to the wording of the independence declaration, which defined Catalonia as a social democracy. Social! Clearly these Catalonian separatists are globalist commies. Unfortunately for them Spain is already a member of that club, making it politically quite difficult for the EU to recognize Catalonia. No EU member state is going to go solo on that.
It now becomes clear that has no plan of action. So they are screwed.
Contrast with Lenin's careful plans for the day of the October Revolution.
Puigdemont is not dealing with the British as was Ghandi, unlike them the Spaniards will act ruthlessly.
Sadly I think you have a point.
Overambitious and underequipped? - I think US/EU threw international support under the bus with: "trade sanctions will follow". suggestion which should have been seen 1000 miles off.