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Still, I think it's going to be hard to avoid a spurt. Admittedly we have a form-strong Louis Barré, and like last year, the UAE comes with a very strong team for a tough race. It just did last year, where they ended up being quite toothless, and there is great uncertainty about the shape of their riders. History shows that it is difficult to avoid a spurt when we end with several rounds, and I can seriously doubt whether the climbs are difficult enough and run hard enough that you can get a small group that can cooperate. It may have to be done through tactics rather than purely through good legs.
At the same time, most teams have a fast man, and although they know that they may not beat Jasper Philipsen and Paul Magnier, a podium is also worth going with, and we have seen some surprising outages in the sprints here. Therefore, Alpecin and Soudal probably get help, and since they are also quite strong, they can be difficult to crack when the wind probably helps it, and the tray is placed further from goal than in the past.
My conclusion is that I think it's going to be very hard to avoid a spurt. It's going to set out the new route, and so does the wind. There are also too many teams that will spurt. I don't think I'm going to have a particularly selective run either. As I said, we had a rather small field when we got a spurt in 2022, but last year we had 70 men – with Kooij and Jeanniere – on a historically hard route. Now the route is easier and we even have further from the top of last climb to goal. I therefore believe that we can have an even less selective race, where the sprinters also have better time than usual to regain position after the last climb. We have already seen that you do not have to be top climbers to survive, but we also know that you do not come home for free.