Hah. I wonder how anything like claim even alluding to LoTR and all being real could ever be supported or substantiated. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
First things first, some time ago I found this pic and I've made a connection between how J.R.R.T. logo/sigil, whatever you want to call it (looks like this 束 - coincidentally a chinese character for a bundle of sticks or a fasces). Not exactly sure what to make of it.
Next thing I'd like to mention is an idea I picked up from JayDreamerZ and that is his theory that vampires and elves are the same thing or point to the same type of entity.
Tolkien's elves are quite demigodly. They're immortal and very powerful, at least compared to elves in most other fantasy settings where they are just more magically attuned and perceptive humans that live longer. Maybe there is a connection to be made between Tolkien's elves and the tall whites or 'nordics' that are spoken about among UFO contactees. I think admiral Byrd also mentioned those in his diary describing his venture into the depths of the Earth. Considering that a possibility we get into the question of nephilim tribes (on a side note those elongated Paracas skulls bring to mind the helmets of elves in Warhammer and there's a shitton of references to occult in Warhammer). Here's where the connection between elves and vampires would come into play - deities the pagans worshipped tend to require very bloody sacrifices. Taking aside adrenochrome farming maybe there were some creatures that required blood for sustenance or somehow were able to harvest energy in some form out of it and those rituals were either set up by them or remained among the people as a traumatic remnant of life under them in the past.
That's a lot of maybes and stretches but I think there might be something to this.
Last thing is something I've heard Occultscience101 mention, namely that the two trees from The Silmarilion are pretty much what the two kaballistic pillars are meant to point to and that is some form of reality altering 'machinery' that got broken a long, long time ago, leaving us humans in the shitty, broken reality that isn't working as it is supposed to. I don't know what to think about that, it's something wildly outside of my spectrum of knowing I'm afraid but I like keeping snippets like that somewhere in the back of my mind in case I stumble across a piece of information that gives it more context or brings an interesting connection about.
I can't say anything about Tolkien's works talking about real history verbatim but they do have allusions to occult lore in them, that's for sure.