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Position of the Russian Federation.(2/3)
Failure to reorganize troops structurally means only one thing: the absence of new tactics and strategies. Most of their trump cards WSRF (except, perhaps, the fatal nuclear or combat gases) have already thrown out of hand on the table. No matter how long the fighting lasts, we will not see anything new for the rest of the time. Frontal attacks with “meat”, missile strikes “in milk” and a formidable shaking of the fist in response to the violation of the next “red line” – this is, most likely, the limit of the VSRF and the entire establishment of the Russian Federation in principle.
Reorganization and insufficient number of personnel on the front line to allocate them to new units with specially trained command staff. Even if manpower reserves were found, there would not be enough money to equip them.
Here we come to the key theme of 2024 - the topic of possible re-mobilization.
For the continuation of mobilization is the fact that sooner or later will end not just stormtroopers, but also defenders. Attempts to attract migrants to the army are actively continuing - but, again - without a system of constant recruitment, recruitment into units and training - experienced meat will simply be replaced by inexperienced, often with a rural level of thinking and without a normal understanding of the Russian language.
Against the continuation of mobilization and the theoretical “second wave” the most weighty argument is the structure of the Russian economy. Russia is the largest post-industrial European country. The agricultural sector has long been occupied by agricultural concerns. The industrial era was passed during the Soviet Union, the collapse of which created a new economy: the economy of services, the economy of information technology and the economy of oil rent. Even in order to pump oil, Russia needs a lot of highly qualified personnel, which in the current conditions cannot be replaced by migrants even from the first world countries.
Re-mobilization, in the same form as it took place in the autumn, will simply bring the country to its knees and, in short, paralyze the front, instead of strengthening it. The system of permanent recruitment and training of personnel to replace the frontline units that have been for several months in a row does not exist in principle. They just couldn't make it. In fact, people are randomly summoned by subpoenas, as they happen to be equipped and landed in the trenches. To hold the position of such "reserves" will simply not be able.
Even if all the stars converge, and, within the framework of a pure physical hypothesis, we assume that mobilization will be carried out, and carried out successfully, and the economy will not collapse - without a coherent system of organization of the mobilized and equipment, delivery to the front and subsequent supply will become a difficult, almost impossible task. The main vehicle for major continental armies is the railway. The number of cars and locomotives, as well as their material and even engineering supply, has been in critical condition since 2022. The fact that only two of the major railway branches under the control of the Russian Federation remained in close proximity to the front (through the Crimea and through the LDNR), moreover, not parallel to each other, but ringed - means that the capacity, even when solving the problem with technical equipment, will be severely limited by infrastructure. Those who ride on the rain, probably saw how slow and long go heavy locomotives and how much space they occupy. The two-track, designed under the USSR, simply will not stand. Taking into account the fact that the AFU has long-range high-precision weapons, strikes on trains, as was already the case in Dzhankoy, will become commonplace.
Bottom line: the GSRF of the 2022 format, under the leadership of Pynyaregima, is not able to win. We need new military structures and institutions, we need a radical renewal of the officer corps (the change of Dvornikov to Surovkin and then you know who the fuck - it turned out to be a banal change of wool for soap, but I wrote about it when only Surovkin was appointed. Archives remember. The Russian Federation has all the means to create them in theory, but in practice everything hits the passive state of the Pyniaregime I described earlier.