Russia will not have enough tankers to transport oil after the European embargo

So far, Russia has successfully redirected its oil from Europe, which has been gradually reducing its purchases since the start of the war in Ukraine, to Asia. But once the flow to Europe dries up completely, the transport problem will become one of the main ones: to carry oil to Asia much further, and this requires other tankers. There are not enough of these ships.

In October, about 750,000 barrels per day were delivered to Europe from Russia by sea, according to Bloomberg, which collects shipping information. The embargo will come into force on December 5. Another 650,000 barrels per day are delivered through the Druzhba pipeline. Poland and Germany intend to stop buying this oil from the new year (Hungary and Slovakia will continue to receive some volume). In total, about 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day from next year will remain ownerless.

According to the calculations of the analytical company Vortexa, if all the oil that is supplied to Europe is transferred to “friendly” countries (this is primarily China, India and Turkey, which have greatly increased its purchases since March), 219 tankers of different sizes will be needed. This is three times more than was used to transport Russian oil in October. The shortage of ice-class tankers for exporting oil through the Baltic Sea in winter will be particularly acute. Even if they are used only to transport goods to the Atlantic Ocean for transshipment to supertankers, it will be difficult for Russia to maintain exports at the same level.