/kc/ - Krautchan

 >>/54212/
cont.
And then there can be long term considerations, all investments could be useless. Chances for an actual war for NATO countries against a similar adversary is pretty slim. Nuclear deterrence is specifically there to avoid such things. Their future enemies still are the bearded towelheads in robes and flipflops with AKs.

Another not so fresh news: how that 100K shells/month by 2025 thing stands. In 2024 October.
So at 2022 Feb US made 14,400 shells per month.
They planned to up that to 100K.
By 2022 sept, they were producing 28K
By 2024 October that was 40K.
And they aimed 55K by the end of the year... ie. by 2025

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/10/14/army-races-to-widen-the-bottlenecks-of-artillery-shell-production/

 >>/54219/
And have to remember: all the shells the West ("West" like Czechia) provided are either were from weapon depots, or purchased third parties's weapon depots. Not nearly enough production.
Russia too got stock shells from Best Korea, but they make 250K a month now.

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Video of Putin listening Gerasimov's sitrep, and tells him he announces truce for Easter. Subtitles by Michael Rossi, video is from his yt channel.

Truce is over. Both sides blaming the other for not keeping the truce. What a shock.

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Recurring theme for commentators of the Russo-Ukrainian War that the Dniepr will be the new border, it will be the line where the front stops.
I do agree that it is convenient to imagine it to be and attractive to imagine that.
This belief is strong all over the globe, and I have to call it a trope, that rivers are great borders, a natural separators, barriers when it comes to nations, countries, states, warring parties. And there are a couple of examples where a river is a border between two countries, and historically during wars (such as WWII) often along rivers were the lines where the front stabilized (for a while at least). Romanians are all for the fact to move their borders up to rivers and consider those as their natural borders.
But this is a misconception. There is some truth to it as I mentioned but rivers aren't separators, rivers always connected civilizations. In the antiquity was there Eastern and Western Egypt? No. There was a Lower and Upper Egypt - connected by the Nile. The Mesopotamian states were devided to Sumer south and Akkad north, both ethnicity spreading left and right. The Habsburg monarchy formed along the Danube on both sides.
Real barriers are the mountains. The Pirenese, the Alps, and yes, the Carpathians - ask the 4th Ukrainian front that was tasked to break through in the NE Carpathians where the 6th German and the 1st Hungarian armies held the mountains. Rivers, yes they can be convenient to cross, but mountains can be made impossible. It's the Himalaya that separates India and China, not the Indus.
The South Russian steppes are riddled with large rivers. Dniester, Dniepr, Donets, Don, and the Volga itself. None stopped the steppe people ever.
So yes, the Dniepr is a big wide blue line and looks like a great divide and it is possible that the final line at least partially will settle there, but not because rivers are so great static barriers. It is the ethnic division that could play more role why Russia wouldn't want the western regions.
But even now, Russia claims Kherson, which major, important parts on the other side of the Dniepr. And what about Odessa?
So I believe: yes, but not really.

India vs. Pakistan
Both are rattling their sabers, some terrorist "terrorists"? in Punjab who are hiding out in Pakistan. etc.
Listening to Firstpost news. It's Indian news agency so their side is covered. They are not pleased by Trump, who speaks of solidarity but financing Pakisani F-16 maintenance with $400 million.

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This India-Pakistan conflict reminds me of this.
> next civil war will happen in social media
> next india-paki war will happen in social media
Fake videos from vidya and belligerent tweets. Just wait and see.

Next long term budget by EU starts by 2028. They are starting to shape it, I found something interesting here:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20250502IPR28212/parliament-s-priorities-for-the-eu-s-post-2027-long-term-budget
> Parliament’s vision and demands for the EU’s 2028-2034 budget
> have to address Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine
So they still expecting the war to go on three years from 2025. Who will fight it? Primary school students of Ukraine?

Löl.
This story about Hungarian military spies gathering info for a Hungarian invasion story is ridiculous.
1. Hungary is in NATO. Whatever NATO knows we know it too.
2. Hungary had to renounce of all previous Hungarian lands in order to be accepted into EU and NATO. Especially NATO does not take states in which have border disputes.
3. Orbán, Szíjjártó and the Fidesz govt. has one good reason to bleet about peace and that the war has to be stopped, etc. If we hit hawkish tunes, right in that seconds the voices around will cry irredentism, and that Hungary wants to take back her historical lands, and this would drive a wedge in the relations with our neighbours. We can't have large military for the same reason, if we'd start to build up to a force of 200K we had in the final days of the communism, it would be cited as rearmament to get back the clay. We also participate in bunch of missions, most of these are peacekeeping, medical, technical whatever forces.

However, as I previously posted about this, I found it likely that NATO countries will occupy parts of Ukraine (the western corner, including Kárpátalja), where they'll enter citing humanitarian crisis, after the AFU collapses and people start to flee to the west. These NATO countries could include Hungary too, although I doubt even this.

Putin talking after Victory Day about the visitors, foreign relations, and the peace offers.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=YpjvoeB1G58
https://youtube.com/watch?v=YpjvoeB1G58
Essentially:
1. Ukraine is nazi;
2. more deals with Chiner;
3. the first Istanbul deal was torpedoed by the West;
4. Moscow wants a truce which isn't used for rearming the AFU and build new fortifications.

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Putin had their phone call with Trump. He said it was very informative and rated it 10/10.

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Ursula Wonder Lyin' tweet.
If the first 16 sanction packages couldn't collapse Russia, are we sure the 17th and the 18th will?
If these will, why not they started with these ones?
I'm just kidding, at this point we all know these sanctions are as useful as enema to the dead.
Related to this. I regularly watch videos from Michael Rossi's channel. It has a livestream series, conversations of various topics in the politics of the globe, the events, the happenings. The host is Pyotr Kurzin, and the other guest besides M Rossi is James Ker-Lindsay. I think all has yt channels, I have not seen anything from the other two dudes.
Now in general I agree on M Rossi's takes or at least I find them understandable, I watched a lot of his videos, I think I can guess his opinions on stuff. I listen the other two dudes in these conversations, and I do find it interesting what they have to say, and there too I can agree on many things. Except when it comes to the EU and Ukraine. Then it's like they are living in an alternative universe. They really think that the EU is stronk, "we" beat Russia, Putin trembles from Starmer and Macron and whoever the German chancellor is, Europe Fuck Yeah, etc. They are so optimistic I bet they just eat all the bs our dear Ursula serves them up.
Back in the 19th century the Ottoman Empire was called the Sick Man of Europe. Today Europe is the Sick Man of Europe. If the Ottomans were judged by the numbers they seemed stronk. When it came to action, they were incapable. Today if we judge by GDP sure EU beats Russia, but when it comes acting, it's a joke. And not because Hungary sabotage everything see how Orbán sabotaged all the 17 sanctions, or the weapon shipments, or all the money given to Ukraine... these all happened not one was taken off the table! but this "coalition of the willing is as weak as a moth's fart. Fucking clowns.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=vETUtYLsLJY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=vETUtYLsLJY

Let's say the war ends "soon" Ukraine gets chopped up in whatever configuration - don't think it matters much for our hypothetical scenario.
Russia has an economy which were adapted for the sanctions and avoiding them, and tuned towards military production. I do not think it's entirely militarized economy as some westerners wants us to think. It will have a large military, and a large group of citizens with appetite for projecting the empire.
But nothing to do.
I'm sure the economy will get rewind some, but it won't be like before the war. I'm also sure one focus will be drones. For both civilian and military applications - there will be lots of drone pilots too.
Anyway. The army. Quite a few soldiers will move to special forces units and PMCs. I think they will be used on various regions of the globe, especially in Africa and the Middle East. As fighting force, as advisors (training and commanding roles), as drone operators, as trainers of local drone operators. Russia will greatly enhance her reach and power projection with them. Pair them with BRICS or other institutions, they might offer economic aid (negotiating for multilateral loans, same how the US does with IMF).
Have to interject for a moment. Russia as an empire does the same as US - builds and maintains a client empire, and she creates the tools for it, just as the US had to in the past 100 years. See the politics thread for the client empire thing.

To counter them the West will use the battle hardened and willing Ukrainians these operators after the war cynic shells, lost their ideological motivation, fueled only by hatred, and perhaps the money they get as they already did against Wagner in Africa.

Will we see development in private wars, initiated by private companies? Similar to cyberpunk wars. It's not that it doesn't have historical precedence, see * India Companies.

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Some stuff to note and make screenshots of.
The new thing is the opening of the Sumy front. While the Russians recaptured the occupied parts of Kursk oblast in April, they pushed into Sumy a bit. Since then they are grinding forward there, and in the past 7 days they did considerable advancements.
It looks something like pic #1. It seems the front moves each day.
Wyatt of DPA speculates that the frontline will stabilize somewhere along the forest, and the Russians will try to move around Sumy on the west.

This front  >>/54194/ doesn't really moves for a while now.

There is a movement from Nevske towards Oskil, on the Lyman front. Russian were here already. They pushed the front to Nevske in 2024 autumn and December where it sit for a while. They captured Ivanivka on the other side of that lake of the Zherebets river on January 6, and the front sit again.
They started to push in March, considerable advancements happened on the 21st, and since then there are captures on most of the days.
Now they are approaching the Nitrius river with its lakes near Karpivka.
Seems might Zelena Dolyna will fall soon.
Matt of WillyOAM speculates they want to push towards the Oskil river, to create a trap on the eastern side of it. They don't have to capture the town of Oskil, just approach towards Lozove and Rubtsi, and from under 10km they could reasonably choke supply flowing in with drones. It will be a serious problem, more serious than that bulge at Kupiansk, for there is no bridge over that segment of the dammed up river.

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 >>/54297/
There was an nice beach at the Oskil.

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The main activity is still in Donetsk, on the Pokrovsk front, or the frontline between Velyke Novosilka and Bakhmut.
The push on this line never stopped since Avdiivka fell. Kurakhove was an important capture, then Velyka Novosilka fell in late January. It as a gradual grind, smaller captures each day.
Big push started at the very end of April north of Ocheretyne in the direction of Konstantynivka. That town is an important bastion on the southern end of that chain of settlements with the Kramatorsk-Slovianks duo on the northern end, which is the biggest prize in Donetsk. I don't think they can storm those places, so it will be important to cut them off, and degrade the AFU enough by then. Ofc, if they atrite them enough, they might  just take everything if the Ukrainian army collapses.
For now I think they try to take Pokrovsk, or rather the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd duo, but for that they need both flanks more spread out and secure, so they can envelope the town and force the AFU out there.

Thinking about the losses. In my opinion they are way overblown in these months.
The footages show handful of soldiers attacking. 8 is a lot. How many of these attacks happen a day at one segment and the whole frontline?
And I also hear stuff that trenches are defended by very few people. Like in a 100 meters of treeline there are two dudes, hidden from both enemy and friendly drones, noone knows where they are in that 100 meters. How many such segments are attacked daily?
And I don't try to imply only the Russians are attacking, they are Ukrainian counter operations.

 >>/54297/
Thinking maybe they'll open the dam at Oskil and drain those lakes to get supply, reinforcement in, and troops out. But then later can't be used as a defensive line as well.

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Matt of WillyOAM said something interestin at the end of yesterday's video. He said smaller nations might seek nuclear armament.
Our politicians do keep mentioning nuclear weapons occasionally.
First I heard Ruszin-Szendi Romulusz, the ex commander in chief (and before that the chief-of-staff) of the Hungarian Defense Forces, in a speech he is against Hungary acquiring a-bombs for those who aspire to get some will end up bad (did a reference to Iran and North Korea).
I found this curious. I thought who the fuck talks about Hungary getting nukes, I wish anyone would contemplate it.
But then, some times later (perhaps about a month or so) someone from the govt. (I can't really remember I thikn it was Orbán himself) said something along the line that implied it's on the table.
So I assume, they did discussed within the government, the defense ministry and the HDF the option to build/buy.
We have an NPP, a nuclear research facility, and the scientists to build them, I assume we need some tech input from somewhere as things stands my first guess is Israel, the second is the US; I don't think Russia would be a possible source for that.
But just a bomb means nothing. We need delivery systems, rockets. I'm not sure how we stand with these. Back in the day the Soviet did stationed a unit equipped with nuclear capable rocket launching systems here.

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I'm hearing from analysts that Russia loses Mali for Wagner leaves it and that Russia overextends and can't held all those lemons. But even mainstream Western media says they just replaced by the so called "Africa Corps" of the Russians.
Fresh news from 3 days ago.
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20250608-wagner-group-leaves-mali-replaced-by-moscow-backed-africa-corps-russia
> A Telegram account affiliated with Wagner said: "Mission accomplished. PMC Wagner is going home." 
> Mali [...] broke off ties with former colonial power France and pivoted towards Russia for political and military support.
> "The Kremlin remains in control;" the same diplomatic source added. 
> Most of the Wagner personnel in Mali, who are originally from Russia, will be reintegrated into Africa Corps
So they don't even leave just switch names.

Three months ago the Austrian army released another video by Colonel Reisner, The Ukrainian Purgatory. He basically summarized the events happened since the previous one. He tries his best to sound as optimist as possible while sticking to the not so rosy facts, and give as little info about the Ukrainians as possible.
This map  >>/51682/ should be updated by the Sever Group of Forces.
He notes the Ukrainian desertions, talks about why the FPV drones are more important, and the limited role of the artillery. Drone hit rates by RUSI. Kursk (there was still Kursk), the wired drones, the various Russian advances. Some hard truths by Hegseth. Skepticism about DMZ and Euro peacekeepers. European future.
> the last 12 months were war of attrition
Indeed they were.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=IDRjughhXMg
https://youtube.com/watch?v=IDRjughhXMg

This was paired up with another video by Major Schmid, an eggsbert on Electronic Warfare. He gives a rundown of the bare minimum basics, and introduces Russian EW systems.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=6B6HRRByeIY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6B6HRRByeIY
Don't forget, Bernd, Computer Network Operations or Information Operations are not Electronic Warfare. I'm serious, important distinction.

Six days ago they released another classic Reisner. I still have to watch it. He talks about a new Russian offensive.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=TEJQ7I1jqLA
https://youtube.com/watch?v=TEJQ7I1jqLA

> devastating meat attacks
Colonel Reisner you are demoted...

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 >>/54309/
 >>/54310/
So from his most recent video, I find the mentioning of the second Ukrainian defensive line the most interesting. I draw it on the Deepstate map for better visibility. I'm trying to follow it zoomed in. The topographical map helps a lot, elevation is more apparent, like that line north of Izium, which they obviously follow.
Anyway. What is obvious, they are prepared to slowly give ground at least until they reach this line.
The north end starts at the reservoir on the Donetsk river, east of Kharkiv. They are willing to retreat way beyond the Oskil, and give up Sloviansk and Kramatorsk since it runs to the west of those, down to Dobropillia careful, as usual with some Ukrainian settlement names, this also has doppelgangers... along a chain of small lakes. From here it follows the terrain, the west bank of a stream (the Byk river), again on the high ground to Mezhova, which is a "larger" settlement in that region, I assume there forces can be concentrated somewhat. Then again follows a stream (the Vovcha river), on the west bank high ground, towards the region of Velyke Novosilka, NW from there quite a few villages are bunched up.
Interestingly there is nothing drawn on the Zaporozhia front, probably means that they expect the front to be static there. So if that moves then something really went bad.
What this map doesn't show, what's the expectation in Sumy.

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Heh.
I was checking Matt's (of WillyOAM) channel, no new update on the war, nothing about the Israeli strike on Iran, and the follow up back and forth. Nothing. I was liek wtf.
And now just noticed he had two livestreams, 8 and 3 hours in length yesterday. I might put them on as a background noise, but have no time to actually watch 'em.

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Watched some Israel vs Iran today.
I have a question.
If one of the sites actually had a nuclear explosion, would that mean that Israel used nuclear weapon against Iran and the Iranian people?
If they really were that close creating Da Bomb, surely there are some chance of this.
I did hear Israel doesn't have weapons that can penetrate those bunkers.
Also I'm not sure it would be great if Iran had nukes, but the djinn is out of the bottle not going back, it is likely that more countries will have them.

What if... Israel in reality does not have nuclear weapons...?
I remember a line from Defamation, by Abe Foxman, he says that there is a perception in the world that Jews/ADL have some level of power and influence, and people tend to overestimate this, so they play in this inflated false perception, so people turn to them to take care of things in that case Ukraine wanted the ADL to lobby for them at the US govt..
Spreading the suspicion, the "gossip", that Israel has nukes could be aligned with this.
It's like in Breaking Bad
> Jesse, look at me, you are a blow fish.

https://www.jurist.org/news/2025/06/eu-unveils-18th-sanction-package-against-russia/
> EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas said that the current EU sanctions on Russia have been working, citing that the nation has lost “billions in oil revenues” and that “its economy is shrinking and GDP has dropped.” She explained that the EU hopes to work with the United States and the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel.
> lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel.

 >>/54323/
The article mentions this:
https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/roadmap-fully-end-eu-dependency-russian-energy-2025-05-06_en
A plan to stop buying Russian energy sources. Orbán said this week the foreign ministers, and next week the PMs of EU countries discuss this plan, and we and probably some others will try to press for reconsideration, and stop it, especially in the light of recent events on the Middle East and their impact.
Oil and gas prices are expected to rise for the availability gets effected. The Houthis keep pressure on the lanes of the Red Sea, and around at the strait of Hormuz Iran can cause problems. Where would EU get her oil and gas? Norway can't produce enough, US can't ship enough. Supply gets reduced, but the demand just rises. Militarization and AI they call so many things "AI", it's just sloppy demands huege and risin amout of energy.
Europe is fucked properly.

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Here's the International Atomic Energy Agency's communication from three days ago, tho it says last update on the 16th (today).
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/statement-on-the-situation-in-iran-13-june-2025
They link a resolution from the 12th (pdf related) on Iran's safeguards obligations.
I'm quoting some parts of this 4 pages document:
Iran has failed to provide the co-operation required under its Safeguards Agreement, impeding Agency verification activities, sanitizing locations, and repeatedly failing to provide the Agency with technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at several undeclared locations in Iran or information on the current location(s) of nuclear material and/or of contaminated equipment, instead stating, inconsistent with the Agency’s findings, that it has declared all nuclear material and activities required under its Safeguards Agreement,
Iran did not declare nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three undeclared locations in Iran, specifically, Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad, and that, because of the lack of technically credible answers by Iran, the Agency is not in a position to determine whether the nuclear material at these undeclared locations in Iran has been consumed, mixed with other declared material, or is still outside of Safeguards,
Iran retained unknown nuclear material and/or heavily contaminated equipment, and other assets, arising from the former undeclared structured nuclear programme, at Turquzabad in the period 2009 until 2018, after which items were removed from the location, the whereabouts of which remain unknown
Iran’s failure to provide the Agency with design and preliminary design information regarding new and planned nuclear facilities, as required
Iran’s failure on numerous occasions to co-operate to facilitate the implementation of Safeguards, while pursuing activities consistent with concealment efforts, including extensive sanitization and the provision of inaccurate explanations,
There are more in there.

Will China start large scale war games, landing practices near Taiwan?
Keeping it extwitter short.

Also feels like spiderweb was a rehearsal for the Israeli attack, at least for a couple of drone strikes.

Hell no

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Applying the stuff from the politics thread I'm gonna try to speculate what can we expect from the US to do in the Israel-Iran conflict. What policy tools the use has?
Could treat it as hostile intervention:
1. coup d'état
2. punctuated military operations (raids by exile proxy forces)
3. aid to internal armed opposition forces (local guerillas)
4. large-scale combat
5. sustained and asymmetrical attacks (bombing campaign)
6. combat operations alongside local insurgent forces
7. invasion
As for large-scale combat and invasion, they could do it from Iraq and Pakistan with some landing operations from the seas, but that'd need concentrating forces in these places, and surely we'd get soem news about these. There are no internal or exile groups that could be used/supported.
This leaves strategic bombing. Politicians give the armed forces a target list which they'll go over with bombers, rockets and drones, and they'll try to level everything. Outcome is questionable. It did not work with North Vietnam, and achievement of Kosovo's not really independence had several factors and can't really measure the impact of the bombing.
Shouldn't forget that the first three tools are covert and the rest overt. The US acts covertly when they want plausible deniability for the enemy has international recognition. The IAEA report and the Israeli claims about the nukes can give the US enough legitimacy to act overtly. Especially since this picrel - if it is how that twitter account says, that was a mistake by Iran. Huge mistake.
I wonder if we could consider Israel a proxy force, since their men are within Iran, executing various operations, drone strikes and whatnot, expanding the number of potential policy tools.

On the other hand we could approach from maintenance intervention angle.
In this case the US would intervene not against Iran, but on behalf of Israel. Problem with this: intervention is about taking over some function from the regime to keep the regime "alive". What could take over the US in this case? The military? And with Israel, it's always more like the tail wags the dog situation. Neeway.
As a summary maintenance intervention tools can be fit in these five categories.
1. emergency economic aid, mostly in the form of emergency loans and advice;
2. emergency covert political aid, mostly in the form of propaganda, material assistance to political parties, and encouragement of coups and insurrections;
3. emergency military aid;
4. U.S. ground troops;
5. proxy military forces (perhaps aided by U.S. air power).
Lots of actual maintenance intervention situations which don't fit, like jettisoning the president (in this case PM), or "Incompetent clients: basket cases". But let's list and see.
Emergency economic assistance.
I'm sure the US does that. Although Israel is rich, moar money can never hurt. Some monetary support surely on its way.
Emergency covert political assistance
Now losing the regime in some political way like via election isn't possible since whoever would came to power, Israel would still be a client to the US. On the other hand keeping Netanyahu in power would ensure that no moderate, dove-ish government could step back from this thrashing they are trying to give they are giving to Iran.
Jettisoning the president and Losing the client
No.
Emergency military aid and advisers
This is possible. Giving everything but ground combat troops. Do bombers count as advisors? 
Now when combat troops are involved see these  >>/54272/ ain't much fits. This would need Israel to be in ground combat.
The rest is when the US stops the intervention, and when they have to intervene against the leader to keep the regime. The situations just don't fit.

 >>/54335/
Strategic bombing campaigns are initiated by the US to pressure enemy regime to do something: withdraw from a place or stop a campaign. It is never done to overthrow the government. Milosevic was toppled a year after by the bulldozer revolution which can be considered as a color revolution and the Serbian army stance of not to defend him if anything happens.
Now what I'm hearing related to Iran, that only the US has the bunker buster munitions, and I'm getting the impression that this could be a one strike against certain targets to destroy nuclear capabilities Iran supposedly have. This reminds me more like the strike against Libya of 1986.
By the time Reagan was inaugurated in 1981 Libya was viewed as an enemy by Washington, infallible USian intel services claimed they wanted nukes. They started to support Chad rebel forces in areas Qadaffi's forces occupied. Then punctuated military operations were propped up from 1985. After these proved to be failures the US govt was itching for an excuse to finally act overtly end send their own military into action, but Libya wasn't a pariah state,
Then on April 5 of 1986 a club back then called a discotechque was bombed in Berlin, with a pack of Americans inside. Infallible USian intel services claimed it was Libya, and ten days after the attack the US initiated airstikes against two targets, Qaddaffi's tent and house essentially this was an assassination attempt, killing some civilians (among them kids). They put it down as great success, and that they sent a message.
Da book puts this action into the "Combat operations alongside local insurgent forces" category.

> Israel has to win but Iran only needs to survive
What is a win for Israel? They say their goal is to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities (weapons and/or the means to produce those not actually clear)
How does we know that Iran has nukes?
Israel said so.
How will we know Iran's nuke capabilities are destroyed?
Israel will says so.
Unless there is some serious proofs, or some kind of event in the future, Israel can just say anytime they won, they destroyed everything.

Beyond this the US can intervene, bomb some sites and then claim everything is destroyed, and declare it as a win.

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https://news.usni.org/2025/06/16/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-june-16-2025
News from three days ago, Washington sends the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East.
Then UK govt offered Washington to help out (I think this is yesterday's news).
Today HMS Queen Elizabeth is sailing through the Suez Canal. I'm not sure where were they previously, but surely they were on their way for a couple of days now.
At Arabia the USS Carl Vinson is cruising, so essentially three aircraft carriers will be grouped around there. Sounds like the firepower.

I wonder if there is a live tracker site for these.
I think there is a flight radar type of site for ships somewhere.

 >>/54340/
Wait. I don't think there is info where Queen Lizzy is heading. To the Med or to the Red.
Judging by the media above it's heading north...???
The shadows point to north..., no???

Found a bunch of ship trackers but they all use the same, this: https://www.kpler.com
And they don't show military vessels.

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https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/nato-navy-warships/United%20Kingdom
https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/vessels/HMS-Queen-Elizabeth-(R08)/CURRENT-POSITION/4907892/232002833
> vessel is out of range
Have it sailed to another planet?

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Meanwhile according to this the Vinson was at Borneo 133 days ago. Now? Who knows.
Frankly I don't get this secrecy, there bound to be open source info on this giant monster of a ships. Beyond this does governments think that other governments doesn't have tech to check on their shit? Like 100% Russia and China knows where all the vessels of any navy of the Earth are, and I suspect Iran can get info on at least the aircraft carriers.
But ordinary people are the danger.
Can a UK citizen - who is essentially the employer of all governmental workers from the PM to the sailors on the Queen Elizabeth - can access this data? Can he know? Does he allowed to know? No he can't he is endangering the whole thing. Mr Smith will run to the Ayatollah blabbing about it.

When Trump says he wants unconditional surrender from Iran what does he mean? Surrender to whom? To Trump? Is currently Iran in the state of war with the US?

NATO summit next week, 24-25th
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/235800.htm
Page loads like dogshit.

Here's Putin's most recent press conference.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=ak-iHhCaaJ4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ak-iHhCaaJ4
He says the usual things. Kosovo, Istanbul 2022 and such.
However towards the end it becomes very interesting. He leans back and he looks all honest like he drops the facade. He says that all of these foreign journalists there and all their governments and all their men in Ukraine knows what's going on in Ukraine. He says the staffing of Ukrainian units is below 50% and that Kiev decided to mobilize  the youngest age brackets down to 18 years old. I did not hear about this, I wonder if any news is out.

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Well the US bombed three Iranian sites during the night. It could have been sometiems around 3am in Iran or something. Trump beat Reagan by one day (see Libya here:  >>/54337/) I'm sure it was a great success and they sent a message.

I have a new theory beyond the strong Israeli lobby in Washington, and that US always backs Israel why this is happened.
Trump was elected with the promise one of the promises he makes peace in Ukraine. They had to show he is strong in foreign politics, to get the impression he can put pressure on those who matter in the question of ending the war Putin.
First they started to send foreign criminals back to their home country. Noone wanted to take so they picked Colombia and they bullied them into submission. I'm sure everyone was impressed by the strength Trump showed. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgly1we7gx4o
Considering that Colombia is a US client some Putin might not have been too impressed.
They went on making peace in Ukraine, and they leaned on Zelensky hard your disrespecting muh authoritay!!!! and offered him a way forward with the rare earth deal. Kiev turned and they started to talk about negotiating with Russia.
Suddenly crisis in Kashmir. Some terrorist group kills some Indian civilians. Have to strike back but they are hiding in Pakistan! What will happen NUCLEAR WAR ON OUR HAND OH GOD SAVE US ALL!!! Trump visited them both. Considering Pakistan is a US client, they stuff them with weapons and money all the time as they did recently too  >>/54259/ (I think the deal was made in February https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/25/trump-us-pakistan-funding-foreign-aid/ the whole article is paywalled).
Anyway Indian planes took off, shot some rockets against ground targets, Pakistani planes took off shot some rockets against Indian planes. Both side claimed victory, Trump claimed it's all for his great mediation.

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Now dressed in the nimbus of the peacemaker Trump had a chat with Putin, and the first meeting was done and the negotiations started. However this ain't going well. In fact it probably goes nowhere since what they offered to Moscow is just not enough and the Kremlin could very well think they can push the AFU into collapse, and make whatever peace they want.
Trump can pressure Zelensky since Ukraine's whole resistance depends on US help, but no pressuring Putin.
So now that Trump showed he is a great negotiator, deal- and peacemaker, he has to show the Lion also has claws and teeth. Even if there is no stick to hit Russia with, they can show US has sticks on her own.
Oh shit is the Israeli bombing campaign called Operation Rising Lion? I like the kohnincidence. Neeway.
So know the US throwing bombs. It's spectacular success everyone is very pleased teamwork never seen better wonderful job. God Bless.
Probably main message: we have weapons noone else has. US puffs himself up, showing they are the biggest boy still in the classroom.

Oh one thing I forgot. Trump (and Rubio) also made peace in Africa. Between Rwanda and Doctor Congo.
Well he surely won't get Nobel Peace Prize for the bombs now. But who know Obama got it for starting wars and shit.

So I think this whole crisis is a good excuse for the US to show force, and this is one more reason this strike had to happen.

Question is if they really could destroy the site? Fordow that is. I'm hearing it's 90 meters deep in rock, and the bunker busters only good for 60 in concrete (which is more punch-through-able than rock)
I read they destroyed the entrances. Trapping everyone under there they are good as dead. On the other hand with time the place can be excavated and save the stuff that was buried.
Everyone is waiting what Iran will do.
Now a general gives report live in the Pentagon.

> Trump authorized precision operation
So for now it was just one strike. I assume a strategic bombing campaign will follow if Iran "retaliates" whatever this means. Perhaps another missile salvo on Israel, perhaps against American targets.

What happens if Iran closes the strait of Hormus? Oil price goes up.
USA is happy
Russia is happy
Europe is fucked