/kc/ - Krautchan

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Nouh my GOD IT'S HABBENING!!!
Check that corner they supposedly reached the canal on the ridge!
Also what the fuck with that repelled attack in the middle of the red zone?

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This might be relevant at one point. Nuclear power plants.
Ukraine has four (plus one):
- Zaporozhya (occupied by Russia now)
- South Ukraine close to Moldova
- Khmelnitsky in Western Ukraine
- Rivne also in Western Ukraine closer to Polan
+1 Chernobyl.
The largest by far is Zaporozhia, probably larger than the rest combined.

Russia has Kursk NPP relatively close to Ukraine. It's a large power plant, with 3 working reactors (2-4). They built a 5th, but stopped before finishing. There is a plan for a Kursk II, but I dunno how that stands.

In one of the latest WillyOAM video, he cites Ukrainian source that suggest they might be capable of gaining ground in Russia proper, and use the gains as a bargaining chip to get clay back. He expressed his doubts stating the Western weapons came with restrictions, they mustn't be used in Russia proper.
Could Ukros mean, they perhaps has a plan to capture Kursk, with the nearby NPP (it's at a village west from the city) and use that as a leverage?
Also NPPs could come up in different topics related to the war.

 >>/50171/
I think it would be silly for Ukraine to attack Russia. Russia still has not used much of it's mobilised forces it seems so they might easily be able to defend Russia or be in Russia already. But even if they did attack and take ground that just escalates the war and would cause Russia to mobilise fully.

The Russians are quite close to taking Bahkmut now, there really is not much left.

The Ukrainians are going to have to leave it or counter attack soon.

 >>/50172/
Maybe not cause to mobilize, but surely give a good excuse for that.

 >>/50182/
When does it count as "taken"? 51% or 100% or inbetween somewhere? Because some might consider it taken already.
> counter attack
I'm very looking forward to see how they will conduct offensive warfare against fortified and well manned positions. It is a very different genre from what they did until now. Supposedly the troops trained in the west like Bri'un were prepared for this.

Wagner troops started to use 30 mm autocannons as team operated ("crew served") weapon, liek a normal machinegun or a mortar. Gonna try to get a video. Maybe /polru/ already has one. But perhaps not.

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Couple days ago I saw this video (vidrel #1) appearing with comments that
> we were lied to, they said they destroy Russian army, and they don't, they weren't even scratched, we should stop supporting the war because its useless
This slice of the full footage is really taken out of context. But anyway made me look into this video here:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=B02ASaskWTQ
https://youtube.com/watch?v=B02ASaskWTQ

They have these chats every now and then. This is the U.S. House Armed Services Committee I believe. I have not listened the whole thing yet, just listened in here and there.
I found Mr. Smith's intro quite interesting (vidrel #2). What I hear from what he says, that:
this war was a great opportunity to get the insubordinate allied countries in line, that stupid Macron now don't talk such bullshit, everyone sees how Russia is a threat to the US erhm I mean to Europe, and now we have to make them understand that China is a threat to the US erhm I mean to Europe
And then what Dr. Wallander and Mrs. Kiggans talk about (vidrel #3) Europe-China relations, and how Europe (that pesky Macron again) does not understand they endanger themselves.
It's not like I don't agree that Russia or China wishes to exert control over others, but Europe does the same, and the US coerces Europe the same. Russia and China is very far from ruling over Europe, while the US holds the leash since 1945, and right now they have firmer grip than ever since the Cold War ended.
As EU citizen I believe we shouldn't be controlled any of these states, and mustn't let them bully us. In fact the other way around we should control those and bully them. There are problems with these ofc and limits. There is Realpolitik.
I also understand the view of these senators and senatorettes for why they speak how they speak and why they do what they do. Expecting them doing differently would be a folly.
Also Taiwan owns 60% of the world's CPU production, if China could annex the island, they were producing about 75%! Now that could be a potential problem for the rest of the world, especially those who are addicted to and depended on informational technology.

Mr Prigozhin said he will pull Wagner out of Bahkmut on the 10th of May to lick their wounds. It's a continuation of the artillery ammunition drama.

> “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is my fucking ammunition?” an angry Prigozhin said in the video.

> “They came here as volunteers and they are dying so you can get fat in your wood-panelled offices,” he said, standing by rows of bodies in military uniform.

> “These guys are from Wagner. They died today. Their blood is still fresh,” he said, adding that army chiefs “will go to hell” for not sending ammunition.

> “We have an ammunition shortage of 70 percent,” he said in his tirade, in which several expletives were bleeped out.

> “You sit in your (bleeped) expensive clubs. Your children are full of life and film themselves in videos on YouTube.”

> “You think you are the masters of life and you have the right to decide on their lives,” he said, pointing at the bodies.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/05/05/wagner-bakhmut-ammo-shortage/

Mr Prigozhin is a colourful and outspoken chap. He often voices his grievances with the Russian army which is interesting and it shows that he is politically well protected. You would think somebody would shut him up considering the kind of things he keeps saying and the fact that he has his own personal army as well, he really does seem like a direct threat to the Russian leadership, but maybe that's in Mr Putin's interest and he is going to use Mr Prigozhin to quell internal issues after the war.

Or maybe Mr Prigozhin is just dumb or emotional, I do wonder how much of a psychological difference there is between what he is doing and what a standard General does, given that Wagner is his company and he is the one hiring and managing these people and in a sense they are all his people.

But then we don't know what behind the scenes factors are involved either, it could be that this withdrawal was planned all along and is just a standard rotation but Mr Prigozhin decided he would seek political gain from it by creating drama and making it seem like he has been forced to leave due to a lack of support.

 >>/50193/
This is how I think it is.
Prigozhin is part of the establishment, Putin is dying, someone needs to step in, but Medvedev is an utter tool, so now they create a folk hero from Prigozhin, and he will inherit the crown. He can shit freely on the apparatchiks because he'll be their boss anyway.
I have no idea how right or wrong this hunch of mine is.

I think the major factor that hampers the Russian advance is the same what stalls the Ukrainian "spring" (counter-)offensive. The mud.

Syria is part of the Arab League again. Assad can attend their next summit with full rights on May 19th, held in Saudi Arabia.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/7/arab-league-agrees-to-bring-syria-back-into-its-fold
Situation gets interesting. Iran and Saudi Arabia also normalizing their relationship (there was some Chinese mediation they met in Beijing). Syria made long-term trade deal. The US says fuck you to Assad still.
Will the US find a way (or generate an opportunity) to solidify her grip on Saudi Arabia and kick the dog back to the fold (as they did with Europe using this war)?

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This looks uncomfortable.

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Ukraine repeatedly stated they aren't willing to talk peace as long as an centimeter is hold by Russia. Full Donbass, full Crimea.
In fact NATO countries and US buddies against acknowledging even just Crimea being part of Russia.
So, really, there is no other way to peace than ramping up the war effort, more money, more weapons to Ukraine, more training, more advising, more intel. If we don't do all this and more, the war will take forever.
And indeed from statements of western politicians and articles if mainstream media it comes off that supporting the war is supporting the peace, and condemning the war or demanding peace is actually supporting the war.

Peace, peace never changes.

 >>/50209/
It's all just rhetoric.

If Ukraine were to say that it would accept Russia taking their land then they are essentially admitting that they don't think they can win. So of course they won't say that.

Likewise, if Russia says it's not prepared for peace talks then it looks like they are after more land and want more than just peace on their terms, so they won't say that either.

 >>/50210/
Russia says nothing about goals, and what they would consider as a baseline for peace talks. Well there are certain things that had been said by certain people (like Prigozhin) but no official statements. For the exact reason what you wrote.
But Ukraine - on all levels and the Western supporters too - is very vocal about what they want. It is a very different situation with them because of that. They don't just shut up, or just say they have to fight against the invaders. They are loud and clear about goals. And this can have grave and long lasting consequences if they don't accomplish that goal. Yeah, there would be enormous amount of cope like how they did with Mariupol (the defenders were "evacuated"...), and it would be pushed everywhere, but it would sour many, many Ukrainians, and in the supporting countries lot of people would reconsider their views, might be even governments and could lead to deteriorating in international relationships, with the US for example.

Furthermore on the basis of this rhetoric they bully nations to sponsor the war (because it's not supporting anymore), and based on this rhetoric some politicians want to introduce sanctions against Hungary for example.

Thinking further.
This same rhetoric causes extreme emotional reactions in people. And the more people are with heightened emotions the more chance that some will act out on it.
For example all this jackin' with the BLM and the trannies made Westerner antifas (German or Italian) to come to Hungary, and randomly beat up people based on their choice of fashion (they beat up some hunters as they wore military style clothing).
What could happen in the future after the war? Let's say Ukraine can't reach these objectives, and had to end the war with concessions. What could disappointed, traumatized, and armed Ukrainian soldiers do when they look for someone to blame for the "failure" (which in reality would be an a giant success story, they just wouldn't see it)?

 >>/50212/
I don't think they will blame anyone, I think many of them will just be happy that it's over but that depends on how the war ends. If Ukraine lost a large amount of land yet was allowed to join the EU then I could see them spinning that as a win and I think many Ukrainians would be happy about it as their economic situation would improve, also the west might rebuild and invest in Ukraine which would further help them.

And if Russia takes the whole country then none of what the average Ukrainian thinks matters anyway as it will just be like East Germany.

 >>/50214/
> that depends on how the war ends
We are not talking about any other scenario than not gaining back every cm. Sure it can end otherwise but that is not the topic what I raised. There are worse scenarios too. What if US loses interest or something more urgent comes up and stop supporting Ukraine?
> I don't think they will blame anyone
They will. This is how it works. Do you remember Hitler and ze Nazis?
> many of them will just be happy
Sure. Many won't. Many will feel betrayed.
Ukrainians not over-domesticated westerners. They are not even central eastern euros.
> their economic situation would improve
Noone cares about higher pays, home appliances, and comfort. Everyone always dissatisfied. This is true to the west but especially to the sovok.

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IT'S HABBENING!

 >>/50216/
Maybe, they have taken some land back but it might just be a local counter offensive.

Prigozhin is having a fit but as mentioned before we don;t really know if that means anything serious or if he is playing political games.

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 >>/50217/
Prigo has a different media handling tactic than Kadyrov.

Kadyrov also stated he wishes to set up a PMC after his mandate as official ends. And there are others, the Gazprom has the Potok, and there's one called Patriot I think, which has close ties to Shoigu. And god knows what else. All these feudal lords creating their own armed gangs personal retinue, I bet we'll see some showdowns after Putin is gone.
Also just question of time when they'll get used against civilians, journalists, political opposition, market competitors, and their deeds covered by the state.
And just a question of time Hungary will be the same. Last year or the year before I think I wrote here a new Hungarian PMC, about 3000 people strong. They were recruiting operators with very good pay (for Hungarian levels).

Not that they don't have armed to the teeth mafias already, it's just the next level of mobsterity with tanks, artillery, and own air force.

 >>/50218/
I've heard about some of these but I wonder how large they can actually get. There doesn't seem to be a large amount of recruits for them to draw on, Wagner already had to resort to convicts.

Kind of related, I was watching an interview with Simon Mann from Executive Outcomes and he said that they were quite lucky in that it was just the right time to make a PMC group, the Apathied Government had just collapsed so their were a lot of white South African soldiers looking for work. He said he would talk to SAS guys(Simon Mann used to be in the SAS) and they would complain and ask him why he didn't hire them instead and he would say it's because they would not do it, they would not be willing to come over there or do do the dangerous work that needed to be done.

I think that there probably actually aren't many 1st worlders who would fight in a real PMC(not just private security but actually fighting wars), Russia isn't first world but I think that still applies to a degree.

 >>/50220/
Russia is primitive sovok heda, they have enough brutes and thugs. Plus inside the country, Siberia there aren't much opportunities, and a pay in a tchvk could be a big draw. They are also insensitive savages. Russian companies can probably draw on Central Asians, from the *stans too.
Westerners are soft.
Machiavelli already wrote half a millennia ago that mercs are shit, and only good in making you poor. They don't want the danger they want to live from the money they earn. Right now they have a good reputation of being efficient, but this is just a relative worth, since the rest of the soldiers and armies are so shit.

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Red patches are missing that were earlier there. So something is happening.

Compare to this:  >>/50153/

 >>/50224/
Something is happening but I'm not sure what yet.

This could just be a local counter offensive, it could be a local counter offensive used to divert the Russians from their real offensive that will head through Zapro, or this could even be their real offensive and they are not going to go for Zapro. The goal of the offensive might just be to save Bahkmut, though that would imply that they felt they did not have the resources for a proper offensive, as you would think Zapro would be a much more enticing target than just delaying the capture of Bahkmut.

 >>/50221/
Following up the thought about Machiavelli. He also noted mercenaries will try to take over the power if the opportunity arise. In Russia this can be a problem. Wagner is several thousand strong (what were the numbers? 50K?), and Prigozhin is getting those media laurels, which makes him known, and maybe even popular. In the US this is not a problem merc companies (Blackwater and derivatives) are kept quiet, and while they can do important services, they are just a drop in the sea of foreign relations and military actions. Or at least the media doesn't draw such attention.

 >>/50226/
I suspect that is the path of least resistance. Where the enemy conducts offensive operations they can't really dig in.
I dunno how large are the forces of Ukraine which can be used for serious assaults (unlike what the Kharkov and Kherson offensives were) against strong enemy groupings, but I again suspect they are only those who were trained in various European countries like UK, which means some 10 thousands (20? 40?).

 >>/50227/
Now that Ukrainians gained land, and Russians withdrew situation also changes because Ukrainian troops are now in an area where they don't have heavily fortified positions, which means it's easier to struck on them.

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Watched WillyOAM and Historylegends videos to get more info.
Apparently north of Khromove and the road Russian forces were made run and gave up 2 kms depth. And in the south too S, SW of Ivanivske they gave up lot of grounds.
Well the rest... WillyOAM is too tight lipped, seems doesn't go after the information (he also says stuff like "Ukrainians holding the town center in Bakhmut", is that the town center?)
Historylegends brings more info, more colorful, but he is too ready to fill in the blanks with stuff he made up.
Okay won't be too hard on either, these are just youtube channels.

 >>/50215/
> What if US loses interest or something more urgent comes up and stop supporting Ukraine?
At some point they'll think Russia is contained enough and shift priority to building up forces in the Far East.

 >>/50230/
The containment needs to be kept up. Ukraine can't from her own strength.
And by Far East you mean of question of Taiwan. And Korea.

There are western intelligence reports that Prigozhin has been giving information on Russian troop locations to the Ukrainians to stop them hitting his own forces and also another one saying Putin intends to arrest Prigozhin for treason.

I'm not sure how true this is, it seems like they are trying to create a fissure between Wagner and the Russian army and undermine the Russian war effort as a whole as Wagner is pretty popular amongst pro-Russians online at least.

I think if Putin wanted to remove Prigozhin he would do it in the same way that Hitler got rid of Rommel, he would kill him in secret and them make him a war hero.

 >>/50233/
Soap opera.

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Looks like Bakhmut is very nearly cleared now. I would not be surprised if the Ukrainians withdrew at any moment, though I would equally not be surprised if they held on as long as they could.

This is today's Wagner map. Though there is some controversy here as well. As you can see, it shows that the Ukrainians took back a bit of land in the far north but the Russian Army disputes this and says it's not true. The VDV has been sent to support the flanks but Prigozhin says it's not enough.

Something else that has occurred to me regarding this counter attack is that it's possible that they know they are about to lose Bakhmut and the aim is actually to push the Russians back from the road so as to give the Ukrainians in Bakhmut more space to retreat when the time comes. Other wise they might be worried about the Russians hammering everything trying to leave.

 >>/50262/
> push the Russians back from the road so as to give the Ukrainians in Bakhmut more space to retreat
Sounds like a fair guess.
My onion is that rest of Bakhmut will be taken and the front will solidify along the ridge held by Ukraine, where they can sit comfortably and hammer advancing Russians.

AFU retreated from Bakhmut. Liveuamap still not updated.

And yes, US said they'll give fighter jets, including F-16s to Ukraine and train pilots too.
Which means they already training those pilots for months now.

> “Between January 1 and May 19, 117,400 people have been accepted into the ranks of the armed forces on a contractual basis and as part of our voluntary formations,” Medvedev said.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/05/20/russia-recruited-troops-2023/

In December Shoigu said they were planning to increase the size of the army to 1.5 million.

However this 117,000 figure does not count for casualties nor does it count for the number of soldiers whose contracts would have expired and who would have left the army or who left the army for other reasons. I don't know how many soldiers would have needed to be replaced from these. So we don't know how much this has actually increased their army size by.

 >>/50266/
They won't make it for the coming offensive and I'm not sure how much good they will do when they arrive anyway. But I guess that depends on how many they can get which we don't know yet.

 >>/50267/
So typical how they obscure things. We aren't even allowed know how many people were actually gathered by the mobilization in September. Not even ballpark number. And I don't mean the Russians don't tell it, but the Western officials and media don't talk about it. They say 300K was the target, then never say if they reached any (and it's 100% they have their ways to get the number), but direct the light on the fleeing tens of thousands.
We don't know how long those reservists can be in service. The contracted soldiers have 6 month, but are those like that? It seems this new batch is contract ones.

> not sure how much good they will do when they arrive anyway
Yeah.
At least more Raptors and whatnot has to be produced for NATO countries have to buff their air forces.

Meanwhile I read in Hungarian news, that while Prigozhin told they took the rest of Bakhmut, Ukrainian sources assured us they took back Bakhmut since then. How they worded, it implied Ukrainians now holding the whole settlement. I would think they write like this to sway the readers, but from the whole texts (these aren't even articles) I can tell they are so dilettantes (women writing these stuff as well). These snippets really reassure me I do it right I don't read their stuff as a general rule.

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I tried to gather all the ways how Hungary not helping the Ukraine. The list below is true as of 2022. December 31:
- over 1 million refugees let in/through the country;
- 80 million dollars were sent;
- supporting Ukraine's EU membership;
- voting Yes on EU sanctions against Russia;
- voting Yes on EU monetary help to Ukraine;
- Hungary offered her €18 billion share of EU gibsmedats;
- ensuring Ukraine can export her grain, allowing transit;
- financed rebuilding of a kindergarten;
- Hungarian caritative organizations constantly sending aid;
Hungary might have done, but no real info besides some gossip:
- training Ukrainian soldiers
What Hungary actually did not do:
- send weapons directly to Ukraine
- occupy Kárpátalja

After all these misdeeds no wonder Ukies are so battxepted.

There are some caveats:
- as for the EU monetary help we were against the financing plan, that it would be taken as common loan (someting liek);
- in April this year our govt. put stop on the import of Ukrainian grain - this is about buying grain from Ukraine, it does not stop the transit to other Ukrainian customers.

Oh wow Russians finally took Bakhmut. I was beginning to think they'll never do that.

 >>/50273/
If they keep going at this rate Putin will die of old age before they get to Kiev...

 >>/50273/
They did not. Apparently still some fighting is going on in the very edge of the town and at the mig statue or whatever.

 >>/50276/
Ah true, there is apparently this one strip of land left.

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Oy vey.

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Found this in HistoryLegends video. He does not mention where he gets this. I assume at least partially he used militaryland's deployment map. If I were him I also have my own notes gathered during the whole length of the battle from anywhere basically, all the tidbits appearing in whatever news, be it a telegram channel or a large news site. But are there other sources, at least one that gives an approximate list like militaryland?

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Do Bernd remember the news about the Northern Hungarian officials claiming Hungary trains Ukrainian soldiers? Here:  >>/49918/
Now there are stronger voices in the media about Sweden giving Gripen's to Ukraine. They have several advantages, they are small, fine with short runways, ain't worse then the rest (they fared well in some exercise in 2006), can be used in couple of roles. The Swedes also curious about if they could match what the Russians have.
https://min.news/en/military/a409faa4bc530b328f75ed6ccff23b7e.html
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04/23/ukraines-top-guns-need-new-jets-to-win-the-war
Another notable point: Hungary has these.
And these days we also train our astronauts on them:
https://index.hu/belfold/2023/05/24/hunor-program-urhajosjeloltek-urhajos-nemzetkozi-urallomas-kapu-tibor-schlegl-adam-cserenyi-gyula-szakaly-andras/
Do we train some Ukrainian "astronauts" as well perhaps?

 >>/50292/
Also great quote from first article:
> Sweden's main purpose is to provide Ukraine with fighter jets for battlefield combat testing and to drag Russia into a protracted war.
They know Ukraine can't win. They don't want Ukraine win. They want the war the drag on, they just try to tire out Russia, like in Afghanistan. The 12 million Afghan payed dearly. But it was chiefly an asymmetric war. This one in Ukraine is a straight up meatgrinder. Casualties on Ukrainian side is highly downplayed, we speculated about this occasionally. And it's not just about the dead - both military and civilian. It's about the maimed, and all who fled the country too.

 >>/50293/
This is what this whole war is about. 
The US, after being bogged down for decades in failed wars, they decided its a better strategy to get their competitors trapped in costly wars. So now they are using ukrainians as usefull idiots/cannon fodder against russia. The same reason the US is constantly provoking China.

 >>/50294/
This is an utterly silly observation.
Plus the US is doing good what she's doing from her own viewpoint.