/kc/ - Krautchan

Russians are constantly shelling New York. Joe Biden wake up, you're under attack.

The LPR, DPR and Kherson are going to be holding referendums on joining the Russian federation from the 23-27th of September. This could enable Russia to escalate the war.

 >>/48766/
> Joe Biden wake up
Futile.

 >>/48767/
Just the right time.
Not sure about the moral of the troops they can gain. Some military age young men must be enthusiastic about it (nothing wrong with this either), but they don't represent their generation.

Zaprozhia Oblast is joining this referendum event too now. But, that's even more dubious because they don't even hold Zaprozhia the city yet so presumably they would not hold the majority of the population.

 >>/48768/
I don't think their are any issues with moral on either side and I think the moral aspect has been over emphasised in this war by the west in particular. They say that Ukraine will win the war simply because they are defending their homes and somehow that means they will win but history really does not reflect this. So long as soldiers are part of a cohesive and organised unit then they will fight.
It depends on how they decide to escalate. They might simply keep the war the same but start arming and training the militia groups as if they are part of the Russian army and mobilising more men within the region or they might go for a minimal mobilisation of conscripts of the Russian army.

As this went unnoticed, here's a map of the specks of land Azerbaijan got across the Armenian border a few days ago. I wonder if they'll conquer a land connection to their enclave (and Turkey) when they have the chance.

This came earlier with couple of days.
So basically they doubling the amount of soldiers they have.
Until they get their training months will pass. However they could direct fresh troops there from other parts of Russia during that time.

Now Western bureaucrats bleeting the mantra, that "it is an escalation" and "the war will threats Europe" etc. So they are deebly goncerned their pals in the military industrial complex will earn a lot of money.

 >>/48772/
Putin announced a mobilisation of people with relevant experience and reservists and said they would be trained first.
Following this Shoigu went into more detail. He said they plan to mobilise 300,000 people, they will not mobilise students and refusing mobilisation will be punishable by up to 10 years in prison.
So yes, that doubles the amount of troops they have, however, Shoigu also said that conscripts would not be sent into combat which is curious. This means that either they are going to build this force up and then recruit volunteers from there to send to the front, or this force is not intended to be involved in the war at all but is meant to free up other soldiers and be used to stare off with the west.
Either way, I agree, this probably won't effect the war much for months.

 >>/48773/
Will it is a concern. If Russia had fought a quick war and finished it by now the Russian army would have stayed the size it was and at most it would be that 170,000-190,000 strong force sitting on Europe's borders, which is scary but not actually dangerous. Now, they are going to be looking at a Russia with that and more sitting on their borders. But then I really don't know what they expected, of course something like this was going to happen if the war dragged on too long.

I wonder who owns the Ukrainian armament factories.

 >>/48774/
This also means NATO will raise military spending more, from the current (recently raised) 2% of GDP.
Which means less money for schools and healthcare for us. And right now it is scandalous what's going on in Hungarian education. Teachers, students demonstrating all over, while we have shortage of teachers (at some places volunteer parents go in to teach), no money to heat the buildings, etc.

Azerbaijan military is putting field signs on vehicles now. We now what that means...

There has been a prisoner swap negotiated with the help of the Saudi crown prince of all people.
10 Foreighn fighters were releases including the Moroccan and two Brits that were caught in Mariupol, a number of other soldiers from that were released including some of the commanders.
The Russians got back some soldiers and officers as well and they also got the Oligarch they wanted. 
Well it looks like all is well that ends well.

 >>/48777/
That A hes a banor?

 >>/48778/
Yeah. Back to the front.
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=IYaRQKF0mpk
https://youtube.com/watch?v=IYaRQKF0mpk

Military History Visualized channel uploaded couple of Ukraine tank situation related videos, they aren't too fresh:
1.
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=FYmwfC99eek
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FYmwfC99eek
2.
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=SqoGKEMrTu0
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SqoGKEMrTu0
3. (this one I have not watched yet)
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=VxNFXIur5Co
https://youtube.com/watch?v=VxNFXIur5Co

 >>/48782/
So the first video is about the tanks on the Ukraine and the Ukrainian officers observations.
The second video concludes that sending Leopard 2-s onto the Ukraine might not be the best idea, they can be more bother than worth and even can turn out to be entirely useless (some commenters pointed out that they still could replace the T series tanks in places without fighting but need tank cover for whatever reason, so those can be moved to active duty; which might be a good idea but means the Leos won't see any combat). The opinion of the Ukro officers in the first vid confirms this one.
In the third the bloke goes through a Bundeswehr evaluation from the '90s which compares the the T-72 and the Leo 1. The report was made for politicians who had to decide what to do about the tanks they inherited from the DDR. Interesting insights in the very end of he video.
These three are cool, offers other considerations, many and all round considerations about the armour warfare related to current conflict.

 >>/48783/
I remember I saw the second two some while ago. I like that this guy uses primary sources and a lot of his content is that, but when he adds his own arguments and opinions they can be silly.
It would make sense that the Germans would pick the Leopard 1 over the T-72 seeing as they would have designed the Leopard 1 to fit their requirements in the first place. But this gives an insight into what they value and why they made the Leopard 1 like that and it seems they wanted good situational awareness to react and adapt to the situation and good mobility.

A BTR opened up on a line of M113s and apparently destroyed 6 of them(hard to see in this video there is a lot of smoke). This was to be expected...

Russian annexation of the liberated provinces will probably happen for real, the referendums have already taken place. Proofs:
https://www.rt.com/russia/563558-donbass-joining-procedure-steps/

Russia is losing in Lyman and has already given Ukraine another bridgehead around Kupyansk. In Kherson they can hold off the pressure better, but did not reverse the Ukrainian offensive and have lost a bit more ground.

 >>/48829/
I think the partial mobilization is a reaction to deeper problems. They probably are one step behind. I expect them to act in haste and make some mistakes which we'll might see.

 >>/48829/
It's hard to say what is happening in Lyman. They are not pulling out like in Izium even though they are in danger of being encircled. They are losing ground in places but will this be allowed and is this part of some other plan? I don't know, we will have to wait and see if Lyman falls or not.

As for Kherson, it's the same as it has been and in fact the Ukrainians have actually been pushed back a bit. As seen in this map compared to this map  >>/48747/

 >>/48832/
The Partial mobilisation was done in conjunction with the referendums which had been talked about for a while now. They were always going to go together as once the Donbass enters Russia the nature of the war changes.

 >>/48833/
> They are not pulling out like in Izium
They pulled out from Izium because they had to.
And the referendums are reactions are deeper problems. What foothold they established it's slipping out from their hands. They need to move more troops in (need that mobilization), but they only can if they can justify it (changing the occupied territories to their own territories with the referendums).
Russians lost the initiative, the control of the events in Ukraine.

 >>/48834/
Yes, they withdrew from Izium to avoid being encircled. But they are in danger of being encircled In Lyman if they are not operationally encircled already. It's probably too late for them to pull out from Lyman now as well, they have allowed this. As the Rybar map  >>/48829/ shows, the only remaining road network they have is through Zarichne which is very close to the front now. However, the road leading to the river from Kolodydyazi does actually run-through to a small road over a dam and then to Terny, so that may enable some resupply, but that is at risk as well.

They were planing the referendums for a long time and they had said before these offensives that they were going to happen at about this time. I think the two are unrelated. Remember, any mobilised reserves are not going to reach the front for months anyway and the Russians would have known about the troop build-ups for these offensives and would have an idea of what effect they would have. I think that if they were mobilising due to it they would have done so pre-emptively.

The forces in Khakiv were spread thin and were more of a screen than anything else, so they fell back very quickly and it does not impact the war in anyway. Lyman is different because they are actually fighting a determined resistance and as I mentioned above the Russians are not going to pull out, it's too late for that. They are committed to this.

So then whether Russia actually has lost the initiative and is in trouble or not depends on the events that will unfold in Lyman. For all we know the Russian may be quite happy letting Ukraine throw their forces into a meat grinder and just waiting for the Ukrainians to run out of steam before they counter attack. Conversely, maybe they are in danger, maybe the Ukrainians will take Lyman and then push further east. We don't know.

 >>/48835/
> they have allowed this
> they did it on purpose not the Ukrainians forced them and exploited their blunders and slowness, this was the plan all along
Russia can't keep up with Ukraine, and falls back in the race.
They had the initiative in the very beginning but they lost it day by day and now Ukraine has it. They are in trouble.
In their withdrawal there was very little planned, they were vis majored from their positions.
> They are committed to this.
And they'll get encircled and trapped. Then forced to surrender. This will be a major news. But not a turning point which decides if they lost the initiative or are in trouble. They both did and are.
> counter attack
Neither side have any such quickness/mobility in them, only when the Russians retreat. Plus no weight to do such thing either. Well now the Ukrainians maybe have it, but Russians aren't. They are committed east of Bakhmutka and Kherson.

 >>/48836/
Well, we are just going to have to wait and see. We will see what the situation is in a week or two or maybe even a few days if the situation really is bad for Russia.

I found this video that is interesting in two ways. Firstly it shows how funny looking these close fights often are, you often see people shooting at each other barely 10 metres away and both missing completely. But I guess stress does that and we don't know how well they are trained.
Secondly in this video a grenade is thrown right next to two Ukrainians and they both seem to barely be effected by it and they run of at the end. This often seems to be the case with all kinds of ordinance in this war, even artillery does not seem to have the effect that you would think it would.

 >>/48838/
That is interesting for sure.
Yeah, missing even from close range is just the reality of small arms fire. We talked about the inability to kill, but modern training aims to come over that obstacle. There are other factors too, as you noted stress does that, plus the effect of the grenade, disorientation, whatnot, I think they were glad to remember what direction to leave.
It seems the grenade fell among that rubble/junk next to them, and prevented to do its job ideally. I guess it had shrapnel and the rubble caught most of that (but then, the rubble itself can act like projectiles).
What I'm curious of, where those two came from? At the start of the video they aren't there. I think that is a drain running below the road, the other side collapsed obstructed (probably that's the normal, peacetime state of it...) so maybe they were inside the drain? But these drains with these roads don't tend to be hueg, so maybe they came somewhere from the outside of the camera's view?

 >>/48774/
> Putin announced a mobilisation of people with relevant experience and reservists and said they would be trained first.
> Following this Shoigu went into more detail. He said they plan to mobilise 300,000 people, they will not mobilise students

It's fucked up completely, even pro-government people try to soften what happened now. Voenkomats (military recruiting centers) grabbed everyone on random, even 60+ yo people with serious health conditions, often without any medical check at all. No one knows would it be 300k or million, or more, there are only rumors. There are reports that some of mobilized already gone to Ukraine without training, but it is hard to confirm now. Dagestan has local unrest, Chechnya was smarter and said that they wouldn't mobilize anyone.

Biggest thing is that Shoigu said something about ages and experience, but published government order had no restrictions at all - they can grab anyone.

Basically, everything in full panic now. Thousands run for borders to visa-free countries (like Georgia or Kazakhstan), airline tickets skyrocketed and hard to find. Borders aren't closed for everyone, but some people already got restriction. Different government branches trying to find how protect valuable workers in hurry, because mobilization was unexpected even for them. Some entities like Digital Technology Ministry have partially implemented solution for some workers (only for specific registered companies, but even this isn't fixed in law now), others still in talks with MoD.

> refusing mobilisation will be punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

Only if you signed under mobilization notice in voenkomat. At least for now, but situation changes pretty fast.

I don't meet Shoigu conditions for multiple reasons, but there is a chance that everything would be bad for me too, they've mobilized some people like me already. I took some effort in hiding though, but don't know if it would be enough.

 >>/48839/
Maybe, I don't think the rubble obstructed it that much though. 
They could have come fro anywhere, maybe we will get a longer directors cut at some point and we will be able to see.

 >>/48840/
I heard about that, about how much of a mess it is. Though it's Russia so you expect that.

> Only if you signed under mobilization notice in voenkomat. At least for now, but situation changes pretty fast.
So what happens if you refuse to sign the papers in the first place? Could you do that?
Otherwise, staying low seems like a good option, though if they have you on record that might be hard.

I think conscription of any kind is immoral, one could eve say it's murder.

 >>/48840/
I only have knowledge about this from NFKRZ's and Survival Russa's videos. Links:
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=q02QJ6NBhu0
https://youtube.com/watch?v=q02QJ6NBhu0
and
https://rumble.com/v1lef5z-russian-mobilization-russian-ukrainian-losses-compared.html
NFKRZ basically is saying what you wrote. Survival Russia seems less skeptical about what the official said (particularly: they only pick for service who is able and has the related professional XP; but not about the losses for example). He also adds couple of considerations, opinion and anecdotal evidence. Liek they call people in, but who gets the draft letter gets examined and his data validated, then they decide about his fate. So the 60 yo gramps was called in then sent home, because he is old. The bloke who was called in but is more useful with his civilian profession sent home.
My XP is that when I had to go through the conscription process, I had to do run around for the medical papers, then after high-school I was notified to go into the next drafting office, then I gave a paper that I'm in uni now, then they gave my ID back and sent away. They have plenty of useless people to choose from they do not need every one of them.
Just because someone gets called up, doesn't mean he'll serve. At least right away, he'll be still put into the db that he is available for later or not. So what the real troubling is this:
> No one knows would it be 300k or million, or more

 >>/48842/
Do you have videos where people blowing each other up with grenades? We can check how it should happen, and then we could try drawing conclusions.
From my understanding anti-personnel grenades have shrapnels around the explosive core, and both the cape of the grenade and the shrapnels are which results injury and/or death. If these guys got out seemingly unharmed, it means something obstructed it, or we have the wrong idea how injured (and/or dead) people behave, or we have the wrong idea about the effectiveness of grenades, or this is a fake video.

 >>/48842/
> So what happens if you refuse to sign the papers in the first place? Could you do that?

There are different types of papers that have different consequences. Some of these papers only about monetary fine, some are harder. They also can force you to do something, because it is Russia. Or at least try.

 >>/48843/
> He also adds couple of considerations, opinion and anecdotal evidence. Liek they call people in, but who gets the draft letter gets examined and his data validated, then they decide about his fate. So the 60 yo gramps was called in then sent home, because he is old. The bloke who was called in but is more useful with his civilian profession sent home.

That is what they often say in official and half-official news. But it very depends on local voenkomat and chance. Those people who are very unfit and get media attention have chance, but there are reports about those who haven't. Now it is very political, and government now unofficially blames voenkomats by pro-gov media.

Biggest problem that every decision is very high-risk. You may think that they'll surely will find you unfit on visit, but they'll do and now you can't escape. So every move, every action is very nervous and serious, because it is life changing one.

 >>/48843/
New NFRKZ video. Banks in Russia are now stealing money from people who use it. 
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=tT_CHfg_i8Y

 >>/48840/
What's going to happen with you bernd? Are you going to get drafted too? And will drafts start in other countries too, like Baltic or Balkan states? What are the long term effects of this new draft?

 >>/48855/
> What's going to happen with you bernd? Are you going to get drafted too?

No one knows. In current situation I don't think that my future will be good.

 >>/48857/
If life gives you potato, make vodka. And post an IWO from upon the Ukraine.

Oh god. I forgot I'm logged in, and have the signature on.

 >>/48855/
> stealing money 
> special operation of ceasing your finances

 >>/48861/
*seizing
fix'd

Putin and the delegates or whoever just signed the, uh, liberation papers of four oblasts, Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhia, and Kherson.
He gave a speech too, some justifications and whatnot. Nothing really astonishing.
Now these regions are liek Crimea, which isn't acknowledged as part of Russia, but in practice everyone do as it was. Even Ukraine did not attack Crimea when they had the opportunity. Will this deter them, and stop further actions towards these places? Will they retreat from those areas which still are on their hands?
For example Lyman is in Kharkiv region, but they hold large chunk of Donetsk.
Will they move cautiosly as they did not really attack into Russia herself. Russia already mobilized and took steps to raise their presence there. Now the ball on Ukraine's side of the field. We'll see.

 >>/48620/
If Muhammad had red hair, he was probably a Jew.

This is the situation around Lyman today.

Only the road to Zarichne remains for resupply but the Russians have sent reinforcements through it and have worked to stabilise the front, the Ukrainians had taken Stavky as well but the Russians pushed the Ukrainians back from there.

Russian forces are in a dangerous situation in that pocket, I wonder if they will try to break out and form a new line or not.

Apparently the Russians have withdrawn from Lyman, interesting. The reinforcements must have been there to facilitate that.
So now the question is whether the Russians have secured their positions and the Ukrainian advance will stop here, or if the Russians really are in trouble and the advance will continue.

Yes, they withdrew.

Turns out Lyman is in Donetsk, not Kharkov as I stated here:  >>/48864/
They still have a strip of Kharkov to the north.

 >>/48872/
Russians withdrew behind a river, they might just hold the line there.
I expect the Ukrainians take the aforementioned strip.
What's up with Kherson?

 >>/48840/
They had months to prepare a more ordered mobilization and didn't. I guess the political leadership thought any preparation for mobilization at all would already be a loss of face and induce fear.

 >>/48861/
Special financial operation.

Ukros moved further east from Lyman, they might have a foothold over the Zherebets river.
Further north at Kupiansk, at the one river back to west (Oskil), they also crossed and took Kivsharvika.
Plus some results at Kherson too.
The result of the Russian mobilization will have effect only later. But in what form?

Hmm, this report says the Russians lost 60K soldiers. I heard Russians estimate 60K Ukrainian losses too. Sounds a lot for both sides. But the conflict is going on for well over 200 days now. The last numbers (100-200 and 1000 deaths per day) we heard about the Ukrainians from June... I wonder what could be the daily average. If we go with the smallest number that's 20K. I don't think the highest could reflect an average. That 60K would be 300/day. Maybe that isn't too high.

 >>/48877/
Russia started the war with 170,000-190,000 and conventional wisdom is that for every dead soldier there are 3 maimed. So if Russia lost 60,000 dead then the real losses to their fighting forces would be 240,000 all up with dead plus maimed. Now, there is clearly a discrepancy here, if that's true Russia should not even have anybody left in Ukraine.

When they announced mobilisation they also said they had lost 5000 but that was only Russian servicemen, a few months ago the CIA and M!6 said they lost 10,000 but I think that estimate covered everybody. So it's possible that if you added DPR, LPR, Chechens, Wagner and Russians you could get 10,000 or that Russia lied and gave a figure a bit lower than the real one and 10,00 is more accurate. But Russian causalities could also still be higher than that. It's really hard to estimate these things.

 >>/48877/
Yes, it looks like they are launching fairly large scale attacks in Kherson and are having some success in the north of the region.

As for the east of Ukraine. I'm still unsure about it. Torske is behind a river but it's a fairly small town/village so the Russians may have felt that unable to hold it and so it may be a situation like the Kherson bridgehead. However if they take Kreminna then we know for sure that they still have momentum, Kreminna is quite important.

It's hard to say what effect the mobilisation will have and when but I don't think it will be the deciding factor here, I think the deciding factor will be whether the Ukrainians can keep their momentum or whether Russia can wear them down.

Also, I found and Australian M113.

Kadyrov is sending his 16,15 and 14 year old sons to the front...

> Ahmat, Eli and Adam are 16, 15 and 14 years old. Their military training began a long time ago, almost from a young age. Ahmat, Eli and Adam are ready to use their skills in the SVO zone. I'm not kidding, it's time for them to show themselves in a real fight, and this is their wish, I can only welcome it. They will soon be on the front lines.

He is insane. This has to be a stunt.

 >>/48886/
Literally all their ancestors were fighting in that age. Or do whatever Chechens were doing back then.

Latest Kherson map. They are gaining ground.

More from Kherson(it's kind of in the other one as well though).

They may finally take Davydiv Brid. I said before that I think that town is very important and that the gains they had in the south would be untenable without it.

Military History Visualized new video about the Russian setback:
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=AcgzB9hqxqo
https://youtube.com/watch?v=AcgzB9hqxqo

But more importantly updates from Colonel Reisner:
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=Q9-NER8aFJ4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q9-NER8aFJ4
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=MojUU8GgThM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MojUU8GgThM

The strip of land north of Łyman up to the border has been... liberated? Abandoned? Idk, I guess it has been abandoned by the Russians since there's no marks on the map about fighting, except for the few places on the south.

 >>/48857/
Stay safe Bernd, don't get dragged into the frontline.

 >>/48893/
The first video by Colonel Reisner of the Australian Bundesheer is partially about that. He talks about the Ukrainian offensives in Kherson and Kharkov:  >>/48892/
Essentially the Ukrainians punched through the Russian lines, and Russians fled.
I also suggest to watch other of his videos on the channel.

 >>/48893/
Oh sorry, it's the since then.
liveuamap is a bit funky in this question, it doesn't present all the events, and the map updates are erratic.

Russia fell back from northern Kherson including Davydiv Brid, the Ukrainians also launched a counter attack in the Donbass along the front near Bahkmut but it failed. They are really pushing now. Most of the units involved in these operations seem to be using western equipment or Soviet equipment from western sources, so these units were probably build up and held back for this offensive.

 >>/48893/
The Ukrainians had a bridge head at Kupiansk and also you can see that there are no natural defences in the south and that the area is fairly open and with few urban areas, so I think they are withdrawing to form a new line along the next river along.

Real Reporter visited a conscription office.
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=SD7xRKpf1kM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SD7xRKpf1kM
What I'd add:
- It seems to be an office especially set to show to the outside world (he notes that not all offices has those facilities...), so relatively clean, neat, and has recruits with positive attitude.
- The "lawyer" guy, he does not remind me of lawyers, his physique is someone's who trains a lot, and his looks reminds me more of those who enter military service here, and maybe police for smaller extent. Or firefighters. I have doubts about him being a lawyer.
- I'm not sure about that "first mobilization since WWII" thing. They did have a war in Afghanistan, and intervened here in '56 and in Czechonorthernhungary in '68. And maybe others. So they had the opportunity to mobilize.

This reminds me it's october 6th. I have to write something about Hungary today. We'll see.

OPEC cut oil production. "sharply"
Europe is getting fugged into the buttocks yet again.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/7/is-opec-aligning-with-russia-after-production-cuts

There is advancement. Despite the hit song titled:
> Ukrainian miltiary repelled Russian attacks
But those who edit liveuamap doesn't know other tunes.
The front is now hugging the Bakhmutka river up to Bakhmut, also the Russians gained more land north  east of that settlement towards the direction of Krasna Hora.
Pic #2 is from July when current offensive started.
Compared to the current Ukrainian successes, the going is very slow. Although steady.
I also noticed, no long range bombarding into occupied territory.
Pic #3 are the new borders in theory.

 >>/48918/
First time in my life I feel like middle east doesnt have enough democracy.

 >>/48920/
Really should write a letter to Ungle Biden about this unbearable situation. Maybe the US would drop some democracy upon them from a bunch of B-52s.

Was just complaining nothing happens.

 >>/48922/
Insane. I wonder how badly damaged is the remaining structure cause only half of the road line fell into the water.

 >>/48923/
I'm not sure. Supposedly some fuel truck blew up, but I'm not sure the thing should have fell down. It's liek the difference between a petard blowing up on your open palm and in your closed fist. But not that I'm any close to an expert, so.
Youtube has videos. Damage is everywhere. Here's one vid which is a collection of vids by The Guardian. Some official report footage too.
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=fxgWCsampJg
https://youtube.com/watch?v=fxgWCsampJg

In the MHV video here  >>/48892/ he mentioned no operational chief overseeing the Ukrainian theater to hold together, coordinate, and command the corps HQs.
Now Moscow named air Force General Sergey Surovikin as the overall commander. Read it on Al Jazeera. I do not have any info about his competence, I'm not sure a bad one could fuck up more so I guess anything would be in improvement. Those units need to coordinate their activities, share resources
Quite the redpill tho. Those units did not have unified command just for about a month in late spring/early summer or so. This partially explains why there wasn't and couldn't be any large scale encirclement implemented (besides the low manpower). They were just left there doing whatever they was able.

Pressure back on.
Did the new commander actually informed himself before he ordered everyone to attack everywhere? It seems like to me it's the
> I have to present results quick no time to think
reaction.
Or the lower HQs sabotaging him on purpose?
Or they really have the resources to do it?
Or I just get the wrong impression from the map, maybe it's intentional on behalf of its editors?

 >>/48926/
I've been looking at that map almost every day, that east frontline would have been attacked very often.

Looks like Crimea Bridge haven't been taken out completely.

 >>/48928/
It looks like there are two 2 lane road sections and a rail section. One Two lane road section was destroyed so cars can still cross but they need to use the other section so I guess it's only one way traffic right now. Also there were fuel trains that were damaged and set alight in the explosion, they are being removed and the railway seems to be fine.

So this does not seem like it will have an impact on the Russian military as the railway is fine and Russian road transport will get priority use as well, so then it's civilians who will have to wait longer to use the bridge if it's one way traffic only. It might be like giant road works.

Putin is holding a security council tomorrow, so we will see what response there will be then I guess.

They were gong one way on the bridge, now they are going two ways on the two lanes that are left. So now I guess there is just more congestion.

 >>/48927/
At Bakhmut there is always some activity. But further down south on the front line close to Donetsk this isn't the case. And it seems they did some counterattack which is atypical too.

Putin says it was Ukrainian special services. Well, duh. Maybe they were helped by Westerners too. In a war it is normal to try to destroy each others infrastructure. And since Westerners are propping up Ukraine so can hold out, it would be normal to give intel support too (as they do anyway).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/10/putin-accuses-ukraine-of-crimea-bridge-blast-terrorism

I found some more Bushmasters.

 >>/48770/
This post almost went unnoticed.
I'm clueless what's going on there. I know the Armenians got their asses handled to them, and drones played important role in this. They did not loss everything but Armenia "proper"?

Made bunch of screenshots today in the morning to make reference point.
Last pic I made to see where the Russians operate in comparison the colored areas. Is that a rail line south to north? Have to check.

 >>/48935/
Nice.

Lots of bombing bombarding.

I thought Russia was going to fall back on to the river that flows past Kreminna but it seems maybe they are pushing back up to the one that flows past Zarichne. I'm not sure but this may mean the Ukrainians have run out of steam, this and they have not achieved anything in the last few days. But they could be reorganizing before pushing onwards, we will see.

 >>/48941/
Again... I wonder if we are going to hear that same story about how the Russians are running out of cruise missiles after this or if people will stop repeating it.

Yesterday on liveuamap there was an entry that during the bombardment one missile/artillery shell went horribly off target and crossed the Moldavian border, and the russian ambasador there was called for explanations. Was there a follow up to this story? I can't find anything so I was wondering, did they just decided to not react, or was it a fake entry?

 >>/48945/
I have not noticed. I'm gonna try to find it.

Found it. Seems it happened, not much consequences yet. Will be any? I don't think so. What can they do?
https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-missiles-crossed-moldova-airspace-deputy-prime-minister-claims/

Reports are coming out about Russian activity in Belarus, Russian troops and supplies are assembling there and there has been a joint Russian-Belarusian military group announced.
Ukraine has sent a lot of what they had in reserve to the front as well as sending a lot of their newly formed western armed units there so I am not sure how well defended they are in the north now.
But of course it could just be a way to apply pressure and force Ukraine to withdraw forces without them actually invading from the north again. 

Though it seems that early on in the war the Russians attempted to blitz Ukraine in a rapid coup which failed then pulled back as they were spread to thin, with the incoming mobilised forces(plus Chechens and other new forces) and the Ukrainians committed more heavily to the east they may feel that they are not longer spread to thin.

 >>/48948/
Finally, we can launch our own offensive and take back our clay.

KC refugee here, can I post anti RuShit-Memes here without getting banned?

 >>/48963/
Sure. You can probably get some more from the Russian lang boards too.

 >>/48966/
I were thinking to build a bike like that earlier for us. Don't expect much good in the future.

Who benefits?

 >>/48969/
Not Wakaliwood sadly.
The French are salty they did not have the great idea to gain the support of the people by influencing them with moving picture tales.
Right now after all these years they look incompetent to clench the Al Qaeda/ISIS threat, while Russians/Wagner tells the locals they can do it themselves with a bit of help, kinda like Assad did. France did a shitty job, and the explanation isn't for them. They did either for incompetence, or they did it on purpose, which means they want the fundamentalist groups to create chaos.

good afternoon frens

 >>/48971/
nice hat mr. chairman

 >>/48971/
Good afternoon, Bernd.

 >>/48971/
Hello comrade. When the incorporation of Taiwan is planned to?

Doesn't look fixed yet

 >>/48984/
It was built for about 5 years or something. I'd assume it won't be a matter of days to fix it.

About the new commander of the Russian troops. Not read yet, just some Al Jazeera article.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/putin-s-attack-dog-brings-a-terrible-new-type-of-warfare-to-ukraine

Uppdayyyets.
Russian counterattack at Kherson? The Ukrainian offensive stopped?

 >>/48984/
Officially out of action till the July of 2023.

Musk is saying he cannot afford to keep Starlink running in Ukraine. It seems he is asking for somebody to help fund it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63266142

I'm not sure if this is connected or not but there have been issues with the satellites lately as well. Ukrainian forces are saying that they are having difficulty getting coverage in some areas of the front, I have heard that be attributed to a lack of coverage over areas they have taken but also to Russian activities, if it was due to Russian activity that would provide even more incentive for him to want to either pull out of get funding for it.

 >>/48996/
I heard that was when it was to be fixed by. Parts of it seem to still be operational.

 >>/48997/
It's foremost the transportation of fuel that is compromised and consequential.

 >>/48996/
> Officially out of action till the July of 2023.
Just in time to supply whatever comes after the Russian capture of Bakhmut.

 >>/48998/
Maybe, it's hard to say how much this will actually effect that if at all. Priority use will naturally be given to the military, maybe that will not be enough, maybe it will. I don't think we will hear the truth, one side is going to say everything is proceeding as normal and the other will say the opposite.

How much is a khordad 15?

It's Wergeltungwaffe Putin is literelly Hitler!

 >>/48997/
It was something liek this:
Musk:
> the occupied places should hold an honest plebiscite with international supervision, and if they want to join Russia, let them join.
Ukrainian diplomat/politician (maybe ambassador to US):
> fuck you, you talk cheap but you no act
Musk:
> huh that Starlink I provide to give Ukrainian people access to the internet and more importantly the Ukrainian military can conduct the war with its help is getting costly, the American govt should pitch in, or just abandon the mission
Musk later:
> I'll still provide the service without reimbursement

 >>/49013/
Quick job is rarely a good one.

 >>/49028/
Was some attack on Belgorod airport yesterday.

 >>/49038/
If you have a country where a war fought, you can get people who will oppose current order, from there and anywhere from the globe, and stage them however as you want. I bet 90% of them expats from the US, whom the US govt raked together. They did the same with Afghanistan, and can do it with any country all over the globe. I bet they can put together a whole government for the UK, France, Canada too if they want.
Thats been said, this doesn't mean the intentions and the thoughts of these man are impure, no matter if they are just puppets and propaganda tools.

 >>/49039/
Oh, and this is just part of the Patriot's Dilemma.

 >>/49039/
> I bet 90% of them expats from the US
I find such speculation to be worthless. The estimated population of Chechen Americans is a mere thousand. If there are Chechen peoples in the US pushing propaganda against Kadyrov's administration; then it is of little effect, as that there are any Chechen's fighting against Russia in this conflict at all is unfortunately surprising. Also, why would the US government have to organise and compel Chechen war veterans to fight against Russia when they have been incipiently aiming to do so at the best opportunity since their defeat?

 >>/49041/
Not literally 90% from the US, but all the places the US can get people from.
> Chechen Americans is a mere thousand
More than enough for a dozen Chechen of a Potemkin unit.
> If there are Chechen peoples in the US pushing propaganda against Kadyrov's administration;
It's not for that.
> compel Chechen war veteran
It's not for that.
1. It's about showing the world that Chechens are divided, it's about propaganda for everyone else, for Westerners in the first place. It's another way of showing that Putin's regime stands weaker legs than Putin would like it want to show.
2. The NATO is gaining Sweden and Finland. In Ukraine a long, long conflict could set in, but maybe not and just gonna be divided sometimes in the next two years, Russia get some parts without being ever acknowledged, the rest is gonna get under EU/NATO control; we'll see. There is still Transnistria and Moldova to cause problems for Russia, but this could be short and minor issue. The Far East, like the Kuril Islands sound unlikely targets, although the Japs are arming, and then Korea is as divided as ever. Since the approach from Central Asia became harder (due to the failure in Afghanistan), it is more likely that NATO will stir conflicts in the Caucasus then there. And they probably need Chechens for that. Also need Westerners to think friendly thought about Chechens when this comes (a good propaganda is when it is able to convince people that a group is their enemy on one day, and friend on the next).

 >>/49042/
On the very long run, the US probably has plans to create secessionist factions for all the various peoples in Russia. Chechens would be a good start. Who knows how many exits already, or have shortlists of people who could be motivated, or put together to do something.

Russian gains directly south of Bakhmut.
Also Belgorod oblast is now light pink.

 >>/49042/
Nigga, please. No one watches Al Jazeera. Do post a report from an American tabloid if you're going to be making this asinine commentary. The video doesn't even illustrate a weakening power of Russia and rather in the opposite shows Kadyrov confidently threatening to fight Poland.

 >>/49045/
> No one watches Al Jazeera. 
> he himself watches Al Jazeera
I'll ignore the rest of this IQ89 comment.

 >>/49013/

EU wants to embargo Iran for the drone shipments to Russia.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/20/russia-iran-defiant-amid-un-pressure-over-ukraine-drones

Not sure how important those "kamikaze" drones are. I think I read various data on how many are them are neutralized by Ukrainian AA, and it is unknown how much pressure it puts onto the Ukrainian military and defense effort. Media prefers to report civilian casualties.

This article is severely biased (I like how it tries to depict a country acting in its own interests as sinister), but many nice crumbs of infos gathered together. Also to put things into geopolitical perspective.
https://theconversation.com/iranian-drones-used-by-russia-in-ukraine-show-that-theres-already-one-victor-in-that-war-iran-192780

I like this article better:
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/iranian-drones-russia-capabilities-and-limitations
How drone warfare will change? They are a great advantage, and can be even larger. Will more effective anti-drone measures emerge?

Meanwhile in Syria, HTS rapidly entered deep into Turkish-occupied territory, displacing the local rebels. Wild speculations about Turkey's role in this:
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/10/turkey-using-hts-strengthen-its-hand-syria
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/10/are-syrias-hts-jihadis-turkeys-new-friends

 >>/49054/
HTS controls Idlib, no? They are also backed by Turkey, whom placed those "observation points" into the way of the SAA when they were carving chunks out of Idlib. Maybe they are getting bored or afraid they lose their edge while sitting and doing nothing.

 >>/49054/
Do you have a rundown of who is who on this new (old) front?

 >>/49050/
kek'd

Looks like no progress has been made by Ukraine for a while.
Russia has withdrawn civilians form Kherson and apparently the Ukrainians are redeploying forces from Khakiv to Kherson. The New York Times and other western publications are saying that Ukraine has a finite amount of time to take back Kherson before the mud season. So maybe there will be a renewed effort, there have been some minor attacks that have not made ground in the area.

 >>/49061/
Well they apparently enacted "stabilization measures" which I'd translate: they put more troops there. Could be from Kharkov. They won't announce they plan to renew the offensive ofc.

In Austria an armoured column was heading yesterday to Hungary for a NATO-Übung.
https://www.heute.at/s/panzer-lkw-nato-eingreiftruppe-durchquert-oesterreich-100234564

Wow, they really did it. They sent Kadarov's sons to the front.

 >>/49073/
Sounds like a lot of small arms fire all about.

 >>/48867/
Nod really. Red hair was fairly common until the Middle Ages when witch hunts happened. Redheads were thought to be the ones most likely to be witches, for some reason.


 >>/48620/
Muhammad was a redhead IIRC. That's what everyone describes him as. And pale skinned.

 >>/49076/
> until the Middle Ages when witch hunts happened. 

The witch hunts happened durign the early modern period.

 >>/49086/
I think we had multiple happenings in history that could be described as witch hunts. I remember reading something about Germany in VIII to X century having that problem. 
> Redheads were thought to be the ones most likely to be witches, for some reason
It was racism against the Irish.

 >>/49076/
It was but I don't think that is the reason for the decline in the region, I think it's more to do with an influx of Arabs and Turks into Anatolia and the Levant and pretty much everywhere really, though Muhammad(peace be upon him) was an Arab as well but it could be a literary creation or it could be that he had slighly reddish hair compared to The Arabs so they refereed to him as having red hair.

 >>/49086/
 >>/49088/
I think he is referring to Arabs/Moors not Europeans. There are traditions in Africa that still see the killing of such people but recently some Algerian or Tunisian woman killed a French girl for a similar reason.

 >>/49056/
> Do you have a rundown of who is who on this new (old) front?
There's a huge number of rebel groups but it boils down to HTS controlling greater Idlib and Turkey controlling Afrin-Azaz-Al Bab through the SNA. It seems HTS took advantage of the endless feuds within the SNA to intervene:
https://syriadirect.org/is-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-withdrawing-from-the-aleppo-countryside-or-staying-in-the-shadows/
> On October 11, HTS intervened militarily in clashes between Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in the northern Aleppo countryside. The Idlib-based faction entered the fray on behalf of the Hamza Division (locally known as al-Hamzat) alongside the Sultan Suleiman Shah Division (al-Amshat). The Hamza Division was under attack by the SNA’s Third Legion, which began clashing with it after it was implicated in the assassination of media activist Muhammad Abdul Latif (Abu Ghannoum) and his wife in al-Bab city on October 7. 

Turkey finally intervened:
>  Turkish military leadership gave Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) until Friday evening to fully withdraw its security and military forces from territories in the northern Aleppo area of Afrin and its countryside that the hardline faction entered last week, local media reported. Turkish forces have also reportedly visited several checkpoints in the Afrin area to compel HTS members to leave for Idlib. 
> But one HTS military source denied there was any Turkish deadline, telling Syria Direct that the faction itself has withdrawn a large portion of its forces, and “is still withdrawing new forces” that participated in the Aleppo countryside operation.

< there totally hasn't been an ultimatum to withdraw. By the way, we're withdrawing.
Yet according to the article, HTS is still in Afrin, just keeping a low profile, which makes its control ambiguous.

Now Turkey apparently wants to discipline and reorganize the SNA. Why haven't they done this before?
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-turkey-reorganise-rebel-groups-hts-withdraws-afrin?utm&#95;source=Twitter&utm&#95;medium=Social&utm&#95;campaign=Social&#95;Traffic&utm&#95;content=ap&#95;svxsfng7i0

 >>/49076/
It's the Middle East, Arabia 600AD, not HRE or wherever.
"Classic" witch hunts, in industrial size happened after Reformation, basically this  >>/49086/
> Redheads were thought to be the ones most likely to be witches
I highly doubt there was such bias. Accusations based on personal interests. And protestant zealotry.
But, my comment was a joke. I think Jews gaining ginger traits happened due to mixing with Europeans, original Jews of the Middle East were, well, Eastern Med phenotypes.

I'm collecting casualty reports on the Ukraine war. What we can see here are the Russian casualties as reported by the Ukrainian MoD. Now, obviously, these numbers are propaganda. But when assuming that the bias remains somewhat constant througout time, we can still arrive at some insights through them. While the conflict is taking up less space in the headlines and no sweeping offensives are underway, the 10-day average of daily Russian casualties keeps rising nontheless. This might be an effect of improved capabilities on the Ukrainian side, Russian conscripts arriving on the frontlines or one or both sides trying to increase the pressure on the frontlines.

 >>/49119/
Good job. Potentially could be very useful.
Where are those reports published? I sometimes see one on liveuamap like here:  >>/48877/ but that seems a sum of the losses.
How frequently they publish them? How many reports were issued?
What's the legend of the chart? The two axes I assume the time (from April to October), and the # of man lost. But what are the dots? The numbers of each report? I guess the line is the actual visual representation of the process of suffering casualties from day to day.

What I see is a dropping a flat and a growing trend. The beginning of the war was more intensive, and now the pressure was put on again. On the liveuamap almost every day Russian attacks can be seen, so they constantly try to advance on the Bakhmut front, and often on Donetsk.
The first big jump in September was the Ukrainian advance, and gains? I have to look up when happened what.

First map is from 2 day ago.

 >>/49121/
What you are seeing here are the numbers of Russian casualties as reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense which they publish daily on Facebook and other platforms. X-axis is indeed time and y-axis the number of Russian casualties per day. The grey dots are the number on each day and the black line is the 10-day moving average. I have cut off the initial phase of the war. Both because it makes the rest of the graph hard to read and because the numbers are interpolated and unreliable. Funnily enough, the newest daily report is so high (950) that it goes beyond the scale of the graph I'm generally working with. Pic related are the two graphs. Todays report echoes the bloodiest days from the beginning of the conflict.

What we can learn from this graph, I'm not entirely sure. It certainly helps me contextualize the current course of the conflict. Major real developments also coincide with spikes and valleys in the graph, so it's not completely detached from reality.

 >>/49123/
Ah thanks. Maybe it's not that far from reality. I added the two data we got from Ukrainian officials (one from Zelensky and one from close to Zelensky, we mention the sources in this or the previous thread) from about June 1 and June 15: 100 and 1000 daily. I think somewhere they were also talking about 2-300 as well, but not sure when.

I'm wondering about all the "losses" Ukraine suffered from the the last ~20 years. They were 48 mil with Crimea, and it is estimated that the population is 41 million now. But a few millions migrated to West, mainly men got jobs in EU countries and now many women who fled from Ukraine during the war actually followed their husbands, sons, and fathers. Maybe there is a data of this. I can recall something liek Poles mentioning they received 2 million Ukrainians after the 2015 "migrant crisis" started, claiming those are enough they don't need Middle Easterners and negers.

Yesterday it was all bomb icons. Which at this point mostly means shelling.
The Ukrainian attack in Kherson seems not to happen. I guess, whatever the media publishes about the Ukrainians preparing to do is misinformation, and they do something else.

The map isn't interesting, but the news on the side:
1. mobilizing criminal offenders - Is this a good idea? I mean, sure psychopaths are nice if we want to get people killed, they won't hesitate much, but criminals generally unreliable to do what's demanded (bad at following rules), plus they might commit further crimes, which might mean more bad rap. And if the "criminals" are those who protest against the war, would sending them kill and/or die would change their mind? Would they be enthusiastic soldiers?
2. 318K mobilized, 49K "on combat tasks" - Well I heard after the mobilization got announced that they'll send to secure the annexed hinterland, doing maintenance, driving vehicles, convoys. Technically these could be combat tasks, but combat is more literal for me, actual fighting.

 >>/49144/
Yes, nothing has happened for a while now.

Wagner already started recruiting prisoners months ago, but that's Wagner. I guess it depends on what they are in prison for, what kind of unit you are sending them too and what you want them to do.

Yes, that has been what I wanted to know ever since the mobilization was announced, sure they are calling up 300,000 but what will they actually do and what will that actually change?
A few days ago some mobilised soldiers were captured by the Ukrainians but I don't know the context around that, they still could be logistics or it might be that some are fighting on the front but most are not.

The Russians ran out of bullets and have to use bows and arrows now.

 >>/49145/
There was one village Ukrainians took at Kherson.
> what will that actually change?
For now I assume, they:
1. solidify and secure the control of the annexed areas;
2. take whole Donetsk;
3. take whole Zaporozhia;
4. take a while.

 >>/49147/
They are making it genre appropriate on the steppes.

27 minutes full of adrenaline fueling violence documenting the liberation of Kupyansk. Some shots are legitimately cinema-worthy. Enjoy a tour through rough, fogged landscapes. Across rivers, over fields and through towns we accompany the brave Ukrainian soldiers on their way to victory. But watch out where you tread! Festering cadavers line the roads and blown up tanks rust in the fields. 
Sadly, they did not bother to code in subtitles. It doesn't matter much, however, as the focus is clearly on fighting, killing and violence. Makes you proud to be a man and to share a continent with such fearless warriors.
If you want to get even closer to the reality of the war or are just a sick fuck who gets off on seeing mutilated russian corpses, there's uncensored versions floating around Telegram. 

Enjoy!


https://youtube.com/watch?v=jVvgnHxJoSY

 >>/49157/
It's interesting though I have seen bits of it before like the toilet part and the guy who looks like he crushed his leg when the BTR he was on crashed but I think calling them brave fearless warriors is a bit much, I am not saying they are not but I never heard return fire in any of those videos. It seems they were just mopping up stragglers. It's the guys in Kherson who are actually being brave.

 >>/49158/
They could have dodged military service or outright fled the country at any point between the invasion by a force that was projected by all parties to take their capital in a matter of days and now. They prevailed and are now reaping their rewards. I call that bravery.

 >>/49161/
The Ukrainians stopped men of fighting age from leaving pretty early on, they would be mobilised at some point anyway.
But what you are saying is that all volunteers are brave(it's Kraken so I would assume they are volunteers) regardless of whether they do anything brave or not, you are also saying that Russian soldiers are braver on average than Ukrainian ones as the initial force was a volunteer force and only now are mobilised soldiers beginning to be involved. I don't think volunteering to join the army automatically makes you brave.

 >>/49162/
From the what I understand (and through the limited contact I have with Ukrainians whose family members fight in Ukraine), the guys joining the military generally assume that they won't come out alive. If that's not bravery I don't know what is.

 >>/49163/
> getting yourself killed for the interests of some corrupt politicians

I would call it idiocy.

 >>/49157/
Watched some, quality is good. Will finish it sometimes.
Watched they made shots from next to a fence in the general direction of supposed enemy. Seemed to me they fired a bit high.

 >>/49161/
> dodged military service or outright fled
Borders were shut down for them. Needed dough to leave.

 >>/49162/
Well volunteers must have some motivation to join, stronger than the motivation of the fear from death and injury. In the "battles thread", about the killing, I think we discussed that average people frequently act bravely in the face of death, and can do breddy heroic stuff - especially if their other choice is killing people. But volunteers also have motivation to overcome the aversion of killing, beyond the training (and other factors we talked about) the army should give them to do that.

 >>/49163/
> the guys joining the military generally assume that they won't come out alive.
Losses must be breddy high.

 >>/49147/
This entire war is just kinda ridiculous 

 >>/49165/
> Losses must be breddy high.
I think it's done on purpose for both sides. Example here  >>/49147/

Time will tell if whoever is in charge of the military and our respective governments if each of our countries will pull these types of shenanigans again. But worse. Like with slingshots and rocks for examples.

The Russians have been evacuating civilians form Kherson, they are blowing bridges in the area and they have build fortified lines behind Kherson on the east bank of the Dniper.
Maybe they are going to withdraw soon. I don't think they would do this lightly after having held referendums there.

Well that was confirmed quickly.

Surovikin and Shoigu held a conference.

> Surovikin: Kherson and adjacent settlements cannot be fully supplied and function, people's lives are constantly in danger

He proposed a withdrawal to the east bank of the Dnieper and Shoigu agreed.

 >>/49184/
> Like with slingshots and rocks for examples.
I can see it: they'll employ Palestinian kids as drill sergeants.

 >>/49196/
> Surovikin proposed
> Shoigu agreed
Then Putin pulled his hands out of their asses and put them back into the box of puppets.

This is interesting.

This removes Russia's bridgehead over the Dnieper but in order to push forward Ukraine has to cross the Dnieper as well.
So it's likely both sides won't try to make any more serious moves in the area which then frees up most of the Russian grouping in the area to be relocated to other fronts. This applies to Ukraine as well.
Logistically, this will shorten Russia's supply lines quite a bit, there will not be large amounts of fighting in that area an so they will not need large amounts of supply. Where these forces are relocated to will be easier to supply.

Ukraine's next move will most likely be to try and push south to Meltipol and Mariupol. Russia has a large number of options that it might pursue given the size of the border, they could launch a new assault on Kyiv, Khakhiv or anywhere. But I think most likely they will focus on the Donbass still, particularly as that also threatens any large Ukrainian groupings trying to push south.

 >>/49198/
I concur. Dnieper is a bitch to launch an attack over, I agree that Melitopol and Mariupol has to be more promising goals with a southward push.
Also the main Russian target to gain control over whole Donetsk. With that, they can threaten any southward operation of the Ukrainians, and probably prevent against Mariupol. Problem is the current directions Russians are going probably the most fortified.

And they are already gone. They blew up the Antonovsky bridge behind them as well.

That's fairly impressive, retreats are notoriously difficult so I thought there would be difficulties withdrawing particularly as they are withdrawing over a river. But the day after they announce it they are gone and no complications seem to have arisen, not even with the rear guard, I'm not sure their even was any fighting in the rear as they left.
They were clearly planning this for a long time but still.

Some minor actions in the Donbass as well, the Russians took Pavlivka.

 >>/49202/
That retreat was probably their best planned operation of the whole war.

One of the ex-prisoners that Wagner recruited either surrendered or deserted so undercover Wagner guys knocked him out with a brick, took him to a basement and executed him with a sledgehammer. They filmed this and uploaded it as an example to the rest. I'm clearly not going to post it or save it or even watch it.
These guys are savages.

 >>/49202/
Now they reshuffle the deck, on both sides. We'll see what happens.
I'm hoping Colonel Reisner will post something soon.

 >>/49203/
Kek. Funny but true.

 >>/49205/
How do we know they were Wagner if they were undercover? How did they get to a prisoner of the Ukrainians?
> These guys are savages.
I can imagine that. But if one wants to keep in check psychos... All "disciplinary" military units consisted of brutes, from the French foreign legion to Dirlewanger, and back into ancient past (those who committed something that was judged as crime by the commanders got to posts where most brutality was needed).

Oh no, I haven't posted a map for a while now.
When I opened up liveuamap it was quite empty, then I refreshed, oh the activity.

At least one thing changed in the past week maybe. Russians gained some land at the Bakhmutka, south of Bakhmut at Zaitseve.
Compare to the first map here:  >>/49122/

 >>/49235/
It's hard to say what is happening there, I do hear about positions and villages being taken but because of how fortified the area is the ground they actually take on a map is very small and hard to pinpoint.

The Kurds look like they might be in trouble. The Turks have been hitting Kurdish positions and Erdogan has indicated that a ground operation was on the table.
Things are no better for them in Iraq, the Iranians are hitting them there too and have also been talking about a possible ground operation.

What a curious turn of events.

 >>/49246/
Only need to sleep two, and it'll be done.

 >>/49278/
I think there always are a number of artillery/drone(?) attacks on them.

 >>/49246/
One effect of giving up the area west of the Dniepr, if Russians managed to evacuate well, they can barrage the land however they want, with whatever they have, no need to be precise or even close to it.

Turkish strikes on northern Syria. Erdogan is drumming up a major operation, but then says this:
https://apnews.com/article/europe-middle-east-syria-turkey-istanbul-1f39f4f984c57a48e9b038505f2309f1
> Erdogan said the new military offensive, planned to take place “at the most convenient time for us”
So he might very well postpone a ground offensive.

 >>/49317/
I also prepared an offensive to take Transylvania back, I just postponed it to a time which will be the most convenient for me.

I'm thinking about the manipulative nature of the liveuamap when it comes to Ukraine  >>/49211/ (and probably to other conflict).
How only Russian areas are painted light-red while Ukraine itself remains uncolored, not indicated in any way, as if it would remain out of the conflict.
In contrast the Syrian maps  >>/49317/ gave colors to each sides, quite a few.

The Russians are making gains south of Bahkmut, a number of villages have been taken. It seems that Wagner groups is primarily responsible for it. Ukraine is sending more forces to the region and did launch a counter attack that failed as well.

 >>/49330/
> Wagner
Thanks for reminding me.

So what I wanted to post. Watched Real Reporter who visited his hometown and talked to his friends "friends"?, but here's a snippet. He mentions that some ads on the streets, billboards (from what I can tell not the one shown) are Wanger's recruitment ads. Is it important? You be the judge.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=0kUSskRhdSs
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=0kUSskRhdSs

 >>/49330/
Liveuamap also shows the gains there. They are basically over the Bakhmutka, and hugging that north-south railroad line between Bakhmut and Horolivka.
Beyond that in that triangle with Kostantinovka in the last corner, there are open fields with that one canal thingy cutting it in half. But in google sat maps one can find interesting features here and there, like banks surrounding square piece of areas. And ofc treelines and such dividing the fields.

Have they set it up this command since then?
https://www.dw.com/en/us-pentagon-planning-ukraine-command-in-germany-report/a-63297386

Now this is a relatively radical change. Compared to the last months'.
Russians advanced beyond the said railway line  >>/49334/ took Kurdiumivka too. They were driving attacks to that place for months. Now they are hugging the canal beyond.

They really attacked with those large ass "drones" and noone noticed?
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=C8urDm-x0rs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=C8urDm-x0rs

Oil prices are falling since June or something, now Brent is below $80 per barrel. I think the Ural oil which Russia exports is even cheaper (I think generally is). The EU introducing $60 pricecap on Russian oil will surely force Russia onto her knees...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Brent-Oil-Erases-All-2022-Gains-As-It-Dips-Below-80.html

Meanwhile we had cap on domestic fuel prices, gas was about 1 dorrar and change per liter. Now the cap is canceled and the price will rise to ~1.5 dorrars.

 >>/49387/
Btw Hungary got exemption from the introduction of the price cap on Russian oil. I'm not sure if it's good or not for us. No price ceiling means we'll buy Russian oil higher than that. But then Putin said something that they will stop oil transports to those countries who introduce the limit. But if they don't care in the end, then what.
Orbán says another rounds of EU sanctions coming, for gas and nuke energy.

According to Vladimir Putin, 

"out of 300,000 mobilized, less than 150,000 are in the special operations zone, of which 77,000 are in combat units, and the rest are in the second or third line or on additional training.

About 150,000 are still in camps and training centers in Russia and that is the so-called combat reserve".

 >>/49393/
For some reason this reminds me of that American division in WWII at Caen (or nearby), I don't remember the number. They said it's three divisions. One on the front, one in the hospital, one in the cemetery.

Westerners can suffer on the Ukraine too.

This is neat.
Ukraine is getting 18 155mm Howitzers mounted on Boxers.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/08/germany-remote-howitzers-ukraine/

 >>/49403/
> Remote-Controlled 
Need to hit the remote controller to counter it.

 >>/49404/
I assume the turret is remote controlled but the Boxer itself is crewed, but it did not say.

 >>/49405/
How boring.

Article from Al Jizzair.
> Russian missiles, artillery and drones have hammered targets in eastern and southern Ukraine, as global economic powers pledged to beef up Kyiv’s military capabilities with a focus on air defences.
> The G7 promised on Monday to “meet Ukraine’s urgent requirements” after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to the virtual G7 meeting for modern tanks, artillery firepower and long-range weapons against Russia’s devastating invasion.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/12/g7-pledges-to-meet-ukraines-urgent-air-defence-requirements

Russians really pound Ukros, and not much activity from the Ukrainian side. Even mainstream Hungarian news outlet noted it. I think right now there is a Russian superiority which will be equaled by Western support for a while. Is there enough will and strength in Ukraine to do another thrust somewhere? Maybe from Zaporozhia to Mariupol?

Also Belaroosian news.

This is the future of warfare.

 >>/49450/
Context? Can't even tell who are those fags. It's probably not on the Ukraine...
At least some of those fags has the mask on so won't get corona.

 >>/49452/
There was a fight between the Chinese and the Indians again.

 >>/49454/
So they rounded up a bunch of chinks with barbed wires and they tried to club them to death like Canucks the baby seals?

 >>/49455/
The Chinese tried to climb a stone wall that marks the boundary and past that there is barbed wire, the Indians attacked them with sticks when they did and the Chinese ran off after.

 >>/49466/
Well that wall must had been very important at the time.

Heh. They are still crashing.

 >>/49454/
 >>/49454/
Another national conflict? Really? So soon?

 >>/49476/
Heh.
While Harriers saw actual combat with very good results, and not even yesterday, the VTOL planes still feel more like novelties.

 >>/49477/
It's constantly ongoing. They have these skirmishes where they engage in melee with various home made and improvised weapons. I heard some are quite brutal. But it isn't really a war.

> Wagner
They operate everywhere.
Also why every second village on the Ukraine is called Bilohorivka???

Today Zelensky visited Bakhmut.
To revere the event Russians organized unusual amount of attacks.
Or maybe just the map updated in a way that would suggest that.

There was another security meeting in Russia yesterday. 
Of interest is this.

> The defense minister also said it was necessary to increase the number of combat personnel in Russia’s army to 1.5 million troops.
> He also proposed widening the age range for mandatory military service — currently between 18 and 27 — to 21 and 30.

I dislike conscription but raising the age bracket from 18 to 21 is good in my opinion, I think if you are going to conscript soldiers and send them to die they should be around 30.

But more interesting is that 1.5 Million strong army, of those around 600,000 are meant to be contract soldiers(this is taken from another source not Defence Post).
NATO is going to have to expand in response.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/22/russia-combat-readiness-nuclear-forces/

 >>/49515/
Just to make sure the drama crisis continues.
Somewhat related:
Yesterday I listened Orbán's end year press conference he gave the day before that, about half the 2 hours chitchat.
He said we, Hungary, managed to stay out of the war. Most of Europe are in this war already, since those who:
- are sending weapons are in the war, at least ankle deep;
- those who are training soldiers of one side are knee deep in it;
- those who aren't just training soldiers, but does operational, command training too, they are waist deep in it;
- and those who aren't just financing the military expenditure, but make it possible that the whole state can function - like how now the EU does it these days by €18 billion -, they are chest deep in it.
And he really hopes they won't drag Europe into it neck deep.
The journalist of Bloomberg asked how Hungary managed to stay out of the war when with the EU, Hungary too sends money the same (see point #4).
Orbán replied, that if we asked both Russians and Ukrainians they would tell that Hungary stayed out of it.

 >>/49484/
> They operate everywhere.
srsly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

All those conflicts. Even in Africa

 >>/49520/
Everywhere where proper butchers are needed well these wars aren't really birthday parties with balloons and cakes in need of some quality clowns to do the entertainment. They probably bring the results.

This damned thing in the Balkans is still ongoing.

Serbia is sending troops to the border and has now put it's forces on the highest level of alert.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/26/serbia-alert-kosovo-tensions/

I feel it may go poorly for the Serbs if it comes to war, their benefactor is predisposed at the moment and the west really does not care if it angers said benefactor either. A war in the region right now might even be good for Nato, they should be able to squash Serbia.

There is more talk of a Russian thrust from Belarus again as well. It's possible, if they have the forces to spare then I see no reason why they should not, it would divert Ukrainian forces at least. But I don't know if they can spare the troops.

 >>/49542/
I'm not sure what to think about it.
Additionally to this, with Croatia and us, Serbia is involved in a new initiative to stop the migration at the border of Macedonia. And there is another one, which includes Austria, and involves the Bulgarian border. This also complicates things, and can derail the cooperation. Obviously no foreign troops will go there if war breaks out. At least I highly doubt they would go there.
Should be noted that NATO organized a new HQ in Bavaria to be command central for the Eastern Euro troops, where more units were directed as well. There is a chance that they'll enter Ukraine at one point and create a safe zone in western Ukraine. But... if they are here, they could be used against Serbia too.
Is Europe spiraling into a war again?

On the Belarus front it could be enough to just sit there and bombard with artillery. They might be able to reach Kiev, I've no idea about the capabilities. Still Belarus would suffer losses, and the popular support of Luka, could fall more if it is possible.
With Russia they just signed some stuff which creates a common economical union. Maybe some embargo can be outsmarted by Belarus being a facade for purchases.
Meanwhile Moscow stopped shipping oil to countries who introduced pricecap on their oil.

 >>/49543/
Belarus itself probably would not be involved, it would be like last time, Russia would invade through Belarus.

The Russians have large numbers of soldiers training there which is why people think this. But I don't know how many they have and if that is enough.
Also, it's quite likely they really are just there for training. Russia mobilised a lot of men in a very short time, they probably need all the training infrastructure they can get and bases in Belarus have the advantage of being close to Ukraine as well.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/turkeys-russian-red-light-in-syria/
> Russia has, for years, had an apparent up-or-down vote on any major new Turkish action in Syria. Now Moscow seems to have successfully used that leverage to drag Ankara into normalizing relations with Damascus incrementally, if only to allow for a new incursion in Syria before next year’s Turkish elections. The result may be another Turkish offensive, this time launched in coordination with Syrian authorities — striking jointly at a U.S. partner that poses a problem for both parties and, in the process, further legitimizing the Syrian government in Damascus.

> Whether Turkey actually invades Syria again, though, is a decision that will likely be made in Moscow, not Ankara. So when Turkish officials next threaten an incursion, U.S. officials and other concerned parties need to be watching for another Turkish-Russian convergence. Another agreement between Erdogan and Putin could mean not only a new military offensive in northern Syria but also, if it entails Turkish-Syrian normalization, a huge political shift in Syria’s war.

 >>/49570/
It looks  like if both US and Russia opposes a Turkish step, they can't do much and back down.
But meself too see the future of Turkey unsure. Will they approach Russia, leave NATO maybe? Will the US putsch them to prevent this? Will they just balance it out as much as possible while remaining as US ally (and Israel's) - kinda like Hungary does?

 >>/49580/
Syria looks like a puzzle with pieces that'll never fit. If Assad takes Idlib, an unacceptable number of refugees enter Turkey. If Turkey invades the left bank of the Euphrates to fit current and future refugees, Syrian and American interests will be harmed. If Syria invades the left bank, American interests will be harmed. If the left bank stays as it is, Turkey has an uncomfortable PKK presence at the border. Assad-Erdogan cooperation would be a good way forward for peace as ultimately Turkey can hand over occupied territory in a final peace deal. Maybe Erdogan lets Assad take over Idlib and Assad/Putin allow him to invade PKK territory, it'd bring the puzzle closer to a solution, but how does America fit in?
Furthermore, any such solution will involve betrayals, Assad and Putin would have to betray the PKK, which the Syrian army has already sent forces to protect. Further down the line, Erdogan will have to betray the Syrian rebels. And maybe even Putin will have to betray Assad to a limited extent.

 >>/49584/
That is a good description. But can be applied to whole middle east. And maybe even to Europe. This stale air of peace and understanding is kind of a result of an artificial stop forced onto Europe. Civilized people my ass.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/5/ukraine-attacks-russian-barracks-deflects-iranian-drones
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/3/makiivka-attack-explainer
What's this Echelon system?

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/05/macron-promises-tanks-ukraine/

The are saying France is the first to deliver western tanks to Ukraine now. Well, they are talking about the AMX 10... I would call it an armoured car.

I think that this year the West is going to have to bite the bullet and send western tanks(with treads) to Ukraine at some point. They don;t really have much else to send, though they have managed to get tanks from the Moroccans.

 >>/49591/
Apparently it's a bunch of golf balls.

 >>/49592/
Maybe they are already training crews for the Western equipment somewhere.

 >>/49593/
This article from September last year says the Spanish intent to train Ukrainian soldiers and part of that training involves tanks. As Spain is an operator of Leopard 2s that could be what tanks they refer to.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/09/13/spain-training-ukrainian-soldiers/

It's finally happening. The Germans are sending Marders to Ukraine and the US are sending Bradleys.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/06/us-germany-send-armored-vehicles-ukraine/

The Germans are sending 40 Marders.

 >>/49595/
Wow, finally all the Cold War era equipment gets used!

 >>/49596/
And US moves the 101 to Romania.

 >>/49598/
Oh the 101 is there since October.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-news-russia-us-army-101st-airborne-nato-war-games-romania/
https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/101st-airborne-still-deployed-in-romania-simulating-war-with-russia/

Russian tanks are shit! SHIT!
https://discover.hubpages.com/education/The-Fatal-Flaws-of-Russian-Tanks
> autoloader
moar like autokiller amirite

 >>/49601/
He does not seem to know what he is talking about.

He is wrong about Kursk but that is not related to this. 

The footage of the convoys being destroyed early in the war was caused by Russian air defence being turned off, they assumed all planes would be their own and they were also using electronic warfare at the time that would interfere with AA(this is also why we got recordings of open radio coms early in the war, because they had to resort to it due to their own electronic warfare). But one will also notice that this went away very quickly and we have not seen footage like that sense. Because their AA was activated again. But this is not really related to tanks per say either.

He says no western tanks use Autoloaders, this is clearly wrong.

Anyway, regarding Autoloaders and Russian tanks in general. The Carousel is not actually as big of an issue as people make it out to be, it's located fairly low down so it's hard to hit, it's probably less likely or just about as likely to be hit as the ammunition stored in the front of a Leopard 2.
The main issue that caused such explosions(which are not unique to Soviet tanks by the way, we have images of Leopard 2s in the same state) was that spare ammunition was stored all over the fighting compartment and that was more likely to be hit, the T-90 solved this by adding a western style ammo store in the back of the turret. I'm not saying this is ideal, the carousel is still a danger but less of one than people think.

Another drawback of the carousel is that it limits the length of ammunition being fired, that is probably a bigger issues as it limits the length of the dart making it be able to penetrate less armour.

Other issues of Soviet tanks are that they have slow reverse speeds, poor ERA coverage, many lack thermals and they are ugly.

 >>/49602/
> ugly
T-72s are quite pleasant looking. Previous ones not so much.

Soledar fell. Wagner group had been making steady progress for the last few days but it seems it's mostly over now. There were some Ukrainian troops that had been cut off and might still be fighting on in Soledar, not sure if they are still. Apparently there are about 400 of them trapped there but this is not solid information. Apparently some International legion guys are trapped too.

It's interesting, all of the heavy fighting for the past few months seems to have been around Bahkmut and most if not all of that is being done by Wagner. So what is everybody else doing? What are the Chechens doing? Are they holding these forces back to launch an offensive when Bahkmut falls?

Some progress south of Bakhmut too. Compare to these:  >>/49364/  >>/49484/
> some International legion guys
We might hear about them, as on previous occasions. Perhaps about their trial, or in a form of exchange.

Apparently the Soledar Saltmine is actually quite large.

> The scale of the mines is vast, with 125 mi (201 km) of tunnels,[1] are at a depth of 288 m (945 ft),[2] and many of the chambers are 30 m (98 ft) in height.[3] The largest resembles a hangar of about 100 m (330 ft) length and 40 m (130 ft) width and height, and has accommodated soccer matches and the inflation of a hot air balloon.[4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soledar_Salt_Mine

I wonder how much use this was for the Ukrainians and what it changes now they lost it.

Here is Wagner in the Salt mine, there is an ammo cache seen in this footage as well.

 >>/49621/
I bet it was used a lot. If there is a naturally or artificially occurring hole, a soldier will use it... :^)
Tunnels are used since forever for military purposes. Soviets also loved them. Those and railroad. Sometimes combining them.
We have an old school fortification, it had tunnels all over, Russkies used it during the years of occupation and they widened the tunnels at places so tanks could roll through.

Poland is talking about giving Ukraine a company of Leopard 2s but as part of an international coalition. Whenever people ask Germany to send tanks they say that nobody else has send western tanks so Poland seems to be trying to set the precedent which is why the number is so low. Britain is talking about sending Challenger 2s as well, they downsized their tank force recently so they would have spares that are probably in reasonably good condition.

 >>/49620/
Apparently Opytne just fell as well now.

Opytne
Where is that?

 >>/49624/
It's south of Bahkmut.

I found this new map site as well, the old one has not updated since last September.
I don't know how accurate this is though, it seems the Russians are far too outnumbered.
The website is militaryland.net

 >>/49627/
Haha, I saw a map that showed the units on both sides. It was a joke map, but it reflected the situation with the numbers.
Well at least when Russians shoot randomly somewhere, they can be sure they hit someone...

And Russians suddenly breached the front. South of Bakhmut, within that triangle towards Kostiantynovka. It could be start of something, if they can push more forces in there, widen the breach, and move behind of... nothing really. And I expect more fortifications all around. Basically it's a pocket. And those forces are probably in grave danger now, they can be hit from Zalizne, Kostiantyivka, Chasiv Yar, and Bakhmut.
If they can't trigger a larger scale withdrawal of the Ukrainian forces, it seems kinda useless. There is no direction which they could try to connect. Maybe they could threaten the troops defending Klischivka to the east (just south of Bakhmut), and make them retreat, then they could solidify the gains.

17 million. And a half. Jesus.
Minus the population of the "original" secessionist states, minus all the dead. They are down by the half of the population of Ukraine. I don't count those who lived on the recently occupied territories, I think most of them fled to Russia.

Lindiybeige uploaded three interviews with a friend of his who was in Ukraine. Long videos. I'm watching the third right now, I won't finish it, just let it roll for couple of minutes. It is very interesting.
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=TCbD4WBqPg4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=TCbD4WBqPg4
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=DANTP2n8x3c
https://youtube.com/watch?v=DANTP2n8x3c
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=ofJw89oI4cc
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ofJw89oI4cc
It seems most of those "bombs" we can see on the livemap, is mortar shelling (81 and 120mm).
Funny note about Geneva conventions at at about 12 mins.

 >>/49631/
A lot of them came back as well, I'm not sure if that map includes them.

 >>/49632/
I saw them, they are interesting. 
Something else that is interesting that you see with him and other foreign fighters is that they tend to have little or nothing going for them at home, they tend to have dead end jobs and no education and they are often previously discharged from the army(not him I think but another guy called Civ Div was).

Also, cluster munitions are not banned by the Geneva convention, that is another convention and one which neither Russia or Ukraine signed(nor the US for that matter). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions

 >>/49633/
> Thank you, Vladimir Putin, for curing covid

 >>/49633/
> Also, cluster munitions are not banned by the Geneva convention, that is another convention and one which neither Russia or Ukraine signed(nor the US for that matter).
Or Poland for that matter.

 >>/49641/
Polan is evil.
Watch these  >>/49632/ dem really good.

Holy shit, a green event.

Britain is sending 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. 14...

It's kind of pointless really, even more so as they don't use the same ammunition that any other tank in the Ukrainian army does or ever will. They are trying to get the ball rolling and hopeing others will join in.



https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/16/uk-sending-heavy-tanks-ukraine/

 >>/49647/
As we previously talked about they could free up tanks elsewhere.
But maybe could be used for one push, an offensive somewhere. Like towards Mariupol.
Or they could sit somewhere on the Kherson front and shoot over the river occasionally.
Or maybe they expect another incursion from Belarus, it might not happen, but they want tanks there just in case, and they don't want those from elsewhere what they actually use.
We can never know when a dozen of Challengers can come in handy.
And could be how you said, start the ball rolling. Maybe Polan sends the Leo 2-s next.

More possible gains for Russians, over the railway lines north of Bakhmut, near Soledar they just took.
Perhaps Ukrainians will take it back, but on the other hand it might be hard to stabilize the front. I wouldn't expect quick collapses.

 >>/49651/
It might cause a withdrawal from the area around Siversk as they would be getting close to having fire control over the roads heading into that region.

On Kárpátalja in several settlements Hungarian flags and Hungarian language signs were removed from buildings, and Hungarian directors of institutions (such as schools) were fired. A new local law/ordinance was cited, as they enforced it - but this supposed law contradicts higher level legislation as well. At a village where the Hungarians themselves weren't quick to act as ordered, the police went and took down the flags and signs, during the night.
https://karpataljalap.net/2023/01/17/celkeresztben-magyar-zaszlok-feliratok-es-intezmenyvezetok

I demand the Hungarian army to move in and de-Nazify these settlements!

 >>/49665/
 >>/49665/
why they do that though? :(

There might be an offensive going on in the south. I am not sure.

It seems the Russians are making some moves but I am not sure how major it is yet.

 >>/49666/
Sounds like provocation. I saw a follow up article, at least the headline, that Hungarian govt is mad, and demanding explanation. To be honest rising tension between Ukraine and Hungary is only good for Russia, if it's good for anyone. There is some bad blood and I can imagine the Ukros want to just give the middle finger, and I can imagine our govt. could use some leverage against Ukros that they handle their minorities badly, so maybe there is more to it.

 >>/49668/
Liveuamap also shows the action there, for yesterday.
The front on the Bakhmutka river also perked up, Russians managed to follow up that breakthrough south of Bakhmut and widen the front, the south at Ozarianivka (the road crosses that canal there), and the north-east of it they captured Kiischivka.
Literally greatest progression for months. Meanwhile I read in Hungarian media, that the situation at the front is stalemate.

Shelling along the whole border.

What is Putin's endgame now? Starting from the premise that the purpose of this war was to prevent a large, NATO-aligned state at Russia's border, it now seems like any outcome will be a failure, even if they can consolidate present territorial gains. If an armistice began right now, with Russia keeping everything it got so far, it could be said to have lost, as Ukraine would be permanently revanchist and dedicated to rearmament. In this situation, the best Putin could hope for would be to cripple Ukraine's economy and infrastructure as deep as he could, but that's the most cynical possible endgame. It's also the last nail in the coffin for "pan-Russianism", the whole idea of bringing together Ukrainians and Russians as brothers in one nation. Ukraine has become more of a "real" nation than it ever was, in a sense, Putin "created" Ukraine just like Hitler "created" Israel.
On the other side, Ukraine can hardly be said to have won in this scenario. Maybe a phyrric victory. Western governments and military-industrial complexes are the only ones who might "win".

 >>/49679/
The cause of this war was the Russian fear that a strong Nato force in Ukraine could easily take Moscow or cut Russia off from the Caucuses and black sea due to the relatively close distances and open and flat terrain.

Russia is still going to want to secure her borders, I think originally they probably wanted to annex the Russian speaking regions and install a puppet government which would de facto move their borders to western Ukraine and they might have even invaded Moldova to further secure them. There are mountain ranges all over this area and it gives a large buffer. It also enables Russia to launch an invasion of their own much easier which is what the west is afraid of.

I don't know if this is still their plan, they might annex everything east of the Dnieper and accept that river as a natural barrier as well as accepting the extra breathing room that territory gives them.
Though, I still think they probably do want Odessa and will try to acquire it in this war, as it connects Russia to Moldova and the Russian backed separatists in the region. It also better enables them to project power into the Balkans which has always been an area of Russian interest.

I don't like the modified terms for win and loss because it is arguable and can lead to statements saying that Britain lost WW2 and things like that. In my view the is that wins is the side that dictates terms on the other.
But, I do think this could be good for Ukraine, provided that they can prevent Russian from installing a puppet government. The west is pretty much obliged to rebuild them and accept them into the EU and Nato at this point, this also removes the Pro-Russian population and any pro-Russian sentiment in the Ukrainian population, making integration into the west even easier.


But, I think their could be a very awkward stage at the end of the war if the Russians do push all the way for a total victory. In that case there will be a mobilised Russian army of 300,000 or more sitting on the border with the EU which will scare poo out of the west for a bit.

 >>/49682/
> In my view the is that wins is the side that dictates terms on the other.

I meant. 
In my view the side that wins is the side that dictates terms on the other.

 >>/49682/
> I don't know if this is still their plan
The plan always is achieving as much as possible. And also the final outcome (unless loss) will become the plan, "we wanted this all along".

 >>/49679/
 >>/49682/
I still think that what they aim for is:
- to take as much strategically important places from Ukraine as they can (such as the sea ports);
- and set up a friendly government in the rest of the Ukraine, which is similar to Belarus, what can work as a buffer, an insulating layer where enemy cannot attack from, but they can move troops there and attack the enemy.
This would be the best outcome.
If this is not possible, then keep what they have, and achieve a demilitarized Ukraine. What this would mean? I think it has several layers and possibilities. From an Ukraine empty of any kind of weapons above personal firearms, to an Ukraine where deploying nuclear (and chemical and some other type) weapons is forbidden for anyone (NATO).
But to achieve anything Moscow needs leverage. As it stands now they will might not be able to keep what they have, if things have to come to conclusions, finalize things at the table and peace have to be signed.
So Russia might settle with 2016-2022 style situation with theoretical cease fire, but constant unofficial shelling, shootings, skirmishes. Which could last god knows how long. Meanwhile she'll try to normalize things at home, replace Western Euro suppliers of machines, vehicle parts - either setting up production, or finding new import sources. Has to minimize losses too, can't drain the workforce much constantly. The newly acquired territories will be integrated, while noone will recognize the border changes (similarly to Crimea).

 >>/49682/
> The cause of this war was the Russian fear that a strong Nato force in Ukraine could easily take Moscow or cut Russia off from the Caucuses and black sea due to the relatively close distances and open and flat terrain.
The real problem is, ballistic missiles with nuclear payload has a very short travel time to the Russian core, which is about the same Moscow-Volgograd-Kazan triangle how Szálasi described it in WWII (see the other thread for this).
The Soviet Union had the advantage that all the lands around kept afar such attacks. They could send submarines close to US shores and hit important places quickly there, but it wasn't true in reverse. Now Ukraine would mean a land base.
However with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russia suffered a blow in this too. As far as geopolitics goes, Russia was cornered in, US/NATO forced her to choose minor gains in Ukraine, but made her give up the neutral Skandis.
The US keeps the pressure on and pokes at Russia because she can't let Europe out of her control. And Europe would gain more and more independence with a EU friendly Russia, in fact EU could reach self-sufficiency, and wouldn't need the US's hand up in her ass anymore.

Some changes in the map painting game on the Bakhmutkha front.

Well it's happening. Germany is sending 14 Leopard 2 A6s to Ukraine and allowing third parties to re-export their own Leopard 2s to Ukraine.
It's not certain how many will arrive, so far nations are each pledging about a dozen or so apart from Spain who pledged 53. But we don't know when these are going to arrive and how far this goes, Germany said 3-4 months.

The problem is that while their are many Leopard 2s available to send on paper these tanks are mostly in various forms of storage and are in varying states of repair. Many would need extensive refits before being sent.

 >>/49685/
I agree. But I think demilitarising Ukraine requires a puppet government anyway. Any other government would never allow it as it would mean Russia could re invade or support separatists uprisings at anytime.
Yes, they could try to get western security guarantees in return, but that still is not enough. The west may not intervene if Russia invades Ukraine again in ten years and it's over in a day because they have no army, they may physically not have the time to.

It's possible that this could settle down into a post 2014 Donbass situation as well, hopefully that does not happen though. I don't think anybody wants that, though we don't always get what we want.

 >>/49686/
Yes there is that too.
While the Skandis might be joining Nato for a long time they have almost been de facto Nato anyway. I am not sure if they will allow Nukes on there soil either, I think they said they would not but we will see.

I post this article here, because it's about NATO, military issue.
As the link says, in the author's opinion Hungary's and Turkey's NATO membership should be suspended. I dunno what that would be mean in practice, but I really like this paragraph::
> Neither Orban nor Erdogan is "strengthening their free institutions." On the contrary, both leaders have expanded state media dominance at the expense of truly free discourse. Both have cracked down on dissenting minority voices, politicians and activists, and nongovernmental organizations. Erdogan has thrown hundreds of journalists in prison, some simply because he says they insulted him.
On the other hand Orbán threw 0 journalists into prison. While it's true his pals bought up all the newspapers of the countryside, but most of the major papers - which are actually read by anyone - are in opposition hands (and when the socialists and liberals were in power they were the "government media", along with all the smalltime press of the countryside, noone cared). And opposition politicians are useless drooling retards, but that's not Orbán's fault... and this is another topic anyway.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/turkey-and-hungary-should-be-suspended-from-nato
It's weird because the Washington Examiner is a conservative publication, close to the establishment, and from the similar Faux News, Tucker Carlson is best buddy with Orbán.

Meanwhile Turkish general election is coming in May. A leader (picrel) of a party there claims Turkey can leave NATO in months. Erdog's party say however this topic always comes up during elections, it has no importance.
https://index.hu/kulfold/2023/01/25/torokorszag-nato-kilepes-egyesult-allamok-provokacio/

 >>/49689/
And there are voices that the US might send Abrams. Maybe they can put together enough armor for a brigade.

 >>/49690/
Hmm. I dunno if that easy would be to set up separatists. It worked in the Donbas for the Russian ethnic majority.
Yeah, these kinda demilitarizations sounds like a preparatory steps for invasions.
> I am not sure if they will allow Nukes on there soil either
If they are scared enough? How Germany switched gear, and all the peace loving socialists and greens initiated huge arms buildup and everyone just nodded, because they crapped themselves. They tell em, they need to get their nuke vaccines and booster shots if they want to keep the Russia away.

 >>/49692/
Yes, they are sending 31 Abrams, of new production as well apparently.

 >>/49696/
Long-ish article with photos, and fairly lot of info:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/m1-abrams-and-leopard-2-tanks-will-officially-be-headed-to-ukraine
Basically by March (or at least by a spring offensive) from international contribution they want to set up two German style tank battalions, from about 80 L2s. Germany, Spain, Poland, Finland, and Sweden would donate those. Germany will also provide logistics, ammunition, and maintenance; training will be done in Germany. Basically it's an EU contingent with Ukrainian crew. Maybe even the paint for unit designation or insignia will be given by EU. Well it's like with any other Western provided weapon systems.


Other:
US promises 31 Abrams - this delivery will take months, so perhaps by summer when the L2s were ground down.
France Leclercs and UK Challanger 2s, a company each
Czechia and Northern Hungary sends their Soviet stuff, and receives L2s from Germany.

 >>/49700/
That's not even a Brigade. It really reminds you just how much material goes into modern war and how little we actually have of it.

I don't know how well this will do.
German tanks are better but in a war this scale I don't think it matters much, they will still be ground down even if the crew was superb which is unlikely.
I guess they are hoping to make a decisive spear head.

There is another aspect that i wonder about, These tanks are a lot larger than Soviet tanks and with all the aerial recon both sides have I wonder how much easier to spot they will be.

Colonel Reisner ist hier again:
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=54daqNraMxE
https://youtube.com/watch?v=54daqNraMxE

 >>/49703/
Not that insightful I was hoping for. But couple of good snippets.
Some of his info comes from here:
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications
In the Special Resources section the mentioned articles can be found, and some couple more. Haven't checked the rest of the site.

 >>/49704/
I saw that forces balance thing posted by Euromaiden, it's made by some Ukrainian guy and I don't really trust it. He seemed to use more western sources than normal this time.
It's not that insightful, just a recap of events.

What I did notice was his misuse of the term Operational though. What he descried as Operational was actually strategic.
But that could just be how they refer to it these days.

 >>/49705/
As for the forces balance, I think the manpower is misleading, because it kinda implies the troops on the front, but many are in training. For the Russians, they have troops in the hinterland, or in Belarus. As for the Ukrainians it cannot be known if that personnel is just the ones on the front, or if there is another batch in training.
> misuse of the term Operational
Hmm.
Tactical is the level of a battle, the activity of the troops.
Operational level means the events of the fronts and a theater, the use of units. Several theaters means several operations.
Strategic has nothing to do with the units after they are set up and assigned to a theater. Strategy is the leading and organization of a country so it can wage wars, preparation, manufacturing, training, coordination of theaters, etc.
What do you think they are?

 >>/49706/
Tactical is the actions of the troops in combat itself, the lowest level.
Operational is the level above that, basically what a Division commander or Brigade commander managers.
And Strategic is anything above that. The broader picture which can cover offensives but also bombing campaigns.

 >>/49707/
I see your mistake. Operational can be on brigade or division level, but it starts at the commander of the theater, who can lead even army groups, and ofc air units, but doesn't decides about striking strategic targets (liek factories), which hampers a whole country's ability to wage war - unless the higher ups relegates such decisions to him.
If it's on the front, it's operational. If it's beyond that, it's strategic.
Strategy tends with civilian issues and population too. Operational level is purely military.

 >>/49708/
It seems that you and him are both wrong.

 >>/49709/
There is a reason why this game is titled as The Operational Art of War...

 >>/49710/
I never played it, it looks like might almost be operational, it looks like it verges on the brink between operational and strategic.

 >>/49711/
It's purely operational.
At lowest level the player designates units participating in battles, but the battles itself are just calculated (since they are on tactical level)
At highest level the player gets the units, reinforcements just appear and has no say in what units and how much he gets (since the "production" of units is the task of strategy).
In between the player directs the units, moves them, arranges them, on a theater or operation.

There is also a reason why operations are named as Operation Blahblah (eg. Operation Barbarossa, Op. Avalanche, Op. Desert Storm, etc.). For they are on operation level.

 >>/49712/
That's just nomen-culture, if you look at more modern wars their are plenty of operations that involve 30 guys storming a compound or something, something on a tactical level. And Germans don't even call them operations but they don't call operational warfare operational warfare either, they call it something else but I forget.

Strategy comes form the Greek word Strategos meaning General, a Taxis was a unit of Greek Soldiers, about a Battalion. Tactics itself comes from a word to do with lines or arranging things or something like that.

 >>/49713/
Germans call operational level as operational level. They called Op. Barbarossa as Fall Barbarossa.
Doesn't matter if strategy and tactics are Greek terms, because operational level did not exist till Tukhachevsky, the Father of Operational Art, in the 1930s.

 >>/49714/
They called Operation Barbarossa Unternehmen Barbarossa.
You are thinking of the Case(Fall) colour operations.

Operational warfare always existed it just wasn't thought of as much because it did not play as much of a role. But Mongol warfare was fairly operational.

This isn't going to get us anywhere.

 >>/49716/
Yes, Uternehmen existed, but they used Fall the same.

It did not exist in military thought. We can look back and apply it, we recognize the pattern, but it's anachronistic to suggest back then they knew about it.
Yes. The campaign against Hungary could be a classic example, with the participation of quite a few "divisions" (tumens).

Now that tanks are getting arranged, Ukraine wants fourth generation jets. I assume they have to have pilots, because training those from scratch could take a while... Still, it's not like they can just hop in the new ones, and charge the enemy head first.
Today I had the feeling we are heading for war. It's like in WWII, when US was pushing the equipment to it's non-allies via land lease (and they were already bought up all the wealth of the UK, from the beginning of the war for raw material, equipment, and armament). It's just a matter of time when NATO enters. Or is it? There is still the barrier of the nuclear weaponry, neither side willing to take the step. I think Russia will be pushed hard towards the direction to use tactical nukes by US and EU.

 >>/49741/
A spokesperson for the British PM said the quickest it would take to train somebody to fly a British fighter is 35 months.

I cheeked my own nations time frame on the Defencejobs website.

https://www.defencejobs.gov.au/jobs/air-force/fast-jet-pilot

> Pilot Basic Course (24 weeks)
> Pilot Intermediate Course (36 weeks)

> Introductory Fighter Course – type conversion and advanced flying training (6 months).
> Introductory Fighter Course – tactical flying training (6 months).

And then after that you do additional training on the Aircraft you are assigned to.

> F-35A Lightning II (No. 2 Operational Conversion Unit). The 6-month OPCON for Lightning II is conducted at RAAF Base Williamtown (just outside of Newcastle).
> F/A-18F Super Hornet (No. 82 Wing Training Flight). The 6-month OPCON for Super Hornet is conducted at RAAF Base Amberley (just outside of Brisbane).
> EA-18G Growler (No. 6 Squadron). Growler OPCON training takes 11 months and is conducted in Washington State, USA by the US Navy, with bridging training on return to Australia conducted at RAAF Base Amberley (just outside of Brisbane).

So about two and a half years, so similar. Maybe they could train a pilot in 6 months if he was already a fighter pilot, then he would just need do the OPCON for the plane itself.
However I don't know if they would let you fly combat ops after that, it does say 'Once you complete your OPCON, you will be a fully qualified FJP ready to contribute to the application of air power and the defence of Australia.' but I don't know how literal that is, you would think there would be more on the job training.

But anyway.

I don't think planes will help them much. They would be stuck doing what the Russian planes are doing, lobbing long range radar guided missiles from well inside Russian held territory at Ukrainian planes. If Russia can't operate in Ukrainian airspace due to Ukrainian AA then there is no way a few F-16s are operating anywhere near Russian airspace.

They could launch air launched cruise missiles but then you just have a HIMARS that flies and if the west is nervous about what range ammunition it gives HIMARs then it won't give anything that great to any F-16s either.

So planes would help but not that much.

I'm going to post training times for other roles as well just to give an idea of things.


Most Army positions require basic recruit training.

> Army Recruit Course
> Duration: Approximately 12 weeks.
> Location: Kapooka, Wagga Wagga, NSW.

> During training, you will take part in physical training, weapon handling and shooting, first aid, drill and field craft. You'll be challenged both mentally and physically.

In some cases it might be assumed that Ukrainian soldiers already had done an equivalent kind of training.

Infantry

> Army Recruit Course
> Duration: Approximately 12 weeks.

> Infantry Course
> Duration: Approximately 3 months. 

So 6 months or 3 if just Infantry but as it's the most basic position I'll assume 6 months.


Artillery Operator(we use M117s)

> Army Recruit Course
> Duration: Approximately 12 weeks.

> Basic Combat Communications Course
> Duration: Approximately 1 week.
> Royal Australian Artillery Common Induction Training
> Duration: Approximately 3 weeks.
> Gun Grade 1 Course
> Duration: Approximately 6 weeks.

So 22 weeks if they are fresh, 10 weeks for just artillery. Which is actually a bit less than it takes to train Infantry, surprising.

https://www.defencejobs.gov.au/jobs/army/artillery-operator

Armoured vehicle crew

> Army Recruit Course
> Duration: Approximately 12 weeks.

> Armoured Crewman Common Course: 71 days 
> Following completion of the common training you will begin your vehicle specific training which will take between 21 and 41 days to complete on either tank, APC or the CRV. The vehicle you are assigned to will be dependant on the service needs of the Armoured Vehicle Crew Regiments.

So 14 to 28 weeks.

https://www.defencejobs.gov.au/jobs/army/armoured-vehicle-crew

Officers are another matter entirely.

Infantry officer

There is no name for this course it's just the basic officer training.
> Location of course: Royal Military College, Duntroon Canberra, ACT
> Duration of course: 18 months

> Royal Australian Infantry Regimental Officer Basic Course (ROBC)
> Duration: 11 Weeks

So about 21 months.

https://www.defencejobs.gov.au/jobs/army/infantry-officer

Artillery Officer.

> Location of course: Royal Military College, Duntroon Canberra, ACT
Duration of course: 18 months

> Royal Australian Artillery Regimental Officer Basic Course: 12Weeks

So about 21 months again.

https://www.defencejobs.gov.au/jobs/army/artillery-officer

Armoured Officer

> Location of course: Royal Military College, Duntroon Canberra, ACT
Duration of course: 18 months

> RAAC Regimental Officer Basic Course (ROBC): 26 Weeks (approx)

About 24 months.

https://www.defencejobs.gov.au/jobs/army/armoured-officer

So it's going to take the Ukrainians 6 months to train a Soldier or artillery man providing they do it properly(heh) but it will take 24 months to train an officer, just a lieutenant at that. And then it would take years to raise an officer higher than that.

 >>/49749/
I'll read what you wrote, but first.
Coincidentally yesterday found data about training-retraining about WWII Hungarian SS volunteers. They were either trained soldiers, veterans, reservists, or fresh civvies from 17 yo. (they also might had experience with paramilitary hierarchical structures, or were military schools etc.)
The three companies of Kampfgruppe Deák started the training on 1944 August 25. 2 consisted of trained soldiers, who needed a retraining for German weaponry, and the third fresh recruits started from 0. It isn't clear what kind of equipment they got besides the usual infantry weapons. By Sept. 21. with the exception of the greenhorns the rest of the unit reached an acceptable level of readiness.
The SS Ski-Battalion started the training in Neuhammer on 1944. December 7. They got MP44, MG-42, Kar 98K, 81mm GrW 34, 7.5cm GebG 36, plus the specialized equipment of the ski units. The training went on till the start of February, when a volunteer kampfgruppe had to be assembled from them, and sent to the front; it is also noted that they used 7,5 Pak.
The SS-Brigade Ney started the training and re-training at the beginning of 1944 November. The necessary readiness level was reached by Christmas (and were fighting from January 1).
An SS-Sturmjäger Regiment got a 2 weeks "accelerated" retraining before sent to the front.
I'll look up the two SS-divisions sometimes. The first will be more interesting because they should have got heavy weaponry, like sturmgeschützes and such. I think the second never got any equipment and had to leave the training camp on foot.
So all in all these units got a month of retraining for infantry weapons basically.

 >>/49745/
You cheeky basted.
Hmm. But putting a Ukrainian uniform on a volunteer Western pilot can be quite quick. If there can be volunteer infantrymen, why not pilots?

 >>/49746/
Maybe they preparing an offensive against Russia proper. Now that would be hilarious. From Russian viewpoint the fights are already done on their narod already, so why not.

 >>/49747/
 >>/49748/
To be honest in peacetime they learn a bunch of filler stuff they don't need. But officer training is definitely something that can't be cut that short. And the Ukrainians had to suffer large losses in middle management. There had to be lotsa field promotions by judgments on practical basis.

 >>/49753/
> Hmm. But putting a Ukrainian uniform on a volunteer Western pilot can be quite quick. If there can be volunteer infantrymen, why not pilots?
Pilots should be the easiest roles to fill with foreigners if they only have to fly low-risk missions. But larger numbers of Western servicemen deaths would be a political headache and impossible to hide, so they're not using them for the new Western tanks. I guess those Leopards will just replace Ukraine's armored reserves, freeing up existing Ukrainian tanks for offensives.

 >>/49753/
I tried to find training times for various armies in WW2 but I could not find what I wanted.
There was some from the US but it was from Reddit and also seems to be not just training soldiers but building entire divisions. On the Germany army numerous sites would say that soldiers received 16 weeks of training and then went on to receive additional training but did not go into how long that took and if everybody did that.

But I found a postwar interview with a German colonel that said this.

> You have stressed the importance of decision-making ability among juniors. How do you train for this?

> You must let young officers make decisions. They must be given the chance to make on-the-spot decisions, through wargames, that is, terrain models and map exercises. When a young soldier makes a decision, you must praise him. He might not have found the perfect or right solution, but he made a decision. Praise at this point must be forthcoming. You must do this again and again. That is how we give our young officers and NCOs confidence.

Oh yeah, here is the link.

https://mca-marines.org/blog/gazette/german-training-and-tactics/

 >>/49754/
> larger numbers of Western servicemen deaths
They mine out a badly burnt and maimed corps from crashed airplane noone will question him of his identity. Just give him an Ukro ID.

 >>/49755/
Wartime recruitment and training processes are the closest parallel.
> Decision.
How Carm said in Teh Sopranos. A bad decision is better than no decision.

So I looked up the re-training of the SS divisions  >>/49751/ and I think conclusions cannot be drawn. It seems they got training in walking formations, German language courses, and ideological "enlightening" in abundance, but very little else, especially combat training. Officers made complaints on several occasions. What they could do is to study the equipment they got, but for example for the heavy equipment (artillery pieces) they did not get ammo. So they could look at them hard at least.

Now the fights reached H-32 at Bakmut, and Wagner tries to move forward in the north too, while keep the pressure on from the east.
If I were them I would mix up the main direction of the attack, and put weight on different places in different times. Well if it's possible to move about units. And the footmen get more familiar with the terrain and the features, at one place so maybe it's not a good idea to move them elsewhere. I dunno.

Big earthquake in Turkey and Syria, the rebel areas was hit hard (and Aleppo). It's time for SAA to move in! And help in solidarity...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/2/6/many-dead-as-powerful-quake-shakes-turkey-syria

 >>/49761/
Some historic structures were destroyed as well, like a Roman fort and an old mosque. Sad.

Ukrainians are 100% sure they'll get the F-16s. In fact Ukraine Ministry of Defense advisor Yuriy Sak said, that short of nuclear weapons they can get 'em all. It's fun they gave up their nuclear weapons which could have ensured the "sanctity" of their borders, in exchange for NATO's insurances.
Anyway Ukrainian officials say interesting stuff.
Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said they have to change their whole air force to F-16s and have to set up at least 5 air brigades (translated from Hungarian, not sure what would be the proper term, and how Ukraine organizes it's air fleet, maybe they meant wing or division).
Zelenskiy visited EU, he chimed in too (quoted from the English article):
> “This day has become very fruitful and I’m grateful to the Prime Minister for understanding our needs and for his helpful advice.” The President also suggested that Ukrainian pilots could be trained in a matter of months, rather than the three to five years previously claimed by the UK Government.
> in a matter of months
Maybe they operate on the survival of the fittest basis. They set up 5 air brigades in months, and the pilots who stay alive after the first fights are gonna be damn good pilots in a size of a squadron. Or less.

https://inews.co.uk/news/we-havent-got-any-fking-jets-give-doubts-over-how-rishi-sunak-help-ukraine-air-power-2137740
https://index.hu/kulfold/2023/02/09/haboru-oroszorszag-ukrajna-nyugat-vadaszgepek-szallitasa-brit-miniszter-nyilatkozata/
https://index.hu/kulfold/2023/02/01/haboru-orosz-ukran-konfliktus-harci-repulogepek-szallitas-nagy-britannia-litvania-lengyelorszag-egyesult-allamok/

One busy day on the map.
Whole front seems to be very active, while I made no pics of that, even at Kherson.
Russians mounted an attack at Zaporozhia.
At Donetsk Avdiivka is getting encircled, N-NW from the city. And to the SW, rare sight that tank icon. Lotsa fighting vehicles were destroyed. I assume they tried to force a breakthrough. I think they managed some gains, have to consult with older maps (or step back a couple of days on the livemap).
Considerable changes at Bakhmut. In the SW the fights are at the H-32 road, and in the NW they reached the M-03, some of those outskirt villages are getting encircled. There is one lifeline still leading into town, but I think It can be shot in, probably they do it for a while now.
To the NE from here, south of Bilohorovka, another patch of gains.
Will they hold out until spring offensive? Will there be a spring offensive?

Saved these photos of the destroyed fighting vehicles near Donetsk.

And this drone shot down by Belaroosian border guards. With anti-drone gun. What kinda gun is that?

 >>/49773/
> What kinda gun is that?
Based on the pistol grip in his right hand, I'd say it's some kind of Kvertus. Probably a later version of the thing pictured here: https://www.unmannedairspace.info/counter-uas-systems-and-policies/ukrainian-company-kvertus-technology-develops-long-range-anti-drone-rifle/
Doesn't look like any of the Australian, French, or Indian designs.

 >>/49774/
Kvertus is Ukrainian no? The report said it was used by Belarusians against Ukrainian drone.
Now that would be an interesting turn of event if Ukros passed the gun, or a version of it to the Belo/russians. Media tries to depict them as a unified country but they are divided, and all think differently. Even not Russian speakers.

 >>/49771/
The situation in Bahkmut doesn't look good. I would not be surprised if they withdrew soon, but then we don't know if they intent to stay and fight or not.

 >>/49776/
I gave it some thought and I would be surprised if they withdrew.
It's inconvenient for the Russians to siege it, keep it surrounded, prevent attempts of breaking out. They would be jumbled up around while HUIMARS-es could pepper them. It would cost them time, people and resources.
Meanwhile pro-Ukrainian propaganda would hail the besieged, could make good use of the heroes, could push for the fighter jets. They could claim if West supported them the defenders of Bakhmut wouldn't be in this trouble. Just label pro-Russian those who question the necessity of the human sacrifice, that would shut them up.
So there are many pros to leave the troops there.

 >>/49775/
Apparently Groza also have a drone gun, so maybe it is a descendant of this? https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/belarus-unveils-groza-p2-mobile-counter-uav-system

 >>/49780/
Could be. I assume the electronics can be put into any kind of plastic box.

Another Wagner guy killed with a hammer.

> Dmitry Yakushchenko born in 1978 a native of the Ukrainian SSR, committed robbery and murder in the Crimea, was sentenced to 19 years.

> Having received an offer to atone for guilt in the Wagner PMC unit, he agreed, and after 4 days he went over to the side of the enemy. In an interview with the Ukrainian side, he said that he had originally planned a betrayal and expressed the hope that Crimea would be returned to Ukraine.

> While in Dnepropetrovsk, he received a blow to the head, and woke up in the basement, where he was told that "he would be judged."

It's interesting, it implies that Wagner has a network within Ukraine capable of doing stuff like this.

 >>/49783/
Huh? Apparently they are saying he is fine and was not killed now.

> Dmitry Yakushchenko turned out to be alive — Prigozhin's press service posted a video with a PMC fighter

> Dmitry Yakushchenko, whose video of his “execution” was distributed today by Telegram channels, turned out to be alive. In the footage published by Prigozhin's press service, he says that, having been captured, he said "everything."

> He claims that the only way to survive in captivity was to just say what he said to Ukrainian journalists. In particular, in a video of Kyiv propaganda, he stated that Crimea is Ukraine, and he himself fled the battlefield. As a result, according to Yakushchenko, he was able to convey important information after captivity to the leadership of the PMC. The press service of Prigozhin, in turn, called him "well done."

 >>/49785/
 >>/49785/
Wait. So he was a Crimean resident who committed robbery and murder, then he was released to serve in Wagner PMC, then defected to the Ukrainians, then was captured and "executed" by Wagner, but in reality he switched sides again and now ratted out the Ukros, and now he got a pat on his shoulder?
Btw this news also gives some insight what kind of inmates were allowed to serve in the army instead of the sentence.

In other news:
Stoltenberg said Russia started a new offensive. I don't know what he means, for now it looks like everything continues as it did. Maybe he means the new troops finally arrived to the fronts. Maybe that southern attacks at Zaporjoe. Also NATO will increase ammo production and stockpiling.
UK defence ministry says Russia fortifies the gained land, chiefly in Zaporjoe and Lugansk. Well those are the main directions an Ukrainian attack can be expected. Therefore they should launch their spring offensive directly towards Moscow, I say.
Our foreign minister will visit Belarus.
US warns her citizens to leave Russia, France advises Frenchmen to keep clear from Belarus.

 >>/49784/
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/110v9zq/new_wagner_sledgehammer_execution_translation/
he must have a thick skull

 >>/49786/
Well they stopped recruiting from prisons now apparently. Maybe they have enough.

 >>/49787/
Maybe it was fake. I don't know I didn't watch it, I really don't want to see something like that.
But it is weird, not sure what to believe.

The Russians captured an Australian M113.

 >>/49786/
Fighting has been picking up for the last few days as seen by footage like you posted here  >>/49772/
, I'm not sure that I would call it an offensive yet though.

 >>/49789/
Our taxes pay for all this equipment and then the government just gives it all away without consulting the people.
That said, Australia hasn't had an actual offensive combat role since Vietnam. Most Australian Army resources during the Iraq and Afghan wars went to building schools and mosques for the locals, and the few SAS guys that did do the warrior thing are now on trial for made up war crimes.

 >>/49788/
> not sure what to believe.
Fog of informational war.

 >>/49789/
> United with Ukraine
Is Australia in the war? Why write such things on these? Thought it will be a nice gesture? Overwhelming majority of Ukrainians cannot into English.
Anyway capturing western equipment is inevitable. 
Wonder if they'll catch a Leo or an Abrams. Are there much trade secrets in these Russians don't know about?

 >>/49790/
> are now on trial for made up war crimes.
Oh god.

 >>/49791/
> Oh god.
It's all highly embarrassing. One of the most prominent figures was originally awarded the Victoria Cross for his actions. The VC is the highest military award you can receive in the Commonwealth (kind of like Seppo's Medal of Honor) and traditionally the vast majority of recipients die while earning it.

 >>/49791/
> Is Australia in the war?
and no, our government is just jumping on the bandwagon and handing over equipment we don't have the balls to use ourselves

 >>/49792/
What a shitshow.

 >>/49793/
Well I know that. I meant that "united" thing.

 >>/49789/
It's also interesting the amount of rust on that 50 cal barrel. It would have been handed over blued/blacked a couple of months ago. Stupid fucking ukranian orks let it rust.

 >>/49795/
or we gave them APCs with no armaments. No real way of knowing, as the Australian Press are dumb and don't note such details.

 >>/49796/
> In all, the Australian government’s military assistance package consists of over AUD 285 million worth of support, including Bushmasters, M777 howitzers; anti-armor weapons, ammunition, unmanned aerial systems and a range of personal equipment.

 >>/49796/
We have this story, kind of an urban legend, but barely anyone knows about it, I can imagine it's true it happened how it happened, but can be made up.
As the story goes before we joined NATO their delegations of exberts visited us occasionally. They also took a look at our airplane park, and they acknowledged we have those Su-22 fighter-bombers.
< Oh no!
Our retards thought.
< They will think we aren't a peaceful nation who only has a military for defensive purposes!
So came the great idea to deceive the veteran NATO commanders and theoretics:
> No, those are recon aircrafts!
But we can see the pylons for the bombs under the wings! - came the reply.

 >>/49790/
We are gearing our army up for that kind of thing again though, that's what the new IFVs, APCs, SPGs and the amphibious helicopter docks are for.
So we are replacing the obsolete M113, but still, that's for the regular infantry, the reserves could still use something like that.

 >>/49795/
Huh, I didn't notice that.

Well, Bernd, here it comes!

Lively activity at Bilohorovka.

 >>/49800/
 >>/49802/
oh noes. More war :(

 >>/49761/
Speaking of Turkey, where's Turkey bernd now? He ok? He got harmed? :(

 >>/49803/
> oh noes. More war :(
Yeah, they can go on for a while, probably this year still.

> where's Turkey bernd now?
Isn't he the one posting on bernd.group?
> He ok?
Hopefully.
> He got harmed?
I doubt it. He lives elsewhere.

How much the NATO spent on Ukraine, by AlJazeera.
With illustration of NATO expansion.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/15/infographic-how-much-have-nato-members-spent-on-ukraine

Weapon list copypasted form too:
- Westland Sea King helicopters
- IRIS-T air infrared-guided air defence systems
- Javelin anti-tank missiles
- Howitzers
- Switchblade drones
- High mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS)
- National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
- T-72 tanks and missiles
- Next-generation light anti-tank weapons (NLAWs)
- Multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)
- Caesar self-propelled guns
- Leopard 1 and 2 tanks
And ofc small arms and ammo. And I don't see the infantry fighting vehicles on the list. Plus the Leo 2 have not sent yet, so this is a bit of mess. Well they noted "these include"
Would be good to know the actual amount. And the price. Have the cost reached Ukraine's annual GDP yet?

 >>/49802/
I wonder where they can push. Northern Luhansk would hamper Russian logistics but that's it. Counterattacking the Russian pincers around Bakhmut would probably end badly, previous offensives have only succeeded in lightly guarded areas. The best they could hope would be prolonging the bloodbath inside the city, where casualty ratios are certainly in the Russian favor now that it's hard to get reinforcements and supplies in. They could also attack somewhere else in the Donbass, but it's likely too fortified. And striking in the south towards Melitopol would potentially be the war-winning offensive, but can they pull it off? The terrain is like Kherson, which the Russians could hold at a cost, but unlike Kherson there's no easy way to interdict Russian logistics. Russia can "win" this war into a stalemate if they're not stupid.

 >>/49817/
> Have the cost reached Ukraine's annual GDP yet?
The cost increases as fast as Ukraine's GDP plummets, they'll meet sooner or later.

 >>/49827/
Colonel Reisner mentioned two possible directions. From south of Kharkov into Lugansk oblast - the northenmost blue arrow on your map. And from Zaporozhia to the south, in Melitopol, Berdiansk, and Mariupol direction, and further down to the Azov-strait, striking the bridge, maybe creating a bridgehead around there too, this would isolate the Russian troops in Crimea and Kherson.
> previous offensives have only succeeded in lightly guarded areas.
Indeed. Now for any offensive Ukraine would pay high price, I think as well.

That bloke who made a review of The Best in Hell Brbernd posted has bunch of videos about the Ukraine conflict. Was his channel shared here on /kc/ already?
Anyway in this video below he makes the good point that when the media informs us about debates about sending certain weapons systems, ie:
Zelensky:
> We want this weapon!
West:
< No
Zelensky:
> We want this weapon!
West:
< Ok
Then it's already a done deal and Ukrainian crew is already getting trained on those, and the articles are just for us to prepare us for the fact.
So right now Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly the F-16, and land crew to do the maintenance, both in large numbers, for probably months now.
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=N6tjIOfbuWI
https://youtube.com/watch?v=N6tjIOfbuWI

 >>/49856/
He makes quite a few good points in that video.
Like maintenance of Western tanks has to be done not in Ukraine (in Poland), because those places would get bombarded to hell by the Russians, with the trained maintenance crews, whom are slow to replace.
Also added screenshot of an article (The Telegraph) saying a massive arms factory must be built in Poland (I bet they already built it).

Mediazona (working with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers) publishes Russian confirmed casualties. The confirmation is done by:
> review publicly available reports including social media posts by relatives, reports in local media, and statements by the local authorities.
They note that the actual death toll is much higher.
The page is interesting, they note high ranking officers too.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

Am just posting this as curiosity, conclusions can be drawn from the details of the data they provide, but not from the whole thing, because it isn't the whole thing.

Did some surfing and from this guy here  >>/49856/ I went to this bloke, Willy OAM:
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=jr8oLETlSbI
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jr8oLETlSbI
Pro-Ukrainian narrative, or maybe we could contrast the two youtubers as con vs. soclib with American standards (neither of them are American), at least for the stance about the war.
In the video above he assesses US is preparing to give long range weapons (rockets and fighter jets) to Ukraine, and says to him it would make the most sense to use them to limit Russia's capabilities to wage war: attacking Russia herself. It is aligned to my idea, to strike into Russia with the spring campaign  >>/49786/

Where the shells are falling.
Russians can shoot basically anything beyond Bakhmut.
Fights were in Yahidne (just N of Bakhmut) too in past couple of days, and deep in the eastern suburbs of the town.
Still the question is if they can or want to pull out the troops. There are quite a few thousand in there. Was seven brigade or something that defended the town on paper. Next important place is Chasiv Yar, there too units are stacked by the Ukrainian command; and the canal meandering to the N, NW from there seems to be the next formidable defensive line before the chain of towns from Slovians to the conglomerate at Zalizne.

 >>/49863/
According to Military Land there are 6 Brigades plus some other units in Bahkmut and the suburbs. It's starting to look like it might be getting to late to leave.

Bam. Did not take long.

 >>/49864/
Depends if we count that infantry brigade at Ivanonvske or not. A push to the H-32 road could nudge them into the Bakhmut cauldron.

Posting for later read.
Also noteworthy quote:
> the conclusion that the odds are stacked against Ukraine to be able to field an effective force, possibly any time before this fall.
So maybe the tank battalions were assembled during March, or even a brigade with both modern western armor, and some Soviet models, half/half, but they can just fart around, not participate in ambitious offensives. They could gather XP in smaller clashes, until Abrams arrive as well.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/01/ukraines-new-m1-abrams-and-leopard-2-tanks-are-no-silver-bullet/

Lemme tell you, Bernd, what will be abundant after the war:
- maimed men, missing arms, legs
- violent, armed criminals, and criminal organizations
- mercs, mercs everywhere

 >>/49867/
Hopefully the EU and west can deal with the first two, that will be part of rebuilding it.

But, I do wonder what will happen with Wagner after the war. Not only are they increasing in size and resources but now that Russia is sanctioned they really have no reason not to send them adventuring all around the world once the war ends.

 >>/49868/
There is Mali and other places where already doing some stuff there.
Heh, there is little news what's going on in Mali specifically. The Ukrainian war is just a red herring to distract the attention, that's where the main action is happening,
Another idea. Previously I thought France abandons Mali, or even the Malian leadership asked the Russians for help instead, since the French were ineffective. Now maybe it was the French who asked Russia/Wagner to help out and do the dirty deeds - they can't do - done dirt cheap. It could be part of a cooperation between France and Russia, which is the part of the dream of the independent European Empire, another center of power in geopolitics, which isn't USA's client. If Russia and rest of Europe could find the common voice, Europe wouldn't need the US anymore.
Thinking this further, maybe for Europe Putin's Russia is too independent and obstinate, plus deals too closely with unacceptable foreign players like Iran and China. Plugging out this system, and managing to install a softer one might be another strategy, basically playing the US and Putin against each other behind the scenes, just to step forward in the end and get rid of US' leash while globbing Russia in. Lands, lands everywhere for French, Dutch, and German farmers, endless supply of oil and gas and Uranium, wood and water, and god knows what riches, no more dependence on US and dirty Araps.

Russians took Yahidne.
I mean I understand they want to slow down Russian advance, but why is it a bad idea to pull out those several thousand men from Bakhmut and put them into the next defensive position? How is it feasible to let them killed and/or captured?
Hold every centimeter is WWII German level idiotism.
Also it seems Wagner has an idea how to capture these villages which serve as centers of defense, although besides main defensive lines might not be well fortified, and after the breakthrough at Soledar the line might have not been solidified, it's a constant drawing back by Ukrainians. Which also makes me wonder of they can draw back elsewhere, why not from Bakhmut?
The more they tried to hold it, the more importance it gets, and can give a morale boost when it gets captured. Or a morale hit for the Ukrainians when it gets lost.

 >>/49870/
I think that Bahkmut and Vulehdar are locations that the Russians aim to take before launching an offensive and that's part of why we have seen an increase in the efforts there.

So maybe the Ukrainians are hoping if they hold it long enough the Russians will not be able to launch an offensive or they will be better prepared for it or the Russians will get frustrated and launch it early and it will be less effective.

All right, a bit of speculation.
It looks like Russians aren't just encircling Bakhmut, but already planning the next move on Chasiv Yar, they'll need to envelope it anyway.
So here it goes.
The next (and only) defensible line before the chain of towns from Sloviansk to that conglomeration is that zig-zagging canal, with Chasiv Yar as main bastion. Two main roads are leading through the area: the M-03 in the north, the H-32 in the south; and a railway line is running through the town.
Attempting an encirclement on Chasiv Yar from the south is hard to imagine for me. First, it has to be launched from beyond the southern line of the canal, where Russians don't have a stable foothold (it is contested on a different map if they are there at all), and the attacking forces can be counter-attacked from the sides both from Kostiantyinvka and Chasiv Yar. I believe the could move the front up to the H-32 or at least close enough so they can hold the road under constant fire.
For me it seems much more feasable to move along the M-03 and onto the canal north of Chasiv Yar, there is an "elbow" they could attack from the north and south, at Novomarkove they could establish a bridgehead, and then on the other side of the canal they could push south onto Chasiv Yar and the railroad line.
On pic 4 there are the approximate area they would take.

 >>/49869/
>  If Russia and rest of Europe could find the common voice, Europe wouldn't need the US anymore

One of the main things the US achieved with this war is to prevent anything like that and controll the european countries even more than before.

 >>/49873/
Those who listen to the whistle today, tomorrow they might not, and ofc others come with time. The war has not ended yet, still much water will flow down the Danube. Circumstances change, players change.
And ofc, there is the Theory of Power. Those who has no power wants power over themselves, and those who have power over themselves want to exert it over others, those who have power over others want to keep it. The EU might be bitch of US today, but they'll grab the opportunity when it offers itself and will try to be masters of themselves. Right now the time is not right Europe can only do with Russia, but the war might change that as I wrote in that post.
Ofc the US will try to keep this marriage happening, and will keep driving wedges between the EU and Russia.
God knows what will happen.

Apparently Hungarian is used to deliver messages in the Ukrainian conflict because Russians don't understand them.
The Wikipee article cites two sources, one is an article of a Hungarian news portal, it needs login to see the full article so can't tell where they get their info, the other is a facebook post in Russian/Ukrainian, a short video of a soldiers talking over radio in Hungarian, and a comment with explanation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Code_talker#Hungarian
A short quote from the facebook post:
> Угорська мова - найкраща для шифрування на війні. Військові США в другу світову захищали радіопереговори, використовуючи мову Навахо - японці її перекласти не могли.
> Hungarian is the best language for encryption in war. In the Second World War, the US military protected radio communications using the Navajo language - the Japanese could not translate it.
The rest of the comment has a nice quip saying that while the Ukrainian soldiers communicate and do what has to be done, the Russians have to send the intercepted conversation to Moscow and then to Budapest and wait for Szijjártó (our Minister of Foreign Affairs) decipher it for them, it's already too late.

 >>/49875/
kek
> In the Second World War, the US military protected radio communications using the Navajo language
I instantly thought of Navajo as well

 >>/49876/
Well, now if someone says...
> learning Hungarian, what is it good for
...then here you go.

Quite the fly ins, north and south.
Russian Ministry of Defence says they were targeting "civilian infrastructure facilities". This claim is curious since Russia did target civilian infrastructure facilities (as a response to the Kerch-bridge incident), an attempt to blackout Ukraine. Attacking civilian infrastructure is a war crime, so I read somewhere.

 >>/49870/
Steinerenko's counteroffensive will turn the tide.

 >>/49881/
Had to search that. Funny.
Although Ukraine did two offensives, maybe three if we count the one when Russians withdrew from the north.
At this point I doubt they'll do anything major in the spring. Maybe with the Polish Leo's they'll do try a counter-push at Bakhmut, but Western armor is vulnerable the same to infantry AT weapons, tanks, artillery, drones, rockets.

I thought we could do with a topographical map, found here:
https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-jmrgp/Ukraine/
The elevation is in feet... the lowest at the Donetsk in the north is at ~50 meters, the highest in the SE of the map is at ~305 meters.
Bakhmut town center is maybe at ~80 m
Chasiv Yar is around 250 m
This town seems more defensible for me than Bakhmut, which advantage is laying at the Bakhmut river and it acts as a center for roads and railroad. Now as the M-03 is lost, and the railway junction is in Russian control, the importance basically vanished.
So Chasiv Yar is more like a collection of smaller settlements bordering each other, at an elevation with woods screening around. From the north and south there are mine/quarry things too. Also has the canal from the east, and some bodies of water spotting the landscape.
From the topographical map we can know that the canal meanders more or less on top of the ridge towards the north.
I added couple of screenshots of Google maps. There is no street view just uploaded photos. We can see these aren't hard to climb mountains just pleasantly rolling hills, with occasional difficult spots. Nevertheless these hills can be transformed to the advantage of the defender.

 >>/49885/
I think the Ukrainians will be in a bit of a bind as to what they should do next.

Chasiv Yar is of a reasonable size and on elevation so would make sense to turn into a stronghold but I think it would be fairly easy to cut off. There isn't much else in that area to fortify so the Russians could gain the heights and advance from the north and south(they already have the southern heights) and it's possible they could also use artillery to gain fire-control over the roads if they do not directly take them, they have more freedom to manoeuvrer around Chasiv Yar.

But, if they allow they allow the Russians to take the heights well that has obvious issues for the next defensive line as well. It will be much easier for the Russians to gain fire superiority over the Ukrainians and to be able to fire on Ukrainian roads with direct fire if the lay of the land is right. So they might be able to cut off a part of the line with direct fire while they also use that elevation to support an attack on the area.

 >>/49886/
I really like the batteries.
I might draw up the current situation where the front line runs at the moment.
> Chasiv Yar is of a reasonable size
The town and the villages next to it are way larger anything taken by the Wagner since Popasna. And Bakhmut still larger (and still holding). Neither will be a joke.

Something liek this. It is utterly wrong NE from Soledar, but ignore that.

Well, the Ukrainians blew a bridge to the north road and the southern road is also fairly close to being cut off if it's not operationally cut of already.

Also here is an image of the same area from Google earth. I wanted to see if there were roads not marked on the map, there are some country roads though in some places they may just be paths through somebody's field(some are hard to see from this image, you have to zoom in). The ground looks fairly flat and open as well.
So it's hard to say if they can still get out or not, I think in small numbers with light equipment they still can for now, maybe, that's if it's not so flat and open that they can be seen from either side. But then it's also hard to say how many are still even in the city.

 >>/49892/
There is one road in the south through Ivanivske, and another in the north at Khromove. In the latter direction the road runs up to a hill perpendicularly to the ridge's direction, and after it gets up the hill the road turns towards Chasiv Yar. One can see into Bakhmut from the hill, there was a video somewhere they drove down towards the town in a car maybe. Both the hillside and down in the flat valley bottom open fields everywhere with some treelines and patches of trees.
Here's photo from Google maps. Was taken at that dirtbike racetrack (?) next to Khromove. Looking to SE here. The road runs on the left on the photo into Bakhmut.

 >>/49892/
Heh, on the livemap they show an explosion right at the road at Khromove.

 >>/49892/
Okay, you noted that explosion as the fist thing, it was the bridge.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=209oNfpuI0k
Didn't see this being posted here. Its a 10 minutes go pro footage of two ukrainian guys fighting against dozen of russians and an IFV. Well only one ukro does the shooting, the other is just giving him more weapons. Pretty insane tbh. The russians are literally only few meters away. One dies on camera so if youre sensitive for this kind of stuff you've been warned. Theres an RPG round visible hitting next to the filming guy but it didnt explode. As far as I know they both survived this skirmish.