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 >>/25738/
Thanks. I think we're mostly on the same page, but my comments may not have been clearly stated.

> so it would take many years, minimum 4-5 to just get it running smoothly again.

> its more complicated than people might think. its way easier to mine gold.

Agreed, they're screwed. It will be cheaper to repair the infrastructure than to start from scratch. It's still going to be expensive to get the oil moving again.
But, my point was almost all other nations don't want to see Venezuela recover its oil industry any time soon at all. The world is flooded with oil at the moment.

> I dont think china cares that much. they have better sources more closely, indonesia, Kazakhstan, russia etc. Venezuela is far away.

Agreed, it's not their primary source. They view Venezuela as a nice little opportunity for an extra source on top of all those other places. Competition is good! Also good to diversify and have some backup too. China will not go to war for Venezuela, nor invest more than the absolute minimum to suck up a wee bit more oil for a better price than they might otherwise be forced to occasionally pay elsewhere.

> ukraine is far more important than venezuela from a geopolitical standpoint.

Also agreed. But, it's nice to fuck around with the other guy on his own turf when you can. Venezuela's an opportunity to repay the USA for its support of Ukraine, sanctions, etc. Russia's not going to go to war over it, although it's hard to see what they could do to provoke a war here. Hilariously, America's not interested. The American attitude has the Russians spilling and slipping over their vodka in astonishment! Where has Monroe buggered off to?

> it is easy to shit on venezuela but I see the blueprint for the world there. austerity will come im sure of it.

Yeah, it's a nightmare. Everyone is willing to put in tiniest efforts only to the extent of what they can first absolutely prove to profit from. It's not all about money exactly, but it's like everyone's foreign policy here is being run by short term accounting firms.
As for this being a model of the future of the world, I'm not sure what it portends. I am sure I can hear the ghost of Nixon screaming at us all: "THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?"
Maduro's regime, besides no longer providing day-to-day services like law enforcement and healthcare, doesn't even have a true monopoly on violence: though he is the nominal highest authority of his "Holy Roman Empire" he is in fact very weak, not only in the sense that he relies on foreign puppetmasters (of which Cuba can nearly boast of running an occupation force) but also that he has to delegate power to a myriad of entities: coletivos, paramilitaries (including Colombian militias), cartels, local police and army units which largely fund themselves through drug trade (though even Maduro's family members take part in that) and extortion of the population. As they can find resources of their own they're not fully reliant on Maduro. The forces which do rely on Caracas and are directly subordinate to it in an official, bureaucratic hierarchy can't supress the population on their own. But they can harass lesser forces and Maduro can give or retract the state's blessing. So an arrangement develops in which those local entities are given a free hand but help Maduro remain in power. This has a lot in common with feudalism. It's also what happened in Syria to a large extent, where Assad is little more than a figurehead over a patchwork of militias.
In everyday life, too, Venezuela strides towards the past. Electrified, consumerist, interconnected society is gone. Internal trade has shrunk to a minimum, barter is common and production methods become ever more primitive. If anything, Maduro, like Mugabe, should be an idol to primitivists.

Chavismo doesn't rule like Lee Kuan Yew or Macron and its mindset completely breaks with the centrist consensus in the power centers of the West. It rejects any pretension to technocracy, careful consideration of long-term effects and following experts; el Presidente improvises, based on his nonexistant culture and knowledge, measures to save the people on the spot and that's it. Westerners say private actors should be assured of the safety of their property and contracts, while Chavismo seizes lands, encourages invaders, acts erratically and doesn't care about contracts. Westerners say extensive price controls are a recipe for disaster, Chavismo does them anyway. Westerners say a combination of a fixed foreign exchange rate, free capital movement and an independent monetary policy are an "impossible trinity", Chavez had them as his mainstay. And so on. For the future to resemble Venezuela leaders must embrace Venezuelan policies, but thankfully that seems unlikely.
Chavismo is classical South American autocratic demagoguery combined with moldy old Third Worldist, anti-imperialist and Marxist rhetoric. It doesn't look like a blueprint for what will happen in the future, but just another point in the long line of tinpot Third World autocracies.
 >>/28642/
Oh god, that sounds liek the universe of Atom RPG...
I got the impression that the Assad regime has more control over their subordinates. On the other hand if I was a Syrian and see that Russia and to some extent Iranians run the show how much of a respect I would have toward our great leader.
> Maduro, like Mugabe, should be an idol to primitivists.
Kek. As a minarchist (of some sort) I welcome localities having larger say in their own affairs governing... oh, wait.
 >>/28644/
Assad is nowhere as incompetent as Maduro and did some important reforms upon taking power. Syria's feudalization reflects its own lack of modernization, where surnames, connections and even tribes still matter, but mostly the immense strain the war placed on the structure of power. The army and police were overstretched, the state's ability to fund them collapsed and forces motivated by connections, ethnicity and religion proved to have far better morale than conscripts. So he had to rely on self-funding local militias of a sectarian character and his side became a lot like the rebels in the process. Of course he had a lot of responsibility for the war but without it he'd be in a much stronger position. His case isn't even the only in the region, with Yemen having an even worse power vacuum. 
Maduro and Chavez, on the other hand, achieved all of this in peacetime within a relatively stable neighborhood. 
> Russia and to some extent Iranians run the show
Russia was the gamechanger in the UN and from 2015 onwards but Iran was there earlier and has deeper connections and its own networks of influence and patronage within the country.
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I'm quite emotionally invested in Maduro's downfall.
This isn't Syria. Constant news of catastrophe there aren't just something I read about on my daily routine. Information on the human geography, factions and background of the conflict doesn't simply satisfy my curiosity. It isn't an exotic, far-away land of people I'll never meet with a completely different way of life.

Venezuela is Andine, and that's already culturally a leap from Platine America, which is in turn different from Brazil. But as much as I like to distance myself from the Hispanophones, I can't help but see my own society in theirs. The megalopolis in the mountains close to the sea, the sprawling plains with proud cowboys, the jungles, the church, America, the former colonial master, the Miami-loving upper class, the middle class, the slums, the races, telenovelas, cassava, the consumer goods, in all sorts of aspects there are strong parallels. The whole continent underwent more or less the same phases of history since the 19th century, and the Pink Tide and its aftermath are the latest. Lula and Chávez were of the same archetype with just different degrees of radicalism, "herbivore" and "carnivore" as it was used to be said. They behaved alike, ruled alike, coordinated their actions in a hemisphere-spanning network centered in Cuba and supported each other. To this day some people here vouch for Maduro.
Moreover, the crisis has gone beyond international news to directly impact my country, even if that has no day-to-day impact on my life. I know someone who knows someone else who interacts with refugees; that's a distant connection, but there is an impact nonetheless. That neighbor has cost us a lot, right now with the burden of migrants and previously in the billions of public money "invested" there by previous governments. 
The crisis is, to some degree, our fault for putting in place a friendly Pink Tide party and letting it give moral, diplomatic and political support to Chavismo until just a few years ago.

This means I empathize with Venezuelans, particularly those of a similar social position to mine, in a way I never could with Syrians. And it means I live with the chilling thought that it could have happened here. Realistically I know it wouldn't because the balance of political forces wouldn't have allowed it but seeing all of that happening in a similar society to similar people is unnerving.
News on Venezuela frequently appeared here since the 00s so I've followed it earlier than those on the First World. Its collapse wasn't a sudden event because of low oil prices or sanctions, ever since the first years of Chavéz in power there were voices warning that the system he created was doomed to implode. And what makes it sad is that there was no need to build that system in the first place, and the catastrophe was completely preventable. Venezuela was once in line with the rest of the continent. All countries were in their mediocrity, full of flaws but following a standard of normality, some doing better than others. They proceeded to get mostly mediocre leaders and normality remained, with some advancement across the board.

What Venezuela got wasn't mediocrity, the middle of the distribution, but the left end of the distribution of administrative competency -an uniquely inept ruling clique producing a situation far worse than the rest of the continent. If it had gotten mediocre, average leadership it'd be in a similar position to the rest of the continent -normality, not collapse. 
And this is also why I'm optimistic about toppling Maduro. Statistically he's already an improbably failed ruler. It is unlikely that any successor will be even worse than him; probably it'd be mediocre. And Venezuela needs mediocrity, because it means converging with Colombia, Peru, Brazil, etc. all of whom are full of issues but in a much better position. Guaidó has already proved himself mediocre. Under his rule the tendency would be to approach the South American average. And that'd be a good thing, because the average South American country isn't under hyperinflation, starvation and mass emigration; Venezuela's natural tendency is to converge to that, and only the rotten ruling caste stops it.
 >>/28726/
 >>/28727/
Was interesting and funny to read, my friend. I laughed by the second post. When things are so low that mediocrity is something desirable.
I can relate somewhat due to the Yugo Wars and to lesser extent the Romanian coup, even tho I was way younger than you. But it in our backyard (and Hungarians were effected directly by the events, sometimes they played important parts too) in very similar countries and felt emotional impact from both. While the late stage of The Troubles in Ireland and GB went down about the same time, it had very little impact.
 >>/28726/
 >>/28727/
 >>/28730/
> Events tend to regress towards the mean.


This, in a nutshell. Don't let flashy headlines fool you as it's never the whole story. Day to day averages almost never get mentioned for comparison, nor published at all.

A good essay, and an enjoyable read. There is both wisdom and humor in such an analysis, that hope lies in a return to grinding normalcy.
 >>/28820/
But a regression towards the mean is still completely impossible as long as Chavismo's system of exchange controls, price-setting, unprecedented cronyism, etc. is in place. Someone will do away with it, but that can happen now or in twenty years. Maduro is a stubborn mule and won't do it unless he's evicted or forced to share power, so if the status quo remains he'll rule until his death, a Gorbachev figure takes over and only then allows a return to mediocrity.

> Day to day averages almost never get mentioned for comparison, nor published at all. 
Information on the country itself is published a lot, it just isn't compared to the rest of the continent as often. And that comparison is necessary because it shows how completely preventable all of this was.
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A few days ago some dissident FARC leaders announced they'll return to armed struggle and seek an alliance with the ELN, another insurgent group. They are in Venezuela and have been to Cuba recently. For a long time Venezuela has backed those groups and allowed them to operate and make money in their territory.
If anyone should invade Venezuela it's Colombia. Chavismo has directly or indirectly interferred with internal Colombian affairs, always for the worse, supporting terrorism and creating a heavy refugee burden.
For more information:
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/09/03/the-meaning-of-farcs-sort-of-comeback/
https://panampost.com/sabrina-martin/2019/09/03/maduros-fundamental-role-in-the-farcs-affluence-and-power/?cn-reloaded=1
 >>/28928/
I've never heard the term, but now that I googled it I can find some references. What I do remember hearing in the past was that it was the last trench of reaction on the continent. 
It's just butthurt that Colombia didn't join the Pink Tide ride and repressed their FARC friends.
 >>/28928/
If we had to relate cunts to cunts I at least could compare Brazil to the US of A and Argentina with Canada and Sweden. Bolivia could be related to Albania due to being the haven for drug trafficking, but it could also be compared to Belarus due to being a socialist nation.
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/09/11/the-hypothesis-of-the-decline-of-crime/
Violent crime has declined because everyone left the country, those who are left are too poor to be robbed, guns are too expensive and gangs have already entrenched themselves in their territories.
 >>/29177/
There was a good comedy scene on Radio Cabaret I dunno if the show itself still exist, it was on every Thursday I think on one of the Hungarian radio channels, maybe on Petőfi or Kossuth I can't remember anymore, Bartók was for chiefly classical music back then for sure about the problem how to solve crime, or at least burglary. It used the radicalness of the solutions to create humour and mocked the usual ways of prevention, liek iron bars at windows and installing alarms. Such solutions were the abolishment of living standards where's nothing to steal there won't be robbery, or the wiping out the population so noone can commit crime, nowhere to break in.
Venezuela truly became a joke country.
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/12/30/2019-gave-us-a-new-kind-of-country/
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/12/01/what-is-happening-in-venezuelas-protected-capital/
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/09/25/the-access-denied-economy/
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2020/01/28/dollars-in-barrios-are-not-a-privilege-anymore/

Caracas has superficially recovered from the state of near societal collapse the country was last year, or at least isn't declining as fast as it did. Empty shelves have been filled with extremely expensive imported goods. Activity returned to the streets and the local private sector thrives. This is mainly in the capital, where remaining infrastructure is prioritized, and even then electricity and water aren't abundant; in the hinterland it is worse. The reasons for this "recovery" are:

-Massive depopulation from emigration, so remaining economic activity is better scaled to the population.
-Widespread dollarization, providing a usable medium of exchange in place of the bolívar.
-Relaxation of price controls and other regulations.
-Unenforcement of still overwhelming remaining regulations, such as labor legislation, by simple lack of administrative capacity but tacitly accepted by the regime.

Maduro's power structure has morphed into something completely different from that built by Chavez. The extremely weak state has given up on exerting its power, either on the capital's economics or on the country's geography: only in Caracas and some resource-producing areas it makes any attempt to rule, and the rest is left to fend for itself. The state itself is no longer the ruling clique's sole means of exerting control as many functions have been transferred to colectivos, gangs and the like.
Was thinking this situation in Venezuela is actually that which preppers prep for... 
Except the Western (American) prepping fantasy is centered around themselves being self-reliant individuals (or at best on the level of the family) an insulated island of civilization surrounded a sea of barbarism, fending off hordes of roving raiders and all that shit from Fallout. This image comes from the totally fragmented society, where the individual is alone (well the law abiding citizen, for those in organized crime is different) don't belong anywhere, mobile, moves easily around in the country if a new workplace or anything demands, rootless, noone to count on, the perfect exploitable individual for the big economic players (oh he get payed well, no doubt, abundantly enough to pay loans and mortgages until the coffin). Also the too much media, movies, everyone thinks he is the hero in the Movie of Life, when in reality every role is just a walk-on.
Granted this Venezuelan situation also isn't really about healthy communities, and their members working together, taking the control - appropriated by the state up until now - into their hands. It's more like a tribalism.
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Bit of a thread necro, but it be a good thread nevertheless. New news via Bloomberg:
------------------
By Fabiola Zerpa
and Peter Millard
September 11, 2020, 11:56 AM EDT 
------------------
Venezuela’s capacity to produce some much-needed gasoline and diesel of its own hinges on a single oil play. To tap it, the Nicolas Maduro regime is willing to cannibalize the country’s crumbling energy infrastructure to pay contractors with scrap metal.

Unlike the tar-like crude from Venezuela’s Orinoco region, the light oil from Monagas state is the only kind that’s easy to process into fuel at the country’s aging refineries. It’s also the only area where production doesn’t require the help of sanction-wary partners.

So, with the U.S. considering further steps to curb the country’s fuel imports, cash-strapped state producer Petroleos de Venezuela SA is offering to pay for major repairs at pumping stations and compression plants in Monagas with scrap metal and parts from idled oil facilities, people familiar with the situation said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public.

The move follows failed attempts to obtain $800 million in financing from suppliers, payable with crude and fuel, the people said. PDVSA is still offering to pay in crude or fuel, they said, but sanctions complicate such transactions and nothing has been decided.

The country so far has relied on shipments from Iran to ease a fuel shortage that often forces Venezuelans to queue for hours and even days to fill up, with many gas stations in Caracas shutting or rationing fuel.

The prospect of worsening shortages, increasing international isolation and growing social unrest has PDVSA grappling to revive a refining network crippled by years of mismanagement and pillage by criminal gangs. Boosting production and processing of light crude from Monagas is the country’s best shot at securing some measure of domestic fuel supplies.

The producer has already started dismantling some facilities to try to sell scrap, one of the people said, but it’s unclear what and how much has been sold.

PDVSA declined to comment on discussions with contractors.

Output from Monagas could become even more important for Maduro in the coming months if further U.S. sanctions target Venezuela’s barter for gasoline and diesel with its remaining clients in Asia and Europe. Without those suppliers, Venezuela will rely almost entirely on a dwindling group of sanctions-dodging traders for any gasoline imports.

The Trump administration has gradually tightened sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry to facilitate regime change, a prospect that has become more elusive with Venezuela’s opposition divided on whether to participate in congressional elections in December. Any success in reviving -- or simply stabilizing -- oil fields and refineries will give Maduro additional leverage to remain in power.

From a high of almost 1 million barrels a day in 2008, Monagas’s output has slumped to 114,000 barrels at the end of August. It accounts for about a third of the country’s output. While Chinese and Russian partners continue to help with extraction in the Orinoco region, the crude in Monagas is so easy to produce that PDVSA has never sought help from foreign companies.

Sanctions have forced Venezuela to take steep discounts when selling or bartering its remaining crude production. Diosdado Cabello, the vice president of the ruling party, said the country hasn’t gotten any actual cash payments from oil since late 2019.

“You have a government that got almost $100 billion from oil, and now only gets $1 billion,” said Francisco Monaldi, a lecturer in energy economics at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, and an expert on Venezuela’s oil industry. “I expect production to continue to fall, but it could go up when enforcement of sanctions isn’t as tough.”
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Last July there were intense clashes between security forces and "El Coqui"'s mega-gang in the Cota 905 area.

https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2021/08/11/this-is-the-venezuela-thats-heading-into-a-new-negotiation-cycle/
> The sense that crime has declined began to dissipate with the constant challenge of the mega gangs in the northeastern and southwestern tips of Caracas: Petare and the Cota 905. The State has been dealing with these mega gangs for years; how they affect the regime is something that could only be estimated on a local basis. Depending on the place, those criminal organizations are the government’s ally or foe. But the gang led by a.k.a. El Koki is unique as a symbol of the paradox: the Maduro regime is able to suffocate protest and subjugate the opposition, but is unable to neutralize an adversary that insists on defying security forces not far from Miraflores Palace. 
> Even if—as the Colombian police suspects—the gang leader crossed to Colombia after escaping the two-day battle with FAES in Caracas, his story shows that the Venezuelan dictatorship isn’t identical to its Cuban counterpart, which preserves a solid control over its entire territory. Besides the power such heavily armed gangs have over entire slums in Caracas and other cities, even after the increasingly violent battles with security forces, different kinds of criminal organizations are the de facto ruling entities in several parts of the Venezuelan mainland, a phenomenon that doesn’t exist in Cuba but is present in other failing states in Africa, Central America, and Asia. 
> The explanation for this resides in the logic of criminal enterprises. In a sort of return to the violent and chaotic past of Venezuela, the border regions became porous spaces of unraveling state governance and intense irregular activity, where Colombian guerrillas and paramilitary, and Venezuelan gangs, colectivos, police and the military compete for the lucrative traffic of minerals, drugs, fuel, food, and migrants. You don’t have to travel that far to see those gangs working, of course; a big part of Aragua, for instance, is under extortion, and some critical roads that connect the farms to the cities are controlled by pirates. 

How did the gangs get so powerful? In the past decade security forces left them alone, hoping to reduce violence, and this allowed them to consolidate their power.
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/11/04/mega-gangs-a-closer-look/
> Nothing has helped mega-gangs in becoming what they are more than “peace zones,” according to Izquiel. In 2013, Internal Relations, Justice and Peace vice-minister José Vicente Rangel Ávalos sat down with 280 gangs (in 80 of the most violent municipalities of Venezuela) to coordinate their disarmament and social reinsertion. They came to an agreement in which they established certain “peace zones” where law enforcement agents couldn’t enter and criminals would abandon their activities willingly. The result was that organizations that controlled large areas had the opportunity to see each other face to face and joined forces.

Quite an interesting mention at the end of the article:
> Luis Izquiel explains that firepower is key to their survival and, as evidenced in the Cota 905 incident, it’s stronger than what most Venezuelan security forces have at hand. He also suspects of government complacency, pointing at the gangs who control some of the mines at Bolívar State. “These gangs can’t be touched, not even with silk gloves,” he says, “and no one knows why.”
 >>/45405/
Criminal organizations are states in the state. And they take over when they have the chance.
By sitting down with them to negotiate, the govt. acknowledged their power and legitimacy.
I bet the whole thing went sideways before Maduro, probably even before Chavez.
Some groups must have foreign backing (of various sources) too.
 >>/47397/
They should have go with a fat lion.
Maybe these changes that certain regimes do with national symbols have some merit. They want to distance themselves from previous regimes, start something anew. These flags are always in front of people, they see them, and belongs to their identity, and forming a new identity cannot be done with the old symbolism. Shove them into the museums.
 >>/47399/
The problem is that it's a bad regime with a bad identity, plus the new symbols is ugly. Even the liberals in Caracas Chronicle condemned them, calling the emphasis on Amerindians hypocritical and criticizing the lack of popular input.
 >>/47439/
> What each feature represents?
1810-1811 was the independence struggle, 1989 the Caracazo riots and 2002 the failed coup against Chávez. According to Wikipedia the three people, from left to right, are Guaicaipuro (a 16th century chief), a black woman (just a random black woman, they couldn't even remember a relevant one) and Bolívar.
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Maduro pretended to hold elections and the foolish opposition is now demonstrating in the streets because they took this ritual seriously.

What I find notable is the reluctance shown by several left-wing LatAm governments in recognizing the results:
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2024/07/29/most-of-the-world-is-challenging-maduro-to-prove-he-won/
> Brazil: A government’s communique and special envoy Celso Amorin demanded a detailed account, “tally by tally”, before pronouncing a winner.
> Chile: President Gabriel Boric opened the reactions on the side that is not recognizing, demanding detailed account. [Note: he even called the results "difficult to believe"].
> Mexico: President AM Lopez Obrador, a lukewarm ally of Maduro, said he will wait for a complete account of all votes. Mexico will probably launch an emergency mediation group with Brasilia and Washington D.C.
 >>/52245/
There was a thread on /b/ yesterday that begged someone to kill him.
> and the foolish opposition is now demonstrating in the streets because they took this ritual seriously.
I do not believe this is true. I think they are demonstrating because The Screenplay of Modern Democracy says this is how it's done.
> Maduro Prove
Can he prove his rule up to this day was legitimate to begin with?
These fake elections, seriously...

I like his hoodie.
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 >>/52246/
This might go down as one of the laziest vote riggings in history. All percentages in the official results are suspiciously round:
> Maduro: 51,199997136828%
> Edmundo: 44,1999989263105%
> Others: 4,60000393686149%
It's so baffling anyone can check with Excel. It's all made up. Maduro must've told the head of the electoral council "I want 51,2% of the vote" and they simply multiplied the vote count by 0,512.
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After stalling for days, claiming they couldn't release data because of a cyberattack, Bolivarian authorities published a new bulletin. This time they gave each candidate a broken percentage, but slipped into the old mistake when reaching total turnout:
> Valid votes: 12,335,884 (99,5900027682987%)
> Invalid/blank votes: 50,785 (0,409997231701275%)
Once again, both numbers are less than 01 (one, uno) vote from reaching perfectly round percentages (this time at the second digit, rather than the first). They couldn't announce 12,335,883.6571 voters showed up at the polls, so they pulled .3429 from the blank/invalid statistic.

Furthermore, once again the regime's results are not broken down by state and municipality and not backed by any tallies, unlike the opposition, which digitized thousands of them. Nonetheless, Maduro's results were approved by the Supreme Court. His supporters apparently claim the real tallies were submitted to the Court (no you can't see them). Blessed is he who believes without seeing.

The opposition makes a lot of noise in the streets and Maduro promises an iron fist - mass arrests, no pardon, even forced labor: "Antes a los presos los sacaban a hacer carreteras. Quedan muchos caminos por hacer, que vayan a hacer carreteras" (In the past, prisoners were sent to build highways. There are many roads left to do, let them make highways). Convict labor on highways has historical precedents in past Venezuelan dictatorships, and Maduro is more or less explicitly comparing himself to them.

Caracas Chronicles claims it is futile to falsify tally sheets, because even if you print fake numbers on the same format, there are too many ways to verify each individual tally. I still think Maduro will come up with fake tallies within the next few weeks. They don't need to make sense, they might very well be easily proven false. He just needs to rebut the opposition's complaints about transparency and muddy the waters. A handful of zealots will still believe him no matter what. The rest can be physically removed from the streets.
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 >>/52248/ (self-reply)
The most plausible excuse for the official 80% why not 79,53 or 81,49%, this is also a bit suspicious results is that the vote counts were approximations innocently derived from the percentages. But if electoral authorities had the percentages, they had the real vote counts, why didn't they announce these? If 5,150,092 is merely an approximation, then Maduro was declared a winner without a public vote count at all. And if this excuse was truly the case, couldn't they have issued an explanation? The official results are as transparent as a brick wall.

In any case, the 96.87% results make it foolish to believe in innocent approximations. Each candidate now has properly broken percentages, so their supposed vote counts purport to be raw data rather than an approximation. So why would the invalid vote count be an approximation? How did they calculate total votes?

I'd speculate the 80% numbers were hastily devised on napkin math in the presidential palace on the very day of the election, or otherwise they'd look more plausible - the CNE's website wouldn't go down and the government would provide detailed results. Maduro's associates likely expected a demoralized opposition or prepared a different method of fraud which didn't work out as expected.

 >>/52271/
> Cuban troops
These have been mentioned for years  >>/25565/. It's difficult to confirm these claims, but they might explain Venezuela's oil subsidies to Cuba. According to a 2005 report:
> Venezuela is sending approximately 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil to Cuba. Venezuela’s oil contribution to Cuba represents less than 3.5 percent of its total oil production, and it is easily affordable. For Cuba, on the other hand, 90,000 bpd represents an invaluable lifeline that more than meets the island’s energy needs. Much of this Venezuelan oil is subsidized. Because payment terms are so favorable to Cuba, analysts estimate that Venezuela is providing Cuba approximately 20,000 to 26,000 bpd of free oil, for a total “gift” of $6 to $8 billion over the next 15 years.
> In return for oil, Cuba is sending Venezuela between 30,000 and 50,000 technical staff. As many as 30,000 Cubans in Venezuela are presumably medical doctors. Some are sport coaches, teachers, and arts instructors. An undisclosed number consists of intelligence, political, and military advisers.

There's an ideological explanation, Cuba is the Holy Land of Latin American leftism, which is a particular kind of internationalism despite its nationalist rhetoric. But the self-interested explanation is that the Bolivarian government relies on Cuban intelligence and military assistance as a sort of Varangian guard. The two regimes have a symbiotic relationship which might not be equally beneficial to their countries.
Further points to consider: Chávez sought medical treatment in Cuba and Maduro's inner circle is allegedly involved in santería (Afro-Cuban paganism). Some accuse the exhumation of Simón Bolívar's body in 2010 to have involved a santero ritual.
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Events are unfolding in a completely predictable course. The opposition holds demonstrations but the military and police remain loyal. Maduro is content to sit on a throne of bayonets. Lula and other moderate leftists in the continent have offered negotiations, all of which have so far been rejected by Maduro. Lula is in an uncomfortable position, trapped between losing a longtime regional ally and losing votes for his party. Suggesting negotiations allows his ally to whitewash legitimacy without the PR disaster of directly endorsing Maduro's electoral results, which is precisely what Lula's party did. He has gone so far as to publicly disavow his party's position. Lately he called the Venezuelan regime "very unpleasant" and "authoritarian", but "not a dictatorship", which neither side was pleased to hear.
Negotiations could be a clever move by Maduro. He's done it before, goading the opposition into backing down from confrontation and fooling it with empty concessions. A repeat election would be even better, it would be a second chance to demoralize voter turnout and rig the results. Lula knows this, he's giving his ally a way out. Maybe Maduro will accept under further international pressure. So far he refuses to back down even on a rhetorical level, counting on his coup-proofing measures. The National Guard, Militia and even the colectivo paramilitaries are potential counterweights to Army unrest. Cuban advisors, even a handful of them, keep a watch on suspicious officers. Even then, all of this is a risky bet. Coup-proofing is always perfectly successful until it isn't. Individual officers know popular acclaim or even CIA cash await them if they refuse to disperse demonstrations.

Hispanophone Maduro apologetics resort to cheap claims like the voting tallies already having been submitted to the Supreme Court (whose presiding judge is a card-carrying member of the ruling party) or the release of tallies not being needed at all. Anglophone apologists resort to the beaten litany of color revolution, CIA-backed, upper class oppositionists and so on.
I've watched clips from Maduro's speeches and he's nothing like that. His rhetoric has some classical far left components (fascism, imperialism, bourgeois representative democracy is a lie, we're building a new democracy of the 21st century) but it's a chaotic mix. There's room for religion (reading the Bible, accusing his enemies of Satanism, mentioning the "Venezuelan family", describing himself as in a "spiritual fight between good and evil"), generation shock (uninstalling Whatsapp, attacking tech companies), Palestine-baiting or Jew-baiting (claiming his enemies are financed by international Zionism) and other colorful influences.
A much livelier personality than his defenders. He's funny in a buffoonish, unintentional way. None of Chavéz's charisma.

Also notable are the intelligence and police services running psychological terrorism through heavily edited footage of their arrests of opposition figures. Another bullet point to Venezuela's cyberpunk status. It's not cyberpunk because of purple filters and flashing lights (though these might appear) but from authorities publicizing a crackdown like it's a funny meme. It could even be awe-inspiring if they had a proper production quality.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/venezuela-politics-hatelaw/
Older news: this regime also relies on "hate speech" to suppress certain kinds of discussion, much like advanced Western democracies. The big difference is that in Venezuela, it's hate speech against individual authorities.
 >>/52325/
Sounds like Lula had to pick between two seats, and he chose sitting on the floor. Vaguely I remember him doing another failure of a balancing act some time ago, no?
> Maduro's rhetoric
He obviously has to refuse fascism. That is always a good move. Then has to claim he is democratic despite not fulfilling the liberal-democratic expectations of the West. Then have to ponder to the Catholic traditions of Hispanics, South Americans; they were always faithful, even commies. Then have to place himself within the geopolitical trends, USA is unfriendly, means have to align against Israel. etc etc. At least that's my impression from your sketch.

 >>/52326/
Hatespeech is ofc silly to begin with. And really if we say can do hatespeech against group X, then surely can be done against group Y. Since it's nonsense there are no rules where to apply.

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