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 >>/43779/
> There are just far too many ethnic groups that live right next to each other but hate each other and these ethnic groups are all really too small to from a state on their own, if each ethnic group had a state there would be thousands of these nation in Africa, all being tiny micro-nations.

It isn't impossible to be a functioning microstate in 21st century. Technology and globalization already allows it.

Also these ethnic groups not that unique, so many states may contain more than one ethnic group, or will be relatively friendly and open to each other. Like Baltic states (two different ethnics - Balts and Finns), or Georgia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgians#Geographic_subdivisions_and_subethnic_groups )

 >>/43777/
> But today they expect from these fake nations they created at the end of the colonial period to be "nationalistic" and band together and deny their ethnic and religious ties bridging over these artificial countries

It worked for Europe in past. France, Germany and Italy were composed from pretty different groups, but now they are viewed as single nations even from inside (mostly). And USA - descendants of Germans, Brits and Italians already aren't different there. Of course radical differences are problematic, but are they so radical?

Maybe it wouldn't work in 21st century, because there are globalization, mass migrations and other funny things though. World is too connected and too fast for nation-building process. Especially considering that many Africans not progressed much from stone age mentality, and mentality progress are always slow and require generations.
 >>/43780/
But then you end up in the same situation anyway, only less centralised which could cause issues(one state becoming too influential or a state sitting on a cobalt mine getting too rich so other states invade it).

True, they don't need states if they want to live a traditional lifestyle. But if they want to live a modern one they will. They also may not have a choice, they may need to create a state in order to survive.

 >>/43791/
Yes but Africa lacks both. Even then it's really only possible in special circumstances. Like being in good locations like Singapore and Hong Kong or being surrounded by large nations that like you and will protect you whilst relying on rich people to fund the nation and not an industry, such as places like Monaco. These African micro states will have none of this, bar maybe one or two that could act like a Hong Kong of Africa.

Yes, they are not that unique and they are close to each other in many ways, yet that does not stop them hating each other. They would need some kind of overarching identity to bring them together which is part of the reason you would make them part of the same state(though this has not worked). But then Africa is a big place so some ethnic groups may be more open to such cooperation. Brining them together would probably involve one central group absorbing the neighbouring groups and forcing their culture on them whilst preventing the culture and language of the subject states. Kind of like what France and Japan did, how they forced their local dialect on the entire nation and banned the other local dialects. Thus eventually creating one identity.
 >>/43791/
> functioning microstate
And they weren't like those microstates when some blokes decide his property is a sovereign nation, but actual folks with several hundreds, thousands, 10s thousands of people. We got used to the thought that countries numbers millions, but it's not a necessity, even a the past couple thousand blokes could form states just fine.
It isn't impossible either that at one point, let's say in Europe, states will be decentralized so much that people can make major decisions about their lives on settlement level, from the settlement budget, funding local services, and only function on higher levels when it is absolutely necessary. Even now, in the EU the regions stepped forward as a way of coordinating smaller areas within countries, but above county level - sometimes even over state borders.
> but are they so radical?
In the case of Chad I would say it is more radical than it was in the case of Europe. In Europe the traditional way of living was mostly the same, even before the unifying force of Christianity and feudalism. I would say the difference in some cases even more larger than what was in the case of Rome and her barbarian neighbours.
In Chad beside linguistic, ethnical, cultural, and religious factors, they have/had such major dichotomies liek sedentary vs. nomadism, statelessness vs. statehood, and other differentiating factors like specialized economies to local conditions (e.g. fishing folks at bodies of water, or terracing cultivators in a mountainous zone). In Europe the list up to the sedentary-nomadism dichotomy holds true, but they all had states when these cultures clashed, and the specialized lifestyles (like transhumance) were within those cultures and weren't separate folks.
But if the differences are really that radical? Especially after 60 years of colonialism, and 60 more in these turbulent times, I dunno.
> Maybe it wouldn't work in 21st century, because [...]
Not the mention the ever present First World meddling, and China stepping up beside them. My thought was just a "could it be other way" or "would be better if" musing.
 >>/43792/
> They also may not have a choice, they may need to create a state in order to survive.
In those areas (the Sahel region of Eastern Niger, Chad, and Western Sudan), before the European colonizers arrived exactly that was the reason of state formation, in a circular logic, or "egg or chicken" fashion. The state's goal was to wage war, but created because of the pressure of war, and it is hard to pin the exact point when either of them came to existence and say which was first.
Conflicts exist without state, but war is something that needs state level organization (even in their most disorganized forms). States can rise for other reasons than war (the organization is needed to large project, like maintaining irrigation system or something) but in Chad and about that was the sole reason of its existence.
We know that southern states there - like Bagirmi and such - was created so they could withstand of northern pressure (like Wadai of Kanem), to became hunters instead of prey. But the northern ones? Some say they started to war because of Islam.
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Hungary's mission in Afghanistan ended. The last 9 soldiers we had there returned. Some photos.
https://index.hu/belfold/2021/06/09/afganisztan-honvedelem-katonak/
Our soldiers did their duty in many roles during this 18 years, as light infantry, helicopter instructors, in security, rebuilding, healthcare, mentoring, airfield operation, etc.
The article also says Biden considers the mission in Afghanistan finished on behalf of the US too, and by 9/11 their soldiers will also return home.
 >>/43899/
What a coincidence. Just wanted to ask someone what's up. What is the latest, what did you hear?
Last time I checked not much went on, Assad won the presidential election. I assume war changing event did not happen since then.
 >>/43901/
Well, this thread is about exchanging thoughts about third world conflicts essentially. If we see something interesting on the internet, we share it, and comment it.
Feel free to look around on our board, check the Catalog, you might find a topic you are interested in. Don't worry about necrobumping, we don't mind old threads getting continued.
We have a some thematic threads, like music, news, politics, vidya, movies, books, those type of stuff can go there, we try to keep the board decluttered, since it's a slow board. Very slow nowadays.
If you are new to Endchan, you might wanna check the boards page, and look around what's what.
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Changes do happen in Afghanistan.
I know little about the conflict, but this could be important, so here we go.
NATO troops withdraw, the Taliban advances. Now the Afghan government should fend for itself, but maybe it's too huge of a task for them, even tho the US should have prepare their army for that. The country has 34 provinces and about 400 districts, talibs took over 10% of these.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/19/afghan-president-replaces-security-ministers-amid-taliban-advance
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/20/afghan-president-ghani-to-meet-biden-as-violence-surges
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/21/former-president-says-us-failed-in-afghanistan

The maps I found and had "timestamp" are generally fall between old and not new (1960-2013), but they could offer a general idea.
Afghanistan's population is about 32 million people, and it's among the poorest countries on Earth.
Atlas Pro (channel suggested here:  >>/44232/ ) also went on the "better borders for Africa" road. 
https://tube.cadence.moe/watch?v=LvKONiRHgkU
What I disagree with is what he finds as the root cause of conflict: struggle for resources. Maybe this is true in some areas, but in Chad it is certainly not how it is. As previously stated they fought when 5 million lived on that area, they fight when they can feed 16 million on the same land.
 >>/44243/
I agree. I don't think there is really anything to done about that and I think he and other people just put things there to kind of justify why they fight each other so much. I think resources play a part but not so much in the form of a fight over resources for survival but more in rival tribes stealing from each other in tribal warfare, kind of like capitalism maybe. Why raise a cow when you can steal it from a tribe you hate?
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Maded this map. Well, added the country names and the population numbers. I could have picked another map maybe, but I liked the fact it shows the major rivers.
First I started with Wikipedia, but they changed the article in the meantime, so I decided I rather use this:
https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-africa-by-population/
Additional information:
- where it was over 900 thousand I rounded up to million;
- the red line is the approximate border between the two Sudans, the south one is the freshest country.

What really surprised me was some of the contrast. Like between Algeria and Libya. In their case I'd assume the coastal region is inhabited, while the inner deserty parts are sparsely. Are their coasts so different? What made Algeria so populous? Libyan people don't have sex?
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 >>/44267/
> Like between Algeria and Libya. In their case I'd assume the coastal region is inhabited, while the inner deserty parts are sparsely. Are their coasts so different? What made Algeria so populous? Libyan people don't have sex?

Maybe it is historical differences - Algerian coast had better development from ancient times, maybe trade and close proximity to Italy/Spain matters.

Considering demographics - they've both had typical high birth rates and fast growth, but Libya had less people when that demographic epoch (modernity with tech and proper healthcare), and so it needs more time for growth to became noticeable. That type of growth is exponential, so initial amount matters. Compare Nigeria and Gabon - they both got near 5x population (from 45 to 200 and from 0.5 to 2.2), but what a difference in absolute numbers.
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Afghanistan again.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/4/taliban-seizes-key-districts-in-afghanistan-as-govt-forces-flee
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/6/taliban-to-present-written-peace-plan-at-talks-next-month
More Taliban advancement. According to first link, there are 421 districts in Afghanistan. The second link says the tally of the Taliban control differs depending who you get your info from. Westerners say they took hold of 100 districts, Talibans claim double of that, which would mean half of the country. Sure, there are less and more important areas, so their value also matters not just the pure number.
Was talk about Turkey offering help to Afghan government, and we are seem to be involved in the cooperation, chiefly due to our previous experience in running an airfield there.
Just now the Bagram airbase was evacuated by US troops.
 >>/44270/
Well the growth rate is higher in Libya than in Algeria, but the latter had larger population base. So it's historical reasons - beside the amount of habitable areas. I kinda recall from history lessons in relation to ancient Egypt, that west from there was very sparsely populated. But considering the suitability of Egypt due to the Nile, it doesn't mean much.
In Rome all three places (Egypt, "Africa", and Mauritania) was used as a source of grain.
The Taliban are capturing even more territory, militia are changing sides, Afghan forces are fleeing into Tajikistan and Tajikistan is calling on the CSTO to secure the Border with Afghanistan with Russia already talking about that too. What a mess...
 >>/44325/
I think both the pages I linked and other related articles talked about those. About 1000 troops had to cross the Tajik border. Tough.
The Taliban says they wanna talk, but I bet they won't stop the offensive while peace talks are going on.
Joe Biden says that the Taliban won't take over because the Afghan army is as well equipped as any other army in the world. It looks like the Taliban is going to be as well equipped as any other army in the world soon. Heh.
 >>/44339/
> Taliban *is* an Afghan government.
Taliban is *an* Afghan government.
I also just made one in my basement, gonna tell Orbán to support them.
I understand what you're writing however. Machiavelli also wrote about this situation in the Il Principe, in the chapters about how the prince gains power, when a foreign power grants him his throne which will depend on this foreign backing.

The Afghan non-taliban govt needs to secure its positions at least that much they could achieve an impasse against the Taliban. And they should involve foreigners to gain more grounds above that. Do they even have bargaining chips? Their existence came from the US need to wage war on terror back in the early 2000s. Times are changing.
 >>/44341/

It looks like Taliban is not just a political movement, but more like self-organization of Afghan society, at least for now. Otherwise they wouldn't get popular support that they've got, and it wouldn't be so easy to conquer everything in one second after international forces left.

Other "governments" are too foreign for locals, and only way to become real government is to become another Taliban, just with different name.

Taliban already sent delegates to Moscow: https://apnews.com/article/taliban-moscow-europe-russia-51327432f1455020352826281c6c4e73
 >>/44343/

It is unrelated to CIS. CIS is basically non-existent anyway, just a word without meaning. Economically there is so-called Eurasian Customs Union that includes some CIS parts. CSTO is some strange entity too, it isn't purely military block, and there are questions about it's effectiveness. Recent Karabakh conflict had one side (Armenia) from CSTO, and no one did anything.

Considering military side, Russia also has presence on Tajik/Afghan border from Soviet times, and border incidents with Afghanistan was numerous in 90s. With US involvement it became much more quiet, but now, I guess, these talks are all about that border again.
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 >>/42492/
Do you know about that turkman Sedat Perker? Apparently he used to be some kind of mafia boss who developed connections to government. He was jailed for a time and then released under Erdogan. He became very pro-Erdo since then. But more recently the government started to hound and arrest some supposed "mafiosi" from his camp and that caused a complete break. He fled to the Arab Emirates (people say) and became something of a minor sensation due to the publication of a series of videos in which he lays out wide ranging schemes, ploys, and outright criminal activity of various turkish politicians and organizations, even implicating himself . But according to media no hard evidence was provided, only his alleged "witness" account.
How much verisimilitude is in his stories? He is wanted by Turkey now Is he only bluffing in hopes of being offered some kind of deal by authorities?
If translation is correct, he admits sending truckloads of weapons to Syria, disguised as "humanitarian aid"
There's now talk of Turkey deploying Syrian mercenaries to guard the Kabul airport. I wonder how much support the government will be left with. If it's not enough, those Syrians will have to pack up and leave soon.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/07/turkey-likely-use-syrian-mercenaries-kabul
 >>/44393/
I found this part as particularly interesting:
> several hundred US soldiers are expected to remain at the Kabul airport, potentially until September, to assist their Turkish counterparts until the new mission is in place.
> new mission in place
It sounds it sure there will be a new mission. Syrians are a likely part of it, but the issue with them obscures the bigger picture. What will that mission be?
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Just opened up Al Jazeera to check if they have something on Syria these days, and this is what greeted me.
On one of the links I found this skeptical line:
> Often celebrated as the Arab Spring’s so-called success model, Tunisia
And another article shows Tunisia never recovered since 2011. If the success model is a failure, we can imagine what's going on elsewhere. Well, here we've taken a look to other places, so we know.
 >>/44571/
> IDF will hopefully get into combat with Russians
I don't think such clashes are probable.
> Putin declared he's defending Assad & co.
1. wasn't this he did up until now?
2. could you link a source, a news site, with his statement? I've little time to search myself.
 >>/44573/
Thanks.
> Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria
That's a mouthful.
> Russia has “run out of patience” with Israel in Syria and is planning a shift in its policies toward Israeli sorties over the country, according to the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat which cited an unnamed “well-informed” Russian source.
> Asharq Al-Awsat cited an unnamed Russian source as saying that following talks with Washington, Moscow had got the impression that “Washington does not welcome the continuous Israeli raids,” and thus believes it has the freedom to act more aggressively
I'm not saying that unknown source if bs, but they may pick their words differently and shift the emphasis on different things to play for the ear of the Arabic newspaper.
But the facts seems to be that in that attack almost all rockets were intercepted, so they really do something.
> the Russians were now supplying Syrian forces with more advanced anti-missile systems and know-how
They themselves won't face another major player in the area, just as how they don't face Turkish forces.
Nevertheless the relations with Israel, and the possibly growing influence of Iran nearby is another layer of the issue and the excitement. And another loop on the "how the Syrian situation can be resolved" Gordian knot.
 >>/44564/
Shortly before the arab spring, like couple months maybe, I was in Tunisia with my folks. We had polish speaking guide but he was a local. He studied in Poland and lived here for a while so he knew the language quite well. 
My father was giving him a lot of question regarding the ancient history of this region but after a while he straight up asked why do they call their country democratic when they had the same president for over 20 years. The man responded that there's democracy in Tunisia, but they can't have too much democracy otherwise the country will just plunge into chaos which will kill tourism industry, and tourism is the main income source for basically everyone there.

Came back home and some time later news about happenings across north africa started to appear.
I think about it a lot.
 >>/44577/
The truth had been told.
The Arab Spring served nothing just the destabilization of the whole region. And who knows when things will be set into place.
Problem is order would only be restored when a strongman acquires the power, and everything would go back as it was. However this could only happen if a major player backs that person, and he will be dependent on the support. Like Assad.
 >>/44577/
I was also in Tunisia not that long before, in 2009. Dad asked about it as well and got similar answer – that people might be frustrated by it, but the good side is that the country is stable and that they don't have groups kidnapping tourists or stuff.
 >>/44577/
 >>/44581/
Not every country can afford to have demoracy. Security first demoracy later, otherwise you get arab spring.

To get demoracy you need to have independent educated middle class otherwise you will get at best tyranny of majority. The countries are forced to have democracy not because people reached a conclusion it's because USA tyrantly forces it and benefits from corrupt, sell out  governments not to mention US defition is demoracy is more or less related with their ability of enforcing their financial and media power.
Reached bump limit within this thread. New Syria/third world conflict thread is needed.

 >>/44586/
> the country is stable and that they don't have groups kidnapping tourists or stuff.
Now they have the reverse.

 >>/44588/
> US defition is demoracy
Something similar came to mind as I read your post. The definition of democracy, how it is interpreted, and everyone (well, the West) is trying to make their definition exclusive.
For example the system Gaddhafi created, the Jamahiriya, was highly decentralized with opportunities for the populace to get involved in politics directly. It is criticized however because he implemented redundancies which allowed him influence making him a de facto leader without being one in name. I have no information how well or bad the system actually worked, but Lybia - thanks to the oil - was wealthy country, with some level of comfort.
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Too many refugees for feeble amount of Merkel bribes. Even the Afgans are coming, we can't handle it anymore, your shitty is about to trigger a civil war and they are as guilty as Erdoğan. We host more than %50 of worldd refugees it will eventually bite Europe bad. When shit hits the fan blame your politicians for buying out erdoğan instead of encouraging their permanent return in syria, which doesnt happen as EU is supportive of YPG/PKK's ethnic cleansing in favor of kurds, so we can resettle arabs without hitting kurds but if we do that it's anudda genocide, that's what your unbiased media says.

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