/kc/ - Krautchan

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Meanwhile...
Putin gave another history lecture through phone to Trump, proving he is not a paper tiger. It was Big and Glorious but it took centuries.
They're gonna meet at Budapest, this idea is floating like a turd in the public pool since Trump got inaugurated. Finally the time came. First their various diplomats will meet to court each other.
However Trump receives Zelensky in the White House tomorrow. Will be another round of humiliation? Surely finally we'll learn from Trump if it is his war or Biden's, if it had happened if he had been the President in 2022 or not, and maybe he will disclose the origin of the Javelins Ukraine had at the beginning of the war. I'm sure it will worth the waiting.

Found this "research platform":
https://oxuswatch.com/
https://xcancel.com/theoxuswatch
They are doing research and write publications on South and Central Asia (protip: Oxus is a big river in Central Asia).
Not sure where to follow events related to Afghanistan but this is one source at least.

This article (a bit stale from June) says the Taliban banned foreign jihad:
https://oxuswatch.com/content/dynamics-behind-taliban-ban-afghans-fighting-pakistan

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Orbán was on the radio, as he does on every Friday. He was talking a lot about the "peace summit" however he said nothing much in particular.
He said he spoke with Trump yesterday and with Russian diplomats and he'll call Putin today. They formed a "task group" to organize the event, which could happen as soon as in two weeks. Rubio and Lavrov with their staff will agree on stuff and hammer out details and a week after that they are finished. He said a meeting can be organized at many places around the world, but if we just focus on Europe and why we should not since the war is in Europe, then the first place is Budapest. Hungary represents peace since the outbreak of the conflict, both in voice and in acts, only the Vatican can say the same thing about itself. Uh, that's about it.

I still don't know how will they smuggle Putin in. Perhaps they'll pack him into a capsule and pump him in via the Turk Stream pipeline.
Or at least via Türkiye and from there I guess via the Balkans. Bulgaria, Serbia, perhaps from the Adria.
Or could just fly over Ukraine - if he trusts the US switching off Ukraine's air defence - easy peasy. But at least they can make Poland stand by and allow Putin a flyover.
Anyway he'll be the second war criminal we won't arrest. Apparently it's okay these days.

Here's an artikel about the same thing:
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-trump-putin-meeting-budapest-a28ff73252889bcd1c73f70b1338a0d3

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 >>/54753/
Neo-cons are very lucky Donald Trump has the patience for all this bullshit. If I were sitting president I would have told Europe and Ukraine to make peace with Russia, abide by the Istanbul+ agreement of 2022 (which Ukraine was going to do but was coaxed out of it thanks to Bojo the clown and bumbling Biden) and walked away from this war completely. Not our war, not our problem.

You won't ever find me in pic related.

 >>/54754/
USian Presidents aren't their own man to be honest. They have to do what various economical power groups and lobbyists want. They are tied up by debt and banking too.
But here's a different explanation for the deadlock of the peace plans:
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
It's an hour video, but he describes the thoroughly, describes various ideas why things don't work out. He notes that Russia is winning, but it seems they only have plans how to fight on, but not how to make this peace. The core of the problem is that this is a five state deadlock (US, UK, Europe, Ukraine, Russia), war aims are different even on the "allied" side, and noone knows how to end the war.

I agree, from where we stand now the Istanbul agreement would have been the best solution. Or if they adhered to the Minsk agreements. Both ship sailed.

> pic related.
It's a webm, Bernd.

Others asking questions too.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/17/how-will-putin-travel-to-budapest-to-meet-trump

Trump didn't give the *hawks to Zelensky yesterday. No surprise. He'll deliver when he pretends to get angry at Putin some weeks after they met.
Still have to check in detail how was the meeting.

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 >>/54758/
In fact I saw at least one artikel on Hungarian news site about the same topic.

Thinking about the reasons why Hungary was picked. From security viewpoint getting the presidents of Russia and US into the same place is huge responsibility.
So one of the reasons we can sum up as: our govt kept a civil tone towards Russia, not working overtime on chopping all the ropes like a madman. This is described by Our Party and Government as "being in the peacecamp", and by Western leftlib media and politicians as "Putin's best friend in the EU", or even Russian Trojan horse.
But, they surely looked for a country that can be trusted. And there is no such thing as "trust" in Realpolitik. Or any kind of foreign politics really, even the most gullible of liberals would not believe in that.
Right now Hungary is run by one of the most loyal client regime of the Trump administration.
But this is only one thing. Russia also needs a reason to consider our country "trustable". And yes, Hungary probably was a reliable trade partner, the type of loyalty and ties the Western media tries to project are nonexistent. What I think has a role in this is Israel.
Not just the Orbán government, but all the politicians minus Mi Hazánk perhaps, and prior Jobbik, and prior MIÉP are pro-Zionist to the max, and unknown number but a sure number of Israeli-Hungarian double citizens sit in the legislation and in the governmental bureaucracy, no doubt in various security services and law enforcement too. Israel has a great pull on Hungary and she influences our foreign relations. There are other details such as Israelite religious groups visiting Hungary, or that various Israeli sport teams (eg. football clubs) play their various matches at us. Both example needs some level of Israeli security involvement, they have a way in. So I think Israel has a reason to believe Hungary as a trustable and secure place.
Relations between Russia and Israel are rarely discussed and hard to measure the real depth, but for this post I think we can say they are quite pragmatic. The issues they have all largely has to do with great power politics in the Middle East, the clash of interests between US and SU - later Russia. Even that Iran thing is the result of this. Should not forget Israel is a US client. Some say Israel is 51st state of the US, now that couple millions of Jews emigrated from Russia, we could consider it a Russian oblast too.
Israel maintained relations with Russia, they did not join in any sanctions either. Compared to this Hungary is a real enemy of Russia we are rolling with all the EU sanctions. And recently Netanyahu seems to mediate between Trump and Putin. They had casual chats this year.

They should really stop the war until Matt recovers.

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Wyatt of DPA in fresh frontline changes report noted Russian claims that their foot is entered Mala Tokmachka at Orikhiv (Robotine). Geolocated video footage exists to back the claim.
If they could push between Orikhiv and Huliaipole they could create two more pockets and killboxes, which would be also new to the Zaporozhia front. Similar to these  >>/54659/

He also reports as "Breaking News" that the Budapest meeting is cancelled. Need to wait a bit to consider it confirmed.


 >>/54761/
He did published a new video yesterday. He needs some more time to properly recover. Wishing the best.

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Two curious cases of spontaneous combustion in oil refineries, on the Hungary and Romania. The Hungarian at Százhalombatta caught on fire, and there was an explosion in the Polesti refinery. The latter was shut down when it happened, btw it's owned by Lukoil.
Apparently no foul play is involved, just a coincidence.
Tried to find footage uploaded by people on youtube and twitter. Found nothing. Hungarian news outlets published couple of amateur photos. But that's it. Jesus we are so passive, there is 0 civilian initiative in the country.
So I upload a 14 year old footage of the MOL refinery.

Couple of English lang sources:
https://dailynewshungary.com/mol-oil-refinery-blaze-questions-answers/
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-oil-danube-refinery-fire-szazhalombatta-2571de4d3de341a7b7875e8cdda1b4f3
https://unn.ua/en/news/explosion-at-russian-lukoil-oil-refinery-in-romania-casualties-reported

What the fuck is a dronewall?
Not sure how they called it in English, but something the EU wants to build. At least from Norway to Poland. Because they can't shoot at cheap Russian drones with expensive rockets.
So what would they shoot with?

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The Trump pendulum swings faster now. He didn't need weeks this time to go back and fourth.
> Let's have a meeting with Putin
> Won't give Tomahawks to Zelensky
> Fuck Putin, let's sanction Russian oil companies.
Lukoil and Rosneft, more precisely.
Four pages of document, gonna upload in the next post.

For now the meeting with Putin is halted, after Rubio-Lavrov phone call. Washington says Moscow doesn't take the question of peace seriously. Trump with EU leaders and Zelensky is now saying that fighting has to be stopped first right there where they are now, and then negotiate.
Problem is: the war goes well for Russia now.
They have the initiative and they can select where they want to push. And they do everywhere essentially. They recently got the Vovchansk and Zaporozhia fronts into movement too. Russia outguns Ukraine in everything, even drones. Ukraine countering capabilities shrunk to almost nonexistent. They have some attacking operations in Sumi, but that encirclement north of Pokrovsk was apparently not more than a media stunt. Essentially Russia destroys the war material continuously as it arrives into Ukraine. Perhaps Ukraine is building up a new force but there is no apparent sign, if they do, that is really an ultimate secret. I have my doubts.
It seems Ukraine is heading to exhaustion, with quickening pace. Moscow sees that, so they aren't willing to play on Western terms.
I assume Washington also knows this. And they just maintain appearances until the inevitable happens, and then they shrug.
We will know when things end.

I'm sorry Mr Pres, but Truth Social sucks. Yes, Twitter too, but Truth just as well.

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Here's the document. A call for immediate ceasefire.
Bunch of companies, subsidiaries of Lukoil and Rosneft. There are some secondary sanctions there too, on page 4.

Meanwhile 19th sanction package of the EU is rolling out. Hitting hard. Ourselves.

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Ooo, boy. Was I right?
Talk again about Ukraine might purchase Gripen.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/more-optimal-than-f-35-air-force-explains-1761157097.html
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-plans-to-buy-120-150-new-swedish-1761143403.html

I already mentioned this, with the addition that we might training their pilots. In the neighbourhood beyond Sweden the only one who flies Gripens is us. And here it is:
> Sweden began training Ukrainian pilots on the Gripen back in 2023.
This quote above aligns with what I wrote back in 2023, see picrels and links at the bottom to the posts.
> According to Ignat, Ukrainian pilots have already mastered the Gripen. They traveled to Sweden specifically and conducted familiarization flights on the fighter.
> mastered
> familiarization
Those are two different things. Mastering takes a long fucking time. But obviously neither them nor us will acknowledge this. We are Putin's faithful allies after all and the arch-nemesis of Zelensky.

> The aircraft is capable of landing and taking off not only from paved roads but also from dirt strips.
Can the F-35 do the same thing? Press any key for doubt.

Two problems:
1. Money. Grok says one plane costs somewhere $85 million to $151 million. We are leasing them.
2. Sweden lacks production capacity. They can't deliver. They produce for themselves and Brazil (with local assembly).
> This is a long-term contract: production of this model has only just begun, and the first deliveries, according to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, are possible in three years.
So if they really buy, it could happen they won't arrive just after the war.

Here are my previous posts about this:
 >>/49918/  >>/50292/  >>/51016/
Picrels for the other threads might get bumped off in the future. Haha, good joge.

So with the sanctions Trump want to reduce oil Russian sales, but it drives price up so the Russians can sell their oil for higher price?
Real genious plan.
Tho China has to buy it for more, which hits China.
But for now it's 5% price hike. That's not much.

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Pokrovsk is getting chewed up. DeepState map delays a bit, but we are arriving to the Avdiivka moment soon, and they won't be able to hold back anymore and shit will hit the pants.
Russian envoy will travel to Florida to meet Witkoff.

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I have another idea why Trump "cancelled" the meeting. For security reasons. Expanding on this:  >>/54760/
If they announce they are gonna have a meeting in two weeks, that means two weeks preparation time for an assassination.
Now I'm pretty sure if anyone tried that, those people and their families and their cats even would get in real trouble. Nevertheless I can list two countries from the top of my head with at least a few people sour and angry enough not to care or have nothing to lose: Ukraine and Iran.
Still Hungary seems to be the place to hold such summit. It can be surveiled quite well, small country, everyone hooked on the Google/Apple/Facebook spy network. Foreigners can't learn the language and Hungarians don't speak foreign languages, it's easy to filter out the chatter that doesn't belong. There are no local groups, organizations who'd have such beef with Trump or Putin they'd attempt anything. And they are all infiltrated anyway.
So slimming down the timeframe for the preparations of an attack could be another step to make it impossible to put it in action.
What I think they'll announce the event suddenly, we're gonna read some headlines at one point that says:
> Tomorrow President Trump and President Putin will meet on Yournut
Or
> Yesterday PT and PP had a meeting in Panties

Meanwhile our Fidesz/govt. media is full on telling us the meeting will happen.
I'd also expect Tucker Carlson appearing here, he already visited Hungary and made an interview with Putin, he might do another one here.

Michael von der Schulenburg (mainly him) and Jeff Sachs on Neutrality Studies, about how the EU is a paper tiger
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU
In support of Ukraine:
> all the things we do are illusionary

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Due to Legend mentioned and article by an author on substack I decided to read it:
https://substack.com/@bigserge/p-176674862
Indeed it is very interesting. 
About the Tomahawks Pascal says something similar in this:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=jb1IuSqzEak
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jb1IuSqzEak

What I'm disagreeing on with Big Serge is Pokrovsk. He really downplays its importance, and ignores it entirely in the upcoming campaign in the envelopment of the Banana. See both picrels, first is directly from his substack, second is my edit.
I think Russia rather acquires a logistical hub at Pokrovsk-Myrnograd (like Bakhmut NE of here) and attack on a wider surface. Or even more wider than that: from somewhere between Zaporozhia city and Orikhiv in an arc where the "Main Supply Routes" arrow points to the western green road (N-NW of Pokrovsk).
I'm fairly sure they don't want to level the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration so obviously cutting the main supply lines is a great start to gaining the last bastion of Donetsk oblast. They don't really have to capture the green roads, I think its enough if the front sits on them.
But to get to it, Pokrovsk is a #1 priority.
I do think that each group of forces has its own #1 priority, it would be cool to draw 'em on the map. I've no time to fiddle with it sadly.
Then all the group of forces has the goal to "liberate" Donetsk, the last of the puzzle will be the two towns. I don't think that'll happen in 2026. A lot of prerequisite for that to happen.
And the SMO has the goal of "demilitarizing" and "denazifying" Ukraine, above all this.
Baud wrote that the denazification was achieved with the capture of Mariupol, because they wanted to denazify there. I'm not sure how they could denazify Lvov for that matter, so they probably tick that box.
And the same author also wrote the demilitarization was also achived like four times over: RuAF destroyed the original equipment they had, then the donated old Soviet equipment, then the old NATO stuff, then the new NATO stuff, and now the West supplies Ukraine on "as fast as we can produce" basis. Attrition deals with this issue, but attrition should force Ukraine to the point where can't defend no more, and then force the disarmament and no NATO demand on them.
At least this is how I picture at the moment what the Kremlin dreams of.

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Trump just can't leave himself out of creating that sweet sweet security dilemma.

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Taken from AMK's Twitter.
I have no brilliant insight on this, I just find it interesting.
As the story goes, Ukrainian special forces are dropped of by a Blackhawk, then they get eliminated by FPV drones. See map for their movements.
As many commenters' my question is also what they wanted to achieve? Sure military history is full of miscalculation. What the higher command imagines what's going on there?

Related: heard on Fidesz/govt radio Ukraine collects various security forces, from military police to GRU and concentrates them near Pokrovsk. And even that Budanov himself controls the operations of them.
But how they put it I got the feeling that they are there to keep AFU units in check and in fighting in order. They did not say this, but I got this vibe. Perhaps they want to prevent a route and maybe even infiltrators to enter. They surely gained experience from previous important captures like Avdiivka, Velyke Novosilka, and the smaller ones (Bakhmut seemed different).

Dude visiting Ukraine. As a tourist. Starting from Hungary.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU

 >>/54788/
Alex of HistoryLegends made a review on the action. It's on his second channel HistoryLegends Fleshlight Flashlight Flashpoint:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs
Good points:
- more than one choppers, therefore more than 11 men, perhaps up to 33 with 3 helicopters
- from the drone footage can't be assessed how many were KIA actually, and indeed in many of these the camera feed goes out too early and too far away from the soldiers
- the goal might had been to capture or clear the intersection

 >>/54788/
GUR ofc, not GRU

 >>/54788/
 >>/54791/
Denys Davydov has a quite all right video of the same action:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8
It contains a longer video from some road made by a local, which features 2 Blackhawks, and no third one. The ambushing drone also shows only two. So they could drop up to 22 soldiers.
I think features in the other stuff I posted above that the action itself happened on Oct 29., I forgot to mention. Anyway.
DD says the forces dropped there were taken out several hours later.
His take on the situation in Pokrovsk also surprisingly sober.

I think the operators weren't for recapturing that intersection. They were too few, and with just small arms, the area is large.

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Front line changes on the Velyka Novosilka - Huliaipole axis.
On 2025 January 25 VN fell completely, the Pokrovsk front was already stood at Udachne.
Sometimes in June they started the march in quick pace. For about half a year they were slogging through fortified positions, wet spring perhaps (it is usually mud season, not sure how it actually was this year), and maybe the AFU was tougher too.
Last picrel is a gif, one screenshot of the situation on the 25th of each month, up till today.

 >>/54796/
Maybe should be called Velyka Novosilka - Pokrovske axis, since the general direction is that settlement.

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Germany delivered 2 Patriot batteries last Sunday.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63519
Germany only has six herself, and they sent 2 from these due to the promise that the US will replace theirs ASAP.
Prior to this since 2022 Germany gave 3 batteries.
All in all I think they have about ten? Nine?
A battery consists of a power plant, a radar set, an engagement control station, several launcher stations (each with four tubes which can launch 4-16 missiles depending on the type), and an antenna mast group.
In theory a battery is serviced by 90 soldiers, but only 3 are needed to operate the whole air defense fire. I assume the rest drives stuff around, refills the launch tubes or swap them (haven't looked up how that really works), secure stuff, and does the maintenance.
So NATO only needs to loan 3 soldiers for each battery, the rest can be Ukrainians. I assume the training isn't just showing what button does what.

Russia destroyed some launchers and other components. They claim a number, Ukraine and western analysts confirm way less. At minimum one battery of components were lost to Russian strikes.

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Here's the map of the Finnish mapper from scribbler:
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The%20War%20in%20Ukraine/091194
I overlayed to the Deepstate map here  >>/54796/ made sure it fits, and traced the red and blue lines.
His use of these lines: red - Approximate Russian frontline, blue - area in Ukrainian control.
So in between is the "gray zone", no mans land.
While I was fiddling this I listened recent WillyOAM video, a chat with AMK Mapping.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=HZy6WdWIEKg
https://youtube.com/watch?v=HZy6WdWIEKg
Matt said something that with the Finnish map made me think how this "gray zone" works.
I think the red areas where Russians launch their attacks.
The blue where the AFU has manned positions. Up to the blue is the grey zone which the Russians keep under fire control, where they surpass Ukrainian firepower with their own and where their foot, the "DRG units" can operate and try to infiltrate through.
It's kinda like the creeping barrage of WWI.

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Venezuela. Just a couple of thoughts.
So the US considers a number of states as "enemy". As we defined here:  >>/54313/ an enemy is a non-client regime that deliberately chooses to oppose the US in key issues, in their foreign and domestic policies both.
Not sure about the current list of enemies. Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela is there. Perhaps couple of African countries? Not sure. Russia and China are rivals to the US, I think the US has some level Containment policy in effect against both, but they also do deals with them. The US with the Containment policy prefers to shut everything.
What I think is Trump going through the list, and tries to decide what policy options to pick against each. For now he prefers more active stance than just Contain, Persuasion or Engagement (some of the policies here  >>/54523/ are universally true, they differ in detail from enemy to enemy). In Iran's case they decided to combine the Israel option with their own bombing campaign. And now in Venezuela the again doing air raids, for now against boats and narcos and whatever.
I dunno what's the most current is, I think a number of warships and a small invasion force is grouped there. We'll see.
What I think that when the issue with Maduro gets stale (or solved, or the situation changes in a way that it can be presented by US propaganda as a WIN) then we're gonna start hearing about some other enemy, I assume North Korea. Perhaps Trump will visit again, he will say he knows the Little Rocketman well and they are great friends and they have great understanding and Ukraine is not his but Biden's war. There will be some saber rattling no doubt.
And then we'll move to the next one.

JFC Trump is not in office even a year, he was so fucking much. God! Less America!

Millenium 7 * HistoryTech explains hypersonic missiles.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A

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 >>/54830/
He presents some extremely simplified mathematics to explain how hypersonic missiles maneuver and how they are intercepted.
What worth noting is picrel. AA does not capable to intercept within a circle. Depending on speed and the angle how the missile enters into the range of the battery the interception area is reduced and deformed in extreme fashion. Interception works most efficiently if the rocket is heading directly towards the launcher but that's rarely the case.
So if we wanted to cover everything... that's just not realistic.

Al-Sharaa  >>/54750/ went to Washington. Have to get the assignments, just like Orbán did.

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 >>/54834/

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Back to the Venezuela topic:  >>/54827/
Videos by James Ker-Lindsay:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8
He mentions regime change as a goal of the Trump administration at the end of the first one, and expands on that in the second.
But it's worth a second to watch the first one as he shows how the "drug problem" got militarized/"securitized" and elevated from a health issue to a foreign relations and security see Realpolitik issue. In my opinion they did to use it as an excuse to create enemy states from non-clients or renegade clients, to pursue hawkish policies. Citing them as source of the drug problem they try to gain legitimization for  military action, and introduce regime change in the country.
And yes, regime change is a goal, but not a policy instrument. Change to a neutral or better yet, client regime - latter is called Switching  >>/54236/. This can happen if the regime is removed and a new is set up, or if the regime changes its mind and stops opposing the US in key issues.

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In the second video he goes through various options. This is similar to Which Path to Persia:  >>/54523/
1. Intensify existing pressures, tightening sanctions, introduce sanctions on countries supporting Venezuela, isolating them further. Basically the Containment policy. Problem: they can't do that much further, and could cause such humanitarian problem which can cause rally the flag effect and strengthen Maduro.
2. Increase covert action: clandestine operation, encourage defections, assassination. Unpredictable and can backfire.
3. Military action: targeted strikes, special force raids. Risk of civilian casualties, and low chance to get the desired effect.
4. Invasion and occupation by US forces. High cost and long commitment for rebuilding.

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It wasn't the goal of his video to present all the options, but I have to add the US could try Persuasion and Engagement policies. With the caveat that Persuasion is a combination of Containment and Engagement, threatening with the stick while dangling half the carrot, and as previously mentioned they can't really introduce bigger stick... Ergo it's a useless dance.
Again the only solution is Engagement: lifting everything and re-integrating Venezuela into the world. But this they won't do.

As for the military options, which are the 2 to 4 options in his list, there are other options in there, we have to check. We called it hostile interventions, and as he did we can differentiate between covert and overt ones.
Covert:  >>/54316/
1. Coups d'état;
2. Punctuated military ops;
3. Aid to internal armed opposition forces.
Overt:  >>/54317/
1. Large-scale combat - doesn't apply in this case;
2. Sustained and asymmetrical attacks (airstrikes, strategic bombing);
3. Combat ops alongside local insurgent forces;
4. Invasion.
So all these can be used to move forward the desired regime change. Except for the US to act openly, she needs a legitimate reason to do so.

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I think next to all these are a covert option they managed to develop the Revolution policy tool  >>/54531/.
They support various opposition figured and groups, astroturf the target country, inflate and incite, spread opposing, perhaps forbidden and banned, thoughts, popularize their own ideology. Provoke reactions from the government to crack down the opposition, to commit unjust actions, or even atrocities. Which of course make the population suffer more and hopefully more angry. 
And one day if the people move to the street they might orchestrate another atrocity or a red flag event to push them into action, and if situation allows help them with their own troops, see #3 above.

Quick note. Alex of Historylegends mentions some numbers here:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=Uz33WHEcw_I
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Uz33WHEcw_I
now US sent the USS Iwo Jima amphibious ready group with
> ~4500 personnel
> including 2200 marine
compared, back in 1989 against Panama they deployed
> 27000 men
Then in October the US raised the presence in the Caribbean to
> ~10000 troops
And I think since then the moved some more units to Panama.

 >>/54840/
Yeah, they moved the Carrier Strike Group 12 with USS Gerald R. Ford  to the Caribbean.
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/display-news/Article/4329588/gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-enters-us-fourth-fleet/
> The carrier strike group will augment joint forces already in the area of responsibility, including the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group and embarked marine expeditionary unit, under a Joint Task Force, created to defeat and dismantle criminal networks that exploit our shared borders and maritime domains.

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Ten day changes on the Huliaipole front. More movement can be expected.

About the Gaza peace deal and the proposed UN resolution - how it is used to sideline Palestine, cut off Gaza and serve Israeli interests, all done by the Washington.
By Jeffrey D. Sachs.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs

Basically they are doing what I hoped they won't but I knew they will.

Colonel Reisner again, from three weeks ago.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow
https://youtube.com/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow
> Russian summer offensive failed
What did he mean by this?

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 >>/54845/
Watched. Better than expected.
He meant that the Russians failed to break through between Pokrovsk and Konstiantynivka at Zolotyi Kolodiaz. So he spins it that it was a main objective and major effort, instead of a lucky result of attrition. He either doesn't get it, or he tries to give something to be optimistic about.
Beside this, it's a good summary of the situation.
It is lopsided at the "hybrid war" as if Russia was the only one who engages in this. The fun part is that the West wages the informational war on its own population! Not many Russian (or Chinese for that matter) follow Western media to get told what's happening. Ofc other elements of the hybrid war - eg. heckin hackerinos - are directed against Russia.
Fun that he is using our boy Clement's bomb map. Kudos.
Too bad this wasn't translated.

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Kek, now Zelensky buys French Rafale's too. A hundred of 'em no less.
Is this cancels the Swedish deal  >>/54768/ ? Remember that was in intent too.
Sounds like they want to gain promises for the future to secure military industry funding.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251117-zelensky-french-arms-ukraine-defense

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> miranoharadu
Made me raff very very big.
Delivering emotional daaaaaaaaaaamage to some for sure.

Oh yeah, another pace plan time. The nth.
Le Monde says it was released by Financial Times and Axios:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/21/war-in-ukraine-what-we-know-about-donald-trump-s-28-point-peace-plan_6747683_4.html
FT is paywalled but Axios is not:
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
There is a thread about it here:  >>/news/28800/ not sure if the same text I haven't read, I assume it is.

As for the size limitation of Ukraine's army, they say it's 600K max. Axios says right now it's about 800-850K (I've seen similar numbers by other sources some times earlier), and before the war it was 250K. I doubt they could upkeep a 600K standing army. Perhaps with weekend soldiers included.
BUT. It is more important if there are any limitations in weaponry. What they can have or how many.

This one:
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
Isn't it a given that European fighter jets can be in Poland? How is this part of anything? Compared to this they cannot be in Romania or the Baltics? This point makes no sense.

This is fun:
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
- The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
Will European countries be allowed to buy Russian fossils or any other energy sources? Or we still have to move to USian LNG and such???

There are some problems. From the top of my heda:
For starters the most staunch and active supporters of the regimes in Kiev and Moscow both feels the war must go on. Potential political instability ahead.
Is Russia willing to accept the current govt, especially Zelensky as a legitimate party to sign it?
Would EU and UK sabotage the whole thing and push Ukraine for more war? Especially the UK is a notorious warmonger. But maybe Washington could bully everyone to stand down.

Still have to watch couple of videos I'm sure there will be some in the next couple of days. I'm curious what Matt is saying.

 >>/54852/
Thinking about the recognition of "de facto" Russian control. The fuck Russia cares about this. They are happy controlling Crimea away since 2014 and spend 0 time on crying about why the USA doesn't recognize their de facto control. So from the Russian point of view they are given nothing.
And. They don't want to leave some issues unresolved. From Odessa Ukraine can endanger the whole Russian Black Sea shipping. If I was the Kremlin, I would be a huge fugging building. Also would not want Ukraine to control to have that important sea port. Plus land bridge to Transnistria.
And. It is clear already what Western promises and guarantees and agreements and treaties worth. See: Minsk.
So I do agree with such opinions that Russia want to look like the reasonable party so they can blame Zelensky and the West again for the failure of the negotiation, and push more.

Also another party that might not want the war to end: China. It profits from both sides, by selling shit directly, plus gets Russian resources on discount, plus enjoys the US squirming powerlessly like a senile invalid.

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The Finnish map notes that the RuAF cut the Pokrovske to Huliaipole road at Danylivka and Radisne. AFU counterattack is ongoing from the villages towards the north east.

Fugg. Watching DPA frontline changes reports. In the past 4 days RuAF captured over 200 sqkms. That's 50/day
Considering Ukraine's monthly loss is something like 400-600 (15-20/day), this is huge amount.
Wyatt speculates this might be the new norm.

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Putin about the peace plan, translated by Michael Rossi, on his channel:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M
https://youtube.com/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M
tl;dr
For Russia supports the peace plan, but fighting on is just the same for the reality of the battlefield reflects that Russia is winning, and both Kiev and Europe either don't get correct information or can't interpret correctly the situation, so they don't want peace. Negotiations started before Alaska and they are going on ever since.
Basically.

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A coup, a coup, a coup!
This time in ... drumroll...
Guinea-Bissau
Picturesque description of the events by Le Monde:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/26/guinea-bissau-military-declare-taking-over-leadership-of-the-country_6747857_4.html
This is very typical for these African countries:
> The High Military Command for the re-establishment of national and public order decides to immediately depose the president of the republic, to suspend, until new orders, all of the institutions
They do it to preserve the legal order. Then they probably move on to declaring they are temporarily in power to oversee a democratic election at the end.
They say the president...
> aimed to destabilize the country by attempting to "manipulate electoral results."
...was undemocratic and unconstitutional and the military had to step in. Such cases.
Same happened in Mali.
As Luttwak states in his great book - Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook - African coups usually take the form of pronunciamento which is a liberal rather than a reactionary phenomenon, the purpose of the takeover is to ascertain the "national will". Always carried out by in the name of the entire officer corps - unlike the putsch which represents a faction within the army.
Worth to note, it's always some lower ranking general or colonel. There is a reason to this. See Luttwak.
It would be interesting to listen their whole announcement they did after the coup. Again Luttwak says there are traditional formulas, to pacify the population, calm down certain multi-corpos active in the country, to express alignments, maintain alliances, refuse colonialism etc. The promise of election is always a nod to Western Democracies.
And the reaction of foreign powers: always concerned, urging non-violence and elections.

 >>/54863/
Trying to listen the brigadier general's speech, but sucks can't find one coherent video in English, so a bit of here and the bit of there. So trying to piece it together.
Restoration of National Security and Order... ofc course they are.
Committed to:
- national security
- civil peace
- defense of territorial integrity
- independence of the country
They reacted against the plot aimed to:
- destabilize the country
- manipulate election
by local actors and foreign nationals.
In the name of preserving constitutional order:
- they decided to depose the President
- close all institutions
- suspend the ongoing elections
- shut down social media
- close land, sea borders, airspace
- exercise state power
They ask for:
- calm collaboration by the population
That's about it.

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Major General Horta Inta-a was sworn in as transitional president, with one year term, the length of this period to secure democracy.
Also the coupists say the foreign influence was by drug traffickers.

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Lars made another video where he shows the fuel price. It's the taiga but still in the European side. At two gas stations, he specifically mentioned 95.
> 73 rubble
> 65 rubble
Compare to these  >>/54734/
> 52 in 2022
> 69 a month ago near Moscow

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Andrey Yermak resigned among corruption scandal. The waves if shitflood reach high.
I read/heard somewhere he was not just a simple right hand man, but a gatekeeper, noone could meet Zelensky without him agreeing on that. I have no source on hand however.
Anyway just the most clueless naive Westerners can be surprised about this. These practices are most common in Eastern Europe. It's not like West isn't corrupt but they stack things differently.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zelenskyy-ukraine-corruption-scandal-chief-of-staff-andriy-yermak/

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Shit is hilarious.
OPLAN mon DiEU
https://www.defencetoday.com/resources/operations-plan-germany-oplan-deu/
https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Germany-Drafts-Secret-1200-Page-War-Plan-as-NATO-Prepares-for-Possible-Clash-With-Russia/
https://www.euronews.com/2025/11/28/germany-readies-massive-defence-plan-to-counter-potential-russian-threat
> “whole-of-society” war blueprint.
It's the totaler krieg again.
> envisioned moving around 800,000 soldiers and some 200,000 vehicles from various NATO states through Germany to the front line against Russia.
They can't even fugging move one French brigade through Europe. See:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk
https://youtube.com/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk
Moving 800K man would be a clusterfuck of ébin proportion.
And they fantasized through 1200 pages. Just about the length of that book where Frodo and co. trudged through Middle Earth into Mordor.

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Check out these curves.
And compare to that reduced interception area if the missile doesn't come directly towards the AA battery.  >>/54831/
Hmm.

And now I'm gonna practice my Cyrillic skillz:
OAeca
XepcoH
AHinpo
AoHeubk
yepkacN
KNIB
PiBHe
CyMN

What are the greatest buzzwords of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
- game changer
- red lines
- energy independence (this might be just idiotism, not a buzzword)
Ah, the cogwheels don't turn. Getting late, surely will come up more when fresh.

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Jeff Rich of The Burning Archive has a great series about the peace process on the Ukraine. Why is it deadlocked, why they can't make peace.
This Australian (historian and ex-govt official) has a unique way of seeing things, some I disagree with but quite a lot to mull over.
Three main ideas which form a trap they can't get out:
1. Five State War (not 2 but 5 participants)
2. Divided Executives (cliques and individual thoughts within all the participants)
3. War Termination Phase (everyone wants to reach peace on their own terms)

I think it starts with this:
Why the Ukraine Peace Plans are DEADLOCKED
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k

Why do Ukraine Peace Talks Keep STALLING?
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q

Then he breaks down each participants:
US - Why the USA cannot make peace or win the war in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs

Russia - Why Russia won't win on the battlefield only in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY

UK - Anarchy in the UK. Britain's Ukraine Endgame
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8

Europe - Stop the BLAME EUROPE Game to Make Peace in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4

Ukraine - Ukraine is TRAPPED in the ENDGAME of its Own War
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM

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Now that the Siversk front got into swing tubers started to talk about it, speculating with arrows all around. Said potatos often draw arrows through the Donetsk river from north to south, like if it's not even there - traced with blue in maprel.
I mean not impossible, but last time RuAF tried it they were clapped hard, I'm not sure they are keen repeating it. But maybe it's time, the Russians can judge to try it. Siversk is hard pressed and surely the last strike was coordinated and executed from there.
I think tho they'll just hug the curves of the river and help with artillery, mortar, drone whatever fire from that side.

 >>/54881/
Jeff Rich's proposal for peace.
7-point for REAL PEACE
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=s-BlCqRzeT0
https://youtube.com/watch?v=s-BlCqRzeT0
He asks a lot.
I do think he is right in many things.
I like the way how he views the issue: 5 state war - which means the peace agreement should be done between all five. Each participant have to make separate agreements with Russia, and they have to terminate their own participation in the war. It's not forcing Ukraine to make peace, like how Trump seems to do it.
The major historical parallel/analogy he cites is the Peace of Westphalia, which ended the Thirty Years War, which had three main participants - Habsburg Dynasty and their various domains, France, and Sweden - and their numerous smaller allies.
Have to look it up really. I have serious holes in my knowledge about this. We learnt that the core of the conflict stood religion, and that our Transylvanian Duke made a separate peace with our King Ferdinand the III.

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We can do better than imposing the will of the strongest at gun point...

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Surprise update from DeepState. Seems AFU tried to snip off the tip. I don't know if they really recaptured ground, or just pushed in with units most geolocatable footage is drones killing people and destroying vehicles. We'll see.
Watched some Denys in case he shares more info, but no.
Anyway they really need results, victories, that is short in supplies.
Meanwhile they had to give up Siversk. I write give up, because the Russian capture happened fast. So I assume Ukrainians withdrew. Watched DPA's frontline changes report and apparently the RuAF units did a serious flag raising operation, to show the world they captured the whole thing, and more.

Apparently they are disbanding the Foreign Legion and distribute the soldiers to any Ukrainian unit, mentioning assault units specifically. Even DD finds this idea nonsense, heavy criticism of Sirsky.

Watched this video by Vlad Vexler:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=zylBiCCEoxM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=zylBiCCEoxM
It's about Trump's 28 point peace plan. He finds the restriction of the size of the military a problem for it cuts into Ukraine's sovereignty.
All right, I get it. But if Ukraine joins EU, everything will be about compromising the state's sovereignty. Not one country in the EU, not Germany, neither France is sovereign.

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Caspian Report about the "Drone Wall". I mentioned before I've no idea what the fuck they mean by it.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=dcuCvRNqmpY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dcuCvRNqmpY
We won't be any smarter:
> What precisely the drone wall will look like and how it will be funded is up for debate as is the exact timeline for completing it.
In rough lines: sensors, radars, jamming tools, precision weapons.
He mentions acoustic sensors the Ukrainians used. I wonder if these can be fooled/jammed in some way. Organizing a concert in front of them.
Also USian lazor (Leonardo DRS and BlueHalo) weapons, 3 bucks a beam.
One problem: 4000km frontline... Adding Finlan was a genius move at least from the view of border length.

Radio said that the Bondi Beach shooters were recruited and trained by ISIS... On the Philippines...

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This 3 : 1 ratio of troops is so fucking stupid. Or rather how they apply it. And i'm not talking about:
> the attacker always suffers 3 losses for every 1 defender
situation, but when calculating necessary troops, because they think 3 times more troops needed for the hope to succeed. So some might suggest that 250K Ukrainian troops can hold up to 750K Russian forces just fine.
There is even a US recommendation to hold 1 km of frontline with 250 troops. So that 250K can be comfortably spread out along the whole 1000 kms of frontline.
But let's say the Russians only send 250K troops to the front to face the AFU's same amount. Then they take only 1 soldiers from every km - gaining 1000 free soldiers to place -, and concentrate them to one specific km of the front. There they can achieve a 5:1 ratio of majority with pitching 1249 troops against 250.
What if they take 2 soldiers from every 250? What if they take 50?

In WWII the balance of Germany vs France when the former invaded the latter was this:
141 divisions vs 135 divisions
3,3M troops vs 3.3M troops
2445 tanks vs ~3500 tanks
5638 aircrafts vs ~2900 aircrafts
Considering it's about an 1:1 match the Germans did brilliantly. Why? It wasn't about the full sizes, but how to concentrate them.
Data is taken from Wikipee for I was lazy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa

So pulling troop numbers out of someon's ass, based on the 3:1 ratio is nonsensical.

It's PICKY not RISKY.

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Lyman - 18.12.2025.... webm
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The fiber optic web on top of Lyman. I think the second video is the original.
In the first one dude says these are becoming similar to WWI trenches which were associated with that war.
And secondary use of fiber optics cable?

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 >>/54932/
> mkv
Fuck me.

A week or two ago in his sitrep, Wyatt of DPA changed his sitreps a bit after he put forward a theory about how the war is fought how they capture ground.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=vhocenrJeUY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=vhocenrJeUY

He says they have bases in various settlements, where they can house X amount of soldiers, and they send them out to the trenches where they clash with the enemy as they try to hold/capture those. There is a range where it is effective to send the soldiers, and at one point it gets too dangerous due to enemy drones/mortar/artillery.
Russians try to pound these bases and suppress the traffic that is going between the bases and trenches. When the place gets sparse enough, they try to move in "on foot" and capture it.

They say Ukraine will hold presidential election. Preparing voting possibility for those who fled the country.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66485

Breddy cool map to follow the war. Actually several maps by known mappers can select and compare each. I'm missing DPA from it, 
https://ukraineviews.org/

Along with Jacques Baud and Xavier Moreau this half-negro Swiss lady was also sanctioned by the EU. She has a very interesting and quite unsettling story.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=PXq89FryYzo
https://youtube.com/watch?v=PXq89FryYzo
The Swiss bank she has account at froze her money in Swiss Francs, and just stole the rest which was in Euro...
She can't fly to Switzerland for the EU surrounds it. But it would be useless to be there since the whole country is run electronically, and large part of her income based on her online presence, and she would be just locked out of every services.
Swiss embassy did not help her out.
Unrelated US companies refusing to deal with her.
Google demonetized her channel.
She's on EU's list and bunch of other 3rd party companies are shutting her out.
The reason all this because she is against France's presence in Africa. She voices her opinion against Francafrique. For the EU this means she works for Russian interests and they cite alleged ties to Wagner (and Afriq which is considered a Wagner front) and destabilizing activities.
She was already pestered by France and Macron back in 2019, he made Ivory Coast to expel her (to Switzerland). Her current EU ban happened back in June.
https://sanctionslists.org/news/eu-imposes-sanctions-on-a-swiss-social-media-influencer/
I guess she and the others still can go to Russia. Then the EU could say:
> see we told you they were Russian agents

Russia often presents herself as a power that is against the colonialism the West still practices. It's a Soviet heritage ofc, the SU did the same. And they support those locals who also want to get rid of the remnants of their former oppressors and exploiters.
But how about Europeans (the colonial powers along with Brussels) approach the Africa question differently. Are they so afraid they couldn't compete on leveled field with others eyeing the continent (such as US, Russia, and China)?
I don't get it how the EU could behave this close minded. I see the same parallel with those Russians who don't want to live under Putin's regime and try to emigrate, but tarded EU politicians like Kaja Kallas wants to deny them the opportunity. They literally prove to these people that it is true what the Kremlin says about the Westerners hating them and about Russophobia.

And there is the issue that it's just the EU Council led by our dear Ursula who issues these sanctions. As if they were some kind of despots. No examination, no legal process, no hearing, no defense. They are the prosecutors, judges, executioners in one body.