/kc/ - Krautchan

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Meanwhile...
Putin gave another history lecture through phone to Trump, proving he is not a paper tiger. It was Big and Glorious but it took centuries.
They're gonna meet at Budapest, this idea is floating like a turd in the public pool since Trump got inaugurated. Finally the time came. First their various diplomats will meet to court each other.
However Trump receives Zelensky in the White House tomorrow. Will be another round of humiliation? Surely finally we'll learn from Trump if it is his war or Biden's, if it had happened if he had been the President in 2022 or not, and maybe he will disclose the origin of the Javelins Ukraine had at the beginning of the war. I'm sure it will worth the waiting.

Found this "research platform":
https://oxuswatch.com/
https://xcancel.com/theoxuswatch
They are doing research and write publications on South and Central Asia (protip: Oxus is a big river in Central Asia).
Not sure where to follow events related to Afghanistan but this is one source at least.

This article (a bit stale from June) says the Taliban banned foreign jihad:
https://oxuswatch.com/content/dynamics-behind-taliban-ban-afghans-fighting-pakistan

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Orbán was on the radio, as he does on every Friday. He was talking a lot about the "peace summit" however he said nothing much in particular.
He said he spoke with Trump yesterday and with Russian diplomats and he'll call Putin today. They formed a "task group" to organize the event, which could happen as soon as in two weeks. Rubio and Lavrov with their staff will agree on stuff and hammer out details and a week after that they are finished. He said a meeting can be organized at many places around the world, but if we just focus on Europe and why we should not since the war is in Europe, then the first place is Budapest. Hungary represents peace since the outbreak of the conflict, both in voice and in acts, only the Vatican can say the same thing about itself. Uh, that's about it.

I still don't know how will they smuggle Putin in. Perhaps they'll pack him into a capsule and pump him in via the Turk Stream pipeline.
Or at least via Türkiye and from there I guess via the Balkans. Bulgaria, Serbia, perhaps from the Adria.
Or could just fly over Ukraine - if he trusts the US switching off Ukraine's air defence - easy peasy. But at least they can make Poland stand by and allow Putin a flyover.
Anyway he'll be the second war criminal we won't arrest. Apparently it's okay these days.

Here's an artikel about the same thing:
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-trump-putin-meeting-budapest-a28ff73252889bcd1c73f70b1338a0d3

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 >>/54753/
Neo-cons are very lucky Donald Trump has the patience for all this bullshit. If I were sitting president I would have told Europe and Ukraine to make peace with Russia, abide by the Istanbul+ agreement of 2022 (which Ukraine was going to do but was coaxed out of it thanks to Bojo the clown and bumbling Biden) and walked away from this war completely. Not our war, not our problem.

You won't ever find me in pic related.

 >>/54754/
USian Presidents aren't their own man to be honest. They have to do what various economical power groups and lobbyists want. They are tied up by debt and banking too.
But here's a different explanation for the deadlock of the peace plans:
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
It's an hour video, but he describes the thoroughly, describes various ideas why things don't work out. He notes that Russia is winning, but it seems they only have plans how to fight on, but not how to make this peace. The core of the problem is that this is a five state deadlock (US, UK, Europe, Ukraine, Russia), war aims are different even on the "allied" side, and noone knows how to end the war.

I agree, from where we stand now the Istanbul agreement would have been the best solution. Or if they adhered to the Minsk agreements. Both ship sailed.

> pic related.
It's a webm, Bernd.

Others asking questions too.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/17/how-will-putin-travel-to-budapest-to-meet-trump

Trump didn't give the *hawks to Zelensky yesterday. No surprise. He'll deliver when he pretends to get angry at Putin some weeks after they met.
Still have to check in detail how was the meeting.

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 >>/54758/
In fact I saw at least one artikel on Hungarian news site about the same topic.

Thinking about the reasons why Hungary was picked. From security viewpoint getting the presidents of Russia and US into the same place is huge responsibility.
So one of the reasons we can sum up as: our govt kept a civil tone towards Russia, not working overtime on chopping all the ropes like a madman. This is described by Our Party and Government as "being in the peacecamp", and by Western leftlib media and politicians as "Putin's best friend in the EU", or even Russian Trojan horse.
But, they surely looked for a country that can be trusted. And there is no such thing as "trust" in Realpolitik. Or any kind of foreign politics really, even the most gullible of liberals would not believe in that.
Right now Hungary is run by one of the most loyal client regime of the Trump administration.
But this is only one thing. Russia also needs a reason to consider our country "trustable". And yes, Hungary probably was a reliable trade partner, the type of loyalty and ties the Western media tries to project are nonexistent. What I think has a role in this is Israel.
Not just the Orbán government, but all the politicians minus Mi Hazánk perhaps, and prior Jobbik, and prior MIÉP are pro-Zionist to the max, and unknown number but a sure number of Israeli-Hungarian double citizens sit in the legislation and in the governmental bureaucracy, no doubt in various security services and law enforcement too. Israel has a great pull on Hungary and she influences our foreign relations. There are other details such as Israelite religious groups visiting Hungary, or that various Israeli sport teams (eg. football clubs) play their various matches at us. Both example needs some level of Israeli security involvement, they have a way in. So I think Israel has a reason to believe Hungary as a trustable and secure place.
Relations between Russia and Israel are rarely discussed and hard to measure the real depth, but for this post I think we can say they are quite pragmatic. The issues they have all largely has to do with great power politics in the Middle East, the clash of interests between US and SU - later Russia. Even that Iran thing is the result of this. Should not forget Israel is a US client. Some say Israel is 51st state of the US, now that couple millions of Jews emigrated from Russia, we could consider it a Russian oblast too.
Israel maintained relations with Russia, they did not join in any sanctions either. Compared to this Hungary is a real enemy of Russia we are rolling with all the EU sanctions. And recently Netanyahu seems to mediate between Trump and Putin. They had casual chats this year.

They should really stop the war until Matt recovers.

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Wyatt of DPA in fresh frontline changes report noted Russian claims that their foot is entered Mala Tokmachka at Orikhiv (Robotine). Geolocated video footage exists to back the claim.
If they could push between Orikhiv and Huliaipole they could create two more pockets and killboxes, which would be also new to the Zaporozhia front. Similar to these  >>/54659/

He also reports as "Breaking News" that the Budapest meeting is cancelled. Need to wait a bit to consider it confirmed.


 >>/54761/
He did published a new video yesterday. He needs some more time to properly recover. Wishing the best.

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Two curious cases of spontaneous combustion in oil refineries, on the Hungary and Romania. The Hungarian at Százhalombatta caught on fire, and there was an explosion in the Polesti refinery. The latter was shut down when it happened, btw it's owned by Lukoil.
Apparently no foul play is involved, just a coincidence.
Tried to find footage uploaded by people on youtube and twitter. Found nothing. Hungarian news outlets published couple of amateur photos. But that's it. Jesus we are so passive, there is 0 civilian initiative in the country.
So I upload a 14 year old footage of the MOL refinery.

Couple of English lang sources:
https://dailynewshungary.com/mol-oil-refinery-blaze-questions-answers/
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-oil-danube-refinery-fire-szazhalombatta-2571de4d3de341a7b7875e8cdda1b4f3
https://unn.ua/en/news/explosion-at-russian-lukoil-oil-refinery-in-romania-casualties-reported

What the fuck is a dronewall?
Not sure how they called it in English, but something the EU wants to build. At least from Norway to Poland. Because they can't shoot at cheap Russian drones with expensive rockets.
So what would they shoot with?

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The Trump pendulum swings faster now. He didn't need weeks this time to go back and fourth.
> Let's have a meeting with Putin
> Won't give Tomahawks to Zelensky
> Fuck Putin, let's sanction Russian oil companies.
Lukoil and Rosneft, more precisely.
Four pages of document, gonna upload in the next post.

For now the meeting with Putin is halted, after Rubio-Lavrov phone call. Washington says Moscow doesn't take the question of peace seriously. Trump with EU leaders and Zelensky is now saying that fighting has to be stopped first right there where they are now, and then negotiate.
Problem is: the war goes well for Russia now.
They have the initiative and they can select where they want to push. And they do everywhere essentially. They recently got the Vovchansk and Zaporozhia fronts into movement too. Russia outguns Ukraine in everything, even drones. Ukraine countering capabilities shrunk to almost nonexistent. They have some attacking operations in Sumi, but that encirclement north of Pokrovsk was apparently not more than a media stunt. Essentially Russia destroys the war material continuously as it arrives into Ukraine. Perhaps Ukraine is building up a new force but there is no apparent sign, if they do, that is really an ultimate secret. I have my doubts.
It seems Ukraine is heading to exhaustion, with quickening pace. Moscow sees that, so they aren't willing to play on Western terms.
I assume Washington also knows this. And they just maintain appearances until the inevitable happens, and then they shrug.
We will know when things end.

I'm sorry Mr Pres, but Truth Social sucks. Yes, Twitter too, but Truth just as well.

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Here's the document. A call for immediate ceasefire.
Bunch of companies, subsidiaries of Lukoil and Rosneft. There are some secondary sanctions there too, on page 4.

Meanwhile 19th sanction package of the EU is rolling out. Hitting hard. Ourselves.

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Ooo, boy. Was I right?
Talk again about Ukraine might purchase Gripen.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/more-optimal-than-f-35-air-force-explains-1761157097.html
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-plans-to-buy-120-150-new-swedish-1761143403.html

I already mentioned this, with the addition that we might training their pilots. In the neighbourhood beyond Sweden the only one who flies Gripens is us. And here it is:
> Sweden began training Ukrainian pilots on the Gripen back in 2023.
This quote above aligns with what I wrote back in 2023, see picrels and links at the bottom to the posts.
> According to Ignat, Ukrainian pilots have already mastered the Gripen. They traveled to Sweden specifically and conducted familiarization flights on the fighter.
> mastered
> familiarization
Those are two different things. Mastering takes a long fucking time. But obviously neither them nor us will acknowledge this. We are Putin's faithful allies after all and the arch-nemesis of Zelensky.

> The aircraft is capable of landing and taking off not only from paved roads but also from dirt strips.
Can the F-35 do the same thing? Press any key for doubt.

Two problems:
1. Money. Grok says one plane costs somewhere $85 million to $151 million. We are leasing them.
2. Sweden lacks production capacity. They can't deliver. They produce for themselves and Brazil (with local assembly).
> This is a long-term contract: production of this model has only just begun, and the first deliveries, according to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, are possible in three years.
So if they really buy, it could happen they won't arrive just after the war.

Here are my previous posts about this:
 >>/49918/  >>/50292/  >>/51016/
Picrels for the other threads might get bumped off in the future. Haha, good joge.

So with the sanctions Trump want to reduce oil Russian sales, but it drives price up so the Russians can sell their oil for higher price?
Real genious plan.
Tho China has to buy it for more, which hits China.
But for now it's 5% price hike. That's not much.

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Pokrovsk is getting chewed up. DeepState map delays a bit, but we are arriving to the Avdiivka moment soon, and they won't be able to hold back anymore and shit will hit the pants.
Russian envoy will travel to Florida to meet Witkoff.

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I have another idea why Trump "cancelled" the meeting. For security reasons. Expanding on this:  >>/54760/
If they announce they are gonna have a meeting in two weeks, that means two weeks preparation time for an assassination.
Now I'm pretty sure if anyone tried that, those people and their families and their cats even would get in real trouble. Nevertheless I can list two countries from the top of my head with at least a few people sour and angry enough not to care or have nothing to lose: Ukraine and Iran.
Still Hungary seems to be the place to hold such summit. It can be surveiled quite well, small country, everyone hooked on the Google/Apple/Facebook spy network. Foreigners can't learn the language and Hungarians don't speak foreign languages, it's easy to filter out the chatter that doesn't belong. There are no local groups, organizations who'd have such beef with Trump or Putin they'd attempt anything. And they are all infiltrated anyway.
So slimming down the timeframe for the preparations of an attack could be another step to make it impossible to put it in action.
What I think they'll announce the event suddenly, we're gonna read some headlines at one point that says:
> Tomorrow President Trump and President Putin will meet on Yournut
Or
> Yesterday PT and PP had a meeting in Panties

Meanwhile our Fidesz/govt. media is full on telling us the meeting will happen.
I'd also expect Tucker Carlson appearing here, he already visited Hungary and made an interview with Putin, he might do another one here.

Michael von der Schulenburg (mainly him) and Jeff Sachs on Neutrality Studies, about how the EU is a paper tiger
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU
In support of Ukraine:
> all the things we do are illusionary

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Due to Legend mentioned and article by an author on substack I decided to read it:
https://substack.com/@bigserge/p-176674862
Indeed it is very interesting. 
About the Tomahawks Pascal says something similar in this:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=jb1IuSqzEak
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jb1IuSqzEak

What I'm disagreeing on with Big Serge is Pokrovsk. He really downplays its importance, and ignores it entirely in the upcoming campaign in the envelopment of the Banana. See both picrels, first is directly from his substack, second is my edit.
I think Russia rather acquires a logistical hub at Pokrovsk-Myrnograd (like Bakhmut NE of here) and attack on a wider surface. Or even more wider than that: from somewhere between Zaporozhia city and Orikhiv in an arc where the "Main Supply Routes" arrow points to the western green road (N-NW of Pokrovsk).
I'm fairly sure they don't want to level the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration so obviously cutting the main supply lines is a great start to gaining the last bastion of Donetsk oblast. They don't really have to capture the green roads, I think its enough if the front sits on them.
But to get to it, Pokrovsk is a #1 priority.
I do think that each group of forces has its own #1 priority, it would be cool to draw 'em on the map. I've no time to fiddle with it sadly.
Then all the group of forces has the goal to "liberate" Donetsk, the last of the puzzle will be the two towns. I don't think that'll happen in 2026. A lot of prerequisite for that to happen.
And the SMO has the goal of "demilitarizing" and "denazifying" Ukraine, above all this.
Baud wrote that the denazification was achieved with the capture of Mariupol, because they wanted to denazify there. I'm not sure how they could denazify Lvov for that matter, so they probably tick that box.
And the same author also wrote the demilitarization was also achived like four times over: RuAF destroyed the original equipment they had, then the donated old Soviet equipment, then the old NATO stuff, then the new NATO stuff, and now the West supplies Ukraine on "as fast as we can produce" basis. Attrition deals with this issue, but attrition should force Ukraine to the point where can't defend no more, and then force the disarmament and no NATO demand on them.
At least this is how I picture at the moment what the Kremlin dreams of.

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Trump just can't leave himself out of creating that sweet sweet security dilemma.

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Taken from AMK's Twitter.
I have no brilliant insight on this, I just find it interesting.
As the story goes, Ukrainian special forces are dropped of by a Blackhawk, then they get eliminated by FPV drones. See map for their movements.
As many commenters' my question is also what they wanted to achieve? Sure military history is full of miscalculation. What the higher command imagines what's going on there?

Related: heard on Fidesz/govt radio Ukraine collects various security forces, from military police to GRU and concentrates them near Pokrovsk. And even that Budanov himself controls the operations of them.
But how they put it I got the feeling that they are there to keep AFU units in check and in fighting in order. They did not say this, but I got this vibe. Perhaps they want to prevent a route and maybe even infiltrators to enter. They surely gained experience from previous important captures like Avdiivka, Velyke Novosilka, and the smaller ones (Bakhmut seemed different).

Dude visiting Ukraine. As a tourist. Starting from Hungary.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU

 >>/54788/
Alex of HistoryLegends made a review on the action. It's on his second channel HistoryLegends Fleshlight Flashlight Flashpoint:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs
Good points:
- more than one choppers, therefore more than 11 men, perhaps up to 33 with 3 helicopters
- from the drone footage can't be assessed how many were KIA actually, and indeed in many of these the camera feed goes out too early and too far away from the soldiers
- the goal might had been to capture or clear the intersection

 >>/54788/
GUR ofc, not GRU

 >>/54788/
 >>/54791/
Denys Davydov has a quite all right video of the same action:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8
It contains a longer video from some road made by a local, which features 2 Blackhawks, and no third one. The ambushing drone also shows only two. So they could drop up to 22 soldiers.
I think features in the other stuff I posted above that the action itself happened on Oct 29., I forgot to mention. Anyway.
DD says the forces dropped there were taken out several hours later.
His take on the situation in Pokrovsk also surprisingly sober.

I think the operators weren't for recapturing that intersection. They were too few, and with just small arms, the area is large.

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Front line changes on the Velyka Novosilka - Huliaipole axis.
On 2025 January 25 VN fell completely, the Pokrovsk front was already stood at Udachne.
Sometimes in June they started the march in quick pace. For about half a year they were slogging through fortified positions, wet spring perhaps (it is usually mud season, not sure how it actually was this year), and maybe the AFU was tougher too.
Last picrel is a gif, one screenshot of the situation on the 25th of each month, up till today.

 >>/54796/
Maybe should be called Velyka Novosilka - Pokrovske axis, since the general direction is that settlement.

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Germany delivered 2 Patriot batteries last Sunday.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63519
Germany only has six herself, and they sent 2 from these due to the promise that the US will replace theirs ASAP.
Prior to this since 2022 Germany gave 3 batteries.
All in all I think they have about ten? Nine?
A battery consists of a power plant, a radar set, an engagement control station, several launcher stations (each with four tubes which can launch 4-16 missiles depending on the type), and an antenna mast group.
In theory a battery is serviced by 90 soldiers, but only 3 are needed to operate the whole air defense fire. I assume the rest drives stuff around, refills the launch tubes or swap them (haven't looked up how that really works), secure stuff, and does the maintenance.
So NATO only needs to loan 3 soldiers for each battery, the rest can be Ukrainians. I assume the training isn't just showing what button does what.

Russia destroyed some launchers and other components. They claim a number, Ukraine and western analysts confirm way less. At minimum one battery of components were lost to Russian strikes.

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Here's the map of the Finnish mapper from scribbler:
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The%20War%20in%20Ukraine/091194
I overlayed to the Deepstate map here  >>/54796/ made sure it fits, and traced the red and blue lines.
His use of these lines: red - Approximate Russian frontline, blue - area in Ukrainian control.
So in between is the "gray zone", no mans land.
While I was fiddling this I listened recent WillyOAM video, a chat with AMK Mapping.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=HZy6WdWIEKg
https://youtube.com/watch?v=HZy6WdWIEKg
Matt said something that with the Finnish map made me think how this "gray zone" works.
I think the red areas where Russians launch their attacks.
The blue where the AFU has manned positions. Up to the blue is the grey zone which the Russians keep under fire control, where they surpass Ukrainian firepower with their own and where their foot, the "DRG units" can operate and try to infiltrate through.
It's kinda like the creeping barrage of WWI.

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Venezuela. Just a couple of thoughts.
So the US considers a number of states as "enemy". As we defined here:  >>/54313/ an enemy is a non-client regime that deliberately chooses to oppose the US in key issues, in their foreign and domestic policies both.
Not sure about the current list of enemies. Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela is there. Perhaps couple of African countries? Not sure. Russia and China are rivals to the US, I think the US has some level Containment policy in effect against both, but they also do deals with them. The US with the Containment policy prefers to shut everything.
What I think is Trump going through the list, and tries to decide what policy options to pick against each. For now he prefers more active stance than just Contain, Persuasion or Engagement (some of the policies here  >>/54523/ are universally true, they differ in detail from enemy to enemy). In Iran's case they decided to combine the Israel option with their own bombing campaign. And now in Venezuela the again doing air raids, for now against boats and narcos and whatever.
I dunno what's the most current is, I think a number of warships and a small invasion force is grouped there. We'll see.
What I think that when the issue with Maduro gets stale (or solved, or the situation changes in a way that it can be presented by US propaganda as a WIN) then we're gonna start hearing about some other enemy, I assume North Korea. Perhaps Trump will visit again, he will say he knows the Little Rocketman well and they are great friends and they have great understanding and Ukraine is not his but Biden's war. There will be some saber rattling no doubt.
And then we'll move to the next one.

JFC Trump is not in office even a year, he was so fucking much. God! Less America!

Millenium 7 * HistoryTech explains hypersonic missiles.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A

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 >>/54830/
He presents some extremely simplified mathematics to explain how hypersonic missiles maneuver and how they are intercepted.
What worth noting is picrel. AA does not capable to intercept within a circle. Depending on speed and the angle how the missile enters into the range of the battery the interception area is reduced and deformed in extreme fashion. Interception works most efficiently if the rocket is heading directly towards the launcher but that's rarely the case.
So if we wanted to cover everything... that's just not realistic.

Al-Sharaa  >>/54750/ went to Washington. Have to get the assignments, just like Orbán did.

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 >>/54834/

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Back to the Venezuela topic:  >>/54827/
Videos by James Ker-Lindsay:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8
He mentions regime change as a goal of the Trump administration at the end of the first one, and expands on that in the second.
But it's worth a second to watch the first one as he shows how the "drug problem" got militarized/"securitized" and elevated from a health issue to a foreign relations and security see Realpolitik issue. In my opinion they did to use it as an excuse to create enemy states from non-clients or renegade clients, to pursue hawkish policies. Citing them as source of the drug problem they try to gain legitimization for  military action, and introduce regime change in the country.
And yes, regime change is a goal, but not a policy instrument. Change to a neutral or better yet, client regime - latter is called Switching  >>/54236/. This can happen if the regime is removed and a new is set up, or if the regime changes its mind and stops opposing the US in key issues.

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In the second video he goes through various options. This is similar to Which Path to Persia:  >>/54523/
1. Intensify existing pressures, tightening sanctions, introduce sanctions on countries supporting Venezuela, isolating them further. Basically the Containment policy. Problem: they can't do that much further, and could cause such humanitarian problem which can cause rally the flag effect and strengthen Maduro.
2. Increase covert action: clandestine operation, encourage defections, assassination. Unpredictable and can backfire.
3. Military action: targeted strikes, special force raids. Risk of civilian casualties, and low chance to get the desired effect.
4. Invasion and occupation by US forces. High cost and long commitment for rebuilding.

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It wasn't the goal of his video to present all the options, but I have to add the US could try Persuasion and Engagement policies. With the caveat that Persuasion is a combination of Containment and Engagement, threatening with the stick while dangling half the carrot, and as previously mentioned they can't really introduce bigger stick... Ergo it's a useless dance.
Again the only solution is Engagement: lifting everything and re-integrating Venezuela into the world. But this they won't do.

As for the military options, which are the 2 to 4 options in his list, there are other options in there, we have to check. We called it hostile interventions, and as he did we can differentiate between covert and overt ones.
Covert:  >>/54316/
1. Coups d'état;
2. Punctuated military ops;
3. Aid to internal armed opposition forces.
Overt:  >>/54317/
1. Large-scale combat - doesn't apply in this case;
2. Sustained and asymmetrical attacks (airstrikes, strategic bombing);
3. Combat ops alongside local insurgent forces;
4. Invasion.
So all these can be used to move forward the desired regime change. Except for the US to act openly, she needs a legitimate reason to do so.

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I think next to all these are a covert option they managed to develop the Revolution policy tool  >>/54531/.
They support various opposition figured and groups, astroturf the target country, inflate and incite, spread opposing, perhaps forbidden and banned, thoughts, popularize their own ideology. Provoke reactions from the government to crack down the opposition, to commit unjust actions, or even atrocities. Which of course make the population suffer more and hopefully more angry. 
And one day if the people move to the street they might orchestrate another atrocity or a red flag event to push them into action, and if situation allows help them with their own troops, see #3 above.

Quick note. Alex of Historylegends mentions some numbers here:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=Uz33WHEcw_I
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Uz33WHEcw_I
now US sent the USS Iwo Jima amphibious ready group with
> ~4500 personnel
> including 2200 marine
compared, back in 1989 against Panama they deployed
> 27000 men
Then in October the US raised the presence in the Caribbean to
> ~10000 troops
And I think since then the moved some more units to Panama.

 >>/54840/
Yeah, they moved the Carrier Strike Group 12 with USS Gerald R. Ford  to the Caribbean.
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/display-news/Article/4329588/gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-enters-us-fourth-fleet/
> The carrier strike group will augment joint forces already in the area of responsibility, including the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group and embarked marine expeditionary unit, under a Joint Task Force, created to defeat and dismantle criminal networks that exploit our shared borders and maritime domains.

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Ten day changes on the Huliaipole front. More movement can be expected.

About the Gaza peace deal and the proposed UN resolution - how it is used to sideline Palestine, cut off Gaza and serve Israeli interests, all done by the Washington.
By Jeffrey D. Sachs.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs

Basically they are doing what I hoped they won't but I knew they will.

Colonel Reisner again, from three weeks ago.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow
https://youtube.com/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow
> Russian summer offensive failed
What did he mean by this?

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 >>/54845/
Watched. Better than expected.
He meant that the Russians failed to break through between Pokrovsk and Konstiantynivka at Zolotyi Kolodiaz. So he spins it that it was a main objective and major effort, instead of a lucky result of attrition. He either doesn't get it, or he tries to give something to be optimistic about.
Beside this, it's a good summary of the situation.
It is lopsided at the "hybrid war" as if Russia was the only one who engages in this. The fun part is that the West wages the informational war on its own population! Not many Russian (or Chinese for that matter) follow Western media to get told what's happening. Ofc other elements of the hybrid war - eg. heckin hackerinos - are directed against Russia.
Fun that he is using our boy Clement's bomb map. Kudos.
Too bad this wasn't translated.

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Kek, now Zelensky buys French Rafale's too. A hundred of 'em no less.
Is this cancels the Swedish deal  >>/54768/ ? Remember that was in intent too.
Sounds like they want to gain promises for the future to secure military industry funding.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251117-zelensky-french-arms-ukraine-defense

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> miranoharadu
Made me raff very very big.
Delivering emotional daaaaaaaaaaamage to some for sure.

Oh yeah, another pace plan time. The nth.
Le Monde says it was released by Financial Times and Axios:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/21/war-in-ukraine-what-we-know-about-donald-trump-s-28-point-peace-plan_6747683_4.html
FT is paywalled but Axios is not:
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
There is a thread about it here:  >>/news/28800/ not sure if the same text I haven't read, I assume it is.

As for the size limitation of Ukraine's army, they say it's 600K max. Axios says right now it's about 800-850K (I've seen similar numbers by other sources some times earlier), and before the war it was 250K. I doubt they could upkeep a 600K standing army. Perhaps with weekend soldiers included.
BUT. It is more important if there are any limitations in weaponry. What they can have or how many.

This one:
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
Isn't it a given that European fighter jets can be in Poland? How is this part of anything? Compared to this they cannot be in Romania or the Baltics? This point makes no sense.

This is fun:
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
- The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
Will European countries be allowed to buy Russian fossils or any other energy sources? Or we still have to move to USian LNG and such???

There are some problems. From the top of my heda:
For starters the most staunch and active supporters of the regimes in Kiev and Moscow both feels the war must go on. Potential political instability ahead.
Is Russia willing to accept the current govt, especially Zelensky as a legitimate party to sign it?
Would EU and UK sabotage the whole thing and push Ukraine for more war? Especially the UK is a notorious warmonger. But maybe Washington could bully everyone to stand down.

Still have to watch couple of videos I'm sure there will be some in the next couple of days. I'm curious what Matt is saying.

 >>/54852/
Thinking about the recognition of "de facto" Russian control. The fuck Russia cares about this. They are happy controlling Crimea away since 2014 and spend 0 time on crying about why the USA doesn't recognize their de facto control. So from the Russian point of view they are given nothing.
And. They don't want to leave some issues unresolved. From Odessa Ukraine can endanger the whole Russian Black Sea shipping. If I was the Kremlin, I would be a huge fugging building. Also would not want Ukraine to control to have that important sea port. Plus land bridge to Transnistria.
And. It is clear already what Western promises and guarantees and agreements and treaties worth. See: Minsk.
So I do agree with such opinions that Russia want to look like the reasonable party so they can blame Zelensky and the West again for the failure of the negotiation, and push more.

Also another party that might not want the war to end: China. It profits from both sides, by selling shit directly, plus gets Russian resources on discount, plus enjoys the US squirming powerlessly like a senile invalid.

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The Finnish map notes that the RuAF cut the Pokrovske to Huliaipole road at Danylivka and Radisne. AFU counterattack is ongoing from the villages towards the north east.

Fugg. Watching DPA frontline changes reports. In the past 4 days RuAF captured over 200 sqkms. That's 50/day
Considering Ukraine's monthly loss is something like 400-600 (15-20/day), this is huge amount.
Wyatt speculates this might be the new norm.

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Putin about the peace plan, translated by Michael Rossi, on his channel:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M
https://youtube.com/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M
tl;dr
For Russia supports the peace plan, but fighting on is just the same for the reality of the battlefield reflects that Russia is winning, and both Kiev and Europe either don't get correct information or can't interpret correctly the situation, so they don't want peace. Negotiations started before Alaska and they are going on ever since.
Basically.

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A coup, a coup, a coup!
This time in ... drumroll...
Guinea-Bissau
Picturesque description of the events by Le Monde:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/26/guinea-bissau-military-declare-taking-over-leadership-of-the-country_6747857_4.html
This is very typical for these African countries:
> The High Military Command for the re-establishment of national and public order decides to immediately depose the president of the republic, to suspend, until new orders, all of the institutions
They do it to preserve the legal order. Then they probably move on to declaring they are temporarily in power to oversee a democratic election at the end.
They say the president...
> aimed to destabilize the country by attempting to "manipulate electoral results."
...was undemocratic and unconstitutional and the military had to step in. Such cases.
Same happened in Mali.
As Luttwak states in his great book - Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook - African coups usually take the form of pronunciamento which is a liberal rather than a reactionary phenomenon, the purpose of the takeover is to ascertain the "national will". Always carried out by in the name of the entire officer corps - unlike the putsch which represents a faction within the army.
Worth to note, it's always some lower ranking general or colonel. There is a reason to this. See Luttwak.
It would be interesting to listen their whole announcement they did after the coup. Again Luttwak says there are traditional formulas, to pacify the population, calm down certain multi-corpos active in the country, to express alignments, maintain alliances, refuse colonialism etc. The promise of election is always a nod to Western Democracies.
And the reaction of foreign powers: always concerned, urging non-violence and elections.

 >>/54863/
Trying to listen the brigadier general's speech, but sucks can't find one coherent video in English, so a bit of here and the bit of there. So trying to piece it together.
Restoration of National Security and Order... ofc course they are.
Committed to:
- national security
- civil peace
- defense of territorial integrity
- independence of the country
They reacted against the plot aimed to:
- destabilize the country
- manipulate election
by local actors and foreign nationals.
In the name of preserving constitutional order:
- they decided to depose the President
- close all institutions
- suspend the ongoing elections
- shut down social media
- close land, sea borders, airspace
- exercise state power
They ask for:
- calm collaboration by the population
That's about it.

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Major General Horta Inta-a was sworn in as transitional president, with one year term, the length of this period to secure democracy.
Also the coupists say the foreign influence was by drug traffickers.

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Lars made another video where he shows the fuel price. It's the taiga but still in the European side. At two gas stations, he specifically mentioned 95.
> 73 rubble
> 65 rubble
Compare to these  >>/54734/
> 52 in 2022
> 69 a month ago near Moscow

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Andrey Yermak resigned among corruption scandal. The waves if shitflood reach high.
I read/heard somewhere he was not just a simple right hand man, but a gatekeeper, noone could meet Zelensky without him agreeing on that. I have no source on hand however.
Anyway just the most clueless naive Westerners can be surprised about this. These practices are most common in Eastern Europe. It's not like West isn't corrupt but they stack things differently.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zelenskyy-ukraine-corruption-scandal-chief-of-staff-andriy-yermak/

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Shit is hilarious.
OPLAN mon DiEU
https://www.defencetoday.com/resources/operations-plan-germany-oplan-deu/
https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Germany-Drafts-Secret-1200-Page-War-Plan-as-NATO-Prepares-for-Possible-Clash-With-Russia/
https://www.euronews.com/2025/11/28/germany-readies-massive-defence-plan-to-counter-potential-russian-threat
> “whole-of-society” war blueprint.
It's the totaler krieg again.
> envisioned moving around 800,000 soldiers and some 200,000 vehicles from various NATO states through Germany to the front line against Russia.
They can't even fugging move one French brigade through Europe. See:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk
https://youtube.com/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk
Moving 800K man would be a clusterfuck of ébin proportion.
And they fantasized through 1200 pages. Just about the length of that book where Frodo and co. trudged through Middle Earth into Mordor.

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Check out these curves.
And compare to that reduced interception area if the missile doesn't come directly towards the AA battery.  >>/54831/
Hmm.

And now I'm gonna practice my Cyrillic skillz:
OAeca
XepcoH
AHinpo
AoHeubk
yepkacN
KNIB
PiBHe
CyMN

What are the greatest buzzwords of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
- game changer
- red lines
- energy independence (this might be just idiotism, not a buzzword)
Ah, the cogwheels don't turn. Getting late, surely will come up more when fresh.

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Jeff Rich of The Burning Archive has a great series about the peace process on the Ukraine. Why is it deadlocked, why they can't make peace.
This Australian (historian and ex-govt official) has a unique way of seeing things, some I disagree with but quite a lot to mull over.
Three main ideas which form a trap they can't get out:
1. Five State War (not 2 but 5 participants)
2. Divided Executives (cliques and individual thoughts within all the participants)
3. War Termination Phase (everyone wants to reach peace on their own terms)

I think it starts with this:
Why the Ukraine Peace Plans are DEADLOCKED
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k

Why do Ukraine Peace Talks Keep STALLING?
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q

Then he breaks down each participants:
US - Why the USA cannot make peace or win the war in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs

Russia - Why Russia won't win on the battlefield only in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY

UK - Anarchy in the UK. Britain's Ukraine Endgame
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8

Europe - Stop the BLAME EUROPE Game to Make Peace in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4

Ukraine - Ukraine is TRAPPED in the ENDGAME of its Own War
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM

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Now that the Siversk front got into swing tubers started to talk about it, speculating with arrows all around. Said potatos often draw arrows through the Donetsk river from north to south, like if it's not even there - traced with blue in maprel.
I mean not impossible, but last time RuAF tried it they were clapped hard, I'm not sure they are keen repeating it. But maybe it's time, the Russians can judge to try it. Siversk is hard pressed and surely the last strike was coordinated and executed from there.
I think tho they'll just hug the curves of the river and help with artillery, mortar, drone whatever fire from that side.

 >>/54881/
Jeff Rich's proposal for peace.
7-point for REAL PEACE
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=s-BlCqRzeT0
https://youtube.com/watch?v=s-BlCqRzeT0
He asks a lot.
I do think he is right in many things.
I like the way how he views the issue: 5 state war - which means the peace agreement should be done between all five. Each participant have to make separate agreements with Russia, and they have to terminate their own participation in the war. It's not forcing Ukraine to make peace, like how Trump seems to do it.
The major historical parallel/analogy he cites is the Peace of Westphalia, which ended the Thirty Years War, which had three main participants - Habsburg Dynasty and their various domains, France, and Sweden - and their numerous smaller allies.
Have to look it up really. I have serious holes in my knowledge about this. We learnt that the core of the conflict stood religion, and that our Transylvanian Duke made a separate peace with our King Ferdinand the III.

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We can do better than imposing the will of the strongest at gun point...

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Surprise update from DeepState. Seems AFU tried to snip off the tip. I don't know if they really recaptured ground, or just pushed in with units most geolocatable footage is drones killing people and destroying vehicles. We'll see.
Watched some Denys in case he shares more info, but no.
Anyway they really need results, victories, that is short in supplies.
Meanwhile they had to give up Siversk. I write give up, because the Russian capture happened fast. So I assume Ukrainians withdrew. Watched DPA's frontline changes report and apparently the RuAF units did a serious flag raising operation, to show the world they captured the whole thing, and more.

Apparently they are disbanding the Foreign Legion and distribute the soldiers to any Ukrainian unit, mentioning assault units specifically. Even DD finds this idea nonsense, heavy criticism of Sirsky.

Watched this video by Vlad Vexler:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=zylBiCCEoxM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=zylBiCCEoxM
It's about Trump's 28 point peace plan. He finds the restriction of the size of the military a problem for it cuts into Ukraine's sovereignty.
All right, I get it. But if Ukraine joins EU, everything will be about compromising the state's sovereignty. Not one country in the EU, not Germany, neither France is sovereign.

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Caspian Report about the "Drone Wall". I mentioned before I've no idea what the fuck they mean by it.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=dcuCvRNqmpY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dcuCvRNqmpY
We won't be any smarter:
> What precisely the drone wall will look like and how it will be funded is up for debate as is the exact timeline for completing it.
In rough lines: sensors, radars, jamming tools, precision weapons.
He mentions acoustic sensors the Ukrainians used. I wonder if these can be fooled/jammed in some way. Organizing a concert in front of them.
Also USian lazor (Leonardo DRS and BlueHalo) weapons, 3 bucks a beam.
One problem: 4000km frontline... Adding Finlan was a genius move at least from the view of border length.

Radio said that the Bondi Beach shooters were recruited and trained by ISIS... On the Philippines...

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This 3 : 1 ratio of troops is so fucking stupid. Or rather how they apply it. And i'm not talking about:
> the attacker always suffers 3 losses for every 1 defender
situation, but when calculating necessary troops, because they think 3 times more troops needed for the hope to succeed. So some might suggest that 250K Ukrainian troops can hold up to 750K Russian forces just fine.
There is even a US recommendation to hold 1 km of frontline with 250 troops. So that 250K can be comfortably spread out along the whole 1000 kms of frontline.
But let's say the Russians only send 250K troops to the front to face the AFU's same amount. Then they take only 1 soldiers from every km - gaining 1000 free soldiers to place -, and concentrate them to one specific km of the front. There they can achieve a 5:1 ratio of majority with pitching 1249 troops against 250.
What if they take 2 soldiers from every 250? What if they take 50?

In WWII the balance of Germany vs France when the former invaded the latter was this:
141 divisions vs 135 divisions
3,3M troops vs 3.3M troops
2445 tanks vs ~3500 tanks
5638 aircrafts vs ~2900 aircrafts
Considering it's about an 1:1 match the Germans did brilliantly. Why? It wasn't about the full sizes, but how to concentrate them.
Data is taken from Wikipee for I was lazy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa

So pulling troop numbers out of someon's ass, based on the 3:1 ratio is nonsensical.

It's PICKY not RISKY.

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The fiber optic web on top of Lyman. I think the second video is the original.
In the first one dude says these are becoming similar to WWI trenches which were associated with that war.
And secondary use of fiber optics cable?

The... mp4
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 >>/54932/
> mkv
Fuck me.

A week or two ago in his sitrep, Wyatt of DPA changed his sitreps a bit after he put forward a theory about how the war is fought how they capture ground.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=vhocenrJeUY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=vhocenrJeUY

He says they have bases in various settlements, where they can house X amount of soldiers, and they send them out to the trenches where they clash with the enemy as they try to hold/capture those. There is a range where it is effective to send the soldiers, and at one point it gets too dangerous due to enemy drones/mortar/artillery.
Russians try to pound these bases and suppress the traffic that is going between the bases and trenches. When the place gets sparse enough, they try to move in "on foot" and capture it.

They say Ukraine will hold presidential election. Preparing voting possibility for those who fled the country.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66485

Breddy cool map to follow the war. Actually several maps by known mappers can select and compare each. I'm missing DPA from it, 
https://ukraineviews.org/

Along with Jacques Baud and Xavier Moreau this half-negro Swiss lady was also sanctioned by the EU. She has a very interesting and quite unsettling story.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=PXq89FryYzo
https://youtube.com/watch?v=PXq89FryYzo
The Swiss bank she has account at froze her money in Swiss Francs, and just stole the rest which was in Euro...
She can't fly to Switzerland for the EU surrounds it. But it would be useless to be there since the whole country is run electronically, and large part of her income based on her online presence, and she would be just locked out of every services.
Swiss embassy did not help her out.
Unrelated US companies refusing to deal with her.
Google demonetized her channel.
She's on EU's list and bunch of other 3rd party companies are shutting her out.
The reason all this because she is against France's presence in Africa. She voices her opinion against Francafrique. For the EU this means she works for Russian interests and they cite alleged ties to Wagner (and Afriq which is considered a Wagner front) and destabilizing activities.
She was already pestered by France and Macron back in 2019, he made Ivory Coast to expel her (to Switzerland). Her current EU ban happened back in June.
https://sanctionslists.org/news/eu-imposes-sanctions-on-a-swiss-social-media-influencer/
I guess she and the others still can go to Russia. Then the EU could say:
> see we told you they were Russian agents

Russia often presents herself as a power that is against the colonialism the West still practices. It's a Soviet heritage ofc, the SU did the same. And they support those locals who also want to get rid of the remnants of their former oppressors and exploiters.
But how about Europeans (the colonial powers along with Brussels) approach the Africa question differently. Are they so afraid they couldn't compete on leveled field with others eyeing the continent (such as US, Russia, and China)?
I don't get it how the EU could behave this close minded. I see the same parallel with those Russians who don't want to live under Putin's regime and try to emigrate, but tarded EU politicians like Kaja Kallas wants to deny them the opportunity. They literally prove to these people that it is true what the Kremlin says about the Westerners hating them and about Russophobia.

And there is the issue that it's just the EU Council led by our dear Ursula who issues these sanctions. As if they were some kind of despots. No examination, no legal process, no hearing, no defense. They are the prosecutors, judges, executioners in one body.

Watched/listened WillyOAM's video with AMK Mapping and Alex of Historylegends. All in all, it's breddy gud.
Problems: not really a conversation, everyone said their piece and they hummed a bit and moved on to next topic where they said their piece and hummed a bit...
AMK feels out of place. I think his medium is "paper" (in written form) so probably not used to presenting his opinions verbally, so he doesn't seem collected enough. Felt the same in case the previous chat with Matt.

As I read Glantz's book about the Soviet operational art I heard some stuff in this video that's highly related, but have to give it a listen again.

Motivated by what I'm reading in there I might look up the Winter War, that is Finland vs Soviet Union (1939-40) for there seems to be some parallels.
The SU had a hard time there. They attacked with mobile units with tank formations but they got wrecked and had to change their approach, reorganize how they operated, rethink the use of forces. Essentially the reality of war, the available tools denied the mobile warfare. Just this war.
And then Finland got defeated had to give up territories. Right now the Ukraine war looks like this will be the outcome. But this is still in the future, so we'll see.

I think Russian defense ministry is now coping for Kupiansk by declaring captures at certain places.

 >>/54943/
It is less important than South and Donbas fronts.
Also UAF moved a lot of troops to Kupiansk so RU army has made advances in other more strategically important areas

 >>/54949/
There is the thing called "too early". Just because a place will fall anyway, it doesn't make it right to declare a place captured.
Plus you can never know when an announced place will gets uncaptured, before it really gets captured. See: Kupyansk.
> It is less important than South and Donbas fronts.
No. It is very important to push on all directions simultaneously with similar force. Advance on main directions can't be achieved without the rest. So the rest is just as important.
Plus. The original separatist regions beyond Dontesk and Lugansk were Odessa, Dnipro, and Kharkov in 2014.

 >>/54949/
 >>/54952/
In fact the fact that Khakrov was among the original regions that turned against the new regime in Kiev makes that direction strategically important.
On operational level (on the level of TVD) it might have the supporting direction status, but not on strategical.

 >>/54952/
Well the South front is much more important, if they capture Zaporizhya they can basically destroy UA logistics.
Donbass is politically important (it is RU number one goal) plus it is the main stronghold of the East.
It happened many times during this war. UA army moves its troops -> makes some tactical advances -> and meanwhile loses other strategically important areas.

> Plus. The original separatist regions beyond Dontesk and Lugansk were Odessa, Dnipro, and Kharkov in 2014.
Yes, but (as for now) Russia didnt even include it in its constitution. Actually they are ready to withdraw troops from Kharkov region in exchange for Donbass.
And btw Odessa is even more important not only because it is a huge port city, but because it is historic Russian imperial city, built by Russian Empire and basically a symbol or Russian exploration of the South.

 >>/54954/
> Well the South front is much more important
No. Just wrote it why.
> capture Zaporizhya
The city? Capturing it would be a nightmare. It is very hard to fight in urban environment, and it would destroy the city.
> they can basically destroy UA logistics.
They want Ukraine to send more and more crap to the front. They don't want to destroy Ukrainian logistics.
Russia is waging an attritional war. The point is to destroy the war material - the troops, the weapons, the equipment. They put strain on Ukraine. They want to tank the morale. Ground made is a byproduct of attrition.
Controlling, channeling the opposition logistics sure. But not destroying it.
In fact one point of attrition would be denying successes, because it is very destructive for morale to see nothing but failures. So Kupyansk was really a mistake on behalf of Russia.

Schrödinger's Russia
At the moment I see two cases of this, a long running, and a new "situational". There could be others.

1.
A. Russia is too weak to defeat Ukraine and couple billions more money and another round of sanctions finally will break her.
B. Russia is so strong it will attack NATO and in a week it will march into Paris

2.
A. Time works for Europe, Russia will be forced to her knees just a couple billions more money and another rounds of sanctions, the war surely will destroy her.
B. Russia doesn't want to make peace consciously sabotage the negotiations, and throws out peace offers because she wants to continue the war.

Russian... webm
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I see parts of this video on the youtubers' channels I follow.
The captured battalion HQ in Huliaipole. Town fell quick. It seems only territorial defence units were in the hood.

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Not what I referred to here:  >>/54942/, but couple of quotes David Glantz's Soviet Military Operational Art: In Pursuit of Deep Battle. Pages 100 and 101.
Ultimately the Red Army successfully met this second great challenge and triumphed, but only after years of attrition, frustration, and an agonizing process of military reeducation conducted during wartime. Throughout the war a new generation of commanders emerged, new equipment was developed and fielded, and military theories matured
For the sake of analysis the Soviets subdivide their "Great Patriotic War" into three distinct periods, each characterized by broad unifying themes reflecting Soviet fortunes in war and the state of military art.* The first period of war (June 1941 - November 1942) found the Soviets on the strategic defense punctuated by several Soviet attempts to undertake offensive operations on several important directions. The second period (December 1942 - December 1943) was one of transition from defensive operations to a general Soviet offensive designed to wrest the strategic initiative from the Germans. The third period (1944-1945) was a period of general Soviet offensives culminating in the achievement of total victory.

I see some parallels with the recent war on Ukraine. Perhaps because these are fairly generic terms. But.
It does seem the Russians coming out on top, after they changed the whole process how they wage the war. They are reeducating themselves. And the three stages also stands from the period counting from 2022 April, after they lost the initiative as the contracts of their troops expired and they have to mobilize. Ukraine was on the offensive but during the second period in 2023 they wrestled back the initiative, and now they are on a continuous offensive. And the Kursk intermezzo did not disrupt this offensive.

Venezuela is getting air/rocket striked.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/1/3/live-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelas-capital-amid-us-tensions
Apparently Caracas got attacked.

I do believe US would do bombings instead of invasion. They have the force for that in the Caribbean but not for the latter.
I've seen a video where they discussed possibility and the terrain just sucks for an invasion.

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So. Maduro is captured, Trump says, and he'll stand trial in the US.
Is this legal? No. Will anyone hold Trump responsible for this unlawful act? No.
How Michael Rossi said: might not makes right, but might certainly makes things happen.
I'm fairly sure all in SouthAm shat themselves. Keep quiet fell in line. Even those who say it's illegal openly there won't be any real change in relations with US. Perhaps change to lick Trump's fat ass more.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/3/explosions-heard-over-venezuelan-capital-caracas-amid-us-tensions

Wyatt of DPA did a livestream on the Venezuela happenings. He said he started at the moment as news started to pour in, and he followed the events.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=9F0FAgY-0rE
https://youtube.com/watch?v=9F0FAgY-0rE
I won't have the time to day to watch this.

 >>/54978/
Still haven't watched this yet, but the recent summary:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=eeLWDApsa_s
https://youtube.com/watch?v=eeLWDApsa_s
He rightfully points out: they just extracted Maduro, removing him as the head of the country, but the rest of the Maduro administration and army is still in place. Why would that woman suddenly rise to power? Why would they do a "free" elections? I'm fairly sure there is a plan for the possibility that Maduro is gone, and there is a process or a candidate. Situation can turn volatile if the successor is not solid, or can't solidify his power, then infighting can take down the regime - perhaps with the help by a push on behalf of the US.

Perhaps Trump can find Maduro's replacement more agreeable.

There is an opinion that basically nothing will happen, Trump just used this whole thing for his personal image boost, and new Venezuela gov will just continiue Maduro old politics
any venezuela pros here?

 >>/54981/
Only me here so I'm everything pro.
What you write is a possibility, what Wyatt said (link above) and what my thoughts on it certainly goes towards that direction.
Plus in foreign relations the US has a number of countries with regimes they consider "enemy" and Trump goes through the list of them, and does something showy about it.
The US handles their enemies by default with Containment policy. But there are a number of options, such as Engagement, Persuasion, Invasion, Bombing, Support Inside Opposition (guerillas, revolution), and such.
So Trump did something about China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela (there was something in Africa too, I don't remember from the top of my heda). Next might be North Korea, or goes back to Iran as he returns back to China and Russia as well. Tho the latter two are considerably more important than the rest.
Perhaps Trump is fine with Venezuela for the time being (for couple of months), they can put some pressure their with scaring them with military presence, he can focus on something else. Surely there will be a big show trial to fill the media until noone can eat more of that.

 >>/54981/
There you go. Here's foreign relations exbert Michael Rossi, on Neutrality Studies this time:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=wEKWDTgHdso
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wEKWDTgHdso
Gonna give it a listen later.

I also think Maduro was given up by his own. I highly suspect some of his closest buddies got scared by the US force demo in the Caribbean and started to cooperate with them.
Not the first case in the history of US clients. This book I talk about here  >>/54224/ (and many following posts in that thread) tells cases when US military force was mobilized against some unwanted dictator, they did a little bombing and the dictator's own thought better.
Basically they threat with invasion.
I might try to find the specific case.

Why couldnt Russia do the same?
Bribe the corrupt politicians, kidnap Zelinsky and isntall puppet regime upon the Ukraines?
Well, actually they did bribe the corrupt politians, but instead of doing their job they built mansions and literal train dining cars in their backyards

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 >>/54985/
here is a dining car in the backyard of Medvechuk.
He was prime Russian asset before the war, he was supposed to prepare everything for the SMO, bribe the military, prepare the public opinion etc. But he built a dining car instead

 >>/54984/
> I also think Maduro was given up by his own

Yep, Venezuela actually had (still has) pretty powerful military and air defence. There was a traitor(s) 100%

 >>/54986/
Also, it is quite funny that they have a family coat of arms, considering that they are all descendants of peasants.
t.descendant of peasants and proud

 >>/54985/
Prior to the SMO Kremlin did bribe officials and officers alike. US payed more.

Selective diplomacy and selective liberalism.

 >>/54990/
and they just took the money and did nothing.
For example, there is an opposition party, Opposition Platform — For Life, they just took the Kremlin money and did nothing, they are still in parliament and vote for every Zelinsky law

 >>/54959/
Glantz gives interesting statistics while he presents the evolution of soviet warfare. He provides numbers on front width, length, depth, height, and even operation time as 4th dimension I guess. Force density and balance of forces is also on the menu.
Starting from page 99 he examines the "Great Patriotic War" chopped up into three portion:
1. the failure and reorganization (1941-42)
2. learning the new skills (1943)
3. refining the techniques (1944-45)
In each part he separately talks about Doctrine, Strategy, Operation, Tactics and the changes that happened. He gives organization tables of formations and units, plus map-diagram drawings of their operation.
I'll try to give the numbers here sometimes. Perhaps make a table in Excel libre office calc and screenshot it or something. It might be a problem that he doesn't give the numbers consistently, some of it contradictory, and also some circumstantial and not general.
For example states the density in case of #1 (1941-42) and #3 (1944-45) on tactical level, but not at #2 (1942-43).

> we're gonna monitor the situation
Good one.

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So let me get this straight.
Last year, there was a big hype about the Nobel peace prize, for Trump wanted it so bad, and started to claim he want to get it. Everyone repeated it and half the world rejoiced he did not get it and half was angry about it. Actually barely anyone gave a shit, except the media and social media can make enough noise to give this perception.
Coincidentally that lady from Venezuela got it, because evil Maduro. I doubt anyone can remember any other prize winners from other fields (probably the professionals of each fields). Or do we even know who were the other candidates?
https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2025
> The list of nominees for the Nobel Peace Prize is released 50 years after the prize is awarded, in accordance with the statutes of the Nobel Foundation.
Oh.
There are a number of leaked ones on Wikipedia. Not sure if it's a reliable list.

Anyway, the whole thing sounds like a psyop to lay the foundations for a Venezuelan intervention for the United States. If Bernd remembers the US needs a general international acceptance before she starts an overt intervention:  >>/54315/  >>/54317/ . They need something that shows the pariah status of the target whom noone talks to. That gives a legal veneer for their actions.
They made people remember that the Maduro regime is anti-democratic, cheated on the election, that they are violating human rights. During the military buildup they also branded the country as narco-terrorist.
I do think Machado's Nobel victory - and the Trump hype was part of this, they used it to create an acceptance, a placidity.
I also think Trump talked about this with Putin, perhaps with India and China too, and bartered some kind of deal.
> We want Venezuela, we don't give the 'hawks to Zelensky
Or something like that.

 >>/54997/
https://youtube.com/watch?v=0goMvXcnQHk

 >>/54998/
Is this some kind of anime?

Ah, it's a CS mod or something.

Syria is heating up again.
Govt forces clash with SDF.
Lots of Allahu Akbars again.

 >>/55003/
Hello here are videos xDDD?

 >>/55005/
*where

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Will the Iranian protests turn into revolution?
It was an option back then:  >>/54531/ tho as they noted they did not really know how to do that. Since then quite some revolutions were nudged to succeed, I bet it was elevated to actual foreign policy instrument.
Listening Wyatt of DPA summary, he talks about Iran too:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=GfDRMdHk5YE
https://youtube.com/watch?v=GfDRMdHk5YE
Relevant part starts about 20:00 mins.

It does seem like countries where Russia had interest fall.
Syria, Venezuela, and now Iran?
Tho I think we should not overestimate the problems this could cause to Russia. It's just their area of operation gets reduced. But another way of looking it: perhaps Russia had no resources to maintain its presence and influence in these places, so US is able to make these moves.

 >>/55005/
Somewhere they surely are. Here's two.

 >>/55007/
Btw, last time they hated the shah and his kid, so thinking the Pahlevi will return is most likely a mistake. They are less popular than the ayatollah.

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I think there is a bit of misunderstanding how the US operates.
People see a strike on Venezuela and extrapolate what country next, countries the US might have some disagreement, like Brazil.
The US has a number of enemies. An enemy they define as a non-client regime that deliberately chooses to oppose the US in key issues (both in their domestic and foreign policies).
There are the big ones, like Tschainuh and Russia. And some smaller one like Iran, North Korea, Venezuela. And the Arch Nemesis: Cuba. There might be others in Africa, I mentioned previously I need to look this up.

Brazil is still a client state. Sure they have some disagreement with the Trump administration, but their situation is far from Venezuela. I think the same went for Hungary under the Biden admin, when our govt. vocally disagreed with Washington on a number of issues such as Ukraine. However prior to that it not felt that we are a client of the USA, today it feels very much so. And in those years here there were people - fanboys of the opposition whoever was the opposition at the time - who hoped the US will intervene here somehow, like support a color-type of revolution and overthrow the Orbán govt. They never did. One could suggest Orbán overthrew the US govt. and installed his puppet, Trump...:^)

Venezuela seems like a bit of outlier compared to the rest of the enemies. The kidnapping of Maduro sounds more like "jettisoning the president" type of client maintenance intervention described here:  >>/54270/ than anything they do in case of hostile interventions. It's very much comparable to the case of Panama/Noriega in 1990 (January 3rd). And the voices following this situation suggest that even if the following government won't be from the opposition, so they keep the current gang of oligarchs, they will very much so cooperate with the US in the fashion of a client.

The US creates clients with the method called "switching" noted here:  >>/54236/ and the example mentioned there is the overthrow of Mosaddegh in Iran in 1953, by the CIA and the help of the UK.
In Venezuela seemingly there wasn't a coup. But what if there were cooperating factions within the regime to remove Maduro, essentially they couped him and helped the US to extract him. Removing a symbol of resistance towards the US, not they can change their policies working with the US instead.

Iran.
There are many problems for the current regime.
It's a multi-ethnic country with Persians only at ~51% majority. Islamic fanaticism was eroded by modernism. Most people is fed up with the Muslim regime. Many people with differing ideas, depending on social background and education too. They seem to be ripe for divide et impera.
However whoever comes to power will face the same problem. The shah (his son actually) is hated the same like the Islamic Revolution. And anyone else is just too unknown and smalltimer to gain majority support.
I think if the current regime is toppled and the new one is supported by USA and Israel, there is a great chance that this puppet regime will do massacres and oppression.
Otherwise the country might fall into chaos, or rather anarchy, some parts may even secede. More instability in the region.

Trump:
> they killed people which is wrong so we'll kill people which is right

 >>/55012/
Meanwhile next door, in Syria, the govt is killing people based on their ethnicity, people who had been supported by the US itself, Trump never blinks an eye.

map-of-ethnic-groups-... jpg
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 >>/55013/
Makes me wonder. Yes I'm wonder. Will they offer the Kurds a free Kurdistan from Iran if they take up arms against the Ayatollah?
> well dear Kurds, this thing doesn't work out in Syria but maybe we can offer you somethin

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 >>/55011/
 >>/55014/
Matt aired a good video about Iran. I saw picrel screenshotted there.
> Freedom to peak, to gather, to travel
> into the EU
> because we need more Shias and Sunnis killing each other on the streets of Paris
Kneeway.
First thing first.
I think while there is a strong anti-establishment feeling in most of the population, the events are helped from the outside, by USA and Israel. I also think Israel has a strong presence - the system in Iran is corrupt (Israel has a lot to do with this too), and last years bombing campaign was also preceded by working on the human foundation. As noted before  >>/55007/ the USA has plans on creating an upheaval in Iran for a long time.
The US and Israel are rocking the boat, because they know that last years glorious bombing did only postpone the development of nuclear capabilities I won't write bomb because we don't know if they wanted to make a bomb. They got some time, but they have to do something about it. The quoted book also stresses this matter.
I do believe Iran would go through a change that dissolve the Islamic Revolution and it's grip on the country if left alone. Younger generations who will inherit the country, they aren't so enthusiastic about it. But this would be a long process.
I also think that Iranian population has little fondness towards the US and Israel, and that the following regimes would push for nuclear capabilities too bomb? we don't know.
Neighbours also aren't fond of Iran, and they are wary if Iran seeks nuclear weaponry. But I'm not sure they'd want a failed state Iran.
And then the question of China and oil left. Could China exploit the situation more or less? They are the main buyer of Iranian oil, and the Iranian govt is depending more and more on them.
Also worth weigh: each adventure for the US costs money.

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Glantz and the Soviet art of war again.
He goes in chronological order to review what the Soviet thought and wrote about the war. During the Cold War they obviously gave a lot of thought about nuclear war.
First they maintained their views on warfare how they experienced it in their Great Patriotic War (great ground force maneuvers). Then from the '60s effected by nuclear weapons they dropped all this and claimed that the next war will be nuclear and these weapons will decide everything. But as they observed the events around and how the world lived in the shadow of MAD, they believed there is a decisive place for conventional weapons still, and in the '80s they formulated the thought of war in a "nuclear-scared" environment where everyone abstain from the use of nukes out of fear. Still they cautiously stated if such war is fought and NATO gets beaten they might resort to their use.
They realized couple of things.
The key to victory is offensive just as ever.
To achieve success they need to achieve surprise first. Utmost surprise.
They preferred armoured units for their protection against radiation.
The units have to be dispersed, no concentrated attacks for just one nuke and the whole group can be taken out.
No echelon buildup. The use of second echelon/reserves is circumstantial. First echelon has to be beefed to deliver a good punch.
Lightning fast attacks along the whole front, but no springboards right on the front but from further back.
Deep penetration of enemy lines fast, often hundreds of kilometers. Have to disable nuclear capabilities.
Air assaults (conventional and nuclear if need be), combined with airmobile unit drops.
The gaps between the dispersed attacking ground units can be held by fire (conventional and nuclear if need be).

It does remind me of the initial phase of the war on Ukraine.

picrel is front operations against unprepared defense
CAA = Combined Arms Army
TA = Tank Army
TD = Tank Division (in the reserves, not how small it is)
ABN DIV = Airborne Division

Check this quote
These concepts were developed in the 1970s and early 1980s when tactical nuclear weapons posed the greatest potential threat on the battlefield. In the mid-1980s the Soviets have recognized the growing threat of high precision weaponry and other high technological weapons systems. Their initial response has been to accentuate those trends of the 1970s by stressing heavier single echelons, more rapid tactical and operational maneuver, and greater tactical flexibility by small units. One author has noted that, although basic offensive principles still apply, greater premium would have to be placed on the importance of surprise actions, maneuver of subunits and fires, sharp and continuous cooperation, skill in concealing from the enemy one's intentions, and firm continuous command and control.50 Another has added "the revived capabilities of the battalion, and the increased significance of independent operations of subunits, naturally places great demands on the commander."51 These and similar assertions indicate an increased Soviet concern for tailoring more carefully at the battalion and regimental level and a concomitant concern for more initiative and flexibility on the part of their commanders at these levels.

Now this one. This is interesting for a hypothetical war against NATO.
Based upon these conclusions, in the event of war the Soviets would seek to achieve surprise by using deception to a maximum extent while politically trying to undermine the unity and resolve of the coalition itself. They would attempt to preempt or disrupt strategic (theater) defenses and preempt the use or limit the effectiveness of enemy nuclear weapons and precision-guided munitions (PGMs) by launching a massive ground offensive, by emphasizing early neutralization of enemy nuclear delivery means, and by attacking, using operational and tactical techniques designed to disrupt enemy command and control and produce paralysis and confusion in enemy ranks. A clear Soviet focus would be to force the capitulation of one or more of the weaker members of the enemy coalition. To accomplish these ambitious aims the Soviets must keep forward-area forces in a high state of readiness, furnished with first-rate equipment. Combat forces must be backed up by a logistical capability sufficient to sustain operations for the duration of the initial strategic and - because the potential for protracted operations is recognized — until the defense industrial sector is fully mobilized and producing key materiel and equipment (i.e., 60-90 days). The Soviets must achieve parity or superiority in the strategic and tactical nuclear realm, and because of the necessity to effect speed and surprise, they must abandon large-scale advanced mobilization and reinforcement of forward area forces prior to war. Forward area forces must be capable of attacking on short notice with only limited redeployment and regrouping. Maximum use of cover and deception is essential, and forces must be structured for and capable of conducting high speed deep operations. The Soviets feel they have achieved the bulk of these prerequisites.

There are some details.
> force the capitulation of one or more of the weaker members of the enemy coalition.
Sounds like the Baltics today.
> until the defense industrial sector is fully mobilized and producing key materiel and equipment
I think Russia's industry now already at this level - at least suitable for the war ongoing. But further on?
And this is the thing. After hearing Western officials that Russia will attack NATO and can march into Paris... does current year Russia sounds like that would be capable to do what Soviet theoreticians drew up?
Especially current year's technological environment? There is a reason why they are slogging and using micro-unit tactics, attack columns just aren't suitable.

Lots of good details in this book  >>/54959/. Worth a read. Supplements Baud's book as well.

Mentioned here Wyatt's theory how he imagines fights are fought here  >>/54934/
Perhaps we also should view the frontline based on that as well, because reports of fights are coming from the local HQs, they are reporting to the command of their parent unit. They report the locations where they are coming in contact with the enemy. Liek X woods, or Y road, or Z groups of houses. Except they can give gps coordinates.
But if we want to project their view onto a map, we more likely to get contact areas, instead of contact line. This could also help to solve the grey zone riddle. Ofc they still use grey zone as a way to hide captures.

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This shit is hilarious. Macron tweeted this yesterday.
> coalition of the willing
> standing up for European countries sovereignty
The first one backstabbing Europe will be the Brits. Then the Anglos allied with the Russians will destroy Europe again as they do in the first half of each century for the third time.
Might be a good idea for me to put effort into learning Russian.

I think those who non-ironically say the NATO will fall apart are wrong.

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Syrian govt. forces moved into SDF/Kurdish territory. SDF militias are fleeing. Turks intervened, judging the short news.
Tom Barrack (US Ambassador to Turkey and US Special Envoy for Syria) says the SDF expired since they were formed to fight the ISIS.
Huh, apparently since when the ex-Al Qaeda HTS took over the ISIS disappeared from Syria. Thy must had do a really good job in counter-terrorism...
Also note how the other rebel enclave on the North (YPG?) isn't noted anymore, just disappeared.
The only separate entity is the Israel patroned Druze enclave in the south.
I say Syria is successfully incorporated into the US client empire.

Glantz again:
''This offensive scheme posits certain distinct requirements,
among which are:''
- the achievement of a degree of surprise to create necessary force superiorities and gain initial advantage. This involves deception regarding attack intentions, timing, location, and scale.
- avoidance of major attack indicators. This requires renunciation of large scale mobilization, extensive pre-war theater preparations, and use of selective mobilization techniques.
- reliance on shallow strategic, operational, and tactical echelonment to offset lack of mobilization, to reap maximum surprise, and to establish high initial offensive momentum.
- early commitment of tactical and operational maneuver forces to achieve rapid penetration, to enmesh forces quickly, to avoid enemy nuclear response, and to diminish the effectiveness of enemy high precision fires.
''- development, and proliferation to the lowest command level (battalion), of advanced cybernetic techniques to speed planning and increase the efficiency of command and control during combat.'

While the Soviets calculated with nuclear weapons first, they also see the emergence of precision-striking weapons. They did not know about such drone warfare that goes on in Ukraine, but those weapons are also fall into the category of precision-striking.
Glantz writes that the Soviet thought:
Command and control centers, key logistical installations, and communications nodes will either have to be hardened, concealed, or become mobile enough to move frequently.
And:
Operational and tactical maneuver will become even more critical, and forces conducting maneuver will have to employ more extensively basic raiding techniques. Specialized forces such as air assault, reconnaissance-diversionary, and enveloping groups and detachments will acquire new importance as well. In this sense, the enemy will be engaged and defeated not by classic penetration and envelopment operations conducted by deeply echeloned, patterned forces employed in a specific and limited number of main attack sectors, but rather by numerous operational and tactical cutting blows delivered along numerous axes, by vertical desants, and by strikes against the enemy rear area by ground and airdelivered forces.
Now desant attacks are basically nonexistent (except that Ukrainian one from last year), but they opened the war with such, and the rest still suit for how warfare is conducted: numerous operational and tactical cutting blows delivered along numerous axes by DRG and enveloping groups.

 >>/55031/
However they were very much thinking in armoured tank/mechanized/motorized groups. In fact they created the concept of battalion tactical group back in the 80s. And I believe how they started the war, the theory of the execution is rooted in there. Perhaps exactly this is what Baud explains, have to re-read.
Gonna get more quotes.

Let's tweet something:
If they topple the govt. and destabilize Iran the next thing they'll start worry about nuclear material falling into wrong hands nukes are in the worst hands already tho and dirty bombs and muh terrorism.

I bet some of these frontline changes don't involve "actual" fighting, but avoiding drones to establish a bunker, therefor a foothold in an area. Especially in the more rural regions - like in the corners of Kharkov.

 >>/55031/
In fact I'd go that far to equate drones to those nuclear weapons they imagined that would be used on the battlefield. Drones make it impossible to concentrate troops before a massed attack.

About the Russian gas ban - why Northern Hungary and Hungary sues?
Well at least this is what govt. media says:
EU Council decided to ban Russian gas by 2027. They passed it with simple majority instead of unanimous vote. They could do that because they dressed it as economical question and not energy security. Since energy is still an area that is sovereignly regulated by the member states themselves, there is a way to attack the decision legally.
Or something like this.

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Millennium 7 * HistoryTech analyses the Lviv Orestnik attack.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=LJlqOPT4Alk
https://youtube.com/watch?v=LJlqOPT4Alk
> kinetic energy turns into heat, warhead vaporizes

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Like every good 3rd world barbaric shithole the US hitting the tamtams, preparing for a fight in Iran. Apparently they are grouping air strike capabilities around. But for example as far as aircraft carriers goes there is only one there, this article compares forces (and reports about the situation):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/29/how-does-us-military-build-up-off-iran-compare-to-the-june-2025-strikes

I think the Syrian cleanup, country "unification" effort also the part of this preparations. Expecting Israel participating again.
Western news painted a dire situation for the Iranian regime during the protests, which probably had been an exaggeration of the situation to make Western population accept an intervention if that happened.
Question is... How much Iran could recovered from the bombings of last year? Do they have a more reliable cadre who can man the harpoons AA defense? Did they get some sweet tech from China? Or at least some not so sweet and mundane weapons? Afterall China has a reason to support Iran, make em even more reliable on China, for that sweet oil, now that they lost Venezuela.

Meanwhile EU (Council I guess) designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization. Probably Britain next in line to do that.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/29/eu-proscribes-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps/

This means two things:
1. they are creating the legal basis, the justification for the US to strike on a US enemy, making Iran a pariah state, pairing this with the "mass murder of protesters" making the regime pariah
2. the EU does what the US says, it's obvious they have nothing to gain with all this Iranian wankery which also means their niggling around the Ukrainian peace deal and the continued support of Ukraine also is done for US will I had no doubt, see the US Foreign Policy in Perspective book, this is just an indication that they are just willingless puppets.

Wyatt if DPA published a video of some war footage canned together. Good stuff. I don't have Tellygram, and I don't go out of my way to look em up on youtube or elsewhere so it's really nice for me.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=BO-WKE3_h8Q
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BO-WKE3_h8Q

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The war is now in a boring grind phase after quite a few town fell: Hulyaipole, Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, Siversk. Some movements but not much.
There are couple of places I'd expect the frontline to move, but it doesn't. Like here at Rusyn Yar. I'd assume it would be advantageous to take those chain of villages towards Kostiantynivka. But the front haven't moved around there since ages. Is the terrain unfavorable? AFU is too strong there? RuAF is too weak? Tho following DPA's situation reports where he notes fights along the line, that area isn't too hot. I see that mine thingy right behind, it could be a major obstacle, hiding spot, fortified positions deeply dug tunnels and whatnot. Oh well, Russkies probably know what are the important directions for them, the rest will move when it comes to that anyway.
Right now two places are interesting, but the picture is far from clear: at Kamianske (near Zap) and at Kupiansk. At the latter the Ukrainian counterattack run out of steam. At both places Russians are advancing. Again Wyatt notes geolocations at surprising places that DeepState doesn't dare to show.

Iran-US meeting in Oman tomorrow. Iranian foreign minister and Witkoff.
I think they have five main topics: nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, missiles, regional stability (ethnic minorities, political opposition groups, often with cross-border relations), sanctions.
Will the US arrive with ultimatum or do they really negotiate?
Netanyahu and co. are still shitting themselves so I assume they are putting equal pressure on Washington to what they feel.
The missiles are still a card in the hand of Iran. If they give up the weapons they'll end up like Libya.
I don't think anyone wants Iran having nukes, but that's the only (realistic) path that can give em some kind of peace. On the other hand this could trigger others to get on their hands on some.
China said recently Iran has the right to have nuclear energy production.

If Iran collapsed some rogue groups could get their hands on some nuclear material for couple of dirty bombs. I doubt this is in anyone's interest, no in US' or Israel's. Or maybe it is, great for scaremongering and more "anti-terrorist" surveillance.

 >>/55064/
So apparently it wasn't a face to face meeting but an "indirect" talk.
The representatives of the two sides talked to an Omani mediator, the Foreign Minister there.
US introduced new sanctions.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-protests-nuclear-negotiations-oman-muscat-32d621b98f7a3a68831f885d262bb70e

Reading Overthrow:  >>/55061/, got the Iranian coup against Mossadegh.
The CIA created quite a disorder by funding opposing gangs, and paying the cops who's job was to stop the thugs doing ruckus.
It's a pretty solid guess they are playing from the old sheet music.

Overthrow  >>/55061/ - the case of Prez Arbenz and Guatemala.
In the 50s starting from the presidency of Eisenhower, with a Dulles at the helm of the State Dept and another Dulles at the CIA If this is not a mob then what is? the idea that every obstacle the US faces is created by the SU, and that everyone who disagreed with them was a SU agent got really entrenched in the minds of the US elites. Whole paragraph from the book:
No evidence ever emerged to support that “deep conviction.” Not in the vast archive of files the CIA captured after its coup, nor in any other document or testimony that has surfaced since, is there any indication that Soviet leaders were even slightly interested in Guatemala during the 1950s. Dulles could not have fathomed that. He was convinced to the point of theological certainty that the Soviets were behind every challenge to American power in the world. So was the rest of the Eisenhower administration. It believed, as one historian has put it, “that it was dealing not with misguided, irresponsible nationalists, but with ruthless agents of international communism.”
This is still true today in the minds of Western elites and their hired pen, who blame Russia for every mishap happening to them. They do this so routinely that it's easy to imagine they really believe in this. Unless directed from Moscow noone can disagree with them. Unless not Russia organized an event that effects them negatively it could not have happened otherwise.
And ofc this can be used well to false flag too, but that's another story.

On today's video by Matt of WillyOAM he introduces this article:
https://ridl.io/can-the-russia-ukraine-war-transition-to-maneuver-warfare/
> Can the Russia-Ukraine War Transition to Maneuver Warfare?
> As the Russia-Ukraine War approaches its fifth year, the question of operational dynamics remains foremost for military analysts.
> military analysts
> retards
For Western military thought the non plus ultra of warfare is maneuver warfare and they see everything through this glasses. They can't imagine that there are other ways to fight a war. This is why they misunderstand everything what Russia does.
What they also usually don't get that for Russia, Ukraine is just one theater of operations, while for Ukraine this is the whole war for them. Sure Russia don't have to fight openly on other theaters, but they still exists for the Russian view of their own military issues.
Otherwise it's an interesting article.
> Russian troops advance in small units 
Oh really? Not meatwave banzai attacks?
And yes this "reconnaissance-strike complex" is very important. Basically the drones and all the tactics built around them took the place of nuclear weapons (or at least how the Soviet imagined their use)  >>/55049/

> Death of the Conventional Frontline
I think this is a non-issue. This seems to be so because everyone takes maps a hint more seriously as they should. Again kudos goes to Wyatt of DPA who uses two overlapping maps, the reports of the two MoDs, and geolocated footages - and says it's all for entertainment purposes. He says:
> MoD "A" declares capture
> geolocated footage here so we know "B" army operates here
etc.
Here I mentioned an idea  >>/55023/ of contact areas instead of contact line. There are no lines in reality, they only exists on maps.

 >>/55083/
Matt's video:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=iOEME69N5EY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=iOEME69N5EY
Quoted RUSI article (he quotes this quite a while now):
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
And AMK's tweet that probably inspired the video.
https://xcancel.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/2023642707089125802

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Similar to the Russopherenia/Shrödinger's Russia on the Hungary a new dichotomy arose in the governmental communication: Schrödinger's Europe. It was already forming but I think Rubio's visit in Münich and Budapest gave it a final push.
It's the view that Europe prepares for war with massive rearmament and remilitarization and wants to go to war against Russia while dodging rearmament as NATO demands at the same time.
The difference is that they actually noticed the contrary nature of the two statements and they try to bridge it (occasionally) by claiming they are doing it wrong.

> genies of Mozard
> great cathedral of colon

 >>/55085/
Doublethink! This is the word I was looking for. So on our behalf it's not yet that much of a doublethink.

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The military buildup continues around Iran by the USA. It looks like they are ready to go in for a second round. In theory they are still having talks.
Interesting little video.
Tried to look up current polls, but wasn't easy to find. I get the impression Tucker Carlson is right when he says the majority of USians don't want war with Iran. Tho there are other policy instruments and bombing might not included in the war part.
But Mike Huckabee's (US Ambassador to Israel) reaction tells a lot. There are lot of people in high governmental positions who don't give a fuck. I believe Trump gives a fuck but I don't think he could step on the breaks. Too many in his surroundings are hawkish.
However midterms are coming this year november. Half a year would be enough for people to forget a highly unpopular step?

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The Afghanistan vs Pakistan border clashes are lowkey ongoing meanwhile ever since.
Should not be forgotten that Pakistan is US client. Does the US use them to destabilize the region?

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EU foreign ministers are meeting today, the topic is the 20th "The Return of the Final Lethal Strike On Russia" sanction package. I'm really surprised they didn't pushed it through last year.
Gathering from the radio that our govt. will block it going through until Ukraine stops blocking the oil flow though the Friendship pipe. It's aligned with the recent fuss about the Russian oil issue.
Since I started to write this the talks reached a dead end.

There was a ~10 mins of broadcast block about it yesterday, "The same people turned off the tap on the Frendship who blew up Nord Stream" they quote Orbán's words he spoke at the first session of Trump's Board of Peace. They interview the under-secretary of the Ministry of Energy. Will take a look (listen) at it in the next post.

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This is how our govt. communicates about the problem at hand:
Hungary and Northern Hungary don't get their crude oil since January 27th though the Friendship pipeline. Ukraine turned off the tap citing a Russian attack, but both Hungary's officials claim there is no technical obstacle preventing opening it again. Both countries turned to the EU Commission for help, and stopped the diesel export (note: Orbán in his speech mentioned petrol/gasoline not diesel) towards Ukraine, and the Hungarian govt. blocks the €90 billion loan the EU plans to take to give it to Ukraine, Northern Hungary floated the idea of stopping electricity export too.
The under-secretary framed like his:
We have a country that wishes to enter an alliance but stops the energy supplies of one of the members of said alliance, taking a step what customary for belligerent parties. Meanwhile the center of the alliance puts the interest of the outsider before the member's. He said what Brussels couldn't manage to do - stopping Russian gas, oil, and nuclear energy - now they did it with a plan B via the Ukrainians. He ties it together with the election: Brussels weakening the energy security of Hungary, resulting in a weaker government, lessening the chance of the governing party (Fidesz) to win the election. Energy crisis however was diverted, due to security oil reserves.
Problems with Croatia:
If we can't get the crude oil via the Friendship we could only get it from Croatia via the Adria/Janaf pipeline. The maximum amount we ever got via that was 2 million tons of crude per year, the Friendship transports 5 million - Croatia says they can do that many.
Croats demand premium for the transport.
The Croat PM said they'll keep sanctions, their minister of economy said they won't allow Russian oil through.
There will be a conciliatory session on Wednesday, the two Hungaries will sit down with Croatia and see what is their actual standpoint - not just media statements.

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He cites two legal documents that ties Brussels hands:
1. Association Agreement with Ukraine, Article 276 - picrel #1
For this specific situation: Ukraine can't block the flow of Russian oil.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM:280101_1
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/agree_internation/2014/295/oj/eng
https://publications.europa.eu/resource/cellar/4589a50c-e6e3-11e3-8cd4-01aa75ed71a1.0006.03/DOC_1
2. Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 of 3 June 2022
Croatia must allow the transfer Russian "seaborne crude oil" via the Adria/Janaf pipeline to us.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32022R0879

What we can do, beyond petitioning Brussels:
- stop the diesel export towards Ukraine, this is about the 10% of Ukraine's diesel usage
- block €90 billion relief
- 40% of gas and electricity import of Ukraine comes from Hungary, 3 billion cubic meter's of gas (supplies about 3 million households), and 2 TWh (terawatt-hour) electricity (supplies about 1 million households)

We stopped the diesel export. What Ukraine buys from us is refined from the Russian crude.
We block the €90 billion until either Croatia lets the Russian oil in, or Ukraine restarts the transport.

At the end they claim that Russians did not hit the pipeline it did not get damaged, but they blew up a tank next to the pipeline.
The tank contained oil for Poland. This really sounded like a gossip

 >>/55094/
Fico of Northern Hungary cut the electricity yesterday evening. Well probably didn't do it himself. But the point is they switched it off until Ukraine re-enables oil flow. They did set a Monday deadline.

USA and Israel is bombing Iran.

2026-02-28... mp4
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Bunch of gibberish.
The goal is to destroy the ballistic missile capabilities. He talks about other stuff, perhaps it could be list all, fun rhetoric he has.

Again Which Path to Persia  >>/54523/

Yesterday evening they started to announce that Khomeini died in the strikes.
By now it is confirmed by Iran as well.
The exchange is still ongoing. Lots to write about, yesterday I followed all day, but I have a lot of things to accomplish today. Fuck.
For consideration - heard by Matt: one man fallacy - taking out one guy doesn't end the whole thing. The death of Putin wouldn't solve the war on Ukraine.

Pascal hosting a chat with Ambassador Chas Freeman (he was for Saudi Arabia in the 90s) and Michael Rossi, about the war on Iran:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=LYGPaP7M704
https://youtube.com/watch?v=LYGPaP7M704

The ex-ambassador is right. Shooting away all the rockets will enhance the scarcity of these systems. Does Ukraine have any Patriots left?

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Merz:
> We do not know how far the region will be ‌drawn into escalation by Ukraine’s harsh counter strikes
Wait. He never said this.

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I hear conflicting news about the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Some say Iran closed it down, but it seems shipping companies self-imposing the closure of shipping there.

I saw in the feed that US and UK tankers were hit.

The news:
Israel attacks Lebanon.
Cyprus got hit.
US F-15 might have been shot down over Kuwait.

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 >>/55108/

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The channels I check, AMK and Osintdefender both are sleeping and Open Source Intel is busy showing Israeli strikes on Lebanon - so I dunno which other channel could be a reliable source on the F-15 crash.
Some say 2 already are down. Here's a video showing one burning and dropping, seems like was recorded on two phones, might be real.
This is an other issue, which video to trust? Some - such as US, Israel, and China - has access such models that can generate very lifelike stuff by now. Not what people themselves can generate, but serious organizations. They could flood everything with fake stuff.

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Kuwait AA is effective.

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Wow. Pedro Sanchez actually has a pair. Finally someone from within the EU uses his brain.
Saw it on OSINTdefender. American comments are hilarious, talking about useless NATO allies. As if has anything to do with it.

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Some dubs the decapitation attacks as circumcision attacks. In this case it's not accurate, Muslims also circumcise the true believers. In fact this is a war of foreskinlets, all three participants lacks of that. Really sounds like if you have no foreskin, you are probably an arsehole.

There are some other fun aspects of this war.
Trump declares that the Iranian regime murdered tens of thousands of Iranians. So the US has no choice but to go there to kill some more. Tens of thousands weren't enough?
And the three lost F-15 fighters. Shot down by allied air defense.
And then the possible false flag attacks of Saudi oil infrastructure.
And related to this the LUCAS. See vidrel and picrel. If we see a video how do we know it's a Shahed?
And then the Patriot scarcity. There wasn't much in the first place, Ukraine had to beg for 'em. Now there will be even less. None. What will Ukraine get? Assurances?
And the oil price hike. Example Brent and Urals, but the rest also goes up. It's mostly good for Trump, selling it to Europe, but maybe Putin could get better prices from China too. So this potentially could help Russia out as well.

What's the point of this war really? Probably that Trump can't do it after the midterms.

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War footage by DPA.
I think two important things to note:
1. Iranian missiles do hit Israel occasionally, one footage is hypersonic rocket.
2. Iranian AA works. Somewhat.
How long they will be able to do this, its an open question.

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> Decentralized Mosaic Defense
Must be an interesting concept. Anyone wrote about this?

What happens if the US fails to protect her clients in the Gulf?

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This looks like an interesting account. Over 200K followers plus a fake photo. Probably an alias too.
For later read.
https://xcancel.com/JominiW
He posts stuff like this. Intersting, but perhaps paints the situation too rosy for Iran, like everything is under control. Even tho, what he writes makes sense, smells like copium at this point. We'll see on the longer run.
Suspicious.

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“No. No, I might have forced their hand. You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn't do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that. great negotiators, great people, people that do this very successfully and have done it all their lives very successfully. And based on the way the negotiation was going, I think they were going to attack first. And I didn't want that to happen. So, if anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand. But Israel was ready and we were ready. And we've had a very, very powerful impact because virtually everything they have has been knocked out now.”
They were standing with Bibi, holding each other hands, and they forced each other.

Heh, in Riyadh Iran hit the US embassy. That's kinda impressive.

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So apparently Kuwaitian F-18 shot down the 3 F-15s. What I don't get: did the IFF not work?
If the US is allied to a country and supplies the country's equipment there should be up to date transponder codes or however it works. Did it fail entirely on board of the F-18?
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/new_details_on_historys_most_expensive_friendly_fire_one_fa_18_hornet_defeats_three_us_f_15e_strike_eagles_setting_new_record-17709.html

Two Hungarian Ukrainian POWs were released by Russia, and Putin promised they'll release more or perhaps all.
Not sure if it's a good thing.
I'm glad they can be free, but this will have unknown effects. For example this might incentivize Hungarian AFU soldiers to surrender, creating unknown situations on the battlefield. Or make the Ukrainian command trust them less, perhaps giving them posts and tasks where they will be... expended surely, with no way of surrender. Could cause some funkyness that Ukrainian soldiers start to claim to be Hungarian perhaps some even realizing that "oh I have a Hungarian among my ancestors", I mean I'm glad the expansion of our nation, but again this could have unpredictable results. Perhaps Russian officers will deny real Hungarians based on previous fraudulent claims.
I dunno.

Heh, on DPA:
> HUNGARY & UKRAINE on the Brink of WAR! Zelenskyy threatens Orban's life; conflict over oil pipeline!
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=uCRisDp4D3Q
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uCRisDp4D3Q
He cuts a video in, some Orbán speech, I think I found it, he gave that talk at an economic forum. In English the word "force" is misleading, it leads Wyatt mis for sure.
What Orbán says - and he literally said this - that Hungary has no military strength and it doesn't features among the plans, but we have political and monetary tools, and we'll use these to force Ukraine to open the Friendship pipeline.

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Hungarian law enforcement (NAV tax office + TEK like SWAT) captured a "gold-convoy" crossing the country. In a van seven Ukrainian citizens, dressed in military fatigues one of them is an ex-general of Ukrainian secret services, transported $40 million, €35 million, and 9 kilograms of gold.
Apparently these transports are regular thing and up until today they smuggled(?) $900 million, €420 million, and 146 kilograms of gold.
The Ukrainan citizens got deported.
I have only one question: srsly how many more toilets these Ukrainians need?


https://index.hu/belfold/2026/03/06/ukrajna-magyarorszag-penzszallito-rajtautes-nav-kep/
https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/03/06/ukrajna-magyarorszag-zsarolas-andrij-szibiha-penzszallito-rajtautes-nav/

 >>/55124/
So from what I'm hearing: the govt. suspects money laundering and they are very surprised why did they have to transport that much of a cash instead just wiring the money.
I suspect Ukrainian mafia (which never ceased to exists) operates in a semi-legal way and the Hungarian govt looked away so they could do. I do think there are legal formalities there if they want it to be legal, but they are flimsy enough if they want to treat it as a crime.

A way for Trump backing out of this war is pointing to the US population, that citizens don't like it. The govt tried it, but its not popular. They have tremendous results, but the people don't want it.

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During the weekend Trump declared victory.
Iran lost to her neighbours and no need for UK to enter in a war that's already won.
With the same breath he also declared that Iran will be loser for many decades until they surrender or collapse. And some days prior he bragged they can fight this war forever with the weapons they have at hand.
So can we conclude that the war is not won by any measure and Iran is capable of resisting for decades before a surrender or a collapse occurs? But how long until US's patience runs out? They were in Afghanistan for two decades then left job nowhere finished, can we expect them to hold out more to receive that surrender or reach collapsing Iran?
Trump surely will be dead by then, not bothered by the Epstein files anymore.

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Daily Anti-Semitism
Trump endorsing two Jews talking about Iran. I assume they didn't talk about how starting the war was a mistake and senseless.

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So the conclave or whatever picked the martyred Ayatollah's son as new Ayatollah.
So the news that the members of the gathering and the Ayatollah replacement was killed wasn't news but more like misinformation. Not like anyone beyond wishful thinkers believed it true.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/8/who-is-mojtaba-khamenei-a-contender-for-irans-leadership-amid-war

On Neutrality Studies, Iranian dude, Seyed Mohammad Marandi.
Westerners describe him as a "mouthpiece of the Iranian government" (quote from Wikipee). He seems to have complicated background, born in US, but the son of Iran's Health Minister and doctor of Khomeini senior. He is a veteran of the Iraq-Iran war too, but got his PhD at Birmingham University. Most importantly he is an adviser to the Iranian nuclear negotiations team in Vienna.
So he seems like a person who will reliably represent Iranian interests and Iranian point of view, so some of which he says must be taken seriously. Like the one I want to present here.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lNZ_nta8NRM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lNZ_nta8NRM
Iran would not accept ceasefire from the US at the moment, even if Trump would say stop, and Iran would continue with missile launches and drone strikes.

 >>/55139/
Another interesting tidbit, but the conclusion has to be taken with some amount of salt:
Azerbaijan has 10 million Azeris
Iran has 30 million Azeris
Khameini family are Azeri
Many Azeris in Iran thinks Azerbaijan should belong to Iran.

 >>/55124/
Here's two articles about the cash and gold in Ukrainska Pravda:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/10/8024775/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/10/8024755/
From Ukrainian behalf there is a rationale why it was transported like that. I do believe the assets are halted temporarily until: 1. the pipeline debate resolved, 2. election in April is done
It's a same tool as the halting of the €90 billion, and the diesel fuel export.

Here  >>/54881/ I drew attention a breddy gud video serious about why the war on Ukraine can't be ended. To recap:
1. Five State War (not 2 but 5 participants)
2. Divided Executives (cliques and individual thoughts within all the participants)
3. War Termination Phase (everyone wants to reach peace on their own terms)
Generally it is not acknowledged openly that it's not just Russia and Ukraine participating tho Moscow says so sometimes but to be honest it should be apparent for an observer who invest a little time into studying the war.

In case of the Iran war, this situation is more apparent. Still not said openly by many, but it should be quite obvious. The war has three participants with their own mind. USA, Israel, Iran - where Israel is not a junior partner in this. It's not like how Hungary's participated in Afghanistan. The US has no control over Israel. They could put various pressures, but then they could have just avoided this conflict altogether.
And as Jeff Rich says in case of Ukraine, all participants have to make their own separate peace, in case of Iran they also have to. The US could get out of the conflict leaving Israel in, or vice versa. But they won't. Israel won't back down and the US won't be able to get out.
There could be ways for Trump he could cite unpopularity at home, or blame the whole thing on Israel, I don't know if he'd do any.

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Couple of maps.
Strikes on Iran and by Iran on Israel and the Gulf States - by Clement Molin
Strikes on Iran by a certain osint group Mintelworld.
And two ethnic maps.
> sure the Kurds will rise up and provide troops on the ground
> bombs the Kurds more

That ACLED project must be interesting.

 >>/55145/
Where the second map disappeared?

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Huh. Perhaps it's too large. Resized.

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Netanyahu gave a speech on Israeli telly yesterday or perhaps today early morning (I think yesterday evening). Nothing really new.
It was interesting how the talked about his friendship with Trump.

This is an interesting format by Al Jazeera. Would be nice to have all the days like this:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/13/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-14-of-us-israel-attacks
It covers each region/country within 24 hours.

News said Iran let out Turkish ship through Hormuz.

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According to Trump, this whole thing will be done by end of March.
> could take as much as four weeks
Now Israeli Minister of Culture and Sports what the heck whats he have to do with anything says it's several more weeks.
Not that we did not suspect.

Millenium 7 * HistoryTech has couple good videos about the war on Iran:
https://inv.nadeko.net/channel/UCVDkfkGRzo0qcZ8AkB4TMuw
https://youtube.com/channel/UCVDkfkGRzo0qcZ8AkB4TMuw

These two about an Iranian missile with cluster munitions:
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=Brcs-ZHd_Xg
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Brcs-ZHd_Xg
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=j0AEjx2-Z-8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=j0AEjx2-Z-8

This is titled "IRAN Could WIN!".
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=e5jv9pAo_oM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=e5jv9pAo_oM
Here towards the end, he doesn't understand why Iran did not do a preemtive strike. But it's very simple: because they have to look like victims of USian-Israeli aggression. If they strike first, Trump and Bibi could have point out "I told you" and could have legalize their actions via UN. Iran would have turned into a pariah state on her on volition, instead the US sweating bullets while fabricating the narration they need. Also potential NATO involvement.
This book I cite relation to Iran the Which Path to Persia >>/54523/ they note in there that Iran never acts overtly against anyone, specifically so they can play the victim card, and to not to give a justification for overt action against them.

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Fugg. Opened a new thread instead of posting here.
Here's this video of Iraqi insurgents striking US Base.
My concern is: its a long footage... where are the people? Not one soul anywhere.

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Map of strikes and couple of informationals by Al Jazeera.

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Do I get this right?
Is this the time of need where NATO allies should help but they don't, however the US destroyed everything and don't need them anyway?

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This is interesting.
Israel bombed South Pars oil fields. In retaliation Iran attacked Qatar's gas fields, some Saudi and UAE targets.
Saudi Arabia warned that they are ready for military action.
On baseline: what can Saudi Arabia do what US and Israel can't? I don't think this is much of a deterrence.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has a "Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement signed on September 17, 2025" with Pakistan. Which just might mean attacks "from the backside" by Pakistan. And not just by Pakistan, but perhaps by the US too. Pakistan is a US client, and these three countries (US, Saudi, Pakistan) has historical cooperation. Such as the creation of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the Al Qaeda with ISIS. Great job, btw.

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So nuclear enrichment by Iran.
> Tulsi Gabbard, the director of US National Intelligence, said that the United States intelligence community had assessed that Iran was not rebuilding its nuclear enrichment capabilities following US and Israeli attacks last year.
> in written testimony to the Senate intelligence committee
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/us-intel-chief-gabbard-says-iran-was-not-rebuilding-enrichment-prior-to-war

Tulsi Gabbard's opening statement can be found here (also see pdf related):
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/2026/03/17/open-hearing-worldwide-threats-2/
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/os-gabbard-031826.pdf
The actual quote:
As a result of Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was obliterated. There has been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability. The entrances to the underground facilities that were bombed have been buried and shuttered with cement. We continue to monitor for any early indicators on what position the current or any new leadership in Iran will take with regard to authorizing a nuclear weapons program.

About operation Epstein Fury. And the leadup to that.
In the Middle East, conflict and instability will shape security, political and economic dynamics in a variety of ways. The US led Operation Epic Fury is advancing fundamental change in the region that began with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and continued with the 12-Day War last year, resulting in weakening Iran and its proxies.

The regime in Iran appears to be intact but largely degraded by Operation Epic Fury. Its regional power projection capabilities have been destroyed, leaving limited options. Prior to the current operations, Iran’s strategic position had been significantly degraded. The US led maximum pressure campaign and snapback of European sanctions added additional pressure to an already bleak Iranian economy, resulting in mass protests earlier this year that Tehran suppressed by killing thousands of protesters. Even if the regime remains intact, internal tensions are likely to increase as Iran’s economy worsens.

While it's already put forward by some that the Oct. 7th attack was an orchestrated 9/11 type of event happened in a place which is the most surveilled region of the world when we look back 10 years from now will we see it as the opening event of a series of orchestrated steps to collapse the Iranian regime? Or going further, to inflate Israel as regional hegemon?

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This one is fun.
Next slide:
> trump turns around
> i dont need your help anyway

Iran targeted Diego Garcia Base
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/iran-targeted-diego-garcia-base-with-ballistic-missiles-rb7MdZW1CfwRTauDYHOt
> ~4000kms
> Europe is within reach

Article by James Ker-Lindsay:
https://www.e-ir.info/2026/03/22/iran-at-war-deterrence-national-identity-and-existential-stakes/
Found this very interesting:
This move has major domestic consequences. The more war is presented as existential, the easier it becomes to justify centralization, exceptionalism, and securitization. War turns into a matrix of legitimacy. The leadership can present itself not simply as the holder of political authority, but as the final barrier against encirclement, chaos, and national fragmentation. In that sense, the existential framing of war is not merely descriptive. It is productive. It creates the political conditions under which compromise becomes suspect and coercive resilience becomes virtue.

Lately come up this idea that Trump will claim that they essentially changed the regime because the people got changed. He can very well claim it for his mission accomplished, and people can only roll with it for nor Trump neither the further events will care about definitions.
But just to make it clear to ourselves.
Regime is not equal to leadership. The regime is not the people.
Regime is the political and socio-economic system of a state. The people running this system can and do change - die of old age or for example in countries with democratic procedures other people get elected into the positions of power and offices. In the UK with the hereditary head of state position and elected governments the faces changed hundred times over while the regime stands solid.

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 >>/55202/
He was actually talking about it.
> it's a change in the regime it's a regime change
Will they finally stop the whole circus with this?

So Trump said their Special Combat Operation can take up to four weeks. Sounds liek we got there.
US won bigly and now they stop and go home. Surely they'll.

Worth to note.
As far as US policy tools go, they readily escalate within one tool - such as committed ground troops they can expand it from a dirty dozen to 2 million or so, but they don't really escalate from one policy tool to another.
So bombing is one policy tool, an invasion is another.
But we'll see.

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He means the US was pirated confiscated 8-10 tankers.

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https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/03/17/zelenskyy-offers-1000-drone-interceptors-a-day-to-gulf-states/
> Ukraine is capable of producing about 2,000 interceptor drones per day 
> One of its leading weapons is the Sting interceptor, at $2,100
> By comparison, the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor is about $3.5 million.
> Built with a 3D-printed, bullet-shaped quadcopter projectile, the Sting achieves speeds of 340kph with the ability to cruise at 3,000 metres. It uses thermal imaging to pick up Shahed drones, diving down on them with its 1.8kg warhead at ranges up to 25km.

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Trump tweeted some threats yesterday. Then later uploaded this video. What did he mean by that? I don't see any info what that video is about. Perhaps others on twitter have.

I do think the Washington will commit ground troops. What will they achieve? Not much. They show they can?
Hearing everywhere they'll be sitting ducks for Iranian drones on both possible islands.
Historylegends put forward an idea where the US troops could land, in Baluchistan, there is the Chabahar bay, and open land around. There are some  ports there and an international airport.
Among other minorities Baluchs was one who could rise up and create problems for the Iranian govt. While they are the smallest minority in number (~2 million) their territory where they are the majority is large, and they already have a low level armed insurgency ongoing.
As I see it it is a place where the US can build up a large force and launch an offensive against the Iranian govt. Alex of Hlegends said the US could avoid using large amount of troops. I don't think Washington (and Tel-Aviv) cares.

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Seriously this fucking faggot posts these just to make some noise about the thing each day to fill the space because nothing else to report about operation Epic Fail.

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President Masoud Pezeshkian's letter to the American public
I found it here, it's a Paki news outlet:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1987606

Reasonable. Frankly more sane and especially more consistent messaging on behalf or the Iranian govt than what Washington does.
Two things can be put against it: oppressive regime, supporting the HHH. Cry me a river. Plenty of such things on the side of the US - she never had any problems supporting oppressive regimes, such as the Shah's after they couped Mossaddegh, and literally financed the creation of Al Qaeda and ISIS, together with Saudi Arabia, another oppressive Islamist regime.

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 >>/55236/
 >>/55236/
Are these posts for realz bernds?

Deadline is here.
Will Armageddon ensue?

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 >>/55244/
They are.
And even more.
Heh, I haven't posted the fucking strait. Probably doesn't matter if a "whole civilization will die tonight".

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Trump making the Muslim fanatics look sane.

Israeli airstrike destroyed a synagogue in Tehran.
Good jerb.

News:
- Ayatollah Khomeini is badly disfigured from the attack.
- Trump wants the strait toll to be joint venture.

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I've looked up maps on the Rwanda - Congo war as the one on the Wikipedia infobox is a year old. The war is still rolling, the peace deal meant nothing. Rwandans and their allies were stopped on their westward push to Walikale but made gains to the south.

So US is preparing to invade Iran.

 >>/55263/
Thanks for update.
> the peace deal meant nothing
As effective as the rest what Trump negotiated. Or take kudos for.

 >>/55284/
Ceasefire ends tomorrow and he will have the 101st Airborne and 2 MEUs ready. It's hard to say what will happen though, Trump doesn't even know what he will do.

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 >>/55298/
I'm reading he extended the ceasefire.
Either seeking an off ramp, or need more time to group forces into the region.
Some belligerent rhetoric too, check video. I assume he wants to keep ambiguity and options open. And later claim he was playing 6d chess instead of being a total dumbfuck.

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Another carrier is on the way to the region, it was spotted north of Madagascar when an aircraft flying from it forgot to turn off Transponder.

 >>/55300/
Perhaps they swap out one. But even in that case it would be a good time for all three to launch strikes into Iran before they relief one.

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Mearsheimer about Trump's diplomacy:
> he's made a complete hash of those diplomatic negotiations with the Russians, it's really quite remarkable [...] really quite amazing

Listening Hegseth acknowledging their piracy while accusing Iran with piracy. He puffed out some buzzwords.
Now the general talks about the 4 week special operation. I'm gonna stop listening I have shit to do.

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I think this gunman stunt was used as a distraction from the lull in the Iranian events. I expect more "loud" events when Trump will be busy tweeting on Truth Social and give speeches on telly and whatnot, looking busy and important.
This Iranian situation froze. Not much military action, they blockade, no talks. I believe two things can happen:
1. they move on, quietly focusing the attention to other issues
2. they actually preparing for invasion and they need distractions for the public.

I want to point to this book  >>/54223/ again.
While I like to talk about the client empire part, their main point (as I noted at couple of places) that the US foreign policy works the way it works because they use policy tools as compact packages they can reach up and take from the shelves.
They have diplomatic actions, economic, overt and covert military tools. They pick one they apply it, then finish up either with a success or a failure then reach to another tool.
So on this basis how I see it they used the bombing policy from the hostile intervention toolset. It failed. It is completed. Now they are blockading which is just a form of routinely hostile activities (Isolation/Containment) they default on against an enemy state.
From here they can pick another policy tool. They could just go on with the Containment. They perhaps tried the Persuasion option, but the Trump admin's diplomatic finesses is nil, so can't really tell if they really did this or not, they could use it, but Obama did that and they hate Obama. They could do bombing again which proved to be futile, even resulted in a setback since Iran took over the control of Hormuz, and pounded the Gulf States. They could pick the Invasion option (hostile overt military intervention), or any other but the others aren't really feasible (such as financing guerillas in Baluchistan, or using punctuated military operations with the Kurds).

What they aren't doing is escalation. They escalate within one tool (eg ramp up the volume of bombing or the number of committed troops during an invasion, etc.), but not escalating from one tool to another. They use a tool then stop then pick another from the shelf and apply it.

What I can tell that the Trump admin. consisting of a bunch of retards who think they know better than their predecessors. Turns out they never learnt anything.

The FLA and JNIM launched a joint offensive in Mali.

It's unclear what is happening. The Malians/Russians were held there positions in Bakama but then in Kidal there seems to have been an agreement reached whereby Malian forces were escorted out ands still able to keep their weapons.

Apparently the militants have taken large parts of Gao too.

 >>/55323/
I assume US, Westerners, Ukraine is backing them to lessen Russian influence in the Region. Gonna read about this, haven't checked on Mali for a long time.

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 >>/55323/
Yeah seems like someone bought the tuaregs to stir trouble plus started to back al-Qaeda/Islamic State (perhaps moved men and arms there to buff them up).
Attacks are happening all over the country. In the capital Bamako and the near seat of the junta in Kati, where they killed the Defense Minister Studio Camera in his fortified(?) home. Plus in the other large cities, Sevare and Gao. In Kidal the Russian mercs/advisers/instructors had to bargain for safe leave, it seems they had to leave behind their weapons.
The junta says they are in control of the situation, but seems doubtful. Reports says they are using drones to monitor around capital. I have no doubt the rebels have those too.

I think the attacks in large western towns were also distractions to help the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) to take over Kidal. Timbouktu didn't see such action because that's tuareg central (Azawad Liberation Front/ALF/FLA) and is quasi-independent from the Malian govt.

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The JNIM announced the siege of Bamako. How much is this a media hack, we'll see. They also announced the capture of President Goita, which the Prez denied with the help of the Russian Ambassador. From the photo it seems not just the Ambassador was there but some dudes in military fatigues.

 >>/55325/
Actually, it sounds like the FLA the one taking over Kidal.

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Zelensky says drone manufacturing will enjoy priority in the budget now that they get the €90 billion from the EU.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/04/26/ukraine-to-prioritise-drones-and-energy-security-in-90b-eu-funding-zelenskyy/

I'm fairly sure it's not just for Ukraine, but they got contracts from the Gulf States to help them rearm their air defence.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2r4wxdw3no
https://www.voiceofemirates.com/en/news/2026/04/24/zelensky-announces-drone-agreement-with-gulf-states-to-counter-iranian-uavs/

So how I see it, Ukraine has a product - or rather privately owned companies have a product but no production capacity, so the Ukrainian state will use the money that the EU takes as a loan and gives to Ukraine and build the factories for these companies to sell weapons to the Arabs and the Ukrainian state. The owners of said companies and shareholders surely will earn well.
This could take some time however. Plus surely Russians will target these factories unless they are built outside Ukraine. I guess there are some places to build them.

 >>/55329/
Related: rearming the Gulf States could take years. So second round of strikes might wait this much. The US can't allow the Gulf getting wrecked like this, has to arm her clients. Against Iran. Not Israel, Israel should be able to strike them any time without any blowback.

The war on Ukraine ended the coronavirus epidemic. Will the hantavirus end the war on Iran?