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> anal flag

> hammer & sickle

> the "g word"

Hue
As I understand there were many pro-Bolsnoaro demonstrations but also counter-demonstrations
> Bolsonaro losing popularity

It's not new, the opposition latched onto his based "semi-hands-off" approach at the start of the pandemic and since then have been hammering him for the mostly-worthless people that died, even though his policies did later move toward the more restrictionist international average
Also, the ex-president DaSilva was cleared to participate in the coming elections and evidently he remains very popular so that has also eaten into his popularity %
> What's up with the Supreme Court?

Dasilva's successor was a bitch from his worker's party. She was impeached and ousted after a huge corruption scandal involving among others the very strategically important national oil company Petrobras (as usual the US had a hand in this convenient "change of regime"). Along with her went most of the then acting officials, but the Supreme Court judges remained.
Bolsonaro has accused the SC of politically undermining his government and his reelection prospects. The SC says it's simply probing potential wrongdoing.
A bit more in that thread:  >>/rapport/23949/
 >>/44945/
Ah it's 404
The context was that Bolsonaro was not-so-subtly hinting toward Cuban security services having literally homosexual kompromat on some opponent of his which I can't remember, someone in the justice branch of government anyway, and therefore lideraly evil gommies where supposedly interfering in Brazil's government by extortion
Bolsonaro's claims where supposedly based on what his security service alleged, evidence-free of course. It was quite similar to the scandalous and inflammatory but evidence-free dossiers that CIA leaked against trump, and coincidentally the kerfuffle surfaced while the CIA director was making a visit to Brazil
A quote from the post:
> In any case I really don't envy the position of having to choose between

>  >kinda-right-wing zionist extractive-neoliberals (economically) potentially colluding with CIA for the N-th latinamerican coup, but at least somewhat socially conservative and willing to push a bit against the eco-fanatics

> and

>  >left-wing fanatically-blank-slatist welfare-state degenerates (probably, even if the video allegations are false), but at least more economically protectionist and less willing to suck Uncle Sam's gock

> Sigh.
 >>/44944/
> What's going on there?
Nothing. Bolsonaro had some rallies for yesterday and the left was saying he'd launch a coup d'état, but they said the same of military exercises on the 10th of August. He's too clueless to do anything, it feels like a power vacuum. The government has no meaning or direction and just drags along.
Early on he didn't bribe Congress as would've been typical. Since he didn't play by the system, the only alternative would've been to steamroll through it, which he didn't do, either, so anything in Brasília took forever to happen. Now it seems he bribed enough Congressional power, but has to spend this political capital shielding himself from scandals. Congress might not block him like it used to but the Supreme Court (which, frankly, has been a tad too arrogant for their own good in the past years) and governors are against him.

> Bolsonaro losing popularity?
Certainly. Aside from negative press, which he had from day 1, prices are soaring and living conditions deteriorate day by day. The left are skilled oppositionists and agitate aggressively. Nevertheless, like Lula, Bolsonaro still fields a core of dedicated supporters. Next year he'll try populist economic measures to get reelected, but I still think Lula will win. Voters associate him with the golden years in the 00s, not with the relative stagnation and beginning of the present crisis under his successor. 

 >>/44946/
> DaSilva
> Dasilva
Nobody ever calls him that.
 >>/44948/
> It sounds like Brazilian politics is not really about governing the country.
I mean the Brazilian neither. I think we touched this somewhere on this board. It's all about scandals, and outrage. While many people are falling into political apathy.
 >>/44947/
> Nobody ever calls him that.

I just did :^)
Ok, "da Silva" to be more precise. Of course I know his alias, but sorry I dislike the Brazilian custom of referring to almost everyone by an informal and (to me) excessively familiar name. Also it sounds feminine to me, does it mean anything in Br Portuguese?

 >>/44950/
> He's far ahead on the polls.

< Aside from negative press, which he had from day 1

Worth to keep in mind that MSM should not be blindly trusted

> A self-coup, like Vargas did in 1937. Obviously not going to happen.

I don't think it's a likely scenario. But I get the impression he probably has more guts than Trump (if not more brain). Also it seems to me that the military command in Brazil is closer to Bolsonaro than the USMIL was to Trump.
Btw, the libtard anglosphere media is already liking the conditions in Brazil to Trumps' capitol trespassers, and hyping a coming "insurrection". Tbh, part of hopes they actually get it. Not necessarily in Brazil, I'm just really fucking sick of the "liberal democracy" meme. It's become too vulnerable to faggy co-option by self-promoting degenerate "victim" groups, powerful interest groups, and oligarchs

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 >>/44952/
> part of hopes they actually get it

part of me*
Of course what will actually happen is that he will do nothing, and after da Silva wins thanks to the Totally 100% Unriggable Computerised Voting System, he will fence in the presidential palace with hundreds of troops in order to "defend democracy" or whatever, and then proceed to label the right-wing opposition as "domestic terrorists" and so on and so forth
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 >>/44946/
One problem with Latin American leftists is that they might be irresponsible demagogues who ruin the country in the long term to maximize immediate handouts, or intellectualized figures who devise bold plans that end up collapsing on their own contradictions. Lula's classical years happened under a form of liberalism with a greater emphasis on welfare. 
Another thing to consider is that their "nationalism" might be just a kind of Third Worldist or leftist internationalism. The way they ally with and support other Third World states isn't necessarily the one that's optimal for national interest.

 >>/44952/
> Of course I know his alias, but sorry I dislike the Brazilian custom of referring to almost everyone by an informal and (to me) excessively familiar name
A truly personal name earned through his own willpower and prestige, and which was legally added to his full name decades ago, is worth a lot more than an extremely generic surname.
> Also it sounds feminine to me, does it mean anything in Br Portuguese? 
"Squid". Nobody finds him feminine, though.

> But I get the impression he probably has more guts than Trump (if not more brain)
More guts, probably. More brain, unlikely.
> Also it seems to me that the military command in Brazil is closer to Bolsonaro than the USMIL was to Trump. 
Correct, as Bolsonaro is pro-military. This doesn't necessarily mean they'll use their muscle in his support. Back when there was a military uprising every few years, 90% of officers were apolitical careerists who never picked a side until it was clear who would win. Now the military has been quiet for several decades.
> the libtard anglosphere media is already liking the conditions in Brazil to Trumps' capitol trespassers, and hyping a coming "insurrection"
It's one of the two things the left has been hyping, the other being tanks besieging the Supreme Court and Bolsonaro becoming a military dictator. I find the former plausible sometime between now and 2023, not as what is was described as (an "insurrection" or a "coup d'état") but as what it really was, an expression of frustration which brings political militants to a dead end and allows their enemies to respond with an iron fist.

One thing Bolsonaro has in his favor is support among truckers. In 2018 they brought Temer to his knees and now some began highway blockades, but Bolsonaro has asked them to stop.
 >>/44952/
>  >Nobody ever calls him that.
> I just did :^) 
They even named a political ideology after him: lulismo. (It's fun to see such stuff rising in abundance from South Am as Peronism, Chavism - and I'm sure there are other special snowflake ideologies. Ok it happens elsewhere too, like Thatcherism or Stalinism, and sometimes here some say Hitlerism too.)

 >>/44953/
> Computerised Voting System
What a useless thing. It did not made last year's US election simpler, quicker, cleaner. But I guess it's a good way for some to milk the state's cash cow to set them up.

 >>/44955/
> One problem with Latin American leftists
They always sound bigger hacks than conservatives/right-wing militarists and such.
> Nobody finds him feminine
Him definitely. I think I mentioned what his name makes me think of every time I read it.

> truckers
Here in 1989-90 the taxi drivers were similar, one of the biggest opposition party used them as leverage against the first "democratically elected" government to make them do some stuff.
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Suppose your junta has toppled the government and assumed absolute power. How do you express that in legal terms? The first Institutional Act, unilaterally decreed by the Supreme Command of the Revolution in April 9th, is an useful reference, expressing absolute power in clear terms on its preamble:

What has taken place and continues in this moment, not only in the spirit and behavior of the armed classes, but also in national public opinion, is an authentic revolution.
A revolution distinguishes itself from other armed movements in that it expresses not the interest or desire of a group, but the interest and desire of the Nation.

The victorious revolution assumes the exercise of Constituent Power, which can manifest through popular election or revolution. This is the most expressive and radical form of Constituent Power. Thus, the victorious revolution, as Constituent Power, is by itself legitimate. It topples the previous government and has the power to establish the new. Within it is the normative force inherent to the Constituent Power. It changes judicial norms without being limited by the normativity that preceded its victory. The Chiefs of the victorious revolution (...) represent the People and in their name exercise the Constituent Power, of which the People are the only holder. (...) The victorious revolution needs to institutionalize itself and hurries towards institutionalization to limit the full powers that it effectively has.

(...) Constitutional processes failed to topple the government, which deliberately wanted to bolshevize the Country. Toppled by the Revolution, only it (the Revolution) can dictate the norms and processes of the new government's construction and give it the powers or judicial instruments that ensure its exercise of power (...) To demonstrate that we don't intend to radicalize the revolutionary process, we've decided to keep the Constitution (...) we have chosen, likewise, to keep Congress (...)

It is thus clear that the revolution does not seek to legitimize itself through Congress. It is Congress that receives from this Institutional Act, a result of the exercise of Constituent Power, inherent to all revolutions, its legitimacy.

This was decreed after Congress wasn't giving them what they wanted, and formalized the ongoing purge of the old regime's members. The Supreme Command's power was tied into existing legal understanding by equating it to the People forming a Constituent Assembly. Hence, they can place themselves above Congress and the Constitution. It is an exercise of sheer willpower: they wanted power, they took it without regard for the legal process and then decided what's legal or not.
 >>/45131/
A revolution is a complete rupture, they cut off all the ties to the previous system, but they still have the need to be legitimized. This legitimization is the source of their power, the reason why they are the ones holding the reins.
For the classical revolutions of the enlightenment it was easy. The previous monarchies they toppled, the absolutist autocracies ruled by the grace of God, the source of the power was God. The revolutions said, the word of the people is the word of God, and they claimed they represent the people, the source of their power is the will of the people.
But what if both the new and the previous regime holds the opinion that the source of power is the people (because that is the prevailing school of thought in that era, or simply that is the fashionable thing to say)? Well, they just have to claim they represent the people.
Now that is ok, but there was a practice already in place which was supposedly served the people to declare its will. It is a democracy (a version of it, usually some bastardized one), the elections, where people chose the governing group. So the new guys have to claim that the previous regime wanted to abuse that practice, wanted to eradicate it, which made them lose the trust of the people. They also have to say they couldn't take the road of that practice, so had to use the revolution to set things right.
Revolution is a thing like the total war in Szálasi's vocabulary. A tool that creates a new order.
But the coups only "corrects" the already existing system, the parallel of offensive/defensive wars - how Szálasi thought about those.
If we think of this  >>/45131/ idealistically, and suppose they were honest and had the best intention, they wanted to correct a deviation:
> Constitutional processes failed to topple the government, which deliberately wanted to bolshevize the Country.
So it really can't be called a revolution, and it is a dishonesty on their part. However they can't say otherwise for the previous reasons:  >>/45135/
 >>/45170/
 >>/45135/
There are different definitions of "revolution". Luttwak defines it as:
> The action is conducted, initially at any rate, by uncoordinated popular
masses, and it aims at changing the social and political structures, as well as the personalities in the leadership
But depending on context it's used either for the change of regime, in a scale of days, or for the transformation conducted by the new regime in a scale of years. Officers called what happened in 1964 a revolution and everyone went along, though nowadays scholars hate the word. It seems the military understood revolution as the exercise of absolute power legitimized by popular support. The first expression of power is, of course, toppling the government. Then they reserved the right to change the rules of the political game whenever they saw fit, as expressed in the Institutional Acts, 17 of which were made. They continued to use the language of revolution, emphasizing the first one's wording ("What has taken place and continues in this moment") and mentioning an ongoing "revolutionary process".
But certainly officers also believed they were changing social and political structures - sidelining the old and corrupt political class, including their past allies, and empowering a "technocratic" administration with new ambitions. A
 >>/45663/
The term "revolution" is sorta overused. It's a tool of justification basically. This is why I emphasized the radical changes in my description. I see Luttwak's point about popular movement, and it can be incorporated to what I wrote.
If I were among of the leaders of the 1964 coup, I would also call it a revolution, for practical reasons, and act as if it was true. I wouldn't even feel as a hypocrite because doing that would be necessity.
Here and now I can't call it a revolution. It's justification, and legitimization tactic. I do not condemn them doing it.
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January 9th was the 200-year anniversary of the Dia do Fico, when on 1822 prince Pedro, who was regent in Brazil after John IV was recalled to Lisbon by the Portuguese parliament, refused parliament's demand for his return to Portugal. He remained in the New World and would in time become Emperor. After a liberal revolution in 1820 the Portuguese were trying to recentralize their empire in Lisbon after the bizarre condition of rule from Rio de Janeiro. September 7th will be officially the bicentennial of independence.
Allegedly Pedro said:
> If it is for the good of the people and the general happiness of the Nation, I'm ready! Tell the people I'll stay (Diga ao povo que fico)

Except he didn't say that, the record was changed and the original declaration was a lot less nationalistic:
> Convinced that my presence in Brazil is of interest to the entire Portuguese nation, and aware that the wish of some provinces demands such, I've delayed my departure until the Cortes and my father decide on this matter
So he didn't use the word fico and even spoke to the Portuguese nation, he wasn't aware the situation would evolve into secession.
Independence happened with stark differences from anywhere else in the New World, and has several aspects poorly understood, or not at all, by the general public: the War of Independence, which left a few thousand dead but whose mere existence was implicitly denied for a long time, loyalist sentiment among many in the northern provinces and a strong pro-Brazilian sentiment in Portuguese Angola, where many sought to be part of the new state. I'm not well versed in those topics, just aware of their existence.

I do have plenty to write up on the 60s: the failed coup d'état of 1961, which happened on a similar playing field to that of 1964 and yet had the opposite result, and the relation between the coup and the local communists, the wider Cold War, the Eastern Bloc and the geopolitical situation in Latin America.
 >>/46533/
> happiness of the Nation,
> to the entire Portuguese nation
No Brazilian nation yet to address I guess.
What was his reasoning behind that his stay is in the interest of everyone?
What were the liberties the colonies enjoyed that were planned to be taken away by the court in Lisbon?
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 >>/46851/
> What was his reasoning behind that his stay is in the interest of everyone?
That's feel-good political rhetoric, it wasn't in the interest of the Cortes in Lisbon.
> What were the liberties the colonies enjoyed that were planned to be taken away by the court in Lisbon?
Since 1808-1815 they were no longer colonies and had the same status as the metropole; they even sent delegates to the Cortes. Dom Pedro was already an autonomous ruler in the New World.

Besides the bicentennials, this year also has notable centennials:
> February 13th-17th, 1922: Modern Art Week in São Paulo
(Used as a landmark for the Modernist movement but arbitrary, Modernism already existed)
> March 25th, 1922: founding of the Communist Party
(Most of the old Communist Parties were founded around this time after the Russian Revolution)
> July 5th, 1922: first of the 1920s lieutenant revolts
(Only famous because it happened in Copacabana, the 1924 revolt in São Paulo had terror bombing, urban warfare and hundreds of thousands of refugees and yet nobody cares)
 >>/46852/
> Dom Pedro was already an autonomous ruler in the New World.
Then would have been stupid to give that up. What was the balance of power?
> Modernist movement
Would be more fun if it was a political movement.
> terror bombing
How did that go?
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 >>/46866/
> How did that go?
The federal government ordered the indiscriminate air and artillery bombardment of partially revolutionary-held São Paulo. Later on some captured rebels, along with anarchists and common criminals, were sent to a penal colony near French Guyana.
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 >>/46876/
> The federal government ordered the indiscriminate air and artillery bombardment of partially revolutionary-held São Paulo. Later on some captured rebels, along with anarchists and common criminals, were sent to a penal colony near French Guyana.


Brazil always getting itself into a conflict or fight. With itself

Still, a movie or videogame about this entire thing would be ebin. I think Brazil is untapped territory for anyone making media due to the sheer amount of things that have happened during its existence.
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José Anselmo dos Santos aka "Cabo Anselmo", leader of the 1964 naval mutiny a few days before the coup, when he was only ~22, died last Thursday at the age of 80. He's a deeply reviled figure in the left, hated even more than the most famous torturers. He was arrested after the coup for leading the left-wing mutiny, escaped, joined the the left-wing guerrilas and, having become a turncoat at some point, snitched on his friends to the dictatorship, leading to the arrest, torture and death of several. Then authorities faked his death and he went into hiding to escape retaliation, only emerging years later. He's accused of having been a double agent from the very beginning, and thus the mutiny was always one big CIA/Navy plot, but there's no hard evidence and that makes less and less sense the more you study the event.

 >>/46908/
> Still, a movie or videogame about this entire thing would be ebin
Sadly, the local movie industry doesn't seem to have the interest or means to make a proper war epic.
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 >>/46986/
What I gathered from the Papillon by Charriére being a convict in the penal colony wasn't a lonely business, they lived in barracks and villages, but was a very uncomfortable one.
What an exciting telenovela. I can't promise I'll watch the whole thing. Most likely not one episode (out of the 7).
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 >>/46987/
> What I gathered from the Papillon by Charriére being a convict in the penal colony wasn't a lonely business, they lived in barracks and villages, but was a very uncomfortable one.
Not personal loneliness, just general isolation from any other settlement.

Now I'll post about the naval mutiny, but rather than a long writeup, I'll make use of the abundant photographic record and just provide descriptions.

On the 25th of March a couple thousand sailors, other enlisted men and representatives of the left went to the Metalworkers' Union building in Rio to celebrate the 2nd anniversary of the sailors' and marines' association. They were unarmed and off-duty. In the posters behind the speakers you can see mentions to labor confederations and causes such as land reform.
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Even João Cândido, leader of the 1910 sailors' revolt, shows up, although he disagreed with the younger sailors on their tactics and goals. Fiery speeches are made. Anselmo, president of the association, spoke from a text written by Carlos Marighella, a communist dissident who thought the Party wasn't revolutionary enough. In the middle of the event the sailors are informed of the Navy's arrest warrant for the association's directors for their actions earlier on the 20th, when they called for replacing the Minister of the Navy. Some arrests had already been carried out. The sailors refuse to leave the building and give the Navy an ultimatum to have their labor demands met and freedom for the prisoners.
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Admirals insist that the Minister should assert his authority. He orders the leftist admiral Aragão, commander of the Marine Corps, to suppress the mutiny. Aragão refuses and gets sacked. Admiral Sinay is assigned for the operation. He brings the marine military police company to the site and at morning on the 26th they occupy the street. On the first picture you can see a standoff with sailors on the other side of the fence. But when the offensive into the building was ordered, sailors sang the national anthem from the windows and one invading marine dropped his weapons and helmet and defected to the mutineers. 25 others did the same. Officers were dumbfounded and astonished, and the first offensive failed.
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There was tension and fear inside the building, but between periods of sleeplessness the sailors also had to rest somehow. They received aid from outside the building, including from their girlfriends (marriage was forbidden for sailors), though I'm unable to find the exact context for the second picture.
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Rebellion spread like wildfire through the fleet anchored in Rio de Janeiro. On a number of ships there was sabotage, shots fired and crewmen falling into the water, though no casualties are known from this. However, there were several prisoners taken and wounded near the Arsenal of the Navy and the Ministry's building when disembarking sailors of the Minas Gerais aircraft carrier tried to head to the Metalworkers' Union building and were fired at by officers and marines from the Ministry's building. Two sailors managed to swim away, get to shore elsewhere and walk to the mutineers' building. No pictures of any of this, so look at the ships.

Disgruntled officers were just as engaged in the struggle as the sailors, and placed severe pressure on the minister. In the afternoon the Riachuelo marine battalion was called to the scene and a platoon received tear gas for a second offensive. This was called off by the President as he wanted to negotiate. Admiral Sinay was photographed in tears leaving the scene, announcing he'd resign.
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Sílvio Mota, Minister of the Navy, announced his resignation, but the admiralty wanted the President to reject it. The most notable middleman in negotiations was the General Workers' Confederation (CGT), a large recent organization which existed outside of the corporatist framework. It was dominated by the ruling Labor Party and the communists.

Goulart accepted Mota's resignation and replaced him with leftist admiral Paulo Mário da Cunha Rodrigues. The sailors already wanted a new minister but Paulo Mário's name is often considered to have been chosen by the CGT negotiators. Goulart authorized him to give the mutineers an amnesty.

On the 27th of April the mutineers left on Army trucks to Army installations, free from retaliation, and then freed. They walked through the streets in celebration and carried admirals Aragão and Suzano in their arms. Army officers got to watch this from their Ministry's palace.
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For the next few days, officer-sailor tension continued, sailors were still sabotaging ships and some officers prevented mutineers from embarking. The sailors now expected to have their demands met in the near future, while the naval officer class was humiliated and defeated. Some admirals wanted to start a coup d'état, but the generals told them they didn't even have ships.

On both left and right, some made comparisons to Russia in 1905 or 1917, the mutiny on the Potemkin, the sailors' association as a proto-soviet, etc. this was a bit overstated but the Navy really was disintegrating.
 >>/47028/
> but rather than a long writeup, I'll make use of the abundant photographic record
That is fine too. This is an imageboard afterall.
> Metalworkers' Union building
I'm guessing that was symbolically significant too.

 >>/47031/
Sounds like they were incited to action. Question is, were their minds set even before that? Did they expect to get encouraged into action, or they were just clueless tools whom came in handy for their grievances?

 >>/47032/
> sailors sang the national anthem
Was a good idea to remind the opponent that they aren't enemy, but brothers in arms. Also showing they are unarmed, and therefor not suited to fight them, to appear vulnerable. 

 >>/47033/
Navy incapable, Army not willing. Quite the pickle.

 >>/47034/
How long this thing went on?

 >>/47035/
> aircraft carrier 
BRAZIL STRONK!
Where that vessel came from? Was purchase or native built?
> announcing he'd resign.
Second admiral down. Quite an achievement on behalf of the mutineers.

 >>/47036/
They also managed to shuffle the ministers.

 >>/47037/
It seems the Goulart administration's grip on the armed forces proved to be loose.
Could be that the event was a testing prod by the coupists? Or were they just observed the event thinking the time is right, the situation ripened enough for action?
 >>/47051/
> Sounds like they were incited to action. Question is, were their minds set even before that? Did they expect to get encouraged into action, or they were just clueless tools whom came in handy for their grievances?
I believe it came from the sailors, though they did receive overwhelming encouragement from the left once their standoff with Navy authorities began. Anselmo's speech was what the entire left believed in. The 1964 sailors' mutiny is closely related to the more or less spontaneous sergeants' uprising of 1963, which was much more violent than just sailors refusing to embark on their ships when the Navy called up a general state of readiness. The political climate was already very radicalized and the sailors were used to threatening indiscipline to press for their demands.
> How long this thing went on?
The celebration began at night on the 25th and the sailors left the building by afternoon on the 27th.
> Where that vessel came from? Was purchase or native built?
It was British-built, while that cruiser was American. An aircraft carrier would be too far for the naval industry.
> Second admiral down. Quite an achievement on behalf of the mutineers.
Aragão was reinstated by the new minister, which cemented the left's victory in the Navy.
> Could be that the event was a testing prod by the coupists? Or were they just observed the event thinking the time is right, the situation ripened enough for action?
It sank the government's popularity in the officer class to the bottom - the President was lenient with indiscipline in the lower ranks, a labor confederation chose the new minister, sailors were held in Army installations and then marched in celebration on the streets, and at night on the 30th of March Anselmo was together with Goulart and the high-ranking military leadership on a meeting at the Automobile Club. The coup plotters realized they could capitalize on the backlash, and were themselves shocked and convinced the situation was dire and they had to act.
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Last week was the Copacabana Fort Revolt's centennial. That's misleading, it was actually a large failed coup d'état, with the Copacabana Fort as one of the few successful uprisings.

The coup plotters were mostly officers, all of them feeling the military's honor had been tarnished and refusing to accept the presidential election's results. Elections were all blatantly unfair in that period. They conspired unprofessionally for months and the government reacted well in advance, transferring unreliable commanders away from the capital. All the plotters had left was a handful of commanders and a number of rash younger officers, with old marshal and former President Hermes da Fonseca as their figurehead.

They were set to overthrow the government on the 5th of July, 1922, by taking over the main garrison in the capital, the Vila Militar. Led by Hermes, a column would follow the main railway towards the Army HQ on the city center, engaging legalists on their way. With the legalists distracted, a detachment would snake around and reach the presidential palace (Catete) from the "rear". They'd have solid fire support from Guanabara Bay's coastal artillery.

As the conspiracy was sloppily organized, the government pre-empted the plotters on the 4th of July and by nighttime had deployed patrols and arrested most of the rebellious officers before they could even act. A legalist general entered Copacabana Fort without an escort and tried to assume control, but he was arrested by the commander, who was one of the rebels. After midnight, the 7th Company of the 1st Infantry Regiment rose up, tried to arrest the garrison's commanders and was quickly contained. ~500 cadets and instructors at the Realengo Military Academy, where all officers came from, headed to the Vila Militar expecting fellow rebels and were met with gunfire. They took to the hills north of the garrison and engaged in combat with the thousands-strong legalist force for most of the morning before giving up.
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Elsewhere, most of the Mato Grosso military district, including the commander, rose up in revolt. They stared at legalist forces across the Paraná river for a few days and gave up without a fight. 
In the capital, all that was left on the 5th of July was the Copacabana Fort, which had been reinforced by other rebels, reaching over 300 men, had stockpiled supplies and formed a defensive perimeter with patrols, electrified wire and IEDs. A much larger legalist detachment surrounded them to the north and west, but did not enter into direct contact. The fort shelled military targets across the city. There are mountains between it and the city center, but for months in advance the plotters had calculated their ballistics. They did manage to hit the Army HQ, but as they were irresponsibly firing into a population center, they also smashed several residences and killed civilians. They also exchanged fire with other fortresses.

The legalists cut off their lights and water connections, and by the 6th of July the besieged Fort was in a hopeless position. Early in the morning, the rebels agreed to allow anyone to leave. Only 28 of them, including the commander, chose to stay. Two battleships and a destroyer sailed towards the Fort. The São Paulo hammered it with its 305 mm guns, and naval aviation dropped bombs. After noon, the commander left to negotiate - throughout all of this, they had negotiated by telephone - and was arrested. He left the Fort to lieutenant Siqueira Campos. There were three other remaining lieutenants. Siqueira wanted to shell the city and blow up the Fort with everyone inside, but the others disagreed.

Instead, they hammered their names with nails into the walls, split the national flag among themselves and went on a death march towards the presidential palace. Strolling through Atlântica Avenue along the beach, they interacted with civilians along the way. Most of the group ran away along the course, leaving a mythical number of 18, but it was likely 11. Long before they could reach the tunnel leading north out of Copacabana, a company of the 3rd Infantry Regiment was on the way. One of the four rebel lieutenants, Mário Carpenter, was himself part of the Regiment, a friend of the legalist platoon commander and subordinate to the company commander. They all had an angry discussion on the street. The legalists expected them to lay down their arms. Carpenter allegedly said:
Captain, we didn't come to hand ourselves in, we want to die in combat against you. It is, thus, useless to advise us.

Combat broke out, and the rebels took up positions on the beach, where there was a height difference. Unsurprisingly, they were defeated by the hail of bullets, but also took out a number of legalists. The company commander had orders to finish them with bayonets, but wanted to spare them. This task was left to the president's own police guard, who conducted the last bayonet charge. The rebels were taken to a hospital and even visited by the president, but most did not survive. Of the four lieutenants, only Siqueira Campos and Eduardo Gomes survived their wounds.
 >>/48255/
> They conspired unprofessionally for months
Recipe for success.
They really were ready for governing? Or were there civilian politicians whom they would back to do that?

 >>/48256/
They had guts. But guts not always enough. What would had they faced if they surrendered? Firing squad?
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 >>/48288/
> They really were ready for governing? Or were there civilian politicians whom they would back to do that?
They backed Nilo Peçanha, losing candidate in the elections, and could just place him in power. Nilo himself was a former president and had fanned the flames of military unrest, but was not one of the plotters and merely hoped to pressure Congress to review the election's results. If he refused, they could grant power to Hermes da Fonseca, who was also a former president.
> They had guts
All 11 of them, hundreds of other rebels had chickened out by then. But their suicidal, jihadist/samurai/chivalric -like defiance became mythical. Both lieutenant survivors were major figures in the following rebellions. Siqueira Campos perished in a plane crash in 1930, while Eduardo Gomes had long and prestigious political and military careers.
> What would had they faced if they surrendered? Firing squad?
No executions, they were promised their lives would be spared if they surrendered. There were hundreds of prisoners, and many more in the nonstop rebellions in 1924-1927 spawned by this early attempt. They were prosecuted in civilian and military courts, expelled from the military and transferred around a number of prisons, often in dreary conditions. Besides regular locations, some were taken to the labor camp near French Guyana, and others, to remote Atlantic islands. There were daring escape attempts. Many went underground under fake names or into exile, dedicating themselves to plotting new uprisings.
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 >>/48510/
Uruguay is a successful separatist province, but as a brief conquest it doesn't really count. The Lusophone provinces have tried, sometimes more than once. The earliest anti-colonial conspiracies wanted independence for specific parts of the colony, and long before them, in 1641 Spaniards in São Paulo elected a king among themselves because they didn't want to be subjects of the newly independent Portuguese crown. Pernambuco tried secession twice (1817 and 1824) and got parts of other states on board. Then the empire began to fall apart in the Regency era (1831-1840). Rio Grande do Sul's war of independence was explicitly separatist, others not so much (e.g. rebels in Bahia declared the province a temporary republic until Pedro II reached adulthood) or not at all (liberal and conservative revolts in the imperial core). Even then, balkanization would ensue if one revolt after another couldn't be suppressed. There wasn't any more inherent unity than in the balkanized former Spanish colonies.
In 1892, one political faction in Mato Grosso wanted to declare an independent republic. This was on a state deep inland, only accessibly by sailing to Argentina and up the Paraguay river, without even telegraph communications. It seems they didn't even get to declare independence, though. Later on, in the 1932 civil war separatist intentions were exploited by government propaganda. Some of those fighting for São Paulo did have separatist intentions, but it was a nationwide movement. And as late as 1964, the rebels in Minas Gerais had to assure the public their movement wasn't separatist.
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I looked up the definition of "tellurocracy" and found this on Wikipedia:
> In Alexandr Dugin's theory of tellurocracy,[1] the following civilizational characteristics are traditionally attributed: a sedentary lifestyle (not excluding migratory colonization), conservatism, the permanence of legal norms, the presence of a powerful bureaucratic apparatus and central authority, strong infantry, but a weak fleet.[2] Traditionally, tellurocracy is attributed to the Eurasian states (Qing Empire, Mongol Empire), Mughal Empire, etc. although some, such as the early United States and the Brazilian Empire, have come into being elsewhere
That last part is completely unsourced, and clearly the writer's personal thoughts. Whoever wrote this must've been thinking "it has a big land area, therefore it's a tellurocracy", without regard for the stated features.
The Brazilian Empire only fits that definition by its sedentary lifestyle, conservatism and I guess legal permanence. Otherwise it was a thin veneer of a centralized constitutional monarchy over a feudal society. The central government named governors, but it did so balancing local political factions. The bureaucratic apparatus was weak, there was little demographic information available and enforcement of authority and services de facto relied on local powers. The naval officer class was aristocratic, while the regular army was tiny and counterbalanced by a militia.
Most of the population, and the entire coffee production, wasn't far from the coast, and sea traval was the main form of long-distance transport. There was trade on packs of mules into the continental interior, but it was slow. The railway network was limited and there are no internal waterways of note around the capital. The two major river basins are the Amazon (very convenient transport, everything else is the problem) and the Prata (which goes through other countries, and sections of the Paraná cut off navigation). Mato Grosso, which is accessed by the Prata basin, was weeks away from the capital. As late as World War II, reinforcements from Rio de Janeiro to the northeastern salient had to go by sea. It's easier to see this empire as a kind of archipelago.
 >>/48544/
Brazil was forged into a country then. Basically in a hundred years? Sorta. I guess the linguistic difference helped. "Better gang together, we are more similar."
But distances are large, and Para seems insulated too (but probably they have the least resources to do something).
 >>/48563/
The concept sounds a bit cooked. And forced. Feels kinda unnecessary. I see it is set into some kind of pair with thassalocracy, maybe for the need to name a group where non-thassalocratic states/countries can be included. So it sounds more liek exclusion from that group, which doesn't really belong (compare it to Bri'un) then get moved to the other.
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 >>/48585/
> The concept sounds a bit cooked. And forced. Feels kinda unnecessary. I see it is set into some kind of pair with thassalocracy, maybe for the need to name a group where non-thassalocratic states/countries can be included. So it sounds more liek exclusion from that group, which doesn't really belong (compare it to Bri'un) then get moved to the other.
Dugin was thinking geopolitically, tying imperial geography to trade/transport and then to how an empire has to organize its military, society and politics to control its territory. I have no idea if the article does justice to his theory, it's brief and doesn't get into the nuances. When an empire did form in South America, it was a lot different from the Eurasian land empires, either because of circumstances or geography.
Brazil becomes more land-based in the republican period, with the Navy becoming of secondary importance to the Army and a conscious, long-term and still incomplete effort to move the economic center of northward and inland. This is best symbolized by the capital's transfer to Brasília. A poweful bureaucratic apparatus and central authority did form. On the other hand, instead of "conservatism and the permanence of legal norms", there was greater political instability.
 >>/48586/
While one could make abstractions, find common themes, deduce underlaying rules, set up criteria, etc. the individual cases will be different enough if we take closer look. Geography is certainly a decisive factor for state and country formation, how the people live there. Other circumstances, like the historical background, and starting point also matters. The fate of Americas were all changed and basically all parts of it was put to a similar course when the colonizers set their foot onto the shores from their ships arriving from the motherland, and then they spread from the shores to inland.
I think historians, political scientists and the like view the region of the Eurasian steppes wrong. There are people with different ideas ofc, but they are fairly marginal. I'll take now an idea, a fragment of an idea, and will add a couple more fragments.
Eurasia should be viewed as a big pond, or a quite unusual river flowing in two directions, with ditches and banks on each (Eastern and Western) end, trying to deflect the flood, keep the water out. These banks are such empires as the Roman and the Chinese. Maybe even the southern borders with Iran and India are in similar position. In this giant region too empires formed but they are more changeable, more fluid, than what the brick people (Roman, Chinese, Iranian, Indian) build on the periphery. And they create waves as they emerge and put the water in motion, which then run towards the banks, sometimes over it causing floods and crises and changes. The point of emergence is always a different place, and when the flood reaches to the end will differ. The last wave was pushed by the Russian colonialism towards the East. The Mongol blokes appearing in this war with Ukraine now as soldiers are the waves reflected back from the Eastern banks (there were earlier waves too, it's like when one pebble causes many waves in a puddle, and stones are thrown generously into the Eurasian pond). The Central Asians appearing in European Russia is the sames.
Compared to this the countries emerging from the overseas colonies will have a very different fate, organization, and behviour.
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 >>/48696/
They are what they are, tractors represent agriculture. The parades happen everywhere and are both civilian and military in content, back in middle school I remember marching past the town hall with my class. But this is the first time tractors partake in the capital's parade. The subtext is Bolsonaro's alliance with agribusiness.

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