/kc/ - Krautchan

Watch： Netanyahu... webm
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Now did they do it after US encouragement? Did the US allowed them through Iraq? Or Turkey let 'em to fly in? In this case was US made Turkey to allow them? Or they just did and everyone stood by like some dicks?
'member how giddy Netanyahu was when he announced the American intervention? He has this sideways face structure but he almost smirks here. Check vidrel.
Now he had reasons to be happy, but which one was it? For the whole operation was a success, that the US could destroy the facilities? Or because he managed to pull the US into action, and finish what IDF could not do? Or because Trump managed to save their asses from prolonged Iranian rocket salvos?

We also have no idea about the effect. Trump ensured us about the total success. I have me doubts.
All right, let's move on.

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III. Regime change
These are what the US Foreign Policy in Perspective calls covert actions. When the US doesn't have a good justification for the world and her own citizens to act overtly. This part discusses how to seed local movements to topple the current Islamic revolutionist regime. One main problem: there is no real candidate, a charismatic leader to rally support around, and put forward as an opposing pole to Khameini and the supporting structure.
1. popular uprising
Since the Iranian Islamist regime is widely despised by the whole country, it seems possible to fan these negative emotions and spark a revolution. Iran has her revolutionary past too. The book notes that while many revolution happened in history, it is really not clear what leads to them, and even less clear how to reproduce the process "artificially". So it is more theoretical than anything.
This was in 2009 but how I see it, compared to US Foreign Policy in Perspective (published same year), in the meantime the US developed a new policy tool. Even back then they surely experimented with this. I try to list some:
Bulldozer Revolution (Serbia 2000), Rose Revolution (Georgia 2003), Orange Revolution (Ukraine 2004), Tulip Revolution (Kyrgyzstan 2005), Arab Spring (Middle EAst, 2011), Maidan (2013-14) - as far as I know all had some level of US/Western meddling. At the least via USAID and NGOs.
I think if not by 2009, but by today, they have a procedure to follow if they want to push a revolution in a country. Even here, opposition is/was hoping a colour revolution would happen which removed the Orbán government.
Anyway possible groups in the country: reformists, intellectuals, student, labor, civil society organizations. Maybe put forward Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah.

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2. insurgency
Supporting an insurgency of minority or opposition groups.
Iran is a multi-ethnic state, Persians little more than half of it. Kurds, Baluchs, Arabs, Azeris and others populate the country. Khameini has Azeri origins for example. It might be possible to turn against the regime one or many. Kurds are a convenient example - but these days I heard (on Caspian Report) that even Azeris could be played against the government.
Beyond them they could form external opposition groups from Iranian expats ("punctuated military operations"  >>/54316/), or prop up the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) or the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). Or anyone else who is willing.
One real question: could they initiate a regime change? While a revolution certainly does that if successful, but an insurgency might be better for distraction, or as an option to put pressure on in a "persuasion" policy.
3. coup
A timeless classic. Probably this has the shortest chapter. Would be most convenient for the US if the Iranian military couped the regime. But the US has no good way in to engineer it. As here I wrote  >>/54316/ based on the US Foreign Policy in Perspective, this is pretty much impossible.
Imagine what would an Iranian officer (a colonel or a general perhaps) would think if a stranger approached him and hinted that he should do a coup. Will he think:
> yeah this is a legit CIA agent I should start organizing
or:
> fuck me, the regime is testing my loyalty, best report this highly irregular event, and pray to Allah I won't be taken in the middle of the night
?
Exactly.

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So what options the US really has?
They always do the Containment in the background, but beyond that...
In my opinion real solution would be the Engagement, this most likely would work, and this would pull the poison teeth out - even if they acquired nukes.
But the US would not do that, unless circumstances change a lot. What she is willing to do is just Persuasion, and as recent events proved: they found a way to do an airstrike (probably result of decades long preparatory work) which was a combination of Israeli one with a fly-in fly-out US participation. So it was barely a US airstrike.
Anything else don't seem to be a real possibility. Invasion? Revolution? Insurgency? Coup?
In the past 45 years this is what the US did: containment and in the layer above trying to persuade Tehran occasionally. And now the airstrike - which is a huge exception, like a rare astronomical event, and only good for delaying the inevitable.
Will things change? Did recent events opened up some of the paths - like an insurgency of a minority? Did it closed surely other options - such as the rally round the flag effect blocked a chance for a revolution?
And put it in global perspective: how feasible would be to do some other moves: consider the threat at Taiwan would the US spend resources on an invasion?
And in more local perspective, would a larger turmoil in Iran shift the stability in the Middle East in the right or the wrong direction? And the book also points out: Iran acquiring nuclear weapons could also cause proliferation, if they have that, some neighbours at the gulf would also want 'em Pakistan already has.

Lot of interesting things in this book. I want to note another one: it seems the US finds everyone with nukes reasonable and trustable. The Russians, the Chinese, the British, the French, the Indian, the Pakistani, the North Korean and the Israeli are all fine but surely the Iranians the irrational ones who'd launch 'em. The authors do ask, would Iran really do? Or would Iran give nukes to her terrorist proxies? They have not gave even chemical weapons. Is there a real threat there?
Ofc it's more about that pesky proliferation. They don't mind those who have nukes, since can't do much about that, it's not a good idea to fuck with them either. But they could try prevent others to get it. If everyone had nukes, there won't be any county whom the US could bully.

 >>/54532/
Serious omission. I noted how they here  >>/54316/ call "punctuated military operations" but forgot to note that other parts is the policy tool called "aid to internal armed opposition forces".
So what the Brookings' authors wrote was essentially checking all the options of the other book.

I wanna add some stuff, again from the morals we learnt from US Foreign Policy in Perspective.
I can see their point on the US foreign policy being means driven. They have tools and they are put forward to use them even if:
- the chance of success is slim to none;
- they are sure they won't use them;
- they don't suit the job.
First as we saw at the example of Brazil the US doesn't start invasions against large countries with difficult terrain.
Afghanistan is 650K sqKm with an estimated population of 36-50 million people. Iraq is 440K sqKm, with 46 million, but the terrain is much more forgiving in the sense that it's not hilly. Compared to these Iran is 1,65 million sqKm large, 'bout three times of the average of the previous two. Population 95 million, about twice. Terrain is also difficult. It doesn't look like a country the US would invade.
Punctuated military operations are doomed to failure and not suitable for a regime change at all. Supporting internal armed oppositions isn't suited to bring regime change about. Still both are/were proposed for that reason.
The book doesn't contemplate airstrike as a possible regime change tool (although can be used in combination of a regime change tool to support the effect), but when the happening happened this year in the media analysts and propagandists speculated that the air campaign is done to cause regime change. Even tho Bibi said clearly they started them to destroy the nuclear program. Still the speculation was put forward over and over, that it might be in the background - I guess on "surely the Jew is lying" basis.

Still meditating on Which Path to Persia.
The authors say that Iran is a totalitarian hellhole, but it's hard to predict what they will do, and how they react, and they can change their position a lot, because one can never know whom they'll elect as a president and there are many interest groups and cliques and whatever.
So democracy is bad now, and Iran is not centralized?
But turn this around and let's take a look as Iran at the US. They see a fickle country with you can make a deal today, but the next POTUS could throw the deal into the trash tomorrow. Would Iran listen to the promises they make? And why would she listen?

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During the Cold War the United States followed the Containment policy to isolate, limit, bind, and strangle the Soviet Union. They even made a deal with China to do that. This policy played an important role in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In a multipolar world this does not work.
For now we have three powers leading this emerging world order: USA, China, Russia. If one tries to Contain another, then the other two just plays this out using each other. For the Containment to work two powers have to decide to isolate the third.
If the enmity between two powers gets to strong, that is a golden opportunity for the third to corner one of them by offering a helping hand to the other. Not one of them can afford to this to happen.
All three powers are rivals and potential allies for each other.
The new world order won't be a cold war, it will be a balancing act between the three until a fourth or a fifth emerges, then we'll see, they will continuously approach and push away each other, they will try outbid each other for the favor of each other. It will be a difficult courtship.

However this will be influenced by their power ranking. The the weaker powers see the most powerful more of a danger than each other. So whoever leads (now the US) will be on less favorable terms with the other two than they are.

Firstpost reports revitalization of Indian-Russian and Indian-Chinese relations.
Dunks on Trump.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=SjezdUHrhg8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SjezdUHrhg8

What the hell, Trudeau isn't the Canadian PM anymore! Why noone told me???

A Chinese, an Indian and a Russian walks into a summit.
The Chink is the tallest.

Putin press conference after the summit in China.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=iF01AN9rSi8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=iF01AN9rSi8

 >>/54624/
> this will create competitive advantages for our Chinese friends because [...] they will receive the product at balanced market prices, not inflated prices, as is the case in the eurozone
Europe is buggered against

This is interesting, a journalist says:
> the EU is turning from an economic union into a military-political bloc
Anyway, Putin says they never questioned that Ukraine can do economy and business however they want, including joining EU. This feels weird because the root problem was Ukraine dropping (couping) pro-Russia govt, and elevating a pro-EU one into power.

He talks about the legality of Zelensky. At the end he says Zelensky can come to Moscow, and then they can have a meeting.

That is interesting as well what he says about multipolarity. That these aren't new hegemons, but equals with same rights and position from the standpoint of international law. He seems to be talking about sovereign states. But what about not so sovereign states?

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Orbán had a speech at Kötcse, a village in South Western Hungary. It's a season opener jamboree of the Fidesz, "political season" they call it. They have this on yearly basis as well.
In parallel the opposition held something similar the same settlement.

What Orbán spoke of?
Next year we're gonna have legislative election so lots of stuff revolves around this and the opposition. My comments will be in italics.

He talks about that the opposition losing trust, so they try to create scandals and outrage. Orbán calls it the "little cock" politics - refers to cockfights, kinda. He makes fun of the opposition.
Says last year he stated the "Western Civilization" can only be found in Central-Eastern Europe. He says this civilization is based on the fusion of reason and faith. In the west they built their liberalism and they Islamise, and they have no turning back to this civilization.

He goes through the questions they had as open ended last year, and answers them based on what happened in the year since.
Will there be new US Prez and politics? - Yes.
New German govt? - Yes.
Can France deal with the governmental crisis? - No.
Will Poland see the rearrangement of power or at least rebalancing? - Yes.
Can V4 return? - Yes.
Will there be a Russian military victory? - Yes.
Will they partition Ukraine? - Yes.
Will the BRICS strengthen more? - Yes.
Can the EU solve the base dilemma embodied by the Euro? - No.
This is how he sees the time behind us from 2024 September till today.

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 >>/54631/
cont.

Says the rivals or the US will pass the US if they remain unchecked and the global trade system continues to evolve as it did earlier. He says they recognized this in the US Trump has his politics for this reason. These are the realities they have to face:
- China has advantages in demographics, tech, capital. Their military disadvantage is less. The US economy does not work without Chinese suppliers, and with time they become more and more the creditor of the Western world.
- Russia won the war. Without deploying troops, in the number of hundreds of thousands this victory cannot be reversed. And they don't want to send troops.
- It is possible to do business with Russia, but they cannot be separated from China in the coming decades.
- The US losing space in the Pacific region. China pushes them out. China without firing a shot, slowly but surely integrates the countries into her own economy.
- The EU is weak and will stay weak.
So based on these facts they decided:
- The US have to concentrate home and collect herself, and collect resources.
- Self-reliance in energy, raw materials, forcing investors to put their money into the US, tariffs and tariffs - lowering the deficit.
The US deconstructs the global economical order and regional economies emerge all around the globe.
They also stop exporting Democracy. They don't want to lecture anyone lol they still do all the time - I'm looking at you JD!. Everyone should do at home however they want, along their nature and culture, do whatever politics. But the US also returns to Great Power politics, there are no international rules everyone has to conform to.
So he talks a about Realpolitik vs Liberalism in international relations. What we can expect: might does not make right, but might make things happen. Woe to the weak and vanquished.

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 >>/54632/
cont.

Says EU economy won't recover.
Germany declared the end of the welfare state, but they have no idea how to solve the problem.
Consecutive French governments collapsing, even today - literally today https://www.politico.eu/article/france-francois-bayrou-no-confidence-vote-live-updates/
V4 returns, both Czechs and Poles seems willing to cooperate again.
Says the EU and Russia are in a financing race: they compete which one can finance the war. Russia gets weakened, but we are getting broken.

Ukraine is getting partitioned. Right now. Ukraine was a buffer zone between the West and Russia. Everyone had 50-50 influence. This was the situation until the war started. 
Now Westerners talk about security guarantees - in reality this means paritioning. Westerners already accepted that a Russian zone exists. This was the first step. The debate is how large this zone is - Crimea or 1-6 oblasts - but they don't argue that it does not exist. They debate how wide should be the second zone: the De-Militarized one. The third will be the Western zone - the one of the Westerners, which we still can't say anything sure about - beyond that they want to create it.

Europe's future.
In 2008 the world's production: 23% US, 25% EU. 2024-25: 27% US, 17% EU. He blames this on the incompetent EU leadership.
EU is heading to fregmentation. In the future we'll see the era of EU as the era of Europe's decline and becoming insignificant.
When the EU was created these were the goals:
- the EU should be a factor in global politics and global economy
- build the greatest free trade zone in the world, from Lisbon to Vladivostok, inlcuding UK, Balkans, Turkey, Russia, Caucasus he criticizes the EU a bit that they pushed Russia to China and says that the Chinese and Russian economies aren't competitive but complement each other - frankly the Russian could have complemented Europe...
Why this plan failed?
Simple:
The EU wasn't EU 30 years ago. It was the Common Market (ECM/EEC). Then they decided to create a market and political union out of this. The tool was the Euro(€). If we have common market we can have common money. If we have common money we can have common budget. If we have common budget then we will have a common state. The United States of Europe. This failed at the common budget step.
Next EU budget cycle is 2028-2035. He says if they'll be able to accept the budget (questionable) this will be the last budget. If things continue as is. If continue, the Eurozone will break apart.
There is a way out, not impossible.
But the EU has to be reorganized. He presents the "Concentric Europe" again, I already wrote it here:  >>/54488/

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 >>/54633/
cont.

He talks about how Hungary differs and why Hungary doesn't collapse unlike the EU. I don't think it's important for us much, he is basically fluffing the Fidesz govt. policies. The context is: the opposition wants to take it all away - as goes the Fidesz campaign message.

Europe doesn't try to reform the system (to concentric Europe), they try to keep the current up. They take on loans to keep financing this. The name of this process is "Common Indebtedness". They pull everyone into debt so this common debt keeps the debtors together - keeping the EU together. He says the United States of America was created this way - the Hamilton Moment, see these:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2020/05/26/europes-hamiltonian-moment--what-is-it-really/
https://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/blog/a-second-hamiltonian-moment/
And they think - Orbán continues - that the best tool for the mutual indebtedness is Ukraine. This is the reason they can sell the easiest to each member state. The war and the Ukrainian EU membership will create this debt, since no money for these.
Orbán opposes this. Not just for the debt, but this will enter us into the war in the most literal sense.

Because of this in the next years:
- The EU will remain marginal.
- Germany tries to dismantle their welfare state, but this will result in government crisis so no govt will be able to do anything
- The undermining of Democracy will continue, he brings the example of Le Pen in France and AfD in Germany. They'll prevent rivals to run or govern.
- Due to multiculti and islamisation in the west the concept of the unity of legal system ends, since they are getting sharia, next to the original legal systems. The public order will dissolve.

He lists what should have been done. I don't think this is interesting much for us. It's like: create the Lisbon-Vladivostok market union, don't let the muslims in, don't let Britain leave, etc.

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 >>/54634/
cont.

The War.
He tries to draw up the goals of participants. His interpretations as he puts it.
The key to understand the war: a process is going down, where the global market turns into competing regional markets, blocks, great power politics returns.
The leaders of the EU think: if they can strengthen the central bureaucracy of the EU, then the EU can be a leading power. He says this is false and mistake, but it will result in centralization. 
Russian goal: restrict Western influence growth
Chinese goal: change the US dominated world order into a multipolar one, privileged access to Russia's economy for China
Ukrainian goal: avoid economc collapse by getting more Western funds, without it the Ukrainian state would go bankrupt within a day
European goal: keep Ukrainian military capabilities on, keep the US in the conflict
US goal: this is going under a change from Biden to Trump, make trade agreements with Russia, subordinate EU to US economically.

The EU is a lame duck while this war is on. The EU is totally reliant on US military help, we are defenseless. And since EU can't defend itself, it can't enact independent economic policies (see tariff negotiations).
Europe should make a security agreement with Moscow. Not just for herself, but for Ukraine too.
Europe also can't open towards China and India, for the Ukraine war is the reference point. Can't make trade agreements with them while accusing them financing Russia and the war.
Continuation of the war is a losing European strategy.

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 >>/54635/
cont.

After this he talks about Hungarian events, politics.
Choices:
- join the Brusselsian politics as the opposition suggests, get Euro and such, give Ukraine money, let them into EU, abolish all Fidesz policies - the campaign message is that the opposition is run by Brussels;
- keep at the Fidesz model they built in ten years and continue;
Related to this he describes their campaign program essentially:
- state based on work;
- common market but national economic policies;
- staying out of the war;
- staying out of the common debt;
- no Euro - he doesn't say this within the list but when he summarizes it;
- no to EU membership for Ukraine, just strategic partnership;
- national energy policies;
- rejecting migration;
- no to open society;
- child protection;
- V4 reorganization;
- special relations with US, China, Russia.

He talks about targeted economic policies they enacted. I won't type in these.
Ah they're gonna make "national consultation" again.

That's about it. Shit. I wrote way more than I intended.

Ursula wonder Lyin' is giving an evaluation speech of the past year today... I'm sure it'll be great. Her approval rate dropped to like 25% or something. 75% of EU citizens (as per 5 countries opinion poll says) want her gone.
Meanwhile new French PM Lecornu has no idea how he'll form a government.

 >>/54644/
She started out great:
> erry tiem they told me EU is not capable of doing things
> covid, supporting Ukraine, energy security
> but erry tiem we made it
1. EU covid handling was ineffective, and frankly not even EU's competence but the states'
2. most support was given by the US still highly questionable if EU can do it alone
3. energy security is nowhere in sight, EU pays way more than anyone for energy as well
So yeah. A past failure, a current unsure but probably failure, and a future unknown (but probably failure). And according to her We Made It!

She says "Russia's war, Russia should pay". Her plan:
1. the basis of financing Ukraine will be the mobilized Russian assets
2. "with the cash balances associated to there Russian assets" EU can provide Ukraine with a reparations loan
3. the assets themselves won't be touched
4. the risk will have to be carried collectively
5. Ukraine will only pay back, once Russia pays for the reparations
What. The. Fuck.
So if I understand it correctly:
EU will pay Ukraine and Ukraine will pay it back when Russia pays. Nothing will happen the mobilized Russian assets.
My guess: Europe will never see this money.
Bonus content: the money has to be financed by every member state of the EU as per #4
I love it.

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> we are on the path of energy independence
> we know what drove prices up: dependency on Russian fossil fuels
1. Russian fossil fuels were the cheapest solution for Europe. Literally just flowing through the pipes.
2. We switched to US LNG and Chinese solar panels. Shackles to chains, or reverse.
How can one person lie so shamelessly and daring? Or she does really live in an alternative fantasy.
Seriously. One can debate if what Orbán says makes sens or not. And the Fidesz govt. lie all day about obscure data they present in various ways to make it look a good thing when it's bad. But this shamelessly telling blatant lies, which literally "the sky is green, the grass is blue"... this... goddam.

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We're getting parenting advice.
> I firmly believe that parents not algorithms should raise our children
> so we will tell social media what they can display to kids
Yeah, like just don't give smartphones to kids. Or if they really want to give them phones so they can be called any time, do it with simple mobiles.
And use that damn parenting filter the router has n shiet.
This is not parenting. This is giving the responsibility of parenting to people and organizations who shouldn't do the parenting, like social media.

And here it is  >>/54648/
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-frozen-russian-assets-war-in-ukraine/
They can't take Russia's frozen assets so they issue bonds (= take loans) and they pretend this money backs it by allowing Ukraine to pay it back when Russians pay war reparations for Ukraine.
I bet Orbán is right here:  >>/54634/ they are planning to indebt all the member states on purpose. They play on the "Ukraine will win" angle and that they can force Russia to pay somehow, while they know very well this is a mirage.

The Patriots party block initiated no confidence vote against our dear Ursula. The Left supports it. The current leading block is attacked from the both sides, not just for different but opposing reasons...
After her speech some MEPs could tell their opinion and the leftist lady was very belligerent, shrieked like a furie dont mistake this with furry, this is from Greek-Roman mythology.
What's gonna happen if they succeed? I've no idea. I don't think there is anyone they could agree on. Not sure if no leadership would be worse than what we have now.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-no-confidence-motions-scheduled-for-early-october/

Draghi says there is no money for the EU to fix the economy. According our Ursula taking on loan and giving it to Ukraine will fix everything.

In other news USA lifts the visa barrier for Hungarian citizens, because we are good boys who defend our borders and check who enters. Biden admin enacted it for whatever probably we were bad boys for some reason or another.
I wonder if the US can make an offer that the Orbán govt can spin as gains in return of cutting gas and oil bought from Russia.

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-mep-ilaria-salis-immunity-vote-brussels-hungary/
> Salis, 40, was arrested in February 2023 at a far-right rally in Budapest. She was charged with attempted assault on a far-right activist and was accused of being part of an extreme left-wing organization. She was also accused of brandishing a hammer in the attack, a claim she has always denied
Lol. She was part of an organized crew of antifas who traveled to Hungary in order to attack nazis (I think there was a memorial for the attempt of breaking the siege of Budapest in WWII, they do this every year, or did for a long time) then they ended up beating some rando older dude in military style clothing.
I'm not sure where the legal procedure was when she was saved by the immunity how she was even allowed to run as a MEP candidate it's beyond me, I did not follow it closely.

I see this as part of what I wrote here:  >>/54652/ related to Charlie Kirk. Individuals waging their own private wars because they think they can - and it's getting proven right now that they can.

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Was thinking about the erratic behaviour of Trump when it comes to Russia and the conflict in Ukraine. He goes round and round bashing and polishing all the participants alternately, Ukraine, EU and co., Russia...
Some call this "pendulum" as he swings back and forth between the two poles, from the nice words and everything great to the blaming and harsh words.
Only the "not my war biden war never have happened if i was in power i gave the javelins i helped the most" mantra is the same. But this is the least relevant part to anything, just noise, just fogging up the lense.
What he is doing is the Persuasion policy, the carrot and the stick. On everyone, but first and foremost on Russia.

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Look at this again:  >>/54523/
Russia is perceived an enemy and, such as Iran, is treated as an enemy.
First and foremost a containment policy is in place, all the sanctions are part of it. This is the background for every other policy.
The US has policy options to pursue, however the possibilities are more limited than in the case of Iran.
I. Diplomatic options
1. persuasion/carrot and sticks - he promises some he threatens some - promise great deals and threaten with stronger sanctions, frankly this is the most digestible to all onlookers
2. engagement - dropping all the sticks, lifting sanctions, stop containment, reintegrating - war would stop right away since this would end Ukraine's support too - some of his voters would cheer, some in EU too, but lot would be angry, a lot would feel he betrayed Ukraine, and his ego can't have this
II. Military options
There is none that could involve direct confrontation with Russia. He won't start a nuclear war.
III. Regime change
With sanctions generated economical collapse and a Ukraine war fiasco Washington tried to spark popular revolt in Russia, initiating essentially all three options: revolution, insurgency, and coup. Sanctions failed to do that and Russia is winning the war currently. Putin is quite safe for now.
IV. Containment
I started with this, it's on.

We can conclude the US has two options really, one is openly betraying Ukraine, or pretending they can do something.

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There is another approach which is both similar and different to the above. It's on the lines of U.S. Foreign Policy in Perspective: Clients, enemies and empire the book I started to talk about here  >>/54223/

Based on that we could divide the military options to over and covert. The US can act overtly if the enemy disgraced herself properly in the eye of the international community. If not then uses covert tools  >>/54316/
1. Coups d'état
2. Punctuated military operations
3. Aid to internal armed opposition forces - ie. Guerillas
Basically all means proxy forces in different roles. I do think a coupist group within the army can be considered as proxy force - it acts on behalf of the US.
Already a proxy war is going, but there is no such tool as using proxy and start a war against an enemy. And this is not what happened, since Russia was cornered in to the point Moscow had no option but to start a war themselves. Ukraine became a proxy for military operations after the war started.
What they do is #2 - punctuated military operations: they organize raids with the promise of building a resistance, a guerilla activity, a rebellion, etc. These aren't really successful.

In another context, drawn up in the same book, the US is doing client maintenance via intervention: Ukraine is a client which needs help to maintain the regime because she faces an outside attack. Relevant starts here:  >>/54271/
They get emergency military aid and advisors. So that's one box to tick.
But what to select from here:  >>/54272/ ???
Since the others involve US troop deployment really only one left: Mambo #5 Incompetent clients: basket cases. Not very flattering title. But this is about proxy forces and as situation evolves it might not have started like this maybe it did tho... right now it gets more fitting by the day.
And we arrived to this  >>/54274/ post, and as I pointed out in the next  >>/54275/ it's drawdown and negotiate.

So right now the US is doing the Persuasion approach which includes elements from other policies. Washington's aim from collapsing Putin's regime went to making peace in Ukraine ofc dealing with Russia can be part of a larger policy directed against China, but that's a different scope..
Containment's sanctions is part of the stick, the same as maintaining support to Ukraine, that is running a proxy force.
On the other hand it has elements of the Engagement policy, that is making various deals, and probably offering the lift of sanctions. This is the carrot.
He looks erratic because he has to court and reprimand Putin at the same time, which can only be done alternately. And due to the large publicity it happens in front of everyone - unlike the execution of the policies of previous Presidents (such as the case of Obama's Persuasion policy of Iran).

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How Russia Plans to Rule Eurasia by River - by CaspianReport
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=VtE5sTpkn7k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=VtE5sTpkn7k
Basically the Siberian South-to-North flowing rivers can be used to haul resources and goods from north to south.

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France recognized Palestine today!
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250922-france-officially-recognises-palestinian-state
> The French recogition came a day after Australia, Britain, Canada and Portugal also took the largely symbolic step of recognising Palestinian statehood.

Meanwhile Israel reintroduces settlement scheme to scuttle the Palestinian state.
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250814-israeli-minister-smotrich-announces-settlement-plan-bury-idea-palestinian-state

More meanwhile:
pic #2
Last time I checked Hungary was solid green. I think the withdrawal of recognition should be done in the UN assembly. It sounds like the whole thing is just for creating controversy.
I would not be surprised tho if the Fidesz/Orbán govt would step back.

 >>/54685/
I think what Israel doing is a Cain and Abel moment.
They have the same roots, leading back to thousands of years, Levantines are all brothers essentially. Now they are killing off Able just to be condemned for eternity.
But Cain will always kill Abel because Cains don't know better. It's the same with Romulus and Remus.

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Listening Trump droning in the UN.
> US is greatest
> best investment
> I did everything that made America great

Taking credit for stuff he didn't actually did, and telling the UN didn't help. He saved millions of lives and the UN weren't there...
He questions the UN. Now that Israel is criticized by everyone and all permanent members but the US acknowledged Palestine as a state... suddenly the US has no purpose and a failed institution.

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Look at that faggot grinning.

The whole point everyone who hypes this Trump speech up will miss is:
The UN is as strong as the strength the UN members give to it. If the largest of the participants don't act along, don't support of keeping the rules they had founded the UN for, themselves don't keep these rules, then yes, the UN turns into an empty shell.
The failure of the UN is a failure of the United States.

Trump designates antifa as terrorist organization.
Suddenly Fidesz govt. is setting up a terrorist organization list with the first priority to put antifa on it.
Such is the life on the client state.

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In other news:
The election campaign chugs forward with full force. All the main issues are EU related, no real domestic policy questions.
So now they came up with this:
The opposition (meaning Magyar Péter and Tisza Party) in a private intra-organization meeting talked that they will introduce progressive taxation for income tax (we have a flat 15%, very low in the EU, for all income brackets) but "they won't tell it in their campaign for they'll lose the election surely". A video was made about this and was leaked. Orbán said he saw the video himself.
With this finally they generated a domestic policy issue: how to tax income.

Along the US "who is violent, the left committing political violence" circus we also started ours. Apparently opposition politicians shoving Fidesz media journalist and propagating the culture of violence in politics.
It also turned out that one of the main faces of the opposition: lieutenant general Ruszin-Szendi Romulusz, the previous chief of the Hungarian Defense Forces, a career soldier... well it turned out he likes weapons, that he has a sidearm, and that he wears it in public, even on political events. And this is apparently a huge problem.
This year - since he started to support the Tisza Party as a political expert on military matters (and a possible defense minister I guess) - other vices of his were aired:
- he built an expensive house;
- he got liposuction;
- he is too friendly with the Ukrainians.
Lot to feed to the peasants to be angry about.

 >>/54694/
And like that, antifa is a terrorist organization on the Hungary starting today. Just like at our Big Brother in the US. So happy...

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I have to defend the expression "The Rest" and its expressive correctness/preciseness when we talk about our divided globe, about The West and The Rest polarization.
Indeed it sounds quite rude to that 7.5 billion people that placed in The Rest, but the intention of its use isn't humiliation, but to express that Western arrogance and ego-centrism in the way how they treat The Rest, which is indeed humiliating towards that 7.5 billion people. The Westerners treat them like nothing, they don't take into consideration their viewpoints, interests, opinions, wishes, faith, culture, way of life. Westerners think they know better and that they can tell how they should live what they should think, how they should behave. Not just the liberals, but just listen to Trump's speech in the UN just the other day, or how he used the term "shithole", which fits well when it is used on an imageboard, but from someone in the White House...
So yes. They are The Rest.

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 >>/54708/
Just compare Trump's speech with Lavrov's:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=FBfWUqj-y6Y
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FBfWUqj-y6Y
Starting about 1:30 he talks about the UN and the challanges. Very different tone, even when he arrives to what happens in practice at about 2:01.
> picrel
Russia has good relations with Israel, but they know how to play for the ear of the majority of the world's population.

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No digital id petition.
Numbers are continuously growing. By the time I post this it'll be 200 more.
UK govt. doesn't give a shit. They'll introduce it.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194

Starmer's popularity is down the shitter. Something like 25% approval rating. They should overturn this government.

 >>/54716/
Also:
> help tackle illegal immigration
Stop letting them in. Get the fugging human traffickers, shut down those institutions which finance the whole thing. Those poor sods have no money to travel, while this whole thing is a huge public transportation network that can only run with money.
No. Ofc the solution is digital police and surveillance state.
I would say such is the UK, but this is the future for the EU too. How these people want this? How can all those low level functionaries implement the whole thing who know they also get fucked by the system? I do not know.

Could be tech, but fits here just fine.
Afghanistan was cut off from the internet. Quite literally. The Taliban cut internet cables to disconnect Afghanistan in order
> to tackle “vice” and immorality
As the UN article puts it.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/09/1166002
Listened Some Ordinary Gamers talking about it too.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=t1EzBICxyI4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=t1EzBICxyI4

Back when the Talibans took over I read Afghanistan exported two things: smartphones and electricity to power these smartphones. I assume smartphones need internet too.

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Czech parliamentary election just went down.
Turnout 68,95%
34.5% ANO - literally Orbán I
23.4% ODS/SPOLU - previous winner, wikip says center-right, conservative
11.2% STAN - liberal but in the EPP
9% Pirates - liberal, "civil rights in the digital age" - I think I'd agree on a lot with these guys, I assume they are against Chatcontrol and such.
7.8% SPD - literally Hitler
6.8% AUTO - literally Orbán II

Big win for the opposition and the "sovereignist" group of parties, win for our Orbán. Now they can hope there will be another country next to the two Hungarys that's gonna start veto and shit.

Next one is Netherlands on the 29th.

Shitting meself. Latest French prime minister resigned, just after he revealed the list of his ministers. He was the 7th.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/06/french-pm-lecornu-resigns-hours-after-naming-government_6746132_7.html

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Trump is on suicide watch.
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2025/press-release/

He made a number of claims in his UN speech where he made peace. He might stretched the truth here and there.

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 >>/54742/
Tried to found some audio/video proofs of this, but yt if full of trash, and can't sort the noise from the real thing. I found vidrel but that's not it.
> Venezuelan opposition leader and the newly awarded Nobel Peace Prize winner has dedicated her win to Donald Trump for his “decisive support” in her country’s fight for democracy. 
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-nobel-peace-prize-maria-machado-b2843631.html