/kc/ - Krautchan

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Fun facts about the election of Frau von der Leyen:
1. she was the only candidate to chose from, so if she had been rejected then, I dunno.
2. She's also implicated in covid vaccince scandal, where she signed sketchy deals with manufacturers. Basically a corruption case.
3. And she was also investigated in 2019 for a domestic corruption case where she handed out contracts to her cronies as a German defense minister.
The EU is in good hands.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/07/17/von-der-leyen-commission-loses-vaccines-contracts-transparency-case-on-eve-of-crucial-vote
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/corruption-scandal-hangs-over-eu-president-ursula-von-der-leyen-33871

Okay I haven't read the details of these articles, this is a quick post and I'm tired.

 >>/52223/
Have to add, that this system where they have only one candidate for the presidency is called Spitzenkandidat in beautiful German. The party or party coalition which gained the majority nominates a candidate and the EU parliament votes on this person.
What I dunno if they don't accept (slim chance since that person is the majority candidate, but still there is a chance).

 >>/52223/
It looks like she keeps her old job and it's business as usual then.

She was also the minister of Defence during the G36 affair which led to the rifle being replaced by the HK416(though that happened after she left).

 >>/52226/
> that happened after she left
She picked the people she wanted to get the dough, she had her own share, she could left the job of actually doing the thing to others.

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They announced Biden caught covid.
They confined him.
Then suddenly he announced in a tweet he withdraws from the presidential race - despite he was adamant to do it.
Now CumAllah Harris is the nominee, leftlib media behaves like nothing happened.
Did they coup the old man?
Will we see Biden ever again?

Some questioned the authenticity of his signature of the "resign" paper. Here's a cool investigation by Wyatt of DPA:
https://yt.drgnz.club/watch?v=N5-RtKQir1Y
https://youtube.com/watch?v=N5-RtKQir1Y
Interesting comment:
> Wyatt : I examined this in detail last night Apparently, all of the signatures on his executive orders (with PDFs visible on the Federal Register website) going back to 2021 are exactly identical probably being copied and pasted If the signature on the Executive Orders is something copied from three or four years ago, it is plausible that his most recent signature (on the resignation document) is both different and genuine, because of the passage of time (and of course his mental deterioriation)
Does this mean he never actually signed any executive orders?

 >>/52232/
Well it was to be expected. After all, if Biden were elected for a second term he would just get worse as he continues to age.

I don't know that she is much of a better candidate really. I heard that people actually wanted somebody else entirely but due to how campaign funding works that would be difficult because all donations are to the Biden-Harris Campaign so there would be complications transferring it to a new candidate. Plus replacing her would be a bad look when she is Vice President, particularly as she is half black, half Indian and a woman, so dropping her would offend those demographics.

So it looks like Trump will be president.

 >>/52233/
Trump has already been a president before, so I mean it looks like Trump will be president again.

 >>/52233/
Oh now that he stepped down turns out he has no covid and can return to the White House.
They detained and threatened him. Infa 100%.

One thing I heard. Here's this:
https://democrats.org/who-we-are/
https://democrats.org/2024-delegate-selection-process/
> The Democratic National Committee is committed to electing Democrats everywhere – from the school board to the Oval Office.
They have a set of rules how these officials can be nominated.
There are four documents on the second link that:
> govern the Party’s Delegate Selection process and National Convention.
Including the President of the US.
What I heard, that for a new nominate they should have kept at least some part of the procedure, "at least a hearing", but they just switched Biden - whom the delegates legally pledged to - with Harris and the delegates declared they all supporting her.
Really shows that it is not a democratic process, there is a clique that can just say:
> today you support X
< YES WE DO!
> tomorrow you support Y
< YES WE DO!

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Listening what Orbán is talking about at Tusványfürdő, like last year  >>/50735/, this is the 33rd occasion for him.
Hilarious, he started with:
> now i'm gonna redpill you
Literally citing Matrix, explaining the blue pill, red pill metaphor. He says for us the Russo-Ukrainian war is the red pill.
I won't write stuff like last year, I don't think I have time to listen the whole thing anyway. Perhaps tomorrow or next week.
I want to note one thing he said, it's fairly at the start. He say Europe's engine was the Paris-Berlin axis, now this got irrelevant, and there is a new one: London-Warsaw-Kiev-Balitcs-Scandinavia. If we remember what Szálasi said about how the Anglos fight against Europe: they build clients on the shores and periphery of Europe and they use those to defeat the stronger states on the continent. If I put together the two thought, I can make sense of it.

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Latest scandal: Hungary is causing a spying crisis with the so called National Cards

Recently our govt. added the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus to the list of countries whomster citizens can apply for "National Card"s. This, according to a Hungarian "security expert" and some of the members of the European Parliament and the European Commission (which is the council of the head of states), is a huge security issue, which endangers the Schengen area countries, by letting in Russian spies running free. Or at least that it offers a legal loophole for people whomster on the list of sanctioned individuals due to the Russian war on the Ukraine.

I can't recall hearing this National Card before that - I probably had just did not pay much mind to it - and from the news it's not easy to solve that is that actually. So I tried to dive in.
The law that regulates this thing is the 2023/XC government statute, and is about the "entry and residence of the citizens of third countries".
> third countries
This is all the countries which aren't: Hungary and European Economic Area countries. The statute is also relevant to stateless, fugitive persons.
Now this is all the regulations about the topic, and the National Cards is only a part of it, called: "residence of specified third countries". Originally this part was only relevant for Serbian and Ukrainian nationals, but recently it was extended to a number of countries: Bosnia Horsevagina, North Monkeydonia, Moldova, Monteneger, along with Belarus and Russia - the latter two sparking the controversy.
Only those can get National Cards who come to do prearranged work, has contracts, or do some other business that constitute as work. The length of stay is at least 90 days but not more than 2 years. It can be extended by 3 years (any amount of times).
Needed:
- valid passport;
- documents that prove employment and place of stay;
- money that cover the cost of moving to another country or returning to home country;
- proof of health insurance;
- document that verifies the purpose of the entry;
Also have to pay some amount of fee.
So basically not everyone can get it, and there is some screening.
How is it differ from regular entry and residence? Not by much.
1. the aforementioned extension, for "regular third country citizens" who can also only apply for work can extend their time by 1 year;
2. "regulars" can't apply for entry and residence for different reasons (such as studies) while at Hungary (I assume they have to return and apply at the embassy or something), the National Card can only requested in the country;
3. the National Card allows them to bring their family.
That's it.
So if Russia or Belarus want to send spies they can do however they want. National Cards won't make them James Bond.

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Some of our politicians in the EU Parliament gave a press conference, talking about the issue.
They told, among other things, that at the moment 720K Russians, and 85K Belorussians live in the EU legally.
They stated that in the first month (august) of the National Card extension to the two countries, 14 people applied for it.
Despite they were asked they did not specify what work that 14 people are doing.

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Couple of things to post.
First let's talk about the Draghi-report.
Mario Draghi was PM of Italy briefly (for over a year, Meloni replaced him) and was the prez of the European Central Bank. Our dear Ursula asked him to write something that supports the current school of thought that collapses Europe plans to increase Europe's competitiveness.
His report is 400 pages, not that long, but frankly, there are many better things to read, including Adam Smith's wealth of nations. However news sources are inadequate, I found.

Shittiest one:
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-mario-draghi-report-unleashed-eurozone-debt-crisis-ecb-competition-investment/
> here are 5 points, all about investing more

This one crowns the previous turdcake:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/business/europe-economy-competitiveness.html
Actual quote:
> Mr. Draghi’s report was short on details about the source of the enormous investment required to reverse Europe’s economic decline.
> “Where is the money going to come from?” Ms. van Rij said.
Good question.
Good snippet:
> Cheap Russian gas is no longer available, and energy prices have soared. Those prices have come off their peak, but European companies still pay two to three times more for electricity than U.S. companies do
> the report found
Literally what Orbán is saying for years now, Jesus fucking Christ. Situation sucks in Europe because no source of cheap energy.
But this article actually lists some suggestions from the Report:
- shared energy grid
- joint military procurement
- advanced training programs for workers
All right. It also notes that:
> the bloc depends on a handful of suppliers like China for critical raw materials
so have to make:
> preferential trade agreements and investment in countries that could serve as alternate suppliers.
And he finds problems in "bureaucracy" but wants more centralization which means more bureaucracy...:
> European countries to be more coordinated
> barriers such as costly regulation can be burdensome
> Far-right parties that have been hostile to some of the European Union’s initiatives and wary of extending more power to Brussels
> Many of Mr. Draghi’s proposals would require unanimous consent from member states

This Hungarian article (of the opposition media) says the Fidesz reads the report, but they don't like it. Complements the NY Times article, makes the points above clearer.
https://hvg.hu/eurologus/20240909_versenykepesseg_draghi
Basically this article outright says have to close down the market in front of Chinese products see Chinese investments on the Hungary, battery factories. Say good bye to cheap Russian energy see Hungarian gas and oil imports. EU should give up unanimous voting to force through the decisions which some countries don't want to vote in see the muh Hungarian veto cries in past years.
Basically these are from the reports the rest of the article is various chime ins from unrelated people.

So all this bs boils down to this:
Europe has no energy and raw mats, so production is expensive, European products and companies are not competitive. With "AI industry" emerging energy demands grow exponentially. Go Green policies make everything more expensive. Can't allow China to profit because China is bad competitor of US. Can't allow Russia to profit because Russia is bad competitor of US. Expose tariff in Chinese products and sanction Russia. Africa could be a nice source except Europe (France) is getting kicked out by US, China, and Russia. This leaves US as supplier, and an insecure Middle East for energy. South America can serve raw resources, but that's basically buying from US (related topic: Monroe doctrine).
So basically Europe will turn into a market for the US, a colony, where they pump the wealth from.
What would actually help: cooperate with Russia. Russia means cheap energy and returning to Africa cheap resources, and investing there would open up markets.
What will most definitely not help: anything Draghi proposes whatever he actually wrote.

 >>/52396/
Private investors won't invest in Europe if Europe is in decline.
Europe won't be be able to invest massive amounts through public means either, given that most of those nations are in too much debt as it is, though Germany is more financially responsible than most of the others and so they have some room to move in that regard.

Energy in Europe is a huge issue and nobody in Europe seems to have a realistic long term plan to address it.

The west as a whole is worried about China's dominance in rare earths and solar panels. Australia benefits from that to a degree as we have rare earths we just aren't a major miner or processor of many of them, but that's going to change.

European industry is being strangled by China so tariffs are probably necessary anyway Electric cars are a good example of this. But the issue there is that the US is also a huge industrial power and also competes with Europe(and might introduce tariffs on Europe as well).
But tariffs are a quadruple edged sword, yes they make Chinese goods less competitive but it will raise the price of imported inputs for European manufacturing(such as Chinese rare earths), it cuts off a huge Market to Europe(China) and it will cause inflation in some goods in the EU as the price of goods that are tariffed goes up.

Africa has a lot of potential of course but it's also Africa. Rare earths won't do Europe much good if they are in a jungle with no infrastructure in an area held by separatist warlords or a corrupt government(well it's Africa, all governments there are corrupt). It would still need money to set up such operations as well.

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Second topic of the day.
Hungary makes strategic partnership deal with Chad.

Back in 2023 November the Hungarian Parliament decided to send 200 troops (with 400 in rotation) to Chad, to do various tasks, advisory, support, battlefield monitoring, protecting Hungarian citizens and local Hungarian interest, supporting fight against terrorism. Main goal is to "reduce the pressure of illegal migration on Europe".
Since the US and Western Europe destabilized all the Muslim countries of the Mediterranean with the Arab Spring, most of those still can't plug the holes. Basically making the Sahel stable reduces the migration. For the same reason went our dear Ursula went to Egypt to talk to their dictator el-Sisi this year.
Here's article about it:
https://defence.hu/news/parliament-approves-sending-of-hungarian-military-mission-to-chad.html
And another one from 2024 April, using a French paper as a source:
https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/hungary-deepens-bilateral-ties-with-chad/
This also mentions that:
> Hungary has signed military, educational, health, agricultural, and energy memoranda of understanding with Chad.
And that in Chad Hungary substitutes Russia which is busy elsewhere, and this cooperation is very anti-EU.

News from yesterday: Chadian Prez Mahmat Déby visiting the country (I think it was mentioned last week this event will happen). Sunday evening Orbán hosted a dinner for him and had a nice chat. Our foreign minister Szíjjártó told stuff about the parternship:
https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/fm-hungary-is-building-a-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-with-chad
So the parties signed:
- strategic cooperation, 
- defence, 
- animal husbandry
... agreements. And has some type of education component. Such as:
> university scholarships to 25 Chadian students each year
> 150-200 million euro tied aid programme to support agriculture, the food industry, and the development of water supply, education and digitalisation
> humanitarian scheme is launching a one million US dollar aid programme to prevent the spread of infections and improve health care 
> transfer of a 14 million euro contribution from the European Peace Facility to support the development of Chad's defence capacities
I dunno how much of those sums in this context.
We also establish embassy in Chad, so basically open real relationships.

There are some other info here. Franc don't want to lose Chad, while Russia also tries to court them.
https://www.theafricareport.com/360934/chad-becomes-focus-of-diplomatic-and-military-attention/

I just watched the US debate. All I can say is, bleh...

It was not really a debate, they would often ignore the questions that they were asked and instead they had their own talking points that they would try to shoehorn into their answers even when it was not relevant to the topic. These talking points are the same we have heard before, Trump talks about Immigration, Harris brings up project 2025. Neither of them had anything interesting to say and neither had any real policies.

The only thing of interest in this entire debate was that apparently Harris owns guns or at least a gun(she brought that up in response to Trump saying she wanted to ban them).

But still, I don't think either candidate did well but I don't think they did terribly either, there were no Biden moments this time. So I don't think this debate well affect the election much.

 >>/52399/
Heh:  >>/qrbunker/145100/
It's not like they didn't read everything from a teleprompter in the debate with Biden...
I bet the debate was just a marketing event for these earpieces.
Finally one instance played one video:
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=VgsC_aBquUE
Randomly clicked into the middle
> Viktor Orbán said
Kek.
I'm sure some of his voterbase likes to hear about Orbán and what he says about Trump, but I'm not sure if can win voters from the middle, those who aren't committed to either side. For voters on the other end, Orbán is literal Hitler.

 >>/52400/
I think most Americans probably don't actually know what a Victor Orban is.

 >>/52402/
I dunno, he was shilled by Tucker Carlson quite a few times.
But I bet much more Americans have 0 idea than who has.

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Let's take a short look at the Orbán-government's tax policies.
In 2022 a government decree introduced a new type of tax which they call extra profit tax. They were saying that the due to the these years of crises actually resulted in profit for certain sectors of the economy, a profit that they not calculated with, so they'll take some of that.
Couple of days ago came to my attention that they are talking about this again, that the banks and insurance companies pocketed extra dough this year, so they'll have to pay the extra profit tax.
I don't know about the banks, but last year, 2023 February, our govt. issued another decree regulating insurances, giving an extra window for people to switch companies and make other insurance contracts, starting with 2024, in March-April.
So starting this year in the Fidesz-media for sure (perhaps on the other side too), there was a campaign of ads, infomertials, interviews with professionals about this opportunity - driving up attention, and demand for insurance and signing new contracts. With demand the price also got higher, and lo, insurance companies pocketed "extra profit".
And now our government, donning a Robin Hood cap, swoops in and takes the moneybags from the rich - seriously their communication very much paints this picture. Hilarious.

 >>/52436/
I don't think profits should ever be punished unless there is some kind of unfair reason for them that is damaging the country. Like if a bank had a monopoly and that was why it's making more money then yes, maybe something should be done but even then it should not be taxed more, it should be broken up instead.

The problem with taxing profits is that you scare business and disincentivise investment.

 >>/52438/
Their reasoning is something liek: the profit wasn't made by smart planning, but the crises, covid, war, whatnot, and it isn't in the calculation of those companies.
The opposition and "independent" opposition experts put forward criticism, but that's expected.
My problem in this particular case is that the unexpected "extra" profit is the result of the acts of the Fidesz government and Fidesz media. So they do tax the people essentially by making them spend on the service. It's like if they were made those companies collect the tax and then take a share from it.

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It's time for a "The Jews" post.
Maybe this would be better in the news thread, but it really is politics.
For various reasons for about a year know I have the luck to listen to the radio. Radio radio, not net radio, so the selection is quite slim. When push comes to shove I'm find listening politics and news. But that's all Fidesz media, no opposition or independent news channels.
About a year ago happened the Hamas attack on Israel and these programs broadcasted sometimes have mentioned the "growing antisemitism over the globe especially in Western Europe and how concerned the Hungarian government about this" this goes hand in hand with the questioning of Brussel's and Western European countries' migration politics during the past year. Lately, about since the beeper attack, these voices are getting stronger. People are invited into the studio talking about the situation in Israel, the views of Israel, the woes of of the Jewish people. For example a Jewish journalist or diplomat (did not payed attention at the introduction, sorry) was telling to the listeners in perfect Hungarian how clever and resourceful was the Israeli secret services with the beeper attack, and that we shouldn't be worried about the possible Hungarian involvement and its consequences. Or we were told that 200 attacks against Jews happened in Germany that lead to physical confrontation.
Most recently they were criticizing western censorship practices, how they are enforcing hate speech filtering in the West. They found it very concerning that while they censor hate speech against LGBTQ movement, they don't censor anti-Semitic statements. They were outraged how Westerners don't include Jews among the chosen ones who shouldn't be criticized or talked bad things about.
Of course they did not use the word censorship.

One good think tho.
They mentioned, that basically the Western suggestion to avoid hate and atrocities is: "don't be a Jew, or at least hide your identity". They said this is absurd and unacceptable.
I agree with this. When will the time come when they say:
> just don't be German
> just don't be French
> just don't be Polish
> just don't be Hungarian
> ...
This is really unacceptable.

 >>/52463/
> about year know
*about year now

 >>/52463/
> I'm find
*I'm fine
For fucks sake. I won't correct the rest. You know what I mean.

 >>/52463/
I don't know how I feel about this kind of thing. This has been an issue here as well. 
I think anti-Semitism is growing, the Green Party in Australia have said some pretty anti-Semitic things and they are far from far right. Both the far left and the far right seme to hate the Jews.

Maybe this make the Jews realise that Muslims and the left are not their friends and so maybe they will act differently and stop encouraging Muslim migration and the left.

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I was planning to write a short note on this for a while now. Well, I guess it was about time.
A "reallocation of voters" happened in Hungarian politics, and it feels I've seen this already a couple of times.
This year a new political party emerged with astonishing tempo and collected most of the opposition voters in half a year, from January 1st till the EU parliamentary and Hungarian municipality elections. This is the TISZA Párt, with its frontman, Magyar Péter.
TISZA is an acronym, Tisztelet és Szabadság, means Respect and Freedom. Also Tisza is the Tisa river, so it's an okay wordplay, easy to remember. I bet most people don't know the actual name of the party.
Before the start of this year, noone heard about the party and Magyar Péter, they had nothing to do with each other either. TISZA Párt was a dwarf party in the countryside, founding members toyed with the idea to run in the 2022 parliamentary elections but they did not. Magyar Péter is a lawyer, and was the husband of a the Minister of Justice who got into a legal scandal, putting her into many not too flattering articles.
Interesting is, that both the party and Magyar has conservative background, and their program and ideas has conservative elements, but perhaps most correctly takes motifs from everywhere from the political palette - since it is there to collect those voters who got enough of the incompetent opposition, and want to leave behind the ex-PM Gyurcsány, who hangs onto politics like if his life depended on it.
Previously the various opposition parties tried to create some alliance but they failed to bring results in constantly (except perhaps the office of the lord mayor of Budapest), and everyone was alienated by Gyurcsány (and the Fidesz propaganda citing Gyurcsány all the time).
Now this new formation took the wind out of the sails of this alliance, deflating them all.

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By the elections in June the TISZA Párt become the second largest party, with about 30%. Picrels are the freshest data.

Pic #1 made by a company close to the govt/Fidesz. It shows the EP election results in the first column at each party, and the current polling in the second.
- Fidesz is as popular as four months ago
- Tisza Párt's popularity has grown - remember this is a semi-conservative, pander to everyone, get the opposition together party
Between the two there's 10% difference.
- DK-MSZP-P is the remnants of the socialist party just above the 5% eligibility line (for parliamentary seats)
- Mi Hazánk, right radical party, separated from the Jobbik, from those who did not want to team up with the left-liberal opposition, again right at the threshold
- Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (KKP) - the joke party, under the treshold, perhaps they could get in perhaps not.
- Momentum - liberals, down the drain
- the rest down the drain.
According to them strictly taken those numbers 4 parties could get into the parliament.

Pic #2
From a pollster close to oppostion. They also show the preference in two columns (rows actually), but the light blue is the whole population (all voters), the dark shows the sure voters.
- Fidesz - 28% all voters, 39% sure voters
- Tisza - 26% all, 37% sure
Very small difference. They measure the governing party lower and the main opposition higher.
- DK - 5% all, 7% sure
- Mi Hazánk - 5% all, 7% sure
- KKP - 3% all, 4% sure
- the rest doesn't worth to mention.
Note: 28% of all voters seems to have no preference, well they "don't know" or "refused to answer" at least. From both groups they could go for certain parties.
So basically they measure the smaller parties similarly, but there are less numbers to be distributed anyway. Here the smaller opposition parties get buffed a bit.
Our electoral system favors the winner, they take all (well most) seats, inflating their representation in the parliament. So probably it doesn't matter if the Tisza and DK could form coalition.

The Mi Hazánk brings a very typical right radical form, with the 5-7%. These voters probably those who doesn't like the Jew-love of the Fidesz, and those who have struggles with the Gypsies. They won't ever get a real voice nowhere. But this 5% is about the same since the MIÉP (the first such party) was founded 1993. Jobbik had a growth when they dialed down the rhetoric and went softer, taking many voters with conservative tendencies and aversion of Fidesz. These now vote on the Tisza.
The DK hanging on is fantastic. There are still some people who prefer them. Pensioners? I dunno. I'm fairly sure young voters would rather pick KKP, Momentum, MMN, Greens, or LMP than them. But they are probably drift towards the Tisza instead.

And back to the TISZA Párt.
As I mentioned before I "get to" listen to the radio this year, and literally all is Fidesz propaganda. If it's about the opposition then it's Magyar Péter constantly. So much shit they pour onto him, that's hilarious. And really activates those braincells. They add to the hype. And if the Fidesz really "hates" someone, that makes those who hate the Fidesz support that person. It's the "Dirty Fred effect" - as I call it, based on a character of old Hungarian pulp fiction novels, where Dirty Fred (a kind of an antihero) used his own unpopularity to influence others to help someone whom he wanted to help. We could call this reverse psychology.
I believe the reason behind the hype around Magyar Péter is that the Fidesz wants to keep the opposition afloat, so they can keep up the appearance of democratic legitimacy. The previous opposition parties just couldn't keep their voterbase.
By how much this party is "controlled" as they say. I dunno. But the voters have real antipathy towards Fidesz.

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US presidential election's gonna happen on next Tuesday. Finally ending the year long masturbation they call campaign. Then comes the tune titled The Election Was A Fraud after it - no matter who wins. Actually it was 4 year long campaign because they played that song in 2021 for a year, then in 2022 they had the midterm elections, which is another one year jerkoff, then they were warming up for the primaries for another year.
Among all this circlejerk Japan carried out a whole campaign just under two weeks, with the election on October 27th). Sure the governing party shot itself into the feet but still.
In 2021 the Liberal Democratic Party (the Jimintō) won the elections with quite the lead, although with an already dropping popularity (they gained power in 2012 the first time with Shinzo Abe, since then they had won each time, but with less seats at each elections).
The Jiminto has a 3 year cycle for its presidency, and the former defense minister, Shigeru Ishiba won in 2024 September. Starting from October he took over the seat of the Prime Minister from his predecessor Fumio Kishida. Thinking it's time to reinforce his position via a general election, where he could lead his party to victory, he announced a snap election. However the popularity of Jiminto is not so shiny due to the so called slush fund scandal (they funneled campaign funds into private bank accounts), and got less than half of the seats in the Japanese House of Representatives (the Japanese Parliament, the Kokkai, is bicameral). Now they are forced to govern from minority.
The biggest winner is the major opposition party the Constitutional Democratic Party (Rikken-minshutō) which got a whopping over 50 seats more than in previous election. However smaller parties emerged too, so now there are 9 parties in the legislature instead of the previous 5.

What are the implications?
Firstly not sure.
But.
The Far East might get volatile, with Best Korea's getting Russian support, and with the constant sabre rattling around Taiwan, god knows what will happen if the Ukraine war is nearing, or it gets finished. A strong, but at least fit to work Japanese legislation and government could mean a pillar of stability, but an indecisive one could prevent Japan from acting in time.
As for their inner politics, I dunno if they would better or worse, and with whom. Japan has its problems, but they live comfy and secure I think.

 >>/52538/
It's hard to say what this will do as they still haven't formed a government yet I don't think. Ishiba is the best candidate to deal with the geopolitical situation, that's probably why his party picked him but at the same time because of the weak position of the LDP I think he will struggle to make decisive decisions if they have to be made, he would have to work with the minor parties to do that. 

As for inner politics, I have no idea. I guess it will depend on what demands minor parties make of the LDP in order to form a government. It will means they won't be able to make any drastic changes though you would think.

Japan does alright. They are often attacked for their stagnating economy but that is complicated. Yes their GDP growth is slower than many other nations but their GDP growth per Capita is actually inline with most other OECD nations, it was fairly close to Australia before Covid and since then things have gone strange for both of us(well the whole world really but still). 
The reason Japan's economy isn't growing is because of a lack of population growth whereas most of the growth of Australia's economy comes from Migrants. If you ignore that and look at wealth growth by the individual then we are similar. Though Australia is one of the richest nations on earth per capita so we are still richer than they are in that way.

Japan has problems with inflation but the whole world does. Though in Japan's case it's largely because of a depreciating yen, so it's a bit different. But the yen should go up once the US and the rest of the world lower interest rates enough.

Japan has massive debt too of course but they have low interests rates and the debt is held by the Japanese themselves, so it's not as big of an issue as the US in my opinion(the US spends more on interest on it's debt that it does on defence).

Japan has issues but they are structural, they have a declining and ageing population and there is nothing you can do about that other than import migrants which isn't really a long term solution and has it's own problems. So they have to learn to continue with a declining population(which we all should be learning to do instead of importing migrants).

But also we don't know what's going to happen in regards to Trump, China and trade wars and how that will hit Japan if Trump gets in. Australia should be fine, the USA would be dumb to put tariffs on us, even China rethought their attempts at that. But Japan is a direct competitor to the USA, China and the EU in many ways so a trade war could do interesting things...

 >>/52539/
You are right. They are still forming the new government, probably negotiate with potential coalition partners.
> they have to learn to continue with a declining population(which we all should be learning to do instead of importing migrants).
So much this.

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Finally Burgers are voting today. Or rather finish voting.
Not sure what will happen if they elect Trump. However I hear it that things will continue how they are going now if Harris gets to be the presidentess. I'm not sure about that too. Despite the obvious continuity it is a chance to approach things differently. The Cabinet will also be shuffled, new people can bring change of policies.
I do not believe Harris will get elected. She's even less WASP male than Obongo was. Is this the time for a female president yet? I doubt it.

Can't find the spurdo comic strip I wanted to post. Oh well.

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First fucking article...
Listening Trump giving his victory speech at the moment. I'm still unsure what's gonna happen now. Ought to be interesting even if it won't be enjoyable. What the Biden administration did was just pure painful. Well at least we have this wonderful war tho, that's interesting even if it isn't enjoyable.

Here's the article itself, nothing much, just refreshing memories that Orbán is #1 Trump fan.
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-pm-viktor-orban-donald-trump-win-us-elections-2024/
Anyway this win means some favors towards Orbán, and perhaps for Hungary too I don't think all the moves of Orbán is in the interest of the people and country, so I always have doubts. Surely it will be in the interest of Israel.
Well at least the Hungarian presidency of the EU might have a bit more weight, despite it ends on December 31 - and Trump only gets to be president from January 1st. The promise of future change will make EU officials think a bit. There is already a change in communication in the West think of Scholz and his hard facts, liek "Ukraine won't enter NATO" I assume those voices will strengthen.
End of the week (I think starting tomorrow) Hungary will host an EU summit thingy. Surely will be endorsements of Trump, and they are expecting the Georgian PM to be present - and as an unexpected visitor even perhaps Zelensky will come to Budapest.
Now this could be awkward, and communication will surely change in Kiev too. Towards Hungary as well, since at the moment Trump's little fav in the EU is Orbán.
And again my problem is if all these communication changes will actually translates to something good for our people. I dunno.

Trump is saying right now:
> promises were made, promises will be kept
Which means he'll do entirely something else, heh.

Trump has won by quite a bit it seems, he might even win the popular vote. It looks like the Republicans will get both the house and the senate too.

 >>/52546/
At the moment I think he has over 51% of the popular votes.
And I assume the electoral ones will climb over 300. He got something 305 the like in 2016.
This isn't that high. Bush senior bagged over 400 electorates.

Thinking about Trump's 5 minutes gibberish about Elon Musk's rocket. Quite an Biden-esque moment.

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It appears you can say "nigger" again. Also Im laughing at the fact that Kennedy got 600k votes despite telling people not to vote for him.

 >>/52548/
Kennedy deserved more to be honest.

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Trying to get the speech of Zelensky, but Piped doesn't allow filtering and ordering and whatnot.

Wtf. Videos of the arrivals are uploaded, the opening speech of Orbán is up there, Macron talking is up, but no Zelensky. Even the fugging sky news livestream cuts away when Orbán passes the round to Zelensky. What the actual fuck?
I can find articles with a handful of quotes of his speech tho.

Found a speech of Zelensky, but not the one I wanted to listen. And I won't listen this one either he talks in Ukrainian, no translation, subtitles or anything.

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Thinking about what this Trump victory could mean to Hungary. Fidesz/govt media sells it as the next best thing ever, here's the Canaan, hallelujah, we win and all that.
I'm skeptical about this. Orbán likes to talk about how there is a struggle between "decoupling" and "connectivity" within the EU. Former means cutting off ties to certain countries, Russia, China for starter, but essentially could mean everyone who aligned to them. And connectivity means keeping relations and trade with them, not just have a closeted gay club within The West, but to be open to The Rest.
Sidenote: Orbán and co. likes to call the first solution as "globalist", while keeping up with global trade with everyone is not it in their books.
But back to the matter at hand. Trump promoting a trade war with Chiner, does not help with the connectivity as Orbán dreams it for us. And frankly "ending the war on the Ukraine" might also not pan out how expected. Will the trade be restored with Russia? Won't be purchasing cheap gas from them frowned upon? Trump was against the Nord Stream pipeline, I'm pretty sure he won't advocate for restoring it. He wants Europe to buy American gas, or from someone that suits to their foreign politics and economy.
Russia and China remains a competitor for the US, and this Putin's lapdog stuff is just US campaign propaganda.
On the other hand, now that a pal's gonna sit in the White House, we kinda have to dance more for their tune, at least drop the rhetoric of the "rebel" and naysayer.
I'm pretty sure there will be more support to Israel. Hungary and our govt has good relations with Israel, so I'm expecting more propaganda in the media (both Fidesz/govt and opposition) that licks that Heeb hiney shiny. And perhaps more active help in some form. I dunno about that usually there is 0 mentions about various cooperations and partnerships with Israel. Sometimes they show us a photo of Orbán and Netanyahu together.
Frankly all in all that Chinese angle will be the neuralgic point. They were building battery factory here, and perhaps electric car assembly plant. And there are old plans of the Belt and Road, like the railroad between Belgrade and Budapest. And whatnot (see the Chinese university and such).

 >>/52583/
I know that people are saying it could have a negative impact on Australia. Tariffs on Australia are not such a big deal and probably will not happen but the tariffs on China would negatively affect Australia as they are our biggest trading partner and a slow Chinese economy would mean less demand for our resources which means less money for us but also means that there is less demand for the Australian dollar which would reduce the value of our currency and thus cause import costs to rise.
But then the PM has also said their may be opportunity, he said that if Trump starts scrapping funding for Green energy programmes then Australia is well positioned to capitalise on it and pick up some of these green energy industries and investments here. But he did not specify what we would pick up exactly though to be fair Trump hasn't said what he will scrap in the first place either yet.

Hungary will also be negatively impacted by sanctions too though won't you? Given that you are part of the EU. Though we still don't fully know what sanctions will be placed on the EU. A slow China might not be good for you either.

There is also something else that could affect us both, that being Trumps plans to reduce corporate tax. If the US lowers tax rates even further than it already has that's going to put even more pressure on the rest of the world to do the same to stop business relocating to the US.

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 >>/52586/
Sounds like it is have to be a balancing act.
That green energy thing: perhaps setting up solar farms in the desert. But then that's liek 90% Chinese imports. The hardware I mean.

> Hungary will also be negatively impacted by sanctions too though won't you? Given that you are part of the EU.
According to this thing US is a fairly large export destination for the Hungary, almost 4%. Well it was before the war, would be nice to see fresh data. But whatever happens it will have an impact.