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Daraa insurgency flared up a lot.

>>/44601/
> We host more than %50 of worldd refugees it will eventually bite Europe bad. When shit hits the fan blame your politicians for buying out erdoğan instead of encouraging their permanent return in syria
But there can only be a permanent refugee solution when the government recovers control of the whole country, and Erdogan delayed that from happening last year when he interrupted the successful offensive in Idlib.
> But there can only be a permanent refugee solution when the government recovers control of the whole country
The Free Syrian Government, yes.
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>>/44603/
Any side but Assad is irrelevant for a while now (picrel was made in 2018...) in the topic of reforming the country and state. Hence Turkey's intervention stretched out the conflict (on the other hand this might give a bargaining chip to those who oppose Assad rule, maybe they can get concessions).

>>/44601/
What is the composition of the refugees? Where they came from? How much are from Syria, and other countries?
As the migrant crisis emerged in 2015 the Frontex started to publish papers about the migrants, where and how they enter and their place of origin. As time passed the ratio of Syrians fall, but then the Frontex got lazy and published these things more sporadically and stopped to follow. Maybe gonna try and dig into their documents on their site.

>>/44602/
> Daraa insurgency flared up a lot.
And the SAA artillery activity south of the M4 at Idlib looks systematic shelling.  Are they planning a push finally to the highway, but in return in the South rebels started diversions to hold down some govt forces?
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Well I guess here's one screenshot of Donbass. Dunno how much "ceasefire violations" happen normally.
Also check out that news about a new toy. What could that be?
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>>/44605/
> Also check out that news about a new toy. What could that be?

Some kind of typical jamming station.
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>>/44605/
I actually know people from Ukraine now. So that picture worries me a lil bit. And makes me really :( face
>>/44602/
We didnt precenr anything in idlib. If assad tooknit over we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there. Half of the country is governed by ypg do you think idlib is the worst threat for regime?

Assad despite what he says dont want his syrians back. He is glad he Got rid of them.
>>/44623/
I messed it up I wrote it while half asleep. 

> precenr
prevent*

> tooknit
took it*
>>/44623/
> We didnt precenr anything in idlib.
Turkish "observation posts" were placed all over the border and the inside in the way of the advancing SAA forces. And then Turkish convoys entering blocked further offensive. Assad and pals would have got back Idlib in 2019 or when was this (fugg 2020 just flew away).
> we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there
Is this an ongoing process in the region still on the hand of the rebels?
> Half of the country is governed by ypg
Is it really? The SAA had to move in to meet the Turkish forces when they established the security zone inside Syria on the land nominally in the hand of the YPG and co. The US backing of the Kurds was lowered considerable when their protection was handed over to Assad essentially (I dunno where I saved those genious Trump tweets about the event, so requesting from any Bernds). So YPG doesn't matter that much, and while I do not debate they still have considerable amount of autonomy over stuff, I question the extent of it.
>>/44626/
Currently there is 3-4 million settled refugees in idlib. 

> Syria on the land nominally in the hand of the YPG and co
No, YPG is on process to create a legitimate state and they are controlling oil fiels also they have access to euphrates river. So YPG is not dependent on Assad, in fact I could claim otherwise if we take account the fact Russia is playing with both sides and YPG has full American support, the situation is much worse for Assad.

> So YPG doesn't matter that much
Yes that's the reason why think tanks and the western media glorifies them to the point of brainwashing the western people. You don't continue to bet on a horse which you think it will lose. 

Anyway if you think we are in idlib for landgrab you are out of your mind. I would agree on this one though, if we didnt have a populist incompetent leader we could reach an agreement with Assad give him what he wanted (which all other parties would besides HDP even from start of the civil war) in return we would let him use idlib as retarded islamist containment zone. If he want to get rid of those people eventually he would have to resettle them in preferably irrelevant shithole somewhere in Syria.
>>/44617/
> ...maybe look into moving if things get bad enough Turkeybernd?
If I will have to move which means millions will as well. Which means I would be treated with no dignity. I didn't born to live as slave in europe. Europe is in no position to enrich millions of refugees with luxuries and europe feels existensial threat just because they take 10.000 refugees. 

Europeans are not humanitarian as much as you think, it's just you guys afford to be seem that way because of your media power and prospered lifestyle. I can feel the murderous itch of euros as if they are waiting to reunlock nazi mode. It would be safe for a few refugees but not for millions.
>>/44627/
> we could reach an agreement with Assad give him what he wanted (which all other parties would besides HDP even from start of the civil war) in return we would let him use idlib as retarded islamist containment zone.

Isn't this actually happened now?
>>/44629/
if that was the case assad wouldnt attack idlib neither Turkey would try to push even more.
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>>/44627/
> Currently there is 3-4 million settled refugees in idlib.
That's a lot of people. How is the situation in Turkey?
How many refugee camps are there? Or there's a big one?
The YPGs river access means they can use it as a water source, or as a transportation infrastructure, or both, and others (like natural border, a defense line, etc)?
> if you think we are in idlib for landgrab 
Noone implied that.


(For no particular reason I wanted to post that Turkish pepe sending Merkelmen to Grease from Izmir, but can't find it. Gonna post picrel instead. I highly doubt anyone knows the number of people who entered the EU and never left since 2015.)
> I can feel the murderous itch of euros as if they are waiting to reunlock nazi mode
If we can believe in the events of the Euro Cup we have a big division in the population along the lines of BLM and LGBT, and whatever made up issue the media feeds to us. There won't be any united front when the refugee/migrant question comes up again (sometimes after people get bored by the covid hysteria).

>>/44631/
> Assad wouldnt attack idlib
For now it seems they strike on the area south of M4 which road would be a border, and patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces. Or something like that was the deal couple of years ago. Things could have changed, ofc.
>>/44632/
> How is the situation in Turkey?
bad

> How many refugee camps are there? Or there's a big one?
I dont know the numbers but they are starting to become majority in one city and a few counties. There is 6 million of them in Turkey and 3-4 million in idlib. They are freely roaming in the cities, crime rates has been increased. And since we have no border security if one does get killed by syrians or afghans they are to be deported but they can freely come back. 

We cant protest or rebel because we know Erdoğan is arming them and wont hesitate to use against us. In a civil war EU and USA would freely intervene and bomb the shit all of us. They would freely bomb our military, our reseources and our cities and thanks to their media power everyone would believe what they would say. Obviouslt they would try to weaken us as much as possible so we wont ever dream to be independent. Russia would do the same if they can.

So the extremely idiotic slogans like "just revolt like you can toplle erdogan!!" just gives us a sad cringe. And lately lots of fake news spreading by "totally independent and unbiased" foreign news agencies mostly to provoke civil unrest or worse. 

> The YPGs river access means they can use it as a water source, or as a transportation infrastructure, or both, and others (like natural border, a defense line, etc)?
Both, plus, oil without water means nothing at all. We have both of the most important water source in the entire region. If you take a look at the kurds claim in Turkey on the map, you will see why south east anatolia wants to be seperated from us and certain states are supporting it via "independent" NGOs.
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>>/44631/
> if that was the case assad wouldnt attack idlib neither Turkey would try to push even more.

Considering that border is stable for long time, looks like there is no real attacks from both sides. Local skirmishes and obligatory shelling is just a part and parcel (c) of modern local conflicts. Like Donbass situation, where that happens everyday but no real action is planned from both sides. 

I guess these attacks are more like opportunistic action of local forces.  Local militias try to get something with quiet approval from top, with chance that other side would not intervene heavily. Everyone need to constantly prove that they can enforce their claims, because all agreements are nothing without backing power. Like in that story where Russian mercenaries tried to grab some oil-related place with idea that "these Americans are cowards", but it didn't work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

>>/44635/
> They are freely roaming in the cities, crime rates has been increased.

Why there aren't in camps like in some European countries?
>>/44623/
> If assad tooknit over we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there

So how is the process of setting those syrians/kurds back in rebel Idlib going? According to what you were saying it sounds like more people are pouring into turkey, not less. What is the plan? Prop them up militarily as a kind of buffer statelet where to dump the war refugees and kurds later?
> Assad despite what he says dont want his syrians back. He is glad he Got rid of them.

Your view seems to be that the syrian government wants its territory back but not the rebels, preferring them to flee into neighbor countries rather than resettle them elsewhere. But I have also read that the rebels are not a majority and they just hold local population hostage because they control natural resources, production, and distribution channels, and the foreign aid. This would mean that syria would also want most of the people there. Why couldn't this be negotiated with Syria? Has Assad hinted that he won't negotiate with Turkey the return of refugees?
> Half of the country is governed by ypg

They cannot last without their US patrons

>>/44635/
> because we know Erdoğan is arming them and wont hesitate to use against us

The syrian rebel mercenaries? Is it still happening through the "humanitarian aid" border, as that man Peker >>/44391/ said?
What about some of his other claims?
yewtu.be/user/pekersedsat
>>/44638/
> ger-tr.jpg

kek
> Your view seems to be that the syrian government wants its territory back but not the rebels, preferring them to flee into neighbor countries rather than resettle them elsewhere. But I have also read that the rebels are not a majority and they just hold local population hostage because they control natural resources, production, and distribution channels, and the foreign aid.
Those aren't mutually exclusive, most of Idlib's population might well dislike both the government and whichever specific rebel group lords over them. Idlib in particular was a high unrest province from the beginning and has only received more anti-government people since then. Refugees are also more likely to dislike the government, as it is rebel-controlled neighborhoods which got depopulated the most by the fighting (rebels don't have as much artillery, or else it'd be equal). 
That said, even if the government doesn't want the refugees back/they don't want to return, ending the war early is still better than dragging it out. Once the war is deemed over, conditions will improve, the government might do internal changes, international pressure will relax and more refugees will want to return.
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Back to US, back to US, back to Afghanistan.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/4/how-do-afghanistan-forces-and-taliban-compare
> The Taliban now controls about half of Afghanistan’s districts
Who wanna bet, no stopping there?

But here's the comparison, tl;dr version:
1. personnel (estimates)
Afghan national security forces (including the army, special forces, air force, police, and intelligence) total strength: 307 000
From this the combat forces: 180 000
Taliban: 55-85 000
2. funding (further estimates)
Afghan military: $5-6 billion
Taliban: $300 million to $1,5 billion
3. weapons and equipment (this one listed in a silly way)
Afghan military: Western made weapons, assault rifles, armoured vehicles, artillery, surveillance drones, night-vision goggles, air force (with attack helicopters)
Taliban: mainly small arms and light weapons, RPGs, mortars, various small rockets, some AA and AT capabilities, suicide bombers, IEDs, captured Western made weapons and equipment
4. cohesion and morale (how they measured this?)
Afghan military: suffered high casualties, corruption, desertions, now foreign troops departed, poor planning and leadership, low morale
Taliban: internal rifts, but greater cohesion, religious zeal

Considering the Taliban has the initiative and pushes on - for now - unstoppable, this does not look good for the govt. the US left behind.

Also, I found this:
https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan
The Afghan government left behind by the US is fucked. Taliban moves forward quick, they took over Kandahar (2nd largest city) today. Even Hungarian media says they are unstoppable.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/13/afghanistan-taliban-herat-kandahar-kabul-cities-live-updates

These maps I got from here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/12/10-maps-to-understand-afghanistan-interactive
Fugg, all the maps I dl'd is broken. Gonna see what I can do about it.
Reading reports on Twitter that Taliban are in Maidan Shar – 30km from Kabul, and on the road from Kabul to Hazarajat.
They'll be in Kabul by tomorrow if they want so.
>>/44741/
I bet some units are already inside.
According to internet rumours/propaganda:
> some taliban soldiers fell in a confrontation

> a handful (supposedly) of the Kabul forces desecrated the bodies

> shortly afterwards a taliban offensive takes and secures the territory

> the whole company (supposedly) that mutilated the fallen is executed in retaliation

Also, yanks instructing its embassy to destroy information and evacuate, so doesn't seem like they have much hope in Kabul holding for long
Western feminists squealing like sows. Here's hoping they get BTFO, literally if necessary.
On the other hand, I wish this doesn't end up spilling and destabilising the whole region (this might have been an important goal of the US withdrawal: create chaos for China and the ex-USSR stans)
Several weeks ago an occupied bus exploded in Pakistan killing several Pakistanis and Chinese. Nobody claimed responsibility for the attack, but Islamabad believes it was by TTP (the Pakistani Taliban, not directly connected to the Afghan Taliban) facilitated by anti-Pakistan/anti-China influences (India and Kabul).
Couple of days ago another occupied bus exploded in Russia. One died in hospital and a few are injured. Unknown so far if accident or attack
>>/44747/
That event might be happened. Might be instigated, but could be normal thing to do around there.
> I wish this doesn't end up spilling and destabilising the whole region 
If the Taliban takes the country over quick, there will be no destabilization. It seems they gained free hand to do whatever, so establishing their order shouldn't take long. Both (taking actions freely and the short timeframe) means the region will be stable again. The war there was a destabilization factor. Now outer meddling stops, and the inner forces have the ability to resolve their problems. Maybe it will be brutal, but resolving the problems and judging, labeling the taken actions are two different things.
Tl;dr Taliban takeover will lead to stabilization.
> bus exploded in Pakistan 
> bus exploded in Russia
What their foreign policy will be, or how their victory will influence the action of others, I dunno.
Also these could be provocations again.
>>/44742/
Aaand... they're in Kabul.
Ghani has surrendered, they already held a press conference. Said they'll only do executions and stonings if such is the court rulings. And that women will be allowed to leave house.
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Looks familiar?
>>/44749/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/15/taliban-continues-advances-captures-key-city-of-jalalabad
Just wow. The whole thing on behalf of NATO was just handing over the power to the Taliban. No way NATO HQ and political leadership was that misinformed they thought the govt. left behind can stand on its feet.

>>/44750/
Nod really. Did not follow. Context?
>>/44750/
Oh you meant as Vietnam reference.
> Ghani left Kabul for Tajikistan
t. Al Jazeera.

>>/44750/
> Helicopters land at the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban advanced on the Afghan capital. [Rahmat Gul/AP Photo]
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> Taliban enters Afghan presidential palace after Ghani flees
> “The former Afghan president has left the nation,” Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, said in a video on his Facebook page.
> Facebook page
Hilarious.

>>/44747/
I'm still thinking what could it mean internationally, geopolitically.
For example Iran gains a safer neighbour - in case of US meddling, I dunno Talibs means a different threat to them or not. Maybe Afghanistan will be a land route between Iran and China.
And there's the opium and its trade ofc.
Some expect a wave of refugees. Taliban hold all the border crossings, probably only those can leave whom they allow. Read Pakistan closed her borders.
>>/44754/
Russia diplomat will hold a talk with the Taliban tomorrow, based on which Russia will decide whether or not to recognise them as the legitimate government.
Taliban already travelled to China earlier to establish ties.
There's currently a ruckus in India on how they should respond. There's the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, which means that Afghans of Dharmic faith who have been in India before the end of 2014 were automatically eligible for citizenship, but as far as I know there's no plan to actively take any more in yet. Some are implying India should just let everyone in so that they can brag to the wect how progressive and liberal they are. But that opens another question of how to airlift them over Pakistan.
Iran and Taliban used to be enemies (theological differences lol) but I'm assuming Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.
>>/44755/
> whether or not to recognise them as the legitimate government.
Noone else at the steering wheel. Even West can huff and puff now, unless prepared to move back in. They don't have to acknowledge the Taliban ofc, but throwing straight in the arms of Russia-China (and even Iran) isn't a good move. Maybe changing policy and building a relationship that leaves channels open would be better.
> Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.
In that we cannot be sure. Previously I said NATO HQ and political leadership had to know the the Afghan govt. will fail quick. But to be honest Western leadership also can be: 1. stupid; 2. incompetent; 3. stupid and incompetent.
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>>/44754/
Pretty nice composition with that traditional painting in the back, they look similar
> For example Iran gains a safer neighbour - in case of US meddling

At least short-medium term situation should be clearly better than having more US bases next door
> Maybe Afghanistan will be a land route between Iran and China.

yes, if Afghanistan can be estabilised quickly enough then maybe they can be offered some role in China's new "silk road" economic area that we hear from time to time. But the obvious problem for China, though, is the effects of militant islamism on Xinjiang and uygurs and the flame-fanning that comes from the western media. One might think they should be able to deal with it economically (rather than militarily, I suppose they won't be eager to saddle themselves with war), but the problem is that the Taliban is not very centralised, so it's uncertain whether their authorities can keep whatever bilateral deal they sign, even if they do so in good faith
> And there's the opium and its trade ofc.

Interestingly, the recent opium boom happened during the occupation. Maybe they will burn them all again as they once did.
> Pakistan closed her borders.

Pakistan has a porous border with Afghanistan. There are even some pockets over which Islamabad doesn't have good control and are de-facto dominated by TTP chiefs.
I do think they preferred the Taliban over the US puppet government, since they seem to have provided them some help or at least refuge. The obvious reasons are being islamic vs. liberal-secular, and the fact that India was invested in the Kabul government (for the same religious reason), so Pakistan had go against it

I think it all comes down to whether Taliban will settle down and try to maintain a unified policy between all their different chieftains
>>/44758/
Still surprising how quickly it all crumbled. If the US knew then they deliberately misled as part of some secret deal. But those crazy and pathetic scenes at the airport make me suspect that they were just winging it as they went along
>>/44755/
> Iran and Taliban used to be enemies (theological differences lol) but I'm assuming Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.
Also depends on how pragmatic the Taliban will be. If they alienate the Hazara too much, Iran may retaliate. That will depend on how they'll try to build their power structure. There's no unifying Afghan nationalism and they chiefly represent a subset of Pashtuns. For prolonged stability they'll have to establish alliances with elites of other ethnicities and a modus vivendi with their populations, or their power will fall apart.
It'll be interesting to watch how they choose to run the country now. How much of the old regime's administrative structure, most of which stands intact, will they absorb into theirs, and how will this change the character of the new regime? Will they enforce a more moderate sharia than what they did in the 90s? How much development will they pursue, given that it can threaten the permanence of the social order they prize?

I suppose their neighbors will want a stable and moderate, or stable and isolationist, regime, while America will back the more fundamentalist and outward-looking factions to destabilize the region. Those will always exist because it's in the nature of the Taliban's ideology, but will be powerful only under certain conditions.
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Some numbers on the country:

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/adam-toozes-chartbook-29-afghanistans
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/adam-toozes-chartbook-30-back-to

The major points are that the Soviet occupation was an order of magnitude more violent than any of the fighting in the 90s and American occupation, causing a catastrophic demographic crisis; and the growth and development under American occupation were confined to the cities, leaving the countryside behind.
Taliban have so far:

- allowed to have a woman interview them on Kabul TV:
> In this program, host Beheshta Arghand interviews Mawlawi Abdulhaq Hemad, a close member of the Taliban’s media team, about Kabul’s situation and house-to-house searches in the city. https://youtube.com/watch?v=4B0ryE3i7R8 

- visited a Shi'a ashura (mourning) event in a Hazara neighbourhood:
https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1427636075430825998

They held a presser (the first one), I'm copying what BBC says were the main points on their live ticker:
> The Taliban's first news conference since taking control of Afghanistan covered many topics. Here are the main takeaways:

>    The group are actively working on forming a government and that it "will be announced after completion" said spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid
>    He said "women are going to be very active within our society" and that they would be allowed to work "within the frameworks of our Islamic laws", but didn't ellaborate on what that means in practice 
>    When asked about contractors and translators who have worked with foreign powers, Mujahid said that "nobody is going to be treated with revenge" and that the group had "pardoned everybody for the benefit of stability or peace in Afghanistan"
>    He said the Taliban promised to respect the role of the press and pledged that "private media can continue to be free and independent"
>    But he warned that "the media should not work against us"
>    When asked about the risk of the country housing al-Qaeda fighters or other extremists, Mujahid said that "Afghanistan's soil is not going to be used against anybody"
>    He also claimed that the Taliban had planned to halt their advance "at the gates of Kabul so the transition process could be completed smoothly", but were forced to enter the city "to ensure the security of the residents" 
I think I seen someone comment they also said they are committed to once again end opium production.

So yeah, I think they're trying to be pragmatic
Fugg, too many articles, too little time to read. Gonna reflect on what was posted here by Bernd.
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>>/44760/
> Pretty nice composition with that traditional painting in the back, they look similar 
They do understand theatrics.
> recent opium boom happened during the occupation
Some say opium trade was in the Taliban's hand. Even Al Jazeera article here >>/44677/ says they get the funding - partially - from "narcotics industry".
> Maybe they will burn them all again as they once did. 
I also did hear they did that, or against the opium trade. It would be nice to see clear in this question as well. Since you mentioned their lack of central control, and high self-sufficiency of local leaders could be some profits from it, while others taking measures against it.

>>/44774/
> There's no unifying Afghan nationalism 
Afghanistan is also a very "diverse" country with many ethnicities and languages. But the intermarriages are extensive, the individuals have other ties than their ethnicity, and Islam is Universalist. So while nationalism can't join people, Islam could (liek everyone there is Muslim), state and country is just a unit of government, and not an expression of the nation's sovereignty.
> How much development will they pursue, given that it can threaten the permanence of the social order they prize?
> It'll be interesting to watch
I concur.

>>/44776/
Thant needs a closer look on my part.

>>/44778/
It seems they make an effort to look agreeable and use the media to build sympathy and acceptance towards them.
I'm wondering about the "fleeing Afghans", how many of them want to leave due to the danger of their security, and how many of them are would be "economic migrants" how just want comfy life on Western gibsmedats.
>>/44796/
the "muh poor desperate fleeing afghans" is msm distraction from the usg's pure clown-world chaotic retreat, and also leftist catnip so that absolute women-like morons can cathartically feel long-distance commiseration for stupid brownies at the other side of the planet, and so that slightly less idiotic morons such as yourself can "wonder" whether they are "refugees" or yet another weight for the aging welfare states in the west that will be their destination plus another injection of foreign dna for the populations they will further dilute
taliban has already claimed they will not persecute the collaborationist (and why the fuck should we give a shit if they are being honest or not, obviously the puppet government was less favored than taliban since nobody seems to have lifted a finger to prevent its collapse)
and look at this: one of the "poor desperate fleeing afghans", so desperate that they tried to cling to the fuselage of that us airplane, was a young member of the national football team crushed by the retreating landing gear he was hanging on to, his remains fell to the ground when the wheels were again deployed for landing (some parts of his body anyway)
remarks:
1- nobody will dispute that somebody who goes to such lengths is a prime example of "desperate fleeing afghans"
2- tell me what risk of reprisal from taliban can be expected for a national team football player, bullshit
3- rumors were apparently spread in kabul saying that anyone who managed to get onto a plane was to be treated as "refugee" (and therefore could expect a comfy welfare life in the west), which likely drove most the crowds to the airport
4- we don't want migrants whose iq bell curve spans that of fellows like this one 
5- the people who one might reasonably expect some kind of reprisal against are the officials of the fleeing government (if they don't agree to some political/economic deal) and those rats were the very first to escape the sinking ship, some in their own comfortable and not-at-all-crowded-except-for-the-wads-of-cash private airplanes (it's very telling how after fleeing like rats some of these absolute POS took to twatter to excuse themselves by saying that they instead "were pushed inside the plane" by other rats anxious to gtfo, and writing not in whatever arabic language but in english ffs)

there is zero need to accept these so-called "fleeing afghans", there's nothing in it for us (nothing good that is), only the empire needs to save face and appear "merciful" and "good" after 20 years of fucking around in shitholistan and the clownery of the withdrawal

also, here's another aspect for you to include in your "wondering": terrorist cells are once again being flown to the west, invited by our own inept and traitorous governments
>>/44797/
The implication that noone is in danger from the Taliban really shows that you are the one with impaired mental capacity. Literally none of these posts gives anything to the discussion.
>>/44806/
> The implication that noone is in danger from the Taliban

that implication lives in very spacious accommodations inside your empty mind
i said explicitly who can be most reasonably expected to be "in danger" and furthermore i rhetorically questioned whether we should give a fuck either way (answer: no)
> gives anything to the discussion.

it "gave" so much to the discussion, that it apparently gave you nothing to discuss, except for the mentioned incorrect implication
>>/44807/
Your turbo-pol one bit thinking and the way how it manifests in your writing makes your walls of texts unreadable. Besides your condescending remarks and insults shows how weightless what you write. Call your therapist and take your meds.
>>/44776/
Read Chartbook #29.
The US policy was absolute failure. They pumped the money in ("modernization of the economy" = inflating corruption and creating a stratum in the Afghan society whom well being depends on the handouts) which did nothing to gain the support of the wider population, but deepened poverty and social division pushing everyone but their corrupt puppets in the open arms of the Taliban.
Ghani and pals had no chance (rules of Machiavelli applies).
>>/44776/
I suggest checking the recent "chartbooks", this also gives couple of good insights:
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-13-financing-afghanistans
I suspect as Ghani and Ahmady were planted they trusted Afghanistan true ally with the safekeeping of the gold.
Also in previous chartbooks Tooze says that the Afghans got a taste for phones which singlehandedly raised the import of electricity. So their import consists chiefly of phones and electricity. I bet there are other consumer products of modern societies are imported, which essentially are just junk, but sucked up large portion of the foreign aid. So imports can be safely lowered since most of that are non-essentials.
They're still gonna have problems with covering food to prevent mass starvation (due to the mentioned droughts), but the problems of the Talibans economically aren't that serious. Unless Afghans can't live without their phones.
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While the Taliban took over Afghanistan, some resistance still continues here and there. This article is about Ahmad Massoud and his Tajik fighters in the Panjshir Valley.
https://www.rt.com/news/532764-afghanistan-panjshir-northern-alliance/
Some more info about the place and the situation:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/reflections-on-events-in-afghanistan-6/
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Was an attack against the airport in Kabul where US is doing their evacuation. Soldiers and civilians died. It seems the Delta variant of ISIS ISIS-K executed bombing attacks, mostly with IEDs. The Taliban secures a larger perimeter around the airport, or the ways leading in, so the US troops can do their job (who also secures an inner perimeter at the airport). They are continuing the evacuation, not that they have a choice in the matter.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/27/us-braces-for-more-possible-attacks-after-deadly-kabul-blasts

Biden addressed the nation yesterday (starts about 22:30, goes to ~51:00):
https://tube.cadence.moe/watch?v=9tBR5cMoiOAhttps://youtube.com/watch?v=9tBR5cMoiOA 
Some strong words, some clear thoughts, and some scrambled gibberish.
Why those journalists(male) sound like de-masculated homos and/or eunuchs?
> if osama bin laden as well as al qaeda had chosen to launch an attack when they left saudi arabia out of yemen, did we have ever gone to afghanistan
Since they attacked from Saudi Arabia via Yemen, it's just logical to attack Afghanistan (yes, yes they went hiding there into the underground bunker - where bin Laden was killed by US special forces and then discarded into the ocean during the flight back for some mysterious reason).

Ah found a shorter version I think. Just Biden and the journos:
https://tube.cadence.moe/watch?v=D8UFWCswVIg
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Turkey again in talks about running the airport in Kabul, this time in along with the Taliban. For now it's just talks, but maybe one step in the international recognition of the Taliban led state.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/27/turkey-holds-first-talks-with-the-taliban-in-kabul

Three links due to one event, Putin - Xi Jinping phone call:
https://tass.com/politics/1329999
https://tass.com/politics/1329981
https://tass.com/politics/1329959
Essentially the whole thing was about the cooperation of Russia and China, one major point was Afghanistan ofc. Nothing concrete.
> "The leaders also agreed to engage in more bilateral contacts and closer coordination primarily through diplomatic agencies," the Kremlin added.
Wow, fucking nothing.
One detail I did not hear much about yet (probably because I don't and can't follow everything), is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which includes - besides the two powers - the *stans in Central Asia, India and Pakistan. Number of "observer states"... uhh... oberves(?) this organizationm whatever the fuck this means, I assume it's some kind of entry, hallway, waiting room. One of them is Afhganistan since 2012. Maybe keeping this status is another brick in the international recognition of the Taliban state. And maybe a point for Russia and Chine where they can involve Afghanistan, and weave it into the region and the plans.
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>>/44844/

It is surprising how 78 years old grandpa still can talk and answer the questions relatively adequate.

>>/44845/
> Russia

Fun fact - Taliban is marked as "banned in Russian Federation", so every media must put asterisk and state it in any article. It is interesting how they will avoid it in future when official diplomatic relations would be established. Removing organization from that extremist list is a unique thing, and must be at least partially explained.

ISIS is also in that list, so recent news were like "ISIS (forbidden extremist organization) are made terror act against Taliban (forbidden extremist organization)".

> *stans in Central Asia

Are nothing, so they have no real option to do anything about Taliban anyway.
>>/44846/
He has his embarrassing moments but in general he seems functioning ok. Besides I suspect that some most notably: the "salute the marines" videos are edits.

> state it in any article
Heh, I noticed that in the TACC reports.
> must be at least partially explained
Where a will is, a way will be found.
> that list
Can that be read somewhere?
> Are nothing, so they have no real option to do anything
Is it an issue?
Or liek the Taliban is too strong willed and independent to be puppets in that Shanghai Coop?
>>/44847/
>>that list
> Can that be read somewhere?

There are several lists, but I forgot what lists require specific mark, and what not. Only in Russian though:

http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/npd/terror.htm
https://minjust.gov.ru/ru/documents/7822/

There is also a list of "forbidden materials" that is pretty fun to read, because sometimes it contains things like "file New Video 2.mp4" or such (our judges aren't really bright people): https://minjust.gov.ru/ru/extremist-materials/

> Or liek the Taliban is too strong willed and independent to be puppets in that Shanghai Coop?

Taliban surely will conform to Chinese opinion, and take in account Russian and Pakistani ones. It is hard to predict who will be more influential there though. Maybe even USA/EU will try to influence it. 
At least this bombing already paints Taliban as victims of terror who needs help, not confrontation.
>>/44845/
> When all else fails press Turkey button. Fixes everything!

Why does Turkey get stuck being the foreign invasion endgame boss? Turkey should string the negotiations along to get the highest offer for services and subcontract it all out to someone else. I hear Iran has way too many idle Syrian mercenaries. Or maybe ...? 
Nah. Now is the time to hand the tarmac over to some Chinese paratroopers and call it a day.
>>/44848/
First link seems to me as if were the bans by federal institutions (the supreme court and military courts), while the second are more local and might be not bounding in other oblasts or even settlements.
I scrolled down and saw the items in the list numbers 100. Wow, I thought, round 100? Then I saw it goes on 52 pages. Throw a couple in DeepL, "Life of Mehmet al-Ali" and such titles sounding like biographies and "history of Rus". I see the reason behind some ban, but I also consider them pointless, typically the Islamic material. In and about Russia there are organizations and groups that could cause real trouble for the Russian authorities and can take lives of unrelated civilians too - it's not liek Hungary where essentially in that sense everyone is harmless so no biggie if stuff doesn't get banned - but these groups won't give a shit if such works are on a ban list, or gain even more elan and support if people gets harassed because of those works.
> it contains things like "file New Video 2.mp4" or such (our judges aren't really bright people)
Judges are similar to any other laborer. They do their shift, go shopping, go home, watch telly, sleep, then rinse and repeat. Many things fall way off to their horizon of knowledge, and what they know the world beyond work is highly depends on the individual.
Oh I noticed some descriptive notes like "the speech that starts with [AB line] and ends with the words of [XYZ words]", so sometimes they try to make it more precise, probably due to the lack of title or something.

> Maybe even USA/EU will try to influence it. 
The agreement to keep the airport's vicinity safe, and the talks with Turkey show that the relation between the Taliban and NATO isn't closed and can evolve to anything. So yeah, who knows.
> At least this bombing already paints Taliban as victims of terror who needs help, not confrontation.
I concur, if media wants that they can make a friendly spin on the narration of the situation in Afghanistan. Here left-liberal media is still barking at them, but Fidesz-media is more friendly, and now Macron is pointing at ISIS as the great danger.
>>/44850/
I'm not sure what you mean. But Turkey has ambitions an grabs any chance to show she's relevant, and gain more prestige by acting that everything is her business.
I think a parallel can be drawn between the interwar Italy and contemporary Turkey to some extent. Both with great imperial past reaching close and far creating a new empire from bits and pieces.
>>/44852/
Turks are right to seize opportunity, and they have plenty of opportunities to pursue. In my view Afghanistan is no opportunity for anything involving personal involvement by Turkey. I think they're being played.
On the other hand, it could be an opportunity but only if Turkey plays the other players into wading in so the Turks can better concentrate on all the other stuff going on right around them.
>>/44854/
For now it's just talks.
Turkey with promoting pan-Turanism try to reach into Central Asia towards the *stans (plus the Turkic minorities of Afghanistan). Maybe if they "have" an airport in the neighbourhood that would raise their influence. Plus with a secure base of operation there Turkish companies gain an important infrastructure if they want to establish themselves in the country. Also if Turkey controls that airport, every other nation (and their companies) who wants to use it has to be friendly with the Turks.
Afghanistan has many natural resources waiting to be extracted, which will mean income to the country which means money they'll spend which means they are an untapped market. They'll need mining companies, maybe processing plants, factories. Resources can be exported as raw materials, but it is more profitable if goods are made out of them first. Taliban has money for anything? Not really, everything will need foreign investors, they can be another China at this point.
They have untrained laborers, so first only basic manufacturing can be started there (or such automation that only needs a chimp to push a button), but as income trickles in and education rises, the production can be more complex. Then the workers will earn more money and they can be turned into consumers. Etc.
If Turkey has a foothold and a major air bridge, it can prove a huge advantage on the long run.
>>/44854/
> Turks are right to seize opportunity

Well, sure, like anyone else
> and they have plenty of opportunities to pursue.

Given their current Syria, Iraq, and Libya incursions I think they are overdoing it. The Aleppo and now Idlib business in particular I disapprove of. But I do like watching the kerfuffle when they openly countersignal their stuck-up NATO partners kek
>>/44855/
But wait a minute, you sound as if Turkey wasn't already operating the airport during the occupation
I thought they were already in charge of it and the talks were about renewal of the deal (maybe including recognition of new government)
Maybe I should disable Torposting. Starting to look really weird.
>>/44854/
>>/44856/
> all the other stuff going on right around them.
> they are overdoing it.
Maybe they would be better off without the Afghan adventure, but I can't judge what Turkey can bear.

> But wait a minute, you sound as if Turkey wasn't already operating the airport during the occupation 
If you have source on the Turkish mission, their tasks and the timeframe it would be cool if you could share.
I know they did/do airport management, similar to us, but I think it's more of a flight control thing. I'm not exactly sure what our soldiers did, the list I found earlier and posted here somewhere above or in the previous thread is vague enough.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/8/30/is-isis-k-a-challenge-for-the-taliban
In the video an opinion was voiced, that the Taliban will fail because Taliban and ISIS ideologically are very close, but since the Taliban has to compromise their principles and turn pragmatic since they are wishing to govern in Afghanistan, they will lose support while ISIS will gain more power as more and more people start to back them.
I think this could lead to an interesting scenario where the Taliban could reach out to their former enemies, but in this case it can be demanded from them to compromise more and more. They're gonna have to walk the razor's edge.

About the Belt and Road Initiative of China and recent plans. Not read yet, just put this here so won't forget.
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2021/08/23/chinas-future-trade-and-development-intent-with-afghanistan/
Also Digital Silk Road
https://hillman.substack.com/p/afghanistan-and-chinas-digital-silk
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Al Jazeera has that type of article which gets refreshed "minute-by-minute" (not sure how that format is called, it's like a thread) about Afghanistan. This links should open that up:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/1/biden-says-afghanistan-exit-marks-the-end-of-us-nation-building
It contains a piece:
> US Treasury issued new licence to ease flow of aid in Afghanistan
Basically says there's a paradox in US treatment of Afghanistan, they allow to send aid, while embargoing the country at the same time.
Among the bit fresher news:
> The US froze nearly $9.5bn in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank last month.
As another article posted here stated they have most of the gold of Afghanistan, and it is expected to be frozen by the US.
Ofc articles (in other media outlets too, for example Hungarian ones) say Afghan economy is on the brink of collapse, while humanitarian crisis looms.
So. How about not sending them aid, just give them what's theirs?

Another interesting morsel:
> In Jalalabad, ‘life continues as normal’
> “We spoke to some people and they said it is difficult to figure out what the future holds for them, but so far, they are satisfied about the situation in the streets because there are no more mobile snatching, no more kidnappings, the crime rate is low,” he added.
Law and order can be achieved.
>>/44861/
>>/44861/
> In the video an opinion was voiced, that the Taliban will fail because Taliban and ISIS ideologically are very close, but since the Taliban has to compromise their principles and turn pragmatic since they are wishing to govern in Afghanistan, they will lose support while ISIS will gain more power as more and more people start to back them.

It's don't. I don't think anybody on earth likes isis at this point
>>/44869/
> Basically says there's a paradox in US treatment of Afghanistan, they allow to send aid, while embargoing the country at the same time.

something is broken inside the usg
they have been doing such apparently contradictory things a lot this year, like inviting china for the alaska diplomatic meeting and receiving them with the announcement of more economic sanctions
the same with russia, biden calls putin during a period of cold relations, they talk it up in the media as a step in thawing the relationship and the next day another department announces more economic sanctions against nordstream 2 companies and sovereign bonds of i don't remember what russian national fund
pretty bizarre
i don't know, it's like there are a bunch of government groups that don't talk to each other or something
>>/44887/
> the same with russia, biden calls putin during a period of cold relations, they talk it up in the media as a step in thawing the relationship and the next day another department announces more economic sanctions against nordstream 2 

It is just realpolitik. US basically allowed NS2 to build, lifting all real sanctions. New sanctions are joke, they are used to have some political continuity in eyes of commoner, i.e. "look, we still against it". There must be some action from Russian side as part of deal, but we don't know terms. It is hard to imagine that US would easily allow that project without requiring some profit to itself.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/6/taliban-claims-complete-capture-of-panjshir-valley-live
Probably fighting is still going on, but for now the Taliban has the upper hand, they already claimed victory - which could be early propaganda maneuver, and might prove false.
The whereabouts of Massoud, the leader of the NRF (National Resistance Front, the holdouts in Panjshir), is unkown. Earlier they said they surrounded some hundreds of Taliban soldier. Massoud also called for national uprising and before that declared he is ready for peace talk and settle. Not entirely sure what the NRF want, I read about inclusive government (include all ethnicities), and semi-autonomy for Panjshir. Maybe neither, maybe both, maybe some other stuff are their goals.
Taliban is also chasing ISIS, arresting peeps.
New talks with Germany about aid and investment.
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>>/44932/
From what I gather they raised the flag in the capital (near the entrance to the valley) and called it a day.
They do control all provincial capitals now, I guess...

> Ahmad Massoud has released a 19 minute audio in which he confirms bombardment by Pakistan & Taliban in Panjshir which killed Fahim and many of Massoud’s family members. He asks Afghans to protest against Taliban. Resistance won’t stop. Asks international community for support. While expressing condolences to the martyrs in Panjshir, Ahmad Massoud says that Pakistan directly attacked Afghans in Panjshir and international community watched silently. Massoud says he won’t give up until his last drop of blood. Says, Taliban savages attacking with Pak help. Massoud: Taliban proved they haven’t changed. Talibs are not Afghans, they are outsiders and work for outsiders, and want to keep Afghanistan isolated from the rest of the world. All Afghans should join the resistance in any form or way possible. Resistance is still alive.
https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1434819091827544074

> TB flag raised in Panjshir center. Panjsher is fully under of TB
https://twitter.com/babrak__/status/1434737256959520772
>>/44933/
> they raised the flag in the capital (near the entrance to the valley) and called it a day.
The Taliban is pressed to show they are in control and form a government. They can employ the Soviet and USian strategy to hold the important settlements, let the guerillas hide in the mountains and pretend towards the world that everything is all right, while they try to root out the resistance.
Not having perfect peace there isn't a big deal (for now), what they need is a stronger voice in the foreign media than NRF.
> Pakistan & Taliban
> Pakistan directly attacked
Getting foreign help also one step closer to recognition for the Taliban.

Also it would be interesting to see how the fights are going. Both sides are familiar (experts) of that type of warfare.
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...in Guinea
The events a bit blurry, not sure the actual sequence, but...
On Sunday (Sept 5th), news appeared of a military rebellion east of Conakry, the capital of Guinea, Kaloum - the part of town where the presidential palace and most of the ministries are located - was sealed off. Heavy gunfire could be heard.
On state tv, colonel Mamadi Doumbouya appeared, the leader of the special forces and he addressed the nation in his speech. He told the viewers, it's time to unite, end the government mismanagement, the poverty and the corruption; he said as a soldier it's their duty to save the country, and they'll no longer entrust it to one man but to the people. The whole appearance gave the impression of a putsch.
Apparently they arrested President Alpha Conde, promised to change the politics, and introduced nationwide curfew. Today they lifted the curfew in mining areas, but barred the officials from leaving the country.
As of now other branches of the army are silent.

Conde was elected in 2010 as President during the first democratic election of the country, then re-elected in 2015. Originally a two-term limit was in effect, but in March last year, they changed the constitution that a president can serve three terms. Then in October Conde was re-elected the third time.
Since then protests were going on, the demonstrators clashed with security forces, dozens died, hundreds were arrested, opposition leaders as well.
Guinea isn't in a bad situation economically. She's rich in iron ore, gold, diamond, and has the world's largest reserves of bauxite. This ensured economic growth but as usual in African countries, the wealth does not trickle down, poverty and corruption goes hand in hand.
>>/44933/
> indian

> accusing pakis

> "talibs are not afghans"

> shilling for muh "resistance"

lmao do you even geopolitics
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>>/44937/
The situation and script resembles to the recent Mali coup, where a questionable election was followed by civilian discontent and culminated in a coup done by officers (whom appeared in the media addressing the nation and the world), claiming to reform the political system and end the corruption of the previous regime.
Similarly the international reaction was the same: condemnation of the coup, demands to release the President and return to constitutional practices, and finally and most importantly: doing largely nothing.
Doumbouya's speech (well, what they wrote on Al Jazeera and translated from his telly appearance) has a couple of noteworthy points. First as they pointed out the reasons of their actions, the corruption of the leading politicians and the system. Their basis of the actions is the duty they were entrusted with. They also show themselves as committed to three values: unity, patriotism, and democracy.

I wonder what happened since then in Mali, if the coupists done what they promised - reshuffling the political deck and hold a new election -, or went on in a different direction, because what will happen in Guinea, it will follow similar path to Mali's, as it did up till now.
>>/44937/
Forgot links.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/5/heavy-gunfire-heard-in-guinea-capital-conakry-witnesses
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/6/guinea-coup-military-arrest-president-dissolve-government
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The Taliban announced the new (caretakes) government and named several ministers, whom are all Taliban. It is not known if this cabinet will include non-Talibans yet.
The PM is Mohammad Hasan Akhund. He is the chief of the Taliban leadership council, for 20 years now, the Rehbari Shura, he is a founder of the movement, and the Emir since 2016. During the previous rule of the Taliban he served as foreign minister and deputy PM. Now he unifies the position of the head of state and the head of government.

Other names can be found here for example:
https://www.paktribune.com/news-details/mullah-mohammad-hasan-akhund-nominated-as-new-afghan-head
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/7/taliban-announce-acting-ministers-of-new-government
https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/who-is-mullah-mohammad-hasan-akhund-all-you-need-to-know-about-head-of-talibans-acting-govt
>>/44942/
Wait.
This guy is the Emir: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibatullah_Akhundzada
I think I made a mistake, the Mullah title of Mohammad Hasan Akhund confused me I think. Even the second photo shows Hibatullah Akhundzada. Weird because this guy's pops is called Muhammad Akhund.
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Made a screenshot of nothing really happening.
Some bug hunt with attack planes against Islamic State ants in the desert. I'm sure it's very cost effective. But who knows.
Another thing I "really should": update meself on Mali, apparently things are habbening there.
So tensions grow with France. The civil war thingy is going on 8 years now, France unable (or lacks the will) to clench it. After the coup of August 2020 they even withdrew some troops. The interim government of Mali engaged in talks with that Russian private ("private"?) mercenary group, the Wagner, which we knew from Syria. They also received military supplies from Russia. This France did not like, and told Mali they should fight their own fight and don't rely on France. I'm sure this will prevent them seeking help elsewhere... Anyway now Mali also told France they do not approve to the tone Macron used.
Btw. This year in May another coup was done. Colonel Assimi Goita decided he's got enough of the bs of the first civilian interim government and put them aside, and now he installed a second one it seems.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/6/mali-summons-french-ambassador-over-macrons-criticism
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/1/mali-receives-helicopters-weapons-from-russia

I think chief problem is if Western powers aren't willing or able to defend their... "subjects", others who have better track records against ISIS and such will be invited and step in. Then Western govts can throw hissy fits, it will be their fault.
Apparently it's not the first time Russia helps out in Mali. Here's an article from late 2019 (in Portuguese):
https://orbisdefense.com/mercenarios-dowagner-group-presentes-no-mali/
>>/45189/
Wagner are also operating in the Central African Republic and they were or are Operating in Mozambique and Sudan. I think that it's actually a fairly effective, low cost and low accountability method of projecting power. The problem with traditional military interventions is that they of course cost so much and if anybody is killed the operation can start to be scrutinised in the home country but Mercenaries don't require any of the expensive logistics and support of a traditional army and if they die well they were not part of the military they are just citizens doing their own thing of their own volition. Maybe France should establish such a mercenary force.

Interestingly Rwanda has also been sending armed forces around Africa to put down militant groups as well, they are on track to become a superpower before India and Brazil at this point.
>>/45190/
Yeah, I noticed Wagner is at many places, I think wherever ISIS is or similar, they have a force operating there.
> Maybe France should establish such a mercenary force.
Originally the Foreign Legion was that. Noone cared about if those died. Even now they get the most exposed places, but it's different times now.
> Rwanda
Supposedly the various cooperations of African states have peacekeeping forces, some countries are more active than others.
> they are on track to become a superpower before India and Brazil at this point.
Tell me more. What's up with Rwanda?
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Tension intensifies between Mali and France. Mali PM uses harsh words criticizing their post-colonial overlord, I assume to place pressure on France to keep (more) troops there. (This article uses RT as a source much. Which means rock solid proofs ofc, no bias.)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/8/mali-accuses-france-of-training-terrorists-in-country

Some back and forth between the leading politicians of the two countries. Macron really can summarize the essence.
>>/45191/
> What's up with Rwanda?
It's been the Prussia of Africa for a few decades, famous for military exploits in the Congo such as this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Kitona
>>/45240/
Sounds like a coup attempt from the outside.
> DR Congo
Always reminds me of Dr Alban.
The Franco-Malian spat continues.
If France do not send more help, Mali needs to negotiate with Al Qaeda, at least.
> Another HCI official said no talks had yet taken place.
For now it sounds like another tool to pressure France. It tries to show Mali has other options. They even have precedent to back it up:
> The HCI mediated talks in central Mali’s Niono Circle area – quietly backed by national authorities – that led to a peace deal in March between JNIM fighters and traditional hunters that oppose them.
HCI = High Islamic Council; created in 2002, to coordinate, mediate between religious groups, it seems.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/19/mali-asks-islamic-body-to-open-negotiations-with-al-qaeda
>>/45347/
The govt. of Mali denied they entrusted anyone to go and negotiate. Essentially the previous article said, that nothing happened yet, but they felt the need to make an official statement, after they heard about the news from the media. I assume their local media. I can't really go and check that out because it's all French to me.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/22/mali-denies-asking-islamic-body-to-negotiate-with-al-qaeda
>>/45347/
> If France do not send more help, Mali needs to negotiate with Al Qaeda, at least.

I feel liek that's the plan France has for the long term. Wear Mali out internally so they get a even worse owner and then they intervene and present themselves as "saviours" or something
>>/45360/
> I'm showing as a bong now

r8
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In 2019 April Omar Al-Bashir, who was the leader of Sudan for three decades, was removed by a coup d'etat. In the following month a military-civilian joint government took over, with the promise of an election in 2023. Abdalla Hamdok became the PM (who served in various positions in the bureaucracy, was a minister too).
Now the military faction took the civilian leaders into custody (including Hamdok), monopolizing the power for themselves. There were some protests demanding each side to take over, essentially.
Additional information:
- before Al-Bashir was deposed by the armed forces, protesters also demanded them doing something.
- in September a coup attempt was done by the military, they just botched it
- internationally the coup was condemned and everyone expressed their deepest concern as usual

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/25/timeline-sudan-since-the-fall-of-omar-al-bashir
>>/45393/
Oh, the coup happened today.
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Another detail about Mali.
In the Sahel region hereditary slavery (descent-based or caste-based slavery as they call it) is still alive and kicking. The French abolished the practice of slavery on their colonies, but they were lenient about domestic slavery, and after they left, while most states around enacted laws against the practice, Mali did not.
At certain regions the society is divided by birth to noble and slave caste (the slave status is inherited via the mother), and nobles enjoy full rights and privileges, while slaves have to live among certain restrictions (like can't marry outside their caste, can't own land, they have to prepare meals for the nobles, etc.), they also often get beaten and humiliated publicly. Sometimes they even get murdered.
It's a socially accepted norm by some hundreds of thousands of people, the nobles even say it's voluntarily. Since who doesn't want to be a slave he can move, they don't tied to the land, but I can see how those people who knows nothing father than the border of their village have a hard time to leave everything behind. They even use ostracism, and banishment as a form of punishment!
But many tens of thousands of people are against the practice, and I assume as they raise awareness, the more supporters they get. And the question is raised in international media, and in the UN too.
One thing the question is interesting related to the conflict: the oppressed and discontent masses are easily influenced by radical ideas, and are prime recruiting materials of groups like Al Qaeda.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/29/slavery-is-alive-in-mali-and-continues-to-wreak-havoc-on-lives
https://observers.france24.com/en/20190924-video-malian-man-tied-public-opposing-traditional-slavery
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Anyone following the Tigray War? Last time it was on the news the government lost Dessie and it keeps losing more and more. It'd still take a while for the Tigrayans and Oromo to reach the capital, though, unless there's a sudden collapse as in Afghanistan. Tigrayans are pushing south on a salient and have their left and right flanks exposed. The left flank, towards Afar, seems irrelevant because of topography and low population density, but the right flank faces the Amhara and an offensive against the salient could be dangerous. There's also the possibility of a new Eritrean offensive against the Tigrayan heartland; that depends on the politics of Eritrean involvement. Also notable is that land connection between the capital and the Amhara heartland is apparently cut off by Oromo insurgents. From their performance at war and in the past decades, the Tigrayans seem to have the most disciplined troops and most cohesive home front.

I'm really wondering about the geopolitics of this war. It seems Egypt and Sudan oppose the Ethiopian government.
>>/45661/
> Anyone following... ?
Nod really, but I see it mentioned on Al Jazeera, I could familiarize meself with the situation.
It is a difficult terrain for sure, favouring defence. Following the roads is mandatory, those were established along the routes that are passable in the first place.
Sudan and Egypt has its own problems, especially Sudan, I believe Egypt is more calm. But they could be bridges for foreign support to arrive in various forms.
Hmm. What I don't understand how the Tigrayans could dominated the 1991-2018 era. 5% of the population, from a semi-arid area.
And even know their army provides results.
>>/45661/
I was following a bit on twitter but can't really keep up with everything tbh

this guy runs a map & compiles a tweet feed, decent info imo

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&hl=en
Right now I think the answer for this >>/45664/ is: economical factors. I have to look it up.

Also I'm really curious how a battle looks like there.

More also. If I understand correctly this conflict had two phases for now. In the first, the Tigrayans (who are not just Tigrayans but other folks, I think I'm gonna use the designation as the people who live in that region, regardless of ethnicity) were pummeled, and they conducted guerilla warfare, and the second when they gathered enough strength to step onto the battle field, forced out the govt. troops, and initiated their own offensive.
In short:
1. asymmetrical phase
2. conventional phase
These ofc can be divided further.

From the top of my head three conflicts with similar characteristics:
The campaigns against Scotland by Longshanks, the story of William Wallace, and Bruce and all that.
The Napoleonic War in Iberia, locals fighting as guerillas then Wellington arrived.
Vietnam has parallels with the Cong and the NVA both engaging with South and their allies.
>>/45675/
Tigrayans also have a tradition of doing that - btfoing everyone.
This is their third Woyane already.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woyane_rebellion
>>/45679/
Apparently they also are the kernel of the Ethiopian statehood. Tigray and Eritrea should be one country.
>>/45691/
> Tigray and Eritrea should be one country.
Eh, they have a pretty long separate history – Medri Bahri was established as one of the successor states, north of Mareb river, after dissolution of kingdom of Axum, & remained a separate state (apart for a short period when it was joined to the rest under Zara Yaqob) all the way until late 19th century (and soon later it was conquered by the Italians again to be separate until end of WW2)
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Scratched the topic of what kinda forces are participating in the battles of Ethiopia's Tigray War, the magnitude of the fighting.
On eritreahub.org I found such snippets as:
February 11-15, 2021 [...] Ethiopia’s 11th division was “destroyed” and the 32nd division was “annihilated”.
June 17-19, 2021 [...] In one battle, 3,700 soldiers of the Ethiopian army’s 11th division engaged the rebels and after three days of fighting, 100 soldiers had been killed and 900 captured, including the government troops’ commanding officer.
June 28, 2021 [...] Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation of Boston, said that of 20 Ethiopian federal army divisions, “seven have been completely destroyed, three are in a shambles”.
A former head of the INSA, Ethiopia’s intelligence agency, said two thirds of Ethiopia’s forces, amounting to around seven divisions, had been killed, wounded or captured within one week of the start of “Operation Alula”.
July 16, 2021 [...] Three Ethiopian regions sent soldiers to reinforce the national military and Amhara’s troops in their fight against the Tigrayan rebels
July 19-23, 2021 [...] it was reported that the Ethiopian 23rd division had been destroyed, while the operational commander of the Ethiopian military’s Eastern Command, Colonel Awel Yassin, had been captured

Also it seems the participants has regular troops, and militias.
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>>/45672/
From that feed it seems the Ethiopian government is recovering. In the Afar front a Tigrayan offensive was beaten back, it's relevant because of the road junction to Djibouti but I doubt the federal forces can attack from Afar into occupied Amhara territory, the topography is against them. Of greater concern is the attack on the salient from the west, which can threaten the entire Tigrayan offensive.

Checking up on Yemen:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1k_5mC2oHM9Lj4I5irFA0pkXbqKQ&ll=13.220864820229021%2C49.27975627810735&z=6

https://insidearabia.com/is-there-hope-left-for-the-beleaguered-yemeni-government/
> As Houthi power has been growing since 2015, the UN-recognized Yemeni government has become increasingly fragile. The recent loss of additional territory to the Houthis, mass protests in Taiz, Aden, and Hadramout, and the falling currency in government-controlled provinces have dealt it a triple blow.

So nothing really new.
>>/45738/
Two or three roads that lead into Tigray controlled area from Afar. Those could be easily closed down. I dunno if they have any reason to go into Afar, their target should be Addis Abeba. But in the place of Tigrayans I wouldn't rely on static defense towards them, but would try to move forward, and build up defensive positions behind as the front progress forward. So I would continuously put some pressure there, which would also occupy enemy forces, tie them down, and don't allow to regroup them on the front towards the capital.

> Yemen
Last time I heard Saudis lost space and control. Or something like that.
Govt. troops recovered two towns from Tigrayan forces.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/6/ethiopia-recapture-dessie-kombolcha-tigrayan-rebels
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/8/ethiopias-pm-abiy-to-return-to-addis-ababa-from-war-front
> Operation for National Unity in Diversity
I like how they roll.

Btw, here's short heda neger for template in case someone wants to make more. I dunno why it did not gain more attention, and status.
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>>/45797/
> Btw, here's short heda neger for template in case someone wants to make more. I dunno why it did not gain more attention, and status.

Mayb thin out the outer lines a lil bit and make the eyes a lil bigger. Image macros usually have really good line weight in them that's how they get shared better and inadvertadly get posted on reddit and facebook after they stop being funny or good. Such is the cycle of meme life
>>/45800/
Liek, apu is a gud example of what Im trying to say.
This is the "Syria thread" but I think no one mentioned that Izrael is basically waging a one-sided war against them. Almost every week they bomb positions in Syria, which can't respond. They do this usually by shooting missiles from around the Syrian border, after having invaded Lebanese airspace, which can't respond either. IIRC they are technically in a state of war because a peace treaty was not signed since the Golan territories in Syria were annexed by Izrael. However, the jews say that their attacks (which they spell "defence") are aimed at Hezbollah and Iranian militias in Syria (which indeed are or have been around and have been helping the govt fight back rebels), and pretend that that somehow excuses or justify their actions.

In the latest case they bombed some containers in a Syrian port, which allegedly contained weapons/munitions shipped from Iran. About a week earlier some of their missiles killed or injured ~15 syrians, 3 of which civilians.

(I thought this site had died about a month ago. It just the onion that was down?)
>>/45827/
It's more liek a current conflicts all around the globe/third world thread, but I see your point.
I think we noted at least on one occasion Israel combat plane fly-ins. But as you said it's quite common for them to shoot shit inside Syria, just like any other armed activity that's going about, from shelling south Idlib by SAA, or Turkish attacks on YPG.
If you wish, feel free to collect a couple of notable occasions, similarly to what you mentioned. I would be curious of their real impact on... well, anything. I suspect that's what really hard to peel out of the news.
>>/45827/
> (I thought this site had died about a month ago. It just the onion that was down?)
I think onion was down for a bit, and were occasional outages for the whole site. But nothing that lasted long (I think longest was a couple of hours downtime).
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What I find notable in the government recapture of Dessie is the offensive coming from Afar. I never expected anything from that direction as the topography is easy to defend. Tigrayan commanders must've made a major blunder. Or perhaps they're just overstretched, the government has comparatively limitless manpower after all. It won't be long until Tigray itself is once again in danger. Even if Tigrayans hold off the government, they won't be able to afford conventional attrition warfare.

>>/45827/
It happens so regularly and for so long that I've never bothered to post about it here.
>>/45875/
They have much more manpower but new troops are green troops.
Maybe different regions, different ethnicities could be turned on each other, or just turn off the support from them. And Tigrayans can count on other groups supporting them, like the Oromos.
Also foreign influence (which I don't know about) can keep the war going, or closing it quick, depending on interests.
Perhaps important to point out: Ethiopian army has drones.
https://eurasiantimes.com/chinese-wing-loong-2-turkish-bayraktar-tb2-drones-proving-to-be-a-game-changer-in-ethiopian-civil-war/
(Erdogan has been bragging about selling drones in Africa recently as well)
>>/45890/
> Wing Loong drones

Sounds like that BBC pidgin news. Fits African warfare very well.
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They bombed a Syrian port again. Actually, I think it was the same as this >>/45827/
"Material losses" reported, several containers or depots destroyed
>>/45990/
Yeah, they struck Latakia.
https://syrianews.cc/israel-bombs-latakia-port-for-the-second-time-this-month-war-crime/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/28/israeli-air-raid-targets-syrian-port-of-latakia-state-media
With the previously mentioned Russian Equipment came Russian troops to train the Malians to use that equipment. And maybe do more. It is unknown how are there and what other tasks they have. French withdraw from Timbuktu and the Russians deployed there. Well there ain't many places this stuff can be done. I checked couple others sites, it seems like AlJazeera they work from Reuters.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/7/russian-troops-deploy-to-malis-timbuktu-after-french-exit
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>>/46072/
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>>/46072/
> Russian troops

Al Jazeera uses term "Russian troops" very liberally, so reader may think that there are real Russian Army or at least some official entity. But looks like it is just a mercenary group, who is even less related to official Russian state than Blackwater (or how it is called now) to USA. 

These guys are completely illegal in Russia in terms of law, because being mercenary in Russia is a crime. But of course these mercenaries aren't mercenaries, and they don't even exist, we all know it.

> what other tasks they have

Foreigners are better in such conflicts because they more loyal than locals who always have interests in country. Foreigners also don't care about local population, so may do anything that locals wouldn't. So, I guess tasks are mostly about security of local leaders and small special operations.
>>/46078/
> Al Jazeera uses term "Russian troops" very liberally, so reader may think that there are real Russian Army or at least some official entity. 
It seems they follow Reuters narration. When they refers to source as "news agency" they mean Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/mali-security-russia-idAFL8N2TM47J
I still think the govt. of Mali (or whoever is in control now, colonel Goita) also profits from dress the situation as some kind of diplomatic courtship on behalf of Russia. They might try to show they have options besides the French to defend the country.
> But of course these mercenaries aren't mercenaries, and they don't even exist, we all know it.
And ofc they aren't in Russia. In Mali it's perfectly legal.
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>>/46086/
> And ofc they aren't in Russia. In Mali it's perfectly legal.

Technically country doesn't matter - if someone would engage in mercenary activity and this will be found in Russia, he will be jailed. It requires police investigation and criminal trial. Although everyone understand what happens of course and there will be no trials.

> I still think the govt. of Mali (or whoever is in control now, colonel Goita) also profits from dress the situation as some kind of diplomatic courtship on behalf of Russia. They might try to show they have options besides the French to defend the country.

It is good for every party except French. This is their own fault though, why do they leave?
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So as I mentioned this >>/46100/ website published many articles worthy of interest. There are two about Syrian war, one from 2020 and another from 2021.

The first one is notable for two reasons. While most of the stuff there are commonly discussed on imageboards (here too), the author points out on the geopolitical side of the issue, that Syria is the last country in the Mediterranean that not under the influence of the NATO/US. And we know from elsewhere the importance of the region in Anglo global domination and imperialism. The other thing is the role of Western "NATO-compliant" media, and the luck that telecommunication services in our day and age can provide with counterbalance.
It is also nice to see some links to documentaries towards the bottom of the page.
The second article gives more details.
I've yet to check the sources the author worked from, but I see quite various stuff.
Well, his is an opinion too, Bernd can decide.

https://swprs.org/the-syria-deception/
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Syria got a bit of snow. Newspapers publishing articles how refugees suffer and at least one child died due to the snowstorm. I wonder if it was for the snowstorm, or during it. What is the mortality rate of kids in refugee camps? Or in Syria in general?
Couple more photos:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/20/internally-displaced-syrians-suffer-harsh-winter-conditions

Also in Norway diplomats of various leading countries (US, UK, several EU members) is having a sitdown with the Taliban. Not because they acknowledge their legitimacy ofc. But it is a clear acknowledgement who holds the power, and they can't do shit about it. Diplomatic forked tongues.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/21/taliban-to-hold-meeting-in-norway-next-week
>>/46177/
Snow in the middle east? Never seen that
>>/46180/
It's not the most prominent feature but happens, even in the south towards Jordan, there's a mountain that gets snow. I think in the northwest where the camp is supposedly located these articles talk about should be somewhere on the southern legs of the slopes leading up to the ranges in Anatolia.
>>/46088/
> This is their own fault though, why do they leave?
Exactly.
But maybe they see that they don't lose much influence in Mali anyway. I dunno.

Apparently it is legal here to form private mercenary outfit.
https://index.hu/belfold/2022/01/22/maganhadsereg-bagjos-richard-pmc/
According to the article they are looking for recruits with "professional past" as policeman and prison guards... No soldier profession is mentioned. For now about a thousand men expressed their interest, the offered wage is $3-5000, the employing company is a private security company based "somewhere in the emirates". Besides gunners they are looking for medics, firefighters, IT and telecommunication professionals, translators, drivers, and two "online support" guys.
They're gonna get training first, and their name will be Falcons Forces.
I'm not sure why this thing was published in the papers, maybe it's a marketing technique?
>>/46088/
> why do they leave?

I only read a little about it but: Mali is ex-colony, so there is some historical animosity regarding that; there has been rebel or terrorist groups in the country and there still is; Mali says that France did not help as much as it could, instead being more interested in ensuring a continued foothold in the country; current Mali govt is not Wect-approved democracy, actually it is a military govt; the mali military agreed previously to give way to a new govt after a certain period, but when the deadline was drawing closer they changed their minds and argued that legitimate elections could still not be held because parts of the country remain in control of rebels and the country should be stabilized first; france saw this as an opportunity to get a regime change by playing the "democracy vs. dictatorship" card; thus, together with the US they promoted and supported a resolution by a group of african countries called in english "ECOWAS" that imposed a pretty brutal economic and financial embargo on Mali; that soured relations all the more
Later Russia and China opposed such "sanctioning", which are often aimed at them, and blocked a proposal by the "western partners" to have the UNSC support the embargo too
I suppose this might also be a part of the general geostrategic economic pressure on china because I believe ethiopia, also at war, but not under a military govt., and where china has an important part of its african investments, was also pressured by ecowas (besides the us)
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>>/46148/
Thanks. Most of this I already understood but it is a nice short summary and interesting-looking links for my reading backlog
Interesting articles about the booomer-remover too

About that drawing: it could use a third panel with "mujahideen in afghanistan :heart: :heart: :love freedom fighter:", pic related (compare it with 2020's theatrics and hyperventilations stemming from the anti-Trump anti-Russian propaganda about Afghan "bounties", pic related)
>>/46203/
I think that was a rhetorical.

Mali isn't just an ex-colony, but it's in Francafrique. They'll never get rid of the French. Goita will be long gone the French still will be there. They don't really withdraw they just left Timbuktu empty to do whatever. Actually I think Timbuktu itself is in the region where some Tuareg militia (earlier rebel until they had a deal with the govt.) controls. Plus the presence of Al Qaeda and ISIS (in part France being responsible for their existance) guarantees that Mali will need the French in the foreseeable future, noone other has the reach to deploy there (except the various African alliances, one of them you were talking about, and the UN, btw Hungarians also get deployed in Mali now, I have to search for the article).
I think France would do something if they had someone to install instead of Goita. But all in all he isn't worse than anyone else, and no other for the job that at least had the appearance that he can hold it. And then elections need to be held, all that democratic facade. It's more comfortable and less costly to give harsh or witty statements in the media by Macron.
I read in Nigeria the Chinese has strong presence, I guess they could project their power into Mali too.
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>>/46148/
I understand their line of thought on geopolitics but have to disagree that it's not a civil war. It is simultaneously a proxy war and civil war, as external powers are playing out their moves on the divisions within Syrian society. First of all, one has to wonder why the mainstream Syrian rebels are Islamists even though they were meant to be positively portrayed. There were real "moderate Syrian rebels" but they faded into irrelevancy. If the West had enough control over the rebels, they'd seek a primarily PR-friendly secular uprising. Having to ignore that Turkey and the Gulf states were supplying Islamists was a PR liability and doesn't make sense as an integral part of the strategy. There are two reasons it still happened: it's a lot easier to get international volunteers and funding for Islamist rebels, and the Islamists do have a power base in Syrian society, or else they wouldn't have become the mainstream lines of a long-lasting uprising.

See, for instance, East Ghouta, where the most powerful warlord was Zahran Alloush, son of a Salafist scholar and himself a Salafist religious leader who supported the Iraqi insurgents in the 2000s. He was a local and hailed from Douma, which is described as:
https://tcf.org/content/report/into-the-tunnels/
> a famously conservative city sometimes known as the City of Minarets. It is one of very few places in Syria and the wider Levant to be dominated by the Hanbali school of Sunni Islam, which predominates in Saudi Arabia, and this facilitated the spread of Salafi teachings.

But proper religious extremism is only one part of the rebellion's local base. Certainly there's also sectarianism but not theologically motivated, just plain ingroup and outgroup sentiment. And social class. Economic opportunity is concentrated in the hands of the nepotistic ruling clique and there's a lot of resentment. The war's geography does show a relation between religious demographics, socioeconomic standing and the location of loyalist and rebel strongholds. East Ghouta is a good example, as it's part of the poor suburbs which rapidly surrounded Damascus in the past decades.
> It was as if every driver of anti-regime resentment in the late Assad era had congregated on the outskirts of Damascus: political frustration, religious revanchism, rural dispossession, and downward social mobility.

Poverty in the big cities can be visualized through informal housing. Comparing a map of it in Damascus (ignoring darker red, which are later housing developments during the war) with another of the early uprising, there's a strong association. This is also notable in Aleppo's loyalist west and rebel east. There's a relationship between military control and political sentiment in an area. Although local populations lost faith in the rebels as time went on, the uprising was launched from the strongholds of anti-government sentiment and found support from them. This is why it was still a civil war.
>>/46205/
> They don't really withdraw they just left Timbuktu empty to do whatever.

True, I should have started by saying that in fact they didn't really leave. They just vacated a few of their military bases

Meanwhile, the military of Burkina Faso (Mali's neighbour) has deposed the government citing familiar problems: incompetence in suppressing the jihadi incursions
Source on informal housing in Damascus:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197397519309464

And in Aleppo:
http://madinatuna.com/downloads/IS-Book_en.pdf
>>/46210/
> If the West had enough control over the rebels, they'd seek a primarily PR-friendly secular uprising.
> it's a lot easier to get international volunteers and funding for Islamist rebels, and the Islamists do have a power base in Syrian society
Yeah foreign powers have to work with what's available.
> sectarianism but not theologically motivated
Religious people can have other reasons to be disgruntled. Like they might live in poverty. And those in poverty can be incited to action.

>>/46230/
All the Sahel region is the playground of "jihadis", various Al Qaeda and ISIS affiliates. I wonder of other countries follow Mali's and Burkina Faso's example. A Sahel Spring. Kinda reverse of the Mediterranean events where regimes rise which more "skeptical" towards the French influence and handling of the situation.
> Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration
Similarly poetic sounding name to the Malian movement.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/28/ecowas-due-to-discuss-response-to-burkina-faso-coup
This article says:
> The coup makers in Mali and Guinea, as well as in the Central African nation of Chad, where the military took power in April 2021, have all set up transitional governments with a mixture of military officers and civilians.
So essentially now we are at 4 countries in the Sahel Spring. Or maybe Sahel Autumn (AS - Arab Spring -> SA Sahel Autumn...)
Also I see a video in that page, "What's behind the coups in West Africa?", they say that was a coup attempt in Niger too.
>>/46247/
> Religious people can have other reasons to be disgruntled. Like they might live in poverty. And those in poverty can be incited to action.
Many Sunnis probably aren't happy that the previously minor Alawites rose to a prominent position in society over the past century and would rather want that pesky outgroup to remain irrelevant. This ties into socioeconomic factors, as the poor can be mobilized against an outgroup disproportionately represented in the ruling class.
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There was anti-terror mission by US in Idlib to kill an ISIS commander
A heli was lost and there was heavy cross-fire. The objective was achieved but the situation ended with civilians dead including children and women
US claims the terrorist blew himself with a large explosive and that explosion caused the death of the civilians, but I've seen no proofs so far
>>/46378/
What's notable is that both him and Baghdadi were found on Idlibistan not far from the Turkish border.
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>>/46378/
This one?
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-ibrahim-al-quraishi-islamic-states-slain-leader-2022-02-03/
Well they casually dumped bin Laden's corpse into the ocean instead of showing it to anyone, so proofs aren't high priority I guess.

>>/46379/
That Atma camp is literally on the Turkish border. It makes sense targeting them there, no need to reach far from secure area. I bet they botched the mission big time. Or maybe killing the bloke wasn't even the mission, just turned out to be after the fact.
>>/46380/
Oh I posted the other screenshot because it's mildly interesting.
>>/46379/
Are you suggesting Turkey may have been involved? In sheltering the man or in disclosing his location to the US, or both?
>>/46380/
Yes. Now another happening: 2 attacks by Israel, one using the typical "invade lebanese airspace and fire missiles from there" modus operandi and the second using surface-launched missiles from around the occupied Golan regions. One of the attacks was announced as a retaliation against a syrian missile supposedly exploding over izrael's airspace (don't know if intercepted or not)
Syrian defenses managed to intercept a few but still 1 dead, 5 injured, and material damages (apparently they targeted AA defenses)
BTW, I read a Turkish media saying that the jews complained to russia that their EW was allegedly interfering with some GPS-related signals near their airspace. Supposedly this came after russia moved or re-activated some jamming defenses to cover a region near the recently twice-attacked Latakia port
>>/46390/
> Are you suggesting Turkey may have been involved? In sheltering the man or in disclosing his location to the US, or both?
I have no clue, there are several possibilities.
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France ends Operation Barkhane in Mali and pulls out the troops involved along with the EU Takuba Task Force (about 2400 + 600 men all in all). Not sure about the latter one but the French gets redeployed elsewhere in the Sahel, chiefly towards the Gulf of Guinea and in Niger where "terrorism" supposedly gained momentum - I think these involvements are also part of Barkhane, so the operation as a whole doesn't end. MINUSMA will fill some gaps (maybe they get reinforced with French troops...).
The withdrawal will be done gradually in the next half year or so.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/16/macron-set-to-announce-french-withdrawal-from-mali
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/france-allies-announce-military-withdrawal-from-mali
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/18/after-mali-exit-niger-accepts-foreign-forces-to-secure-border

>>/46390/
It's reasonable to assume that Turkish agencies/forces were involved in the action. Maybe they just came across the intel, or maybe provided a whole support structure for the operation. I doubt they were left out of the loop anyway.
This past week more izraeli surface-to-surface missiles from the direction of golan, this time targeting the area of town called zakiya, south of damascus. "Material damages"
https://magazine.zenith.me/en/politics/french-syria-expert-fabrice-balance-kurds-and-turkey
French "expert"'s notes on the situation of civilians in northeastern Syria, where he spent a month. Despite the SDF nominally being a multicultural force with a lot of Arab fighters, local Arabs and Assyrians resent the PYD-dominated rule. Furthermore, as reconstruction has been limited, there's even nostalgia for ISIS.
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It's getting close to Live maps time for Ukraine as well, maybe they will even need their own thread.

The Russians moved military convoys right up to the border in the east and even into the Chernobyl area, Radiation does not scare Russians it seems. But they do seem to be positioning for a pincer to strike at Kiev which makes sense. I don't hold much hope for the Ukrainians, their equipment is too old particularly in regards to air and anti air, they were given western manpads but I don't know how much that will help. The fighting is practically going to be a textbook Russian excersise, it's exactly what they train for and what they want, large scale artillery barrages and air attacks on Ukrainian positions and then large scale mechanised and armoured manoeuvrers across open terrain and because of the aged Ukrainian assets they might struggle to deal with Russian air attacks on their own mechanised and armoured units which will also be operating in open country. So I think this will depend on how well entrenched the Ukrainians can get and also how much fighting will happen in built up areas, the Russians may struggle in close urban combat, indeed we have seen them struggle with it in the past. But in a war like this Russia may decide to simply cut any build up area off and move on, I don't know that they physically need to take Kiev or any other major city, so long as they can destroy enough of the Ukrainian army to enable them to operate in the countryside freely and occupy the majority of it, they should not need to actually fight for any major cities. Depending on what their objective actually is of course. These are just my thoughts anyway.
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Putin recognized the independence of the two republics on the Donbas. I think they also moved troops in there but I have to follow this up, but would make sense. If Russia say those aren't Ukraine and they asked for help, then sending units isn't an attack against the Ukraine...
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Yeah, they're sending troops too into the  freshly recognized Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. They made a mutual help agreement which allows Russian troops in (and separatist troops into Russia), also they recognize each other's offical documents, and Russia will keep afloat the financial system of those (people's) republics.
As a response Germany halted the process around the Nord Stream 2. That will show it. Supposedly gas covers the third of Germany's energy needs, half of that is Russian. To make this own goal shows how impotent Germany (and the west) is in the situation. Besides I'm sure those green energy lobbists who stuffs the pockets of German politicians will get some fat projects from the state so they can boost energy production with their solutions.
Meanwhile oil prices crawl further up. Maybe Russia can lose on the sanctions, but they're gonna get moar for their oil and gas.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/us-warns-of-possible-targeted-killings-by-russia-live-news
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/highlights-of-russian-president-putins-speech
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/22/germany-halts-certification-of-nord-stream-2-amid-russia-ukraine-crisis.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/21/oil-jumps-as-tensions-mount-over-ukraine

I still believe no armed conflict will arise between Russia and Ukraine. But after Russian troops get comfy in these new countries, they're gonna hold referendums about joining Russia, with ~90% "Yes, Of Course!", and Russia will get away with it like she did with Crimea.
In Hungarian news I read some exbert saying Russia will take the whole southern coast, with Odessa as the main target. I'm sure that would be a theoretical goal, but Russia could not do that without the backing of local population, and through an actual open war.
Anyway West will remain very concerned, but impotent in general. I find it likely that they don't even wanna do anything. What are those regions mean to them? Nothing. They are fine with their political maneuverings and stuffing their giant corpos.
Now supposedly the whole EU sanctions Russia. I'm not sure how this effects our dealings with Russia and our gas supplies. We buy it on reduced price so the hike in oil prices (and with that the gas) won't have that much effect, but can we still buy it? We also have some agreement on exporting goods to them.
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Found this on CNN in this thread:
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-22-22/index.html
I really hate this format because when they are done these short articles cannot be found anymore. Must serve a purpose ofc...

>>/46534/
> maybe they will even need their own thread.
I think it's fine here, this thread is for 3rd world shithole conflicts... :^)
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Here's map because why not.
Listening Biden's talking right now.
He just said he will go further than 2014 sanctions, and if Russia continues he will go further.
As promised they cut the business with banks. They sanction persons too.
Nord Stream 2 will not move further on behalf of Germany.
US will support Ukraine, and reinforce NATO allies.
They have no intention to fight Russia.

That lady who "speaks" the signlanguage  for the deaf looks badass tho. She should be POTUS. I guess she has to be expressive with mimics too.
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Oh wow, they told Ukrainian Foreign Minister that they won't actually help. Not that he did not know.
>>/46551/
> They have no intention to fight Russia.
Which is why the latest "Ukrainian attacks" are probably false flags or random noise. The Ukrainians are not that stupid, they'd only push for a war right now if they had a guarantee of Western military participation. Only if they happened without the Russian military in a ready state positioned around Ukraine's flanks they could conceivably be deliberate high-level provocation.

So no war, but Putin has done something. I wonder if this was his intention from the beginning (he didn't do anything in the last war scare) or his reaction to the events that unfolded in the present crisis. Also wonder if Germany really intends to abandon their pipeline or will restart it as soon as tensions go away.
More build ups and even Hungary sent forces to the border. Suspicious...

>>/46548/
At this point I think a war is inevitable. I don't see how this situation could be resolved in a way that all parties would agree to that would avoid this, Russia is quite unlikely to back down unless major concessions are made.

Ukraine would have to acknowledge the loss of Crimea and Donbass, demilitarise and declare neutrality and NATO would have to state that it would not accept Ukraine or expand further at all. This is not going to happen and so Ukraine is going to remain a threat to Russia and Russia is going to feel that it has to do something about that.
From the news I gather that Russia either sent troops or not. I think they sent some personnel and more material support, but actual Russian army units weren't moved. It seems the Western reaction came as a response to the recognition of the separatist states, and not to a Russian military action.
I think this first step Putin tests the waters, what would the West actually do.
They have legal basis to claim the whole Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, the constitutions of the two People's Republic were written so it represents those regions as a whole. I think it would be a too large step to move for them, that would mean actual war between Russia and the Ukraine, if it would come to that Russia would do further steps which she will do anyway I believe, first moving actual units into the area the separatists hold. They may or may not hold a referendum to join Russia depending which is preferable - acting on behalf two small and defenseless countries to gain back their lands held occupied by evil Ukraine, or acting on behalf on her own interest to get back her own lands.
For now they'll also see if the West would be willing to engage in the conflict, or they would allow them to do whatever they want with Ukraine, satisfied by their own masturbatory measures of sanctions.
It's clear that Russian leaders don't care if the country and themselves personally get sanctioned. So these won't stop them taking further steps.
I believe Putin will be satisfied by taking that area the size of Crimea for now. Maybe it's his last move he'll ever do, the rest will depend on future generations. I don't think Russian people in general would support a war. A war with unknown cost especially.

>>/46555/
> Which is why the latest "Ukrainian attacks" are probably false flags or random noise. The Ukrainians are not that stupid, they'd only push for a war right now if they had a guarantee of Western military participation. 
You're probably right. I think the Ukrainian leadership is too powerless to do anything to begin with. It could very well be however that some of the incidents are done by the decision of local troops. During WWII along the Hungarian-Romanian border in the divided Transylvania, while our armies fought the Soviet far in the east, military action was continuous, essentially they fought skirmishes all the time, initiated by either sides.

>>/46558/
> even Hungary sent forces to the border.
I did not hear about that. It could be that our border with Ukraine got reinforced, especially as it seems countries hereabout count on a wave of Ukrainian refugees, so those need to be processed.
> I don't see how this situation could be resolved in a way
It cannot be resolved. No war between global/nuclear powers, and Ukraine suffers from a power vacuum, which allowed Russia to move her foot in. Maybe one day Russia will claim the whole country. But I don't think she will in the near future. This tension is just too good for every participants to end it. Like all the things all over the globe that never gets resolved.
Here's something I'm not sure I get it right. They source it from Bloomberg.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/22/russian-oil-sells-at-deep-discount-on-ukraine-crisis
It seem to be say how the Russian oil price (the Urals at least) plummeted. But it also says compared to "regional Dated Brent benchmark". But Brent price goes up - elsewhere I found it's now ~$96. Which means this is a relative fall for the Urals. It doesn't really go down, just as the Brent goes up, it stays the same. To me it seems it's a play on words and twisting the viewpoint. They make it look like the Brent is fixed, and since there's movement, it seems the Urals goes down. So it's just the question of comparison.
No?
>>/46559/
> It cannot be resolved. No war between global/nuclear powers, and Ukraine suffers from a power vacuum, which allowed Russia to move her foot in. Maybe one day Russia will claim the whole country. But I don't think she will in the near future. This tension is just too good for every participants to end it. Like all the things all over the globe that never gets resolved.

Ukraine isn't a nuclear power and this situation is not like Syria or Yemen. The Russians cannot allow it to sit and fester. The Russians have built up a large force and put on a show of strength to threaten the west, they have also been putting out a lot of propaganda about how Ukraine is a threat, it's going to develop nukes, it's genociding Russians, it should not even exist, etc so to back down now with no real result would be a huge loss of face. Ukraine is still a threat and supporting Donetsk and Luhansk as independent nations does not change that. What it does mean however is that there is now no way of forcing a Minsk 2, that's over as is any diplomatic solution.

The problem is that if they back down or even if they move in and take Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine still exists, only now it's angry and so is the west. They are going to keep strengthening their army only now with renewed vigour and even more help from the west, we may even see a Ukraine with Patriot missiles and modern fighters. Russia has to take Ukraine out of the equation entirely and now is their best chance to do it.
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>>/46561/
> Ukraine isn't a nuclear power
>>/46558/
Found article. It says:
1. They send various troops to the eastern border.
2. They hold war games in the western part of the country, with the participation of NATO allies too.
https://index.hu/belfold/2022/02/22/benko-tibor-hadugyminiszter-honvedseg-hadero-atcsoportositas-ukrajna/
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And so it has begun. Less than an hour ago Putin announced military operations against Ukraine. Artillery has now begun striking at Ukraine, so far they have hit Mariupol, Kiev and Odessa.
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Russian war planes are staring to operate in Ukraine. It does not seem like Ukraine is reacting right now but it's still very early. Putin said he does not plan to occupy Ukraine but that he is going to give them the opportunity to vote fore their own leader. I guess he picked that up from the Americans.

I made some predictions of how I think this war will go but they are very easy predictions to make really, that does not mean I won't be wrong though.
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The first strikes where against strategic targets, things like airports. However just recently artillery has started hitting the Russian-Ukrainian border as well as the Belarus-Ukrainian border. They are going after frontline targets now.

Also regarding Belarus, the President of Belarus said that he would cooperate with Russia in the Invasion of Ukraine and integrate with their army in doing so.
Russian tanks have entered Ukraine from the north, Ukraine says it shot down 5 planes and a helicopter in Luhansk, Russia says it has destroyed Ukrainian air defence and airbases.
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They sprinkled Ukraine all over.
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Flightradar24 behaves a little wonky. Maybe too much connections, people are curious.
What I noticed that planes are jumbled up at major airports. Also Empty holes over Hungary.
The liveuamap is also shitting itself. Getting 500/520 etc errors.
>>/46567/
Ukraine doesn't seem to do much. I bet their units are huddling in the fortifications they invested their energy.
> some predictions
You need to use physical map, and know the lay of the land (centers of economy, strategic locations, etc.) to judge better.
One clear feature is the Dniepr, which divides the country into two. Major and important cities are Kiev, Kharkov, and Odessa - maybe some others.

>>/46568/
> gainst strategic targets, things like airports.
Yes it seems airports and ports got hit. Limiting the capabilities, probably trying to gain the full control of air and sea.
Ukraine has cut off diplomatic ties with Russia. RIP Ukraine the Eurosoy armies wouldn't have helped anyway.
>>/46573/
They need to wait for tomorrow when the UN will release a press statement about how they are deeply concerned.

I did incorporate the dniper! I'm mixed on what will happen in cities, I think some they will go for but others they might cut off, because cities are going to be where they suffer the most casualties. Other than that Ukraine is flat so not much matters. I maybe should have thought about roads more though. But it would not change much only slight bends in the lines they would still roughly be the same and many attacks will not follow them anyway.

> Yes it seems airports and ports got hit. Limiting the capabilities, probably trying to gain the full control of air and sea.
Yes, but I don't think it will be hard for them to control either, those are Ukraine's biggest weaknesses.

>>/46572/
Too many people trying to look at it at once most likely.

>>/46574/
Well diplomacy won't do them any good now anyway.
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They'll have to take Kharkiv because it's important for logistics.
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Nippon Banzai!
Ukraine Banzai!
Mfw it's happening
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Reposting physical map here too.

>>/46575/
They need the agreement of the UN they can defend themselves... Which will never came since Russia is security council member with veto right.
> Ukraine is flat
Yes, but for example from the north it's marshy I think, there's the Pripyat although I'm not sure it's exact extent.
>>/46578/
Good.
>>/46577/
God dammit I was tricked!!! I knew I should have checked and I am glad I did in the end.

https://soranews24.com/2022/02/18/ukrainian-ambassador-to-japan-dresses-as-samurai-in-show-of-strength-against-russia/

Russian propagandists I bet.
Listening Al Jazeera live. The Ukrainian ambassador for Qatar speaks now. He told SU was founding member of UN and not Russia. I assume he means Russia shouldn't enjoy more rights in the UN than Belarus or Ukraine.
Well, we had a peace treaty with the Soviet Union that gave Kárpátalja to them, not the Ukraine.

Boris Johnson said UK and her allies will reply decisively. They're gonna impose more sanctions...
Some updates from our Russian neighbours in ITT thread:
>>>/polru/6499/
I hope Putin invades the west next and genocides everyone, these people are too annoying.
If Biden says to you: they are ready to respond quickly and decisively, and Putin says: any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen”, which one would you believe?
>>/46585/
I'm sure Biden is going to do some shitty sanctions and what not. I doubt Putin would destroy modern civilization though, assuming he is talking about nuclear warfare.
EU talking heads talking. They condemn the attack and will impose more sanctions. Gonna block banks and freeze Russian assets and whatever.
Also as I said some time ago: this whole thing could have been prevented by allowing Ukraine into NATO.
Ukrainian journo asking Stoltenberg:
> shouldn't NATO build anti-hitler... sorry anti-putin alliance?
This part: "build anti-hitler... sorry anti-putin" is a literal quote.
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Our heroes.
Jens Stoltenberg
13th secretary general of NATO since 2014
He is a socialist (social-democrat as they call it) politician from Norway, served there as prime minister too.
> Up to 1990, he had regular contacts with a Soviet diplomat. He ended this relationship after being informed by the Norwegian Police Security Service his contact was a KGB agent, warning him of further contact. Stoltenberg's code name within the KGB was "Steklov".
From Wikipee. Hilarious.
>>/46575/
> Yes, but I don't think it will be hard for them to control either, those are Ukraine's biggest weaknesses.
So they should miss out on the opportunity? Enemy should be attacked where it's weak (attack where it's empty, says Sun Tzu). That opens up further weaknesses. Which has to be attacked.
If troops are put to the front, the back has to be targeted. If they are at the back, then the front. If they defend everywhere they'll be weak everywhere.
I hope our Ukrainian occasional poster (who probably is the same Bernd who usually attends the monthly streams) and the other Bernds are all right.
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Because no one knows what really happens, so only videos.

1,2 - Ka-52 somewhere near Kiev (shooting down/landing + results)
3 - burning possibly Russian armor near Kharkov
4 - burned down BTR-4 (UA) and Tigr (Russian jeep) somewhere.

Although there are much more in internet now.
>>/46594/
Thanks.
Yes I assume many people narrowcasting their stuff on social media. And yes the problem is it just becomes noise and can't be known what's really going on. And where.
I'm listening/half-watching Al Jazeera livestream.
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>>/46595/

Official media of both sides became mess, Russian one is relatively silent and says that everything is mostly ok except unfair treatment from evil west. Ukrainian one looks like there is apocalypse incoming, but Ukraine prevails.

So only short videos remain, but it is hard to say what happens and where. Only thing is sure - local Ukrainians are careless enough to walk openly in warzone, and it wouldn't end well.
This is how western prayer mill goes round and round now:
1. condemnation of Russia, she has no legal basis to attack
2. acknowledging the right of Ukraine to defend herself
3. EU countries stand united, NATO countries support each other
4. strengthening the NATO "eastern arm"
5. sanctions incoming

>>/46596/
It seems fights going on close to Kiev and Kharkov. Towards Kiev there was an attack through the air, with helicopters. From Kharkov there are footage of destroyed Russian armor, and some dead.
> local Ukrainians are careless enough to walk openly in warzone,
It's the result of long peace in Europe, makes people clueless, plus we are so used to see violence on telly/internet, now footage taken by average people (or people seems to be average), it we look at the screen of our phone and look the world through that as if what we see would still be on the internet. It's crazy.
On the other hand those who sit at home can be in danger just the same.
Were the helicopters transporting desant to H/Gostomel?
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Gostomel is next to Kiev, to the NW.
There's an airport at it.
>>/46598/
> Were the helicopters transporting desant to H/Gostomel?

There are speculations that special ops are deployed to quickly capture UA government, or to support that capture. Russian officials (Peskov basically) are ambiguous about war targets, only thing they say is "demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine", but it's hard to say what do they mean - occupation of some regions or regime change. Second option is possible and taking out center in Kiev is logical.

But it may be just capturing airbases to prevent UA to act.
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>>/46599/
>>/46600/
It could be that but I doubt they would try it with just SF, they would not be able to hold it(unless it's just a raid or something). But the SF maybe could secure it for the Russian airborne forces to then arrive. And if they did that they would also need to push hard along the entire front to keep them busy and stop them sending forces to annihilate the pocket.
> putin-orchestrated massive drive-by shooting
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They are making much more progress in the south than I thought they would. Fairly early on in the invasion they were pushing into the south and I didn't know what to think of it, it seems like it should be easy to defend considering they are coming from an isthmus but they were being pushed back so I thought that maybe the Ukrainians deliberately left it lightly defended because they did not want to get caught there, so they would hold the river instead. But the Russians have crossed the river as well. I don't know maybe that area in general is lightly defended and they are going to hold them back closer to the capital, or maybe they want them to cross the river and they are then going to launch a counter attack and smash them.

Also, they are fighting in Chernobyl now...
>>/46603/
I can reach the liveuamap website via Tor. So for some reason Hungary(?) is cut off from it?
>>/46604/
Properly cut off or the errors that we keep getting anyway? What did it say?

That's bizarre.
The Ukrainians have said there were 34 helicopters used in the attack on Hostomel. That's a lot really.
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Here's what Telegraph.co.uk put together.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/24/ukraine-live-map-track-russian-invasion-explosions-locations/

>>/46605/
Eh, it seems it's lottery. With my bare connection, it is always some form of 50* error. With Tor sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.
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From the same article here: >>/46607/
Comparison of forces.
Ukraine transport infrastructure.
Russian troops placement/buildup before the conflict.
+1 from Haaretz, what they gathered about the events.

Listening Zelenskyy. He seems speaking well. Translation wasn't well tho, I'm just judging his tone and speech. Well, he was actor.

What is Putin's endgame? What they try to accomplish? What is the goal?
Occupying whole Ukraine? Or eastern half? The Donbass? The seaside (from Odessa, through Kherson along the Dnieper through Mariupol to the separatists republics)? Installing a puppet? A combination of this? Something else?
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Seems ground forces captured Chernobyl.

>>/46600/
There are other airports in Kiev and one a bit further over the Dnieper.
Maybe forces went there to soften the avenue towards Kiev for ground troops.
> "demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine"
Oh yeah, this was mentioned as a goal on Al Jazeera. But I think demilitarization necessarily means some level of occupation, at least in key locations.
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Gains in the south, from Crimea towards the Dniepr. Or loss if we view it from the Ukrainian side.
Also Russian forces moved in from the east, north of Lugansk, reaching Starobilsk, and from the north east, approaching Kharkov.
So four incursions with the one from the north towards Kiev.
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> But not Hungary.
Thanks Sholz.
this shit makes me speechless. reporters say that putler is batshit insane and german politician said that putin hiding from covid for so long made him autistic.
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I'm listening Biden now. He's talking about all the monetary/economical countersteps they're gonna implement. I'm wondering how much this will bite back? Russia is part of the global economy, they are investors around the globe and clients for the globe.
Also the measures the NATO take. What a luck USA withdrawn from Afghanistan so they can redeploy in Europe. Germany too will get (more) US troops.
Biden just said "action against the global peace". When was peace on this Earth srsly?
I have the feeling the whole thing doesn't matter and already decided. We are in the pockets of such economical players we can't even comprehend.

>>/46612/
Well he definitely kept the distance form everyone.
Biden in a reply to a question of a journo started to explain something, started a bit vehemently then stopped and said - sorry I don't want to be a wiseguy... I liked this how he did it. Gonna try and get this segment of the footage. Got my sympathy for a bit.
A talking head was just saying (probably Ukrainian me thinks) that Russia probably want to take the Belarus  way with Ukraine.
He also said he is disappointed that it is clear now noone will come to help. They would welcome any material help (like war material, AA weapon systems were mentioned) even now after the last hour, but they are alone facing 2nd most "deadly" army in the world.
I wonder how Ukrainians feel and think about the situation.
Sure they wouldn't like to die that is given, and they don't want their property to be destroyed, so they don't want war.
But do they feel about different management?
Do they favor their sovereignty? Would they given up for the EU instead? Well I assume "EU - modern, democratic, and rich" vs "Russia - feudalistic, authoritarian, and poor" dichotomy it would be a no-brainer for lot of them.
How they feel about the no foreign help, do they feel abandoned? Disappointed?

I also question our future. What neighbour we get? Russia? Another Belarus type of country? How would the relation go? EU parliament had a vote about foreign relations, that the EU don't need unanimous votes for making decisions, simple majority is enough to make all EU country to follow suit. Can make this difficult in the future.
They pushed the Russians back over the Dnieper, that's one crisis averted for now, I don't know why they got that far to begin with.

To the east it looks like the Russians are encircling a town reasonably close to Kiev, they have managed to take a reasonable amount of land there but I don't think it was that well defended(thought I did see a report from that area about Javelins being used to eliminate a column of 15 tanks). They are not getting far on the Kharkiv front so far. As I see it Donbass is just a distraction so I don't care much what happens there, the Russians are going to want to put pressure on the Ukrainians to tie there forces up there but they don't need to actually take that area, they can encircle the Ukrainian forces in the area from other directions.

Hostomel airport was taken back.

The British defence ministry released a statement and part of it reads 'it is unlikely that the Russia has achieved it's planned day 1 military objectives'.

Maybe. We will see.
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>>/46617/
Forgot maps...
Russian troops stole some Ukrainian trucks and used them to drive into Kiev. What mad men.
Very busy atm so I can't follow this shitshow, but I have read a few recaps.
I have to say, despite stating that part of me (a part that I keep in check because it's not the most coldbloodedly rational) considered a forceful Minsk 2 OK, this war has surprised me as I thought it was a mistake. As I wrote somewhere, war with a closely-related neighbor clearly looked to me beneficial only to the us/nato/west. So russia embarking on that project looks to me like playing into the hand of the "western partners". I thought the deployment around ukraine was useful first to decisively deter an incursion on donbas (which would have required a response and thus the cancellation of NS2, a goal for both kiev and washington), and second in applying pressure to kiev, creating economic problems due to the risk and uncertainty, strangling western investment and thus influence, pushing them into considering concessions regarding their nato plans. I did not expect an actual war, especially after many weeks of them officially stating that they did not "intended" one.
Quite a few other surprises as well:
- Why the very quick ground operation even reaching the outskirts of cities after the air strikes if the goal is demilitarization? I suppose it could be about military targets found near cities like bases, AA systems, and command centres, but do those need a ground strike? I guess the answer is: it is not only that because just demilitarization means kiev continues on a western/nato trajectory and ns2 is lost, which means you are back at funding their anti-russia project through yamal, basically just deferring the problem at best
- I would have expected that any invasion war would be similar to a US-like operation where they only move in when they are fairly convinced that all serious defenses have been taken out by air superiority. Yet I have seen more (unconfirmed but plausible) reports of decommissioned armor, either destroyed or just abandoned, than I expected for the early hours of a conflict. If those reports are to be believed then I suppose RU strikes missed some of the drones/mines/manpads/javelins/whatever it is they are facing. Seems like they might have acted too hastily.
- Also surprised by the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition. Maybe Kiev was surprised too. Or maybe it was an "invitation" to get bogged down in suburban areas? I hope the russians haven't forgotten about Grozny
Also, I'm disappoint, son. My guess is this war will not help the cause of multipolarity much. Instead it seems more likely to accelerate another west/east split into a kind of quasi "cold war 2". US/the west will see to this through the use of economic sanctions, which are really just a limited form of economic warfare, and split the world into 2 camps: those who obey washington's economic uprightness and those that defy it. This could be potentially quite bad for fast-growing countries not yet constrained by us foreign policy, like china and india (they have good enough relations with russia), and, precisely for the same reason, be desirable by washington so as to prolong the era of global hegemony.
It's only been a day but war is tragic and even more tragic among kindred people, I'm hoping for a rapid humane conclusion. Sigh.
Something which is not a surprise: Antonov aircraft can't seem to be able to stay in the air for long. there are reports of a cargo plane crashing in russian territory somewhat near ukraine. Report says "malfunction", but I wonder
Not exactly looking like an ideal start for RU
>>/46620/
> Why the very quick ground operation even reaching the outskirts of cities after the air strikes if the goal is demilitarization?
By demilitarization they most likely mean occupying Ukraine and then disbanding the army, like what was done to Germany and Japan.  Just smashing some soviet era air defence systems would not achieve that much.

> Yet I have seen more (unconfirmed but plausible) reports of decommissioned armor, either destroyed or just abandoned, than I expected for the early hours of a conflict. If those reports are to be believed then I suppose RU strikes missed some of the drones/mines/manpads/javelins/whatever it is they are facing. Seems like they might have acted too hastily. 
Air strikes can't really target javelins and manpads. They can target SAM sites and airfields which they have though and it does seem they have taken out the Ukrainian SAMs.

> Also surprised by the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition. Maybe Kiev was surprised too. Or maybe it was an "invitation" to get bogged down in suburban areas? I hope the russians haven't forgotten about Grozny 
Air assets can hit Ukrainian armoured and mechanised formations in the open quite hard ans can the superior Russian Armour so it's probably not going to be the open country side that gives Russia trouble and that seems to be the case. They are making progress on every front but only up until they hit urban areas it seems(which is why they have not achieved much at Karkhiv at all even though it's right over the border).
Damn it, the truck lads were taken out already...
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Situation at the moment. It seems Russian desants took Gostomel, and ground troop closing in.
Moved in from the north east in Chernihiv (Chernigov?) Oblast.
Rest is about the same. We'll see how much ground they can gain.

Will Zelenskyy flee Ukraine?
What if this will turn into a long conflict?
>>/46626/
It was really the other way around. Ground forces have been in that area for most of the day. It looks like airborne units are tying the same trick but at an airport east of Kiev at Homeil.
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>>/46627/
Yesterday morning choppers flew in to Gostomel. Russian ground forces were still nowhere yesterday about 22:00 (23:00 on the Ukraine). They arrived sometimes during the night/dawn/morning.
Talked about it here: >>/46598/ >>/46599/ >>/46600/ >>/46601/
Here's on the map: >>/46607/ Antonov Airport.
Here >>/46609/ is a map from the area. Should have made a close screencap of the airport. There were some air defence fire and ground clashes (blue AA icons and blue small arms icon).
>>/46628/
Yes. And they were beaten back and the airport was recaptured. This is a new wave of attacks happening today that started on the ground.
>>/46629/
> were beaten back
Where? Back to the air?
No. The desant was put down to the ground, they couldn't take the airport by the first charge, but managed later. They don't jump back to the air, they took up position somewhere around, than push in again until they succeed. The ground troops from Belarus closed in after. Now maybe are at the airport.
>>/46630/
I don't know where they were beaten back to, maybe they were all killed or captured or pushed back into the countryside but the point is the attack field and the Uranians took the airfield back. What happened today is a separate assault and it started on the ground, you can check the logs if you want to go back that far.
Although, even now there is a log on the live map referencing the fact that yesterdays attack failed...
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Russia just said it's ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine!! What?!?!?! This can't be happening, surely this does not mean what I think it does.
>>/46633/
Talk is cheap, going to Belarus, where the soldiers invaded from is a  sure death.
Putin thinks he can put a figurehead on the top and the whole country will succumb to his wet dreams.
>>/46634/
So there would have to be a ceasefire. Sigh...
He must know Ukraine will not accept that particularly so early in the war. Either things are much worse for him than would be apparent at first glance or it's some kind of political game.
>>/46635/
> He must know Ukraine will not accept that particularly so early in the war.
Zelensky had an image of a talker guy. His electoral platform was "end the war, Poroshenko did it all wrong". He's got a coward image too. Russian propaganda goes on the narrative of "Zelensky, don't kill fellow Ukrainians, if you won't surrender, we'll kill 'em all", effectively building up the guilt and putting it on Zelensky.

However, the NATO meeting has to go now, we'll see whether the West will do the security guarantees under the Budapest memorandum or either the memorandum was a hoax for the West too.
In Syria Turkey set up observation points in Idlib area when the SAA and their Russian ally moved in there, slowing the offense down. Maybe similar could have worked. Or maybe it would have been considered as escalation. But then again, would Putin push the red button? It's a game of will, who blinks first. Right now NATO blinking rapidly.
Reinforcing eastern NATO allies also can be considered escalation. And then if Putin succeeds - depending on what this means Russia can find itself bordering NATO countries: Poland, Northern Hungary, Hungary, Romania (besides the Baltic ones).
I'm hearing that Russian cyber attacks against Ukraine could trigger Article 5 if indirectly effecting NATO countries.

>>/46632/
That's the Ukrainian narration on the event. We don't know about casualties or anything.
Troops were transported there with helicopters, they might failed to take the airport, but that was their direct objective even for those hours? Maybe they were put there, ofc attacks were made - probing defences, reconnaissance by force -, and they waited for more transports to come in and support.
>>/46617/
>>/46618/
Maybe to the east and north east Ukranians rely on the fortifications, and defense in depth. Russian units could move in but they are slowed or even halted on the defense lines.
I assume Ukrainians are willing to give up some land (defense in depth also means they let the enemy in relatively deep), so the southern expanse from Crimea could be explained for that reason. There the Dniepr is relatively close by, would make sense to rely on it.
>>/46620/
> creating economic problems due to the risk and uncertainty, strangling western investment and thus influence
This still can happen, maybe a bit differently. I wonder how the sanctions will bite back. Especially the halting of Nord Stream 2 by Germany. Will German babushkas huddling next to their improvised candle-pot stoves?
> war with a closely-related neighbor clearly looked to me beneficial only to the us/nato/west. So russia embarking on that project looks to me like playing into the hand of the "western partners"
Maybe Russian leadership thinks that Ukraine has more potential if put into use by Russian interests, and not just hovers in a limbo of "almost NATO, almost EU, but never be a member" state. Especially from the Russian point of view.
Maybe it serves many goals. Liek covid histeria can end with a bang now. Maybe the BLM riots in 2020 served similar purpose, but failed. I dunno.
> any invasion war would be similar to a US-like operation where they only move in when they are fairly convinced that all serious defenses have been taken out by air superiority.
Probably there is a large difference between attacking durkas (even Iraq) and a more similar country. My problem is this thing doesn't look like if all these forces are participating: >>/46608/ or maybe they are but actual losses seem quite low, just over hundred or so. If news can be trusted.
> the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition.
Defense in depth. They can afford to give up some land. On the border there are no places that can be fortified well, so they need to rely on fortifications after fortifications.
Al Jazeera says:
> Ukrainian military vehicles are entering the country’s capital Kyiv to defend it against approaching Russian troops, Ukraine’s interior ministry says.
Now there will be a reason to target Kiev since it will be full of military targets.
Sweden's and Finland's admission into NATO is questioned by Lavrov now. They're next to be fucked with.
>>/46640/
> let's unzip our asses for the invaders so they won't kill us
Nice attitude, tovarisch.
>>/46642/
I'm not sure what you imply there.
>>/46643/
You look like a shill.
>>/46644/
Why?
It's only like day 2 calm down, it took Germany like 4 days to conquer Holland so it would take weeks for Ukraine. Putin most definitely wants to get a favorable peace that puts Ukraine in his influence.
>>/46644/
Okay, here you go:
1. Ukraine bitched that there is no reason to strike Kiev due to no military targets there.
2. Russia/Putin bolstered about the precision strikes
3. precision strikes weren't that precise civilians got harmed.
4. Now there will be a reason to strike Kiev.
5. Precision strikes won't be more precise. Probably got less.
Result: more civilian casualties.
To be hones you are the one who sounds like shill (a Ukrainian one) because you try to accuse me that I said Ukraine shouldn't defend her capital - while I did not say that.
>>/46645/
> russian position, where is muh russian position
> ukraine would be beneficial for russia, we need to consider the point
> maybe it serves many goals, sovereignity and international law doesn't mean shit
> zelensky is responsible for the russian aggression
> defending a city is bad, cuz it will be burnt to the ground

You're basically parroting the Russian propaganda. The ugliest parts of it (law nihilism), not considering the naive ugly parts though.
>>/46648/
> russian position, where is muh russian position
> ukraine would be beneficial for russia, we need to consider the point
> maybe it serves many goals, sovereignity and international law doesn't mean shit
> zelensky is responsible for the russian aggression
Where the fuck are these?
> defending a city is bad, cuz it will be burnt to the ground
Perhaps you are a Russian shill (instead of Ukrainian) who wants Kiev burnt to the ground...
>>/46647/
> while I did not say that
Defending the capital means you get the army in here. One cannot be without the another.
>>/46648/
> maybe it serves many goals
Oh I found this line. Here: >>/46639/
If anything it was about the suspicion this whole thing is orchestrated with the knowledge and agreement of the western leaders. Just read the following sentence about the covid hysteria.

>>/46650/
Defending the capital means not letting the front get into it. If the fights on the street of a capital, that capital is fucked.
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So. Today they have moved forces into the north, they have encircled three cities east of Kiev and it looks like they might try to cut Kiev off from the west, they did send force into the Kiev itself today but they were probing forces meant to harass more than anything else, I doubt they would push into Kiev itself just yet(unless they really want to end the war fast regardless of the cost).

And they just took the bridge back in the south...

>>/46646/
Yes. Although with modern wars like this things have the potential to move much faster. Provided that one side can deal a decisive blow and annihilate the forces in their way, then they can zoom past rapidly to the rear. Or if they can manage to encircle the enemy and feel they can also spare the forces to push onwards. I wonder if this is what Russia will do in the North East.
>>/46651/
The fight was always going to reach the streets of Kiev, it's just too close to the border and the Russians have the edge in air power and armour and so can dominate in the open.
>>/46649/
> who wants Kiev burnt to the ground
Ukrainian cities and towns are being burnt to the ground _regardless_ of Ukrainian military presence. Putin's tactic is fearmongering. Your position relies on fearmongering too.

The whole position of "let's give out the capital to the Russian army and pray that they won't do no harm" mirrors Putin's propaganda and is plainly wrong. After giving up to the KGB, the ones who gave up are sent to gulags without any correlation to the perceived sins of the surrenderers. There is no mercy at the will of the KGB.

The absence of mercy is not a simple cruelty tactic, but a means to archive complete obedience (as in totalitarianism). No matter what you do, you'll get fucked, that's what they call learned helplessness, the sense of zero control over your life. And that's what leads to complete obedience, the ultimate goal of the KGB in the past, present and future.

So your fearmongering (just like Putin's propaganda) is basically helping Ukrainians achieve the first step on the way to complete helplessness - to give up their hope.

It does not even help to get one last reprievement - there is no reprievement until there are no NATO troops. It doesn't help to get any mercy too, because Putin does not believe neither in mercy nor trust.
>>/46651/
> If the fights on the street of a capital, that capital is fucked.
Plain wrong.
>>/46651/
> this whole thing is orchestrated with the knowledge and agreement of the western leaders
So, Putin got troops into Belarus since the protests took place, in the 2022's eve there was a horde near Ukrainian border, which only grew with time. Then Putin launched the invasion.

The logic would've suggested that the invasion is Putin's fault yet you blame Putin's sins on the Western leaders. Just like you blame casualties inflicted by Putin on Zelensky. That's plain shilling.
>>/46653/
It was going to end as a guerilla war. And guerilla wars are fought on the streets.
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Well it was expected not to commit all the units at once. But if just one third they can put way more weight there.

>>/46653/
Well you can say that Ukraine was always meant to be defeated by Russia then.

>>/46654/
> "let's give out the capital to the Russian army and pray that they won't do no harm"
Never said that.
How do I monger fear? You are the one who envisioned Kiev burnt to the ground.
Do you know what is plainly wrong? The idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia. Ukraine was thrown under the bus by the West (just like we were in 1956) because even they don't see a way. Rather feel safe in the NATO fortress. Even if due to some miracle the Ukrainian troops stops the Russians, the front is still on Ukraine, and they will be forced to give concessions. Putin will pretend those were the goals all along ofc, because this is how it goes: aim high, then claim a lower goal later. 
And your thinking is absolutely moves on 1 bit. You can only comprehend 0 or 1. If not supporting Ukraine then it's clearly supporting Russia. This is also horribly wrong.

>>/46655/
Yes, it is clear when enemy enters then the capital starts to really prosper. It was like that in every war.

>>/46656/
You are again very much misrepresenting what I wrote. Nice strawman you got there, thank you. I see you aren't capable of more.
>>/46657/
> a guerilla war
This is not WWII and not Afghanistan either. Ukrainian people just want peace and left alone to live their lives quietly.
>>/46658/
> Well you can say that Ukraine was always meant to be defeated by Russia then.
> i'm not the shill, that American is the shill for sure!
Guerilla wars are not the kind of wars you know.

> Never said that.
Well, you meant that.

> How do I monger fear?
What do you propose? Leaving the capital and not defending it? Giving up officially is the first step to spread the fear.

> You are the one who envisioned Kiev burnt to the ground.
Now I see you are a shill. Even when that American did not suspect you, you were desperate to prove. Even your wrongful accusations of me wanting Kiev to be burnt are spreading fear.

> Do you know what is plainly wrong? The idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia.
There is no mercy from the KGB. The opposite of defense is giving up. You're the one to suggest that the Ukrainians give up and be turned into the bloody stew not by the Russian army, but by the Russian FSB and Russian National Guard. And that way, Ukrainians won't be allowed no hope, they'll be dead for sure.
If there is no mercy and all you get while pleading for mercy is prisons, torture and death, there is only one choice left. It's called the guerilla war. And by the means of it, a lot of national movements succeeded. However, you're a Russian shill and the core value of Russian propaganda is that people as a whole have no political will. You got that talking point right implicitly stating that guerilla wars can't succeed. And a guerilla war is the most painful thing to Putin, who won't manage the Russian economy, which did collapse right before the collapse of the USSR and actually was the cause of the USSR' collapse.

So, if Putin gets a long guerilla war instead of a small victorious war over Ukraine (in favor of which you are shilling), either his whole government will collapse by itself or Putin himself will be eventually killed. A small victorious war is a main aim for Putin. Granting him what he needs means that he'll conquer the Europe eventually and then he'll fuck you over constantly.

> they will be forced to give concessions
No they won't. Russian half-destroyed economy is not the one that will last. Putin's bet is a small victorious war that will make him last a bit more on the throne. If a war's gonna long, it's a suicide situation for Putin: he will be cornered by the political opposition, common folk, oligarchs, mafia (of which he is the member) and local tribal leaders like Kadyrov. A long conflict is a death sentence to Putin. A death sentence to Putin (or a mere detainment) is the only guarantee of peace in the CIS countries for now, Putin's gone mad and he's not going to return from his realm of madness.

> just like we were in 1956
If you're familiar with Stalin's repressions, you would know there is no mercy from the KGB. Hence, surrendering is not an option.

> Putin will pretend those were the goals all along ofc, because this is how it goes: aim high, then claim a lower goal later. 
So you're eager to give a gangster what he wants, thinking you'll be safe giving up once. But you won't be safe. You'll give him more and more presents until all's left is your organs for sale. Do you think Putin will stop? Do you think he won't eat any other country, including yours own, alive?

An expert of Putin (and not a Russian shill) would know that the only thing Putin favors is the brute force. If you give him presents, he'll ask for more. If you show him the muscles or make it extremely painful for him to conquer your country, he'll lose his shit and run away.
>>/46658/
> If not supporting Ukraine then it's clearly supporting Russia.
It is, since the Ukraine is the country that's being tortured by Putin right now. The context we're in is this very context and the deal is fairly simple. Only a Putin apologist would parrot his position right now. And you're parroting his position, I have not seen any condemns of Russian aggression made by you.

> It was like that in every war.
That's how national movements succeed. Not by pleading for mercy, but by a guerilla war.

> You are again very much misrepresenting
Misrepresenting what, your blaming of Putin's actions made solely by Putin on the Western leaders? That's a key recurring point of your shilling: all responsibility of Putin's actions is either on Ukrainians or Western people, but not on Putin. It is a well known logical fallacy employed by Putin's bots. You  parrot the same ugly fallacies and key talking points, which for sure does not make you independent from the Russian propaganda any little.
>>/46659/
> Ukrainian people just want peace and left alone to live their lives quietly.
You're parroting the same talking points that are debunked already, therefore, you're a shill.

There's no such a thing as a mercy given by the KGB. Putin will slaughter Ukrainian people regardless of how nice they plead.

Putin did it in the first day, he did it in the Crimea, he does it to Russians. Dissent's gonna be killed of by government terrorism. That's how Putin got to power: through FSB false flag bombings. That's how he stays in power, through profiling, unlawful prosecutions, death squads, secret prisons, tortures and all the other totalitarian regimes' best friends.
>>/46661/
> It is, since the Ukraine is the country that's being tortured by Putin right now.
Dozens of armed conflicts are going on all over the world I don't have to take any side in any of it. Even in those where Hungarian soldiers are present in some form.
The rest you write is literal trash. What KGB? What the fuck you're talking about even?
Sucking "guerilla war" pipedream? Wtf.
Writing about no surrender like you weren't shitposting from your cozy armchair but clenching your rifle in the trenches. What a great Ukrainian internetcommando you are. Or maybe you want others to think you are Ukrainian patriot to embarrass those with your blabbering.
>>/46664/
This ain't no regular conflict, this is a declaration of war to the world peace as we know it. Khuilo wants to unleash a new world war and Hunguary will suffer the same fate Ukraine suffers now.
And only a shit eater, a govnoed will ever do the lip service to Putin in that case, knowing that thier country will become part of sovok just a bit after.

> The rest you write is literal trash.
Which you ignore, since you cannot argue about the fame of Russian totalitarianism that is so well known throughout the world.

> What KGB?
Don't try to tell us you don't know what Komitet Gosudarstvennoi Bezopasnosti means. If you don't know what it is, no statement you do about Putin is credible, since Putin is a KGB officer and there is no such thing as a former KGB agent. It't a brand that's given for life, a golden (as in King Anti Midas who makes shit instead of gold) mark every sane person should be utterly disgusted of.

Again, you did not ever consider my words on that there was no option to surrender. Surrendering to a KGB officer is a death sentence with a long painful prelude of torture. KGB shows no mercy, therefore, the only option is to resist the gebnya until gebnya will break down. Which certainly will happen, I did a post on the cause.

Again, you have not taken into account these peculiaricties of KGB mercy (KGB mercy = torture). You are actively denying the facts. You are a pro-Khuilo shill.

> What a great Ukrainian internetcommando you are. Or maybe you want others to think you are Ukrainian patriot to embarrass those with your blabbering.
As a shill, you aim to say that your opponents are either shills or plainly biased. Shilling means being a professional victim and you're looking just like the one, you did accuse other people in this thread shortly after you were named a shill. Yet you did not base this accusations on anything. And proofs of your shilling  (repeated parroting of debunked points, for example) are laid out, neat and clean.

So, how much do they pay at Lakhta-2, you shill?
>>/46665/
> This ain't no regular conflict, this is a declaration of war to the world peace as we know it. 
t. drooling retard

Did you know that Putin at least 10 cm taller than Zelenskyy?
>>/46666/
> paid shill goes butthurt, changes the topic and lowers the bar to amoeba level
Typical paid pro-Putin shill reaction.

So, you didn't answer that question, how much do they pay you at Lakhta-2, osobo tsennyi sotrudnik so znaniem angliiskogo yazyka? Does it pay much to rat for Prigozhin?
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End of the day full picture. Russians didn't made much progress but as he said >>/46646/ it's day 2. They probably moved on and halted by Ukrainian army in their fortifications.

>>/46667/
> changes the topic
I'm just ignoring you because you aren't important.
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Here's closer screenshots of important areas.
Tomorrow probably fights will start in Kiev.
Chernigov is on the Desna river. I would assume that could be a good line to held out, but maybe Desna isn't that large, I dunno that river
At Kharkov fights are going on since yesterday. From the map it seems they approach from different directions. Encirclement would be an understandable thing to do, in fact at all the cities and towns that could be used in the defence. Siege of Eszék/Osijek comes to mind.
In the south Russians seemed to gain a bridge on the Dnieper at Kherson, they also moved on Melitopol.

I find the info coming in lopsided.
First Russian troops can't narrowcast (probably forbidden, I expect some material be uploaded to the net at some point, partially used in propaganda) their stuff and most videos and tweets are coming from Ukrainian civilians, Ukrainian and foreign journalists among them. While before the attack satellite images were shared by western news agencies about Russian troop deployment, now I don't see much about their movements. However due to the civilian narrowcasting we have some idea about what's happening where. But no news about Ukrainian positioning, understandably they keep that quiet. Data about the losses also coming from Ukrainian sorces, but only about the Russian losses. I saw a report on Al JAzzera saying that according to Ukrainian sources 2800 Russian troops were killed, 80 tanks, 516 armoured combat vehicles, 10 aircrafts and 7 helicopters destroyed. This data can't be verified, losses must be higher than yesterdays ~100, that's obvious. No word about Ukrainian losses however.

Listening Al Jazeera, they said China refused to join sanctions against Russia. That was expected.
Also reading a NATO battlegroup is set up in Northern Hungary, a German company will be part of it.
Russia got banned from Eurovision song contest.
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How bad will the new gulags be?
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> Lakhta
> Crimea
> Russia
> shill
> Putin

Oh god, this thread now is like 2014 at typical Russian forum again. Such nostalgic feel.

Anyway, just some content:

1. Another approximate map. I don't think that lines and colored areas are good for measurement though, because it is very mobile warfare without proper front lines and territorial control. So separate units of both sides may move everywhere.
2. Millerovo military airport (Russia, Rostov region) got hit. Most likely single tactical ballistic missile.
3. Cinematic Kadyrov. He promised that 10 thousands of best warriors in the world will solve every problem, etc etc. Although it is debatable how much Chechen personnel really engaged in action.
Zelensky has said "they will storm at night" its like 2 AM in Kiev and nothing so far has happened (as far as anyone not there knows).
>>/46672/
> Although it is debatable how much Chechen personnel really engaged in action
Never forget how large the Russian Muslim population is. Slavs have been aborting millions of their babies for decades and its starting to have ramifications outside the core regions Of Russia.
>>/46658/
> Well you can say that Ukraine was always meant to be defeated by Russia then.

No... That has nothing to do with it at all. A nation can fight a long and bloody battle in their capital and still win or have their capital cut off and still win.
Combat near the Kiev Zoo now, I hope the animals will be alright.

Also I heard there was a Ukrainian ace that has shot down 6 Ruskie planes. So it was said but this was from a guy on a /jp/ spin-off.
>>/46676/
The Chechens will spare the non-halal animals, the rest are fair game to be eaten.
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>>/46670/
> How bad will the new gulags be?

hopefully things dont get too bad

>>/46616/
> I also question our future. What neighbour we get? Russia? 
What neigbor will we all get? Is this the start of the rest of a full blown EU invasion? Who evens knows at this point

> I wonder how Ukrainians feel and think about the situation.

Probably awful and panicky. I've mentioned before, but I knows some people from Ukraine so I'm feeling very saddenings about it. Internet is down, so I can't confirm anything about them. :(((((((((((((((((((( 

I've been very depresed in my flat since the entire thing happened.
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>>/46672/
How are Russians handling this situation bernd? I heard they were protesting the war a few days ago. Can't imagine that anybody enjoys what's been going on over the last few days.
Finally some news. It seems they were able to push them back from the zoo. I was worried for a bit but it looks like the zoo animals are going to be alright. I just hope none were killed in the fighting.

>>/46680/
I enjoy it, I'm quite happy about this war. Well apart from the threat to the zoo animals...
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Situation at the moment.
Russian landing attempt near Odessa failed.
Melitopol is divided, battle is going on.
Kiev is the main attraction now. I have to assume Russian troops entered from the NW from the direction of Gostomel. In the west a bridge was blown up not long ago, most likely to make the way in harder from there. But fights are inside Kiev and it seems Russians are approaching from the NW too.
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>>/46672/
That's similar to what certain threads were on the Krautchan back then as well. Maybe I should have call him pidoratnik or something. I could comment on the behaviour but I rather not to dwell on it much. Maybe I have to later, one can never know.
> Another approximate map. I don't think that lines and colored areas are good for measurement though,
Yeah, it seems action is going on beyond Cherigov too for example, even tho the map doesn't show.
> Millerovo military airport (Russia, Rostov region) got hit. 
Arms reaching further.
> Cinematic Kadyrov
Men spread out to appear more than the actual number. Dramatic.
> 10 thousands of best warriors in the world will solve every problem,
Muslims fighting over the Black Sea. Like some hundred years ago in the good old days.

>>/46673/
Russians in Kiev now, so something must have happened.

>>/46674/
I think somewhere I saw stats on the abortion in the Soviet Union. Maybe was on pol, new, or the q boards.

>>/46675/
The last such war was Rome's against Hannibal I think. But that wasn't my point. My point was: if it's to close to avoid and then just let the Russians in there, then we could say it is unavoidable for Ukraine to be defeated so why not just give up - let's start at the end, and skip the prelude.
I know you did not mean like that, I did not misunderstand you.
>>/46684/
China in ww2, Moscow in the Napoleonic wars, Paris in the Hundred years war, civil wars of course and there are probably many more examples. But that's not important.

> My point was: if it's to close to avoid and then just let the Russians in there, then we could say it is unavoidable for Ukraine to be defeated so why not just give up - let's start at the end, and skip the prelude. I know you did not mean like that, I did not misunderstand you.

That's not really a good Idea for Ukraine though, because they should actually want to fight in the capital, they should want urban fighting, they should want another Grozny(or multiple Groznys). That and it's also not in their best interest strategically in other ways as well, if they give up Kiev they will be pushed back to the next urban area and the further they are pushed back the more likely it is that the Russians could intercept east to west communications. If that happens they are in big trouble and they won't be able to get any equipment from Nato sent to the east either.
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>>/46676/
>>/46681/
> zoo
According to openstreemap there are two zoos in Kiev, to the north in the outskirts at the Dniepr and to the south of central Kiev. I assume what you described must be in the north, it's near Vyshigorod, where a hydro-power plant stands. That is a strategic location so more fighting is expected there sadly.

>>/46679/
> What neigbor will we all get?
Now I'm thinking a Belarus type of Ukraine would suit Russia the best. Putin would gain a safe border and a buffer zone, which everyone consider more or less sovereign state, which western powers don't violate, but he could still station or send troops via that country.
> Is this the start of the rest of a full blown EU invasion? Who evens knows at this point
One thing also worth to consider: after WWII the lands Hungary got back were taken again, but instead giving Kárpátalja back to Czechoslovakia the Soviet Union decided to keep it to herself. Why? Because in the fights the fortification lines manned by Germans (6th army) and Hungarians (1st army) in Carpathians proved to be to hard nut to crack and these were never broken through, they could only get into the Carpathians with the help of the Romanians who switched sides. For this reason the Soviet leadership thought to be prudent to keep a foot inside the Carpathian basin, a gate open, just in case.
If Russia subdues Ukraine, again they'll have a foot in here, and while the Carpathians could be a strong bastion, they will mean no obstacle if the worse comes. Western leaders don't care ofc (and Western people aren't aware), they'll be fine if an enemy arriving from the east can only be stopped in the hills/mountains of Austria and Czechia.
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>>/46686/
There is a third one in between those two. Really they have three zoos? Very fortunate, Kiev must be a rich and prosperous city.
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Russians was trying for another airfield SW of Kiev.
Also this thing says the zoo is near the Peremohy Avenue. Maybe it's a third place?
>>/46687/
Ah I see it, thanks. I just searched on openstreetmap "kiev zoo" and it got two hits.
Kiev is a big city. In term of prosperousness, it's in Ukraine...
>>/46680/
> How are Russians handling this situation bernd? I heard they were protesting the war a few days ago. Can't imagine that anybody enjoys what's been going on over the last few days.

I can't tell about acceptance of war because it is pretty hard to measure. There are plenty of Russians who see this justified as retaliation for Donbass, especially considering that these people rarely get information from sources other than official. And official sources are pretty quiet, they say that there is no war but military operation, Russia has no casualties at all (they really said it), Russia never target any civilian infrastructure etc. So for those people it is ok. Part of them don't want war but has internal conflict like "it is inevitable and must happen, but war is bad".

It is also sometimes very fun, because official Russian position was "they want war, we don't", and propaganda used anti-war theme as main thing for 8 years. For example, WW2 theme (almost sacred) always used as comparison to modern events, and Russia never starts war, but evil enemies do. And now officials try to avoid "war" in any reports (like threatening media for using this word).

Society already divided over Ukraine. Many people may become very stubborn in Ukrainian discussion, sometimes it is even dangerous to discuss, because it will may lead to confrontation. 

Plenty of people against war of course, some because humanitarian reasons (including large amount of people who has relatives in Ukraine), some because economic (collapse is hard, prices go up). I guess majority is against war, but Russian society has no connection with decision makers, so it doesn't matter anyway.
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Looks like they are making more progress in the south, they took the rest of Meltipol and are moving on. I made this map.

Looking at the area there does not seem to be many large urban areas in the lines of advance I marked(Dark Green) and as it's Ukraine it should be fairly open so it may be not so difficult for them to make progress here. If they do that puts the Ukrainian forces in Donbass and Mariupol in danger of being cut of. If they manage to take Kharkiv they might even cut them all off.
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>>/46691/
Here's map of population density (sorta), also from Haaretz. Shitty resolution.
>>/46692/
Kharkiv is bigger than I thought, that might give them problems. But Southern Ukraine certainly does look underpopulated.
>>/46693/
Probably wheat fields after buckwheat fields after potato fields.
>>/46693/
Makes sense tbh. In xvi century there was pretty much no settlements in this area. All various refugees, criminals, slaves and adventurous types would run there because it was too far for goverment authorities and normal settlers would have hard time surviving.
>>/46694/
In WW2 it was open steppe, not sure about now though.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=HrwpdRe7meM 
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>>/46695/
Were Tatar lands.

>>/46696/
Pastures and cultives.
Which also makes sense for Putin Khan wanting to unite all the lands of the Horde.
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This is breddy far from any possible quick ground support. Did they just make it randomly? Someone thought:
> lyu kno vat vud bi gud aydya? djiamp on brody vid or xielicopters, blyad

>>/46690/
> And now officials try to avoid "war" in any reports (like threatening media for using this word).
It is not invasion or assualt. Is is peacekeeping operation, denazification. We just demilitarize.
so after the initial shock and textbook opening of the war, Russians don't seem to perform that well. if the claimed death count of 3000 on the Russian side is anywhere near true, that's a lot for just 2 days. they seem to have underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and don't look prepared that well. it doesn't help that the Russian zoomer conscripts weren't properly briefed and think this is just another drill and that Ukrainians want to be liberated. the longer this drags on, the more expensive this becomes for Russia. as if the economical fallout from the sanctions isn't terrible enough, providing their army with food and weapons is expensive.
meanwhile Ukraine does a good job hiding their positions while getting more and more weapons from Britain, Netherlands and Poland. Don't know if Turkey sends more of their drones.
>>/46700/
I suspect that these early attacks may have been probing attacks. They may have been throwing forces into the Ukrainians in the hope that if they were fast and violent enough they might be bale to take vital points with little effort. But bow they know that is not the case they should change their approach and focus more on open warfare and encirclements.
>>/46701/
if you consider just sending some paratroopers into western ukraine as probing to see what happens, then Russia really doesn't care about losses.
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>>/46702/
I'm not really sure what is happening there or if anything is even happening at all.
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>>/92156/
Does anybody know how to contact the Russian military? I think they could use this to guide their artillery strikes:
https://lainchan.org/sec/res/16254.html#18827
>>/46704/
No, and noone here should do anything.
The situation can freely be discussed from whatever angle but participation is another thing.
>>/46705/
But I want to send them my maps as well...
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My ideas can't be any worse than this guy.
>>/46706/
[email protected]
>>/46707/
Offer 'em hamburgers like NY mayor for vaccination.
>>/46700/
I don't trust the numbers for couple of reasons.
First is the "law of the ever growing numbers". This has couple of parts. First our number is high because we are the good guys and we are strong, ofc we are a lot in numbers. And the enemy's number is high - if we win because we can defeat so much, if we lose because only so much can defeat us. It's similar with the casualties, overreporting the enemy's is a thing, for same reasons. Note we have no reports of Ukrainian losses. Russians don't report at all (if there is no war, there must be no casualties anyway), and what numbers we get that is the tally done by the Ukrainian leadership.
Second, it is not easy to calculate. One guy said he saw a plane shot. Other guy says he also saw one. Then they check their testimony and there will be enough discrepancies in the story to count it as different event. Maybe airplane isn't the best example now they have cameras - and I see footages people walking up to wreckages - so that is a medium that can be relied on. But it's the principle of this. Two guys can fire on same target and both claim they got one each.
Take the numbers with hint of salt.
> anywhere near true,
But it could be close to that.

> textbook opening of the war
My impression is how differently the thing seems from what we could get used to in the case of Syria. In Syria they had a relatively long phase of shelling and bombing before each attack. Here in the opening move we could see couple of rockets and air strikes. Then came the helicopter/desant attack against Gostomel, or the tanks rolled in like in the Donbass, or a whole convoy sped through the border like in Crimea.
Now ofc they soften targets with artillery, just look at this smiley bloke and his pals with the katyushas. But it doesn't seem (from the map we follow) that they do it long (for days, like in Syria).
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>>/46710/
Forgot the vid related.
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Third day is coming to its end.
Situation have not changed much. I see the shelling I was missing earlier.
There's fighting in Kiev, but the only thing that looks sure that Russians hold Gostomel. Kiev is surrounded by forests (except from the west-south west), towards the NW a national park in particular, which should have quite the woods, suitable for defense.
Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, and other towns towards the east got shelled.
In the south the Russians made considerable gains, with this pace they'll reach Mariupol tomorrow (they stand about 50-80 kms from it).
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They are attacking Kharhiv now and it seems they have gotten pretty far. AND THERE IS ACTUALLY COMBAT FOOTAGE FOR ONCE!! Finally we can see what is actually happening. Well to a degree, it's not great. But it does show Russian forces moving along the streets but they are not in BTRs they are using the Russian version of a HUMV, odd.
can i say regardless of the bias: those ukrainina spellings are the gay
why now is suddenly everythings has got to be full with i and y?
too bad larping when the government are all native of russisch!
Ukraine just announced the creation of International territorial defence units. Anybody who wants to join is asked to go to their local Ukrainian embassy.

Maybe a few years ago I would have done that, not that I care about either side, I don't(But I think it would be more amusing if Russia won). But now, I don't know about it. All I want to do is find a nice house to live in and watch anime, I don't want to go to war anymore.
>>/46714/
Yeah. Grew up on Panzer General. IT'S KHARKOV GODDAMIT!
>>/46713/
1. They entered Ukraine.
2. They went until they found resistance.
3. There they got engaged by the Ukrainians.
4. They stopped. Maybe initiated recon by force form different directions to see the different levels of resistance.
5. They started the artillery strike to soften the places of resistance.
6. They started the attack.
Or maybe not. It looks like it.

>>/46715/
That is not a bad idea. NATO could send troops as volunteers.
I know Croats had international brigade during the Yugo wars - I'm not adding this as a comment on NATO involvement, just something I remembered.
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Same problem with Beloroosian. IT'S LUKASHENKO GODDAMIT!
It's a sound between a and o, and I think it's a short one as I hear it, but Hungarian pronunciation is very different, we don't have that sound, and I always pronounce it with strong A when I see the name and it just sounds wrong to my ear.
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What does this mean? We're gonna have access to sat images?
>>/46717/
That sounds about right. Early on they were probably hoping for as little damage to them and the Ukrainians(who they would be ruling afterwards) as possible, now they shift to a more conventional approach.

Maybe, but they don't really need troops, they need equipment. The fact that they blocked men under 60 from leaving and now are asking for foreigners to help seems like they really want more men and as it's not men they lack in the first place that could be a worry. They might be relying on cannon fodder.
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Here's Ian Garner's thoughts on how Putin loses the propaganda war:
https://nitter.net/irgarner/status/1497580562751574016
He is a historian specializes in the representation of WWII in Soviet and Russian literary and cultural works. So essentially in Soviet/Russian propaganda.
Problem is they can't create heroes, they can't even talk about war. It's some bureaucratic, abstract job that needs to be done and forget about it. It cannot make own population care.
Meanwhile Ukraine rules the internet. All the things we see here too, following that liveuamap, the information about the events, or the majority videos in the polru threads come from Ukrainain sources. They control the narrative how the world gets know the conflict, what the world will remember. And this seeps into the internet media the Russian people consumes, and what's gonna happen when - Garner says - when the bodybags will arrive back to home, when they'll see the Russian mothers and babushkas crying. This will make the war very unpopular.
I remember reading (I think it was the book titled: Guerillas in the Mist) that the USA lost Vietnam at home, the North used the American media to make their efforts unpopular, despised. North Vietnam won through propaganda. So I think as the conflict gets longer Ukraine get higher chance to pull off a stalemate or even a win, if the Russian propaganda can't show something to counter the Ukrainian propaganda efforts.

Garner uses some examples, one about the heroic Zelensky defending in Kiev appears on one of my screenshots too, I deliberately included on it: >>/46682/
> I need ammunition not a ride
Genius.
Just looking around here we can find other examples. Although this is a NY Times report but also shows the brave civilians stepping up when the need arises. Doing great job of creating heroes.
Or this other video which showing Ukrainian civilians trying to stop Russian tanks. These images will get all over the world, into Russia too.
Or like these reports of the losses. Srsly, when come to numbers this what we get:
1. Russian military losses;
2. Ukrainian civilian losses.
What we don't get is the Ukrainian military losses. And this is because Putin and co. fails to counter Ukrainian propaganda.
Don't get me wrong, numbers game don't help the attacker when his action is already depicted as unjust. Did not help US in Vietnam when the results only could be counted in body count.
>>/46721/
Also check that caption on that losses report:
> official sources
Average person will think:
> well if it's official it cannot be wrong
>>/46720/
hypotheses:
1. millions migrate from before 1 decade: how much did population crash? 8 millions? 10?
2. those become gastarbeiter for russland/polen/deutschland
3. gastarbeiter => young population
4. remain is low fertility: 1.3 for woman
thesis: today population maybe is more older demographic?

>>/46721/
is not ukraine rules the internet but is u.s.a. rules the internet
those mediaplatforms are not of ukraine but those intensify only 1 propaganda side
>>/46723/
You mean Ukrainian demographic?
Yes many went abroad, just as Romania, Ukraine also lost millions from the population mostly from the younger generation. There were numbers floating around.

Yes, those platforms are American, and the companies can pick whom voice is heard. They can amplify one side, while silence others. But this isn't the point.
1. Ukrainians create narrative, their government, and even the common people;
2. There is no other side, no Russian narrative to silence, it's just what Putin said before and that's it.
Even in Russia the govt. not just quite about what's happening, but they discouraged/banned media outlets from talking about  war or invasion, or assult and whatever. There is no propaganda going there depicting successes, the heroes of the fight, or how the enemy is evil.

The last part, showing an evil enemy in this conflict is especially hard for Russian leadership, because when the war is over, and if they win, they have to set up a brotherly Ukraine, who counts as a friendly nation every Russian loves. This is hard to do when just before they were called evil. Or they have to incorporate Ukraine in the Russia, and it will be hard to tell people, that "hey 10 minutes ago they were evil, but now we stand together against evil west".
There was some talk about nazis and denazification, but I doubt anyone thinks whole Ukrainian army is nazi.
>>/46721/
If those reports are to be believed the Russian army will be dead to a man in a month or two...
The Ukrainians used to report military casualty numbers all through the Donbass insurgency and they did for the very first day but they have not done so since. Suspicious.
Part of Russia's problem is that they make things so unbelievable that nobody can believe it. Like now, they are saying that it's fine, nobody is dying Russia has no casualties. Now clearly that is not true.

>>/46723/
Well yes but not to the degree that they need to stop every man of fighting age from leaving the country, they already outnumber the Russians as it is(but we will see how long that lasts as Russia could bring more force in). But what will be interesting is how many of the refugees that are leaving now will stay in their new homes. Ukraine could lose all her unmarried women and widowed babushkas as they decide to stay where they are. Australia is talking about accepting Ukrainian refugees, many nations are it seems.
>>/46725/
> Australia is talking about accepting Ukrainian refugees, many nations are it seems.
They're coming in here too. Over 60 thousand arrived in this three days.
Australia is only accepting sexy Ukranian refugees.