/kc/ - Krautchan

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Kárpáthír is a Hungarian language newspaper from Kárpátalja. They usually have more first hand news than Hungarian papers in Hungary, who take articles from them.
This one reports about a PoW exchange, soldiers fought at Bakhmut. Notable snippets:
- 106 Ukrainian soldiers were freed.
- The article uses the term honvéd = home-defender/patriot for the private ranked soldiers like it is used in the Hungarian Defence Forces.
- 68 of them were recorded as Missing in Action.
- oldest is 58, youngest is 21
- no news on how many Russians were given.
https://karpathir.com/2023/05/25/fogolycsere-tortent-bahmutnal/

 >>/50296/
> Well I saw one article writing about the "tactical encirclement of Bakhmut, now the Russians are in trouble".
Clearly both the journalist and the intended readers never look at frontline maps on their own. It bears noting that months before they finished the battle, the Russians got very close to Khromove and Ivanivske and placed the supply roads under fire control, many commented that it was getting encircled. And yet the city's defenders didn't collapse from a lack of supplies and reinforcements, presumably they drove through the dirt roads in the middle. Where there's a will, there's a way.

This imminent Ukrainian offensive (just as Russian victory in Bakhmut, which was "imminent" for months) lost a big opportunity when the battle ended. They could've attacked elsewhere while Wagner and other good Russian units were tied up in the city and unable to respond. They had plenty of time, too. Why didn't this happen? Presumably Ukrainian formations earmarked for the offensive were rotated into "irrelevant" Bakhmut. It was the Russians who attacked elsewhere (Vuhledar), though it ended in disaster. This is one of my two "success" metrics for Bakhmut and it's in favor of the Russians, the other metric is attrition, for which there are wildly different interpretations.

> Don't worry they establish right at the beginning U.S. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and NATO alliance head Jens Stoltenberg, and all the western experts say it's nothingburger. And they are right in a way, the high ground at Chasiv Yar and the ridge which separates Bakhmut from the chain of towns with Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are more important. But since god knows how many Ukrainian fighters were torn into pieces (I guesstimate it between 25K and 100K, maybe I'll make a post about how I reached this) Bakhmut was a very important battle.
Back in December, Zelensky told the American Congress that Bakhmut is Ukraine's "stronghold in the east" and the fight "will change the trajectory of our war". So the city is relevant when it can generate more weapons deliveries and irrelevant when it doesn't anymore.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/politics/zelensky-congress-address-transcript/index.html

 >>/50300/
Russia is tacticly encriclementing Ukriane.
> which was "imminent" for months
Due to mud there is no real offensives in spring on the South Russian steppes. It had to be imminent for the reasons you wrote to drum up more deliveries. And people get disinterested if they don't hear something exciting constantly.
> irrelevant when it doesn't anymore.
Well relevance is temporal either way. Many irrelevant places in history was made relevant for the time of a battle. Not everything can be fought at Stalingrad.

Prigozhin said something interesting about the figures of the battle of Bakhmut.

He says he recruited 50,000 convicts of which 20% died, so 10k, and that roughly that number of contract PMCs died as well, so 20k all up. He then says a further 20% were wounded(which he states means unable to perform combat duties for 3 months or more). So another 20k or less, considering that he didn't state how many contract PMCs there were but I doubt there were more than there were convicts.

So 20,000 dead and around 20,000 wounded. Though this does not account for Russian army losses but they didn't do the brunt of the fighting there.

Against this he says the Ukrainians lost 50,000 dead and around 50,000-70,000 wounded.

It's hard to know what to make of this, admitting 20,000 dead does seem pretty honest though, I think that the Wagner casualty figures are accurate at least.

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Ukraine wants 450 Guarani APCs from Iveco's Brazilian factory. For purely humanitarian reasons, as an armored ambulance for evacuating civilians and wounded fighters. 450 armored ambulances. Back in September they wanted an equivalent number of regularly armed personnel carriers to carry personnel.

This deal is unlikely to be approved because Lula has upheld Bolsonaro's refusal to sell any kind of weapons to Ukraine. Now there's an element of emotional blackmail:
> If there is a rejection this time, Brazil may compromise its image in the eyes of the international community, since it is not a sale of military equipment that is in question.

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 >>/50303/
I dunno about Prigo. He talks lotta bs. Probably he knows it well that everything what he says will be printed, so he just throws out whatever comes to his mind.

The battle went on for about 9 months. I'm not sure about the start, Wikipee says 2022 August 1st, the first screenshots of the livemap I made are from 3rd and 7th, and the situation is picrel, and just at Sept. ~15th when they reached the outskirt of Bakhmut (picrel #3). On average the minimum that both side lost is 100/day. One question is this "loss" includes KIA, MIA, WIA, POW?
Here is Mediazona again:
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng 
They count deaths which can be verified from various sources. According to this, PMCs lost ~1500 and recruited prisoners ~4000 since the start of the war. Lost as dead. So even if they can't verify half, that is only 3000+8000. Way below what Prigo says. And way way below what Western "experts" say.

 >>/50304/
They'll get ambulance F-16s and they'll get over it.

Here are some youtube channel to look into:
Defense Asia Politics:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UChF7fmbeF805ceGO0EfpjUA
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCgGHiivhFq7M_1MLemh-cjg
Weeb Union:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCy-p2WfI1exR0yrmNFRfcag
NWE War Reports:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UC0EnYUt8dJUYcDgHUFG8vYA
As far as I know they are skeptical towards the claims of Western mainstream media.

Denys Davydov:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCpr-NNORb2UQYDD3k-w-OFg
I think I linked a video of his related to the broken Leopard 2. He is pro-Ukrainian. I assume he himself is Ukrainian.

Now that post a list I should include these two as well:
HistoryLegends:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCHqqf2BwNM4Oih-a_ikbWww
WillyOAM:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UC0PAiiu0jZWN83qXQRDq9xA

 >>/50307/
So. My first impressions:
- DPA (uh i switched up two words): hard to listen (especially Slavic place names), he has wider range of topics on his main channel;
- WU: kinda shallow, but perhaps it's just the lack of hapenings and info these days;
- NWE: not bad.
One of these -  sadly don't remember which, I dont care that much to look up - said: all these fucking maps, it would be nice if Ukrainians wouldn't call their own attacks as Russian attack (referring to all the red assault signs on the map). Heh.
- DD: he is very much Ukrainian to the point where he is willing to say outright lies like Hungary does not give humanitarian aid either - which makes me think what untruth are also told. This doesn't sit well with me. On the plus side he does make good points sometimes, and is quick to call out the other side's bs. He is motivated. One more good thing, since it's his mother tongue he reads and translates fluently everything right from any cyrillic - other channels struggle kek.

 >>/50309/
Ah I found it in recent video, Defense Politics Asia said: the Ukro def ministry calls their own offensives Russian offensives.

Tensions rising in Kosovo. 20 Hungarian "peacekeepers" got hurt when beating protesters.

 >>/50305/
That's not that different, Prigo said 10,000 convicts, so that would only be 2k more. The 3,000 PMCs is a lot less but then Mediazon has a category called N/A which lists 5,000 killed, maybe PMCs make up a large amount of that.

It is interesting that convicts make up 17% of Russian casualties now. More than any other group apart from N/A.

The Ukrainians launched several drones at Moscow(I have heard 10), most were shot down but they damaged two residential buildings.

Like the ground raid done not long ago nothing was achieved. But, they both could be probing attacks designed to gauge Russian defences.
Though I think that whatever the case it's pretty silly. Ukraine should not give the Russians a reason to feel threatened or a reason to feel that they need to push the war further than they otherwise would. They should focus on making the war as costly as possible on the battlefield.

 >>/50316/
There was a previous "drone" attack which were called a false flag operation. One of the reason that was cited, that this kinda provocation only good for Moscow.

The difference between Russia and Western Europe:
- In Russia, the top politicians own the large economic factors so they steer the country they can make the most profit.
- In WEurope, the large economic factors own the top politicians so they steer the country they can make the most profit.

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The. First. Trailer. Of. An. Offensive. Ever.
Hype.

The two usual map I visit (live and deepstate) are useless now.
DPA says Ukrainian's are attacking towards Kreminna, while Russians south of them along the Donetsk river. There is also another Ukrainian attack is going on north of Svatove (Kupiansk front). He cites "neutral sources and Russian official reports".
Damn just checked and he releases lots of videos. They are short. He also says Chechens went to Marinka to fight.

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Russians took out strategic traffic light in Kiev with a precision strike.

 >>/50319/
And yet they won't give us a release date.

 >>/50322/
They really have to show something because there is no spectacular changes on map, and they don't disclose their operation. So Western public see nothing in return their investment.
Some Ukrainian made drone dronestrikes on Moscow, but that doesn't really count.

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torposting test

 >>/50324/
Try >>>/int/

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In most recent videos DPA reports Ukrainian offensive on a wide front in that corner in the south, from the salient in East Zaporozhia at Velyka Novosilka, to West Donetsk up to Marinka (where Russians crawling forward), probably in the direction of Mariupol. Supporting this maneuver other attacks were launched, like at Avdiivka, but up to Kupiansk there are some probing attacks. For now.
The easiest if I link the videos (as a reference point too):
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=kyqqu8ciod8
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=PMqkaxhU9QM
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lY_dXQB_ai8
The third video is the most important.
It's just started essentially so no results yet.
ISW also noted considerable fights in the region of Velyka Novosilka yesterday. Picrel is from the most recent report of theirs at the moment. Perhaps there will be more tomorrow. (The usual maps I check are useless now.)

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 >>/50329/
There is some footage surfacing of an attack in the Zapro region that seems to have failed. So it must be on a broader front as in some cases they appear to have taken ground.

The Ukrainians might have abandoned an AMX 10 somewhere along the front as well.
I would say once we see Western armour employed that is where and when the offensive will be, though this is an AMX 10 so not really armour.

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Ukraine Defense Ministry reports advances around Bakhmut.
I think they report successes and hush up failures - which they write off as repelled Russian attacks.
Also they want to draw attention to this. Either simply for the success, or because they want less attention on elsewhere.
It makes sense to attack at Bakhmut (too), since operations just recently finished, the hold on the front is the less solidified. If I were the Russians I would have a stable defense line behind the Bakhmutka river. That is basically what they had ~9 months ago.
Heh, the CNN has to write articles about the strategically important Bakhmut now.

 >>/50330/
They have open flat terrain there (unlike the hilly region around Bakhmut), must be hard.
> Western armour employed
My bet is they hold off with that. Destroyed ones are bad PR. They are heavy, I'm not sure about the infrastructure and the ground. If Ukrainians can get results they'll parade some Leo 2-s in recaptured towns as they roll in. Well that's a way to employ them.

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VROOOM VROOOOM

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The Ukrainians still control a village in Belgorod. It's interesting that they have not been pushed out or retreated.

 >>/50331/
That's why I follow pro Russian and Pro Ukrainian telegram channels, they often say opposite things. The Pro Ukraine side is saying that everything is going great and they are taking back land, the Pro Russian side says they are failing to make progress and losing a lot of equipment.
On that, the Pro Russian's state that the Ukrainian losses are quite heavy and that it includes leopards(but I have seen no proof yet). Two more AMX 10s were abandoned though.

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Evil Russians blew up Kakhovka Dam because they just destroy mindlessly, and want people suffer from the flood downstream.
Luckily their evil plan is backfired and they flooded themselves. Also due to the lower levels of water in the reservoir the Ukrainians will have easier time to conduct river crossing operations at Energodar and the NPP.
Really hammering their own fingers these stupid Russians.

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Vidrel has to be somewhere in length.
I think the bullheaded idiot got enough of Prigo's shitposting and when drunk he decided he'll show who is the boss.

 >>/50334/
> retreated
If they have no reason, they feel good there.
> have not been pushed
Maybe they can't. I would think it is important to show the integrity of the border there is impregnable.
> telegram channels,
They usually need registration to Telegram which I won't do.

 >>/50335/
The water level of the reservoir up stream will lower but it's still going to be a huge body of water. But, the flooding will widen and deepen the river down stream which is the area around Kherson and where it's easier to cross. So it makes a Ukrainian attack much harder.

However, I have heard that this will cause problems with Crimea's water supply.

 >>/50336/
You would think that an officer would behave better than this but apparently not in Slavic armies.

I'm thinking of Energodar. Doesn't that need water?

For now it is fine. Let's hope it'll stay like that.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/06/nova-kakhovka-ukraine-dam-collapse-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-iaea

 >>/50337/
The Dnieper is a major river, still it's easier to cross at it's original length, than the reservoir's. Behing the reservoir Russians barely have any fortification.
I feel questions arising about the terrain which I have no reply. How steep the banks of the reservoir? How long will take to dry those out? How long it will take the flood to subside? How long until the ground will be in passable condition (again drying)?
> Crimea's water supply.
I heard about that too. I know one issue was Ukrainians blocking water supply to Crimea. They still got by.
Plus the reservoir was there just holding water, after they created it, the Dnieper just flow through, the water that went in, went out. Not sure how much it played in reality. Just because the media writes about, it perhaps just noise. It would be good to look stuff up, but now the pages in any websearch are loud by this dam thing.
> Slavic armies.
In commie times most of the officers were aggressive blockheads only able to guzzling booze and shouting incomprehensibly. This proud tradition survived in the armies of the post-commie states. This is true to the Central Eastern Euro countries to some extent and worse and worse as we go further East. The NATO "advisors" have problems with this on the Ukraine, but noone advises the Russian army so they have to overcome this by themselves.

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Not a Leopard but it's said a PZ 2000 was destroyed. Hard to identify it definitively from the video.

I don't think I have seen or heard about a PZ 2000 being destroyed before. There are videos coming out of Krabs and Paladins being destroyed all the time but not PZ 2000s.

 >>/50340/
I guess we will have to wait to see how far the water level goes down upstream and if there is a Ukrainian attack upstream.

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Russians started to pound at the shore just opposite Energodar.
New video by Colonel Reisner:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=ZvJgRrpkaaU

 >>/50342/
I'm picking up some info about the dam and the irrigation in Crimea.
The water level in the reservoir was high. But how much that matters? Dunno. But it is noted that the dam got damaged to some extent - and that the dam got no maintenance since the start of the war. I assume the water level was within the norms for the dam in it's usual condition. Could the damage and neglect weaken it enough to give way for the pressure?
As for the irrigation, I found this snippet in the talk of the Wikipee article. In 2014 Ukrainians stopped the water supply and by 2017 they dammed up the canal too. This was the situation till 2022. Perhaps Crimea can do a couple of years without that water. This is another question.

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Another video of a Ukrainian attack being attacked. This one was South of Donetsk.

 >>/50343/
Nice, he has a new shirt. I'll watch it tomorrow, I'm about to go to bed.

Yes, they can and have dealt with not being connected to the dam. But it hampers their agricultural industry. There's going to be a lot of angry farmers in Crimea this year.

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Well this is it. The first footage of Leopard 2s in combat in Ukraine.
It looks like at least one was destroyed...

It seems like the counter offensive has started.

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Heard Leo 2-s at Zaporozhya, the pixels looked like such.

Here is a cool map, created by a Finnish bloke:
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The%20War%20in%20Ukraine/091194
If we go by this map, at Velyke Novosilka we can expect gains by Ukraine, simply from the fact that the line of fortification is some kms behind the front. But this also means Ukraine can't be glad for the gains until they punched that line.

 >>/50363/
> counter offensive has started.
You mean the Russians counter-offensed the Ukrainian offensive?

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Deepstate finally changed the direction of the arrows at Bakhmut.
And now that we are talking about Bakhmut, better to post that Finnish map because why not.

I hear the attack at Velyke Novosilka stopped without any gain, and the weight is now on the attack south of Orikhov, in Tokmak direction. Here were the Leopard 2s.
Lotsa fighting at Bakhmut. Not sure by whom in which direction. UMoD says Russians are attacking, but apparently AFU gains territory, and pro-Ukie sources also say they are on the offense.

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Offensive is hard against prepared positions. We knew they'll lose Leos. It was no question.

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 >>/50370/
It looks like they lost a lot.
This is a longer version of what you posted, there are possibly 5 lost here. The one in your clip plus the one at the very end are definitely leopards, plus there is one in a tree line with a line sweeper that might be one. And there are two other leopards that look like they are in positions ready to fire through a gap in a tree line, maybe they were abandoned like that but maybe they later withdrew, can't say for sure.

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Also here are two taken out by ATGMs.

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And another.

So all up they might have lost 8 just in these videos. As well as quite a few Bradleys. This has to be the offensive proper now.

 >>/50371/
 >>/50372/
 >>/50373/
Thanks.

 >>/50374/
They lost quite a lot armoured and non-armoured vehicles. They are ofc say nothing, so only Russian sources and guesswork remains. 
I do agree - and many I think, analysts and enthusiasts, youtubers and such animals - that this is it.
Prigo dropped the capital punishment bomb and some as well. Couple days ago. He says Bakhmut will be retaken in 1,5 month. Willyoam analyses the talk.

According to the leaked US intel from last thread 12 Brigades were generated for the counter offensive. 9 provided for and equipped by the west, 3 by Ukraine. I'll just list them here anyway.

Of those 9 western Brigades.

The first one,can't see the name
90 BMP -Trained By(TB) PL and CZ
13 T64 -TB UKR
17 Tanks(not stated), probably they would be a similar model to the T64 for logistics and training purposes
12 AS-90 -TB GBR
10 2S1 -TB UKR

47BDE

99 M2(Bradley) -TB US
28 T55S -TB UKR
12 M109 -TB US
12 D-30 -TB UKR


33 BDE

90 MaxxPro -TB UKR
14 Leopard 2A6 -TB GER
18 Leopard 2A4 -TB CAN and POL
12 M119 -TB US

21 BDE

20 CVRT -TB GBR
30 Senator -TB UKR
20 Bulldog -TB UKR
21 Husky -TB UKR
10 M113 - TB UKR
30 T64 - TB UKR
10 FH70 - TB UKR

32 BDE

90 MaxxPro - TB UKR
10 T72 -TB UKR
20 Tanks(not stated)
12 D30 -TB UKR

37 BDE

30 Mastiff/Husky -TB UKR
30 MAstiff/Wolf -TB UKR
Can't read it - TB UKR
14 AMX 10 - TB FR
16 Tanks(not stated)- TB UKR
12 D30

118 BDE

90 M113 - TB BEL, FR, SLOV
28 T72 - TB UKR
6 M109 - TB US
8 FH70  - TB UKR
Can't read

117 BDE

28 Vikings - TB UKR
20 Patria Pasi - TB FIN
10 M113
Can't read - TB UKR
31 PT91 - TB UKR
12 D30 - TB UKR
? AS90 - TB GBR

82 BDE

90 Stryker - TB US
40 Marder - TB GER
14 Challenger - TB GBR
24 M119 - TB US

So it's already borked. We have seen Leopard 2s with Bradleys but Bradleys are only in 47 BDE which has T55S instead. I guess the information is old, things change. But it looks like 47 BDE was involved as well as 33 BDE, or one of these two at least. But anyway, they have 99 Bradleys and lost about a dozen visually confirmed, so about ten percent or one Company.

They have lost about 8 Leopards visually confirmed, so about one companies worth but I think they were split so not actually one company like it may have been with the Bradleys.
But they have probably 32 Leopard in these units, I say probably because there are 53 tanks that they had not decided on yet but I think those would be Soviet types.
So if they did just have 32 Leopards they may have lost about a quarter of them already.

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 >>/50377/
I couldn't recall it correctly if it was 6+3 or 9+3.
Good list. I think this is the leaked docu.
HistoryLegends talks about the units participating in the Velike Novosilka attack. He guesses they were beefed up territorial units while the actual strike group is further back north.

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 >>/50378/
Big problem for Ukraine is that all the info comes from Russia and they can't put anything forward to counter it. Despite that "Shh Campaign" if they had something - like at Bakhmut - they already had declared it because this does not look good at all for Ukraine.
I don't think they have much choice but plough on how Wagner did, have to change tactics.
There is a very interesting criticism again in Willyoam's most recent. Whoever wrote that he puts the blame on NATO, for providing faulty equipment and training, without accountability. I dunno if the equipment is faulty, but getting bunched up like in the videos above was a stupid move and is the same mistake what Russians did at the start of the war.
Oryx is collecting/documenting vehicle losses during the war.
They have this website: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/
And Twitter: https://nitter.net/oryxspioenkop
This is particular tweet in picrel: https://nitter.net/oryxspioenkop/status/1667301470260043777
What they don't seem to note (or I just can't find) that what equipment was destroyed on which day. So no chronology. On their site like here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html each has a link where the event was reported and dates can be gathered from there.

Hungarian news portals only talk about the dam, and that the offensive is surely started, they are doing probing attacks, and drawing out Russians from positions. Even in Fidesz and Govt. close media nothing about the Leos.

All these destroyed Leo's aren't just one scene from different angles?
I think Ukrainians will reconsider, and recover. They did not commit that much yet. They probably also do artillery strikes, and chisel Russians away bit by bit. I think we should give it another week before burying this offensive.

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A Leopard got taken out by a Lancet.

 >>/50384/
Not so much the angle but I thought that  >>/50370/ and  >>/50373/ were separate because of the second road lane in the second video but apparently it might be the same and this is from after wards when a Ukrainian force of Bradleys tried to get to the Leopard 2 and the other Bradleys and lost even more of them(and must have turned up the paddock quite a bit).

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Three More Leopard 2s were hit by Lancets. But we don't know if they were destroyed or not as this is from the drones perspective.

Western MBTs are quite large but they are also quite long and flat, I wonder how much of a difference this makes in spotting them and hitting them, particularly with things like drones.

 >>/50387/
All look stationary and abandoned. I bet all the other scrap was towed away but the Leos because they just too damn heavy, and now Russians making videos by flying at them.

 >>/50363/
Btw, those guys are rolling through a minefield (except that road/cleared patch they threading on) deployed by Ukrainians. They move through their own fortified defensive lines towards the front.

 >>/50390/
So they fucked by their own minefields?
Hilarious if true.

 >>/50392/
The event was geolocated at Mala Tokmachka behind the line of contact. Russians did not deploy mines there. Ukrainians have extensive fortifications with "engineered confinements" all along the front.
They struck at them with artillery while going through the field to the front. It had to be Ukrainian minefield.

 >>/50387/
No I think these were previously disabled/abandoned Leo2s which were taken out by drones to render them FUBAR.

Another scandal is generated.
The story goes soemthing liek:
- soldiers are drafted from Kárpátalja into the AFU
- they got captured by Russians
- the Russian Orthodox Church intervenes and helps to move the PoWs to Hungary
- they still have the PoW status, but they essentially live free, the wounded are treated in hospitals, according to international law, PoWs can be moved to whatever country
- when asked by journos Ukraine said they did not know about this anything
- now they warn that the PoWs will be interviewed and will be say bad things about Ukraine because the Russian Orthodox Church bartered a deal and this was their price for allowing the PoWs to Hungary
- now Ukraine says (again) that Hungary is evil

 >>/50394/
Maybe, it's hard to say. They are not moving but then tanks are not going to be moving all the time so that does not say anything definitive. Some of them have hatches open which would lead me to think they are abandoned but again, it's not definitive they could be open for other reasons.

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Things are just getting worse and worse for the Leopards...

The Ukrainians have taken some ground but not much.
Anyway, they posted this video. It's interesting as the Ukrainians in it look like they know what they are doing, they are moving cohesively, communicating well and they are handling their weapons well.

Nope, I can't post it. It's * minutes long maybe that is why.

Well here is the Telegram link. That's all I can do.

https://t.me/faceofwar/31391

 >>/50398/
> * minutes long

Sorry I'm an idiot and pressed the caps button, I meant 8 minutes.

 >>/50397/
These are new ones 100%
Are there any news they getting more?
It was sure they'll lose some eventually. Perhaps this is too quick rate. Also problem if they can recover them - when something is to recover - they have to haul those back to Polan for fix.

 >>/50398/
That land is there to be lost.
Yesterday I read some news Russians are retreating both in organized and dis-organized fashion, the latter ones sometimes through their own minefields.

It would be interesting to see the lines of Ukrainian fortifications. But even Russians don't disclose that apparently. (They sure have satellite imagery of them).
Video needs to login to Telegram.
> can't post it
Got error message? What was it? What is the file size? You should try uploading on .org, or disable JS and post like that.

 >>/50401/
Wikipedia says they will get 130.

90 Leopard 2A4 with 30 of those being already delivered
10 Stridsvagn 122(Leopard 2A5 equivalent), pending delivery
21 Leopard 2A6, all delivered
3 BPz3 Büffel ARV
And 6 Leopard 2R, pending delivery(well we know that's out of date)

But it's impossible to know what the real numbers will be and what is happening behind the scenes, this is just what Wikipedia says had been announced so far.

It's also impossible to know how many are being used right now as  >>/50377/ is out of date, the Brigade that is equipped with Bradleys is meant to have the T-55S, not Leopards but we know they do have Leopards.
Also, if the crews survive they can be re equipped with Leopards that are newly arrived as well.

There are videos of Russians running on foot across fields in retreat. Not sure how organised or disorganised that is, who knows when it comes to Russians.

The Error I got was connection failed when I tried to post the video, yes I am on .org. No I am not going to hack my computer to disable JS.

 >>/50402/
Hmm. Plus the Challengers and the Abrams.
If you use scriptblocking addons you can turn JS off for endchan. That helps with large files.

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Look like  >>/50385/ was abandoned.
This video says the tanks were abandoned and the second one seems to be this tank.

 >>/50402/
> the Brigade that is equipped with Bradleys is meant to have the T-55S, not Leopards but we know they do have Leopards.
They also could form a battle group, and use a Leo battalion as a detachment under the command of another unit. I'm not sure why would they do that.

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This is what Ukraine has taken back so far. Although the Russians have launched a counter attack and taken back Makarivka.

 >>/50406/
I think the probably just replaced the T55Ss with the Leopards. It made no sense to me why they would pair their best IFVs with their worst tanks.

Thinking about the big picture. Apparently Ukraine still has a lot of brigades in reserve, and presumably more than the Russians. Attacks so far might not go anywhere, but if they get the Russians to concentrate their attention on one part of the front and commit their reserves, this will open them to attacks elsewhere. It'll take a long time, though. No blitzkrieg to the Black Sea anytime soon.

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 >>/50407/
Then they had to replace the crew too, a T-55 driving loicence ain't a Leo2 one.

 >>/50409/
What Ukraine don't have is equipment, and lots of troops are in training. I think they should have soldiers under training in the West, it's not like they got trained some brigades and finished, it should go as a continuous cycle.
> get the Russians to concentrate their attention on one part of the front and commit their reserves
The Russians should have local reserves and strategic ones. And local local reserves. At this stage, when they are holding the forward positions, the outposts they probably launch counter-thrusts with the local local ones.
But I do agree it's dangerous to let forces pinned down at one are when Ukies can strike elsewhere. And I also don't know if they'll let it or not. Or it's avoidable at all.
> No blitzkrieg to the Black Sea anytime soon.
That is a pretty safe bet.

I was browsing militaryland's deployment and "operational sectors" map yesterday. Couple of things to note, probably not the most interesting ones, and perhaps not even important ones. But here we go.
Yesterday there was a mechanized grouping of 6 brigades north of the reservoir. Now only 2.
At Siversk there should be a strong grouping - I heard, but there is a hole. There a was strike from that direction towards Soledar, which was stopped. Militaryland notes a mountain brigade there or whatever.
At Velike Novosilka, towards the east that tank brigade wasn't there, but a bit further north behind the lines with that other one.

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Good weather: Russian advantage in the air (drones, choppers, airplanes)
Bad weather: no Russian advantage in the air

 >>/50407/
> I think the probably just replaced the T55Ss with the Leopards
HistoryLegends' latest offers some information on them, and supports your opinion.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=zp6pSHao23E

 >>/50411/
They should've started this during the rains, then. Mud wouldn't matter as much for a slow advance.

 >>/50413/
It rains time to times. Apparently when they made the advancements at Velike Novosilka it rained. Summer isn't that dry, storms happen regularly. The spring is muddy due to snow melting, they can have quite thick snow cover. Making tanks even slower for Russian artillery, drone strikes, ATGMs, helicopters is bad tactics.

Reporting from Ukraine. Pro-Ukrainian channel, less funny than Davydov. Racks up quite a lot of views.
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCcNB1tZYpeDetqCadElv9Ow

Real Reporter's interview with a soldier (supposedly not a "crisis actor") who had a convo with in a previous video half year ago.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=t-VUAeRMGQU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=t-VUAeRMGQU

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There are Syrians in the 98th Guards Airbourne Division.

Also, somebody put Naruto music over one of those videos of artillery strikes.

It's this OST.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=XYG_p8L1fDk

 >>/50418/
 >>/50419/
> There are Syrians in the 98th Guards Airbourne Division.
Just repaying the favour. They are at Bakhmut? Fighting along Wagner as usual.
Good chance the Russian army have bodies from the *stans too.
My main problem with all these war footage that they frequently add unnecessary music.

 >>/50420/
I'm not sure where they are.

Same, this is just drone footage though so it has no audio. It's much worse when they put it over things which actually have audio.

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 >>/50421/
They might be at Bakhmut. At least the Deepstate map places a regiment from that division there. Militaryland paints a different picture.
Were there more maps with unit placment?

Now that we are at Militaryland, the quesiton of the Leopard 2s. The 47th Mechanized Brigade (which has the Leos instead of the T-55s) differs from the other mechanized brigades in its unit composition. Besides the three mechanized battalions, and a tank battalion, it also includes an "assault battalion". What really is this, no info about it. Does it include more tanks? Or some different armoured vehicles, some heavy equipment?

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Lotsa blue disks today. I think Ukrainian Ministry of Defense started to get chatty and told about offensive action. I doubt these maps use the publications of Russian MoD.

Lull at Orikhov. Ukrainian attacks west of Donetsk - liveuamap shows as Russian attack, but we know better now.

New drama.
Some American lobbists pushing at Biden to make Ukraine join NATO for it will stop the war - so they think, or want make us believe they think that. Stoltenberg made statements that NATO is supporting the plan. This is obviously insane, even Northern Hungarian politicians said they'll veto this bs. Ofc for Stoltenberg it's easy to make such comments, since he knows very well, that couple of sane countries will veto the vote when it comes to that - so he can get some limelight and popularity among those who has know idea about anything and some Ukrainians.
I think we should vote yes just for the hilarity of it. GET THOSE NUKES FLYING!

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Another drama.
A Republican politician, not sure if senator or congressman gave a statement that they're blocking Hungary from buying HIMARS' until Hungary accepts Sweden into NATO.
Turns out in 2021 the Hungarian Defence Forces started to look into rocket artillery, looked into couple of options, one of them was the US made HIMARS system, in 2023 February some people on behalf of HDF visited there. As far as Hungarian media can know there is no deal on the table, I read Turkey's offer was considered seriously (which would make sense, we have good relations, most likely cheap solution, also Turkey is on the Road and Belt; the TRG-300 Tiger/Kasirga MLRS was battle tested in Nagarno-Kharabakh - problem is half the range of HIMARS; they would just rust away anyway).

Talk about delivering tactical nukes to Ukraine is started.
For now only radical voices, but it will get into mainstream media to sow the seed of acceptance in the public opinion. But will it? We'll see.

The Israelites are in talks with two nations, one a European nation, Regarding the potential sale of 200 Merkava tanks.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/06/19/israel-merkava-tank-europe/

There are numerous rumours surrounding this. Nothing concrete yet but the obvious connection is Ukraine. I have heard three stories, first is simply that they will be sold to a European country(Poland) and then handed from there to Ukraine, second is that they will be sold to Cyprus to replace soviet tanks in Cypriot service and those Soviet tanks will be given to the Ukrainians and the third story which is similar to the first is that the west plan to give Ukraine these tanks to prepare a new batch of troops for another offensive or to hold ground taken in this offensive.

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Taking this from another Bernd.
It's a footage of a T-55 packed full with explosive and an RC and sent towards Ukrainian lines. Got disabled upon a minefield, then shot with a AT grenade.

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NATO training is bad and insufficient...
NATO trainers have no experience in a war against an equal enemy. They have experience against insurgents, without artillery, air defense, air force, tanks, anything. They have experience in fighting from the position of power. They must have theoretical knowledge, but no practical one. So the training they give to Ukrainians is subpar.
The real significance in NATO training is that it can be done without the risk that a Russian rocket hits and kills a whole fucking company on spot. It is probably a learning experience for NATO on how to train large mass of troops in a relatively short period of time.

 >>/50448/
Israel don't sell stuff to Ukraine directly. Setting up proxies shouldn't be much problem.

 >>/50452/
It's hard to say, but this is not a new issue for them, the same thing happened with the Afghan forces they trained and the Iraqis and Saudis too.

I don't think that NATO doctrine and drill itself is bad or the issue, but I do wonder how much of that doctrine can be instilled in a fresh recruit who does not speak your language and is only being trained for a month or two. 
And there is the nature of the recruit themselves, these are not recruited by a NATO army through their own recruitment process and they are not NATO soldiers, a NATO instructor is sent whoever he is send and he probably is not allowed to turn them back or fail them.

I doubt they are getting proper NATO training, instead they are getting an abridged and simplified version which they may or may not pick up due to the language barrier and quality of the individual recruit himself.

 >>/50454/
> And there is the nature of the recruit themselves, these are not recruited by a NATO army through their own recruitment process and they are not NATO soldiers
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=MIYGFSONKbk

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Quote from ISW's Assesment from June 18th
Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to reevaluate their tactics for future operations. Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an offensive over the next seven days.”[7]The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command reexamines tactics.[8] These reports are consistent with ISW’s recent observations of the scale and approach of localized Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern Ukraine.[9] ISW has previously noted that Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort.[10] Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

Liveuamap shows some attacks on behalf of AFU, so they haven't halted, they curbed the volume down (as Wall Street Journal was quoted).
NATO observers clearly see that things aren't going well, probably they go very badly. But they also note rightly that most of the prepared brigades aren't doing anything.
Anyway Ukraine tried to form armoured columns, ended with heavy losses. Then tried infantry on foot, ended with heavy losses. They did some decent maneuvering and flanking south of Velike Novosilka, but they suffered high losses.
They really need air cover and air defense. And even then the go still might remain very bumpy.

I was musing what'll happen on the long run, when they destroy all the foliage, all the tree and bush covers from their positions. Will it look like WWI with trenches running parallel with a nomansland in between?

 >>/50464/
> Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings
I agree, but that generally happens when they have achieved their objective and have the breathing room to reorganise and such.
The Ukrainians did not breach any of the defensive lines so I don't see this as a normal pause in operations but as a failure in their offensive. I don't think this marks the end of the offensive but it does not look good for them.

At the same time the British MOD has said in their report that the Russians are moving forces from the Dniper to Zaporyia and Bahkmut and it has even been said that they are renewing offensive actions in Northern Luhansk(not sure how true this is, if they are it seems to be minor so far).

I think airpower is overrated in this case. The Russians are fairly limited in what they can do with it as well so it's not a decisive factor in the war. It's just a supporting element like anything else and something that artillery and Himars can also do as well anyway. Well they can sling missiles at Kiev which other systems can't really do as well but that's strategic not operations and it's not really achieving much.

> The latest propaganda from Kiev suggests that the Ukrainian offensive will go on an "operational pause" while the NATO generals in their offices in Brussels "rethink" their strategy over a coffee and a pretzel/donut. They are worried that the Ukrainian army will not last very long at this attrition rate.

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Trying to calculate/guess how many troops are participating in the fight directly on behalf of the Ukrainians at the three active sectors of the Zaporyozhia. 

A. Kamyanska
- 130th Reconnaissance Battalion
- 128th Mountain Assault Brigade
And perhaps 8th Separate Battalion Aratta which is an intelligence unit, so not sure they count anyway.

B. Orikhov
- 118th Mechanized Brigade
- 47th Mechanized Brigade
And perhaps 11th Brigade of Ukrainian National Guard.

C. Velyka Novosilka
From the West:
- 74th Reconnaissance Battalion
Probably 23rd Mechanized Brigade, and
probably 3rd Tank Brigade
Towards South:
- 35th Marine Brigade
- 129th Territorial Defense Brigade
And perhaps 128th Territorial Defense Brigade
And perhaps 31st Mechanized Brigade
And perhaps Airborne Battalion, 25th Airborne Brigade
- 68th Jager Brigade
- 4th Tank Brigade
- 37th Marine Brigade

Soooo.
That's 8 brigades and couple of battalions pocket change, for sure.
Then 2 more brigades probably.
And 3 more brigades, and couple of battalions pocket change.
So about 13-14 brigades (if I group the battalions together).
But I'm just guessing which units are involved and many more are nearby and they could participate earlier, or just parts of them.
I'm not sure I want to count the artillery units there, although it's sure they are there to give support.
Anyway, one brigade is about 2000-4000 troop strong I think. But even on paper it can vary, in practice they are always less in a war than on paper. So let's say 3000 troops (I think the prepared brigades consist of ~3500 men, but tank brigades are less for sure*, and probably territorials too).
That's 24-42000 soldiers. Can this be right?

*Forbes article from 2022 Dec. says ~2000 are in the 1st Tank Brigade
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/12/25/how-ukraines-1st-tank-brigade-fought-a-russian-force-ten-times-its-size-and-won/

 >>/50466/
Air force isn't just fighter jets though. Or the big bombers. Air force also the helicopters destroying targets from 5-10 kms away. Or transporting stuff and people. Russians can move more or less freely in the air over their zone of control.

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Found this in historylegends video. Not sure where he got the data but he spends more time on this than me.
Marine Brigade: ~2000 troops
Territorial Defense Brigade: ~3500 troops
And adding the info from the Forbes article:
Tank Brigade: ~2000 troops
It is said that the Ukrainians organized 40000 troops into 12 divisions for the offensive (the 9 NATO and 3 home trained), one of them the 47th Mechanized Brigade. ~40000 / 12 = 3300-3500 soldiers.

So, no operational pause for now. AFU attacks everywhere. According to dunno who. Perhaps Russian MoD.

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 >>/50483/
Seems that way, a new bunch of Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles showed up, including this which they say is a MARS II MLRS, there is also a destroyed tank they call a Leopard but it's not. It also seems like the Ukrainians are either attacking or counter attacking in northern Luhansk.

Also, Russians are attacking in Both the North towards Lyman and in the South in Zaporyia. The first video is the Ukrainians repelling a Russian attack in the North, the second is of them repelling(?) a Russian attack in the south. It seems the Russians are taking some ground in the North and may have taken back some ground in the South as well.
The Reason I questioned if the southern attack was actually repelled is because that was at Piathkhakny, which the Russians apparently are in control of now.

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Cope of the day: picrel #1. At least it goes well for the Ukrainians on map.

Here's an good article by Royal United Services Institute:
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraines-counteroffensive-begins-shall-leopards-break-free
Written a week ago. Still true. Which is bad news for Ukraine.

While I was trying to look up brigade organization info and charts, I found this article on the same website:
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraines-territorial-defence-forces-war-so-far-and-future-prospects
> Estimates produced prior to 24 February 2022 suggested the TDF would be able to engage as many as 130,000 people (25 brigades of 150 battalions)
> 25 brigades of 150 battalions
Which is 6 battalions per brigade in the Territorial Defense Brigades, as Historylegends says  >>/50476/
After a while I thought it would be the easiest just to look at Militaryland's db about the units, and check their composition. There is nothing about the TDBs. Or I just did not search hard enough. So essentially I have this one source above about this.
I also found that TDBs are seriously lacking in equipment, they are little more than pure infantry formations, with some ATGMs. And since quite a few mechanized brigades formed earlier this year, the heavy weaponry had to go to those units.
So besides the infantry/rifle battalions they have (most likely neither motorized), each brigade has to have an HQ, and some form of medical, communication, and logistical units (companies perhaps). No artillery (perhaps each rifle battalion has a light mortar squad or two), no recon, no chemical and nuke warfare unit, or some fancy stuff like UAVs (unless they buy their own).
I also believe that some TBDs are better equipped and more formidable than others.

 >>/50490/
> Piathkhakny
High ground both north and south of the village. It's comfortable for both side to just shoot into the settlement, and push out the one who has it. I heard the village change hands several times now. But eventually Ukrainians have try advancing further. Which will suck ofc, bad news for Ukraine again.

Prigozhin has been getting more and more scathing of the government.

> The Ministry of Defense is deceiving the public and telling the story that there was aggression on the part of Ukraine for 8 years, and they were going to attack us together with all of NATO. Ukraine did not attack the civilian population, only the positions of the Russian army

> No one killed 60 leopards, this is complete total nonsense, now the Russian army is retreating in the Zaporozhye, Kherson directions, - Prigozhin.
> The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pushing through the Russian army, we are washing ourselves with blood, no one gives reserves, there is no control.
> Zelensky, when he became president, was ready for agreements. All that had to be done was to get down from Mount Olympus, go and negotiate with him, 
> What was the war for? The war was needed for Shoigu to receive a 'hero star'. The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war. The war was needed to install Medvedchuk as president of Ukraine.

I predict that he is going to fall out of a window or brutally stab himself to death while shaving in not long.
The Russian government has been trying to make third party militants sign contracts with the RU MOD, the Chechens have but Prigozhin kicked up a fuss about it and I don't think Wagner has yet.

 >>/50501/
Who sees his rants? If Russians that's a problem, if the Western audience then everything 100% a-okay.
I think all the NAFO bots watch these and come to the wrong consequences.

 >>/50502/
I saw this posted By Denys Davydov on his telegram(I don't follow him on Youtube), also other Ukrainian channels are posting about it too. Pro Russian channels are not posting about this latest rant but they have mentioned others and they are the ones talking about this contract issue.
But this is Telegram, your average Russian isn't go to know about it unless it comes up on the news.

 >>/50491/
> So besides the infantry/rifle battalions they have (most likely neither motorized)
Is there such a thing as a non-motorized military unit in a motorized society? It's always possible to requisition civilian vehicles.
> I also found that TDBs are seriously lacking in equipment, they are little more than pure infantry formations, with some ATGMs
So do they try to cram more infantry per kilometer of frontline, or do they rotate battalions more often?

 >>/50503/
Another reason why Prigo say these stuff, why he is so critical towards Russian govt. and military, he might tries to emphasize that his organization is a private military company, not an extension of Moscow, and available for (almost) any country to have contract with.

 >>/50504/
> Is there such a thing as a non-motorized military unit
Well the militaryland deployment map uses the "light infantry" icon for TDBs and not "motorized" or even "rifle" icon (these are used on the brigade composition page at certain units where it's appropriate).
> So do they try to cram more infantry per kilometer of frontline, or do they rotate battalions more often?
It seems they were mostly used as anchors to hold trenches and replace heavier units in this role, so those can go elsewhere and do more useful things. How the rotation is done I have no idea, did not really see any info on that, I did not looking for it either.

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Wagner is staging a coup...

They posted a video showing the aftermath of a Wagner base hit by Russian rockets or they claim that is what it was anyway and now they are going in Russia from Ukraine and are in Rostov right now. They have come with heavy equipment including tanks as well.

Prigozhin said this 
> Shoigu will be hanged on Red Square and will lie down in the mausoleum with Lenin – All patriots of Russia, real patriots of the country who know history, and not fans of a weak government that betrayed the interests of the state, take to the streets, we will find weapons. Tonight, we will solve the issue of traitors and criminals who have disgraced #Russia. Their names are Shoigu and Gerasimov

Somebody said this looked like it was pre-recorded just like they say the missile attack might be fake, so this might all be pre-planned.

As I said, they are in Rostov, this video is of Wagner soldiers at the outside of the Headquarters of the Southern Military district but they have also cordoned off other important buildings in Rostov too.

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Here is the same building from another angle in which you can see heavy equipment.

 >>/50507/
> staging a coup
> in Rostov
They are in the wrong place to stage a coup.

 >>/50509/
Silly Prigozhin

 >>/50510/
I bet it's for new recruitment ad.

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> “By taking Rostov military headquarters, this is the command centre that is in charge of what Russia calls the special operation in Ukraine, the Wagner chief is currently in charge of the war in Ukraine. This is very big,” Hashem said.
Hilarious. Machiavelli was right all along.
Prigo ofc never speaks against Putin himself. He was his chef or whatever, he gained his wealth because of him. And moving to Rostov instead of Moscow... Perhaps Shoigu was in Rostov?

> Zelenskyy [...] describing the actions of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin as a “counter-terrorist operation”.
Kek.

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This is interesting.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=6PGALD_82cM

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From same youtube channel (Michael Rossi Poli Sci):
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=dYvW4egUESI

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And Putin's speech in telly. ML translated, picked up on Kohl.

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So.
TschVK Wagner's camp got attacked with rockets by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF/AFRF/RAF whatever) on behalf of Shoigu Minister of Defence and Gerasimov Chief of the General Staff, both staying in Rostov.
This wasn't the first attack, earlier that drunk lieutenant colonel opened fire on them, and perhaps there was another before that. Furthermore Prigozhin continuously complained about the treatment Wagner got, for example the lack of support, ammo provided by the Russian MoD.
After the attack I have no doubt the top ranking members of the TschVK discussed what to do about it, what are their options, possibilities and outlooks about the future. I do not believe the further steps was initiated by Prigozhin alone. I also think they already have the thoughts going for months now, and they also have the agreement of the lower ranks. Since they let the prisoners go, they only have the crew who signed up entirely volunteerly. However many guys are probably new in the sense that they were not there in earlier contracts. But the roles in officers and all key positions are held by old veterans, brothers in arms and crime.
So now they decided to occupy the command and control center in Rostov, it seems they have Gerasimov, but Shoigu fled by helicopter. Now they are on the move to north, to Moscow it seems. At this point they had some action in Voronezh and perhaps they also take over the command and control center. At least there are some news about this.
Other tidbits:
Prigozhin said  >>/50513/ they are 25.000 strong.
Prigozhin did not verbally attacked Putin.
Gen. Surovikin (commander of the spec. mil. operation) warned Wagner to follow the commands the supreme Commander in Chief (Putin).

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What could happen? What they want? And other questions.
We can state that they have a better view on the military situation of the Russian Federation than we have. They know better what units and forced can be alerted and moved against them.
I think most if not all mobilizable units are tied down in the conflict in Ukraine, mostly conscripts are elsewhere and they can't be placed in alert in this short notice in any meaningful number. Around Moscow they bound to have a relatively strong force, which shouldn't be all conscripts. But what this "relatively" cover, I have no idea.
TschVK Wagner moves quick. They took over in Rostov at ~8-9:00 Moscow Standard Time (5:00 UTC), and then took over Voronezh by ~10-11:00 MSK . That's 500 kms as the crow flies, wtf. With this rate they should be at St Pidorsburg right now.
Oh well.

Let's say they get Shoigu and Gerasimov. Then what?
Putin renounced them - but can they be stopped, put down before they do whatever they do?
If they coup Putin?
Prigozhin said all the state machine will work as usual, so perhaps they want to swap faces in the ranks, and internally this shouldn't mean turmoil if done quick.
But will there be any international recognition? Ukraine and the West surely welcome a new regime that's willing to finish an leave everything behind. But would Prihozhin's regime do that? And if not and continue the war, would it have the relationship with other important factors like China, Iran, or India? And even if willing to make peace on the terms of Ukraine and the West would they took it seriously?
It could be a wise move to leave Putin as President, for it will allow legitimization - he is an elected leader of the RF. But could they pull this after the renouncement?

This will be very interesting to see. If the whole thing is not a scam, a media hack.

 >>/50513/
 >>/50514/
Listening to Weeb Union's video now:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=rbtFO1GvJmQ
and thinking.
These videos were posted 10-11 hours ago. Basically on June 23rd at midnight. So the action against their camp happened before that, on the eve of June 23rd, and things spiraling out since then. They had about 10 hours to start their operation, going towards Rostov and Voronezh, perhaps Moscow.
Wagner has been resting now for three weeks. This was about the time that was promised them to rest after they captured Bakhmut. Maybe promised is a strong word, but something the like was said in one of the videos.
Weeb Union suggests it's a diversion and they are relocated on a new front, perhaps at Rostov, which was mentioned by Prigo earlier. To be honest would be a good and cheeky (breeky) cover for troop movements, which are cannot be concealed in any way. But then whom they deceive? Ukrainian/NATO military intelligence? I highly doubt it. Just the public, like us. What's the profit in that?

 >>/50516/
Did they get Gerasimov? If so whatever happens he probably won't live through this.

 >>/50519/
I can't cite source, I looked up bunch of stuff all over, but that was my impression.

 >>/50517/
> Prigozhin said all the state machine will work as usual, so perhaps they want to swap faces in the ranks, and internally this shouldn't mean turmoil if done quick.

Look like it, if Prigozhin was working with the west he could easily have acted to sabotage the Russian war effort considering how important Rostov is for that.
Though if this goes for very long that could happen anyway, particularly if thinks go very badly for Prigozhin and he decides to make a deal with the west for support.
Either way, the Ukrainians and the west will be watching this closely.

You would think they would have to keep Putin to reduce the risk of Russia falling apart if they were successful.

Something else to think about. Where are Russia's Nukes and could Prigozhin get access to one? If he did could he or would he use it?

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I'm glad that a least one of the world's leaders is level headed and coordinates the effort for peace and security.

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Now this shit is funny.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba say says the west has false neutrality in the conflict.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán said the same thing over and over, that those who pay for the war, send weapons and ammunition, train soldiers, give military intel, etc. are in the war already no matter what they lie.
Have Ukrainian and Hungarian governments said the same all along?

 >>/50521/
> if Prigozhin was working with the west
US just found $6,5 billion error in their accounting which they can spend wisely.

Btw large NATO military air exercise should take part these days, perhaps in Polan. Coincidence?

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Listening DPA about the "super special military operation"
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=T7E-Mv7yUm4
He says the Wagner camp/HQ was in Lugansk, perhaps towards north. So they could reach Voronezh not that long after they were done in Rostov.
They also hold Donetsk somehow. I'm breddy sure they have more than one camps.

The Chechens are on their way to Rostov.

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Full video of Putin's speech from here:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=U9g8x8cQjjY
He doesn't explicitly saying that TschVK Wagner is rebelling. Maybe he means those who attacked Wagner...
And ofc, if Wagner is the one that has to be put down, that's a considerable experienced fighting force Russia still needs, and put into use after the leaders' heda are chopped off.
Or perhaps he expressed himself vaguely on purpose. There could be competing groups (Prigo vs. Shoigu) and he waits and sees who is winning first. Then the loser will become the real culprit of the mutiny.
Is there a video somewhere Prigozhin replying?

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This is just an insane tin hat theory but, if Prigozhin was to work with Ukraine he could probably cut the Russians off in Ukraine. All of their communication lines are in reach.

Ukraine is launching an offensive but has not committed their reserves and we don't know for sure where they are or what else they have available, they could have intended to put pressure on the south and draw Russian forces to that direction in order for them to pull of a sudden northern attack in coordination with Prigozhin, one could then say that those previous recons into Belgorod were connected to this.

Though of course we have not seen anything to indicate this yet, but it's a thought.

 >>/50529/
I think Russians have stockpiled considerable amount of resources which could last a while within that zone so if that's the case short term effect would be questionable.
But if Wagner could hold that line, the main junctions at least, a push along your blue arrows could be effective making the hold of positions unmanageable, and then cause the withdrawal of troops to consolidate the situation within Russia proper.
One lifeline is still there, via Kerch.

 >>/50530/
Yes, it would depend on what stockpiles they have but also what reserves they have available to throw at Wagner without compromising the front line. But if they link up with the Ukrainians Wagner could receive reinforcements that way.
Kerch straight bridge is an issue but they might be able to deal with it, the Ukrainians have taken it down before and now they have Storm Shadow missiles. And even if they didn't it still would funnel all their communications and mean communications have to be diverted and things would take longer to move around.

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Uh, oh. Knock knock.

 >>/50531/
Yeah, I concur.

The 217th Guards Airbourne regiment apparently changed sides.

Also the Kalinovsky Regiment(Belorussians fighting for Ukraine) asked for the Belorussians to join self defence units and wait for their signal. Though both them and the Russian legion talk such nonsense all the time.

 >>/50532/
It's a reverse Kiev.

 >>/50533/
> changed sides.
To witch side?
> reverse Kiev.
Just faster.
I wonder if roadblocks are there to keep the way open for Wagner.
In an hour they can reach Moscow itself now. Things should speed up. We're gonna hear about either clashes or more units siding with Wagner.
We talked about coups on this board (Brbernd where art thou?), right now all the officers are mulling over whom they should side with. Most will pick passivity, and that could be enough for Prigo and his commanders.

 >>/polru/244120/
Lel.

This could be a major event, that shakes up things, shifts balance. It could be a nothingburger.
In any way the cost for those who are participating can be the ultimate.
It is also the most interesting thing in the 21st century yet. The last time I was similarly excited (actually I was more then) was in 2006, when there was big turmoil after a speech of our PM Gyurcsány.

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What? They stopped because Lukashenko and Prigo had a phone chat?
Coups don't work like this!
Will they just laugh it off that it was a big misunderstanding?

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This is silly.

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Biggest advance of the fugging war.

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https://yewtu.be/watch?v=pQXyT9Dk2UQ
> They were going to dismantle TschVK Wagner
So not anymore?
What will be the aftermath? What will happen with Prigozhin personally?

Obiously it wasn't Lukashenko who made the deal, was just offered through him, since he can be considered objective 3rd party.
Weeb Union says they were offered more money.
Now that most of Wagner is out of the occupied areas? Where they'll be redeployed?
Also I saw Prigozhin got quoted that they had 25K and 25K soldiers. That's about 10K more Ukraine had prepared for the offensive.

 >>/50536/
I have my doubts Prigozhin's original intention was to overthrow Putin. Maybe he just wanted concessions from the military brass. His original speech didn't attack Putin. Putin avoiding a direct mention of Wagner  >>/50528/ was also noteworthy. Some will speculate all of this was Putin's 4D chess so the peace deal with Wagner can let him get rid of other enemies. I wouldn't believe it because the entire incident undermines his authority and sets a precedent.


I'm kind of disappointed.

 >>/50541/
> Some will speculate all of this was Putin's 4D chess so the peace deal with Wagner can let him get rid of other enemies.
I heard gossip about sacking Shoigu and Gerasimov.
> I'm kind of disappointed.
Me too.
On the other hand Wagner going back to the front, 50K strong, I suppose they won't be there to hold the line.

Analyzing this as a coup, there are major questions to be made. What is the significance of this timing, during the Ukrainian summer offensive? Did they plan it for before the offensive, but had to delay it? Or did they expect a successful offensive, which would demoralize loyalists, but had to launch it anyways even though Ukraine hasn't made any relevant gains?

How many allies outside of Wagner did Prigozhin coordinate with before the uprising, and how much support/passive indifference did he accrue during his march on Moscow? They got halfway from Rostov to the capital in a day, that's a lot of ground, and it seems the only resistance faced was a few aerial attacks. And yet Prigozhin bailing out suggests he expected to lose. Either that or he was offered a good deal.

 >>/50540/
Maybe but maybe not. Lukashenko is still president of one of a handful of countries that Russia is close too and they know each other quite well, I think if Lukashenko suggested this Putin would not spit in his face and turn it down.

 >>/50541/
I don't know how clever Prigozhin actually is, maybe he really is just dumb enough to think that if he caused a commotion like this Putin would step in and remove Shoigu and Gerasimov.

 >>/50543/
It's interesting to note that Prigozhin had been fairly defeatist about the Ukrainian offensive, he seemed to think it was going worse for Russia and better for Ukraine than the Ukrainians and the west actually did.

So then either, this was just a lie and part of his smear campaign on Shoigu.
Or, he did actually believe this, yet choose to stage a coup despite that anyway.

 >>/50544/
Luka can't promise anything in the name of the Russian Federation on his own.

 >>/50545/
> fairly defeatist about the Ukrainian offensive,
One thing that isn't told enough - with the exception of Colonel Reisner of the Österreichs Bundesheer - underestimating the enemy can be fatal. All these voices on the internet on both sides (but especially true about the pro-ukrainians) that produces those "the other side weak!" type of comments and magnifying minor shortcomings are dangerous.

 >>/50543/
> Analyzing this as a coup,
I can pretend it was for you. But right at the first question things will be derailed.
> What is the significance of this timing, during the Ukrainian summer offensive? Did they plan it for before the offensive, but had to delay it?
They were on the front, in heavy fighting in Bakhmut until about May 21-22. Then they started to pull out allowing other units to take their place. I dunno how long this process take, and then they went to RnR. They rested, reorganized, filled ranks and ammo stores, repaired vehicles etc. This also took time. Basically a month passed. I think enough time to reach battle readiness. Is this the minimum time? I dunno, but it's time to go back to the front.
And for this the leadership entered negotiations about further employment. When it started? I dunno, perhaps on day one. Those who make the deals rarely need much rest after a tiring day of battle.
So the timing of the action has lot to do about getting restless. 50000 soldiers not doing actual soldiering just drinking whoring and maintaining equipment is not good for anyone.

 >>/50543/
 >>/50547/
> Or did they expect a successful offensive
I don't think so. They know Russian fortified positions better, and generally the situation what's it like there and what can be expected.
The good thing about the Ukrainian offensive, and what they made use of is that combat ready Russian units are tied down in Ukraine and busy to keep the situation as is, even those in reserve can't really make a move, since they might be needed on the front any time. Those men who are willing to fight are there.

> How many allies outside of Wagner did Prigozhin coordinate with before the uprising
Still supposing this was a coup attempt it was not for the sake of a brain game (I don't want to call it gymnastics for it's implication) the simple answer is: we don't know, no information about that. I think he contacted Putin, they probably have their own landline used between each other when they do their deals, no need for official channels. But if you mean other units? They sure planned their route, and contacted those they are going - or at least Prigo and couple other guys rolled forward in a car before the column arrived and told. I don't think there was any surprises.
It is no use to contact generals of units holding the front, they are bogged down, or those that weren't in the way.
Then Prigo went public asking everyone to join generally.
> how much support/passive indifference did he accrue during his march on Moscow?
I dunno if we'll ever get any info about this. He  >>/50533/ mentions the 217th guards airbourne regiment, and I also saw the VDV getting mentioned here: https://yewtu.be/watch?v=rylvYmIyLBE at about 10:00. So that's one unit.

> They got halfway from Rostov to the capital in a day, that's a lot of ground
I think they split into two, one group to Rostov, one towards Moscow (via Voronezh). They started on the eve of June 23rd, perhaps midnight the latest.
> the only resistance faced was a few aerial attacks
I dunno if there were real aerial attacks. I saw one video a helicopter shooting fireworks, but no actual explosions or anything. So maybe those were just distractions than actual fights. It was said somewhere Wagner lost no man.

 >>/50543/
> And yet Prigozhin bailing out
Did he really?
Here I have to stop pretending this was a coup.
I read in the news, it is written all around, that he is "moving"/"retiring" to Belarus, they giving him "safety" and whatever.
But perhaps they take his company with him and the next offensive of the Wagner will be from Belarus.
There is simply too little information out there.
What happens with Wagner? News also say those who participated (how many? Prigo says 25K and 25K so all of em) won't be punished, those who did not will be offered contracts by Russian MoD. Prigo said they wanted to dismantle Wagner this is why it started.
Now we have a situation where some of them (how many? majority? or negligible minority? did they act together - even if not all of them was on the move to moscow - or not? there were those who secured Donetsk for example, or those who still held the camps they have) are offered contracts, but others (while they will be unpunished) don't. The latter group still is a fighting force with considerable experience. They have capable commanders and officers. More capable than the Russian army ones.
And there is the rest of the Wagner doing contract jobs all around the world, for example still deployed in Syria doing whatever next to other Russian units.
So does TscVK Wagner still exist and will? Perhaps another contract was made with Wagner. Russian MoD don't have to make contract with those who participated this way and still keep them fighting. Those have contract with Wanger and Wagner has contract with Russian govt.
And the rest who don't want to stay in the employment of Wagner still can sight up with MoD and get a different assignment in a different unit.
We know too little for now.

Some think this wasn't the performance, but a rehearsal before the play.

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Denys Davydov gathered interesting info about the "coup":
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=Jh-mwPMMQPg
Basically Shoigu and Gerasimov wanted Prigo to be done. Prigo tried to contact Putin but he failed, so he launched this habbening, which apparently got Putin's attention. Prigo was able to save his life (unless "went to Belarus" is an idiom in Russian and means getting whacked).
Shoigu is getting dismissed, the replacement will be Aleksey Dyumin the governor of Tula Oblast who was the chief of the Special Operations Forces and oversaw the annexation of Crimea - Wikipee says - then he was Deputy MoD, so  he should have the necessary XP for the job, and since the role of TschVK Wagner in the occupation of Crimea, he also must have working experience with them.
Prigo and Dyumin had a chat during the Most Extremely Special Military Operation of last Saturday.

 >>/50551/
It's possible I guess. Shoigu was filmed touring the front today though.

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 >>/50550/
Yes I heard that too. I thought it was just Prigozhin being sent to Belarus but apparently they are building a camp there for 8000 Wagners. Is that enough though?
I think they have a chance to achieve something if the movement is a ruse and they attack Khakov or Sumy or Chernihiv while they pass, but once in Belarus I think they won't be able to do anything serious by themselves, though how many Russian units are still in Belarus?

Wagner operations in Africa continue as usual.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/06/26/wagner-mali-central-africa-operations/

I expected that but some people(Peter Zeihan) thought that Russia was going to cut them off and Russia's whole position in Africa would disappear overnight.

I really hate that all the media giants never actually present people's own words. They should make the whole thing available (with translation when it's a foreigner), and publish excerpts of the key points.
For example I wanna watch the whole video of Prigozhin speaking with subtitles. Yeah, it's available on Telegram, but what if no Telegram or don't want Telegram, or whatever.
Anyway here's Al Jizzair article:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/27/in-his-own-words-wagner-chief-prigozhin-on-the-moscow-mutiny
Am gonna quote the quotes. No green arrows.

Reasons
“As a result of intrigues and ill-considered decisions, this unit [Wagner] was supposed to cease to exist on July 1.”
“The council of [Wagner] commanders gathered, which brought all the information to the fighters, and no one agreed to sign a contract with the [Russian] ministry of defence, as everyone knows perfectly well… that this would have led to a complete loss of combat capability.”
“Experienced fighters, experienced commanders would simply be smashed and turned into meat; they would not be able to use their combat potential and combat experience.”
“Those fighters who decided that they were ready to transfer to the Ministry of Defence did transfer, but this was a small amount of 1-2 percent.”
“The decision to transfer [Wagner] to the defence ministry was taken at the most inopportune moment.”

Rostov
“We were taking inventory and were going to leave on June 30 in a column to Rostov and publicly hand over the equipment near the headquarters of the SVO [acronym for Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine] if there was no solution.”
“Despite the fact that we did not show any aggression, a missile strike was launched on us and immediately after that the helicopters worked on us. About 30 fighters of the Wagner PMC (private military company) were killed, some were injured.”
“This was the trigger for… the [Wagner] Council of Commanders deciding that we should start moving immediately.”

March to Moscow
“The aim was to prevent the destruction of the PMC and to bring to justice those people who made a huge number of mistakes during their unprofessional actions. This was demanded by the public, all the servicemen who saw us during the march supported us.”
“During the entire march, which lasted 24 hours, one column went to Rostov; the other, in the direction of Moscow. During a day, we travelled 780km [484 miles] to within just 200km [124 miles] of Moscow.”
“Not a single soldier on the ground was killed. We regret that we had to strike at aviation but they hurled bombs [at us] and launched missile strikes.”
“We blocked all military units and airfields that were in our path.”
“When we walked past Russian cities on June 23-24, civilians greeted us with Russian flags and with the emblems and flags of the Wagner PMC. They were all happy when we passed by. Many of them are still writing words of support and some are disappointed that we stopped, because in the ‘march of justice’, in addition to our struggle for existence, they saw support for the fight against bureaucracy and other ills that exist in our country today.”
“We started our march because of injustice. On the way, we didn’t kill a single soldier on the ground. In one day, they reached a point just 200km from Moscow [and] they took complete control of the city of Rostov.”
“We gave a master class on how it should have been done on February 24, 2022 [when Russia invaded Ukraine]. We did not have the goal of overthrowing the existing regime and the legally elected government.”

Why Wagner stopped
“We turned around not to shed the blood of Russian soldiers.”
“We stopped at the moment when the first assault detachment, which came to 200km from Moscow, deployed its artillery, did a reconnaissance of the area and it became obvious that a lot of blood would be shed at that moment.”
“Therefore, we felt that demonstrating what we were going to do was enough.”
“And our decision to turn around was based on two important factors. The first factor is that we did not want to shed Russian blood. The second factor is that we were registering our protest and not seeking to overthrow the government of the country.”
“At this time, [Belarusian President] Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the further work of the Wagner PMC within a legal jurisdiction.”
“Our ‘march of justice’ highlighted a lot of the things we have talked about before – the most serious security problems throughout the country.”

 >>/50552/
Another thing we have to wait and see.

 >>/50553/
> they are building a camp there for 8000 Wagners.
Perhaps it's for Belarusian volunteers. They can't volunteer for Russian MoD, since technically they are foreigners me thinks, but they could for Wagner.
This also doesn't mean they'll be deployed in an attack from Belarus.
Ukraine keeping more troops at the border, or at least in reserves (and not sent to the south to fight) is also comes with the possibility.

 >>/50555/
It's interesting to see that Prigozhin is still criticising the government and actually standing by his actions, not apologising for them.
Putin has not forgiven Prigozhin either it seems, he gave a speech last night attacking the organisers of the rebellion.
This almost doesn't seem resolved. Though Wagner are in exile I guess. 

Putin also said that Wagner fighters were given a choice of either sigh a contract with the MoD, go home or go to Belorussia and then  >>/50558/ Lukashenko 'offered solutions for work of the PMC within a legal Jurisdiction'.

What does that mean? It almost sounds like Wagner will continue their work overseas but be based out of Belorussia instead, or maybe they will still fight in Ukraine? Wagner being a 'Belorussian' PMC would troll the west at least.

 >>/50559/
Maybe, that makes sense. It might be a way to get Belarus involved by proxy, both through that but also Belarus could provide Wagner with supplies and ammunition instead of the Russians having too.

Heh, NFKRZ made a video about this uh coupy event.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=XKJ0dCIOPsM
He raises couple of good points. Such as:
> Wagner is pro-war, they want to ramp up things ("where is the ammunition")
> current regime created an imperialistic chauvinist group within the society which is more radical than the current regime

 >>/50563/
Whilst a while ago he did say that Russia should be fully mobilising, Prigozhin has also said the war was unnecessary, that the only reason it happened was because of Shoigu and that because of that Shoigu has killed thousands of Russians.

I would not say that he actually is pro-war or that he does want it to continue, he could really go either way and the only person that probably knows what he wants is himself and his inner circle.

 >>/50553/
Historylegends
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=7PyQnjeJXtM
states here that Wagner was about 8000 at Soledar.
Then towards the end of the video he says "the Wagner core was not entirely disbanded". Perhaps he is right, and the originals (what's left of 'em) are kept, and they'll be moved to that camp.
There are other stuff too.

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Liveuamap is getting more useless by the day. Sure those areas will be captured, but weeks could go on until they do. I really don't like it.

In Hungarian article I read The New York Times published an article where they conclude that the sanctions aren't as effective as they thought who would have thought, and the sanctioned goods reach Russia via 3rd parties, like the Central Asian *stans.
I can't find the article, but here's a paper that analyze just this issue.
I find the second graph very interesting
> Total imports from Russia less impacted by the relatively low indirect imports
It shows that in direct imports there was a hike from 2020 May to 2022 March, a huge hike, then it was dropped back till 2022 December, but still did not reach the level of 2020 May. I wonder what was imported from Russia in those two years.
Before that there was also a break at 2020 February. Is it about gas and oil? Because Russia is basically a big gas station. At the beginning of 2020 the price of oil reached rock bottom, well below rock bottom. They stopped buying it? Russia stopped selling it? I dunno.
The next two graphs are actually funny. Hungary baed, mkay. t. Germany

After listening bunch of videos and checking out all the maps I can say the Ukrainian offensive is going well. And by "well" I mean they are able to take lands, and even positions that have operational importance. Like at Kurdiumovka south of Bakhmut, they managed to cross the canal and take positions in the town. That's a bridgehead they could intentionally expand from.
But will they? I dunno. They pay the price and if they melt like snow the offensive(s) will halt. It's a shame we don't get any real information about the losses. I'm curious where is the limit which breaks a campaign. I think it's reasonable to say they'll push as hard as they can until the NATO summit on July 11-12.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212667.htm
After that? Who knows.

I also came across this channel of Vlad Vexler. He seems to say interesting stuff, I have to give a proper listen still: He has a main channel, I have not looked at it yet.
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCn7XHZiW6EUgSuxItybLLMg
https://yewtu.be/channel/UC6-33VO9eerq9MXFaivi0gg

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Most level headed and accurate analysis about the Wagner coup/mutiny/whatever. Done by a HoI4 youtuber, who got his info from dailymail. I'm impressed.

How differently an event can be interpreted from the same point of view at least from the same camp.
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=5680U8ZQVMk
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/29/failed-wagner-coup-vladimir-putin-regime-strong-yevgeny-prighozin
I watched enough Vlad Vexler to know now, that he views Putin some kind of insane dictator - which is easy to do, and many emotionally involved and biased do. Sure he is an autocrat, and sure probably has it's own psychological profile, but he is not irrational, and/or stupid, and/or illiterate. It is common to view autocrats like that. For one reason to make fun of them, because on those we laugh at, we fear less. Like Hitler. But this leads far from topic.
So in the article there is an interesting analogy with monarchies of feudal kingdoms. And considering even the communist dictatorship was organized feudalistic "vassal owes fealty to the senior" basis, and I think the current hierarchy of the Russian governance too, it could be a spot on parallel.

Btw, Vlad V has an interesting editing style, he edits here and there just one frame, and they are just a flash for the eye. Like Fight Club dickpics, except these are related to topic. For example linked video at 3:01 there is literally one frame of Prigo holding Russian flag in front of couple of solders.

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Poor Leopards...

 >>/50584/
Yeah, all those dirty Slavs pawing them.

 >>/50564/
What I gathered recently is that Putin's opposition aren't the liberals, but a more radical group, basically the Z people, Russian imperialists who want to ramp up the war effort and strike harder. This sucks for Putin because they are those who actually support the war, the vast majority is a depoliticized population who are on the ride because they see no choice, and then there are another minority who opposes the war but they don't count at all when it comes to decision making. For these Z imperialists, the Wagner is a symbol of military might, and strength. They liked when Prigozhin trash talked the incompetent fools in the MoD and the Army. They might be confused by Prigo's "anti-war" statement, but they can easily wave it away as some kind of propaganda bs to confuse Westerners.
Today I heard in one of the videos that 25K Musicians went to Belarus.
Also Denys Davydov said couple of days ago that Surovikin got arrested, because he was the one who incited Wagner to rise up. In the video here  >>/50514/ he just covered his ass. It sounds weird, but perhaps he gets to be sacrificial lamb, who has to take the blame.

Thinking about the pro-Ukrainian "Westerners" (in quotation marks for I mean Hungarians and other Eastern EU poeople too), the archetypes.
There are those who just think what media tells them, Ukraine fights for it's sovereignty and we have to support them with money and weapons. They have no idea where things could going, or what could be an endgame, what could end the war. Just go on and support. It's a good cause.
And there are another group who just like the Z imperialist radicals want to ramp up the war. Those who want more weapons, more support, NATO in the war, Ukraine in the NATO; the Hawks. I don't think many such can be found among the common people. Among decision makers, lobbists of various economic factors, and these factors themselves, who hope to profit, not just the war but their eyes on the future, after the war. Perhaps philosophers - like that Vlad Vexler -, political theorists and whatnot. Mostly people whom the hardships of war will never touch, but they wouldn't be hesitant to beat the stinging nettle with others' dicks.
What other types are there?

 >>/50588/
Most Liberals probably already left or know better than to say too much in public.
Yeah, I think a lot of these Russians are quite confused on what they should think now given what Prigozhin did.
The issue is that if you are an ultranationalist Russian then this war is really not going well for you and it's not being fought like it should be. In such a person's mind Russia would be the greatest power on earth yet they are achieving next to nothing at the moment and yet the Government still has not fully mobilised. I could see that would be frustrating.

I also heard that Surovikin was arrested, but his daughter came out and said he had not been. I have no idea. These things happen with high profile figures on both sides, if they are not seen for a few days then suddenly it's assumed they are dead or arrested.

 >>/50589/
You get all sorts supporting Ukraine.
Something that comes up and that people like Peter Zeihan talk about is the idea that this is only the beginning and that Russia plans to invade Poland and Romania next, then he adds more to this by saying that sense Russia has not gone so well in this invasion if they ever did fight NATO they would have to use Nukes. So therefore, this war is being fought to prevent a Nuclear war. Now, this of course has a few problems but one of them is that if Russia had to use nukes to defeat Poland after defeating Ukraine then why would they not use Nukes on Ukraine if they felt like Ukraine was going to win?

There are common people that want to escalate as well but they are usually either idiots that believe it when people say that giving Ukraine tanks and jets is going to somehow end the war or they are extremists who don't care if the war does escalate, far right people like my uncle.

 >>/50579/
Monarchies weren't very centralised though, plus all of your vassals has their own private army and would not be afraid to use them against you if you did something that they did not like.
Wait a minute...

 >>/50592/
> ultranationalist
I'm avoiding the word nationalist on purpose. They are patriotic, but not nationalist. It's hard to maintain nationalism on a non-self destructive manner in a multicultural society. They also came from Soviet background. Which doesn't mean they did not hate on minorities (for example they consciously excluded Turkic and Mongol minorities from the army, and it became an issue during the 80s when demographic started to shift), but it is more like the United States.
> this war is really not going well for you and it's not being fought like it should be. 
And Putin is pressured to escalate, or escalate faster. He wants to freeze the conflict, which is bad news for Ukraine, but the internal pressure might force him to try decisive steps. Which is bad news for Putin.
> In such a person's mind Russia would be the greatest power on earth yet they are achieving next to nothing
Coping mechanism already exists tho, for a long time now. Like "they keep the good guy down", "they need whole NATO to tie us down".
> hese things happen with high profile figures on both sides, if they are not seen for a few days then suddenly it's assumed they are dead or arrested.
Yeah, the informational warfare.

 >>/50593/
Yeah...

Listening WillyOAM talking how it would solve issues if a Western company would give pilots, mechanics, commanders with the Western equipment to Ukraine, since the training for such weapon systems like F-16 that Ukrainian crews can get is inadequate for the task they have to do when they are in the war.
Ofc this isn't his idea, he just mulls over it.
Essentially:
1. NATO pilots contracts with western company
2. NATO gives money to Ukraine
3. NATO gives fighter jets to Ukraine
4. Ukraine gives money to western company to get the pilots
NATO pilots, flying NATO fighters, payed by NATO money.
But essentially this could be done with anything. Just give Ukraine whole brigades. As long as the money are taken from Zelensky's hands by a private military contractor it's perfectly okay.
And remember, NATO isn't in war with Russia.
I have one question tho. Can I be the private military contractor who just there to receive the money? I promise I wouldn't sit on the monebags, but spend it quick so the wealth would find it's way back to the economy. I wouldn't even mind if I'd get ripped off.

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Prigozhin, master of disguise.

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He could be anybody, anywhere, at anytime.

 >>/50606/
Were some funny memes on DPA.
This also could be misinfo but FSB found fake papers in his house, I'm sure screenshots are on polru somewhere.
> #2
He looks like that bloke whomster is trolled by nido.

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It looks like the Ukrainians lost a CV-90, Ukraine is supposed to have received 50 of them so far.
People on the Internet seem to really like them, I mean, they are okay I guess(and probably better than anything Russia has but that's not saying much).

So far, this offensive has been ongoing for more than a month and nothing much has come of it, they have not reached the first line of defence. I don't think they have committed most of their forces and I think they are waiting for the first line to be reached and a weak point to be established before launching the main effort. But if they are unable to reach the line and create a weak point then the offensive may be dead before the main effort can start.

The Ukrainian attacks around Bahkmut seem to be more successful. Maybe this will draw Russian forces from the south.

 >>/50613/
What does it offer compared to other metal boxes with a gun?

 >>/50614/
I still believe they'll try to push till the NATO summit.
I also think with Wagner gone (if really gone) from the conflict Russia will try to freeze it, and won't mount major offensives. Perhaps some low level assaults with small units here and there.
> The Ukrainian attacks around Bahkmut seem to be more successful.
For now Russians give up some land that did not matter much (except they payed dearly for it), and around that area they lack in fortifications. I don't think Prigozhin's prediction will come true and they won't recapture everything in 1,5 month.

 >>/50615/
Why can't both sides sue for peace at this point? It's a smarter solution than to keep dragging this entire thing.

 >>/50621/
I'm mostly there with you. I'm interested in warfare and conflicts, and normally wouldn't mind shaking things up, but the situation is quite bad, and at the moment I also have things too precious to lose, I find the heat appalling.
Problem is that both sides think they can gain - or regain. Not to mention Ukraine has no will on her own, I would tend to agree with Orbán who says it would be peace if the United States wanted peace. But I think even the US govt is also pressured to go on with the war - and they don't just see an opportunity to weaken Russia's position, and strengthen their own.
There is some balance of the will. Both in Russia and Ukraine the West there are those who want to be cautious and freeze the war because on both sides they think the other will tire out on the long term. But on both sides there are those who want to escalate. In Russia they are the Z imperialists, but they are mostly bydlo, in the west there are investors who bought up Ukraine and will see no returns until the thing isn't finished, and they want to finish it quick (all these ventures are financed by loans, so they can lose a lot) with securing a win for Ukraine.
Problem with escalation it can escalate us right into the war, and it will hit just a little bit too close to home for my taste.
I'm not much of a humanitarian, still I can empathize with those who are suffering.

I wanted to write something today, but had to shut down my comp. before I could finished it...
We touched that scenario when NATO would move into Ukraine and establish a security zone somewhere in the western corner of Ukraine. I believe another scenario exists, nearby, but involves a different country.
Hearing the news that Wagner moves to Belarus, Poland and Lithuania started to moan that Wagner relocated for the intend to cut off the corridor between the two country never mind that the corridor is between Kaliningrad and Belarus, where Lithuania did held off the traffic.. Gallant Germany calmed them and said they are ready to move a brigade there.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/06/29/latvia-lithuania-poland-concerned-about-risk-of-wagner-serial-killers-in-neighbouring-bela
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/baltic-states-call-nato-increase-security-with-wagner-belarus-2023-06-27/
Note 1: Belarus technically still is a sovereign, independent country.
Note 2: since the start of the war NATO builds up forces in Central Europe and the Baltics.
So the other scenario: what if the cause and effect are the other way around, and relocating Wagner to Belarus - as well as moving nukes there as well - is a reaction to the NATO buildup?
What if NATO plans and invasion against Belarus? Or perhaps a riot which they would inflate into an "uprising", a "revolution" - a Maidan - which they would support with troops.
And even if this plan never bears fruit, it could serve as a distraction, could keep some amount of Russian forces occupied in Belarus, essentially doomed to idleness.

In the morning I read an article on Al Jazeera, where Stoltenberg acknowledged that Wagner is in Belarus, and said "not many". Well "not many" is a relative term. Less than half can described as "not many" to be honest. In same article Lukashenko was quoted talking about "camps" plural.
I can't find that article (don't really want to to be honest), but here's another one claiming noone from Wagner is in Belarus yet, still in their Anthill where they were. What is  this hide and seek?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/7/russias-wagner-fighters-have-not-visited-belarus-barracks-minsk

 >>/50621/
It's not in the interest of either side.

Ukraine is not going to accept Russian territorial demands and Russia is not going to give up what it has taken. Likewise Ukraine is not going to accept any demands Russia wants to impose on their military and Russia is not going to allow the Ukrainian military to continue building up like it is.

A ceasefire might be arranged but that does not solve any of these issues so hostilities would break out later on again anyway, both sides would simply use the ceasefire to give them time to build up strength.
At best we could get a situation like in North Korea where the ceasefire becomes the de facto status quo but that might be wishing for too much in this situation.

Hmmm. Weeb Union says both Ukrainian and Russian sources mentioned attacks from Belarus into Chernigov oblast.

 >>/50639/
I have not seen that mentioned anywhere.

Rheinmetall is building a factory in Ukraine.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/business/rheinmetall-german-tank-factory-ukraine/index.html

There was talk about it months ago and they were saying that the factory would be building panthers which I thought was ridiculous.
Well anyway.

> Rheinmetall will open an armored vehicle plant in Ukraine within the next 12 weeks, shrugging off concerns other Western defense companies reportedly have about building a presence in the country while it is at war with Russia.

> Germany’s biggest arms maker will also train Ukrainians to maintain the tanks and other armored vehicles made in the factory, which will be located in the western part of the country, CEO Armin Papperger told CNN in an exclusive interview on Thursday.

> “[Ukrainians] have to help themselves — if they always have to wait [for] Europeans or Americans [to] help them over the next 10 or 20 years… that is not possible,” he said.

> The company told the Rheinische Post newspaper earlier this year that it hoped to open a €200 million ($218 million) battle tank factory on Ukrainian soil, capable of producing about 400 tanks a year.

> Papperger said on Thursday that factory workers would build and repair Rheinmetall’s Fuchs armored personnel carrier — named after the German word for fox — under license in the facility. 


So they are definitely building Fuchs and they say that Ukrainians will be trained to maintain 'tanks and other armored(sic) vehicles' but I don't know if that means Panthers or if that actually means tanks at all and is not just the article assuming or generalising. Or ti could eb that Fuchs prduction will start in 12 weeks, and other more complicated vehicles will follow.

As for the vulnerability of the factory, the CEO of Rhinmetall thinks it will be able to be protected.

The Fuchs is just an 6x6 APC that can optionally be armed with a an MG weapons station(with two MG3s, not even 50.cals), it's not anything special and they can still easily get such vehicles from western allies and even from us(Australia).
They need tanks and IFVs, and even if this factory does produce though how many and how quickly they will do so is another matter.

Something else interesting.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/07/10/ukraine-nato-summit/

NATO dropped the Membership Action Plan for Ukrainian admission to NATO meaning that the time it will take for Ukraine to join is now shortened.

Additionally in this article, Erdogan said this about letting Sweden into NATO.

> “First, open the way to Turkey’s membership of the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland,” Erdogan told Turkish television before leaving for Vilnius.

 >>/50650/
That article is hilarious.
What is Membership Action Plan?
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37356.htm
> a NATO programme of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance.
> Participation in the MAP does not prejudge any decision by the Alliance on future membership.
Countries wish to join don't have to participate, it's not a precondition, it just helps them prepare, it's kinda mentorship. So in case of Ukraine, it's a big nothing. And to be honest from all the countries that joined NATO, Ukraine is probably the most prepared, has lotsa troops with combat XP, and working knowledge on NATO doctrines, training, strategy, tactics, and equipment.
> President Volodymyr Zelensky had voiced hope that Tuesday’s NATO summit in Vilnius would provide a “clear signal” that Kyiv could join the alliance once its war with Russia is over.
Well it's a clear signal they won't join as long as the war is on. But as far as I know one of the conditions is that the candidate shouldn't have territorial disputes. Hungary had to confirm over 9000 times that we don't want any clay back, we had to waive our claim (again)! So if the war ends with Russia having some clay (like Crimea), Ukraine has to renounce that clay.
Well we won't face WWIII and nuclear holocaust for Ukraine joining NATO. I'm sure other opportunities will occur so we can hope.
> Kyiv said its troops captured key heights around the eastern city of Bakhmut.
> they had established fire control over the “entrances, exits and movement of the enemy around the city.
Major success they literelly encircled Bakhmu!
> Russian shelling [...] killed four people,
> They hit a humanitarian aid delivery spot in a residential area
Evil Russians are war criminals against.
> Cluster Concerns
> Britain [...] have signed an agreement banning the production, storage, sale and use of cluster bombs
> but Ukrainian forces were “running out of ammunition.”
> Biden and Sunak were “on the same page
Well if they are running out of ammunition I understand why Sunak can dismiss human rights groups claims that they
> pose a danger to civilian populations long after they are deployed.
You see, Bernd, it's a regrettable necessity.
> Turkey using extortion
I really laffed at this. I don't think they really want to join to EU at this point. I dunno. It's a funny rap on the nose.

Well summit starts tomorrow I think. If this is the warm up, then we're gonna get more entertainment.

 >>/50649/
It will be a prime target for Russian rockets. We can consider it testing waters. If it survives, it could be feasible to set up more.
> will be located in the western part of the country
They could build it under the Carpathians. I bet they have such factories already, perhaps they'll repurpose one.
> They need tanks and IFVs
I dunno they lost lotsa battle taxis. Those need to be replaced. And it's not like they do much armoured assaults, when these columns are grouping they are struck by the Russians.

"Historic moment..." Sweden is literelly NATO now.
Erdog agrees on forwarding the membership bid to Turkish Parliament. And perhaps even back it. They can sit on it for months... But at least can announce the great result, giving something for the news and masses. Now one thing left: telling off to Ukraine quietly, because yesterday's news is unofficial, it is not the result of the summit yet.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/turkeys-erdogan-agrees-to-back-swedish-nato-bid-stoltenberg

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This one is funny. Biden offering a hand only to Orbán.
I think they all met outside, so not offering to everbody else can be explained with that. Perhaps he thought he did not meet with Orbán yet? Did he mistake him with someone else in his dementia? Or they really did not meet before? It's a mystery.
Also:
> hide the pain Sunak
That smile is a bit forced.

 >>/50670/
Hungary is the weakest link in the alliance so it makes sense that he would do that. I don't think there is really anybody else who Biden would need to win over other than Erdogan.

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The Russians probably captured a Bradley.
I say probably because while they are standing there and have the engine running it might be stuck or maybe they won't be able to get it back past the battlefield to their own bases, it's not 100%.

 >>/50671/
> Hungary is the weakest link in the alliance
How? Hungary is very committed to NATO.
We talk a lot about how NATO supports Ukraine, but all support is bipartisan (I'm not sure I'm using the correct term here) agreements, countries commit individually, and NATO as a whole doesn't. I think US uses NATO as a way to pressure member states to support Ukraine.

 >>/50673/
Yes Hungary fulfils all of her NATO obligations but she is also probably the least committed to supporting Ukraine out of all NATO members, hence why she is the weakest link in the alliance and why Biden would make a point of being polite to them.

 >>/50674/
Not just fulfills, has interest to stay in NATO. All our enemies are the neighbours (and noone else) who are also in NATO (well, except Austria and Serbia). And as long as everyone is in, peace is almost guaranteed.

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Listening press conference with Stolten, and Zelensky, and some woman on Al Jazeera. It's not really interesting, I missed the beginning, not sure how much. Maybe they told everything already.

This is noteworthy, training F-16 pilots in Romania:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/ukraine-f-16-fighter-pilot-training-to-start-soon-in-romania

And some other titles I see on the front page.
North Korea long range ballistic missile test, 12th this year.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/north-korea-fires-unidentified-ballistic-missile-south-korea
And China launches "first methane-fuelled space rocket", I dunno about the performance and real significance, but as they put it, it seems it's kinda mini space race among space agencies.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/china-launches-worlds-first-methane-fuelled-space-rocket

Saw picrel on polru, laffed a bit.
We could say they cornered Putin to make a move that forced Finland and Sweden into NATO. And supposedly Ukraine will join too - but that's in the future, so who knows it'll actually happen or not. In any way NATO won two more countries, forming a unified bastion from all Scandinavia.

Russian bloke (Vyacheslav Matuzov, former diplomat) is interviewed by Al Jazeera (same live broadcast), and he says it's no problem for Russia, that Finland and Sweden are NATO now, because they are part of the Western block already, they were considered as any NATO country already.

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This is the unit that captured the Bradley. They are apparently volunteers that met through some kind of internet group, one of them brought a Dakimakura with him to the front.

Truly they are strong.

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NADOH news, what happened on July 11, on the first day of Nadoh summit?
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_217059.htm
1. bringing Ukraine closer to NATO:
 - arm Ukraine with western weapons;
 - rebuild Ukrainian security and defence sector;
 - covering needs: fuel, demining equipment, medical supplies.
Wasn't most of their fuel coming from Russia? I think so. Yeah, they have problems with mines, that is a fresh lesson from the offensive.
2. new NADOH-Ukraine council
Seems like symbolic gesture, but perhaps one more step in the cooperation of NATO and Ukraine as a whole.
3. Agreed on Ukraine becoming member in the future.
4. Agreed on removing the Membership Action Plan for Ukraine.
5. beef up NADOH
 - 300K troop at high readiness (including air and naval combat power)
 - boosting armament production (warehouses are empty, they can barely produce couple thousand 155 mm shells per month, when Ukraine shoots thousands on daily basis)
 - enhance interoperability - standardization, not just equipment but leading practices and such so all the foreign crews can work better together I think, no more Karánsebes
 - minumum 2% of GDP for each member on defence - this is old news actually, even Trump banged on this gate
Interesting stance on China. While they named the two main threat Russia and terrorism, they don't consider China as adversary. They are clearly careful not to push China towards Russia. But this also allows China to help Russia outplay sanctions, or give them technically non-lethal help liberally.

 >>/50678/
They are very cool.

 >>/50672/
I skipped this post.
Yeah, just because they could make a video, it doesn't mean it's secured.

Stoltenberg summing the summit:
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=S_8GTNkPxFM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=S_8GTNkPxFM
Transcript is here:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_217104.htm
> as Ukraine continues to liberate territory we'll stand by them for as long as it takes
No particularities how this will go. But NATO will continue to make Ukraine more NATO compatible, so more equipment will be delivered, no question about it.
> change the membership path from two steps process to one step process
Kek.
> deter future aggression from Russia, after the war ends
Will the war end? How it will end? When? Too many questions to consider the long time guarantees and assistance concrete. So as for now it's basically promises.
He also talks about the ties between NATO and other allies in the indo-pacific, the danger of China and North Korea.

That journalisette from Politico has a huge schnoz. Almost puts Abby to shame. But she raised a good point. Ukraine NATO membership could be used as bargaining chip against Russia at the table.
In his reply Stoltenberg mentions long range cruise missiles, more armored vehicles, more advanced AA systems, training of F-16 pilots. No surprises there. Btw he clears the question with: they give support so Ukraine can take more land, because more land taken, the better will be Ukrain's position at the negotiating table, and NATO doesn't negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.
Another bloke asks about peacekeeping mission, I assume it would be about some kind of intervention or establishing a security zone in Ukraine.
Stoltenberg sidesteps saying it's wrong to speculate about the future after the war, war has to be ended first. Well, then speculate on Ukraine's NATO membership is wrong...?

The rest isn't really interesting.

Australia is sending 30 Bushmasters to Ukraine, which will give a total of 120 Bushmasters that will have been sent to Ukraine.

 >>/50683/
How many could still be in service? How many lost for good? for bad, for ugly

 >>/50684/
Not sure, I think I have seen about 10 damaged or destroyed but that's probably not all of them.

I have not seen any recently, so maybe the units that use them are not engaged in much combat.

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A Bradley after being hit by a tank.

Couple days before Wagner weren't even in Belarus, now they are training troops there.
> Ukrainian president says monitoring security situation in Belarus where Wagner fighters are training Belarusian troops.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/15/zelenskyy-says-russia-investing-everything-to-stop-ukraine-push

 >>/50694/
It's fore better ventilation. During the summer it gets stuffy in there.
Is there an outward opening on the other side?

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Ongoing Russian offensive is on the Lugansk front, Kreminna->Lyman direction. DPA said Russian MoD announced it too.
They have results. Weirdly enough liveuamap shows more, but even the starting situation is different than on DeepState's map.

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Was thinking about what Putin said in late March/early April as they left northern Ukraine. About the demilitarization of Ukraine. I'd probably need actual quote, but.
So he said something that they finished the first stage of the special military operation, they successfully disarmed Ukraine or at least reduced her military capabilities.
But even before that Moscow publicized that their goals are "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.
This is a very Clausewitzian stance. He wrote that the aim of the war is to disarm the enemy. "Disarming" not just means taking the weapons away, since a nation's/state's/country's weapon is the army itself, so basically destroying the army - both the living and material component - is the process of disarming.

Picrel was taken from here which I have not read. But perhaps I should, the title is promising.
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2021/Erickson-Clausewitzs-Perspective/

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Russians now launched an offensive at Kupiansk. That's that northernmost corner.
It would make sense to return to the Oskil river, since it's a better position to defend, plus, if they want Lyman that line would secure the town from the north, so it could serve as a hub for further offensive, and not just a bulge surrounded by the enemy. That is if they manage to capture it. With the current rate of gaining ground this could take a while.
It also makes sense attacking here in the north from logistical point of view. Supplying the forces in Kherson and Zaporozhia on those slim lines which are attacked constantly, must be a pain in the ass. Even for the defensive forces holding the lines. Now cram an attacking force there too, and it's a sure hit for every shell the AFU fires. But here in the north the supply line is short, comes from different directions, air cover is sure.

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New York Times article from 4 days ago offers numbers on the losses.
The subtitle and the elaboration of it is a bit misleading. It says:
> Early in the counteroffensive, Ukraine lost as much as 20 percent of its weapons and armor. The rate dropped as the campaign slowed and commanders shifted tactics.
and
> In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed
It's not clear if it's about the equipment of all the units designated for the offensive (eg. 20% of the 12 brigade), or about the units actively participating in those attacks (like the 47th mechanized, the 35th marine, the 4th tank brigades, and the others), or the actual units on the field (the companies and battalions).
I see some weird generalizations in the article too:
> the Ukrainians have so far taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.
5 miles? In depth? Where? They attack on several points. There is only 60 miles till the sea? Or 60 miles is enough? Ok, by the end they say at Velike Novosilka.
Further down in the article some solid numbers are offered.
Bradleys:
>  47th Mechanized Brigade, [...] was set to receive 99 Bradleys
> it has visually confirmed, show that 28 of those Bradleys have been abandoned, damaged or destroyed
> nearly one-third of the original vehicles have been lost — although all but seven of them were blown up at one battleground
Tanks:
> The Oryx data show that only 24 tanks were lost for the entire month of June
> Ten of them were German-made Leopard tanks and mine-clearers,
> they were lost in battle with Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, one of the three units deployed early in the counteroffensive, and which was slated to receive 32 Leopards 
> the brigade lost 30 percent of the Leopards it was given — all but two of them in the first week of fighting,
Link:
https://web.archive.org/web/20230718232843/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html

 >>/50704/
Youtubers I watch say Ukrainians said Russians have 100K+ grouping on the Lugansk front.

 >>/50704/
It might also force the Ukrainians to move reserves away from their offensive and send them to stop this Russian offensive.

Or maybe the Russians have started it because the Ukrainian offensive diverted resources in the first place.

 >>/50710/
Aforementioned youtubers said one of the 12 brigades was moved to the north. NWE supposed it's possible they were moved because for the losses they can't continue the offensive but can be used in defense. Or something.

EU will give €20 billion in the next four years to Ukraine as defense support. The article avoids the topic successfully, but the question offers itself: do Brussels believe the war will take at least that long? This doesn't sound like a "rebuild fund", this is specifically for arms and ammunition.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-20-billion-fund-stock-ukraine-military-russia-war/

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Considerable results on the Lugansk front near Svatove by the Russians. It's still small, but was achieved within days.
On July 17 that part of the front run straight, then on the 18th Russian crossed the Zherebets river running N-S at Karmazynivka, and two days pause came. From 21st they attack and push on, gaining more grounds.
Can they achieve a breakthrough?

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From the valley of the Zherebets Russians entered a wooded area they are here now. Beyond that open fields come with the usual tree lines, and small patches of forests along a ridge line Russians should reach asap if they want to achieve anything. From there, about the region from Novoserhivka to Chernovi Stav they could launch attacks in all directions all around, like they did at Popasna.
The problem I see is that no roads leading there from the east. There is one to a bit north at Raihorodka, and to a bit south at Makiivka, but right at where the Russians attack. So from the aforementioned grouping point they have to strike one of the directions, to north or south - or both -, to acquire those roads, and attack at the end of those roads at Raihorodka or Makiivka at the same time. That could force the Ukrainians to retreat from those positions and establish a lifeline into the freshly created bulge.
And then develop the breakthrough on.
This ought to be interesting.

Here's DPA on the attack at Karmazynivka.
https://odysee.com/@DefensePoliticsAsia:7/ukr-lines-collapsed-at-karmazynivka:1
I think he overhypes this. I bet AFU will hold the line at the high ground of the ridge.

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The chief problem for the Ukrainians what I see, is that they don't really have units to counterattack with to halt Russian advance then stabilize the front.
It seems the Russians attacked between a territorial defense brigade and a mechanized one. And then they have an ongoing offensive both to the north and south, at Kupiansk, and Kreminna. So Ukrainian units there are tied down with the defense and they might not have units to spare. They'll send some for sure. Because they have to some. But any major reinforcement has to come elsewhere.
AFU has uncommitted brigades which was prepared for the spring/summer offensive. Sending them could be an answer. They can be there relatively quick, but large columns on the move can be struck, and Russia has the tools to do that. Their route have to be covered as much as possible, which might distract units from other tasks.

That is if this deployment map is reliable at all.

 >>/50733/
One more thought. AFU should have local reserve both north and south of here. Those should be alerted first, and rotated out and sent back when some other force arrives to fill the gap.

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Further advancements for the Russian army, from Makiivka to Raihorodka, but especially at the latter.
I assume Ukrainians are withdrawing to form a line at the ridge. I further assume they already moved some units there and digging in already. But from the situation, they don't really have pre-constructed, fortified positions here as they had at near Bakhmut. Since the conflict started back in 2014-2016 right at the secessionist controlled areas they had a massive fortification project, went for years. This place is a bit further out, and also was captured by Russia last year, who also did not build much of anything there, and then gave up the territory quick. So from all the places here could be a more mobile front.
Liveuamap hasn't updated yet, also went damage control and showing results at Bakhmut and Velike Novosilka.
ISW notes advancement from yesterday. In their article they pin the information that it comes from Russian milbloggers. Tomorrow we'll see what ISW writes about today.

According to Oryk, Ukraine has lost 47 Bradleys.

20 Destroyed, 21 damaged and 6 damaged and abandoned.

Ukraine is meant to have about 100 of them and according to the leaks(which may not be up to date) they are all in one unit so that one unit will have suffered at lost at least 50% of it's IFVs.

There are no mentions of Marder or Stryker losses which are meant to be in other earmarked brigades. So they must still be held in reserve.

 >>/50756/
The 47th Mech. Brigade has them. And that's the visually confirmed. So the actual loss is higher a bit. Also the damaged and abandoned might be salvaged.

Weeb Union says the main Ukrainian offensive started at Orikhov and Velike Novosilka. He cites western sources.

 >>/50757/
True, but they won't take further part in this offensive until they are fixed.

However, the US did send more Bradleys not long ago and so they could probably be used to replace lost vehicles if the crews are still alive.

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Prez Mohamed Bazoum of Niger is getting couped.
Small group from the army, the Presidential Guard itself couped him up into house arrest.
God Save the Prez Hassoumi Massaoudou!
International reaction (by ECOWAS, EU, and US):
> it's problematic
> it's unconstitutional
> release the Prez
Will Niger go on Mali way? Perhaps they also invite Wagner to do what Wagner does? Do Niger has their problem with ISIL and AL Qaeda?
The countries in Sahel is getting restless. Is this some weird Sahel Spring? What's up with Chad these days?
https://www.watchdoguganda.com/news/20230727/157274/niger-coup-understanding-the-proliferation-of-rebellions-and-civil-wars-in-africa.html
https://guardian.ng/news/detained-niger-president-defiant-after-coup-bid/

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It looks like Russian anti-tank ditches actually do their job. Well I guess the only way to find out was to try.

 >>/50763/
Hahahahaha.
So they have to bridge it somehow or push dirt in it. As many places as they can to avoid creating choke points.
Apparently Ukrainians gathered about 100 armored vehicles (with tanks) for yesterday's today's main offensive, failed, then they gathered a bunch again. At Robotine (Orihiv-Tokmak).

Cool interview with an US veteran. He has points worth considering.
He believes about 4-5 major battles are needed to end the war, the first one was Bakhmut, and the next in line will have to be bigger.
He also says cluster munitions will be taken apart and used in IDEs spread by drones.
https://odysee.com/@RealReporter:e/u.s.-veteran-predicts-end-of-russia:6

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 >>/50762/
Yeah, it's probably done.

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The Russians captured an AMX 10. I'm still not sure what happened with the Bradley.

 >>/50767/
I have heard that it would be used for that too, however there is already footage of it being used as artillery.

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The front is stabilizing at Svatove (the "Karmazynivka breakthrough"). Maybe this will change, but I think Ukrainians had ample time to reinforce the front, and that's it for now.

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 >>/50762/
 >>/50768/
New turbofolk just dropped.

 >>/50774/
First one is a bit too e-lack-tronic for me. The other two is better.

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The Russian's captured a CV 90 this time, maybe. We will have to wait for images like  >>/50770/ to be sure.

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They released a video of the CV 90, it was hit by an RPG apparently.

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Okay, I am fairly sure it was captured now.

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Great banter: Ukraine calls it "successful"

 >>/50782/
Next photo: gypsies are butchering it with a hacksaw and selling the parts at recycling center.

Navalny got 19 years of prison. Maybe he can sign up with Wagner when they recruit in prisons again.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/4/russian-court-hands-jailed-alexey-navalny-new-19-year-prison-sentence

Oh no! Deadline ECOWAS gave to the coupist to restore the Prez in his office expired days ago! What's gonna happen! NOTHING
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/ecowas-calls-for-second-emergency-summit-to-discuss-niger-coup

Btw Wagner made a movie about their african tour too. The title is Turist:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/ecowas-calls-for-second-emergency-summit-to-discuss-niger-coup
https://youtube.com/watch?v=PSsMOJCT6PE
Need to get subtitles somewhere somehow.

 >>/50805/
Nigeria is saying they can contribute half of a 25,000 ECOWAS intervention force.
Mali and Burkina Faso are also saying they will stand by Niger and support them against any such intervention.

Things might be heating up for the great Niger-Nigeria war.

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Oh, what a smart man!
I'm sorry, since no twitter it's a screenshot from WillyOAM's vid, and it has hardcoded captions.
> war will become a tool for achieving political goals
This was the case since forever. And war is nothing more, just a tool to achieve political goals.
> it is possible to invade another country, occupy a part of it, organize a massacre there, and establish the right of force on this territory with the tacit consent of the world
The US does this since WWII on regular basis. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union who did the same. This is nothing new or unheard of.
But this sounds very good for Western intelligentsia who can look smart and concerned at the same time as they draw their eyebrows together, nodding, and humming, while staring with empty eyes.
He is this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykhailo_Podolyak
> Ukrainian politician, journalist and negotiator, serving as the adviser to the head of Office of the President of Ukraine
I mean yeah, he probably does what he has to.

 >>/50807/
Nigeria is talking a lot.

 >>/50808/
Also:
> emergency membership
Still trying to drag NATO into war and make WWIII. Ofc, from their viewpoint: who cares.

 >>/50807/
To be honest if the world allowed ECOWAS to intervene then war will become a tool for achieving political goals. It will become clear to everyone: it is possible to invade another country, occupy a part of it, organize a massacre there, and establish the right of force on this territory with the tacit consent of the world.

 >>/50808/
 >>/50820/
It's no different than normal.

Though ECOWAS acting in unison like that to achieve a geopolitical goal would be interesting. 
It might be the start of an African block.

 >>/50821/
Indeed. It just can be told on every occasion when a war looms.

ECOWAS country leaders are just shaking in their boots they are next in line to putsched.
I would be laffed if they assembled an army, and the officers of that army decided they coup the govts.